Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3500-point mark, with all three major indices closing higher, indicating a positive market sentiment and performance [1]. Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - The four major banks (Industrial, Agricultural, China, and Construction Bank) have reached historical highs, contributing significantly to the market's upward movement [4][3]. - As of the market close, Industrial Bank's stock rose by 2.93%, with a total market capitalization of 2.88 trillion yuan, maintaining its position as the largest in A-shares [7]. - The recent rally in bank stocks is attributed to three main factors: the attractiveness of bank dividends in a low-interest-rate environment, increased capital inflows due to public fund adjustments, and accelerated conversion of bank convertible bonds [7]. Group 2: Securities Sector Strength - Securities stocks have also shown strong performance, with notable gains in companies like Zhongyin Securities, which hit the daily limit, and others such as Hongta Securities and Northeast Securities [9]. - Hongta Securities has projected a net profit increase of 45% to 55% for the first half of 2025, indicating robust growth potential in the sector [12]. Group 3: Rare Earth Sector Surge - The rare earth sector has experienced significant gains, with Northern Rare Earth hitting the daily limit and reporting an expected net profit increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% for the first half of 2025 [13][17]. - Northern Rare Earth's market capitalization has reached 976 billion yuan, reflecting its leading position in the rare earth permanent magnet industry [14]. Group 4: ST Huatuo's Volatility - ST Huatuo, known as the "game king" of A-shares, faced volatility due to financial discrepancies in its annual report, leading to a significant drop in stock price after initially surpassing a market cap of 1 trillion yuan [20]. - The stock has seen a cumulative increase of 317.49% since July 25, 2024, but recent performance raises concerns about its sustainability given the high valuation compared to its earnings [23].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation as a means for ordinary investors to navigate the uncertainties of the financial market, likening it to Noah's Ark for survival and growth [2][3] - The article discusses the theoretical foundation of asset allocation, highlighting Harry Markowitz's mean-variance model and its significance in reducing risk through the scientific combination of low-correlated assets [4] - It presents empirical evidence showing that 91% of mutual fund performance differences from 1970 to 2020 were due to asset allocation strategies rather than stock selection or market timing [4] Group 2 - The practical value of asset allocation is illustrated through examples of risk diversification, such as the "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds during market downturns, which can significantly reduce portfolio drawdowns [5] - Behavioral finance insights are shared, indicating that proper asset allocation can mitigate emotional responses during market volatility, reducing the psychological impact of asset fluctuations [5] - The article provides a performance comparison of a diversified asset allocation strategy from 2010 to 2020, showing an annualized return of 7.2% with a maximum drawdown of only 9.8% [5] Group 3 - The article outlines strategic tools for asset allocation, including the "Four Seasons" method that adjusts asset allocation based on economic cycles [6] - It discusses lifecycle-based asset allocation, recommending different asset mixes for various age groups to align risk exposure with life stages [7] - The use of various financial instruments, such as ETFs, convertible bonds, and REITs, is suggested to enhance portfolio diversification and returns [8] Group 4 - Historical lessons are drawn from past financial crises, demonstrating the effectiveness of diversified asset allocation strategies in mitigating losses compared to concentrated positions [9][10] - The article highlights the performance of Bridgewater's All Weather strategy during periods of economic stress, showcasing its ability to generate positive returns while traditional equities suffered losses [10] Group 5 - The future of asset allocation is discussed in the context of technological advancements, including big data, AI optimization, and blockchain, which are transforming the investment landscape [11] - The article concludes with a philosophy of viewing asset allocation as a means to achieve financial security and stability rather than speculative gains, emphasizing disciplined investment practices [12][13] Group 6 - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" is introduced as a risk management framework that balances stocks, bonds, and commodities to create a defensive investment strategy [26][27] - The method emphasizes dynamic rebalancing to maintain target asset allocations and enhance returns through systematic adjustments based on market conditions [28] - The article discusses the potential for generating excess returns through strategic asset allocation, including timing and sector rotation based on market conditions [30] Group 7 - A proposed asset allocation strategy is presented, incorporating global assets, bonds, A-shares, and alternative investments to create a robust defensive structure [34][36] - The strategy aims to mitigate geopolitical risks through diversified global exposure and balance between interest rate and credit risk [37] - The allocation includes a focus on high-dividend assets to provide stability during market downturns, reinforcing the importance of income-generating investments [38] Group 8 - The article emphasizes the importance of dynamic balancing and threshold management in maintaining optimal asset allocations, ensuring that portfolios remain aligned with market conditions [44] - It discusses the need for liquidity management to address unexpected redemption demands, highlighting the role of cash and cash-equivalent assets [53] - The overall philosophy of the proposed asset allocation strategy is to build a "anti-fragile" investment system capable of withstanding market volatility while capturing structural opportunities [54][55]

