市场全天震荡调整，沪指尾盘翻红，创业板指领跌。截至收盘，沪指涨0.02%，深成指跌 0.07%，创业板指跌1.21%。个股涨多跌少，全市场超3200只个股上涨。沪深两市全天成交额 1.21万亿，较上个交易日缩量2199亿。 今天盘面上， 电力、电网设备、稳定币、房地产等板块涨幅居前，此前热门板块生物制品、 PCB、CPO、创新药等回调明显。 此外，今天港股因为互联网巨头的外卖大战也吸引了不少投资者关注，一起来看今天热点。 此外，被投资者称为"外卖铲子股"的恒鑫生活20%涨停，公司则是多家餐饮企业的纸制与塑料餐 具提供商。 消息面上，7月5日晚，阿里与美团展开史上最大规模补贴对决，两大平台当天同步放出"满25减 21""满16减16"、"满18减18""25减20"等无门槛大额券。截至7月5日22时54分，美团即时零 售当日订单已经突破了1.2亿单，其中，餐饮订单已超过1亿单。 另据淘宝闪购、饿了么联合宣布，截至7月5日24时，淘宝闪购日订单数超8000万，其中非餐饮 订单超1300万，淘宝闪购日活跃用户超2亿。 7月开始，互联网大厂继续开启狂撒钱模式。淘宝闪购宣布，将在12个月内直补消费者及商家共 500亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of growth stocks, emphasizing that traditional metrics like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios may not be suitable during the early growth phase of a company, as they do not account for the dynamic nature of performance and market conditions [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - Price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is often used for high-growth companies that are not yet profitable or just turning profitable, while P/E ratios are more applicable to companies with accelerating earnings growth [2]. - The basic formula for P/E ratio is given as P/E = stock price / earnings per share or total market value / net profit [3]. Growth Phase Considerations - During the growth phase, especially in the early stages, it is inappropriate to discuss reasonable valuations based on traditional metrics like average industry valuations or dividends [3]. - The concept of safety margin is more relevant at the time of purchase rather than during the holding period, as future valuations may increase even if current valuations appear high [3]. Earnings Growth and Market Valuation - If a company has a current net profit of 1 billion and can achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% over five years, its future net profit could range from 2 billion to 3 billion, leading to a market cap of approximately 40 billion to 60 billion at a 20x P/E ratio [3]. - If the market recognizes the growth potential and assigns a higher valuation of 30x to 40x P/E, the company's market cap could rise to between 36 billion and 48 billion [3][4]. Market Dynamics and Valuation Adjustments - The article highlights that during a bull market, when certainty about future growth is high, valuations may be driven up excessively, leading to a situation where earnings growth does not keep pace with rising valuations [4]. - The adjustment phase often follows a period of high valuations, where stock prices may decline significantly as the market corrects itself [4]. Industry-Specific Analysis - Different industries may exhibit distinct cycles, with some experiencing more significant adjustments during downturns, while others may have clearer recovery points [4]. - For commodity-related cyclical stocks, the cheapest valuations often correspond to market peaks, necessitating close monitoring of commodity prices [4]. Investment Strategy - The article mentions the "雪球三分法" (Snowball Three-Point Method), which advocates for long-term investment and asset allocation through diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve diversified investment returns and risk mitigation [4].

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：山水Alex 来源：雪球 （ 2 ） 利率大环境 。 西方经济学教材经常提到股市跟利率有很大的相关性 ， 其实在A股这规 律几乎是失灵的 ， 为什么 ？ 因为A股缺长线资金 。 A股的参与者90%以上都是散户 ， 大部分 公募的思路也是偏短期化的 ， 真正有长期资金属性的 ， 也是最近这几年才开始出现 。 不是说保险是长线资金吗 ， 当然不是 ， 保险是这几年才开始皈依长期投资的 ， 之前保险做波 段做的比公募还欢乐 ， 赚不赚钱不知道 ， 但肯定没在股市赚到大钱 ， 那这几年险资为什么老 实了 ， 主要是因为利率大环境 、 资产的可得性 。 险资的资金运营 ， 几年前跟目前有着巨大 的差异 ， 目前50%以上资金配置是债券资产 ， 10-15%的股票和权益类基金 ， 还有其他存款 、 流动性资金啥的 ， 非标资产和房地产类的占比已经非常低 。 以前投资债券占比可能只有 30%左右 ， 股票10%左右 ， 还会有各种非标资产 、 房地产投资等比债券收益率更高的资产可 以挑选 。 但这几年被市场教育后 ， 非标已经非常少 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a unique perspective on small-cap stocks, arguing that their valuation, as measured by price-to-book ratio, remains reasonable despite market fears of a collapse in this segment [3][6]. Group 1: Valuation Insights - The price-to-book ratio for small-cap stocks has decreased significantly from over 4 times in 2016 to 2.23 currently, indicating a drop of more than 50% [3]. - The price-to-book ratio has stabilized around 2 since 2019, with fluctuations between a high of 2.5 in December 2023 and a low of 1.3 in February 2024 [3]. - The use of price-to-book ratio is preferred over price-to-earnings ratio due to the volatility in earnings of small-cap companies, which often leads to distorted valuations [4]. Group 2: Market Perception and Opportunities - Many investors dismiss small-cap stocks as "junk" due to high price-to-earnings ratios, but these companies may have significant upside potential if their earnings improve [5]. - Recent mergers and acquisitions in the small-cap space, where larger companies have invested billions, suggest that these stocks possess inherent value that