Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical phase of China's "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) as a window for strategic transformation for group enterprises amidst global industrial restructuring, technological breakthroughs, and carbon neutrality goals. It introduces an "Eight Battles" framework to address the complexities faced by these enterprises in navigating traditional business challenges while seizing opportunities in emerging industries [1][24]. Group 1: Strategic Challenges - Group enterprises must recognize the core trends during the "15th Five-Year Plan" amidst uncertainties, focusing on three overlapping shocks: geopolitical conflicts, accelerated technological transitions, and social structural changes [1]. - Despite the inability to predict macroeconomic trends accurately, enterprises can identify four certainty axes: continuation of globalization, economic center shifting eastward, deepening technological revolution, and endogenous economic growth in China [2][3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Positioning - Enterprises need to transform their strategic positioning from administrative control to value management, focusing on resource allocation, risk management, and capital distribution based on ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) [8][11]. - The role of group headquarters should evolve into a guiding force for strategic direction, capability builder, and risk management facilitator [8]. Group 3: Business Portfolio Management - A systematic evaluation of industry attractiveness and business competitiveness is essential to categorize existing business units into core, growth, and opportunity/adjustment segments [11]. - Enterprises should adopt a dual approach of enhancing core capabilities while exploring adjacent and new business opportunities for optimization and upgrading [11][15]. Group 4: Asset Optimization - Controlling low-yield or non-viable business assets is crucial to avoid inefficient expansion and ensure healthy business development [13]. - Establishing a "ROIC-Cost of Capital" management mechanism can aid in effective asset optimization by categorizing businesses into growth/core, opportunity/adjustment, and exit categories [13]. Group 5: Management Efficiency - Improving operational efficiency and optimizing internal management processes should be a focus during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [18]. - A comprehensive planning mechanism from strategic formulation to execution and review is necessary to enhance overall management quality [18]. Group 6: Control Model - The construction of a support system is vital for group enterprises, emphasizing the restructuring of resource acquisition and utilization paths [20]. - The "4S" functions (Shaping, Servicing, Safeguarding, Skill) should be leveraged to enhance management capabilities and market competitiveness [21]. Group 7: Integrated Strategy Model - Enterprises should develop a tri-circle linkage strategy model encompassing industry, assets, and capital to drive growth [22]. - This model involves a dynamic cycle of strategic planning, execution, and review, supported by effective resource allocation and capital operation strategies [22]. Conclusion - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period represents a pivotal transition for group enterprises from efficiency-driven to innovation-driven growth [24]. - The interconnectedness of the "Eight Battles" will enable enterprises to transform strategic planning into capabilities, thereby achieving resilience and leadership in value creation during turbulent times [24].

Core Viewpoint - The development of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) is set to revolutionize the aviation industry by creating new applications in passenger transport, cargo delivery, and infrastructure inspection, with a projected market size of nearly $80 billion by 2034 due to increasing demand for efficient, green, and rapid transportation solutions [2][3]. Group 1: AAM Market Growth and Applications - AAM is expected to grow significantly, driven by the need for efficient and sustainable transportation solutions in urban and rural areas [2]. - The AAM technology framework includes various types of aircraft, such as small drones and large electric planes, which are innovating the aviation industry through autonomous operation and propulsion system advancements [2][3]. - The current stage of AAM is characterized by a rapid growth phase, particularly in the drone application sector, with hundreds of pilot projects being implemented globally [2][3]. Group 2: Responsible AAM Implementation - The World Economic Forum and Kearney have released a white paper outlining three core elements for the responsible implementation of AAM [4][5]. - The first element focuses on establishing a responsible strategic direction for AAM, emphasizing the importance of safety, sustainability, and economic growth [6][7]. - The second element involves clarifying the primary tasks of stakeholders in the AAM value chain and promoting collaborative efforts among regulators, investors, manufacturers, and operators [18][19]. - The third element reviews key experiences from early drone deployments, which can inform larger AAM applications and highlight the complexities of real-world implementation [28][29]. Group 3: Stakeholder Responsibilities - Each stakeholder in the AAM value chain has specific responsibilities that are interconnected, requiring strategic collaboration to overcome challenges [21][22]. - Regulators are tasked with creating legal frameworks and safety standards, while investors focus on funding early pilots and infrastructure [22][23]. - Infrastructure providers must develop the necessary physical and digital infrastructure, and suppliers are responsible for creating adaptable components [25][27]. - Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) need to ensure compliance with safety standards and adapt their designs to market needs [25][27]. Group 4: Lessons