Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of A-shares, highlighting the significant rise in precious metals and the active performance of the chemical and real estate sectors amid ongoing market fluctuations and geopolitical tensions [2][5][14]. Group 1: Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices increased by 2.94%, reaching $4730.41 per ounce, while silver surged by 6.93% to $94.67 per ounce, both marking historical highs [3]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings by 28 tons last week represents the largest weekly gain since September, indicating heightened investor interest in gold as a safe haven [5]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce within three months, with silver potentially hitting $100 per ounce, driven by rising risk aversion and weakening dollar confidence [5]. Group 2: Chemical Sector - The chemical sector saw a collective rise, with companies like Hongbaoli and Shandong Heda hitting their daily price limits [8]. - Recent price increases in key chemical products, such as a 7.9% weekly rise in epoxy propane, are attributed to supply-side improvements and regulatory changes promoting zero-carbon factory construction [10]. - The industry is expected to benefit from a reduction in supply due to the elimination of outdated capacities and increased demand driven by national policies aimed at expanding domestic consumption [10]. Group 3: Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed resilience with stocks like Dayuecheng and Chengtou Holdings reaching their daily price limits, while I Love My Home rose over 7% [12]. - Recent policy changes, including a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial housing loans to 30%, aim to adapt to new market dynamics and support the development of the real estate sector [14]. - Analysts believe that the real estate market has undergone significant adjustments, and with recent government support, the sector is poised for a positive turnaround, making it an attractive investment opportunity [14].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the true understanding of wealth lies not in complex mathematical models but in psychological constructs and behavioral patterns [4][5][6] - It highlights the importance of recognizing the role of luck in financial success and the need for humility in financial planning [8] - The article discusses the power of compounding and the significance of starting early in investment [9] - It points out that financial outcomes are often driven by a few "tail events," underscoring the necessity of diversification [10] - The ultimate purpose of wealth is framed as achieving freedom rather than merely accumulating material possessions [11] - It introduces a simple formula for wealth: Wealth = Income - Desire, stressing the importance of managing desires [12] - The concept of creating a margin of error in financial planning is presented as a strategy to navigate uncertainty [13] - The article concludes that each individual plays a unique financial game, necessitating personalized strategies [14][15] - It asserts that managing money is fundamentally about managing oneself and understanding the psychological factors influencing financial decisions [16] Summary by Sections 1. Wealth Beyond Numbers - The article argues that financial decisions made by highly educated individuals do not necessarily lead to better outcomes, as evidenced by the failures of firms like Lehman Brothers [5][6][7] 2. The Role of Luck - It discusses how luck significantly influences financial success, often overshadowing personal effort and intelligence [8] 3. The Miracle of Compounding - The article illustrates that the true power of compounding lies in time rather than high returns, encouraging early and consistent investment [9] 4. Tail Events - It emphasizes that a small number of events can dominate financial results, highlighting the importance of staying in the game and diversifying investments [10] 5. Freedom as Wealth - The article posits that the ultimate goal of wealth is to gain freedom, allowing individuals to control their time and choices [11] 6. The Formula for Wealth - It presents a formula for wealth that focuses on the balance between income and desire, advocating for the management of personal desires [12] 7. Margin of Error - The article suggests that creating a buffer in financial planning is crucial for dealing with uncertainties and unexpected events [13] 8. Personalized Financial Strategies - It concludes that financial strategies should be tailored to individual circumstances, as different people have different financial games to play [14][15] 9. Managing Self in Finance - The article highlights that understanding psychological factors is key to effective financial management, shifting focus from mere numbers to human behavior [16]

以下文章来源于晨星投资说 ，作者陪你聊基金的 晨星投资说 . 全球知名投资研究机构晨星Morningstar，与您一同探索投资星球。我们的使命是"赋能投资者成功"！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：晨星投资说 来源：雪球 偏股权益基金的赚钱效应在过去一年又回来了。 据晨星Direct统计，2025年年收益率超100%的基金有85只（按最早成立份额统计，且不包括ETF联接基金，下同），其中包括74只主动权益基 金和11只指数基金和ETF。 一年就能翻倍，有的基金甚至能翻两倍，这样的收益看着确实诱人。 但历史业绩已经是过去式，我们挑选基金的目的，是在未来持续获得好的回报。 所以站在当下，我们真正应该关心的不是已经发生了什么，而是接下来会发生什么——这样的好业绩是否具有持续性？ 01 一年翻倍的基金，是怎样炼成的？ 基金要怎样才能做到在一年内业绩翻倍？ 2025年，沪深300指数全年涨幅约为20%。显然，单靠"跟着市场走"很难实现这个目标。 但行业之间的分化表现，给了我们答案。2025年表现最好与最差的行业，年收益率相 ...

