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靠网格交易薅市场波动的羊毛?小心它悄悄偷走你的牛市收益
雪球· 2025-11-01 13:01
以下文章来源于晨星投资说 ,作者陪你聊策略的 晨星投资说 . 全球知名投资研究机构晨星Morningstar,与您一同探索投资星球。我们的使命是"赋能投资者成功"! ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 晨星Morningstar 屈辰晨 来源:雪球 最近市场波动加剧 , 一种被称为 " 网格交易 " 的策略又火了 。 它被不少人视为震荡市中的 " 省心神器 " —— 通过自动化 、 纪律化的交易规则 , 轻松实现低买高卖 , 从而提高收益 。 听起来 , 它似乎是一种能帮助我们穿越市场波动 、 持续盈利的完美工具 。 但这个看似能 " 自动赚钱 " 的策略 , 真能带我们走向长期的财富增值吗 ? 01 什么是网格交易 ? 网格交易是一种基于市场价格波动的自动化交易策略 。 其核心逻辑是 : 先把手里的资金分成好几份 , 再提前划定一个价格区间 , 接着把这个区间拆成一个个等 距的 " 价格网 " 。 当投资标的的价格跌到其中一个格子时 , 就买入一部分资产 ; 而当价格涨到某个格子时 , 就卖一部分资 产 。 网格 ...
“老登”不行了,可能意味着一个时代的落幕
雪球· 2025-11-01 03:55
以下文章来源于懒人养基 ,作者懒人养基 懒人养基 . 雪球21年度十大新锐用户、22年度基金影响力用户,私企业主,经济学硕士,《基金投资全攻略》作 者。早期靠创业获取主动收入,从17年开始,逐步将经营产生的余钱、闲钱,几乎全部逢低买入权益基 金,从赚取主动收入慢慢向赚取被动收入过渡。价值投资践行者 作者:懒人养基 来源:雪球 东北方言里的 " 老登 " 一词穿透市井烟火 , 放到投资领域 , 它早已超越了字面的调侃意味 。 在A股市场的语境中 , " 老登 " 既是死守白酒 、 地产等行业的投资者群体 , 也暗指那些正在 失去时代光环的夕阳产业 。 2025年科技股牛市的狂欢与传统板块的落寞形成鲜明对比 , 这不 仅是市场风格的切换 , 更昭示着一个投资时代的悄然终结 —— 不是因为 " 老登 " 们老了 , 而 是他们所依附的产业逻辑 , 正在被新的时代需求所抛弃 。 01 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 传统行业式微 : 使用场景的系统性萎缩 传统行业的式微 , 本质是使用场景的系统性萎缩 。 曾几何时 , 白酒企 ...
从单药博弈到系统制胜:创新药投资的“能力锚”与“全球局”
雪球· 2025-11-01 03:55
↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者:超级泥头车 来源:雪球 创新药投资的本质是 " 高风险 、 高回报 " 的概率游戏 , 核心围绕 " 潜在重磅药 " 的价值兑现周期展开 —— 这是我一直以来的核心观点 。 但近期对药企发展史的关注 , 让我跳出了 " 单药临床-获批-商业化 " 的阶段性价值框架 , 看到了另一重 更底层的逻辑 : 对终局型大药企与MNC而言 , 单药的成败只是 " 概率事件 " , 而企业构建的 " 系统能 力 " 才是穿越周期 、 放大胜率的核心 。 同时 , 他认为市场上存在一种普遍误区 : 非医药背景投资者将管线拆成Excel " 算命 " , 把峰值销售额 算到小数点后两位 , 却忽略了 " 管线≠未来现金流 " 的行业常识 , 管线再好能不能卖得好是未知 。 我始 终强调创新药是 " 阶段性价值投资 " , 但这并不意味着迷信单药管线 —— 管线是创新药的 " 期权 " , 而 企业的系统能力才是 " 行权钥匙 " 。 脱离能力谈管线 , 就是耍流氓 。 我一直认为普通公司开到重磅药彩 ...
狂飙!2.6万亿亚马逊暴涨9%创新高!美股十月全线飘红!科技巨头财报能否驱散AI泡沫疑云?
雪球· 2025-11-01 03:55
↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 昨晚,美股三大指数集体收涨, 截止当地时间10月31日收盘,纳指涨0.61%,10月份累涨 4.7%;标普500指数涨0.26%,10月累涨2.27%;道指涨0.09%,10月累涨2.51%;其中,纳 指月线7连涨,道指、标普500指数月线6连涨。 值得一提的是, 本周"科技七巨头"中的微软、苹果、谷歌、亚马逊和Meta都已陆续发布财报, 也成为市场检验本轮科技牛市的窗口。 分析称,尽管美科技巨头财报亮眼、AI投资持续加码,但美联储政策分歧、高利率抑制 房地产 与 消费 、政府停摆风险及贸易不确定性,共同压制美股上涨空间,市场对增长前景趋于谨慎。 01 科技七巨头多数下跌 美股科技七巨头多数下跌,截至收盘,亚马逊收涨9.58%,特斯拉涨3.74%,谷歌A则收跌 0.10%,英伟达跌0.20%,苹果跌0.38%,微软跌1.51%,Meta跌2.72%。 亚马逊宣布第三季度云计算部门营收增长20%,超出华尔街预期。苹果报告第四财季业绩强劲, 并发布了关于第四季度业绩的乐观展望。分析称,包括亚马逊财报在内,最新一轮财报暂时缓解 了市场对AI泡沫的担忧。 | ( | MAG7 | ...
