↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ A股三大指数今日震荡整理，截止收盘，沪指涨0.13%，收报4128.37点；深证成指涨0.02%，收报14210.63点；创业板指跌0.37%，收报3320.54点。 沪深京三市成交额21249亿，较昨日缩量1455亿。 行业板块涨跌互现，文化传媒、游戏、船舶制造、教育、通信服务板块涨幅居前，贵金属、光伏设备、珠宝首饰、能源金属、商业百货板块跌幅居 前。 消息面上，2月9日，2026年春节档影片正式开启预售，根据灯塔专业版数据，截至今日11时15分，2026年春节档新片总票房（含点映及预售）达 9064万元。 浙商证券指出，本次春节档优质影片供给充足，尽管单片票房难以超越《哪吒2》，但在优质片单加持下，春节档票房表现可期。 02 游戏板块大涨！ AI应用的另一重要板块是游戏，恺英网络涨幅居前，星辉娱乐、浙数文化涨幅均接近7%，掌趣科技、姚记科技、完美世界等个股跟涨，板块内部呈 现普涨格局。 个股方面，上涨股票数量接近2200只，逾70只股票涨停。文化传媒板块掀涨停潮，读客文化、捷成股份、中文在线、荣信文化、幸福蓝海、光线传 媒20cm涨停。 Ai应用概念持续活跃！ 受Se ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the global macroeconomic landscape since Trump's presidency, highlighting the shift from low inflation and stable economic conditions to high inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, which have rendered many traditional investment strategies ineffective [10][11][12]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Changes - The global macro environment has transformed dramatically, characterized by high inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical conflicts, leading to a breakdown of previously reliable investment correlations [10][11]. - The emergence of a "K-shaped economy" has resulted in traditional industries facing pressure while new technologies continue to expand, altering asset correlations and investment strategies [11][12]. - The role of precious metals has shifted, becoming the second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar, as investors seek to hedge against currency devaluation [11][32]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies need to evolve from traditional stock-bond hedging to a balanced risk approach, focusing on reliable corporate earnings, reasonable valuations, and policy support [11][12]. - The importance of precious metals in investment portfolios has increased, with recommendations suggesting allocations of 20% to 30% in precious metals to counterbalance risks [51][56]. - Bonds are still considered valuable as a protective tool against economic downturns, despite their declining attractiveness compared to precious metals [55][60]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 suggests that high inflation, high debt, and geopolitical tensions will continue to dominate, necessitating a focus on hard currencies and structural growth opportunities while maintaining defensive reserves [12][41]. - The macroeconomic trends established during Trump's presidency are expected to persist, with ongoing challenges in global economic stability and investment strategies [41][42].

以下文章来源于莱言维语 ，作者莱言维语 莱言维语 . 不定期分享对于投资的一些碎碎念 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：莱言维语 来源：雪球 大多数人初入市场时 ， 都默认一个前提 ： 交易=预测 。 买股票前 ， 要有理由 ， 比如公司基本面好 、 国家政策利好 、 行业热点正热 ， 或者干脆我觉得要涨 。 预测准确率 ， 仿佛是交易者能力的直接体现 。 那么下面用一个经典的抛硬币游戏来打比方 ， 想象你和Nick玩游戏 ： 硬币正面 ， 你赢100元 ； 背面 ， 你亏50元 。 正反概率各50% ， 你 会参加吗 ？ 近期与朋友Nick进行了一期访谈栏目 ，文章不打算复述全部内容，只从我个人感兴趣的角度切入， 本文会从两个命题展开 ： 第一 ， 不预测 ， 真的能做好交易吗 ？ 第二 ， 分散投资到底是一种保守策略 ， 还是一种结构性的红利 ？ 我们一块一块来拆 。 01 不预测 ， 能否做好交易 ？ 一开场就抛出一个极具挑战性的问题 。 如果你彻底放弃预测 ， 你还能不能把交易做好 ？ 答案显然是肯定的 。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced significant fluctuations last week, particularly in precious metals, technology stocks, and US stocks [4] - The Hang Seng Tech Index has entered a technical bear market, with a decline of -21.56% from its recent high of 6715.46 points to a low of 5267.63 points [4] Group 2: Index Valuation - Major broad-based indices are generally at normal or higher valuation levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 at below 50 degrees, indicating low relative valuation [7] - The Hang Seng Index (82.1 degrees), Sci-Tech 50 (82.2 degrees), and State-Owned Enterprises Index (82.7 degrees) are at higher valuation levels, suggesting caution in investment decisions [7] - The overall market represented by the CSI All A is at 62.3 degrees, indicating limited low-valuation opportunities [7] Group 3: Global Index Valuation - Compared to domestic indices, global broad-based indices are at higher valuation levels, with major indices in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan also showing elevated valuations [9] - The high valuations in global markets may lead to increased volatility with any external disturbances [9] Group 4: Dividend Indices - The CSI Dividend Index has a PE ratio around 10 and a dividend yield of 4.89%, which is historically low, indicating a need to wait for better opportunities [11] - The dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks remains higher than that of A-shares, influenced by market factors and tax considerations [12] Group 5: Strategy Indices - Among strategy indices, the Dividend Quality index is currently undervalued, while the 300 Value and 50 Fundamentals indices are relatively low [13] - The AH strategy, which involves arbitrage between A and H shares, is currently at a historically high valuation level [14] Group 6: Industry Indices - The pharmaceutical and consumer sectors are currently at lower valuation levels, with leading consumer indices still undervalued despite some recent rebounds [15] - The technology sector, represented by tech leaders and the All-Information Index, is at historically high valuation levels, driven by advancements in AI and cloud computing [18] Group 7: Other Indices - The agricultural sector, represented by indices like the CSI Livestock and CSI Agriculture, is at a low valuation level, reflecting its status as a "necessity consumer goods" sector [20] - The demand in the agricultural sector is relatively stable, which presents both advantages and limitations in terms of elasticity [21]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance with significant increases in major indices and high trading volumes, driven by sectors such as AI and commercial aerospace, while oil and gas sectors lagged behind [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the last trading week before the holiday, the A-share market maintained high activity, with the ChiNext index rising nearly 3% and the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4100 points [2]. - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.25 trillion yuan, marking the 30th consecutive trading day of over 2 trillion yuan in volume, with over 4600 stocks rising [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.41% at 4123.09 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.17%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.98% [2]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - The CPO concept stocks, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, saw significant trading activity, with Tianfu Communication rising 17.76% to reach a historical high [4][6]. - The AI hardware and software sectors experienced substantial gains, with major players in the AI infrastructure space, such as Nvidia, indicating a sustainable increase in capital expenditure [7]. - The video generation sector also saw a surge, with companies like Zhongwen Online and Haikan Co. hitting the daily limit of 20% increase, driven by advancements in AI video generation technology [9][11]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The ongoing increase in capital expenditure by major cloud service providers is expected to drive demand for AI servers, benefiting related stocks in the AI infrastructure supply chain [7]. - The advancements in AI video generation technology are anticipated to lower production costs and enhance efficiency in content creation, presenting investment opportunities for companies with strong IP reserves and platform advantages [12]. - The space photovoltaic sector is gaining momentum, with companies like Jieput and Xiexin Integrated achieving daily limit increases, driven by strategic plans for deploying solar energy satellites in space [14][16].

