↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有 据。 作者： 六亿居士 来源：雪球 在开始文章前 ， 需要说明一个关键问题 ： 受估值中枢移动影响 ， PE和PB估值百分位的中枢一直在变化 （ 下移 ） 。 大部分指数在同一个估值温度下 ， 绝对估值有较大下移 。 今天 ， 我们一起回顾主要核心指数的相关情况 ， 供大家参考 。 一 、 历次牛市全市场估值温度回顾 我们一般用沪深全A （ 中证全指 ） 来代表全市场整体的情况 ， 这比上证指数 、 沪深300或其他指数更具代表性 。 因为该指数几乎涵盖所有A 股上市公司 ， 完整了展现了市场的基本情况 。 指数估值温度 = （ PE估值百分位 + PB估值百分位 ） /2 百分位统计周期 ， 一般采用指数成立至今全历史数据 ， 沪深全A采用近20年数据 。 基于A股较为强烈的情绪化 ， 采用全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of simplicity in investment strategies, suggesting that a straightforward approach can lead to more stable and successful outcomes [2][18]. Group 1: Personal Investment Journey - The protagonist, a 30-year-old programmer in Beijing, has accumulated approximately 3 million yuan in cash, free of loans, but feels anxiety about the "35-year career crisis" [2][14]. - Initially, the protagonist's investment strategy was basic, relying on low-risk products like Yu'ebao and fixed-income products, aiming only to cover daily expenses [3][14]. - The first experience with mutual funds was profitable initially, but subsequent market fluctuations led to significant losses, highlighting the unpredictability of even seemingly stable investments [4][5]. Group 2: Lessons Learned - The protagonist experienced multiple losses in the stock market, which led to a deeper understanding of human psychology and the nature of risk in investing [6][7]. - The realization that overthinking and excessive trading often result in losses, while a more patient approach could yield better results [5][7]. - Acknowledgment of the importance of risk management and the need for a diversified investment strategy to mitigate potential losses [17]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The article advocates for a balanced asset allocation strategy, suggesting a mix of 70% bond funds, 10% stock funds, and 20% gold to manage risk effectively [8][15]. - Emphasizes the significance of setting realistic expectations and understanding personal limitations in investment capabilities [15][16]. - The concept of "embracing asset allocation" is presented as a way to acknowledge one's limitations and manage expectations in the pursuit of wealth [15][16]. Group 4: Practical Investment Strategies - The article outlines a simple four-step approach for new investors: assess risk tolerance, select recommended funds, set investment amounts, and establish a flexible investment timeline [18]. - Encourages new investors to focus on consistent and disciplined investment practices rather than overcomplicating their strategies [18]. - The importance of using reliable tools and platforms for investment management is highlighted, with a recommendation for the Snowball platform for its user-friendly features [11][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current challenges faced by investors heavily invested in dividend stocks, highlighting the underperformance of dividend indices compared to broader market indices since June 23, 2025, and suggests strategies for adjusting portfolios to improve returns [7][9][21]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since June 23, 2025, broad-based and actively managed equity funds have seen gains of 20% or more, while dividend indices like the Shanghai Dividend and CSI Dividend have seen maximum gains of no more than 5% [7]. - The article notes that investors who are fully invested in dividend stocks may be experiencing significant discomfort due to the poor performance of these assets [8]. Group 2: Investor Strategies - For long-term investors who have held dividend stocks through various market cycles, the article suggests that they may not need to take any action, as they understand the nature of these assets [8]. - For newer investors who entered the market during the recent dividend bull run, the article provides actionable strategies to navigate the current market conditions [9][21]. Group 3: Transitioning Investment Focus - The article emphasizes that both dividend and growth assets cannot be effective or ineffective in the long term, suggesting a potential shift towards growth-oriented investments while maintaining a balanced risk profile [11]. - It proposes that investors consider reallocating from pure dividend holdings to deep value fund managers who have shown better performance relative to dividend indices [14]. Group 4: Upgrading Dividend Indices - The article recommends upgrading dividend indices by incorporating growth factors, suggesting two main investment directions: 1. Free Cash Flow series indices, which have outperformed traditional dividend indices since June 23, 2025 [16][17]. 2. Dividend Quality indices, which have also shown significant gains compared to pure dividend indices [18]. Group 5: Additional Optimization Methods - The article suggests considering large-cap broad-based or value-oriented indices, such as the CSI 300 or Shanghai Composite Index, as they are expected to outperform pure dividend strategies in the near term [19]. - It also recommends exploring dividend-paying stocks with growth attributes, particularly in sectors like consumer goods and liquor, which may offer better returns than traditional dividend stocks [20]. Conclusion - The article concludes that rather than making drastic changes to investment portfolios, investors should focus on optimizing their holdings to align with current market conditions while maintaining patience [21][22].

