Core Insights - The Kearney Reshoring Index experienced a significant decline in 2024 after two years of strong growth, raising questions about the sustainability of the recent upward trend in U.S. manufacturing [1][4][5] - Despite substantial investments in domestic manufacturing capacity, the growth of U.S. manufacturing output has nearly stagnated following the release of most potential capacity in early 2023 [2][7] - Mexico has benefited from the trend of reshoring, particularly in the automotive and electrical equipment sectors, but faces challenges such as weak infrastructure that limit its ability to absorb more manufacturing demand [1][19] Group 1: Reshoring Index and Manufacturing Output - The U.S. manufacturing reshoring index saw a reversal in 2024, with the manufacturing import ratio (MIR) increasing by 9%, indicating a shift back to reliance on low-cost Asian countries [5][11] - The domestic manufacturing output (MGO) growth rate has slowed to around 1%, significantly lower than the average growth rate of 30% from 2020 to 2022 [10][11] - The increase in imports from low-cost Asian countries, including a rise from $878 billion to $968 billion, highlights the growing dependency on these regions to meet domestic demand [11][14] Group 2: Mexico's Role and Challenges - Mexico remains a key trade partner for the U.S., with exports reaching $457 billion in 2024, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [16][17] - The manufacturing sector in Mexico is facing capacity constraints and infrastructure challenges, particularly in energy supply, which could hinder its ability to attract more manufacturing [19][20] - Labor costs in Mexico have risen by an average of 4% annually over the past two years, reducing its competitive edge against other low-cost countries [19][36] Group 3: U.S. Manufacturing Self-Sufficiency - The U.S. self-sufficiency index has declined as net imports increased by $155 billion while domestic manufacturing output grew by only $260 billion [25][29] - The imbalance between domestic production and imports indicates structural challenges within the U.S. manufacturing sector that need to be addressed for sustainable growth [25][40] - The anticipated increase in imports is driven by manufacturers preparing for potential tariff increases post-election, further complicating the self-sufficiency outlook [29][41] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - Despite the current challenges, there is a noticeable increase in the intention of U.S. companies to reshore manufacturing, with a 15% rise in CEOs planning to bring back operations within three years [30][31] - The motivations for reshoring are evolving, with geopolitical tensions becoming a significant factor for many CEOs, although cost remains the primary concern [33][36] - To successfully reshore, companies must invest in automation and workforce development while addressing supply chain vulnerabilities [39][40]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a new political and economic mindset that bridges the gap between wealth creation and public welfare, as highlighted by Pope Francis's call for genuine political dialogue to address socio-economic barriers [3][4]. Group 1: Economic and Social Disparities - The current global economic reality is characterized by a dual-track system that benefits a "mobile minority" at the expense of a "silent majority," as evidenced by the 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer, which found that 61% of respondents believe that governments and businesses make life harder for them, serving only the interests of a few [3][4]. - This perception of economic and public welfare disconnection stems from the era of hyper-globalization, where wealth creation was seen as the ultimate goal [3][4]. Group 2: Value Creation vs. Wealth Accumulation - Wealth should not be the ultimate goal but rather a natural outcome of creating real value; companies must focus on enhancing quality of life through products and services [4][5]. - John Kay's concept of the "roundabout way" suggests that pursuing happiness directly often leads to failure, paralleling the idea that wealth creation is a byproduct of pursuing value [5]. Group 3: Ethical Foundations of Capitalism - The article critiques the traditional capitalist view, particularly Milton Friedman’s assertion that a company's sole social responsibility is to increase profits, arguing that this has led to the wall between economic interests and public welfare [5][6]. - Adam Smith's foundational ideas of capitalism emphasize that a free enterprise system must be built on a solid moral and ethical foundation, with market participants adhering to principles of justice, prudence, and benevolence [6]. Group 4: Business as a Higher Calling - Pope Francis's perspective on business as a vocation suggests that when practitioners view their work as a higher calling, they can contribute to public good by increasing wealth that benefits all [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the leadership challenges in an era of uncertainty, emphasizing the need for leaders to adopt empathy, engage collective intelligence, and clarify decision-making principles to effectively navigate through crises [4][5]. Group 1: Leadership Challenges - The current era is marked by unpredictability and social polarization, leading to increased anxiety among the public, which has significantly impacted happiness indices in Western countries over the past fifteen years [5]. - Leaders face a dilemma: ignoring employee anxiety may be perceived as cold-hearted, while overly catering to these emotions can exacerbate unease, creating a challenging environment for effective leadership [5]. Group 2: Principles for Effective Leadership - **Principle One: Openness and Empathy** Leaders should allow team members to express their fears and anxieties while also sharing their own concerns, as authenticity is crucial for building trust [8]. - **Principle Two: Harnessing Collective Intelligence** Leaders must resist the urge to present themselves as having all the answers and instead engage the entire organization in problem-solving, which can alleviate anxiety and create real value [10][11]. - **Principle Three: Clarifying Decision-Making Principles** In uncertain times, it is essential for leaders to articulate clear decision-making principles that serve as a guide through challenges, fostering a sense of shared purpose among team members [12][13].

