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2025年科尔尼行业系列回顾|经济与政策
科尔尼管理咨询· 2025-12-30 01:06
Group 1 - The global economic uncertainty is significantly increasing due to the interplay of geopolitical factors, tariff adjustments, and technological changes, which are reshaping growth and capital flows for the next five years [1][2]. - Companies and cities must enhance their competitiveness by gaining insights into structural trends and maintaining resilience and decisive decision-making in a volatile environment [1][2]. Group 2 - The next five years will see five major variables, including geopolitical dynamics, technological breakthroughs, and institutional evolution, profoundly reshaping the global operational logic, necessitating companies to identify long-term trends rather than being swayed by short-term fluctuations [2][3]. - Commodity prices are expected to be highly differentiated and volatile, requiring companies to adopt data-driven procurement and pricing systems to improve their ability to respond to cyclical and structural changes [4]. Group 3 - Adjustments in tariff policies are altering foreign direct investment expectations, presenting Asian economies with critical challenges in capital reallocation and industrial layout decisions [7]. - In the context of increasing global uncertainty, urban competitiveness is shifting from historical advantages to innovation capabilities, digital infrastructure, and talent aggregation effects [10]. Group 4 - The global economic outlook indicates a coexistence of recovery and downward risks, with regional growth becoming differentiated, where Asia emerges as a primary growth engine despite ongoing trade slowdowns and fragmentation pressures [13]. - CEOs are shifting their focus from mere efficiency and growth to resilience, trust, and organizational adaptability to navigate the ongoing global turbulence [14].
2025年科尔尼行业系列回顾|制造业与能源化工
科尔尼管理咨询· 2025-12-24 10:07
Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the manufacturing and energy-chemical industries will enter a rebalancing phase under multiple structural pressures, with geopolitical changes and trade rules reshaping global layouts. The focus will shift from "betting on growth" to "realizing value" as companies seek sustainable returns through asset optimization, capability restructuring, and operational upgrades [1]. Group 1: Manufacturing "15th Five-Year" Layout - The "15th Five-Year" plan (2026-2030) is a critical period for China's modernization by 2035, emphasizing the need for manufacturing enterprises to anticipate socio-economic and technological trends, plan high-quality development paths, and enhance international competitiveness amid geopolitical tensions [4]. Group 2: Asset Operation Restructuring - Energy and chemical companies must optimize asset layouts through normative analysis to enhance long-term decision-making certainty and return rates, particularly in the context of geopolitical and demand structure changes [7]. Group 3: Digital Transformation - Oil and gas companies face limitations in AI potential due to data quality and system fragmentation. Establishing a high-quality data foundation and governance mechanisms is essential to unlock the value of AI and digitalization in supply chain and operational transformations [9]. Group 4: Chemical M&A Recovery - The chemical industry is witnessing a gradual recovery in M&A activities, driven by overcapacity, weak demand, and tariff uncertainties. Companies and private equity are seeking growth paths through portfolio restructuring and regional diversification [11]. Group 5: Accelerated Power M&A - The demand for large data centers is driving a new wave of M&A in the U.S. power sector, compelling power companies to enhance scale, delivery capabilities, and clean energy supply to compete for core customers [13]. Group 6: Electrification Investment Decisions - The electrification trend brings substantial capital investments, but profitability is not guaranteed. Investment returns depend on asset utilization rates, contract structures, and service models, necessitating a careful balance between infrastructure and digital platforms [15]. Group 7: Renewable Value Realignment - The renewable energy sector is transitioning from a narrative of rapid growth to one focused on capability and return realization. Factors such as subsidy reductions, grid constraints, and rising capital costs are pushing companies to reshape their competitive edge through market-oriented capabilities [17]. Group 8: CCUS Commercial Breakthrough - Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is emerging as a viable decarbonization pathway in high-emission industries, but its adoption is constrained by economic viability and carbon pricing mechanisms. Innovative business models and policy collaboration are crucial for large-scale implementation [19]. Group 9: Industrial Aftermarket Opportunities - The industrial aftermarket is becoming a significant profit engine for OEMs, with growth rates of 7.8% in China and 6.5% globally. Companies can achieve steady and high-quality growth through network expansion, complexity management, and pricing capability upgrades [21]. Group 10: CBAM Cost Restructuring - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is reshaping competitive rules in high-carbon industries like steel. Importers need to proactively manage emissions accounting, supply chain adjustments, and cost transfer mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of visible carbon costs [23]. Group 11: Infrastructure Innovation - Modern construction methods (MMC) are significantly enhancing efficiency, sustainability, and resilience in the global construction industry. Despite higher initial investments, the long-term value of MMC is becoming evident in global capital projects [25].
