Group 1 - The core investment strategies can be summarized into three main methods: earning through foresight, exploiting market panic, and capitalizing on cycles [3][4]. - Earning through foresight involves identifying companies with strong future potential early on, allowing for investment before their value is realized [3]. - Exploiting market panic refers to buying undervalued stocks during market downturns, particularly blue-chip stocks and fundamentally sound turnaround companies, which can yield significant returns when the market recovers [4]. Group 2 - The cycle-based strategy focuses on the cyclical nature of commodities, where buying during industry downturns and selling during peaks can lead to consistent profits [4]. - The three strategies require different attributes: foresight relies on cognitive and logical reasoning, panic exploitation depends on conviction and independence, while cycle investing demands patience and perseverance [5]. - The principles of investment are closely aligned with broader life principles, suggesting that the approach to investing mirrors the approach to personal conduct [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of caution in a bullish market, using the historical example of Sir Isaac Newton's financial losses during the South Sea Bubble to illustrate the risks of emotional trading and market speculation [3][4][18]. Group 1: Historical Context - In 1720, the South Sea Company received a charter from the British government to trade with South America, leading to widespread speculation and a dramatic increase in stock prices from £128 to over £1000 within six months, an increase of nearly 8 times [8][10]. - Newton initially profited by investing £7000 and selling at a 100% return, but later succumbed to the fear of missing out and reinvested £20,000, which was equivalent to ten years of his salary [10][11]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Human Emotion - The article highlights that even a genius like Newton could not predict market behavior, emphasizing that the underlying emotions of greed and fear have remained constant throughout history [13][15]. - The fear of missing out can lead investors to make irrational decisions, as seen in Newton's case when he re-entered the market at its peak, resulting in significant losses when the bubble burst [11][18]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article advises investors to control their risk by managing their positions and avoiding going "all in" during market euphoria, suggesting that maintaining some cash reserves is crucial for stability and future opportunities [19]. - It emphasizes the importance of taking profits and reassessing one's portfolio during high market sentiment, rather than being swept up in the excitement [19].

以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 睿知睿见 . 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：睿知睿见 来源：雪球 2026年开年 ， 我相信很多人感到了世界有些许不同 ！ 但又说不出是哪里不同 。 两件最典型的事件让2026年显得十分的特别 ， 一个是美国绑架了委内瑞拉总统 ， 另一件是中国日本启动了釜底抽薪的反制 。 中美两国都在清扫自家门户和周边 。 全球秩序重塑将在未来几年展开 ！ 秩序的改变 ， 也会使得资产的价格波动变得非常异常 ， 并且很难用传统经济学来解释 。 这里面就有机会 ， 也暗藏巨大风险 。 01 但现在这种思考框架可能就失效了 。 传统经济学失效 经济学理论是假设所有人都是理性人 。 后来有不少学者反驳 ， 人不可能是绝对理性的 。 然而 ， 当两个超级大国开始斗狠时 ， 经济学所定义的理性将让位 。 经济学的理性主要是基于对效率的理性考虑 。 比如 ， 以前哪里生产成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market trends, highlighting the rise of AI applications and the impact of regulatory changes on financing margins in the stock market [2][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.31%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 0.56% and 0.82% respectively. The total market turnover reached 39,661 billion yuan, an increase of 2,673 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - AI application sectors are leading the market, particularly the "GEO" concept and internet e-commerce, while energy metals are undergoing adjustments [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved an increase in the minimum financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% for new financing contracts, aimed at reducing leverage and protecting investors' rights [5][6]. - This adjustment follows a previous reduction in August 2023, which had led to increased financing activity and market liquidity [5]. Group 3: AI Applications - The "GEO" concept, related to generative engine optimization, is gaining traction in the A-share market, with companies like Kai Chun and Yi Wang Yi Chuang seeing significant stock price increases of 20% [9]. - The GEO market is projected to reach a scale of 100 billion USD by 2026, driven by the shift in search engine traffic towards AI chatbots and virtual agents [11]. - AI e-commerce is evolving, with Google partnering with major retailers to enhance its AI model's shopping capabilities, indicating a significant shift in retail interactions [11]. Group 4: Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector saw notable gains, with stocks like Tongyuan Petroleum and Keli Co. rising by 12.53% and 14.56% respectively [15]. - As of January 13, WTI crude oil futures settled at 60.93 USD per barrel, reflecting a 2.7% increase, while Brent crude oil futures settled at 65.47 USD per barrel, up by 2.5% [17]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, are expected to influence oil prices, with potential price increases of 10 to 20 USD per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the pricing logic of non-ferrous metals, emphasizing the rise of strategic resource populism as a key factor influencing market pricing, particularly after the implementation of equal tariffs in the second