中泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司官方公众订阅号，投资路上的好朋友。 以下文章来源于中泰证券资管 ，作者文/鲁资资 中泰证券资管 . ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 中泰证券资管 "大事频发"是许多投资者近期的深切感受。地缘冲突、政策转向、巨头财报、重要会议……常常是前一个议题还没搞清楚，新的议题又已跃入视 野。在这种快节奏、高密度的信息冲击下，人很容易陷入焦虑，担心有片刻"离线"，就会错过什么大事。 可能引发市场震荡的大事那么多，投资如何心安？这也是近期小编和同事们常讨论的问题。以下，是我们的一些思考整理。 一是接受"不可为"，聚焦"可为处"。 是的，地缘冲突也好，贸易纠纷走向也好， 投资中有些事情，是我们必须接受的"已知未知"。 也唯有接受"不可为"的存在，我们才能腾出精力， 更为明智地分配自己有限的注意力，聚焦那些清晰、具体、可耕耘的"可为处"。 哪些是"可为处"？制定计划、优化成本、管理行为、控制情绪、提高对于所持标的的认知……这些事情平淡、枯燥，远不如追逐热点、高谈阔论 来得刺激和诱人，但往往是这些通过 ...

Market Overview - The capital market experienced a significant downturn, with major indices in the Asia-Pacific region, including the Hang Seng Index and A-shares, dropping over 2%. The South Korean stock market fell more than 5%, triggering a circuit breaker. The futures market saw widespread declines in commodity prices, with many contracts hitting their daily limit down [2]. Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector faced a dramatic decline, with over 30 stocks hitting the limit down. Key players such as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold saw declines of 10% [5]. - Futures prices for silver, platinum, palladium, lithium carbonate, nickel, tin, copper, aluminum, and crude oil all fell sharply, with gold futures dropping over 15%. This followed a period of irrational price surges driven by factors like de-dollarization and geopolitical risks [7]. - Market institutions have mixed views on the future of precious metals. Citigroup warned that half of the current risk premium for gold may dissipate by late 2026, while other institutions like CITIC Securities maintain bullish forecasts, predicting gold could reach $6,000 per ounce by 2026 [8]. Semiconductor and AI Sector - The South Korean stock market's decline was largely attributed to the semiconductor and AI supply chain, with major companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix experiencing significant drops of nearly 6% and over 8%, respectively. The A-share storage chip sector also saw substantial declines, with multiple stocks falling over 10% [10]. - Reports indicate that major manufacturers are tightening order reviews to mitigate market volatility caused by excessive orders from some clients [12]. Electric Grid Equipment Sector - The electric grid equipment sector performed well against the market trend, with companies like Baobian Electric and Hancable hitting the daily limit up, and TBEA rising over 4% [14]. - The global AI computing power construction is entering a rapid growth phase, with high-power and stable electricity supply becoming critical for computing clusters. Transformer factories are reportedly operating at full capacity, with some orders extending to 2027 [16]. - The State Grid announced a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a 40% increase from the previous plan, indicating a historical high in investment [17].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：股市马斯克 来源：雪球 上周五黄金白银夜盘加速下跌 ， 单日跌幅创下45年来最大下跌记录。 黄金现货单日下跌9.14% ， 白银期货单日下跌26.37% ， 今早亚洲时段开盘跌幅继续扩大。 1 、 沃什当选只是下跌的导火索 消息面上很多人将下跌的原因归结为鹰派的沃什当选美联储主席 ， 但是这仅仅是导火索 ， 并非根本原因。 我们需要把这次的下跌和今年以来黄金白银的疯狂上涨结合起来。 今年以来黄金现货最大涨幅高达29.64% ， 白银期货最大涨幅71.58% ， 同样是40余年来的最佳单月表现。 在这样的极端行情下 ， 市场本身也积累了大量的杠杆资金 ， 当黄金白银被集体抛售的时候杠杆资金因触发保证金规则 ， 发生了空杀多 ， 多杀 多的强制抛售行为 ， 引发市场剧烈震荡。 所以这次大幅抛售行为导火索是基本面因素 ， 但是 真正放大跌幅的是资金面因素。 2 、 沃什当选为什么会引发市场如此恐慌 ？ 关于沃什的观点我上周五也发文进行了解读 ， 说这届美联储主席可能比我们想象的更鹰派，沃 ...