2025年科尔尼行业系列回顾|战略运营和绩效提升
科尔尼管理咨询· 2025-12-23 09:54
Core Insights - In 2025, corporate operations will enter a phase of systematic restructuring due to intensified geopolitical tensions and tariff disputes, leading to a rebalancing of manufacturing and procurement models alongside the accelerated integration of generative AI into core operational processes [1][2] Group 1: COO Role Evolution - The role of the COO is transitioning from a "firefighter" to a "strategic navigator" as generative AI reshapes operational processes, while skill shortages and ESG implementation delays pose significant challenges to operational upgrades [3][4] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for group enterprises to navigate eight key battles to achieve systematic breakthroughs amid rising strategic complexity [2][3] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - A new round of tariff disputes is reshaping global supply chains, compelling companies to rebalance between cost, resilience, and geopolitical risks, accelerating the shift towards regionalization and diversification of supply chain layouts [3][5] - The momentum for manufacturing return to the U.S. is expected to significantly slow down in 2024, highlighting constraints in capacity and labor, prompting companies to reassess the roles of nearshoring and low-cost Asian regions in their global manufacturing networks [5] Group 3: Strategic Execution and Upgrades - Many enterprises have clarified their strategic directions, yet they struggle to effectively translate these into organizational, process, and capability frameworks, resulting in challenges in executing strategies consistently [10][12] - The global supply chain is shifting from a focus on efficiency and cost to a balanced emphasis on resilience, efficiency, and sustainability, necessitating a comprehensive upgrade across strategic models, operational systems, and support mechanisms [12][13] Group 4: Revenue Growth Management - Revenue Growth Management (RGM) has evolved into a core strategic tool at the CEO and board levels, essential for fulfilling profit commitments and boosting shareholder confidence, with a focus on scaling RGM capabilities through organizational and AI empowerment [16]
2025年科尔尼行业系列回顾|医疗与大健康
科尔尼管理咨询· 2025-12-22 09:54
Group 1 - The global healthcare industry is entering a structural reshaping period by 2025, driven by technological breakthroughs, payment reforms, and digitalization, shifting focus from scale expansion to value creation and precision medicine [1] - The Chinese market is experiencing growth driven by healthcare insurance reforms and health consumption upgrades, while globally, companies face innovation pressures and capital constraints, necessitating clearer strategic focus to navigate uncertainties [1] - The rapid rise of GLP-1 drugs is reshaping the global healthcare industry, significantly reducing the risk of various chronic diseases but also causing structural anxiety among healthcare providers due to anticipated declines in clinical service demand, impacting industry profit models [2] Group 2 - The radioactive drug industry is emerging as a new "golden track" following ADC and GLP-1, showing breakthrough potential in precision diagnosis and treatment of major diseases, with the Chinese market poised for rapid expansion driven by substantial patient demand [6] - Post-COVID, health anxiety persists, with new technologies and products encouraging consumers to shift from passive treatment to proactive health management, creating new growth logic and innovation space for the healthcare industry in China [8] - Pharmaceutical companies are transitioning from a product-centric growth model to providing systematic solutions, integrating the entire value chain and fostering collaborative innovation to redefine their roles and growth logic within the healthcare system [12] Group 3 - Cardiovascular diseases represent a core long-term pressure on healthcare systems in China and globally, with a large patient base that continues to grow with population aging, necessitating enhanced prevention, diagnosis, and long-term management capabilities [13] - The Chinese healthcare industry is entering a new phase of high-quality, full-chain development driven by consumption upgrades and population aging, with the medical service market expected to reach 10 trillion yuan by 2030, becoming a significant growth engine for the Chinese economy [17] - Hospitals are accelerating digitalization and AI applications to enhance operational resilience and patient experience, with those that can flexibly restructure processes around patient needs likely to gain competitive advantages in the new growth cycle [18] Group 4 - The healthcare industry is transitioning from standardized medication to highly personalized treatment, with cell and gene therapy (CGT) emerging as a core innovation force, necessitating systemic restructuring around