Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector is currently considered one of the highest value-for-money areas in the market, despite skepticism about the recovery of consumer spending [5][6]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - Many investors express doubt about the consumer recovery, believing that without economic improvement, investments in this sector are not worthwhile. However, the lack of visible recovery is what keeps consumer stocks and ETFs at relatively low prices, presenting a unique opportunity [6]. - The stock market operates like a chess game, where the focus should be on future moves rather than immediate market fluctuations. Waiting for clear signs of recovery may lead to missed opportunities [7]. - Investors often mistakenly believe that to save time and costs, they should invest in popular sectors. However, overvalued stocks may not provide future growth potential, making such investments a poor use of time and capital [9]. Group 2: Historical Examples and Value Investing - Historical examples, such as Moutai's stock price rising from 118.01 yuan per share in 2014 to 2627.88 yuan per share by 2021, illustrate the potential for significant returns from undervalued stocks [11]. - The true source of substantial profits comes from buying at low prices, which reflects a wise use of time and capital [12]. - Notable investors like Charlie Munger advocate for contrarian thinking, suggesting that the best investment opportunities arise when others are fearful and undervalue certain stocks [13]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions and Consumer Sector - The current A-share market is no longer characterized by widespread undervaluation, with most sectors having already performed. The consumer sector remains one of the few areas that align with Munger's investment philosophy [14]. - For investors struggling with the psychological barriers of a prolonged consumer downturn, a systematic investment approach, such as dollar-cost averaging, can be beneficial. This strategy allows for accumulating shares over time, leveraging the extended low period to build a solid foundation for future gains [15].

Core Concept - The article discusses the concept of "economic moats" as defined by Morningstar, emphasizing the importance of a company's ability to generate excess returns over a long period [6][7][8]. Group 1: Economic Moat Definition and Characteristics - Economic moats are defined as a company's ability to maintain excess returns, with a wider moat indicating a slower decline into mediocrity [8]. - Morningstar categorizes economic moats into three types: Wide Moat, Narrow Moat, and No Moat, with specific quantitative definitions and characteristics for each [10]. - A company with a Wide Moat is expected to sustain excess returns for at least 20 years, while a Narrow Moat can maintain excess returns for at least 10 years [9][10]. Group 2: Importance of Valuation - Valuation is crucial in assessing moat companies, with Morningstar advocating for a dynamic valuation standard based on the certainty of a company's business model [17][18]. - Different levels of uncertainty in a company's valuation require varying degrees of discount for buying and premium for selling [20]. - The article highlights that a more nuanced approach to valuation, based on business models, is more aligned with market realities than a blanket tolerance for good companies [21]. Group 3: ETF and Performance Comparison - Morningstar's moat investment philosophy is encapsulated in the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT), which has been in existence since 2012 [22]. - As of the end of 2025, the MOAT ETF underperformed the S&P 500 index, primarily due to the recent market dynamics dominated by a few large-cap stocks [23][25]. - Despite underperforming the S&P 500, the MOAT ETF still showed better performance compared to an equal-weighted S&P 500 index [25]. Group 4: Evolution of Moat Concept - The article references Pat Dorsey, who expanded on the moat concept after leaving Morningstar, introducing categories like Legacy Moat and Reinvestment Moat [27][28]. - Legacy Moat companies have strong competitive advantages but limited growth opportunities, while Reinvestment Moat companies can reinvest profits into high-return opportunities [28]. - The article also discusses the emergence of Capital Light Compounders, which leverage network effects for growth with minimal capital investment [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics in China, highlighting a significant divergence between traditional economy stocks and emerging sectors like non-ferrous metals and commercial aerospace, indicating a transition from a "structural bull market" to a "broad bull market" as the Shanghai Composite Index surpasses 4000 points [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The divergence in market performance reflects a "new-old momentum transition," with non-ferrous metals and commercial aerospace experiencing substantial growth driven by macroeconomic and industrial logic [3][4]. - Non-ferrous metals are benefiting from a multi-dimensional resonance, including global energy transition, AI development, geopolitical uncertainties, and supply constraints, leading to a strong demand cycle [3][4]. - The rise of commercial aerospace signifies the industrialization of "new productive forces," with increasing satellite internet deployment and significant demand for rocket manufacturing and satellite development [4]. Group 2: Traditional Economy - The weakness in traditional economy stocks indicates a market waiting for performance turning points and policy catalysts, particularly in key areas like real estate that impact the consumption chain [4][5]. - Despite current underperformance, traditional stocks are expected to recover as the market transitions to a broader bull phase, with historical trends suggesting that healthy bull markets typically involve rotation across multiple sectors [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The core strategy for navigating the current market involves "focusing on prosperity, balanced allocation, and dynamic adjustment," emphasizing the importance of aligning with industry trends and maintaining core positions in strong sectors [5][6]. - Investors are advised to consider ETFs covering diverse non-ferrous metals and the entire commercial aerospace supply chain to mitigate risks and capitalize on sector growth [5][6]. - Attention should also be given to potential recovery signals in "mid-tier" and "traditional" stocks, particularly in consumer and financial sectors, as the market evolves [5][6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to exhibit an "N-shaped" trajectory in 2026, with potential highs in the first quarter followed by consolidation in the second and third quarters, before reaching new highs in the latter half of the year [6][7]. - Future excess returns are expected to stem from the industrialization of "new productive forces" and the cyclical recovery and value reassessment of the traditional economy, necessitating a balanced investment approach [7].

