↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 极简投资人 来源：雪球 一、黄金最近10年收益风险比极高 "黄金暴涨，现在还能追吗？ 它的顶在哪里？是1000美元还是10000美元？ 黄金应该是最近几年最热的投资品种，我们以黄金ETF为例，最近10年ETF只有两年下跌。 年最大跌幅只有-7%，今年黄金上涨45%。 但是美国国债不可能一直增发，当人们不相信"欠条"的承诺时，就会转向相信黄金这个有数千年历史的、实实在在的"硬通货"。这种信心的动摇会 推动金价长期上涨。 | स्टेसि | 华安黄金ETF | | --- | --- | | 2025 | 45.27% | | 2024 | 27.45% | | 2023 | 16.34% | | 2022 | 9.24% | | 2021 | -4.71% | | 2020 | 13.81% | | 2019 | 19.15% | | 2018 | 3.64% | | 2017 | 3.31% | | 2016 | 18.15% | | 2015 | 0) == p = 1 = ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that most investors lack the ability to predict market movements and should instead focus on identifying patterns and understanding market errors to gain a probabilistic advantage [4][6][12]. Group 1: Investment Principles - Principle 1: Most individuals do not possess predictive abilities; instead, they should identify patterns and study market errors to gain a probabilistic advantage [6]. - Principle 2: The spread between high-yield bonds and government bonds serves as an effective signal for identifying market cycles [6][15]. - Principle 3: The traditional 60/40 portfolio has flaws, particularly during high inflation periods when both stocks and bonds may decline simultaneously [25][26]. - Principle 4: Valuation changes reward cheap stocks and penalize expensive ones, which is a significant recurring feature in global equity markets [30]. - Principle 5: Crises often present opportunities, while opportunities can be accompanied by bubbles [31]. - Principle 6: High-quality small-cap stocks, especially those with low valuations and net cash, present excellent investment opportunities [7][41]. Group 2: Market Nature and Cycle Positioning - Market Nature: The market is inherently unpredictable, and human cognitive limitations hinder accurate forecasting [12][13]. - Cycle Positioning: The relationship between high-yield spreads and inflation is crucial for understanding market cycles [14][15]. - High-yield spreads indicate when to allocate to defensive assets or small-cap value stocks and commodities [16][19]. - Inflation impacts the performance of stocks and bonds, particularly during periods of high inflation where both may decline [26][28]. Group 3: Asset Selection - Asset Selection: The principle of mean reversion suggests that valuation changes favor cheap stocks and penalize expensive ones [30]. - Value and Profitability Factors: Long-term performance indicates that value and profitability factors can outperform the market [34][38]. - High-quality small-cap stocks are identified as having significant investment potential due to their growth sensitivity and market mispricing [41][44]. Group 4: Commodity Insights - Long-term correlation exists between copper and oil prices, reflecting economic conditions [46]. - The copper-oil ratio serves as an economic cycle indicator, guiding asset allocation decisions [47][48]. Group 5: Gold as an Asset - Gold is viewed as a strategic asset that cannot be manipulated by governments or central banks, making it a preferred choice during extreme inflation or deflation [51][52]. - The demand for gold is supported by central bank purchases, which stabilize its long-term value [55]. Group 6: Portfolio Construction - The article advocates for an all-weather portfolio that includes currencies and commodities to reduce volatility and maximize returns [58][59]. - The traditional 60/40 portfolio is deemed insufficient for managing stock risk exposure, suggesting a need for a more diversified approach [58].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.22%, the Shenzhen Component by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.36% [3] - The total market turnover was 20,904 billion, a decrease of 5,062 billion from the previous day, with over 4,300 stocks rising [4] - The margin trading balance in the A-share market continues to grow, reaching a historical high of 24,469 billion, with a daily increase of nearly 2.6 billion [5] Company-Specific Developments - Sanhua Intelligent Control experienced a significant surge in stock price, reaching the daily limit after rumors of a large order from Tesla exceeding 5 billion for its linear joint products, which are crucial for the production of Tesla's Optimus robot [6][11] - The Hong Kong stock of Sanhua Intelligent Control also rose, with an intraday increase of over 13% [9] Sector Performance - The innovative drug sector rebounded after a period of decline, with notable individual stock performances including Guangsheng Tang up 17.41% and Shutai Shen up 12.5% [12][13] - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector also saw a collective rise, with new stock Xuan Zhu Bio surging over 160% on its first trading day [16] - The consumer electronics sector benefited from positive news, with stocks like Changying Precision rising by 14.19% and Xinwei Communication by 11.31% [18][19] - The meeting between China's Minister of Industry and Information Technology and Apple's CEO Tim Cook highlighted the potential for further