以下文章来源于摩根在野 ，作者摩根大野 摩根在野 . ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 前IT行业资深人士,现数字游民,个人投资者|越野跑爱好者|分享投资理财观点&多元资产配置&港美股投资观察&个人思考感悟。 来源：雪球 我曾经写过一篇文章 ， 讲述了我为什么放弃了主动交易 ， 转而皈依多元资产配置策略 。 那篇文章主要是从散户的两个死结 （ " 小钱神话 " 和 " 全仓博弈 " ） 角度来分析的 。 今天 ， 我想换个角度 ： 从 注意力 、 自我欺骗 以及如何 夺回你生活主导权来谈 。 做好心理准备 ， 我可能再次刺破你心中能成为 " 战胜市场的 全职交易员 " 的梦想 。 其实大多数人进入股市 ， 不仅仅是为了赚钱 。 某种程度上来说是为了 证明自己比别人聪明 。 他们想要那种 " 只要我按几下鼠标 ， 就能凭空创 造财富 " 的上精神快感 ， 每次抓到一只涨停的股票 ， 就有一种打游戏通关打赢大Boss的快感 。 但遗憾的是 ， 这不是一场关于哪个技术指标更 加精准的游戏 ， 而是一场关于博弈的零和游戏 。 在这个零和游戏中 ， 当你知道你的对手是拥有近乎无限算力的量化基金和手握内幕信息的庄家时 ...

Group 1: Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is currently undervalued, with the China Securities Consumer Index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 20 times, placing it in the 14th percentile historically over the past five years, indicating a very low valuation [4] - The low valuation in the consumer sector is primarily driven by the high weight of liquor stocks, which has negatively impacted overall valuations [5] - Excluding liquor, the optional consumer sector has a valuation of approximately 19 times, which is around the 40th percentile historically over the past decade, also indicating a low valuation [6] - The consumer sector presents a good investment opportunity due to its attractive price-performance ratio, especially for those looking to avoid high-flying sectors [7] - There has been significant interest in consumer investments, with consumer ETFs seeing a rapid increase in shares, adding over 15 billion in the last six months and net inflows exceeding 10 billion [8] - Current policies are promoting consumption, making it a favorable time for investment in the consumer sector [10] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector has been largely absent from the recent bull market, with the China Securities Pharmaceutical Index only increasing by 25% since September 2024, significantly lagging behind the broader market [12][13] - The valuation in the pharmaceutical sector is very low, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of around 3 times, placing it in the 20th percentile historically over the past decade [14] - The current valuation levels in the pharmaceutical sector are comparable to the lows seen during the bear market in 2018, indicating a severe absence from the recent bull market [15] - Within the pharmaceutical sector, medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine are notable sub-sectors, with medical devices having an even lower valuation, with a P/B ratio around 3 times, marking it as one of the cheapest periods historically [16] - The medical device sector has several positive narratives, including international expansion, domestic substitution, and product innovation, supported by government incentives for hospitals to upgrade equipment, which could improve industry performance [17] - Despite the potential, short-term upward movement in medical devices may be challenging, requiring catalysts or actual performance improvements to drive growth [19]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 昨夜今晨，美股三大指数大涨。道指历史性突破5万点关口，热门科技股普涨，中概股收涨。 此外，黄金、白银也大幅反弹， 伦敦现货白银涨近10%，伦敦现货黄金涨近4%。 01 道指突破5万点，历史新高 英伟达暴涨近8% 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数涨 2.47% ，报 50115 点；标普 500 指数涨 1.97% ，报 6932 点；纳斯达克综合指数涨 2.18% ，报 23031 点。 板块方面，美股大型科技股拉升，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨 1.02% 。 个股方面，英伟达大涨 7.81% ，报 185.41 美元 / 股，最新市值4.51万亿美元。 | 英语达 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | NVDA 已收盘02-06 16:15:00 美东 | | | | 185.41 +13.53 +7.87% | | 47.50万人加自选 ( 1 ) > US 融空期 LO | | 高 187.00 开 176.69 | 量 2.31亿股 | 总市值 4.51万亿 | | 低 174.60 换 0.95% | 额 423.40亿 | 市盈TTM 45.42 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "hardcore strategies" in private equity investment, emphasizing the importance of selecting strategies that are less dependent on individual managers and more reliant on stable market conditions [8][10]. Group 1: Strategy Selection - Investors often face challenges in selecting from thousands of products, making it crucial to find strategies that simplify the selection process [4][6]. - A proposed solution is to identify strategies with low variance in management and higher success rates, termed "hardcore strategies" [7][8]. Group 2: Characteristics of Hardcore Strategies - Hardcore strategies are defined by two main characteristics: reliance on stable market environments and reduced dependence on individual capabilities [9]. - A truly effective strategy is rooted in long-term market principles that remain unchanged, ensuring its continued effectiveness [9]. Group 3: Examples of Hardcore Strategies - **Quantitative Long-Only Strategy**: This strategy utilizes mathematical models to identify mispriced opportunities in the market, significantly reducing reliance on individual fund managers [12][13]. - Quantitative strategies have shown substantial returns, with examples indicating gains of 40% to 50% during favorable market conditions, outperforming subjective long strategies [13][14]. - The A-share