is not immediately reflected in their financial statements [5]. - The article emphasizes that the current valuation of small-cap stocks is still within a reasonable range, contrary to mainstream market beliefs [6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - In 2023, small-cap stocks experienced a remarkable increase, with the Wind Micro Cap Index rising by 47.57%, while major indices like the CSI 500 and CSI 300 fell [7]. - The beginning of 2024 saw a significant downturn for small-cap stocks, with the Wind Micro Cap Index dropping by 34.90% in just two weeks due to liquidity crises triggered by automatic redemption options [8]. - By September 2024, small-cap stocks rebounded significantly, with the trading volume and volatility increasing, leading to a recovery of previous losses and reaching historical net asset value highs [10]. Group 4: Regulatory Changes and Future Outlook - The introduction of new regulations in April 2024 aimed at tightening delisting supervision has raised concerns about small-cap stocks, which are often seen as high-risk for delisting [9]. - The new restructuring regulations introduced in May 2025 simplified the merger and acquisition processes, providing a favorable environment for small-cap stocks [11]. - Overall, the small-cap private equity sector has shown significant resilience and potential for high returns, with some products yielding 60% to 70% returns since their inception [12].

豪门小说照进现实！ 杉杉股份创始人离世后， 34岁的长子和43岁的后妈上演了一出夺权大戏。随着最近公司公告， 法院对长子郑驹持有的全部公司股票进行强制执行，并被法院列为失信执行人，也宣告长子在这 场内斗中出局。 而在2023年郑永刚去世时，杉杉股份的市值还有四百多亿，后来就陷入了家族争斗之中，两年时 间公司市值蒸发超二百亿。 一起来看事件的最新进展。 01 创始人突然离世，内斗大戏上演 2023年2月，作为杉杉的实控人的郑永刚突发疾病去世，但是未立遗嘱或明确股权分配。这场内 斗也围绕着股权分配展开。 郑永刚遗产涉及六方法定继承人：周婷及其三名未成年子女、前妻所生郑驹兄弟。周婷以子女监 护人名分主张80%股权，而郑驹坚持父亲生前指定自己接班。 郑驹在郑永刚去世一个月后全票当选公司董事长，但此举遭到继母周婷的反对， 周婷一方认为， 郑驹在郑永刚去世后匆忙接任董事长职务，违反了公司章程和相关法律法规，周婷称自己才是杉 杉股份的实控人，将继子郑驹告上法庭，并申请冻结其部分公司股权。而郑驹一方则坚称，自己 是按照父亲的遗愿和公司的规定接任董事长的，并有权对公司的经营进行决策。 戏剧性的是，同年5月10日， 2023年5 ...

以下文章来源于黑貔貅俱乐部 ，作者黑貔貅 黑貔貅俱乐部 . 宏观经济 ，亮点行业，大类资产配置 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：黑貔貅俱乐部 来源：雪球 站在当下看未来的3-5年 ， 反内卷或许会成为影响中国社会以及经济最重要的事件之一 。 映射到资本市场 上也会带来巨大的投资机会 ， 尤其是对商品而言 ， 可能会成为影响部分品种的核心变量 。 尽管大家都在 类比16年的供给侧改革 ， 但是我觉得还是有很大的差异性 。 01 有较大的背景跟性质差异 15年过剩的行业相对集中在中上游领域 ， 产品的同质化竞争是比较严重的 ， 比如钢铁 ， 水泥 ， 电解铝 ， 玻璃等等 ， 大家生成的东西没有多少不同 ， 价格上也没有多少差距 。 而且这种过剩很大程度上是因为 2011-2012年的经济繁荣带来的投资 ， 主要是周期性因素为主 ， 通过棚改货币化刺激需求以及行政手段 压减无效产能 ， 退出效果还是比较显著的 。 但是本轮产能主要集中在终端消费领域 ， 产品的差距还是很大 ， 中低高端都有 ， 很难通过行政命令去去 化 ， 比如光伏是差异化过剩问题 。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the complexity of understanding bank profitability, highlighting that traditional metrics like interest margin, cost of expenses, and asset impairment losses do not provide a complete picture of a bank's true earning capacity [4][20][22]. Group 1: Understanding Bank Profitability - The profitability of banks cannot be solely determined by analyzing interest margins and impairment losses, as these metrics do not allow for effective peer comparison [4][22]. - For example, Bank A with a 2.5% interest margin and Bank B with a 2% interest margin can both achieve the same net profit of 1%, indicating that higher interest margins do not necessarily equate to better profitability [5][6][7]. - The article discusses the importance of understanding the underlying business model and risk management strategies of banks, particularly in the context of small and micro loans [14][18][19]. Group 2: Risk and Business Models - The article presents a case where high-interest loans can be associated with low risk, particularly in regions with strong micro-enterprise demand, suggesting that local knowledge can mitigate risks [11][13]. - It argues that small banks are better positioned to manage small and micro loans due to their flexibility and closer ties to local businesses [18][19]. - The discussion includes the notion that a bank's risk profile cannot be judged solely on its loan portfolio size or interest margins; rather, it requires a deeper analysis of the specific business practices and regional economic conditions [60][66]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - The article introduces the concept of Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) as critical metrics for evaluating bank performance, with ROA being influenced by interest margin, cost of expenses, and impairment losses [25][31][48]. - A comparison of two banks, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and Hangzhou Bank, reveals that despite ICBC having a larger asset base, Hangzhou Bank demonstrates a higher ROA and ROE due to its effective use of leverage [34][48][55]. - The article concludes that Hangzhou Bank's higher valuation should be reflected in its price-to-book (PB) ratio compared to ICBC, suggesting that current market valuations may not accurately represent the banks' underlying performance [76][78].