作者介绍 ｜ PROFILE 罗德侠（Paul A. Laudicina）是国际公认的战略与商业政策权威专家，现任科尔尼管理咨询公司 荣誉主席，并担任其创立的科尔尼全球商业政策委员会名誉主席。在2006至2012年间，他曾执掌 科尔尼全球业务，出任首席执行官兼董事会主席。其职业生涯始于联合国系统，具有深厚的国际 组织背景。罗德侠先生拥有芝加哥大学政治学学位，现任该校国际管理科学院副院长，同时是美 国外交关系协会的重要成员。作为国际贸易政策领域的资深专家，他曾获邀加入拜登总统出口委 员会，参与美国最高层级的国际贸易政策咨询工作。2019年，其卓越的专业贡献获得业界高度认 可，被 授予《咨询》杂志终身成就奖 。 英文原文首发于福布斯管理专栏，此为译文。 在持续聆听诸多关于全球经济濒临崩溃边缘的分析后，一位与我相交多年的企业掌舵人近日致 电询问，希望我能为当前世界局势提供一个更为乐观（或至少不那么悲观）的视角。 作为管理学领域长期秉持乐观主义的学者——或许源于五年前我出版的那本题为Roadmap to a Brighter Future《通往光明未来的路线图》的管理学书籍——他认为我或许能为这片阴霾笼罩 的天地勾勒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is entering a growth cycle driven by the elimination of outdated capacity and stable demand, with a projected global shipment volume of 1.5 TWh in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of over 25% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global lithium battery shipment volume is expected to exceed 1.5 TWh in 2024, with the power battery market remaining the primary application area, surpassing 1 TWh, and commercial vehicle lithium batteries entering a high growth phase with nearly 100 GWh [2]. - Energy storage is identified as a significant growth engine, with a shipment volume of 350 GWh in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 60% [2]. - The demand structure is anticipated to undergo a transformation in 2025, with the emergence of new applications such as low-altitude economy, electric ships, and AI-driven markets contributing to demand and value growth [4]. Group 2: Price Trends and Industry Recovery - The price war in the lithium battery industry is expected to ease, leading to a rational return of prices across the supply chain, which will provide a buffer for industry recovery [5][9]. - The lithium battery industry faced a supply shortage in 2021, leading to rapid price increases for upstream materials, but as planned capacity comes online and demand growth slows, the industry is entering a destocking phase, resulting in declining profitability for lithium salt and material companies [6]. Group 3: Long-term Challenges and Strategies - Long-term goals for the lithium battery industry include cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with current material price increases and stabilized battery prices providing a buffer, but structural supply-demand imbalances remain [10][11]. - Companies are focusing on expanding into diversified applications and global business development, with product innovation aimed at capturing new market opportunities [11]. - The commercial vehicle sector is particularly sensitive to cost, necessitating a balance between performance and total ownership costs [11]. Group 4: Technological Innovations - Material innovations are crucial for breaking performance ceilings, with advancements in lithium iron manganese phosphate and high-nickel ternary batteries [16]. - Manufacturing innovations, such as dry electrode processes and stacking techniques, are being adopted to reduce costs and improve precision [16]. - Smart manufacturing and digital twin systems are being implemented to enhance reliability and consistency in production [17]. Group 5: Business Model Innovations - The lithium battery industry is transitioning from a supply-demand imbalance to a focus on value creation, with companies exploring diversified business models and establishing ecological alliances to enhance market presence [20][21]. - Strategic partnerships between battery manufacturers and automotive companies are deepening, with joint ventures and investments aimed at securing supply chains and enhancing product development [22]. - The establishment of battery swapping services is being pursued to optimize user experience and drive market growth [23][24]. Group 6: International Expansion and Risk Management - The lithium battery industry is increasingly looking to international markets for growth, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia and the Middle East, driven by favorable resource endowments and investment environments [15]. - However, companies must navigate challenges such as market demand, trade barriers, and local compliance policies when expanding overseas [15]. - Risk management strategies are essential, including understanding local regulations, engaging in international standard-setting, and diversifying entry modes to mitigate potential challenges [15].

