Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes that a fulfilling life is built on four essential pillars: earning money, managing finances, managing desires, and managing emotions [5][18]. Group 2 Earning Money - Earning money is considered the most important aspect of life, and it should ideally align with personal interests to transform work into a path of self-fulfillment [7][8]. - Diversifying income sources is crucial; having a side job can provide a safety net and opportunities for growth when primary income sources decline [8]. Managing Finances - Financial management is not just about investing but primarily about saving, especially during years of increased income [10][11]. - The first goal of financial management is to save money, as income distribution is often uneven throughout a person's life [10]. - Wealth preservation and growth come second, requiring a foundation of savings before considering investments [11]. Managing Desires - Managing desires is essential for happiness, as unchecked desires can lead to dissatisfaction [12][13]. - Distinguishing between needs and wants is critical; true happiness comes from balancing desires with one's financial capabilities [13][14]. Managing Emotions - Emotional management is vital for maintaining happiness, as it helps individuals recover from negative experiences [15][16]. - Key steps in emotional management include awareness, acceptance, and transformation of negative emotions into positive actions [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the feasibility of the "permanent holding" investment strategy, originally proposed by Warren Buffett, and highlights the challenges and risks associated with it, particularly through the analysis of Buffett's investments in companies like Coca-Cola, which has been the only one to maintain its status as a permanent holding [3][5]. Group 1: Analysis of Permanent Holding - Buffett's claim of permanent holding was primarily associated with three companies: Metropolitan, Washington Post, and Coca-Cola, with only Coca-Cola still being held today [3]. - The decline of the competitive advantages (moats) of the first two companies led to their eventual sale or acquisition, indicating that the permanence of a company's moat is likely a rare occurrence [3][4]. - Coca-Cola's stock experienced a tenfold increase over ten years, but Buffett faced a decade of stagnation due to high valuation, illustrating the risks of adhering to a permanent holding strategy [4][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Insights - The article introduces the concept of "City Earnings Ratio" (市赚率), which is calculated as the price-to-earnings ratio divided by the return on equity, providing a framework for evaluating investment opportunities [4]. - The City Earnings Ratio can help identify undervalued stocks during bear markets and signal overvaluation during bull markets, making it a useful tool for investors in the Chinese stock market, particularly for companies like Kweichow Moutai [6][7]. - The experience of Buffett with Coca-Cola and the subsequent stagnation serves as a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the importance of not solely relying on the permanent holding philosophy [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company *ST Lifan is facing termination of its stock listing due to financial fraud, having reported false financial data for three consecutive years, which has led to significant regulatory actions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Fraud and Regulatory Actions - The company received a notice from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on February 14, 2026, indicating the intention to terminate its stock listing due to serious violations of financial reporting [2][5]. - The administrative penalty decision from the China Securities Regulatory Commission confirmed that the company inflated its revenue and costs through various fraudulent activities, including agency business and fictitious trades [4][6]. - The total amount of inflated revenue for 2021 and 2022 exceeded 500 million yuan, accounting for over 50% of the reported annual revenue for those years [6]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Market Reaction - The stock of *ST Lifan experienced a dramatic rise, with a peak increase of over 400% from a low of 0.66 yuan to a high of 3.33 yuan within a short period [11][12]. - Following the announcement of the financial fraud and subsequent regulatory scrutiny, the stock faced two consecutive trading halts with a 20% drop on February 12 and 13, 2026 [10][16]. - The company has reported losses for three consecutive years, with an expected net loss of between 180 million yuan and 210 million yuan for 2025 [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the dangers of hindsight bias in investing, highlighting that while it is easy to identify past opportunities and risks, it is much more challenging to predict future market movements and make informed decisions based on current data [3][8]. Group 1: Common Hindsight Biases - Investors often believe they can identify the best-performing assets, such as gold and commodities, due to geopolitical tensions and economic crises [4]. - The article notes that in 2023, the U.S. stock market led global gains, driven by advancements in AI technology, which reinforces the belief that understanding market logic can help seize opportunities [6]. - Many investors think they can avoid every risk, but historical events like trade wars and financial crises show that risks often have early warning signs that are only clear in retrospect [7]. Group 2: Investment Traps Hidden in Hindsight - The article points out that while past market trends appear clear, future predictions remain uncertain due to the complex interplay of various factors [9]. - Investors are often attracted to past performance, such as the significant gains in precious metals and technology sectors, while neglecting the associated risks of substantial drawdowns [10]. - Relying on past experiences can distort future expectations, leading to overly cautious or biased investment decisions [11]. Group 3: Correct Use of Hindsight - The article suggests focusing on the long-term pricing logic of assets rather than short-term performance, as historical data shows that stocks, bonds, and commodities generally appreciate over time [13]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding long-term drivers, such as corporate earnings for stocks and market interest rates for bonds, while avoiding the temptation to react to short-term market fluctuations [14]. - Investors should reflect on their own investment psychology to avoid common mistakes like panic selling during downturns or chasing high returns without a strategy [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition into a "K-shaped economy," highlighting the shift in growth drivers from traditional industries to advanced technology sectors like AI, leading to significant economic structural changes [6][7]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The K-shaped economy is characterized by long-term high interest rates, with new economic sectors being less sensitive to these rates, thus supporting persistent inflation [6]. - Major economies (such as the US, Europe, and Japan) face limited room for monetary policy easing, increasing the risk of global liquidity tightening [6]. - The intensification of de-globalization and geopolitical tensions, particularly US policies, is causing disorderly restructuring of global supply chains and capital flows, amplifying market volatility [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes "structural layout" and a systematic approach to risk management, transitioning from a model that increases overall risk exposure to one that focuses on precise asset allocation based on macroeconomic insights [6][7]. - The strategy involves dynamic sector rotation throughout the year, with specific allocations planned for agriculture, chemicals, consumer goods, and outdoor sports, aiming for a complete cycle of "bottom entry and bubble exit" [8]. - The focus is on performance certainty, avoiding speculative investments and prioritizing stocks with stable net profit growth and return on equity (ROE) [8]. Group 3: Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to experience accelerated growth, expanding beyond innovative drugs to include medical devices, distribution, and services, leading to a "multi-point bloom" in the sector [9]. - The strategy for the pharmaceutical sector involves a balanced allocation across innovative drugs, high-consumption medical products, and undervalued biotech assets to capitalize on the industry's expanding opportunities [9]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience increased volatility in 2026, with small-cap stocks showing upward potential as their price-to-book ratios break out of historical ranges [10]. - The investment approach will adapt to market conditions, whether driven by profit growth or high volatility, utilizing a mature risk control model to capture excess returns [10]. - The focus remains on maintaining a high portfolio allocation based on confidence in core asset performance and the long-term narrative of China's economic resurgence [8][10]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Leading domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies are gaining strong competitive advantages globally, driven by high innovation, execution capabilities, and efficient operations [11]. - The rapid rise of China's pharmaceutical R&D capabilities is creating numerous high-quality investment opportunities, with a focus on identifying undervalued growth stocks in the current market environment [11].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.1%, the Nasdaq down 0.22%, and the S&P 500 up 0.05%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose approximately 1.2%. All three indices recorded declines over the past week, with the Nasdaq showing the largest drop, indicating cautious market sentiment [1]. - Most popular tech stocks declined, with Nvidia and Apple dropping over 2%, and Google, Meta, and Broadcom falling over 1%. Investor concerns about the potential impact of artificial intelligence on traditional industries have heightened risk-averse sentiment [3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. January CPI year-on-year decreased from 2.7% to 2.4%, the lowest since May 2025, while the core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021. The core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, slightly above December's 0.2% increase [9][10]. - Following the CPI report, traders increased their expectations for interest rate cuts this year, with a 50% chance of three cuts by year-end. The probability of a cut in April is 30%, and over 80% for June [10]. Company-Specific News - Meituan issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of approximately RMB 233 billion to RMB 243 billion for the fiscal year 2025, a stark contrast to a net profit of RMB 358.08 billion in 2024. This represents a significant reversal of nearly RMB 600 billion [16][18]. - The core reason for Meituan's drastic performance change is the profit collapse in its most profitable segment, "core local business," which is expected to incur an operating loss of RMB 68 billion to RMB 70 billion in 2025, compared to an operating profit of RMB 524.15 billion in 2024. This is attributed to unprecedented competition in the industry and strategic increases in ecosystem investments [18][20]. - Meituan plans to increase investments in marketing, rider incentives, and operational efficiency to counteract the losses, while also expanding its overseas business [20]. Market Sentiment and Trends - The Hang Seng Tech Index has shown weakness, declining 6.26% since February, influenced by liquidity shocks. Analysts suggest that the fundamentals and bullish logic for the Hong Kong tech sector remain unchanged [21]. - The performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index in February may be driven by macroeconomic data, policy pricing, and earnings verification, with U.S. inflation and employment data being key factors affecting valuation elasticity in Hong Kong tech stocks [21].