collaboration in the electronics sector, with Cook expressing Apple's commitment to increasing investment in China [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that equity funds outperform individual stocks in a bull market, while the opposite is true in a bear market [2][19] - In the current bull market, 81.82% of A-shares have risen, indicating a high probability of profit when buying stocks [4][8] - Growth stocks have a higher winning rate compared to value stocks, with winning rates of 76.51% and 67.17% respectively [5][6] Group 2 - Equity funds have a winning rate of 98.41% this year, significantly higher than the 81.82% winning rate of individual stocks [10][12] - Active funds, particularly mixed equity funds, show a winning rate of 98.52%, outperforming passive index funds [11][12] - The performance of equity funds has yielded significant excess returns compared to major stock indices, with a year-to-date increase of 33.27% for the CSI Equity Fund Index [14] Group 3 - In the bear market from 2022 to 2023, the winning rate of equity funds was only 2.28%, much lower than the 26.01% winning rate of stocks [26][27] - The performance of equity funds in terms of returns was also inferior to that of stocks during the bear market, with the CSI Equity Fund Index declining more than the major stock indices [27][28] - The article highlights the "see-saw effect" between the stock and bond markets, indicating that pure bond funds perform better in bear markets [29][30] Group 4 - The article concludes that in a bull market, equity funds have higher winning rates and returns compared to stocks, while in a bear market, stocks outperform equity funds [33] - Investors are advised to adjust their portfolios according to market conditions, favoring pure bond funds in bear markets for stability and higher winning rates [33]

Core Insights - The article discusses Warren Buffett's decision to sell McDonald's shares in 1997, which later proved to be a significant mistake as McDonald's stock outperformed his other investments, including Coca-Cola [4][9][10]. Group 1: Reasons for Selling McDonald's - The first concern was the low customer loyalty in the food industry, with Buffett noting that consumers might choose competitors like Burger King when hungry, unlike the strong brand loyalty seen with products like Gillette [6]. - The second concern was the heavy capital expenditure associated with McDonald's business model, which required significant investment in real estate for franchising, contrasting with Buffett's preference for lighter asset companies like Coca-Cola [7]. - The third concern was the reliance on promotions, which Buffett believed weakened product strength. He preferred businesses that generated revenue based on product quality rather than discounts [8]. Group 2: Reflection on the Decision - Less than a year after selling, Buffett acknowledged the mistake, stating that selling McDonald's was a poor decision that cost Berkshire Hathaway significantly, estimating a loss of over ten billion dollars in potential earnings [9][10]. - The article highlights that McDonald's global presence, initially seen as a burden, actually created a competitive barrier and capitalized on the growing demand for fast food, especially in emerging markets [10]. - It emphasizes the importance of recognizing a company's adaptability and growth potential, as McDonald's successfully innovated its menu and reduced reliance on promotions over time [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Insights - The case illustrates that certainty in investment does not equate to growth potential, as the fast-food industry was still expanding in 1996, and McDonald's had significant room for growth that Buffett underestimated [11][12]. - Heavy asset investments can create long-term competitive advantages if they establish barriers that competitors cannot easily overcome, as seen with McDonald's extensive global network [12]. - The article concludes that investors should allow for industry growth and company adjustments over time, rather than focusing solely on short-term challenges [12].

以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有 据。 来源：雪球 本周的突发关税与稀土事件，再次让全球市场陷入震荡。纷争再起，风暴又至，我们迎来了第三轮考验。 消息来得有些突然，可能超出了不少人的预期，社交媒体都在讨论此事。 其实也在情理之中，毕竟东西之间的摩擦，是国家力量此消彼长之下的必然。未来很长一段时间，我们都将处于这个漩涡之中，无法置身事外。 不过，不必过度紧张，今非昔比是客观事实。 "曾经，他们有钢铁洪流，而我们只有钢铁般的意志。 后来，我们也有了钢铁洪流，可他们没有钢铁般的意志。 而如今，我们的钢铁都快有意志了，他们却连钢铁都快没了。" 当然，也不能盲目乐观，毕竟现在3900点左右。 回顾历史，今年4月7日开盘前，上证指数才3300点，彼时的全市场温度仅在30°一线，有着较高的安全边际。 现如今，全市场温度来到了 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 陈达美股投资 来源：雪球 毋庸置疑，港股牛市正酣，如春夜一般令人迷醉。 牛市里，激进派很激进，一步到位看恒生科技到10000点，而保守派又认为激进派过于保守。牛市是什么？牛市就是——原来在熊市里最激进的那 些登哥，却变得像个面瓜一样越来越保守的整个过程。 享受牛市的态度，我从来都是不留憾色，及时行乐，错过的都是杀马特。当然啦，所谓留一半清醒留一半醉——醉的那一半是殷勤持股，在朦朦胧 胧的飘飘然中等待泡沫；而清醒的那一半，就是时不时聊点投资方法论方面的东西，看看前辈的经验，读读大佬的著作。 牛市得学啊，字面意义"干中学"。比如我最近又学习研究了一遍，明星基金经理格林布拉特（Joel Greenblatt）与他的神奇公式。分享给大家。 一、格林布拉特与高潭资本 投资大神都古早，不古早，业绩注定不长，所以"时间"是成为投资大神的必要不充分条件。格林布拉特就是这样一位古早投资大神。1985年，格林 布拉特创立高谭资本（Gotham Capital），就如蝙蝠侠守望高谭市一样，他开始了对其 ...