以下文章来源于黑貔貅俱乐部 ，作者黑貔貅 黑貔貅俱乐部 . 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：黑貔貅俱乐部 来源：雪球 大宗商品行情热度居高不下 ， 尤以贵金属为代表的有色板块走出超预期上涨行情 。 这一轮行情固然有价格自身推动的因素 ， 但更核心的是市 场对长期全球发展的各类担忧 ， 集中反映在了大宗商品的定价中 ， 黄金 、 白银 、 铜这类品种尤为明显 ， 背后是投资者对未来地缘政治等诸 多投资不确定性的集体预判 。 股票市场大宗商品相关板块同样走势火热 ， 而这样的行情表现 ， 与过去几轮典型的大宗商品上行周期有着本质 区别 ， 但凡长期跟踪全球商品与大类资产的走势 ， 都能清晰感受到这一轮行情的独特性 。 宏观经济 ，亮点行业，大类资产配置 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 与典型牛市相比 ， 当下全球经济的基本面现状 ， 与大宗商品市场的火热表现形成了鲜明的背离 ， 这也是非典型性的核心体现之一 。 从全球经 济复苏动力来看 ， 当前整体复苏节奏偏弱 ， 远不及商品市场所反映的乐观状态 。 无论是全球PMI数据 、 全球M2投放数据 ， ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：羽界之家 来源：雪球 前两天，我经历了一件并不愉快、但让我思考了很久的事情。朋友突然找我，说能不能"帮帮他"。 他说他之前在茅台上割了三次，现在又买了紫金矿业被套牢，内心非常痛苦，完全无法原谅自己。他反复追问我，能不能跟着我投资。 我跟他说， 短期被套是投资里的常态 ，没有人能做到买入就涨、卖出就跌。我也跟他说，我写过很多文章，你如果能看懂、学会，其实就是在"跟 着我投资"。 但他接着说了一句话，让我非常无语，也让我警惕： "有些文章我看不懂。" 他并不是在问问题，而是在反复痛恨自己的投资失误，情绪已经完全失控，甚至说出了一些让我必须立刻拉开边界的话。 我只能明确告诉他： 如果你在一个高频犯错、情绪主导的状态里，还不断放大仓位、放大期待，那结果往往不是"学会了投资"，而是被市场反复惩罚。 二、合格的投资者，永远把风险放在第一位 我很同情他的处境，但 我帮不了他 。不是因为标的，而是因为 他的投资心态本身，就不是任何人能"带"的状态 。 而且，说得直白一点——我们只是萍水相逢，对陌生 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, with a total expected spending of $660 billion (approximately 4.58 trillion RMB) this year, which is a 60% increase compared to 2025 and more than double the spending of 2024 [4][5] - Companies like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are leading this investment trend, with Amazon projected to spend $200 billion by 2026, exceeding analyst expectations by 38% [5] - The competition among these tech giants has shifted from business operations to a focus on the underlying computational power needed for AI, indicating a strategic pivot in the industry [5][6] Group 2 - The massive capital expenditures have raised concerns about the financial performance of these companies, leading to a collective decline in their stock prices, with Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta experiencing drops of 4.48%, 6.77%, 12.11%, and 7.68% respectively [8] - Analysts predict that these high capital expenditures may negatively impact free cash flow, with forecasts indicating Amazon's free cash flow could be -$17 billion by 2026 and Alphabet's could plummet nearly 90% this year [10] - The market sentiment has shifted rapidly from fear of missing out (FOMO) to a defensive stance against tail risks, reflecting growing concerns over the sustainability of such high spending [8] Group 3 - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang supports the substantial investment in AI infrastructure, describing it as reasonable and sustainable, driven by high demand for computational power [12][15] - Huang emphasizes that as long as companies continue to profit from AI, they will keep increasing their investments, highlighting the potential for ongoing growth in the sector [15] - He notes that this investment wave represents one of the largest infrastructure builds in human history, driven by the needs of AI companies and large-scale enterprises [15]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 潜龙悟用 来源：雪球 进入这篇文章之前 ， 我们知道目前现货黄金的价格是5000美元/盎司 。 现在 ， 我要你先花2分钟 ， 仔细思考以下几个问题 ： 1 、 你觉得半年后黄金价格大概会在哪 ？ 2 、 你觉得5年后黄金价格大概会在哪 ？ 3 、 你觉得30年后黄金价格大概会在哪 ？ 一定要 " 仔细思考 " ， 可以把你的想法写在评论区里 …… 下面我们进入正题 。 黄金 ， 首先是一种商品 ， 其次才是一般等价物 。 因此 ， 研究黄金价格变动 ， 先要把黄金作为商品来研究 。 马克思说 ： 商品的价格随供需 变化围绕价值上下波动 ， 而商品的价值量由其生产所需的社会必要劳动时间决定 。 翻译成白话 ， 就是说黄金作为一种商品 ， 其 【 价值 】 由 " 必要生产成本 " 决定 ， 黄金 【 价格 】 的波动虽直接受供需变化影响 ， 但 【 价值 】 才是 【 价格 】 的最终锚定 。 因此 ， 分析金价 波动最关键的就是搞清楚两件事 ： 一个是分析不同期限下黄金的供需动 ...

来源：雪球 01 第一类生意 其中最好的一类是 拥有极致定价权且无需追加资本的生意 ， 芒格认为这是商业世界的圣杯 。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 勤勤的财商教室 若能找到这样的公司 ， 并在合理价格买入 ， 基本上就无需再做什么 ， 只需坐视其如神奇果树般 ， 不仅每年结出更多果实 ， 且无需浇水施肥 。 为何 ？ 芒格认为这是最好的生意 ， 因为在这个时代 ， 最大的敌人是通货膨胀 ， 它是一种无形的税收 。 对大多数公司而言 ， 通胀是致命的 ， 原材料 、 工人工资 、 房租等成本上涨 。 比如某些拥有独家配方的医药公司 ， 比如某些必需的金融服务软件 ， 这些公司是通胀的克星 。 当其他公司因成本上涨而抱怨时 ， 他们只需轻 松提价 ， 就能将成本转嫁给消费者 ， 甚至获利更多 。 这是第一类 ， 也是最完美的生意 。 但这类公司非常稀缺 ， 且通常价格昂贵 。 在咱们A股 ， 您能找出哪些公司 ， 拥有极致的定价权 ， 茅台 ？ 格力 ？ 长江电力 ？ 宁德时代 ？ 寒武纪 ？ 若是一家普通制造 ...