以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：思想钢印9999 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 去年是量化基金买爆了的一年 ， 高净值人士没投量化的 ， 感觉就是落伍了 ； 去年也是量化备受争议的一年 ， 市场一旦波动大一点 ， 就有人 抱怨又被量化割韭菜了 。 量化基金去年业绩真的很好吗 ？ 可以来看一看数据 。 量化的两大类 ， 量化选股策略和指数增强策略 ， 前者是用各种量化因子进行选股投资 ， 后者是针对某个指数做超额收益 。 来源：雪球 01 2025 ， 量化没那么神 2025年 ， 公募量化选股类基金的平均收益30.3% ， 虽然比中证全指有 5.7%的超额收益 ， 但相比885001 （ 万得偏股混合基金指数 ， 通常 代表主动管理基金的收益水平 ） 33.2%的年度收益 ， 实际上是略跑输的 。 再看指数增强型基金 ， 三大宽基300/500/1000增强指数基金年度超额收益分别为3.4%/2.0%/9.6% ， 其超额收益与主动量化基金也差 ...

今天竞价阶段，容百科技一度被摁在跌停板上，正式交易后虽然有所回升，但是截止收盘，股价仍跌超11%，一起来看具体情况。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 三大指数涨跌不一，沪指走势较强，创业板指冲高回落。截至收盘，沪指涨0.29%，深成指涨0.09%，创业板指跌0.7%。全市场成交27321亿 元，较上日缩量3243亿元，超3500只个股飘红。 盘面上，贵金属、电网设备领涨，软件开发表现低迷。此外值得关注的是容百科技因公告误导性陈述被立案调查，一起来看今天的热点。 01 借千亿大单炒作股价？ 证监会立案！ 18日晚间，中国证监会网站发布《证监会对 容百科技 重大合同公告涉嫌误导性陈述立案调查》，这也直接导致容百科技今日股价跳水。 容百科技 1月13日公告，公司与 宁德时代 签署《磷酸铁锂正极材料采购合作协议》。协议约定，自2026年第一季度开始至2031年， 容百科技 合 计为 宁德时代 供应国内区域磷酸铁锂正极材料预计为30 5万吨，协议总销售金额超1200亿元。 当晚， 容百科技 便收到上交所问询函，被要求核实并补充披露协议相关事 项。上交所要求其就信息披露准确性、协议内容、内幕交易防控等事项 进行自查 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：浩然斯坦 来源：雪球 巴菲特说 ： "投资的第一原则是不亏钱 ， 第二原则是记住第一原则 。 " 我对这句话的理解 ， 是投资者要先确保 " 不输 " 。 而 " 不输 " 的核心方法里 ， " 适度分散 " 是绕不开的关键 。 信心 90% 时 ， 真实胜率 65% （ 差距拉到 25% ） ； 信心 100% 时 ， 真实胜率 77% （ 满仓的自信 ， 换来的只是七成多正确率 ） 。 这就是 " 过度自信曲线 " ： 信心越往上 ， 真实能力的增长越停滞 ， 甚至脱节 。 为什么分散很重要 ？ 因为人性里有个致命弱点 ： 过度自信 。 你以为自己能精准判断 " 胜率 " ， 但现实往往是你为无知 、 傲慢买单 。 美盛资本管理公司首席投资策略官迈克尔 ・ 莫布森与丹 ・ 卡拉汉 2010 年代初合作的了一个行为金融学实验 。 要求参与者回答 30 道判断题 ， 并对每道题的答案给出50%-100% 的信心评分 。 测试覆盖常识 、 金融 、 经济等领域 。 实验发现 ： 信心 ...

