↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 今日三大指数集体走弱，截至收盘，上证指数跌0.51%，收报3807.29，深证成指跌1.23%，创业板指跌2.23%，北证50跌2.1%。沪深京三市全天成 交额21521亿元，较上日缩量3111亿元。全市场超4000只个股下跌。 板块题材上，贵金属、房地产、影视院线、银行、电池板块涨幅居前；光刻机、半导体、消费电子、医疗服务板块跌幅居前。今日算力板块集体大 跌，让我们一起来看看发生了什么。 01 算力板块持续调整！ 今日科技算力板块持续调整，工业富联大跌超5%，中芯国际大跌超10%，中际旭创回调近3%、胜宏科技跌超5%。 有网友调侃，上述科技公司杀跌是"一句老登惹的祸"。 9月5日，一位买方大佬就市场对中际旭创2027年的利润预测超过250亿发文点评，他灵魂发问一个零部件制造业公司何以达到这么高的年利润，并 质疑线性外推的合理性。 朋友说基于两点，其一产能已经投放，到2027年就有供给出来，这一点基本确认；其二企业说了不降价，所以这部分供给形成收入，按照现有产能紧缺阶段的毛利率、 净利率假设（现在净利率大致30%，立讯差不多是5%），最终EXCEL表里就得出了250亿的净 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： st焦化 来源：雪球 提到股市分析，很多人会觉得满是复杂公式和专业术语，望而却步。其实股市涨跌有规律，投资决策有方法。今天，我们就用生活化的例子带你看 懂经济周期与资产配置的底层逻辑，形成一套小白投资者都能使用的投资策略。 一、长期看基本面，短期别被 "狗" 带偏 很多人炒股时会困惑：明明公司业绩好，股价却不涨；有时公司没动静，股价却疯涨。用一个通俗的 "遛狗理论" 解开了这个谜题 ——股价和公司 基本面的关系，就像人和狗散步： 长期看，人和狗的方向一定一致（股价最终会回归基本面）； 短期看，狗会到处乱跑：一会儿冲到前面，一会儿落在后面（股价会因为情绪、资金等因素偏离基本面）。 但无论狗跑多远，拴狗的绳子不会断（长期基本面会拉回股价）。 别让 "短期波动" 毁掉长期判断 虽然长期规律有效，但短期的 "狗跑太快" 或 "跑太慢"，很容易让人慌了神。比如 2008 年有位投资者，明明判断对了 "黄金长期会涨"，却因为短 期波动太大，账户爆仓被迫离场，结果后来黄金真的涨了一倍 ——看对 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 黑貔貅俱乐部 来源：雪球 一、为何当下聚焦美国衰退交易？ 2022年以来，美国经济就行走在"三高"风险交织的钢丝上：联邦基金利率最高维持在5.25%-5.5% 的16 年高位，当下4%以上高利率已持续几年时 间；美国联邦政府债务突破 37万亿美元，利息支出占财政收入比重升至15%以上（为 1998 年以来最高）；核心 PCE 同比仍稳定在 3.1%，远超美 联储 2% 的目标。这种"高利率、高债务、高通胀"的三重压力，正在不断侵蚀经济韧性 ——8 月非农就业新增 2.2万人远不及预期，制造业 PMI 连 续低于50荣枯线，房地产市场成屋销售同比明显走弱，经济降温信号愈发清晰。 历史经验告诉我们，"三高"组合往往是资产泡沫破裂的前兆：1980年代储贷危机、2000 年互联网泡沫、2008 年次贷危机，均诞生于利率快速抬 升、债务杠杆高企与通胀黏性并存的环境。而历史上"衰退交易"的经验正是穿透市场迷雾的"导航仪"—— 它能帮助我们提前识别资产价格的转向 信号，在经济从"降温"向"衰退 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current bull market is driven by five key factors, which include valuation recovery, liquidity premium, external capital inflow, policy dividends, and fundamental recovery [5][6][24]. - Valuation recovery is identified as the starting point of the market rally, with the market experiencing a significant decline from 2021 to 2024, reaching historical lows in September 2024 [9][10][11]. - The liquidity premium is driven by declining interest rates, which have fallen from 3.88% in early 2018 to 1.60% by early 2025, leading to a shift in capital towards equity assets as traditional investment avenues like real estate weaken [12][14][15][17]. Group 2 - External capital inflow is influenced by the Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle starting September 2024, which is expected to lower rates further, making emerging markets like China more attractive for international investors [18][19][20]. - Policy dividends have been established through a series of regulatory measures aimed at improving market quality, such as reducing transaction taxes and encouraging dividends, which are expected to enhance long-term investment attributes [21][22][23]. - Fundamental recovery is crucial for the sustainability of the bull market, with signs of economic recovery and industry upgrades in sectors like hard technology, new energy, and pharmaceuticals, indicating potential for future growth [24][25][26][27]. Group 3 - The market outlook suggests that the current valuation level is around 60 degrees, nearing the end of the valuation recovery phase, with future performance relying more on earnings realization and market sentiment [28][29]. - Interest rates are at historical lows, and the ongoing low-rate environment is expected to continue driving capital reallocation towards equities [30]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic fundamentals, as the market is still in a recovery phase, and effective data validation is needed to support the ongoing bullish sentiment [32][33].