from Drone Deployments - Real-world drone deployment experiences provide valuable insights for the broader AAM industry, particularly in operational feasibility, economic viability, and social acceptance [30][31]. - Successful drone applications, such as the WFP's DEEP program for disaster response, demonstrate the potential of drones in humanitarian efforts and the importance of collaboration among various stakeholders [33][34]. - The Costa Rica Flying Labs initiative showcases how local capacity building and low-cost technology can enhance environmental monitoring efforts [37][38]. - The MFTS program in India illustrates the effectiveness of drones in improving medical logistics in remote areas, emphasizing the need for stakeholder cooperation and regulatory support [42][43]. Group 5: Future Outlook for AAM - The future of AAM will depend on its ability to create social value and integrate seamlessly into existing transportation networks [49][50]. - As AAM technologies evolve, new applications will emerge, enhancing the efficiency of goods and people movement while addressing public safety and environmental monitoring needs [49][50]. - A structured, phased approach is necessary to balance innovation with safety and social acceptance, ensuring that the principles guiding AAM development are effectively implemented [48][50].

Core Insights - The article discusses the "health paradox," where despite 85% of consumers believing they know the keys to health, issues like lack of exercise, obesity, and chronic diseases persist globally [2][4][8] - It categorizes consumers into three groups based on their health behaviors: "Health Postponers," "Balance Seekers," and "Health Investors," highlighting the need for brands to understand consumer struggles to innovate effectively [2][9][11] Group 1: Health Paradox - Despite widespread awareness of health principles, many individuals fail to act on them due to life's distractions and the allure of instant gratification [2][4] - The definition of health is evolving, incorporating aspects like mental well-being and self-care, which complicates consumer choices [5][8] Group 2: Consumer Segmentation - The study identifies three consumer groups: - "Health Postponers" (50% of respondents) prioritize other life aspects over health, often due to time and financial constraints [11][15] - "Balance Seekers" (19%) strive for a dynamic balance between health and daily life, often facing decision-making challenges [17][18] - "Health Investors" (31%) view health as a primary investment, actively prioritizing it in their lives [19][20] Group 3: Decision-Making Dynamics - Consumers face daily trade-offs between health ideals and real-life demands, which influences their health-related choices [21][22] - Taste is a critical factor in health decisions, with all groups prioritizing flavor over health benefits, indicating a potential misalignment in product offerings [23][24] Group 4: Emerging Opportunities - The article highlights new trends in consumer health demands, such as the rise of "clean beauty" and "emotional health management," indicating significant market opportunities [26][27][28] - There is a growing interest in gut health products, with a notable gap between current users and potential adopters, particularly among "Balance Seekers" [29] Group 5: Brand Strategies - Brands are encouraged to create solutions that resonate with consumers' real-life experiences, focusing on achievable health goals and emotional connections [31][32][33] - Emphasizing simplicity and core benefits in product offerings can help brands stand out in a crowded market [34] - Building emotional resonance with consumers is crucial, as health choices are often driven by psychological factors rather than just knowledge [35]

Core Viewpoint - Targeted policies and research reforms are essential to bridge the gaps in women's health research, which is currently insufficient despite higher healthcare service usage by women [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current State of Women's Health Research - Women's healthcare service usage is higher than men's, yet systematic research on women's health remains inadequate, leading to significant health risks [3][4]. - The medical information and treatments available are primarily based on male biology, neglecting the unique health needs of women [4]. - Women experience a longer lifespan but spend 25% more of their lives in poor health or with disabilities compared to men [5]. Group 2: Impact of Gender-Specific Research Gaps - Only 7% of medical research focuses on diseases that exclusively affect women, and there is a significant lack of gender-specific data in clinical trials [6][9]. - Women with chronic diseases face dilemmas regarding medication use during pregnancy, often risking unapproved drugs or halting treatment altogether [7]. - The absence of gender-specific data in clinical trials can lead to ineffective treatments and increased health risks for women [9]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations for Improvement - The white paper "Prescription for Change: Policy Recommendations for Women's Health Research" outlines strategic pathways to reduce the research gap, including regulatory reforms and financial incentives to encourage investment in women's health [10][11]. - Increasing female representation in clinical trials is crucial for improving health outcomes, particularly in key areas like cardiology and oncology [12]. - Standardizing data collection and promoting gender-specific risk-benefit assessments are necessary for better understanding unique gender effects [13]. Group 4: Designing Inclusive Clinical Trials - Education for researchers and trial staff on gender differences is vital for advancing women's health research [14]. - Clinical guidelines and drug labels should reflect gender-specific safety and efficacy data to ensure better health outcomes for women [15]. - Structural changes in clinical research are needed to ensure that innovations meet the diverse needs of women [17].