market, characterized by a high percentage of retail investors, provides ample mispricing opportunities for quantitative strategies [16][17]. - **Macro Hedge Strategy**: This strategy focuses on creating a multi-asset portfolio that is less affected by economic cycles, ensuring profitability regardless of market conditions [18]. - The most robust form of macro hedge strategy is the allocation-based approach, which avoids reliance on precise economic predictions and instead builds a resilient portfolio [19][20]. Group 4: Non-Hardcore Strategies - Market-neutral strategies, while often perceived as stable, have significant weaknesses due to their dependence on both quantitative models and the volatile costs of hedging [21][22]. - The performance of market-neutral strategies can be fragile, as they rely solely on excess returns, which can be severely impacted by market fluctuations and hedging costs [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a customized investment strategy aimed at achieving an annualized return of 8%-12% through a diversified asset allocation model tailored to the specific financial profile and risk tolerance of an individual investor [4][9]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The investment strategy is based on a "60/30/10" model, allocating 60% to equities, 30% to bonds, and 10% to commodities [10][11]. - Historical data indicates that when the holding period exceeds three years, the probability of achieving positive returns from equity assets exceeds 85% [13]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Breakdown - The equity portion (60%) is divided into three pillars: global technology growth (30%), A-share "barbell strategy" (30%), and a defensive component (10%) in gold [14][15]. - The global technology growth pillar includes QDII funds focused on U.S. and Hong Kong tech stocks, specifically selecting two funds: Franklin Global Technology Internet Fund and GF Global Select Equity Fund [16][17]. - The A-share component employs a "dividend + quantitative" strategy, utilizing various funds to balance stability and market volatility [19][20]. Group 3: Fixed Income and Commodities - The fixed income portion (30%) serves as a "safety cushion," providing liquidity and positive returns regardless of market fluctuations [25]. - The gold allocation (10%) is justified as a hedge against currency devaluation and extreme risks, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [29]. Group 4: Performance Management - The strategy emphasizes the importance of managing expectations, acknowledging potential drawdowns of 15%-20% in extreme market conditions [36]. - The investment approach includes regular portfolio reviews to ensure performance aligns with benchmarks and to make necessary adjustments [36]. Group 5: Conclusion - The article concludes that the key to successful investing lies not in predicting market movements but in establishing a resilient investment framework that diversifies across asset classes and geographies [38].

Group 1 - The article discusses the performance of growth style in bull markets, indicating that it often ends up being the most profitable strategy [3] - It highlights the importance of understanding the rotation between large-cap and small-cap stocks during bull markets [3][4] - The article introduces two sets of indices, Huazheng Large Cap and Huazheng Small Cap, which are designed to better represent the A-share market's size dynamics [5][6] Group 2 - The article outlines the methodology for selecting stocks for different indices based on market capitalization percentages [6] - It provides a historical analysis of bull markets, noting that from 2005 to 2008, there was frequent rotation between large and small-cap stocks, indicating that size style was less significant during that period [8][9] - From 2008 to 2010, small-cap stocks outperformed, reflecting a strong preference among investors for small-cap stocks [11][12] Group 3 - The bull market from 2012 to 2015 was driven by small-cap stocks, particularly those in the ChiNext board, despite a brief period of large-cap stock performance [14] - The 2016 to 2018 bull market was characterized by large-cap stocks leading, although the relative performance did not exceed 20% compared to previous bull markets [16] - The most recent bull market, starting in 2024, resembles earlier small-cap driven markets, with small-cap stocks showing strength without significant rotation [20]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a volatile decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.73% at the close [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.15 trillion yuan, a decrease of 30.