以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，研究指数基金(ETF)与大类资产配置框架，关注认知、人性和纪律。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 六亿居士 来源：雪球 基于实际的各种因素 ， A股与港股的指数往往是我们资产配置的主要选择 。 但基于多元化 、 分散风险的思路 ， 大类资产和全球化配置是常见 的进阶之路 。 不过 ， 需要提醒的是 ， 跨境ETF受汇率波动 、 额度限制 、 溢价折价 、 交易时差 、 市场成熟度不一等因素影响 ， 都可能让持有体验和初设 预期不一致 。 我们选配跨境 ， 主要是为了分散风险 ， 而不是追求极致收益率 。 一般来说 ， 在选配海外指数时 ， 首选成熟市场的主要宽基 ， 这一点跟A股 、 H股思路是一致的 。 各地市场的核心宽基 ， 比如标普500 、 纳斯达克100等 ， 代表了美股市场的平均水平 ， 是配置跨境ETF时的主要考虑 。 这一点 ， 无论是巴 菲特 ， 还是查理芒格抑或其他知名投资者 ， 都有类 ...

Group 1 - The core idea is that AI is still in its early stages and has a long way to go, with significant capital expenditures being made in the technology and telecommunications sectors, reminiscent of previous infrastructure cycles [10][11][12] - The current capital expenditure cycle is compared to historical infrastructure waves, with expectations that it could push the capital expenditure to GDP ratio to 12% [5][13] - The report highlights rapid expansion in AI infrastructure, with data center spending expected to reach $1.4 trillion annually by 2030, significantly up from $500 billion [17][18] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of being on the right side of change, particularly in the software market, which is projected to grow significantly, with potential growth rates of 19% in bear markets and up to 54% in bull markets [19][20] - The emergence of new companies with astonishing productivity levels, such as Tether, which achieved a per capita output of $50 million, indicates a potential for unprecedented productivity gains [22] - The integration of biotechnology and AI is expected to reduce drug development costs significantly, with estimates suggesting costs could drop from $2.4 billion to around $700 million over the next four years [24][26] Group 3 - The report discusses the potential of reusable rockets and the new industry of space data centers, highlighting the significant market opportunities that could arise from these technologies [28][30] - The analysis of autonomous vehicles suggests that the market could reach a valuation of approximately $34 trillion by 2030, driven by the efficiency of autonomous driving technology [43][44] - The logistics sector is also expected to see substantial cost reductions through automation, with drone delivery costs projected to decrease dramatically [46] Group 4 - The current period is described as a "golden time" for innovation, with many startups referencing the research to estimate market sizes and drive their innovations [48][50] - The report concludes that the innovation cycle is gaining momentum, suggesting that the current environment is conducive to significant advancements and market transformations [52]

Core Viewpoint - SpaceX is planning to deploy up to 1 million satellites, which is 70 times the current number of active satellites in orbit, and is considering an IPO with a target valuation of $1.5 trillion, making it potentially the largest IPO in history [1][9][10]. Group 1: SpaceX IPO and Valuation - SpaceX's IPO is projected to have a target valuation of $1.5 trillion, which would surpass Saudi Aramco's IPO and become the largest on record [9]. - The expected financing could exceed $50 billion, significantly higher than previous major IPOs, such as Amazon and Microsoft [10][11]. Group 2: Business Structure and Revenue - SpaceX is expected to achieve revenues of $15 billion to $16 billion by 2025, with an EBITDA of approximately $8 billion [13]. - The Starlink service is the primary revenue driver, contributing 50% to 80% of the company's income, with over 9 million users and around 9,500 satellites launched since 2019 [13]. Group 3: Satellite Deployment Plans - SpaceX has submitted an application to the FCC to deploy a satellite system consisting of up to 1 million satellites, aimed at creating a space-based data center network [16][19]. - This plan is seen as a move to establish a computing empire in space, utilizing solar energy and laser links for data routing [19]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Projections - Analysts predict that the satellite launch numbers will increase from 5,000 to 50,000 annually between 2025 and 2040, driven by advancements in solar technology and the demand for AI capabilities [24]. - The market for photovoltaic cells in the satellite sector is expected to reach 328.8 billion yuan, with a potential growth of over 30 times compared to the short-term market [24].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 来源：雪球 本次黄金大跌也还是源于特朗普，以分享思路为主：为什么沃什"降息+缩表"整体可操作性不强，不会终结黄金牛市呢？ 首先，从上次降息的经验来看，降息引起美元贬值和美元外流后，市场的流动性（就是美元货币）一度不足，迫使美联储停止缩表反而开始扩表。 所以未来实施大幅降息后，也会面临同样的问题，人们把美元换成其他货币投入新兴市场，导致美国本土缺少流动性，此时美联储反而缩表无疑会 加剧流动性紧缺，这会带来两个问题：一是流动性过于紧张会抬升短期资金价格，导致市场实际的短期资金利率高于美联储"降息"后的官方利率， 容易形成利率"双轨制"，降息效果可能大打折扣。二是流动性长期紧张容易引发金融机构的流动性风险，增加金融危机发生的概率。按照2008年金 融危机的教训，一旦金融机构没有足够的流动性承接某项资产，资产价格很容易暴跌，资产价格暴跌导致金融机构更加要急剧的脱手回收现金，最 后形成资产价格螺旋下跌和金融机构之间的互不信任，因为在暴跌之下交易对手可能早已资不抵债变成下一个雷曼了。这两个问题都很容 ...