Market Overview - The life paper market in China is experiencing stable growth, driven by rising GDP and living standards, with further penetration potential in the market [2][4] - The structure of life paper categories is diversifying, with the share of basic categories like toilet paper decreasing from 60% a decade ago to 45% currently, while categories like wet wipes and kitchen paper are rapidly gaining market share [2][4] Product Upgrade Trends - The upgrade of life paper products is influenced by consumer quality demands, regional development potential, and policy support, focusing on scenario design, functional enhancement, raw material upgrades, and technological innovation [4][5] - Key upgrade directions include enhancing functional attributes, upgrading raw materials, and innovating platform technologies, with a shift from chemical protection to biological protection [5] Retail Channel Dynamics - Traditional supermarkets remain the largest retail channel for life paper, but online channels are rapidly increasing their market share, driven by e-commerce platforms [7][9] - Four main factors are driving the growth of online channels: convenience of online shopping, bulk purchasing options, competitive pricing, and strong repurchase behavior among consumers [9][10][11] Supply Side Dynamics - The life paper industry is currently in a state of oversupply, with production capacity growth outpacing demand, leading to a decline in overall capacity utilization [20][22] - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with the top four brands holding a market share of 30-35%, significantly lower than the 70% in markets like the US and Japan [23][24] Challenges for Private Label Manufacturers - Intense price competition and market saturation are leading to challenges for private label manufacturers, with many facing pressure to compromise on quality due to low-price strategies [26][34] - Common issues include the use of substandard materials, misleading product descriptions, and quality inconsistencies across different sales channels [39][42] Recommendations for Industry Improvement - The industry should shift from a low-price focus to a value-oriented model, emphasizing quality and consumer education [49][57] - E-commerce platforms are encouraged to establish industry standards, enhance consumer education, and ensure compliance with quality regulations to foster a healthier market environment [58][60]

Core Insights - The Kearney Reshoring Index experienced a significant decline in 2024 after two years of strong growth, raising questions about the sustainability of the recent upward trend in U.S. manufacturing [1][4][5] - Despite substantial investments in domestic manufacturing capacity, the growth of U.S. manufacturing output has nearly stagnated following the release of most potential capacity in early 2023 [2][7] - Mexico has benefited from the trend of reshoring, particularly in the automotive and electrical equipment sectors, but faces challenges such as weak infrastructure that limit its ability to absorb more manufacturing demand [1][19] Group 1: Reshoring Index and Manufacturing Output - The U.S. manufacturing reshoring index saw a reversal in 2024, with the manufacturing import ratio (MIR) increasing by 9%, indicating a shift back to reliance on low-cost Asian countries [5][11] - The domestic manufacturing output (MGO) growth rate has slowed to around 1%, significantly lower than the average growth rate of 30% from 2020 to 2022 [10][11] - The increase in imports from low-cost Asian countries, including a rise from $878 billion to $968 billion, highlights the growing dependency on these regions to meet domestic demand [11][14] Group 2: Mexico's Role and Challenges - Mexico remains a key trade partner for the U.S., with exports reaching $457 billion in 2024, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [16][17] - The manufacturing sector in Mexico is facing capacity constraints and infrastructure challenges, particularly in energy supply, which could hinder its ability to attract more manufacturing [19][20] - Labor costs in Mexico have risen by an average of 4% annually over the past two years, reducing its competitive edge against other low-cost countries [19][36] Group 3: U.S. Manufacturing Self-Sufficiency - The U.S. self-sufficiency index has declined as net imports increased by $155 billion while domestic manufacturing output grew by only $260 billion [25][29] - The imbalance