对普通人来说,最好的理财方式是不吃晚饭?
雪球· 2025-10-31 13:00
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of saving money as a foundational step for wealth accumulation, especially for individuals in the early stages of their financial journey [7][9][16] - It highlights that saving small amounts consistently can lead to significant financial growth over time, contrasting the difficulty of achieving high investment returns [12][13][16] - The concept of "lifestyle creep" is introduced, explaining how increased income often leads to higher spending, which can hinder savings [20][24][25] Group 2 - The article suggests that individuals should establish clear long-term financial goals to balance saving and spending effectively [32][36] - It recommends a budgeting method called "50/30/20," which allocates income into necessary expenses, discretionary spending, and savings or investments [35] - The importance of making conscious trade-offs in spending to achieve financial freedom in the future is emphasized [36][37]
重挫!新易盛跌8%,中际旭创跌8%,胜宏科技跌超10%!大消费久违回暖,白酒、食品板块纷纷上涨...
雪球· 2025-10-31 08:19
今日市场震荡调整,截至收盘,上证指数跌0.81%,深证成指跌1.14%,创业板指跌2.31%。沪深两市成交额2.32万亿,较上一个交易日缩量 1039亿。 板块方面,医药、影视院线、食品、白酒等板块涨幅居前,存储芯片、CPO等板块跌幅居前。 算力硬件概念股集体下跌,"易中天"光模块三巨头大幅调整。 01 算力硬件股持续下挫 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 科技股和非科技股再现"跷跷板"效应。 例如,以新易盛为例,该公司 第三季度60.68亿元的营业收入,环比第二季度下降近5%;归母净利润23.8亿元,环比仅微增0.6%。同时,这打破 了公司自2023年第一季度以来营业收入连续环比增长的纪录。 面对光模块板块的高涨幅, 机构观点开始出现分歧 。 摩根士丹利在9月份的研报中表达了谨慎态度,认为"大多数基本面上的积极因素已经得到了 反映",建议投资者"在共识情绪保持乐观之际获利了结"。 然而, 花旗对光模块持乐观观点 ,认为"考虑到2027年强劲需求更为明朗,整体叙事依然具有说服力,光模块企业有望获得估值重估"。 对于新易盛三季报净利润低于预期,花旗分析称,新易盛股价波动 很可能是一次性事件,净利润预计将在第 ...
当下真的是买量化的好时点吗?
雪球· 2025-10-31 08:19
以下文章来源于风云君的研究笔记 ,作者专注私募研究的 风云君的研究笔记 . 深耕私募行业多年,专注私募基金各个策略以及资产配置,希望能分享给大家更深入、更专业的私募那 些事。 此轮强势上涨,或许真如2015年《人民日报》所提到的那样,"4000点才是A股牛市的开端"。 当然,风云君还是要稍作提醒,4000点这个关键点位难免会有些情绪的波动和结构的反复。 当下最好的状态,应该是在乐观中保留一份理性,重视持仓结构或许比单纯判断方向更重要。 说回私募市场,近期量化策略的情绪面开始回暖,迎来了一轮普遍的超额修复。 无论是我们持续跟踪的指增、量选,还是全指指增、小市值指增等细分策略,都有很好的表现。 主要还是因为近期的市场行情有所转变,对于整体量化相对比较友好。 首先是量化比较适合当下交投比较活跃的市场。虽然前期市场有些缩量,但当下市场的成交量和 活跃度处于比较高的分位,处于相对适合量化区间。 其次,市场逐渐回归相对均衡和轮动的节奏。我们可以看到,像之前资金集体抱团科技、一家独 大的情况显然有所缓和。行业开始逐渐有序轮动起来,个股极端分化趋于收敛,这正适合量化去 挖掘超额。 此外,此前承压的小微盘股也开始活跃起来。经历 ...
白酒最黑暗的时刻结束了?
雪球· 2025-10-31 08:19
以下文章来源于朱酒 ,作者朱酒 朱酒 . 职业投资人,央视《投资者说》嘉宾,雪球网年度十大影响力用户,《看透地产股》和《个人投资者的 股市生存之道》作者。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 朱酒 来源:雪球 泸州老窖三季报出炉 , 正式宣告白酒股最黑暗的时刻结束了 ! 我知道这句话说出来 , 会被很多人喷的 , 但这就是市场告诉我们的现实 ! 就像我在今年6月 , 全市场都在喊白酒股要崩溃的时候 , 告诉大家白酒股股价的底部已经出来了 , 可当时有几 个人信呢 ? 6月份 , 泸州老窖的股价最低到了102.93元 , 4个月过去 , 到今天的收盘价129.88元 , 已 经有了26.18%的涨幅 , 明显超过同期大盘18.06%的收益 。 这就是股市 , 如果你一直被舆论所左右 , 就会失去最好的投资机会 , 然后只能一路追高 , 为那些敢于在市场最低点加仓的投资者买单 ! 在三季报出炉之前 , 各机构对泸州老窖的业绩测算 , 基本上都是归母净利润同比下滑20%左右 , 可数据出来 , 降幅只有13.07% , ...