9月8日 ， 为贯彻落实 《 推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案 》 ， 在北京证监局指导下 ， 北京 证券业协会携手北京公募基金管理人 、 基金销售机构 、 基金评价机构及多家主流媒体 ， 共同 启动 " 北京公募基金高质量发展系列活动 " 。 本次活动以 " 新时代 · 新基金 · 新价值 —— 北京公募基金高质量发展在行动 " 为主题 ， 旨在 通过为期一个多月的多层次 、 多形式宣传与互动 ， 全面推进普惠金融高质量发展 ， 推动公募 基金行业转型升级 ， 提升服务实体经济能力 ， 强化投资者教育与保护 ， 打造北京金融高质量 发展新名片 。 华夏基金 、 嘉实基金 、 工银瑞信基金 、 建信基金 、 银华基金等四十余家机构 参与其中 。 多维赋能 构筑高质量发展新生态 本次活动以 " 新时代 · 新基金 · 新价值 —— 北京公募基金高质量发展在行动 " 为主题 ， 精心 构建 " 1+3+N " 系统化推进体系 ， 徐徐展开北京金融业改革发展新图景 。 该体系以学术支撑 、 社会传播与媒体放大为三大支柱 ， 通过多场景 、 多层次的深度互动 ， 形成立体化 、 广覆 盖的传播格局 。 系列活动设计独具 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 今天行情再度燃爆，休整几天后，牛市的气息又回来了！ 市场全天持续走强 ， 三大指数强势反弹 ， 创业板指和 深成指 双双再创年内新高，截至收盘，沪指 涨1.65% ， 深成指涨3.36% ， 创业板指涨 5.15%。 沪深两市成交额2.44万亿 ， 较上一个交易日放量4596亿， 全市场超4200只个股上涨 。 工业富联2连板 算力硬件股再度成为市场焦点，液冷、CPO、PCB等多个方向上涨，截至收盘，胜宏科技涨超16%，中际旭创涨超14%、新易盛涨超13%、天孚 通信涨超13%、寒武纪涨近9%，景旺电子、东山精密、剑桥科技等多股涨停。 | 性宏科技 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300476 盘后交易09-11 15:15:30 北京 | | | | | 338.00 +47.33 +16.28% | | 13.25万人加自选 二 > CN 融 通 L1 | | | 高 345.88 开 300.26 | 量 92.94万手 | 总市值 2915.89亿 | | | 低 290.43 换 10.87% | 额 291.43亿 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of understanding common financial terms and concepts to enhance investment knowledge and decision-making [3][4]. Group 2 - Structured market conditions refer to a scenario where some sectors are experiencing a bull market while others are in a bear market, indicating a disparity in market performance [4]. - Market liquidity is defined as the ease with which assets can be converted into cash, with high liquidity characterized by active trading and significant daily transaction volumes [6]. - Constituent stocks are the individual stocks that make up a fund, with the number of constituent stocks varying from a few to potentially over a thousand [8]. - Stock position refers to the proportion of a fund's assets allocated to stocks, with higher stock ratios indicating greater risk [10][11]. - Rebalancing involves selling some existing holdings and purchasing new or less held assets to optimize returns by eliminating underperforming investments [12][13]. - The terms "missing out" and "being trapped" are commonly used in investment discussions, where missing out refers to not buying and missing a price increase, while being trapped refers to holding onto losing investments in hopes of recovery [15][16][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting significant movements in various sectors, particularly the impact of Shanghai Electric's halted acquisition and the rebound in the AI and oil & gas sectors. Group 1: Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.38%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.27% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 200.40 billion yuan, a decrease of 148.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] - Over 2400 stocks in the market saw an increase in their prices [2] Group 2: Shanghai Electric - Shanghai Electric, which had seen a rise of over 120% in one month, faced a one-day limit down, closing at 20.79 yuan, a drop of 10% [4][5] - The company announced the termination of its acquisition of a 66.40% stake in Pakistan's KE Company, valued at nearly 2 billion USD, due to unmet conditions and changes in the business environment in Pakistan [8] - Despite the termination of the acquisition, it was stated that this would not have a significant adverse impact on the company's operations [8] - Shanghai Electric also approved investments in two renewable energy projects, with total investments not exceeding 3.78 billion yuan for the offshore photovoltaic project and 2.26 billion yuan for the wind power project [11][13] Group 3: AI Sector - The AI industry chain saw a rebound, with notable increases in cloud computing, computing power, chips, and optical modules [15] - Industrial Fulian, a leading company in the sector, reached its daily limit up, while other companies like Cambrian Technology also saw significant gains [15] - Oracle's strong performance in AI business, despite missing revenue expectations, led to a surge in its stock price by over 28% after announcing a substantial increase in unfulfilled revenue contracts [15][17] Group 4: Oil & Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector experienced a notable increase, with companies like Tongyuan Petroleum rising by 14.88% and Huai Oil shares hitting the daily limit [19][20] - The rise was attributed to significant breakthroughs in oil and gas exploration in China, as well as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting oil prices [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of dividend index funds, highlighting their unique investment value and the challenges investors face in selecting suitable products in a diverse market [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Value of Dividend Index Funds - Dividend index funds are characterized by their investment value, typically derived from companies with strong profitability, stable cash flow, and consistent dividend payments, such as leading firms in banking, transportation, and energy sectors [6]. - These companies can maintain a certain level of dividends even during market fluctuations or