Market Overview - The overall market experienced a pullback after reaching a high, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.13% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.06%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.16. The total market turnover was 15,274 billion, an increase of 528 billion from the previous day [1]. Company News - Upwind New Materials resumed trading after a 5-day suspension and opened with a 20% limit up, with 4.11 million hands sealed at the limit [3]. - Upwind New Materials announced a significant change in ownership, with Zhiyuan Robotics planning to acquire control through a share transfer and tender offer, potentially marking a landmark acquisition case for new productivity enterprises in the A-share market [5][6]. - Zhiyuan Robotics clarified that this action is not a reverse merger as defined by the regulations, but rather an acquisition of controlling interest [6]. Investment Insights - Investors on platforms like Xueqiu have expressed varied opinions on the acquisition, with some viewing it as a strong signal for mergers and acquisitions, particularly around newly listed companies [7]. - The acquisition of Upwind New Materials, a leader in vinyl ester resin, is seen as a strategic move for Zhiyuan Robotics, which could enhance its position in the robotics industry [7]. Stock Performance - The stock of Giant Legend surged over 160% following news that Jay Chou officially joined Douyin, with the stock reaching a peak of 17 HKD per share [9][11]. - Giant Legend, founded by Jay Chou's mother, generates revenue from businesses related to Chou, including concerts and merchandise [13]. Strategic Partnerships - CATL's stock reached a new historical high, increasing by 7.18% after signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Geely Automobile to deepen collaboration in battery technology and supply chain development [14][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the lithium market is not experiencing severe oversupply as suggested by various domestic institutions, while the copper market is facing a gradual supply shortage. The analysis indicates that the inventory levels and consumption rates for both metals do not support the claims of significant oversupply in lithium [1][24]. Lithium Market Analysis - In 2024, the global consumption of lithium batteries is projected to be 1545 GWh, requiring approximately 105,000 tons of lithium carbonate. Considering a production yield of 90% and additional factors, the actual consumption is estimated at 114,130 tons [2]. - The total lithium carbonate consumption, including traditional industry usage, is expected to reach 128,000 tons, while the total supply is projected at 136,700 tons, resulting in a surplus of 8,700 tons, which equates to an oversupply ratio of 6.36% [3][4]. Copper Market Analysis - The consumption of cathode copper in 2024 is estimated at 2,733,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.92%. The projected surplus for copper is approximately 46,900 tons, leading to an oversupply ratio of 1.72% [4][5]. Inventory Situation - The article details the inventory levels across different stages of the mining and processing supply chain for both lithium and copper. For copper, the total inventory is around 720,000 to 750,000 tons, which translates to approximately 25.33 days of consumption [9][10]. - In contrast, lithium inventory is estimated at 70,000 to 80,000 tons, corresponding to about 19.14 days of consumption, indicating a tighter supply compared to copper [10]. Smelting and Processing Inventory - In the smelting stage, lithium carbonate inventory is reported at 59,032 tons, equating to 12 days of consumption, while copper smelting inventory stands at approximately 95,700 tons, also representing about 12.76 days of consumption [12][13]. - The processing stage shows lithium inventory at 40,635 tons, which is about 8.3 days of consumption, while copper processing inventory is estimated at 120,000 to 150,000 tons, translating to 18 days of consumption [16][17]. Trade and Other Inventories - Lithium trade and battery inventories are around 37,170 tons, corresponding to 7.6 days of consumption, while copper trade inventories are estimated at 60,000 tons, equating to 8 days of consumption [19][20]. - The article notes a significant decline in lithium warehouse receipts, dropping from approximately 40,000 tons to 15,555 tons, a decrease of 61%, indicating tightening supply conditions [21]. Conclusion - The analysis concludes that lithium inventory levels are consistently lower than those of copper across various stages, challenging the narrative of severe oversupply in the lithium market. The article criticizes the methodology used by institutions to assess inventory levels and suggests that a more nuanced understanding of supply and demand dynamics is necessary [24][25]. - The article also highlights that while lithium experienced a surplus of 5-6% last year, copper had a surplus of only 1-2%, indicating a more favorable outlook for copper moving forward [26][27].