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - Over 2,700 stocks rose in the market, with sectors like chemicals, solid-state batteries, and humanoid robots performing actively, while consumer goods, particularly liquor and tourism, saw significant declines [2] Group 2 - The price of silver has nearly halved, with the National Investment Silver LOF experiencing five consecutive trading days of limit-down [3][4] - The international silver price saw a significant drop, falling over 20% on February 5, and reaching a low of 64.035 USD/ounce on February 6, down from a peak of 121.647 USD/ounce on January 29 [6] - The domestic silver futures contract also continued its downward trend, with a drop of nearly 15% on the same day [7] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown weakness, with the Hang Seng Technology Index declining by 6.51% this week, and major tech companies like Alibaba and Tencent also experiencing significant drops [12] - The "red envelope war" among major internet companies has drawn market attention, with Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba investing substantial amounts in cash giveaways [13] - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment is influenced by changes in global macro liquidity expectations, intense competition in AI applications, and disappointing earnings forecasts from some companies [14] Group 4 - The chemical sector showed strength against the market trend, with companies like Cangzhou Dahua and Jinniu Chemical hitting the daily limit [17] - BASF announced a price increase for TDI products in the Asia-Pacific region, contributing to positive sentiment in the chemical sector [19] - UBS noted that the chemical industry is at a historical bottom, with a fundamental reversal in supply-demand dynamics due to the end of chaotic capacity expansion and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Tencent's recent decline is primarily due to its failure to demonstrate leadership in AI, leading to concerns about its potential disruption in the future [8][13][17] - Tencent's capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was 12.983 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 24%, which has allowed competitors like ByteDance to gain a significant user base advantage [14] - The article emphasizes the importance of being unique and technologically superior in key market products to instill market confidence, as seen in the case of Google and its Gemini 3 launch [15][16] Group 2 - The decline of technology stocks in the A-share market is linked to market rotation and the concept of moderate inflation, which could impact investment strategies [18][22] - Many companies in sectors like AI, chips, and software have not shown outstanding financial performance despite previous hype, leading to a need for portfolio adjustments [19][20] - The article suggests avoiding high-valuation growth tech stocks and non-essential consumer goods during inflationary periods, as these sectors face significant challenges [23][25] Group 3 - Industries that should be focused on or increased in investment include energy and commodities, essential consumer goods, and utilities, which possess pricing power and can pass on rising costs to consumers [26][27][28][29] - In a moderate inflation environment, companies with strong pricing power, solid balance sheets, and current cash flow are more favorable for investment [30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decision by Guotou Ruijin Fund Company to change the valuation method of its silver fund to reflect international silver prices, which has led to significant dissatisfaction among investors due to increased losses during a period of market volatility [2][3][4][7]. Group 1: Fund Valuation Change - Guotou Ruijin Fund Company announced that the valuation of its silver fund would now be based on international silver prices instead of domestic prices [2]. - This change resulted in a drastic loss for investors, as the international silver price dropped by 31% over two trading days, while the domestic market has a limit of 17% for daily price declines [4][5][6][7]. - The adjustment was made to ensure that the fund's valuation reflects the true market value of its underlying assets, which are determined by international prices [11][12][13]. Group 2: Investor Impact - The change in valuation rules meant that investors who planned to redeem their shares would face a loss of 31% instead of the previously expected 17% [6][7]. - The fund company aimed to protect remaining investors by preventing a situation where early redeeming investors could benefit from inflated prices at the expense of those who stayed [15][19]. - The decision to announce the change after market hours was likely intended to avoid panic selling and protect the interests of remaining investors [20][21][22].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 投资需要耐得住寂寞，同时要无视市场的喧哗，做自己认为对的事。光是这一点，绝大多数投资者做不到，那就没有赚钱的命。 把握大趋势，才能赚大钱。大多数投资者也能看得清大趋势，但是在小的震荡期间，反倒会因小失大。这就是人性，贪婪和恐惧往往是一线之间， 这是让眼前利益所诱惑，缺乏长期打算，最终一事无成。 就拿小迪的配置来说，记得我当初就说过，17元—14元配置没啥差别，配置是个区域，这和29元—33元之间派发一样，你只要抓住大趋势，就是赢 家。 当时我配置时这么说，很多人是不理解的。投资，只要作对趋势，就跑赢大多投资者。如果在配置阶段，斤斤计较，短线频繁做差价看似很聪明； 但对于总趋势来说，还是得不偿失。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 赢在中国V 来源：雪球 不要去赌绝对底部和顶部，投资追求大概率。操作要尽量简化，我以前阐述一个观点，操作要少一些技巧，小技巧只是入门级的玩意，不值得炫 耀。 下跌从来都不是坏事。特别是在牛市之中，下跌就是加速强化趋势。小迪在12月出现周线底部背离的下跌，当时就说可以闭着眼睛买入，本质就是 ...