Group 1 - The three major US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.17%, S&P 500 down 0.06%, and Nasdaq down 0.06% [2] - Micron Technology saw a significant increase of over 7%, contributing to a rise in semiconductor stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 1.15% [5][7] - Micron Technology's market capitalization surpassed $400 billion, and the company announced a $100 billion investment in a memory manufacturing complex, which will include up to four fabs and is expected to start production by 2030 [7] Group 2 - Speculation around the next Federal Reserve chair intensified, with Trump's comments suggesting that Kevin Walsh may become a leading candidate if Hassett resigns [10][11] - Current market expectations indicate a low probability of a rate cut in January, with a 5% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 95% chance of maintaining current rates [13] Group 3 - Precious metals experienced significant volatility, with gold and silver prices dropping over 1% and 6% respectively during trading, although losses narrowed by the end of the session [14][15] - Analysts believe that despite a potential slowdown in central bank gold purchases in 2025, speculative funds may drive gold prices higher, with a bullish outlook for 2026 where gold could average $4,538 per ounce [15]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential bullish trend in the A-share market by 2026, supported by factors such as low interest rates and the attractiveness of stock dividends compared to government bonds [5][6][10] - It highlights the concept of "asset scarcity," where capital is expected to flow into higher-yielding investments as traditional options like real estate and bank deposits lose their appeal [7][8] - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic focus on stimulating consumption and internal demand through asset appreciation rather than direct cash distribution [9][10] Group 2 - The article outlines four key investment strategies for navigating a bull market, applicable to both institutional and retail investors [11] - The first strategy is to embrace index ETFs, particularly the CSI 500, which represents a diversified selection of leading companies [12][13] - The second strategy stresses the importance of balanced asset allocation to mitigate risks associated with heavy concentration in specific stocks or sectors [14] - The third strategy advises investors to adopt a long-term perspective and avoid short-term trading, as retail investors typically lack advantages in quick market movements [15][16] - The fourth strategy suggests waiting for price corrections to find good entry points for investments, emphasizing the need for a positive mindset [17][19] Group 3 - The article identifies three key criteria for selecting high-quality companies in the high-end manufacturing sector: price increases, overseas expansion, and innovation [22][23] - It discusses the importance of evaluating both relative and absolute price metrics, including PE/PB ratios and historical performance, to determine good pricing [25][26] - The article categorizes leading manufacturing companies into five groups based on their fundamentals and valuation metrics, providing a framework for investment decisions [28]

这句话之所以成立 ， 关键在于原油从来不是一个越便宜越能无限供给的商品 。 当价格跌到某个区间 ， 供给端会用最朴素的方式回应 ： 少打井 、 少完井 、 少花钱 。 而过去十几年最能代表边际供给的 ， 就是美国页岩油 。 美国页岩油已经从增长机器变成了现金流机器 。 过去大家担心油价下跌 ， 是因为默认页岩油会像以前那样见价就上产 。 但现实是 ， 页岩油公司越来越像成熟行业的公司 ， 更看重资本纪律 ， 产量增长反而退居其次 。 一个非常直观的证据来自达拉斯联储能源调查 2025 年四季度的数据 。 行业景气与公司前景仍偏负面 ， 企业不确定性高企 ， 这类情绪天然抑制 激进扩张 。 2026 年资本开支预期分化很大 ， 但对大中型勘探开发商来说 ， 与 2025 年接近反而是最常见的选项 。 更关键的是 ， 企业做 2026 年资本规划时使用的 WTI 价格均值约 59 美元一桶 ， 中位数和众数在 60 美元一桶 ， 明显低于它们 2025 年预算用的 68 美元 。 这意味着什么 ？ 当 WTI 掉到它们预算油价以下 ， 管理层最自然的反应不会是拼命多钻点 ， 而是 把现金流优先用于资产负债表 、 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：晨星投资说 Christine Benz 来源：雪球 投资市场的2025年，已经画上了句号。A股、港股和黄金在全球大类资产中的表现居前；而在前几年市场波动中为投资者提供保护的中国债券、以 及曾长期领跑全球的美股在2025年的表现则略显黯淡。 以下文章来源于晨星投资说 ，作者陪你聊配置的 晨星投资说 . 全球知名投资研究机构晨星Morningstar，与您一同探索投资星球。我们的使命是"赋能投资者成功"！ | 122 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ਰ ਜਿੱਟ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 19.60 | 31.37 | 9.32 | 39.19 | 29.89 | 58.04 | 36.32 | 29.76 | 29.18 | 60.29 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding human nature in investing, highlighting that greed and fear are the main obstacles investors face. It advocates for a mindset of correct knowledge, vision, and action to navigate the stock market effectively [5][6]. Investment Philosophy - Investment is likened to a journey of learning, where the stock market serves as a platform for acquiring valuable life lessons [4]. - Correct investment philosophy can help avoid many pitfalls, and learning from successful investors like Warren Buffett is crucial [6]. Human Nature in Investing - Greed is described as a desire for unattainable wealth, leading to unrealistic expectations and poor investment decisions [5]. - Fear is characterized as a reluctance to let go of existing assets, which can hinder investment growth [5]. Investment Strategy - Achieving a 20% to 30% annual return can lead to significant wealth accumulation over time, as demonstrated by Buffett's long-term success through compounding [6]. - The article suggests focusing on a select group of companies, specifically the top 300 or the top 100 brands, for investment opportunities [6]. Technical Analysis - A comprehensive understanding of various technical indicators and their combined use is essential for effective stock selection [6]. - Proper portfolio management and scientific position control are recommended as strategies to mitigate risks during market downturns [6]. Broader Economic Context - The stock market is portrayed as a reflection of political, economic, and social dynamics, emphasizing the need for investors to understand these broader contexts [6]. - The article concludes that true investment wisdom comes from understanding human nature and the interconnectedness of society, politics, and economics [6].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 市场回顾 2025年投资正式收官，小雪实盘也陪伴各位投资者经历这一年资本市场的风云变幻。年末之际，雪球投研将与各位投资者聊聊小雪实盘这一年的成 绩单。 2024年9月24日，央行、金融监管总局和证监会三部门同步推出一揽子增量金融政策，为资本市场注入强心剂。当前距离"924政策组合拳"的出台 已过去一年有余，而在宏观逆周期调节政策支持、资本市场制度完善与中长期资金入市的持续推动下，A股整体步入"慢牛"通道。截至2025年12月 31日，上证指数全年累计上涨18.41%，创业板指、科创50分别上涨49.57%、35.92%。其中，截至10月29日收盘，上证指数时隔近10年再度站 上4000点。 数据来源：央行、国务院客户端等，雪球投研整理，数据截至2025年12月31日。 2025年3月，政府工作报告将"综合整治内卷式竞争"列为年度重要任务；7月召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议上，强调"要依法依规治理企业低价 无序竞争"；随之而来的是光伏、汽车和动力电池等多个领域积极推进"反内卷"相关安排。 在此背景之下，2025年中国物价指数整体呈现出"CPI温和回升，PPI降幅收窄"的态势 ...

Market Overview - The market opened high but closed lower, with all three major indices declining: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.26%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.18%, and ChiNext Index down 0.2% [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.03 trillion yuan, with over 2900 stocks declining [4] Sector Performance Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry chain showed strong performance, with Longji Technology hitting the daily limit and reaching a five-year high, while Bawei Storage and Jiangbolong both achieved historical highs [4][13] - Notable stocks included Ningbo Silicon Electronics and Tianyue Advanced, both hitting the daily limit with a 20% increase, and Bawei Storage rising 17% to a historical high [14] - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a "super bull market," with expectations of a 40% to 50% increase in the memory market by Q1 2026 [21] AI Application Sector - The AI application sector faced significant declines, with many stocks hitting the daily limit, including Yanshan Technology and Xinhua Net [5][6] - Companies like BlueFocus and Kunlun Wanwei saw declines exceeding 10% [7] Electric Power Equipment Sector - The electric power equipment sector experienced a strong rally, particularly in grid equipment, with stocks like Bofei Electric and Hancable hitting the daily limit [22] - The State Grid announced a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan for the "14th Five-Year Plan," a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on technological innovation and new power system construction [25][26] - Goldman Sachs predicts that AI-driven global digital infrastructure and energy system investments could reach $5 trillion over the next decade, with grid equipment being a direct beneficiary [26]

Core Concept - The article discusses the "Permanent Portfolio" investment strategy proposed by Harry Browne, which aims to generate returns regardless of economic conditions by diversifying investments across four asset types: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash [1][3]. Economic Environments - Browne identifies four economic environments: inflation, deflation, economic growth, and economic recession, each influencing different asset classes [3][5]. - In economic growth, corporate profits rise, leading to increased stock prices [5]. - Inflation results in high demand, causing commodity prices to rise due to supply shortages [6][7]. - Deflation indicates weak demand, prompting governments to lower interest rates, which boosts bond prices [9][10]. - During economic recessions, holding cash