以下文章来源于风云君的研究笔记 ，作者专注私募研究的 风云君的研究笔记 . 深耕私募行业多年，专注私募基金各个策略以及资产配置，希望能分享给大家更深入、更专业的私募那些事。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 风云君的研究笔记 来源：雪球 八天的小长假过得真快，各位朋友们假期玩得都还不错吧。 本以为假期A股不开盘，很多朋友会觉得有些无聊。 没成想市场的"好戏"真是一出接一出。 其中最有看点的，莫过于黄金的一路"狂飙"。 国庆前后，黄金价格屡创新高。 6号金价率先突破了3900点关卡，随即8日直接冲到4000点，盘中触及4059.1高点，真有点拍卖会的味道。 仅仅国庆前后几天，金价就有接近200点的上涨。 拉长时间看，从9月初黄金突破3500点到10月8日站上4000点，也仅用一个月时间就完成了500多美元的涨幅，年内更是有超50%的上涨。 不得不说，今年绝对是黄金的大年。 其次，日本民主党新任副总裁高市早田的"双宽松"立场加剧市场对日元贬值以及债务信用的担忧，而法国总理辞职再度阻碍其财政整顿计划实施， 都在一定程度 ...

以下文章来源于做配置的小雪 ，作者做配置的小雪 做配置的小雪 . 曾经幻想暴富，现实变成暴负，投资只能慢慢变富～ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 今年一共有6个奖项，每个奖项奖金是1100万瑞典克朗，也就是说，今年一年的奖金支出就有6600万。 但是在124年前，诺贝尔只留下了3100万瑞典克朗，如果只靠这笔钱，连今年的奖金都不够支付，更别提过去一个多世纪的巨额奖金了。 但事实是， 诺贝尔留下的这笔资产，不仅没有花完，还比最初的金额增值了200倍，诺奖单项奖金也从最初的15万瑞典克朗，涨到了1100万瑞典 克朗。 一、从3100万到61亿，诺奖靠多资产策略让钱生钱 诺贝尔的遗产由诺贝尔基金会管理，基金会负责拿着钱去做投资，不过，投资之路并不是一成不变，一共经历了三个阶段： 1、保守起步：局限于安全资产 基金成立初期，受诺贝尔的遗嘱限制，只能投资安全资产，比如国债和定期存款。 这种策略虽然保住了本金，但是收益率极低，在前50年里，收益率仅2%～3%，甚至无法跑赢通胀，到了1945年，诺奖单项奖金的实际购买力， 相比1901年已经缩水超过七成，基金会一度入不敷出，难以保证奖金顺利支出。 2、历史性转折：拥抱股票 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent structural bull market in sectors like chips, AI, and computing power, leading to rising valuations across various indices [4]. Market Temperature Analysis - The current market temperature is at 59.86 degrees, indicating a neutral to slightly hot market, which is higher than the temperatures during the bull markets of 2015 and 2021 [10][12]. - A market temperature below 20 degrees is considered a good time for dollar-cost averaging, while above 60 degrees indicates a hot market where opportunities become more selective [7][10]. Valuation Indicators - The stock-bond yield spread is currently at 2.59%, which is within a reasonable range, suggesting that equity assets have a higher value proposition compared to bonds [15]. - The Graham index, which measures the price-to-earnings ratio against the risk-free rate, is at 2.394, indicating a high equity market attractiveness due to low bond yields [19][20]. - The Buffett index, representing the market's total capitalization relative to GDP, is at 97.89%, indicating a high level of market capitalization compared to economic output [22]. Index Temperature Overview - The article provides a detailed analysis of various indices, including core broad-based indices like the CSI 300 and the CSI 500, with their respective temperatures and valuation metrics [26][27]. - Most major broad-based indices are currently in a normal valuation range, with some small-cap indices entering a slightly high valuation phase [28]. Sector and Strategy Indices - The article highlights the importance of dividend indices as a defensive strategy, with several indices showing lower temperatures, indicating potential investment opportunities [38][39]. - It also discusses the characteristics of various sector indices, emphasizing the need for careful selection, especially for new investors [47][49]. Emerging and Cyclical Industries - New and cyclical industries are noted as challenging areas for investment, often subject to volatility and requiring strong industry insight [50][51]. - The article advises against early involvement in emerging and cyclical industry indices for most new investors [52].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry has become a safe haven during the current bull market, despite various negative news and a challenging economic environment [3]. Group 1: Historical Performance - The China Securities White Liquor Index experienced a rollercoaster ride over the past decade, initially showing steady growth before entering a phase of extreme volatility starting in 2019 [4][5]. - Before 2019, the index was characterized as a "healthy bull," with gradual price increases driven by company performance. However, from 2019 onwards, it transformed into a "crazy bull," with stock prices soaring due to heightened market sentiment rather than actual earnings growth [5][6]. - The index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio surged from around 30 times to over 70 times, peaking at 21,663 in early 2021 [6]. Group 2: Recent Challenges - Following the peak, the market faced a prolonged period of correction, with the P/E ratio plummeting to 18.7 times, indicating a significant valuation bubble burst [7]. - The volatility in white liquor prices has been much more pronounced than changes in the underlying fundamentals, primarily driven by the drastic shift in valuation [8]. Group 3: Current Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is pessimistic due to several factors: a poor economic environment leading to reduced consumption, excessive inventory from previous production surges, and changing preferences among younger consumers who are less inclined to drink white liquor [9]. - The industry is currently in a "winter" phase, focusing on inventory clearance and bubble deflation, which is a painful but necessary process [10]. Group 4: Positive Outlook - Despite the challenges, there are positive factors to consider: the current low valuation (P/E of 18.7 and a dividend yield of 3.8%) provides a safety cushion, reflecting most negative news already [9]. - The business model of leading white liquor brands remains robust, characterized by high profit margins and strong cash flow, supported by deep-rooted cultural practices [9]. - As the market has largely priced in potential bad news, opportunities may arise amidst the prevailing pessimism, suggesting a potential rebound in demand as economic conditions improve [11].