不再盲目自信!抄主流机构和投资大师的作业,赚钱反而更简单!
雪球· 2025-10-30 13:01
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation over attempting to achieve quick wealth through market timing, advocating for a disciplined investment approach that focuses on high-probability strategies rather than low-probability ones [4][6]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The author implemented a three-part asset allocation strategy (6:3:1 for stocks, bonds, and commodities) starting with an initial investment of 50,000 yuan and a weekly investment of 1,000 yuan, achieving a cumulative return of over 16% and an annualized return exceeding 22% with a maximum drawdown of approximately 8% [4][15]. - The article argues that there is no bad time to start asset allocation, as it can yield positive results regardless of market conditions, highlighting that even during periods of high uncertainty, good returns can be achieved [6][15]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Timing - The author notes that at the time of investment, there was significant uncertainty in both domestic and international markets, with high levels of caution among investors due to macroeconomic factors and asset valuations [6][9][10]. - Despite the challenging environment, the author emphasizes that asset allocation does not require precise market timing, as there are always undervalued assets available for investment [14][15]. Group 3: Dollar-Cost Averaging - The article discusses the benefits of dollar-cost averaging, stating that consistent investments can accumulate more shares during market downturns, allowing for better positioning when the market rebounds [19]. - The author experienced significant market volatility over the past year, but through disciplined investing, was able to capture gains without needing to predict market movements [16][18]. Group 4: Adding to Positions - The author identifies specific instances where adding to positions during market downturns proved beneficial, citing three occasions where additional investments were made during significant market declines [20][23]. - The strategy of adding to positions during dips is framed as a way to smooth out costs and enhance overall returns [24][25].
突发跳水!沪指失守4000点,全市场4100只个股下跌!3700亿算力龙头重挫8%...
雪球· 2025-10-30 07:50
Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a significant drop, with the ChiNext Index falling nearly 2% and the Shanghai Composite Index losing the 4000-point mark. By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.84% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 165.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with 4100 stocks declining across the market [3] Sector Performance - Energy metals, steel, quantum technology, and battery sectors showed the highest gains, while sectors such as CPO, gaming, and coal experienced the largest declines [4] Computing Power Sector - Computing hardware stocks collectively weakened, with significant declines in stocks like Tianfu Communication and New Yisheng [5] - New Yisheng's stock dropped nearly 8%, while Tianfu Communication fell over 11%. Other leading stocks like Shenghong Technology, Industrial Fulian, and SMIC also saw declines of over 3% [6][8] - Despite NVIDIA's overnight increase of nearly 3% and its market capitalization reaching 5.03 trillion USD, this did not positively impact the computing power industry chain today [7] Financial Results of Key Companies - New Yisheng reported a revenue of 16.505 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 221.70%, and a net profit of 6.327 billion yuan, up 284.37%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 6.068 billion yuan, a 152.53% increase, with a net profit of 2.385 billion yuan, up 205.38% [11] - Tianfu Communication achieved a revenue of 3.918 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a 63.63% increase, and a net profit of 1.465 billion yuan, up 50.07%. In Q3, revenue was 1.463 billion yuan, a 74.37% increase, with a net profit of 566 million yuan, up 75.68% [11] - Industrial Fulian reported a revenue of 603.931 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a 38.40% increase, and a net profit of 22.487 billion yuan, up 48.52%. In Q3, revenue was 243.172 billion yuan, a 42.81% increase, with a net profit of 10.373 billion yuan, up 62.04% [11] - Huatai Securities raised its revenue and earnings forecast for New Yisheng, anticipating growth from the upcoming 800G and 1.6T optical module products [11] CRO Sector - WuXi AppTec's stock fell by 8% following a shareholder reduction announcement, where the controlling shareholder plans to reduce up to 2% of the company's total shares [13][15] - WuXi AppTec reported a revenue of 32.857 billion yuan for the first three quarters, an 18.61% increase, and a net profit of 12.076 billion yuan, up 84.84% [15] Lithium Mining Sector - Lithium mining stocks saw significant gains, with Tianqi Lithium hitting the daily limit and closing up 9.67%. Other stocks like Guocheng Mining and Yongxing Materials also saw substantial increases [16][20] - Tianqi Lithium reported a net profit of 95.48 million yuan for Q3, a 119% increase, and a net profit of approximately 180 million yuan for the first three quarters, up 103% [23] - The report indicates that despite market fluctuations in lithium product prices, the company has improved its pricing mechanisms, which has positively impacted its financial performance [23]