以下文章来源于懒汉养基 ，作者懒人养基 懒汉养基 . 懒人养基小号【懒汉养基】。主号【懒人养基】专注于基金投资，小号【懒汉养基】则记录并小范围分享自己个人成长、投资理财、旅行旅居、读书休 闲、健身养生等方面的一些思考、感悟和经历。感兴趣的朋友欢迎关注。 作者：懒人养基 来源：雪球 在纷繁复杂的人生选择中 ， 若要问哪一件事拥有最高的长期回报率 ， 答案或许出人意料地朴素 ： 不是高学历 、 不是强人脉 、 也不是天赋异 禀 ， 而是 —— 系统性财商的建立 。 很多人误以为 " 投资 " 就是财商的全部 。 他们看到股市上涨便蜂拥而入 ， 听说某个项目暴富就倾囊而出 ， 把资本市场当作赌场 ， 把理财等 同于投机 。 殊不知 ， 真正的财商远不止于 " 如何赚钱 " ， 更在于 " 如何安排一生的金钱流动 " ， 以 实现可持续 、 有尊严 、 不被焦虑支配 的生活 。 01 核心逻辑 ： 先储蓄后支出 ， 平滑人生财富波动 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 财商的核心 ， 是建立 " 先储蓄后支出 " 的底层逻辑 ， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the stock price of Pop Mart has become disconnected from its fundamentals, primarily driven by market sentiment and short-selling activities [9][10] - The article discusses the current state of the long and short positions in Pop Mart, indicating that short-selling orders account for 40%-50% of daily sell volumes, with significant short-selling activity observed recently [9][11] - The article highlights the liquidity risks faced by short-sellers, noting that approximately 48.95% of shares are held by core management and cannot be borrowed for short-selling, while the remaining shares available for shorting are limited [11][12] Group 2 - Short-sellers are facing increasing costs due to interest on borrowed shares, which can range from 5%-8% in Hong Kong, and the longer they hold their positions, the higher their costs become [12][13] - The upcoming earnings report poses a risk for both long and short positions, as any positive surprises could lead to a valuation recovery for Pop Mart [13][14] - The article mentions that Pop Mart has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of around 35% over the past two years, which could increase the holding costs for short-sellers if dividends are declared [14][15] Group 3 - The current market situation is described as awkward for both long and short positions, with both sides experiencing discomfort due to the ongoing volatility [16][17] - The article suggests that if short-sellers begin to cover their positions, it could lead to significant market movements, as the current short interest represents about 7.5% of the total shares outstanding [15][18] - The sentiment among retail investors is particularly highlighted, as many are experiencing emotional distress due to the prolonged downturn in Pop Mart's stock price [18][19] Group 4 - The article provides subjective judgments on the future of Pop Mart, suggesting that the stock price is currently priced for a significant decline in future earnings, which may not materialize [20] - There is potential for improvement in net profit margins as the company has been gradually increasing the prices of its products, indicating a possible rise in profitability [21] - The impact of recent NGO reports on labor practices is discussed, suggesting that while it may have triggered market reactions, the legal context for employing younger workers is not as restrictive as perceived [22][23]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 虽然到了周末，但是特朗普仍然动作不断扰动全球局势，一起来看特朗普的最新情况。 01 特朗普：我是关税之王！ 当地时间1月17日，美国总统特朗普在"真实社交"平台发布一张个人黑白照片，并自诩为"关税之王"。 随后，特朗普在该平台发文宣布，自2026年2月1日起，丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰出口至美国的所有商品加征10%的关 税。自2026年6月1日起，加征关税的税率将提高至25%。 02 欧洲多国回应： 完全错误，我们不会被勒索！ 格陵兰岛是世界第一大岛，也是丹麦自治领地，有高度自治权，国防和外交事务由丹麦政府掌管。美国目前在格陵兰岛设有一处军事基地。特朗普 2025年上任以来多次扬言要得到格陵兰岛，并声称不排除动用武力的可能性。对此，丹麦等欧洲国家强烈反对。美国和丹麦高级官员14日在白宫 就此举行会晤，但双方仍然存在"根本性分歧"。 截至发稿时，白宫尚未就特朗普宣布对上述8国加征关税发布正式声明或文件。美国全国广播公司新闻台14日报道，据一些专家和原美国政府官员 估计，美国购买格陵兰岛的支出可能达到7000亿美元。 面对特朗普此番言论，欧洲多国纷纷回应称 ...

以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有 据。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 六亿居士 来源：雪球 这10个指数基本能代表三地市场的不同规模、不同风格的历年走势，能辅助我们较好地审视当下的市场境况。 闲话休说，一起看数据。 一、三地市场10大指数收益大PK 花了蛮长时间，整理了A、H、美股近20年各大关键指数的收益率，并用相对直观的图片来对比，方便大家查阅。 本次对比，A股选择了中证全指、沪深300、中证500、中证1000和创业板指。港股选择了恒生指数、恒生科技指数，美股则选择了标普500和纳指 100。 5、恒生科技： 恒生科技整体风格接近创业板指，都是典型的高成长、高波动指数，在突破到第一后，后续几年容易产生较大的回撤和波动。比如 2019-2020两年涨幅巨大，而后在2021-2023则进入了漫长的回撤期，我们应对时也需要注意风控。 需要提醒的是，A ...