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, signed by President Trump, aims to extend tax cuts for corporations and individuals, with a significant focus on reducing corporate taxes [3] - The Act is projected to incur over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next decade, with an increase in the deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion and a $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling [3] - Critics argue that the Act disproportionately benefits high-income individuals and corporations while cutting social welfare programs, leading to significant reductions in healthcare coverage for low-income Americans [5][6] Group 2 - The Act represents a dramatic shift in U.S. economic and fiscal policy compared to the Biden administration, reversing many of the social welfare expansions and clean energy initiatives [5] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that nearly 12 million people could lose their healthcare coverage as a result of the new law [6] - Discussions among financial analysts suggest that the expansion of the fiscal deficit may support economic stability in the short term, while also raising concerns about long-term debt sustainability [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current macroeconomic environment and its impact on various markets, highlighting the challenges faced by Chinese assets and the importance of long-term investment strategies [2][3]. Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic landscape is described as volatile, with U.S. stocks fluctuating based on political developments, while Hong Kong stocks are experiencing rapid changes similar to A-shares, leading to valuation bubbles and rare A-H share price discrepancies [2]. - The overall microeconomic situation remains stagnant, with a resurgence in certain industries and a decline in real estate, contributing to a spiral of consumption deflation [2]. Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes a cautious approach to investing in assets perceived to be in a bubble, avoiding leveraged business models even if they show short-term gains [3]. - The quality of assets in sectors like banking is declining, yet insurance companies continue to buy shares, creating a disconnect between stock prices and fundamentals [3]. - The company prioritizes long-term investment principles over short-term market fluctuations, focusing on businesses that demonstrate resilience and market share growth during downturns [3][4]. Industry Insights - The e-commerce sector is highlighted as a potential area for growth, despite previous market leaders losing market share; the current environment may present new opportunities for focused players [4]. - The company is optimistic about the potential of the trendy toy market, despite short-term challenges, as it continues to show strong performance metrics [4]. Investment Philosophy - The company advocates for a long-term investment perspective, urging investors to focus on the integrity and correctness of investment decisions rather than short-term net asset value fluctuations [4][5]. - The "three-point method" of investment is introduced, emphasizing diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve long-term returns and risk mitigation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term performance of investment funds, emphasizing the importance of patience and understanding investment strategies over mere results [2][6][8]. Group 1: Long-Term Performance Insights - Investors may need to endure a 10-year period of underperformance before a fund shows its long-term potential [6]. - Many investors lose patience after three consecutive years of underperformance, highlighting the need for a deeper understanding of investment philosophy [6]. - Funds that underperform their benchmarks over a 15-year period often have extended periods of outperformance, suggesting that recent strong performance may not predict future success [6]. Group 2: Investment Cycles and Strategies - The article reflects on the cyclical nature of investment performance, noting that the first ten years of a fund's life can differ significantly from the subsequent ten years [8][9]. - It discusses the necessity of adapting investment strategies to changing market conditions, as past success does not guarantee future results [9]. - The concept of "paying for luck" in the next decade is introduced, indicating that past gains may lead to future challenges [9]. Group 3: Diversification and Risk Management - The article advocates for a diversified investment approach, including asset, market, and time diversification [12][13]. - It suggests that investors should consider a mix of stocks, bonds, and commodities across various markets to mitigate risks [12][14]. - The importance of finding a personal investment style that is both effective and reasonable is emphasized, encouraging experimentation and learning from mistakes [15].