我们如何来判断一个公司的当前的股价处在周期的什么位置？常见指标，市盈率=行业市盈率均值的*0.8，市净率？这些指标确实能判断出股价是否 被低估，还是被高估，但是被低估的拐点什么时候出现？ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 悟道-2025 来源：雪球 这里聊到的周期，其实范围很大，很笼统，因为行业分明显周期性行业和弱周期性行业。就算是弱周期行业的股票，股价也会有周期，我们这次不 讨论行业周期，就单纯的讨论股价的周期。 我个人理解，任何一个公司的股价都必定这样的周期，估值合理→股价被高估→估值合理→股价被低估，如此循环，这也是格雷厄姆的价值回归理 论。 就像五粮液很多雪球网友都认为120的时候股价已经被低估，但是还是跌了，当跌到105元的时候，我认为已经触底了，不可能跌倒105以内了，但 是股票没有什么不可能，后来又陆续跌到了101元，还会不会继续跌？ 谁也无法保证，那么拐点什么时候到来？虽然站在价值投资的角度105和101的股价其实没有区别，但是会影响我心情（可能是入市时间短，修炼内 功不够）。所以我一直在思考，如 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 今天市场震荡盘整，午后创业板和科创板翻红，截至收盘，沪指跌0.96%，深指跌0.66%，创业板指涨1.27%，科创综指涨0.08%。 沪深京三市成交总额2.86万亿，相比上一交易日缩量3970亿。 板块方面，贵金属、工业金属全线回调，中金黄金、山东黄金跌停；农业股异军突起领涨两市，算力概念反攻，天孚通信涨超10%。 一月收官，沪指本月累计涨3.76% ， 呈现 " 冲高后窄幅震荡 " 的走势 ， 一月中旬再创十年新高后小幅回落 ， 最终站稳4100点关口上方。 01 贵金属全线大跌 万亿矿茅大跌超7% 贵金属板块集体重挫，中金黄金、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、四川黄金、招金黄金、湖南白银等纷纷跌停。 | 小晖更远 | 43.20 -10.00% | | 30.22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SH600988 | | | | | 四川黄金 | 66.18 -10.00% | | 66.13 | | SZ001337 | | | | | 山东黄金 SH600547 | 54.55 -10.00% | | 51.94 | | 山金国际 SZ000975 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 晏云社 来源：雪球 1月29日，黄金价格经历了 " 冲高-跳水-反弹 " 的史诗级巨震 。 以下是结合最新情况 ， 对黄金股后续走势的深入分析 。 巨震全景与直接冲击 首先 ， 梳理一下本次巨震的具体情况及其对黄金股的直接影响 ： 1. 行情剧震 ： 从暴涨到闪崩 黄金 ： 一度逼近5600美元的历史新高 ， 随后急速跳水超5% ， 最低跌破5100美元 ， 日内振幅近500美元 ， 最终收盘跌约0.7% 。 白银 ： 波动更为剧烈 ， 从涨4%转为一度暴跌超8% 。 股市反应 ： A股贵金属板块大幅低开 。 美股黄金股也全线收跌 ， 盎格鲁黄金 、 纽蒙特矿业等龙头跌幅在3%-7% 。 2. 巨震核心原因 需求支撑 ： 世界黄金协会数据显示四季度全球央行继续净购金230吨 ， 机构如瑞银也维持看多 （ 目标6200美元/盎司 ） 。 市场普遍认为这是多重短期因素叠加共振的结果 ： 技术性获利了结 ： 年初至今涨幅巨大 （ 金价1月涨超24% ） ， 市场进入极端超买区间 ， 高 ...

