保险板块大象起舞 延续2025年的强劲表现，A股市场保险股2026年第一个交易日全线飙升。3.8万亿的保险板块大象起舞，新华保险涨8.87%，中国平安涨 5.79%，中国人寿涨6.09%，中国太保、中国人保涨超5%。 | < | 保险 | | > ··· O. | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2890.30 (+182.15 +6.73%) | | | | 讨论 板块分析 | 成分股 | 相关ETF | 资讯 | | 全部(5) 连板 | (关注度 | 主力资金 | 北向净流向 | | 名称 | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 市盈率 ◆ | | 新华保险 | 75.88 | +8.87% | 6.16 | | SH60133R | | | | | 中国太保 | 45.06 | +7.52% | 8.28 | | SHROJROJ | | | | | 中国人寿 | 48.27 | +6.09% | 8.02 | | SH601628 | | | | | 中国平安 | 72.36 | +5.79% | 9.34 | | SH601318 | | | | | 中国人保 | 9.43 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that achieving a 10% annual return is a significant challenge in the investment landscape, despite the perception that it is easily attainable [4][5]. - Historical data shows that Warren Buffett has achieved nearly a 20% annual return over half a century, while the S&P 500 index has delivered around 9%-10% annual returns over the past century, indicating that 10% is a high benchmark in modern financial history [5][6]. - Traditional financial products like bank deposits and government bonds typically yield annual returns of 2%-4%, which are significantly lower than the desired 10% [6]. Group 2 - The article discusses various asset classes, noting that stocks and equity funds are the only categories that theoretically can provide long-term returns of 10% [10][18]. - The CSI 300 Index, representing the A-share market, has achieved a total return of 586.68% since the end of 2004, translating to an annualized return of 9.91%, which is close to the 10% target [10]. Group 3 - Human psychology plays a crucial role in investment success, with common pitfalls including panic selling during market downturns and greed-driven buying during market highs, which hinder the ability to achieve consistent returns [11][12]. - Frequent trading often leads to negative returns after accounting for transaction costs and timing errors, as investors attempt to time the market [13]. Group 4 - The article suggests that for ordinary investors without insider information or deep financial analysis skills, achieving close to a 10% return is possible through diligent asset selection and a focus on equity assets [17][19]. - Index funds are recommended as a more accessible investment vehicle for most investors, as they offer transparency and a straightforward approach to market participation [19]. Group 5 - The article highlights the importance of investment behavior, including necessary diversification, adequate positioning, and long-term commitment, as essential factors for achieving compounding returns [21]. - Even with the right strategies, achieving long-term returns exceeding 10% still requires favorable market conditions and timing [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on past investment experiences, emphasizing the importance of market trends alongside fundamental analysis and valuation in making investment decisions [4][11]. Group 1: Lessons from Profitable Stocks - The success with China Hongqiao was attributed to its favorable fundamentals, low valuation, and positive market trends, which were initially overlooked, leading to insufficient position size [5][6]. - The analysis of market trends, fundamental changes, and valuation is crucial; when two out of three factors indicate a better choice, decisive action should be taken [5][6]. Group 2: Lessons from Unprofitable Stocks - Chengdu Bank's disappointing third-quarter report highlighted the risk of ignoring market signals, leading to a misguided decision to buy against market trends [7]. - The experiences with Gree Electric and thermal power stocks underscored the necessity of having strong confidence in fundamentals before investing, as lack of confidence can lead to panic selling during market corrections [8]. Group 3: Key Investment Strategies - Identifying opportunities where fundamentals, low valuation, and positive market trends align is rare; when such opportunities arise, significant investment should be made [11]. - When market trends confirm investment logic, it is essential to increase position size decisively, as demonstrated by the successful investment in Shenhuo [10][11]. - A lack of confidence in fundamentals can lead to poor investment decisions, especially during market adjustments, resulting in losses [11]. Group 4: Future Focus - The company plans to concentrate on analyzing firms with strong cash flow, low valuations, and a commitment to sharing value with minority shareholders, while continuing to explore the thermal power sector [12].