distribution, payment, and delivery models [22] - There is a significant gap in medical research focused on women's health, with only 7% of studies addressing women's diseases, highlighting the need to bridge this systemic disparity to unlock substantial social and economic value [23] - Many consumers understand the importance of health but struggle with daily life challenges that hinder healthy choices, indicating that true health consumption opportunities lie in designing products and services that seamlessly integrate healthy choices into everyday life [26] Group 5 - In a challenging environment marked by profit pressures, R&D uncertainties, and intensified competition, biopharmaceutical companies must focus on a few decisive issues to avoid strategic blind spots and maintain long-term performance [27] - The integration of artificial intelligence and value-based healthcare has the potential to transform the healthcare industry, overcoming fragmentation and driving systemic upgrades focused on outcomes [31] - The next wave of innovation in immunotherapy is shifting from single blockbuster drugs to multi-mechanism, cross-indication advancements, with future growth relying on breakthroughs in new targets and the redefinition of efficacy standards [32]
现代建筑方法(MMC)如何重塑全球建筑业的效率、可持续性与韧性
科尔尼管理咨询· 2025-12-19 09:40
Core Viewpoint - The global capital projects are expected to exceed $40 trillion in the next decade, with over $15 trillion in real estate, highlighting an urgent demand for efficient, scalable, and sustainable building solutions [1] Group 1: Importance of Modern Methods of Construction (MMC) - MMC has the potential to transform traditional construction by shifting from on-site building to off-site manufacturing and assembly, utilizing technologies like modular construction and 3D printing [3][5] - The adoption of MMC can significantly improve sustainability by reducing waste and utilizing eco-friendly materials, as well as lowering carbon footprints through localized production [7][8] - MMC can accelerate project timelines by 20% to 50% and reduce costs by up to 20%, as demonstrated by various projects like InnoCell and Neom [8][9] Group 2: Benefits of MMC - Sustainability: MMC can reduce the construction industry's environmental impact, which accounts for 40% of global carbon emissions, by using advanced materials and minimizing waste [7] - Efficiency: Projects utilizing MMC can see construction timelines shortened significantly, as evidenced by the Clement Canopy project in Singapore, which reduced traditional building time by 40% [9] - Safety: The controlled environment of off-site construction reduces the risk of accidents and injuries, enhanced by digital monitoring technologies [10] - Advanced Planning: Digital tools like Building Information Modeling (BIM) improve project efficiency and reduce design errors [11] - Skill Shortage Mitigation: MMC can alleviate the pressure of current skill shortages by shifting work to factories, potentially reducing the need for full-time employees by up to 50% [12] - Localization: MMC supports local workforce development and reduces reliance on foreign labor, fostering economic growth [13] Group 3: Challenges Facing MMC - High initial investment costs for establishing manufacturing facilities and supply chains can pose financial barriers despite long-term savings potential [15] - The construction industry's traditional resistance to innovation and regulatory hurdles can impede the adoption of MMC [15] Group 4: Strategic Approach to MMC - Identifying the most suitable MMC technologies based on project requirements is crucial for successful implementation [18] - Collaborating with optimal suppliers and building a robust ecosystem of partners can enhance quality and reduce costs [19][20] - Conducting concept validation through pilot projects can demonstrate the feasibility and benefits of selected MMC methods before full-scale implementation [24] - Continuous monitoring and optimization during the implementation phase are essential for long-term success in adopting MMC [25]
CBAM 重塑竞争规则,欧盟钢铁进口商的成本管控与供应链重构策略
科尔尼管理咨询· 2025-12-17 09:38
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by the EU to address carbon leakage and its implications for steel importers, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments in procurement and production methods to mitigate potential cost impacts [1][9]. Group 1: CBAM Implementation and Challenges - The CBAM was introduced to combat carbon leakage by imposing carbon pricing on imports linked to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) [1]. - The mechanism will be implemented in two phases: a transitional phase from October 2023 to December 2025, where reporting is required but no taxes are imposed, followed by a full implementation phase starting January 2026 [1]. - During the transitional phase, challenges have emerged, particularly for small importers, leading