作者： 股市马斯克 来源：雪球 黄金白银继续狂飙 ， 黄金三个交易日上涨500美金直接从5000冲破5500 ， 白银同步走强 ， 本月涨幅65.65% ， 创下119.51美元历史新高。 消息面上依然是多空交织的一晚 ， 但是利空较小 ， 利好更大。 1 、 贝森特强调强势美元 在前一晚特没谱对美元汇率表示满意之后 ， 财长贝森特重新强调 美国的一贯政策是维持强势美元 ， 同时表示绝对不会干预日元汇率。 此前日本因为债务危机汇率持续贬值 ， 纽约联储配合对日元汇率进行询价 ， 导致美元大幅贬值 ， 日元升值。 但是贝森特的最新表态打破了市场对美国配合日本调整汇率的预期 ， 导致日元重新贬值 ， 美元升值 ， 黄金白银短线调整。 但是这种利空基本可以忽略不计 ， 跌幅已经完全被后面的涨幅消化。 2 、 伊朗风险进一步提升 根据最新消息显示 ， 由于伊朗在谈判方面不是很配合 ， 特没谱表示 对伊朗发动进攻的可能性正在提升。 白宫内部也有多名官员表示支持对伊朗采取行动 ， 特没谱已经下令 周五开始对伊朗实施海上封锁。 地缘风险进一步升温推动黄金白银价格大幅走高。 3 、 鲍威尔表态中性偏乐观 ↑点击上面图片 加雪 ...

贵州茅台大涨8.6% 沉默中的白酒，不鸣则已，一鸣惊人！白酒板块午后就像突然坐上了火箭，一飞冲天。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 三大指数涨跌不一， 截至收盘 ， 沪指涨0.16% ， 深成指跌0.3% ， 创业板指跌0.57% 。沪深两市成交额3.23万亿 ， 较上一个交易日放量2646 亿 。 今天表现最惊艳的要数白酒，贵州茅台罕见大涨超8%，其余白酒股几乎全部涨停。 贵金属继续上涨， 西部黄金7天4板 ， 中国黄金5连板。油气股延续强势 ， 洲际油气7天5板 ，房地产板块震荡反弹 ， 大悦城 、 三湘印象 、 我 爱我家涨停。 下跌方面 ， 芯片产业链下挫 ， 美埃科技 、 京仪装备跌超9%。 一起来看下今天的热点。 01 白酒一飞冲天 贵州茅台盘中一度逼近涨停，截至收盘大涨8.6%。 五粮液和泸州老窖强势封上涨停板，此外水井坊、迎驾贡酒、洋河股份、山西汾酒等白酒板块个股几乎全部涨停，板块涨幅高达9.68%，高居行业 板块榜首。 | SH600199 | IU.SU + IU.U470 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 章导演不 SZ000995 | 14.48 ...

以下文章来源于风云君的研究笔记 ，作者专注于私募研究的 风云君的研究笔记 . 深耕私募行业多年，专注私募基金各个策略以及资产配置，希望能分享给大家更深入、更专业的私募那 些事。 最近，大家对商品的关注度越来越高。 甚至有人推测：去年A股牛市，今年商品可能也要迎来一轮牛市。 如果真是这样，CTA大概是其中最受益的策略之一。 不过到底是不是真的商品牛市，谁也说不准。只不过从已有的一些信号看，今年商品市场确实值得 期待。 另一方面，从宏微观角度看，趋势动能也在积累。 一方面，市场已出现一些明显的趋势苗头。 比如从去年7月开始，先是"反内卷"带动的黑色、能化品种上涨；全年地缘冲突推升黄金，随后在 10-11月美联储降息预期下再度走强；再到近期有色板块的活跃表现。不少商品价格已经动起来 了。 各商品价格趋势上涨。 整体波动率明显上升。 这样的商品市场环境中，哪类CTA更容易抓住机会？风云君认为可以重点关注这两类： 中长周期趋势 CTA 趋势CTA策略天然带有Beta敞口，很适合单边行情，能吃到趋势带来的收益。 而中长周期趋势CTA策略，因为交易频率较低，一旦抓住一波主趋势，更容易从头吃到尾，盈利幅 度往往更大。 另外， ...

以下文章来源于评研阁 ，作者评研阁 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 评研阁 . 价值为基，趋势为矛，十年十倍（备用号：复利艺术家） ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 作者： 评研阁 来源：雪球 前几天聊到商品牛市，最近研究了商品资源里先启动的有色，和大家聊聊底层逻辑和重点方向。 有色板块并不是今年才涨，去年其实已经很嗨， 全年涨了快100%，领跑很多行业 ，只是有色地位特殊，再加上本身周期性极强，所以今年开年后 依然涨势如虹。 去年大家最大的感受是资金都在抱团科技，那今年最大的感受就是资金都在抱团有色。 一、回顾2025年 2025年有色为什么涨？ 简单说就是，美联储要降息了，美元有点靠不住了，大家开始抢实物资产了。 看看黄金，COME金价一年涨了64%，央行们（尤其是咱们）还在不停地买买买，这不是投机，这是国家层面的战略配置，说明黄金的压舱石属性 被空前重视。 不止黄金，工业金属也牛，铜、锡领头，一个涨44%，一个涨43%。为啥？因为库存一直在降（LME铜库存少了45%），而新的铜矿又跟不上。另 一边，新能源（光伏、电车）和AI数据中心像个吞金兽，疯 ...