between domestic production and imports indicates structural challenges within the U.S. manufacturing sector that need to be addressed for sustainable growth [25][40] - The anticipated increase in imports is driven by manufacturers preparing for potential tariff increases post-election, further complicating the self-sufficiency outlook [29][41] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - Despite the current challenges, there is a noticeable increase in the intention of U.S. companies to reshore manufacturing, with a 15% rise in CEOs planning to bring back operations within three years [30][31] - The motivations for reshoring are evolving, with geopolitical tensions becoming a significant factor for many CEOs, although cost remains the primary concern [33][36] - To successfully reshore, companies must invest in automation and workforce development while addressing supply chain vulnerabilities [39][40]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a new political and economic mindset that bridges the gap between wealth creation and public welfare, as highlighted by Pope Francis's call for genuine political dialogue to address socio-economic barriers [3][4]. Group 1: Economic and Social Disparities - The current global economic reality is characterized by a dual-track system that benefits a "mobile minority" at the expense of a "silent majority," as evidenced by the 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer, which found that 61% of respondents believe that governments and businesses make life harder for them, serving only the interests of a few [3][4]. - This perception of economic and public welfare disconnection stems from the era of hyper-globalization, where wealth creation was seen as the ultimate goal [3][4]. Group 2: Value Creation vs. Wealth Accumulation - Wealth should not be the ultimate goal but rather a natural outcome of creating real value; companies must focus on enhancing quality of life through products and services [4][5]. - John Kay's concept of the "roundabout way" suggests that pursuing happiness directly often leads to failure, paralleling the idea that wealth creation is a byproduct of pursuing value [5]. Group 3: Ethical Foundations of Capitalism - The article critiques the traditional capitalist view, particularly Milton Friedman’s assertion that a company's sole social responsibility is to increase profits, arguing that this has led to the wall between economic interests and public welfare [5][6]. - Adam Smith's foundational ideas of capitalism emphasize that a free enterprise system must be built on a solid moral and ethical foundation, with market participants adhering to principles of justice, prudence, and benevolence [6]. Group 4: Business as a Higher Calling - Pope Francis's perspective on business as a vocation suggests that when practitioners view their work as a higher calling, they can contribute to public good by increasing wealth that benefits all [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the leadership challenges in an era of uncertainty, emphasizing the need for leaders to adopt empathy, engage collective intelligence, and clarify decision-making principles to effectively navigate through crises [4][5]. Group 1: Leadership Challenges - The current era is marked by unpredictability and social polarization, leading to increased anxiety among the public, which has significantly impacted happiness indices in Western countries over the past fifteen years [5]. - Leaders face a dilemma: ignoring employee anxiety may be perceived as cold-hearted, while overly catering to these emotions can exacerbate unease, creating a challenging environment for effective leadership [5]. Group 2: Principles for Effective Leadership - **Principle One: Openness and Empathy** Leaders should allow team members to express their fears and anxieties while also sharing their own concerns, as authenticity is crucial for building trust [8]. - **Principle Two: Harnessing Collective Intelligence** Leaders must resist the urge to present themselves as having all the answers and instead engage the entire organization in problem-solving, which can alleviate anxiety and create real value [10][11]. - **Principle Three: Clarifying Decision-Making Principles** In uncertain times, it is essential for leaders to articulate clear decision-making principles that serve as a guide through challenges, fostering a sense of shared purpose among team members [12][13].