half of 2025 [2][3]. Non-Ferrous Metals Market Analysis - The traditional pricing framework for non-ferrous metals has been driven by global macro liquidity, economic expectations, and the US dollar index, but recent years have shown a divergence between metal prices and global economic indicators [4][6]. - The current economic environment is characterized by low global PMI levels, yet non-ferrous metal prices have outperformed expectations, indicating a shift in market dynamics influenced by monetary attributes and strategic reserve demands [4][7]. Trading Framework and Historical Performance - The core trading framework focuses on the economic cycle, particularly inventory cycles, with liquidity as an important extension. However, this framework has faced challenges in the non-ferrous metals sector due to unique supply and demand dynamics [6][7]. - Historical trading experiences highlight the importance of adhering to a core framework while recognizing the evolving market conditions, leading to successful investments in precious metals and strategic small metals [9][10]. Sector-Specific Insights - Precious Metals (Gold, Silver): The article notes a strong performance in gold and silver due to anticipated changes in US monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, with significant gains observed over the past three years [9][10]. - Strategic Small Metals (Antimony, Tungsten, Rare Earths): The author emphasizes early positioning in strategic small metals, benefiting from export controls and geopolitical shifts, resulting in substantial price increases [11][12]. - Industrial Metals (Copper, Aluminum): Despite a generally positive long-term outlook, concerns remain regarding the sustainability of demand due to ongoing issues in the real estate sector and uncertainties in US economic growth [13][14]. 2026 Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - The market for non-ferrous metals is expected to remain active, but the author advocates for a cautious approach, focusing on identifying clear entry points rather than participating in the current market excitement [16][17]. - Industrial metals are viewed with caution due to unresolved concerns about the real estate market and the sustainability of AI-driven capital expenditures, with a recommendation to monitor these sectors closely [17][18]. - For strategic small metals, the long-term outlook remains positive, but current high prices necessitate waiting for favorable entry points [20][21]. - Precious metals continue to show long-term benefits, but short-term caution is advised due to market volatility and the need for clear buying signals [21][22]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while the non-ferrous metals market is currently vibrant, the focus should remain on waiting for definitive buying opportunities rather than engaging in all market trends, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategic decision-making in investment [22][24].

做配置的小雪 . 曾经幻想暴富，现实变成暴负，投资只能慢慢变富～ 以下文章来源于做配置的小雪 ，作者做配置的小雪 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 最近，刷到知名经济学家付鹏的一条短视频，视频内容的核心主旨是： 年轻人本金少，炒股就要赌一把！ 付鹏的理由如下： 1、钱少，就应该追求高 收益率 。 因为"钱少和资产过亿、过千万的这种级别，投资的逻辑思维是不一样的，本金500万，赚5%就很开心了，本金只有50万，赚10倍才有500万"。 2、年轻人更适合在股市里赌博。 因为"你是年轻人，没有孩子也没有负担，赌一把可能从1到10，再赌一把可能从10到100"。 一、"钱少，就应该追逐高 收益率 "？ 错！资本市场人人平等，不会因为钱多钱少就区别对待。 3、让年轻人复利，就是忽悠年轻人。 因为"就算玩复利，你知道复利增长20倍，需要多长时间吗？所以我们不应该在这忽悠年轻人，让年轻人稳定投资、复利增长，是在给他们洗脑"。 听起来字字珠玑，非常为我们年轻人着想，但事实上，付鹏画的饼很香，但很毒！ 投资是相当逆人性的，任何顺应人性、让我们爽到的观点，都要保持警惕。 难道本金500万的有钱人，就不想要高收益率吗？ 当然想 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reviews the performance of various private equity strategies in 2025, highlighting the dominance of quantitative long strategies and the challenges faced by subjective long strategies, while also discussing macro strategies and CTA performance. Group 1: Quantitative Long Strategies - Quantitative long strategies have emerged as the top-performing strategy in 2025, continuing their strong performance from previous years [4] - In July 2025, the number of quantitative strategies among billion-yuan private equity surpassed subjective strategies for the first time, indicating a growing investor interest [6] - The high market trading volume, averaging 1.73 trillion RMB per day, has facilitated the success of quantitative strategies by allowing them to capture small price discrepancies [9][11] - The frequent style switching in the market has favored quantitative strategies, which can adapt quickly to changing market conditions and capture opportunities across various sectors [13] Group 2: Subjective Long Strategies - Subjective long strategies have seen a resurgence in 2025 after a period of stagnation, but they have underperformed compared to quantitative strategies [15][17] - Despite achieving positive returns, many subjective strategies are facing significant redemption pressures as investors seek to recover from previous losses [21] - Successful subjective long funds tend to focus on aggressive positioning and sector concentration, particularly in technology growth sectors [19] Group 3: Macro Strategies - Macro strategies have maintained their relevance in 2025, benefiting from a favorable market environment and delivering satisfactory returns [23][26] - The performance of macro strategies was uneven, with a lack of clear macro themes in the first half of the year, followed by a clearer structural market in the second half [29][30] - The increased negative correlation between assets in the latter half of the year allowed macro strategies to effectively hedge risks [33] Group 4: CTA Strategies - CTA strategies achieved an overall positive return of 19% in 2025, but there was significant performance divergence among different CTA sub-strategies [35][37] - The commodity market exhibited a "structural market" characteristic, with substantial differences in returns across various commodities, benefiting certain CTA strategies [43] - Long-cycle CTA strategies performed better in a volatile market by filtering out noise, while short-cycle strategies struggled with frequent trading signals [48][50] Group 5: Neutral Strategies - Neutral strategies generated positive returns in 2025, but the accumulation of these returns was not smooth [53] - The performance of neutral strategies improved before August, supported by strong small-cap stocks, but faced challenges afterward due to increased volatility [57][59] - Overall, while neutral strategies provided acceptable returns, they lagged behind the more aggressive strategies that achieved over 20% returns [61]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index ending a 17-day winning streak, closing down 0.64% at 4138.76 points. The Shenzhen Component fell 1.37% to 14169.40 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.96% to 3321.89 points. The total trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 36.991 billion, an increase of 54.1 billion from the previous day, setting a new historical high [2]. Sector Performance - Most industry sectors saw declines, with precious metals, medical services, mining, and biopharmaceuticals leading in gains. In contrast, aerospace, communication equipment, computer devices, shipbuilding, semiconductors, and electronic chemicals faced significant losses [2]. - The AI application concept stocks rose against the trend, with over ten component stocks hitting the daily limit. The AI medical concept remained active, with stocks like Meinian Health and Hongbo Pharmaceutical achieving consecutive limit-ups [2][8]. Electric Power Sector - The electric power sector saw a sudden surge in the afternoon, with stocks like Tebian Electric Apparatus and Sanbian Technology hitting the daily limit. Other companies in the transformer industry also experienced significant gains [3][5]. AI and Energy Demand - The explosion of AI has led to a surge in electricity consumption in data centers, causing increased electricity costs for residents in some areas of the U.S. Former President Trump stated that tech giants must bear the costs of building AI data centers to avoid raising electricity bills for Americans. Elon Musk emphasized that energy (watts) will become the essence of currency in the AI and robotics era [6]. - TrendForce analysts noted that North America is experiencing strong demand for transformer markets due to aging grid updates and the massive energy needs of AI data centers. The supply gap for power transformers and distribution transformers in North America is estimated at 30% and 6%, respectively [6]. AI Medical Sector - The AI medical industry is entering a golden development period, with innovations in medical imaging AI-assisted diagnosis, intelligent surgical robots, and AI platforms for drug development accelerating. The ecosystem is forming from algorithm development to product application [12]. - Recent collaborations, such as the one between NVIDIA and Eli Lilly, aim to enhance drug development through advanced computational capabilities [11]. Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector, which had been a star performer, saw a significant pullback, with the theme index dropping 5.83%. Over 40 stocks in this sector hit the daily limit down, indicating a market correction after a strong rally [14][17]. - Despite being recognized as a new economic growth engine, the commercial aerospace sector faces risks due to its reliance on government and enterprise clients, and the sustainability of profit models in the consumer market remains uncertain [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on controllable factors in investment strategies rather than being overwhelmed by external events and market noise [4][6][14]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Establish a "anti-fragile" asset allocation structure to mitigate risks from market fluctuations, ensuring that investments are diversified across different assets, regions, and cycles [9][10]. - Maintain a cash reserve to avoid the "All in" scenario, which can lead to a loss of options during market extremes [10][11]. - Implement an "automatic pilot" system for decision-making, such as regular investments, rebalancing, and disciplined stop-loss and take-profit strategies to reduce emotional responses to market news [11][12]. Group 2: Long-term Perspective - Cultivate a long-term investment mindset, recognizing that many market-moving events are temporary blips in the broader economic growth trend [13]. - Understand that while external uncertainties will persist, a resilient financial structure can turn potential disasters into mere noise [13][14]. - The focus should be on building a strong financial foundation, allowing time and external factors to play out without panic [15][16].

以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有 据。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：六亿居士 来源：雪球 最近一段时间，黄金再次站到了市场的聚光灯下。 国内首饰金价多款突破1400元/克，现货黄金折算人民币站稳1000元/克上方，纽约现货黄金价格强势冲破4600美元/盎司关口，持续刷新历史纪 录，黄金市场热度再攀高峰，成为全球关注的焦点。 每当类似场景出现 ， 投资者的情绪往往会迅速分化 。 我们可能一边有 担心错过的焦虑 ， 一边是对 高位风险的警惕 。 表面看是分歧 ， 实则 指向同一个问题 ： 黄金 ， 到底该怎么配 ？ 最近一段时间 ， 后台留言中提及黄金的频次明显上升 。 这种在 " 想配 " 与 " 不敢配 " 之间反复摇摆的状态 ， 正是当下不少投资者的真实写 照 。 从资产配置的角度看 ， 黄金确实是一种重要的配置资产 ， 但它的核心作用 ， 并不是 ...