Group 1 - BYD surpassed Tesla in 2025, achieving a total electric vehicle sales of 2.2567 million units and plug-in hybrid sales of 2.2887 million units, capturing over 35% of the domestic new energy vehicle market [4][6] - BYD's overseas sales reached 1.0496 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 145%, with significant growth in markets like Brazil and Thailand [6] - Tesla produced 1.655 million electric vehicles and delivered 1.636 million in 2025, with a notable decline in Q4 deliveries due to the expiration of a federal tax credit [10][12] Group 2 - Moutai's retail price for its Flying Moutai liquor fell below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle, with a reported price of 1490 yuan on January 4, 2026 [15][16] - Moutai adjusted the purchase limit for consumers from 12 bottles to 6 bottles per day starting January 4, 2026, to meet high demand ahead of the Spring Festival [18][19] - Moutai's stock price was reported at 1377 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 1.72 trillion yuan as of December 31, 2025 [20] Group 3 - Luxshare Precision issued a clarification regarding recent rumors, stating that its core business is progressing as planned without any abnormal situations affecting operations [23][25] - The company is involved in the development of AI-related hardware, with expectations for various product forms to emerge in 2026 [25] - Luxshare's stock price was reported at 56.71 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 413.2 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025 [29] Group 4 - Two new stocks are set to be issued on January 6, 2026, including Kema Materials and Zhixin Co., both of which are key players in the automotive supply chain [30][32] - Kema Materials reported revenues of 202 million yuan in 2022, with a projected revenue growth of 0.39% for 2025 [34] - Zhixin Co. achieved revenues of 2.091 billion yuan in 2022, with a forecasted revenue increase of 26.3% for 2025 [36]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 兵哥事务所 来源：雪球 最近一直在旅游途中 ， 没写东西 ， 但是也在关注资本市场 ， 发生了很多事情 ， 都值得聊一聊 ， 但是又都不急迫 ， 大家最关心的恐怕就是 2026年 ， 一个普通投资者可以做什么 。 我这会在雪乡 ， 还有一个小时发车去延吉 ， 利用这点时间简单聊聊我的核心思路 。 第一 、 科技 回首2025年 ， 基本都是围绕科技展开的 ， 主线是人工智能 ， 支线是创新药和商业航天 ， 跟对主题的都结结实实赚了一把 。 这些都算明线 ， 其实还有一条支线 ， 主题是科创债 ， 典型的产品是科创债ETF ， 从2025年7月10号成立 ， 半年不到规模就突破400亿了 ， 是跟踪AAA科创债指数中规模最大的一个 ， 其资产汇聚了央企 、 国企及优质科技民企发行的债券 ， 风格很明显 。 优势是它被纳入交易所质押库 ， 可作为质押券进行通用质押式回购交易 。 这意味着投资者在持有该ETF份额的同时 ， 能够将其质押融资 ， 盘活 存量资产 ， 极大提升了资金利用效 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of treating all investments with equal seriousness, regardless of their size, to maintain discipline in investment strategies [4][5][15] - It discusses the psychological effects of "mental accounting" and "denomination effect," which lead to different emotional responses and decision-making standards based on the amount of money involved [9][10][11] - The author reflects on a specific investment decision involving gold, highlighting that the issue was not the strategy itself but the relaxation of discipline in execution [12][13][14] Group 2 - The article serves as a reminder that every investment, regardless of its size or account designation, should be treated with respect to avoid the erosion of investment discipline [15][17] - It concludes that a robust investment system should have clear frameworks, rules, and rebalancing mechanisms to mitigate the influence of psychological biases [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that certain companies, regardless of their industry, consistently achieve high gross and net profit margins due to monopolistic and scarcity-driven advantages [4][5]. Group 1: Supply-Side Moat - The source of profit lies in the principle of "scarcity" where companies have absolute control over supply [6]. - For mining companies, this is characterized as "geological monopoly," where high-quality mineral deposits are unevenly distributed and non-renewable [6]. - For tech and consumer giants, it is referred to as "cognitive monopoly," with examples like Nvidia's CUDA ecosystem, Apple's iOS, and Moutai's unique microbial community [7]. Group 2: Demand-Side Consensus - High margins require not just supply scarcity but also stable demand, forming a commercial loop [9]. - Products like copper, gold, silver, and Moutai have demand that remains resilient across economic cycles [9]. - These products have a widely recognized value consensus, making them not just consumer goods but also vehicles for value preservation over time [9]. Group 3: Unique Financial Attributes of Precious Metals - Compared to