以下文章来源于我画你财 ，作者我画你财 我画你财 . 告别枯燥理论，看图学习理财。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：我画你财 来源：雪球 打开你的基金账户，是不是常常很困惑？ 好几个收益率，看哪个？ 这三个收益率，代表了投资的三笔账。 看懂它们，你就能明白自己的钱到底是怎么赚的、又是怎么亏的啦。 第一笔账：累计 收益率 它用来回答： 总体上，你是赚了还是亏了？ 假设你1月份投入5万元，7月份又投入5万元，本金一共10万。 年底涨到了12万。 那么 累计 收益率 ，就是20% = (12万 - 10万) / 10万 它是三个收益率中最直观的数字，告诉你这笔投资最终净赚了20%。 正数为赚，负数为亏 ，结果一目了然。 但是这个数字完全看不出你的操作是好是坏！ 不论你是高点跟风追高了，还是低点果断抄底了，都无法从这个数字中看出端倪，这时候就需要算第二笔账。 第 二 笔账：资金加权 收益率 它用来 回答：考虑到 你 所有的买卖 操作 ，包括买卖时间和买卖金额 ， 你的 真实投资回报率是多少 ？ 这才是真正衡量你投资能力的 ...

以下文章来源于晨星投资说 ，作者陪你聊配置的 晨星投资说 . 全球知名投资研究机构晨星Morningstar，与您一同探索投资星球。我们的使命是"赋能投资者成功"！ 作者： 晨星Morningstar 屈辰晨 来源：雪球 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 01 从"天真的分散"的"科学的分散" "不要把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里"——这句广为流传的投资名言，并非出自投资大师或经济学家，而是1605年西班牙作家塞万提斯的《堂吉诃 德》。 几个世纪下来，"分散有助于降低风险"已经潜移默化地成为了我们日常决策时的一种经验法则，而我们的生活经验也在不断印证这一做法的合理 性：比如在吃自助餐的时候，每道菜都少量尝一点，不仅可以不错过任何美味，又能降低只吃一道菜踩雷的概率。 然而，如果我们简单粗暴地把这种思路套用到投资中，就会陷入一种叫做"天真的分散 " （Naïve Diversification）的陷阱——也就是我们开头提 到的"开基金超市"，不加区分地把各种可选的基金都买一点，觉得这么做一定能分散风险。 今天看到这只基金涨得好就 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant impact of Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chairman on the precious metals market, leading to a sharp decline in gold and silver prices [4][5]. - On January 31, the precious metals market experienced extreme volatility, with COMEX gold and silver prices dropping by 8.74% and 26.58% respectively, marking one of the largest intraday declines in history [2][3]. - The dollar index saw a strong rebound, surpassing 97.10, which diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities, further pressuring precious metals [5]. Group 2 - The market's reaction to Warsh's nomination was characterized by a "liquidation" of crowded positions, as many investors had heavily bet on rising gold and silver prices, leading to a sharp sell-off [9]. - The gold mining sector was significantly affected, with major companies like Endeavour Silver and First Majestic Silver experiencing declines of 17%, and the overall gold sector dropping over 14% [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility reflects a broader market reassessment of concentrated risks, similar to trends seen in technology stocks, indicating that crowded trades can lead to significant corrections [9]. Group 3 - Looking ahead, institutions like China International Capital Corporation believe that the gold bull market may not be over, despite increased volatility, and recommend focusing on asset trend changes rather than specific price predictions [11]. - Factors supporting gold prices include ongoing de-dollarization, central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and inflation expectations, although caution is advised due to potential profit-taking and uncertainties in Federal Reserve policies [11]. - Investment strategies suggested include locking in profits for current investors and considering staggered buying opportunities for those yet to invest, emphasizing the importance of risk diversification [11][13].