short-term performance declines, providing a buffer against stock price drops [7]. - From January 2007 to December 2024, the annualized return of the CSI Dividend Total Return Index was 10.32%, significantly outperforming the 5.52% return of the CSI 300 Total Return Index [8]. - The annualized volatility of the CSI Dividend Total Return Index over the last five years was 16.66%, lower than the 19.33% of the CSI 300 Total Return Index, indicating stronger return stability during market fluctuations [9][12]. Group 2: Evolution and Types of Dividend Index Funds - The number of dividend index funds in China has grown significantly, with only three funds launched from 2006 to 2016, but a surge in issuance occurred from 2017 to 2020 [14][15]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, there were 87 dividend index funds with a total scale of 153.9 billion, representing a 2211.68% increase since the end of 2007 [16]. - Different types of funds focus on various aspects of dividends, including traditional broad-based funds tracking indices like the CSI Dividend Index, and Smart Beta funds that enhance factors like low volatility and quality [20][21]. - Some funds specifically target state-owned enterprises, which are known for their stable earnings and increasing dividend payout intentions, making them a reliable source of dividends [22]. Group 3: Selecting Dividend Index Funds - Investors should consider the characteristics of different types of dividend index funds, with traditional broad-based funds serving as a foundational investment, while Smart Beta funds cater to specific needs [25]. - It is essential to evaluate the scale and liquidity of index funds, as smaller funds may face liquidation risks and poor liquidity can hinder trading at favorable prices [26]. - Tracking error is a critical factor, with lower tracking errors indicating better performance in reflecting the underlying index [26]. Group 4: Importance of Fee Rates - Fee rates are a significant consideration, as seemingly minor differences can substantially impact long-term investment returns, especially for index investments focused on compounding [28]. - Despite a trend of lowering fees in the public fund industry in 2024, many newly established dividend index funds still maintain relatively high management fees of 0.5% and custody fees of 0.1% [29]. - The high fee rates may be linked to the recent popularity of dividend assets, allowing fund companies to command higher pricing power during product launches [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unique characteristics and advantages of the China Securities A500 Index, highlighting its role in the A-share market and its potential for investment opportunities [3][8][33]. Group 1: Index Characteristics - The China Securities A500 Index includes leading companies from all industries, making it distinct in its comprehensive coverage [8][9]. - The selection process for the A500 involves multiple rounds of elimination based on trading activity, market capitalization, and ESG ratings, ensuring only the most viable stocks are included [12][14][18][19]. Group 2: Selection Process - The first round eliminates stocks with low trading activity, specifically those in the bottom 10% of average daily trading volume over the past year [12]. - The second round removes stocks with small market capitalization, specifically those in the bottom 70% [14]. - The third round excludes stocks that do not support trading through the Shanghai-Hong Kong or Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, enhancing liquidity [16]. - The final round eliminates stocks with poor ESG ratings, ensuring the selected companies are sustainable and responsible [18]. Group 3: Industry Coverage - The A500 Index is designed to have a balanced industry representation, which helps mitigate risks associated with overexposure to any single sector [23]. - Compared to the CSI 300 Index, the A500 has a higher representation of emerging industries like industrials and information technology, while having less exposure to traditional sectors like finance and consumer goods [25]. Group 4: Advantages and Disadvantages - The balanced industry allocation of the A500 enhances its risk resilience, but it may lead to relatively average returns during market rallies driven by specific sectors [28]. - The A500 has a shorter historical data period compared to other indices like the CSI 300, which limits the ability to assess its performance across various market conditions [31]. Group 5: Performance Insights - The A500 has shown significant performance, with some quantitative private equity funds achieving nearly 35% returns year-to-date, compared to 14% for the CSI 300 Index [33].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：雪球三分法用户@宛在水中央 今天故事的主人公，是一位33岁的电气工程师， 工科出身的他曾对金融一窍不通 。一份股权激励，让他被动地踏入资本市场，从凭感觉买卖、追 高被套的"小韭菜"，到靠资产配置找到方向，他在行业的剧烈波动中经历了股价的腰斩再腰斩，用5年时间实现从投机到投资的转变。如今，他通 过 雪球三分法 不仅为自己建立了稳健的成长型组合，更为半岁的孩子开始了长达二十多年的进攻型定投计划。他是一位与图表和代码打交道的工 程师，也是一位在迷茫后找到方向的长期主义者。他坚信："认知，是投资中最重要的导航。"让我们一起走进@宛在水中央 的故事。 我今年33岁，大学读的是电气控制及其自动化专业，目前在一家设备制造公司做电气工程师，日常工作就是负责设备的电气控制和人机交互软件 设计。跟很多工科生一样，我过去对 "金融"、"投资" 这类词汇没什么概念，直到五年前接触资本市场，才慢慢打开了新世界的大门。 2019年我入职现在这家上市公司，因为工作上还算努力负责，公司给了股权激励，让我第一次实实 ...