以下文章来源于郭施亮 ，作者郭施亮 郭施亮 . 财经评论员、专栏作家，2013年度搜狐最佳行业自媒体人。香港大公财经特约评论员、每经智库专栏作家，并多次受邀广东省人民政府发展研究中心等权 威机构撰写多篇学术文章。其作品刊登于香港文汇报、新华社《瞭望》、人民日报海外版等数十家权威报刊。 与黄金相比 ， A股的牛市才刚刚开始 ， 目前还没有完全摆脱掉2007年6124点和2015年5178点的连线阻力位置 。 在美联储即将步入新一轮降息周期的背景下 ， 黄金 、 股市也会从中受益 。 然而 ， 到底是黄金率先突破4000美元还是A股率先突破4000点 ？ 从上涨空间来看 ， 黄金价格从3650美元涨至4000美元 ， 需要继续上涨约10%的空间 ， 背后需要更大的利好因素才能够为黄金牛市继续提速 。 根据9月5日上证指数的收盘点位3812点计算 ， 上证指数涨至4000点 ， 需要再涨188点 ， 约为5%的上涨空间 。 与黄金相比 ， A股只需 要继续上涨5% ， 就可以实现4000点的上涨目标了 。 黄金要想达成4000美元的目标位置 ， 难度会大于A股市场 。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 二鸟说 来源：雪球 相信体系 ， 行稳致远 ， 科学合理的投资规划能帮我们绘制靓丽的净值曲线 近期 ， 上证指数创下10年历史新高 ， 引来广泛关注 ， 投资者情绪同步升温 。 但也有理性的投资者观察到 ， 部分宽基指数估值处于中高温度 带 ， 持续性上涨积蓄的风险也不容忽视 。 01 整体有利的市场环境 近年来 ， 结构性行情主导A股市场 ， 真正大幅普涨的行情较少 。 市场冷热分化加剧 ， 机遇与挑战并存 。 沪深两市总成交额从1年前熊市底部 的不足5000亿 ， 逐步跃升至3万亿附近 。 流动性充裕使得大部分行业处于慢牛行情中 。 市场风险偏好提高 ， 融资交易活跃 ， 也使得部分题 材板块走出快牛行情 。 图1 ： 近一年市场成交额从五千亿跃升至3万亿 第二 、 低利率环境下的资产荒 。 近期 ， 十年期国债收益率跌破2% ， 货币基金7日年化收益率跌破1.5% ， 固收资产无法提供令人满意的收 益 ， 向权益市场要收益是大势所趋 。 固收+ 、 银行理财 、 保险资金持 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.38% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.61%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.84% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 114.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] CPO Sector - The CPO sector continued to adjust significantly, with major companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng seeing declines of over 9%, with trading volumes of 270.98 billion yuan and 248.73 billion yuan respectively [4] AI Computing Power Sector - The AI computing power sector has experienced significant volatility after a rapid increase, with many stocks now at high valuations; for instance, Cambrian Technology and Qingyun Technology have price-to-book ratios exceeding 70 times [6] - Fund managers noted that the rapid price increases led to profit-taking, resulting in a short-term sell-off as new capital was insufficient to sustain further price rises [6] - Despite the volatility, several institutions remain optimistic about the AI computing power sector, citing breakthroughs in domestic chip manufacturing and increasing investments from internet giants and government entities [7] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector saw a strong performance, with companies like Mingzhi Electric and Sanhua Intelligent Control hitting their daily price limits [9] - Recent developments in the robotics industry, including Tesla's advancements in humanoid robots and significant contracts signed by companies like UBTECH, indicate a growing market acceptance and potential for industrialization [11] Satellite Internet Sector - The satellite internet sector experienced a surge, particularly for China Unicom, which saw its stock rise over 5% following the issuance of a satellite mobile communication business license [15] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's support for satellite communication is expected to drive growth in the commercial space industry, with significant opportunities in satellite platform manufacturing and low-orbit satellite internet [15]

Group 1 - The article discusses the allure and misconceptions of market timing versus systematic investment strategies like dollar-cost averaging [4][5] - It highlights that most investors lack the ability to consistently time the market effectively, making long-term investment strategies more reliable [5][12] - The article presents a simulation of systematic investment in the CSI 300 index, showing varying returns based on different investment strategies over a 20.3-year period [6][8] Group 2 - The simulation results indicate that investing at the opening price yielded a total return of 51.77%, while the highest price, lowest price, and closing price strategies yielded 43.56%, 59.23%, and 50.49% respectively [7][8] - The average annual compound returns for these strategies were 2.08%, 1.80%, 2.32%, and 2.03% respectively, demonstrating that even the best timing strategies do not significantly outperform systematic