provides a safety net and allows for opportunistic investments [11]. Investment Strategy - The strategy involves dividing capital equally into four parts (25% each) and investing in the identified asset classes, ensuring that at least one asset is likely to perform well regardless of economic conditions [12][13]. - The portfolio requires periodic rebalancing to maintain the 25% allocation, adjusting for any significant price changes in the assets [15][19]. Performance and Adaptation - Over 50 years, the Permanent Portfolio achieved an annualized return of 8%-9%, with only four years of slight losses, demonstrating resilience even during market downturns [23][24]. - The concept has been widely adopted by financial institutions in developed countries, including sovereign wealth funds and endowment funds [31]. Comparison with New Strategies - The article introduces a new investment tool called "Three-Part Method," which modifies the Permanent Portfolio approach by replacing cash with short-term bonds for better efficiency [32][36]. - The Three-Part Method diversifies investments across various global markets, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and others, to capture broader economic growth [39]. - It allows for personalized asset allocation based on individual risk tolerance, contrasting with the fixed allocation of the Permanent Portfolio [41]. Investment Execution - The Three-Part Method encourages regular investment through dollar-cost averaging, which helps mitigate the risks of market volatility and promotes disciplined investing [44]. - It emphasizes three types of diversification: asset diversification (stocks, bonds, commodities), market diversification (various global stock markets), and time diversification (through regular investments and rebalancing) [48].

01 热门板块重挫 多只高位股跌停 商业航天概念板块集体调整，中国卫星、雷科防务、航天电子、电科芯片等纷纷跌停，航天宏图等跌超 10% 。 此前 3 连板的海格通信，早间竞价阶段即报跌停，截至发稿，跌停板封单超250万手。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 创业板指午后探底回升， 截至收盘，沪指跌0.33%，深成指涨0.41%，创业板指涨0.56%。 沪深两市成交额2.91万亿，较上一个交易日缩量1.04万亿，全市场超3100只个股下跌。 板块方面，半导体板块午后走强，矽电股份20%涨停创历史新高；旅游酒店板块表现活跃，陕西旅游涨停；有色金属板块走高，四川黄金、罗平锌 电涨停。 下跌方面，AI应用、商业航天等热门板块跌幅居前。高位人气股集体退潮，华人健康、浙文互联、中国卫通、金风科技、鲁信创投等多股跌停。 昨日晚间，海格通信发布公告称，预计 2025 年年度公司归属于上市公司股东的净利润为负值，公司 2025 年年度经营业绩将出现亏损。 此前多日连板的岩山科技，开盘火速跌停，截至发稿，跌停板封单超480万手。 | 低 11.87 | 额 34.21亿 换 5.11% | | | 市盈TTM 389.81 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing trend of quantitative macro strategies in the investment landscape, emphasizing their growth and effectiveness in asset allocation and risk management [9][10]. Group 1: Growth of Quantitative Macro Strategies - Over the past seven years, the global management scale of quantitative macro strategies has experienced explosive growth, surpassing 60% of the global macro strategy proportion in 2023, with this percentage continuing to rise [9]. - Quantitative macro strategies shift investment decision-making from narrative-driven approaches to rule-based execution through quantitative models, integrating both quantitative trading and macroeconomic logic [10]. Group 2: Addressing Criticisms of Quantitative Macro Strategies - Criticism regarding the rationality of macro strategies is addressed, highlighting that while traditional macro strategies rely on low-frequency economic data, quantitative macro can utilize a broader range of high-frequency data through advancements in machine learning and AI [12][13]. - The article counters the skepticism about the performance of quantitative macro strategies, asserting that many strategies have demonstrated significant excess returns, particularly in volatile market conditions, where they can quickly respond to market signals [16][18]. Group 3: Strategy Implementation - An example of a quantitative macro strategy is provided, which divides its approach into Beta and Alpha components, with the Beta portion using a risk parity model to allocate equal volatility weights to equity indices, government bonds, and commodity futures [15]. - The Alpha component employs machine learning models to identify short-term signals for timing and trading, enhancing returns without increasing overall portfolio risk [15][18]. Group 4: Risk Management and Leverage - Quantitative macro strategies are noted for their cautious approach to leverage, utilizing a more diversified trading portfolio and a programmatic risk control mechanism to monitor leverage usage in real-time [20]. - The article emphasizes that the flexibility in using leverage is a significant advantage of macro strategies, particularly when employing CTA methods to amplify returns during certain market conditions [18][20].