Market Overview - The market experienced significant fluctuations with all three major indices closing down: Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94%, Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.70%, and ChiNext Index decreased by 4.55% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.52 trillion, a decrease of 137.6 billion compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - Previously popular sectors such as semiconductors, batteries, and precious metals saw substantial declines, with notable stocks like SMIC down nearly 8% and Cambrian down over 6% [3][5] - Conversely, sectors like coal, textiles, and banking showed resilience, with some stocks in these sectors rising despite the overall market downturn [4] Technology Sector Analysis - The technology sector faced a sharp decline, particularly in semiconductors and consumer electronics, with significant drops in stocks like SMIC and other leading companies [6][9] - Concerns about an AI bubble have emerged, as venture capital investments in AI startups reached a record $192.7 billion since 2025, with 62.7% of U.S. venture capital directed towards AI companies in the last quarter [9] Financial Sector Recovery - Following the adjustment in technology stocks, the financial sector began to rebound, with banks, securities, and insurance stocks closing in the green [14][15] - Specific banks such as Qilu Bank and Shanghai Bank saw increases of over 2%, while securities firms like Guosen Securities rose nearly 6% [16][18] Coal and Energy Sector Insights - The coal and oil sectors showed increased activity, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up [20] - Analysts predict that the coal sector's performance may improve in the second half of 2025 due to rising coal prices and better market conditions, with expectations for a rebound in earnings [22][23]

Core Insights - Peter Lynch, at the peak of his career, chose to retire at the age of 46, prioritizing family over continued professional success [2][3][6] - Lynch emphasizes the importance of understanding one's investments, stating that knowing what one owns is crucial for successful investing [11][12][18] - He expresses skepticism about macroeconomic predictions, arguing that focusing on current facts is more beneficial for investors [22][23][26] - Lynch advocates for a disciplined investment approach, suggesting that investors should nurture their winning stocks while cutting losses on underperformers [27][28][30] Group 1: Retirement Decision - Lynch retired at 46, influenced by his father's death at the same age, and desired more time with his family [6][7][10] - Despite numerous offers to manage large funds post-retirement, he chose not to return to the high-pressure environment of fund management [8][9] Group 2: Investment Principles - The key to making money in the stock market is not to panic, which is only possible if investors understand their holdings [12][26] - Lynch recounts an experience with a famous individual who was anxious about her investments but could not name the companies she owned, highlighting the need for investor knowledge [14][15] - He criticizes the tendency of investors to act impulsively without adequate research, contrasting it with the diligence applied to smaller purchases [16][17] Group 3: Market Predictions - Lynch maintains that predicting market movements is largely futile, citing the failure of economists to accurately forecast recessions [23][24] - He believes that investors often lose more money trying to predict market adjustments than during the adjustments themselves [25][26] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Lynch's philosophy includes the idea of "watering flowers, not weeds," encouraging investors to hold onto their winners and sell their losers [28][30] - He provides an example of Walmart's growth, illustrating that significant returns can come from long-term holdings even after substantial price increases [31][32] Group 5: Current Market Trends - Lynch expresses uncertainty about the current AI market trends and does not invest in AI stocks, preferring to focus on undervalued sectors [33][34] - He notes that while automation has reduced employment in certain sectors, overall job creation has increased, emphasizing the resilience of the economy [36][37] Group 6: Advice for Individual Investors - Lynch encourages individual investors to leverage their unique insights and knowledge in their respective fields, asserting that they have an advantage over Wall Street experts [40][42] - He reassures investors that with effort and diligence, they can succeed in the market, highlighting the opportunities available in the current economic system [43]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 沪指高开高走突破3900点整数大关，刷新2015年8月以来新高。截至收盘，沪指涨1.32%，深成指涨1.46%，创业板指涨0.73%。 沪深两市成交额2.65万亿，较上一个交易日放量4718亿。 有色金属、半导体、核电板块上演涨停潮；下跌方面，影视院线概念股集体大跌，中国电影等股跌停。 01 有色金属爆发 紫金矿业涨9.99% 有色金属、黄金板块集体爆发，西部黄金、四川黄金、山东黄金、中金黄金、铜陵有色、北方稀土等集体涨停。 消息面上， 10月8日，纽约金 价格突破每盎司 4000美元大关，创历史新高。 分析人士认为，金价上涨背后的两大支撑逻辑：一方面，美国政府债务问题及全球"去美元化"趋势构成中长期支撑；另一方面，各国央行持续增持 黄金，也强化了市场信心。 以中国央行为例，9月末黄金储备已达7406万盎司，连续第11个月增加。尽管国际金价已处高位，央行仍稳步增持，释放出优化外汇储备结构的明 确信号。目前，我国黄金储备在外汇储备中占比为7.7%，仍明显低于全球约15%的平均水平，未来仍有提升空间。 本周二，桥水基金创始人达利欧表示，现在就像20世纪70年代，投资者应该比平 ...