investment [8][10] - The article concludes that while precise timing can enhance returns, its impact on long-term investment success is limited, reinforcing the value of a long-term investment approach [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of small-cap stocks and bank stocks in the A-share market, emphasizing the short-term gains in micro-cap and concept stocks while bank stocks have seen declines, highlighting a disconnect between market sentiment and fundamentals [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Since July 2025, the ChiNext and STAR Market indices have risen approximately 30% in just two months, with some stocks increasing by 50-100%, while bank stocks have averaged a decline of about 10% [2]. - The article notes a peculiar trend where stocks with worsening fundamentals, such as liquor stocks, have rebounded significantly despite poor earnings, indicating a market behavior that often disregards fundamentals [2]. Investment Behavior - New investors are often swayed by short-term market movements, leading to a preference for high-volatility stocks that promise quick returns, which can result in losses when the market corrects [4][5]. - The article suggests that long-term investment in bank stocks requires a strong understanding and discipline, as many investors struggle to hold onto these stocks during downturns [3][4]. Valuation and Future Outlook - Bank stocks, particularly Agricultural Bank and China Merchants Bank, are highlighted as potential benchmarks for valuation, with Agricultural Bank's stock price nearing its net asset value, indicating a possible upward trend in valuation [6][10]. - The article identifies several city commercial banks, such as Chengdu Bank and Hangzhou Bank, as having strong fundamentals and potential for future growth, with current price-to-book ratios indicating they are undervalued [8][9]. Long-term Investment Strategy - The article advocates for a long-term investment strategy focused on banks with solid fundamentals, low valuations, and good growth potential, suggesting that investors should aim for annualized returns of 12-15% [9][10]. - It emphasizes the importance of selecting quality stocks based on fundamental analysis rather than short-term price movements, as this approach can lead to sustainable profits in the long run [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a case of insider trading involving Qitian Technology, highlighting the consequences faced by an individual who profited from confidential information regarding the company's stock issuance plans [2][15]. Group 1: Event Review - The incident traces back to early 2023 when Qitian Technology sought partners for a private placement [4]. - On April 15, 2024, discussions between key stakeholders led to an agreement for Qitian Technology to introduce a new major shareholder through a private placement [6]. - The insider information was deemed to have formed no later than April 15, 2024, and was publicly disclosed on July 26, 2024 [7]. Group 2: Insider Trading Details - On April 15, 2024, an individual overheard discussions about the private placement and subsequently bought shares of Qitian Technology [9]. - On April 29, 2024, the individual purchased 72,800 shares for approximately 303,395 yuan, which later resulted in a profit of 260,022.03 yuan as the stock price surged over 100% following the public announcement [10][12]. - The stock price increased from 4 yuan per share to a peak of 9.37 yuan per share within a week after the announcement [12]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - The Ningbo Securities Regulatory Bureau initiated an investigation into the insider trading activities of the individual [15]. - The individual argued that the information was overheard accidentally and claimed the profit calculation was incorrect, but the regulatory body upheld the findings and penalties [16][19]. - Ultimately, the individual was fined 800,000 yuan and had their illegal gains of 260,022.03 yuan confiscated [20].