以下文章来源于晨星投资说 ，作者陪你聊投资的 晨星投资说 . 全球知名投资研究机构晨星Morningstar，与您一同探索投资星球。我们的使命是"赋能投资者成功"！ 既不用承担太多风险，又能稳稳获得可观回报。 但金融学的基本原理告诉我们，风险与收益始终相伴而生。想在不承担风险的情况下博取高收益，这样的机会在现实中几乎不可能存在。 不过，这并没有阻挡我们对于"完美"的探寻。 过去一个多世纪里，从学术界到资管行业，无数金融学者和从业者都在探索：是否存在一种更科学的方法，能够帮助我们更好地管理风险，让投资 组合不断逼近"完美"？ 近期，晨星对话了麻省理工学院金融学教授、美籍华裔经济学家罗闻全（ Andrew Lo ）。罗教授和我们一起回顾了现代投资组合理论的演进，并 剖析了这些理念如何帮我们更好地度过市场周期、重塑我们对"完美投资组合"的认知： "完美"的组合应能帮我们做到有备无患。 分散化始终是构建"完美组合"的核心的原则，一个理想的组合既能适应我们个人境况变化，也能适应市 场环境的变迁。 投资组合是高度个性化的。 不同的人对"完美"的定义本就不同，不存在一个放之四海而皆准的标准答案。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices collectively declined on the last trading day of the lunar year, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.26% to below 4100 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.28%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.57% [3] - However, for the entire year, major indices saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 25.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 38.84%, and the ChiNext Index up by 58.73% [4] Industry Highlights Military Equipment Sector - The military equipment sector showed resilience, with stocks like Andavere hitting a 20% limit up, and other companies such as Aviation Power and Yaxing Anchor Chain also reaching their limit up [6] - Recent developments include the successful first flight of China's first electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, led by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation [8] - Analysts suggest that the increasing complexity of the international environment necessitates advanced military equipment, indicating a long-term positive outlook for the military industry [9] AI Sector - Despite a downturn in the Hong Kong market, several AI concept stocks surged, with Zhizhu rising over 140% this week [10][11] - The launch of new AI models coinciding with the Lunar New Year is expected to attract significant consumer interest, marking a competitive "Spring Festival release season" [13] - The global AI agent market is rapidly expanding, with notable projects like OpenClaw gaining traction, indicating a shift towards more capable execution-type AI [13] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector experienced a sharp decline, with significant drops in gold and silver prices, attributed to geopolitical factors and market volatility [15][16] - Recent reports indicate that algorithmic trading may have exacerbated the sell-off in precious metals, with profit-taking and margin calls contributing to the downturn [18]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that a slow bull market does not mean the absence of bear markets, highlighting that even in a slow bull market, significant downturns can occur [6][24]. - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 has experienced severe bear markets, including declines of over 80% in 1929 and 50% during the 2000-2003 tech bubble [11][21][22]. - Investors should be prepared for the reality of a slow bull market, which can include long periods of stagnation and significant drawdowns [24][26]. Group 2 - The article distinguishes between index performance and individual stock performance, noting that while indices may show a slow bull trend, many individual stocks can perform poorly [30][32]. - For instance, since 2022, the S&P 500 has performed well, but excluding the top seven companies, the overall gains have been limited, with around 3,000 companies delisted in recent years [32][33]. - This indicates that investors may face significant risks even in a rising market, as individual stock performance can vary widely [34][38]. Group 3 - The article discusses the rapid shifts in market styles during a slow bull market, where the index may appear stable while individual stocks experience volatility [40][41]. - This "meat grinder" market condition can lead to significant losses for investors who attempt to chase trends or predict market leaders [42]. Group 4 - The characteristics of the A-share market differ from those of the U.S. market, with A-shares often experiencing long periods of consolidation after initial gains [45][46]. - Historical examples illustrate that even in bullish markets, there can be extended periods of no growth, leading to investor frustration [52][54]. Group 5 - The article warns of potential liquidity shocks that can occur without warning, affecting market stability and investor confidence [57]. - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced approach to their portfolios, especially during market fluctuations, to mitigate risks associated with sudden market movements [61][64]. Group 6 - The article presents a comparative analysis of returns, indicating that while the Shanghai Composite Index has outperformed the S&P 500 since 2005, many investors still face challenges due to poor timing and high entry points [66][71]. - It suggests that slow bull markets can be more conducive to generating profits due to lower volatility, despite not always yielding higher returns than fast bull markets [75][78]. Group 7 - Recommendations for navigating a slow bull market include avoiding high entry points, being cautious with high valuations, and maintaining patience during periods of stagnation [85][88][90]. - Investors should also control their positions and avoid frequent trading to reduce the risk of losses during volatile periods [94][96].

Core Viewpoint - The essence of value investing is misunderstood; it revolves around the concept of "floating capital," utilizing dividends from quality companies for capital allocation, which can be used for both investment and speculation [2] Group 1 - The goal of achieving dividend freedom equates to investment freedom, determined by the number of shares held and the purchase price [2] - The strategy emphasizes being a net buyer until the target number of shares is reached, with a focus on acquiring shares at lower prices [2] - Price fluctuations are deemed irrelevant as long as the company's fundamentals remain intact; the significance of price is only at the time of purchase [2] Group 2 - The investment approach advocates for a diversified portfolio rather than focusing on individual stocks, with a preference for a balanced allocation among three key assets: "old wine cellar," "business hall," and "hydropower station" [3] - The strategy allows for temporary concentration in a single asset if significant opportunities arise before achieving overall investment goals [3] - The investment philosophy stresses the importance of understanding the essence of investments and the long-term journey towards wealth freedom [3] Group 3 - The "Snowball Three-Point Method" promotes long-term investment and asset allocation through diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve diversified investment returns and risk mitigation [4]