Overview - The article discusses the valuation of innovative drugs, focusing on the choice between absolute and relative valuation methods, and the factors influencing these valuations, such as target patient population, market share, and drug pricing [2]. Valuation Methods - The innovative drug industry is characterized by patent protection periods, which allow for significant pricing power and excess profits during the patent period, but face steep competition post-patent expiration [4]. - The absolute valuation method, specifically the DCF model, is deemed unsuitable for innovative drugs due to the high uncertainty in predicting revenues, profit margins, and capital expenditures [5]. - Relative valuation methods such as P/B, P/E, P/DCF, and P/S are explored, with P/S being highlighted as the most stable and practical for innovative drug companies due to the predictability of sales [6][9]. Commercial Forecasting Model - A robust commercial model is essential for predicting sales, with methodologies like those used by Frost & Sullivan being noted for their representativeness [11]. Patient Population - The starting point for predicting sales is the patient population, which can be assessed through prevalence and incidence rates. Prevalence reflects the total number of existing cases, while incidence measures new cases over a specific period [15][16]. - Disease subtyping is crucial for accurate market predictions, as different subtypes may respond to different treatments [17]. - Treatment rates indicate the proportion of patients receiving effective treatment, which can vary based on economic and healthcare access factors [20]. Market Share - Market share predictions depend on several factors, including target competition, real-world efficacy of drugs, treatment sequencing, commercialization capabilities, and accessibility policies [21]. - The competitive strength of drug targets and the real-world efficacy of drugs significantly influence market share [23][25]. - The order of drug usage and expert consensus play a role in determining market share, with first-line treatments generally being preferred [27][29]. - Commercialization capabilities vary among companies, impacting the sales outcomes of similar drugs [30]. Drug Pricing - Drug pricing is influenced by the initial price at launch, pricing in different countries, and price changes over time [35]. - The starting price is typically based on the annual cost of similar drugs, clinical benefits, and development costs [36]. - Price differences across countries highlight the importance of market access, with the U.S. generally having higher drug prices compared to other regions [37]. - Over time, drug prices may decrease in markets like China due to negotiations, while they may increase in the U.S. due to favorable protections for innovative drugs [39]. Product Sales Curve - The sales curve of a drug typically follows a pattern of market introduction, rapid growth, maturity, and decline, with effective commercialization strategies leading to faster growth [40]. - Historical data indicates that the median time to peak sales is approximately six years [42]. - Different drug types exhibit varying sales growth patterns, with small molecules often experiencing rapid rises and falls, while biologics tend to have steadier growth [44][45]. Data Objectivity/Uncertainty - The objectivity and uncertainty of data can vary significantly, especially in high-uncertainty scenarios where subjective assumptions may dominate [46].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a structured asset allocation strategy over chasing high returns with minimal capital, highlighting the risks associated with speculative investments and the benefits of a disciplined approach to investing [3][4][30]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Many investors seek high returns by speculating on market trends, often leading to poor outcomes due to lack of information advantage [8][9]. - Successful investment requires identifying leading stocks and making significant investments, but this is challenging for average investors [10][11]. - Leveraging can amplify gains but also significantly increase the risk of total loss, as illustrated by the case of LTCM, which faced catastrophic losses due to excessive leverage [14][15][16]. Group 2: Sustainable Returns - A balanced asset allocation can yield sustainable annual returns between 5% and 15%, utilizing a mix of stocks, bonds, and commodities to mitigate risks [18][19][20]. - The article presents a comparison of investment outcomes based on different annual return scenarios, demonstrating that consistent, lower returns can outperform volatile high returns over time [21][22][24]. Group 3: Capital Accumulation - Increasing investment capital primarily comes from enhancing personal skills and career growth, which can lead to higher income and investment capacity [26][28]. - The article suggests that focusing on personal development and becoming an industry expert can provide better financial leverage than merely seeking high-risk investments [29][30]. Group 4: Investment Methodology - The "three-part method" proposed by Xueqiu promotes long-term investment and asset allocation through diversification across different assets and market conditions [33].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant downturns in the liquor and photovoltaic industries, highlighting the challenges faced by both sectors and the potential conditions for recovery. Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is currently facing three major challenges: weak consumer demand, high inventory levels, and price inversion [9][10]. - Consumer demand is declining, with a shift towards mid-to-low-end products and a weakened correlation with the real estate sector, impacting traditional consumption scenarios [10][11]. - High inventory levels are a result of manufacturers pushing products onto distributors during the pandemic, leading to a "dam" effect where excess stock remains unsold [12][14]. - The valuation bubble that existed during the liquidity peak of 2020-2021 has burst, with the China Liquor Index's PE-TTM ratio previously exceeding 70 times, now facing significant earnings growth declines [15][16]. - Recovery in the liquor sector depends on economic recovery, inventory normalization, and strategic adjustments by companies to target new consumer segments [21][23]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to widespread losses across the sector [17]. - Rapid capacity expansion from 2020 to 2022 has resulted in overproduction, with projected capacities far exceeding demand, leading to price crashes across the supply chain [17][18]. - Technological iterations, particularly the shift from PERC to N-type technologies, are intensifying competition and causing old production lines to become obsolete [18]. - The industry faces significant geopolitical risks, including trade barriers and instability in energy policies due to ongoing global conflicts [19][20]. - Conditions for recovery in the photovoltaic sector are clearer, with expectations for capacity reduction and stabilization of prices by 2025, alongside potential technological advancements [25][26]. Market Divergence and Potential Risks - Optimistic views suggest that the worst may be over for both industries, with opportunities emerging as pessimistic expectations are priced in [27][32]. - Cautious perspectives highlight the lack of substantial improvement in fundamentals, warning against premature investments [28][33]. - Key risks include macroeconomic uncertainties, slow capacity clearance, deteriorating overseas markets, and uncertainties in technological advancements [34][35][36][37]. Long-term Outlook - Both industries are undergoing painful adjustments as they transition towards higher quality development, with the liquor sector focusing on brand enhancement and the photovoltaic sector on technological leadership [38][39].