consumer brands, commodities like copper, gold, and silver possess unmatched liquidity and financial pricing power [10]. - These metals are standardized and globally traded, allowing for continuous market pricing through major exchanges like LME, COMEX, and SHFE [12]. - Their financial attributes make them natural hedges against inflation, as their prices tend to rise during inflationary periods [12]. Conclusion - The essence of high margins is rooted in the ownership of scarce resources, with companies like Moutai and Nvidia controlling cognitive and technological scarcity, while mining firms control geological scarcity [13]. - Precious metals further leverage a global financial pricing system to convert scarcity into readily available purchasing power, explaining their enduring profitability [13].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 年初的第三仓位中海油港股，也是今年第三大盈利来源，现在看对它的考虑和操作基本准确，目前其仓位已经降到了第五位。我相信，在这轮康波 萧条期中往后它会有再次表现的机会，而在2026年，很可能会给我回补加仓的机会，仓位会回到前三中，这是一个我在往后三五年继续看好的标 的，它的经营壁垒、现金流和分红等都不错，还有一定成长性，分红比例目前我认为是合理的，没有太大向上调的空间，这是它的商业模式特点决 定的。中海油也属于康波萧条期通胀性资产。 来源：雪球 匆匆忙忙、跌宕起伏的2025年过去了，又将迎来新的一年。在过去的一年，账户获得了51%的收益，和很多人比，今年应该算是一个比较中庸的收 益，当然也是个人的选择，这种选择就是仓位配置有重点、但也要考虑均衡和分散，进攻和防御并重，布局近远期相结合，只富一次和活得久最重 要。全年A股基本占总资产的55%~60%，港股基本占总资产的45%~40%，B股很少一点，只有百分之零点几，因港股有色下半年逐渐清仓、年底涨 幅强劲的有色都在A股，年底A股和港股持仓市值比 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of major U.S. stock indices on the first trading day of 2026, with a notable surge in Chinese tech stocks and a significant increase in the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which rose by 4.38%, marking its largest single-day gain since May 12 of the previous year [2][3][7] - Major technology stocks showed a mixed performance, with ASML and Micron Technology both achieving historical highs, rising over 9% and 10% respectively, while other tech giants like Tesla and Microsoft experienced declines of over 2% [3][5] - The semiconductor sector saw a strong rally, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increasing by over 4.5%, driven by significant gains in companies like ASML and Micron Technology, which are benefiting from the growing demand for AI infrastructure [10][15] Group 2 - Tesla's Q4 delivery data fell short of expectations, resulting in a loss of its title as the world's top electric vehicle seller to BYD, which reported a 27.86% increase in annual electric vehicle sales [22][25][26] - Foreign investment institutions maintain a positive outlook on Chinese assets, with predictions of a 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027, emphasizing structured investment opportunities in technology innovation, green energy, and high-end manufacturing [28]

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of investment strategies over eight years, highlighting the transition from casual investing to a more serious approach, particularly in response to market cycles and personal circumstances [5][6][7]. - The author emphasizes the importance of cash flow in investment decisions, noting that a stable cash flow can provide confidence during market downturns, while a lack of it can lead to anxiety and reflection on investment strategies [11][12]. - The performance of the fund portfolio in 2025 is reported, with a yield of 18.29%, slightly underperforming the CSI 300 index, which had a yield of 18.36% during the same period [13][12]. Group 2 - The article outlines the investment strategy for 2025, which includes a balanced approach with approximately 50% equity and 50% fixed income, aiming for stability and reduced volatility [12][15]. - The author discusses the allocation of equity holdings, with a focus on technology sectors, particularly AI and internet-related stocks, which have shown significant recovery and growth potential [14][18]. - The article advises ordinary investors to maintain a maximum equity allocation of 50% to manage risk effectively, suggesting that a more conservative approach can lead to better long-term outcomes [24][30]. Group 3 - The article provides practical investment advice for ordinary investors, emphasizing simple methods over complex analyses, and recommending strategies such as dynamic rebalancing to achieve better risk management [22][25][26]. - It highlights the importance of being defensive during bull markets and aggressive during bear markets, suggesting that the mindset should shift according to market conditions [27]. - The article concludes with a warning against common pitfalls in investing, such as using emergency funds for investment, concentrating on a single sector, and chasing market trends [30].