作者介绍 ｜ PROFILE 罗德侠（Paul A. Laudicina）是国际公认的战略与商业政策权威专家，现任科尔尼管理咨询公司 荣誉主席，并担任其创立的科尔尼全球商业政策委员会名誉主席。在2006至2012年间，他曾执掌 科尔尼全球业务，出任首席执行官兼董事会主席。其职业生涯始于联合国系统，具有深厚的国际 组织背景。罗德侠先生拥有芝加哥大学政治学学位，现任该校国际管理科学院副院长，同时是美 国外交关系协会的重要成员。作为国际贸易政策领域的资深专家，他曾获邀加入拜登总统出口委 员会，参与美国最高层级的国际贸易政策咨询工作。2019年，其卓越的专业贡献获得业界高度认 可，被 授予《咨询》杂志终身成就奖 。 英文原文首发于福布斯管理专栏，此为译文。 在持续聆听诸多关于全球经济濒临崩溃边缘的分析后，一位与我相交多年的企业掌舵人近日致 电询问，希望我能为当前世界局势提供一个更为乐观（或至少不那么悲观）的视角。 作为管理学领域长期秉持乐观主义的学者——或许源于五年前我出版的那本题为Roadmap to a Brighter Future《通往光明未来的路线图》的管理学书籍——他认为我或许能为这片阴霾笼罩 的天地勾勒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is entering a growth cycle driven by the elimination of outdated capacity and stable demand, with a projected global shipment volume of 1.5 TWh in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of over 25% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global lithium battery shipment volume is expected to exceed 1.5 TWh in 2024, with the power battery market remaining the primary application area, surpassing 1 TWh, and commercial vehicle lithium batteries entering a high growth phase with nearly 100 GWh [2]. - Energy storage is identified as a significant growth engine, with a shipment volume of 350 GWh in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 60% [2]. - The demand structure is anticipated to undergo a transformation in 2025, with the emergence of new applications such as low-altitude economy, electric ships, and AI-driven markets contributing to demand and value growth [4]. Group 2: Price Trends and Industry Recovery - The price war in the lithium battery industry is expected to ease, leading to a rational return of prices across the supply chain, which will provide a buffer for industry recovery [5][9]. - The lithium battery industry faced a supply shortage in 2021, leading to rapid price increases for upstream materials, but as planned capacity comes online and demand growth slows, the industry is entering a destocking phase, resulting in declining profitability for lithium salt and material companies [6]. Group 3: Long-term Challenges and Strategies - Long-term goals for the lithium battery industry include cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with current material price increases and stabilized battery prices providing a buffer, but structural supply-demand imbalances remain [10][11]. - Companies are focusing on expanding into diversified applications and global business development, with product innovation aimed at capturing new market opportunities [11]. - The commercial vehicle sector is particularly sensitive to cost, necessitating a balance between performance and total ownership costs [11]. Group 4: Technological Innovations - Material innovations are crucial for breaking performance ceilings, with advancements in lithium iron manganese phosphate and high-nickel ternary batteries [16]. - Manufacturing innovations, such as dry electrode processes and stacking techniques, are being adopted to reduce costs and improve precision [16]. - Smart manufacturing and digital twin systems are being implemented to enhance reliability and consistency in production [17]. Group 5: Business Model Innovations - The lithium battery industry is transitioning from a supply-demand imbalance to a focus on value creation, with companies exploring diversified business models and establishing ecological alliances to enhance market presence [20][21]. - Strategic partnerships between battery manufacturers and automotive companies are deepening, with joint ventures and investments aimed at securing supply chains and enhancing product development [22]. - The establishment of battery swapping services is being pursued to optimize user experience and drive market growth [23][24]. Group 6: International Expansion and Risk Management - The lithium battery industry is increasingly looking to international markets for growth, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia and the Middle East, driven by favorable resource endowments and investment environments [15]. - However, companies must navigate challenges such as market demand, trade barriers, and local compliance policies when expanding overseas [15]. - Risk management strategies are essential, including understanding local regulations, engaging in international standard-setting, and diversifying entry modes to mitigate potential challenges [15].