以下文章来源于府库 ，作者府库 府库 . 规划投资理财，温暖幸福生活 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 府库 来源：雪球 嘉信理财在 2021 年 7 月 14 日的文章《Does Market Timing Work》（市场择时有效吗）做了一个实验， 假设有五个投资者，从 2001 年 1 月到 2020 年 12 月，他们每年年初都能获得 2000 美元，以下是他们采用不同的策略来投资标普500的实验条件： 第一个投资者，拥有完美的择时技巧（或运气）。每年都能把 2000 美元投入在市场的最低点； 第二个投资者，每年获得 2000 美元都会立即投入市场，所以他的每笔投资都发生在每年的第一个交易日； 第三个投资者，他将每年获得的 2000 美元分成 12 等份，在每月的第一个交易日将一等份投资额投入市场； 第四个投资者，拥有极差的择时技巧（或运气）。每年都能把 2000 美元投入在市场的最高点； 第五个投资者，从不买股票，每年都把钱放在 T-bill 里（收益类似货币基金）。 这几位投资者的 20 年投资收益如下图： 嘉信理财共回测了 78 组数据 ...

A股三大指数今日集体走强，沪指再度剑指3500点。截止收盘，沪指涨0.70%，收报3497.48点；深证成指涨1.46%；创业板指涨2.39%。沪深两市成 交额达到14539亿，较昨日放量2453亿。 今日上涨股票数量接近4300只，逾70只股票涨停。算力硬件股集体爆发，工业富联等10余股涨停。光伏概念股再度反弹，通威股份等10余股涨停。 金融股一度冲高，大智慧涨停。 01 5000亿巨头涨停 受业绩催化，工业富联今日涨停，股价报26.38元/股，创2025年新高，市值突破5000亿元，达5239亿元。成交额74.83亿元排沪深主板第一。 消息面上，工业富联7月7日发布2025年半年报业绩预告，2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润119.58亿元-121.58亿元，与上年同期相 比，将上升32.19亿元-34.19亿元，同比上升36.84%-39.12%，远超市场预期。 对于业绩预增原因，公司表示，公司云计算业务在二季度实现高速增长，AI服务器营业收入较去年同期增长超过60%，云服务商服务器的营业收入 较去年同期增长超过1.5倍，英伟达GPU模块及算力板出货显著提升。精密机构件业务方面，得益于大客户 ...

以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基 础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有据。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：六亿居士 来源：雪球 前几天 ， 61和两个朋友聊天 。 一个是体制内老同学 ， 收入不高但胜在稳定 。 过去三年他定投沪深300 ， 虽然账户反复波动 ， 最近反而赚钱了 。 他笑着说 ： " 还好我不是靠投资吃饭的 ， 不然即便你提醒 ， 我也早就 扛不住了 。 " 另一个做互联网产品 ， 自2021年年中开始定投恒生科技 ， 自信来源于对行业的判断 。 结果到 2023年年底时不得不遗憾离场 ， 他叹了口气 ： " 我其实知道长期会好 ， 但那时候失业了 ， 心态不稳 ， 真的扛不动 。 " 是啊 ， 我们常听人说 " 长期主义 " ， 但长期主义的前提 ， 是我们能在市场下行时不被生活打 断 ， 不被现金流拖垮 。 今天这篇反思 ， 我们不谈市场 ， 不谈估值 ， 只谈 ： 我们靠什么吃饭 ？ 能扛多大风浪 ？ ...