to the introduction of a minimum threshold of 50 tons to exempt approximately 90% of importers from detailed reporting requirements [1]. Group 2: EU Steel Import Dependency - The EU is the largest importer of semi-finished and finished steel, accounting for 35% of global steel imports, with dependency on imports rising from 17% in 2020 to an expected 21% in 2024 [4]. - Steel import volumes are projected to grow at an annual rate of approximately 0.63% from 2026 to 2030 [4]. Group 3: Impact of CBAM on Steel Importers - CBAM is forcing EU steel importers to reassess their procurement strategies and the production technologies used by suppliers to manage cost impacts [6]. - The top ten countries supplying steel to the EU account for 69% of total imports, with China, Turkey, Russia, and India contributing over 60% [6]. - The two main production pathways for steel are the Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) and Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) methods, with EAF having significantly lower CO2 emissions [6]. Group 4: Expected Cost Implications of CBAM - Although the fixed carbon price for 2026 has not been announced, it is expected to be linked to the EU ETS carbon price, projected to rise to €85 per ton in 2026 and drop to €65 in 2027 due to potential oversupply [10]. - The implementation of CBAM could lead to an additional carbon tax of €2.21 billion to €2.7 billion for EU steel imports in 2026, with BF-BOF steel imports contributing the majority of this cost [12]. Group 5: Strategies for Mitigating Financial Impact - EU steel importers need to act quickly to mitigate potential cost impacts from CBAM by evaluating the specific effects on their supply chains and the maturity of suppliers' emissions reporting [14]. - Short-term strategies include close communication with suppliers to encourage cleaner steel production and incorporating carbon metrics into procurement processes [14]. - Long-term strategies may involve reconfiguring supply chains to prioritize regions with lower carbon production methods, potentially reducing CBAM-related costs significantly [14]. Group 6: Global Exporters' Response - Global exporters supplying the EU are also taking measures to decarbonize their production methods to remain competitive, with initiatives in countries like India and China aimed at improving energy efficiency and reducing emissions [17][18]. Group 7: Opportunities During the Transition Period - The transition period provided by CBAM offers time for proactive supplier collaboration, investment in cleaner production, and integrating carbon considerations into procurement decisions, which can help manage financial risks [20].
2025年全球CEO最关心的十大战略议题
科尔尼管理咨询· 2025-12-15 03:51
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the need for businesses to adapt to a rapidly changing global environment characterized by geopolitical tensions, economic fragmentation, and technological advancements [2][4][41] Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Trends - The decline of the liberal international order is accelerating, leading to increased geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation [8][9] - Businesses must navigate a more fragmented global market with diverse regulatory and compliance risks [10][12] - The weakening of multilateral cooperation in areas like climate governance and public health increases uncertainty for cross-border operations [10][12] Group 2: Strategic Responses for Businesses - Companies are encouraged to adopt strategic hedging by diversifying supply chains and partnerships across geopolitical regions to mitigate risks [10][12] - There is a growing expectation for businesses to take on more social responsibility, particularly in education and community integration [13][18] - Firms should enhance their operational resilience by optimizing supply chain structures and integrating advanced technologies [28][30] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence is driving transformative changes across various sectors, necessitating a new understanding of its implications [31][36] - Companies must focus on building AI-ready talent and leveraging data as a competitive advantage [36][39] Group 4: Resource Management and Sustainability - The strategic importance of critical minerals is rising, with companies needing to ensure resource security through long-term contracts and geopolitical due diligence [34][35] - Businesses should prioritize sustainability and ethical compliance in their supply chain practices to mitigate reputational risks [35][42] Group 5: Future Outlook - The global economic landscape is shifting towards a more multipolar currency system, requiring businesses to diversify their currency exposure [26][27] - Companies must proactively define their development goals and establish sustainable operational pathways to thrive amid uncertainty [23][41]
血液肿瘤的15年经验,将如何改写自身免疫产业的竞争版图?