以下文章来源于西西定投 ，作者西西定投 西西定投 . 专注基金定投，手把手教你做好基金定投。兼顾可转债、各类打新、套利等。研究普通人可能复制的投资理财方法。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 西西定投 来源：雪球 国庆长假已经过去了。 过节期间 ， 我跟身边的亲戚 、 朋友都见面 ， 聊了家常 ， 也聊了投资理财的问题 。 对我熟悉很清楚 ， 我身家基本上都在股市 ， 主要的钱都来源于这里 。 我一直觉得所有的家庭都需要做理财 ， 当然不一定要买股票 。 你可以把钱存银行 、 可以买债券基金 、 可以买黄金 （ 当然现在黄金不大合适 ） 。 每个家庭都需要管理好自己的家庭现金流 ， 要列一个表格 ， 收入的管道有哪些 ， 支出的管道有哪些 。 要学会量入而出 ， 要学会增加你的收入管道 。 尽量做到每年的收入大于你的支出 ， 每年都有点结余 ， 都有点钱做投资理财 。 这样慢慢积累 ， 后面你理财的收入会远超过你的工资 。 这个时候你的岁数也大了 ， 慢慢要退出职场 。 对我不熟悉的 ， 我说我在做投资理财 ， ...

以下文章来源于复利无声 ，作者复利无声 复利无声 . 本人2022年2月15日正式入职银华基金，在此之前言论均为个人发布，周知。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 无声 来源：雪球 随着市场行情的纵深发展 ， 一方面 ， 以人工智能 、 港股创新药 、 新能电池为代表的主线行情如火如荼 ， 表现的非常突出 ； 国庆长假即将结束，人到中年 ， 很难有特别多属于自己的时间 ， 看看老人 、 招待朋友 、 陪陪孩子 ， 时间就跟流水一样 ， 过去了 ； 很多自己想做的事情 ， 包括睡几个懒觉也没能如意 。 不过 ， 好在节日期间港股市场的表现还是不错的 ， 尤其是我们重点关注的恒生科技 、 资源周期 、 港股创新药等方向 ， 没有什么比这更开心 的了 。 另一方面 ， 热点此消彼长 ， 不断涌现 ， 尤其是个股层面 ， 很多涨幅较大 ； 第三 ， 以消费红利 、 红利低波为代表的内需消费和红利风格表 现的比较低迷 。 在这样的情况下 ， 很多投资者频繁交易是可以想象的 ， 也可以从成交量和换手率的变化中窥见一斑 ， 尤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disparity between individuals with strong analytical skills who often lose money in the stock market and those who achieve significant wealth without apparent exceptional intelligence, attributing this to the limitations of conventional thinking in investment and entrepreneurship [3][6]. Group 1: Insight and Methodology - Insight involves identifying anomalies in everyday life that can lead to overlooked opportunities [8]. - In investment, the process includes discovering market phenomena, designing effective investment methods, testing and improving these methods, and ultimately risking significant capital based on past successes [5][6]. - The article emphasizes that the structured environment of large companies supports success through established processes, while investment and entrepreneurship are less predictable and often lead to failure despite similar methodologies [6][14]. Group 2: Survivor Bias - The concept of survivor bias is highlighted, where successful entrepreneurs and investors are often seen as exceptional, while the failures using similar methods remain unnoticed [6][12]. - The luxury goods market is used as an example, illustrating that successful brands often benefited from unique circumstances rather than replicable strategies [11][12]. - The article warns that many perceived "blue oceans" are actually "dead seas" where previous entrepreneurs have failed, indicating the randomness of success in business ventures [13][14]. Group 3: Explanation and Reality - The ability to explain outcomes is crucial in corporate environments, where clear communication can determine success [18][19]. - However, in investment, explanations often reflect survivor bias, leading to misinterpretations of market realities [20][21]. - Investors may become trapped in self-deception, over-relying on their analytical skills while ignoring adverse market signals [21]. Group 4: Persistence and Its Pitfalls - Persistence is often overvalued in investment, as sticking to a failing strategy can lead to irreversible losses [24][27]. - Successful investors must balance persistence with the ability to adapt to changing market conditions, rather than rigidly adhering to initial strategies [30][31]. - The article concludes that the combination of insight, explanation, and persistence can lead to significant losses if not managed carefully, emphasizing the need for flexibility in investment strategies [32].