世界正迅速进入一个激动人心的医学新时代。曾经设计用于治疗数百万人的大型药物时代，正快速过渡到 个性化治疗的新纪元。依靠普适法则确保治疗方案适用于大多数受疗者，虽然惠及了无数人，但也使得许 多"非典型"患者无法获得有效的治疗解决方案——同时，支付方为无效治疗支付了大量资金。 在2021年，细胞和基因疗法（Cell and Gene Therapies, CGT）仅占全球药物市场总收入的0.8%。但随着超 过500种CGT进入研发状态，它们正准备在与传统技术的竞争中占据越来越大的市场份额。我们估计，全 球CGT市场将在2021年至2026年间以每年超过50%的年化增速增长，届时将有近200种疗法产生约570亿美 元的销售额，占全球药物市场的4%以上（见图1）。确实，CGT正逐步发展成为标准治疗的下一个浪潮， 瞄准一些现代社会中最常见的疾病，包括镰状细胞贫血、2型糖尿病和阿尔茨海默症。 美国FDA和其他监管机构已经批准了CGT（细胞与基因治疗）用于治疗冠状动脉疾病、遗传性视网膜病、 大B细胞淋巴瘤和脊髓性肌萎缩症等多种病理现象。 然而，最近的上市情况喜忧参半，公司在摸索前进时面临着未知的挑战，包括与往往百万美元的定 ...

自疫情爆发以来，美妆个护行业的并购活动相比其他行业具有更强的韧性。 2024年美妆个护行业的并 购交易总数量达到了历史新高。 该行业的复苏能力得益于有利的宏观趋势，为其在未来实现可持续增 长以及扩大利润空间提供了支撑。 与X世代和婴儿潮一代相比，千禧一代、Z世代和阿尔法世代更加关注健康和幸福指数，这使得他们 对产品的使用率更高、购买量更大，并且更愿意为产品支付更高的价格，因而持续吸引着投资者的关 注。然而疫情也凸显出了消费者偏好的转变。虽然美妆个护市场的某些领域受到了广泛关注，但其他 领域却面临着挑战，这表明市场分化正在加剧。 对投资者来说未来12到18个月是一个难得的机遇期。 大型跨国公司正面临重新平衡其投资组合的压 力，资产剥离的情况将变得越来越普遍。与此同时，寻求回笼资金的私募股权投资者会处置那些持有 时间较长的资产，这将进一步增加市场上资产的供应。我们预计这将为投资者创造难得的机会，使其 能够以优惠的估值收购资产。 但随着优质资产日益稀缺，同时流动性得以恢复，来自企业和私募股权的竞争可能会引发竞价大战。 对于那些寻求投资组合转型、实现增长并在美妆个护市场占据领先地位的投资者来说，现在正是适合 采取行动 ...

美国推出新一轮的单边关税政策 1 2025年4月2日，在美国的"解放日"中，美国政府宣布了国家紧急状态并推出了覆盖所有美国贸易伙伴 的"互惠"(reciprocal)关税政策。而在此之前，已经有多项针对其主要贸易伙伴（如中国，加拿大、墨 西哥等）的关税政策出台，部分已经进入执行状态。 在2024年，美国的进出口逆差超过了1.2万亿美元 1 ，在此情况下这一次的关税体现了两个特点，第 一为覆盖范围广——覆盖所有贸易伙伴，即使美国的贸易顺差国家也被加以10%的关税，第二为有针 对性的差异化税率，美国的主要贸易逆差国家和地区被加征更高的关税。 | 2 | | --- | 美国与中国的关税博弈自2018年始， 特朗普开始第二任期后再次升级 本文选自科尔尼 2025 年 4 月 8 日刊发的行业通讯，现全文分享。 中美作为全球最大的两大经济体，2024年中美双边贸易额约6800亿美元，其中美国对中国出口约 1600亿美元，美国从中国进口约5200亿美元，贸易逆差约3600亿美元 2 。 其中中国主要出口机电产品、纺织鞋服、金属制品等，美国主要出口机械电子、农产品、能源等，因 此这些行业中的企业受关税影响较大。 美国政府 ...

研究显示，亚太地区的医院经历了从稳步扩张、大流行冲击、上坡恢复到持续增长等阶段。在每个阶段， 我们都分析了医院收入、手术数量和病床占用率与 GDP 同比增长率的关系。 在新冠之前，该地区的医院通过收购和提供更多服务不断扩张。这使得医院收入稳定增长5%至10%，手 术数量增长 10%至 15%，病床占用率稳定在65%至70%，与该地区 4%至 5%的 GDP 增长率保持一致。 尽管医院规模稳步扩大，但大流行病暴露了医院系统的严重弱点，导致收入减少，病床占用率因可用病床 短缺而上升。手术也被推迟或取消，因为病人为了尽量减少接触病毒的风险而回避医院。 后新冠时代，虽然没有了集中性的疾病冲击，医院正面临着一系列趋势和挑战。为了解整个亚太地区目前 的医院经营环境，科尔尼公司在 2022 年至 2024年期间调研了25位医院高管和150多位患者。 与此同时，运营更加灵活的医院能够迅速做出调整。例如，新加坡陈笃生医院（Tan Tock Seng Hospital） 将膝关节置换手术转变为采用增强型术后恢复（ERAS）模式的非卧床手术，将住院时间从六天缩短为一 天。 随着疫苗接种率超过人口的40%，选择性手术出现反弹，到 2 ...

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