科尔尼管理咨询· 2025-12-12 09:55
Core Insights - The field of autoimmune diseases is rapidly evolving, with a competitive research pipeline reshaping market dynamics, drawing parallels from the advancements in hematologic oncology [1][2] - The significant breakthroughs in hematologic oncology over the past 15 years have led to unprecedented treatment options, which can serve as a model for the development of autoimmune therapies [1][4] Group 1: Treatment Innovations - The rapid expansion of diverse targets such as checkpoint inhibitors (e.g., PD-1), cell therapies (e.g., CD19, CD20), and targeted therapies (e.g., BTK, Bcl2) has provided multiple treatment options in hematologic oncology, emphasizing the need for biomarker-driven patient stratification [3] - The past decade has seen the introduction of several groundbreaking drugs in hematologic oncology, with a similar pace of innovation expected in the immunology field [8] - Multi-indication products like Bcl2 inhibitors and BTK inhibitors have significantly improved treatment outcomes in lymphoid cancers, showcasing the potential for similar advancements in autoimmune diseases [10] Group 2: Patient Outcomes and Quality of Life - The introduction of 15 new therapies from 2003 to 2021 has increased the five-year survival rate for multiple myeloma patients in the U.S. from 29% in the 1990s to 62% in 2021, highlighting the impact of modern treatments on patient outcomes [10] - In the realm of severe asthma, the introduction of biologics has led to a significant reduction in mortality rates, demonstrating the potential for improved patient outcomes in autoimmune diseases [12][13] Group 3: Strategic Insights for the Industry - The evolution of treatment strategies in hematologic oncology, from broad disease control to curative approaches, provides a blueprint for the next phase of autoimmune disease development [14][16] - The industry must learn from the successes and challenges faced in hematologic oncology to navigate the rapidly changing healthcare landscape for autoimmune diseases [18] - Key differences between autoimmune diseases and hematologic cancers include the chronic nature of autoimmune diseases, which require long-term management rather than immediate intervention, and the larger patient population affected [18] Group 4: Future Directions - The future of autoimmune disease treatment is likely to be driven by combination strategies, biomarker-based precision medicine, and sequential approaches rather than solely relying on single-agent efficacy [20] - The current technological environment, including AI-driven drug discovery and real-world evidence integration, presents new opportunities for accelerating innovation and improving patient outcomes [22]
收入增长管理 (RGM):企业兑现盈利承诺、提振股东信心的“硬通货”
科尔尼管理咨询· 2025-12-10 09:34
Core Insights - Revenue Growth Management (RGM) has evolved from a debated concept to a strategic priority for boards, with over half of the top 20 global consumer goods companies identifying RGM as central to pricing power, profit protection, and high-quality growth [1][3] - RGM is now a key agenda for CEOs, serving as both a short-term performance booster and a long-term value creator for shareholders [1] Group 1: Organizational Focus and Implementation - Companies are shifting their focus from whether to establish RGM capabilities to how to scale these capabilities through appropriate organizational structures, resource allocation, and empowerment mechanisms [3] - Many companies are building suitable organizational frameworks and resource allocations to support RGM, ensuring close collaboration between RGM functions and profit & loss (P&L) leaders [3][4] - Despite 67% of CEOs recognizing RGM as a key enabler of financial performance, only one-third of RGM leaders feel their teams are equipped to realize their full potential [3][4] Group 2: Competitive Advantages of Leading Companies - Leading companies derive their RGM competitive advantage from three key initiatives: granting RGM strategic decision-making authority, integrating RGM closely with business operations, and ensuring team configurations align with growth decision-makers [7][9] - 71% of RGM leaders are at the same level or just below P&L leaders globally, with this figure rising to 88% at the local market level, indicating a close reporting relationship that transforms RGM into a co-creator of growth strategies [7][9] - Over half of RGM leaders report directly to business profit centers rather than traditional cost centers, allowing for a focus on growth and profit effectiveness [9] Group 3: Scaling RGM Capabilities - Companies in a "fully empowered" state typically invest systematically and at scale in RGM, with leading firms averaging 5.9 full-time equivalents (FTEs) per 1,000 employees, compared to 2.6 FTEs in partially empowered firms [10][12] - Leading companies emphasize scalability in their RGM team structures, with less than half of personnel located in local markets, allowing for centralized expertise and resource flexibility [12] - RGM functions are increasingly involved in upstream decision-making processes, ensuring pricing, promotional mechanisms, and product management are integrated into overall strategic design from the outset [13][16] Group 4: Technology and Data Integration - The application of technology and AI in RGM is rapidly advancing, with most companies recognizing the need for smarter, data-driven growth execution [18][20] - Approximately 10% of companies have implemented systematic, scalable RGM solutions across multiple markets, indicating early-stage deployment of AI-driven tools [18][20] - Key actions for scaling AI applications include establishing standardized RGM process blueprints and creating a single source of truth for data governance [21][22] Group 5: Challenges to RGM Scaling - Significant challenges to RGM scaling include disparities in technology and data capabilities, with half of RGM professionals identifying these as major bottlenecks [26] - Many teams possess the analytical skills for RGM but lack systematic mechanisms to translate insights into actions, with only 14% of companies achieving scalable RGM capability development [27] - Resource capacity is a primary constraint for leading companies, with 83% identifying it as a top barrier to scaling RGM efforts [29] Group 6: Future Directions for RGM - RGM's role is transitioning from a downstream execution function to an upstream value co-creator, necessitating deeper integration into tactical sales and operations planning [16][34] - The next critical step is institutionalizing RGM capabilities within organizational workflows and core decision-making processes to drive sustained business outcomes [34][36] - Companies are encouraged to leverage RGM as an operational system for profit growth, transforming specialized knowledge into institutional capabilities [34][36]
免疫疗法的下一波创新浪潮:全球技术趋势与行业展望
科尔尼管理咨询· 2025-12-09 03:59
Core Insights - The article discusses the trends in the development of autoimmune disease treatments, highlighting the significant growth in the global autoimmune drug market, which reached $156 billion in 2023 with a compound annual growth rate of 15% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The success of TNFα inhibitors and the emergence of IL inhibitors have marked a new era in treatment innovation [1]. - Leading products like Humira and Stelara are facing competition from biosimilars, while others like Dupixent and Skyrizi have set high efficacy standards in their respective indications [1][3]. - The market is expected to continue growing over the next three to five years, driven by the launch of JAK inhibitors and IL inhibitors across multiple disease areas [1][3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Nine companies have six or more marketed products and pipeline drugs, indicating intense competition for leadership in the immunology field [3][4]. - The market is currently dominated by multi-indication blockbuster drugs, with significant ongoing clinical trials aimed at expanding indications for existing products [9][10]. Group 3: Innovation and Development Trends - Companies are increasingly focusing on new molecular entities (NMEs) and innovative treatment strategies, with 70% of pipelines dedicated to novel drug development [9][13]. - The emergence of Chinese pharmaceutical and biotech companies is notable, with firms like 3SBio and Jiangsu Hengrui actively researching innovative targets and NMEs [13][16]. - The industry is shifting towards more precise therapies, progressive innovations, and complex combination dynamics, with a focus on improving patient adherence and treatment convenience [18][23]. Group 4: Future Directions - The article emphasizes the importance of biomarker-driven patient stratification and the expansion of multi-indication models as foundational strategies in autoimmune drug development [21][22]. - The trend of "test and learn" is gaining traction, leading to increased trial activities in rare indications [21][23]. - The industry is also moving towards combination therapies and innovative drug delivery methods, such as oral formulations, to enhance patient convenience and treatment outcomes [24].