以下文章来源于画不多说 ，作者懂私募的灵魂画手 画不多说 . 话不多说，画多说。用最通俗易懂的方式，讲述私募的故事。 今年7月，咱国内的私募行业发生了一件大事： 规模 百亿级 私募，做 量化 的 数量首次超过 了 主观，在90家百亿私募中占比接近半数 ！ 4年之前，私募还是 主观 为王的时代； 4年之后， 量化 已占据半壁江山。 这场百亿大战的格局变更，绝非偶然； 量化从"边缘人物"到"舞台中央"，是市场环境变化、工具丰富、技术进步共同作用下的必然结 果。 让我来逐一讲解下。 一、市场环境变化：从"蛮荒时代"到"文明新大陆" 过去的市场像是一片"原始丛林"： 信息传播较慢、披露相对不透明， 市场上存在大量的、长期的"错误定价"； 散户投资者占绝对主导，容易受情绪、消息驱动进行交易，导致股价长期偏离其内在价值。 此外，过去上市公司数量少，可供投资的选择不多，资金容易形成合力； 宏观经济又处在高速增长阶段，各行业都能享受到增长红利， 股市易出现同涨同跌的"贝塔行情" 。 在这种相对"蛮荒"的时代里，投资相对简单，只要"看对大势、选对板块"，大概率就能成功。 主观基金经理通过建立自身的"信息优势" ，能够比普通投资 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ A股三大指数今日集体回调，截至收盘，上证指数跌0.62%，深证成指跌2.54%，创业板指跌3.99%，北证50跌0.22%。沪深京三市全天成交额25966 亿元，较上日放量2224亿元。全市场超3500只个股下跌。 板块题材上，燃气、保险、白酒、煤炭、银行、港口航运、光伏设备板块涨幅居前；有色金属、半导体、光刻机、CPO、消费电子、人形机器人概 念股跌幅居前。分化比较明显，科技板块有较大的回调，而传统板块表现相对不错。让我们一起看看今天的热点。 光模块大幅回调！ 本轮牛市表现最突出的光模块板块今日大幅回调。新易盛跌超9%，中际旭创跌超8%，天孚通信跌超5%。 01 消息面上，行业层面，板块内巨头被减持消息不断。10月9日晚，新易盛披露询价转让结果：实控人高光荣以328元/股的价格，通过询价转让向机构 投资者出售1143.07万股（占总股本1.15%），套现37.49亿元。 年内中际旭创与天孚通信股东的密集减持次数也已经高达20次，总金额23.01亿元。其中，中际旭创总计减持14.24亿元，减持方包括第五大股东苏 州云昌锦等多家合伙企业、ITC INNOVATION LIM ...

Overall Introduction - The book introduces market rules, asset allocation logic, and strategies for different asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, while addressing practical issues faced by investors [4]. Core Views - The book proposes three dimensions to assess the market: policy, economy, and inflation, which are used to determine market conditions [7]. - Economic cycles are divided into six stages, each with corresponding asset preferences, ranging from bonds in the early slowdown to cash and commodities in the stagflation phase [11][12][13][39]. - Effective asset allocation strategies include the Permanent Portfolio, All Weather Portfolio, and Global Market Portfolio, emphasizing diversification and risk management [14][15][16]. Current Situation - Current policies are characterized as accommodative, with indicators such as M1 growth increasing from 0.39% in January to 5.96% in August [33]. - Economic recovery is weak, with industrial value-added growth declining from 7.7% to 5.2% [37]. - The market is likely in a transition between the late slowdown phase and the early recovery phase, suggesting a preference for small-cap growth stocks [39][40]. Investment Insights - Long-term asset allocation is crucial for sustained success, with diversified strategies proven to provide stable returns [44]. - A balanced stock-bond allocation is suitable for most investors, allowing for flexibility in extreme market conditions [45]. - Simplifying investment approaches and focusing on fundamental market principles can lead to better outcomes [47][48].