Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Anta Sports Products with a 12-month price target of HK$117, indicating an upside potential of 24.1% from the current price of HK$94.25 [14][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for Anta Group, supported by solid year-to-date trading performance and effective execution across its brand portfolio. The completion of the Jack Wolfskin acquisition is noted, although its impact on forecasts has not yet been incorporated [7][14]. - The management's focus on Fila's reform under the new CEO aims for sustainable growth rather than immediate margin improvements, with specific strategies including enhanced product functionality and targeted marketing efforts [9][10]. - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming 618 shopping festival, with expectations of increased online sales and a healthy inventory level across most brands, although discounts are anticipated due to a higher online sales mix [7][11]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - May online sales benefited from the early start of the 618 shopping festival, while offline sales faced challenges due to unfavorable weather conditions. The company expects to see more discounts leading into the festival [7][11]. Brand Performance - Anta brand's performance aligns with expectations, with new initiatives showing promise. The running category remains strong, accounting for over 40% of footwear volume, while basketball performance is still challenging [11]. Margin Outlook - The report indicates that the operating profit margin (OPM) for Anta and Fila brands is expected to remain relatively flat, with Descente's margin at approximately 30%. There is room for improvement for Kolon and MAIA brands [10][11]. Fila Reform - Fila's new CEO is committed to a mid-single-digit percentage growth target by 2025, focusing on product refinement and marketing strategies to enhance brand positioning [9][10]. Jack Wolfskin and Future M&A - The management anticipates that the Jack Wolfskin acquisition will have a limited impact in the first half of 2025 but will be margin-dilutive for the full year. Future M&A opportunities are identified in brands specializing in female products and premium running [12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of HK$33.50, representing an upside of 34.0% from the current price of HK$25.00 [9]. Core Insights - China Resources Beer (CRB) has shown continued solid performance in May, driven primarily by Heineken, which sustained over 20% year-on-year volume growth [6][7]. - The overall operating run-rate for CRB's beer volume growth in May was above the volume growth of SD% in 1Q25, with a mild increase in blended average selling price (ASP) and positive margin profiles [6][10]. - Management noted a healthy channel inventory maintained at largely one month of sales, with positive volume growth across mass-market to premium segments [6][10]. Summary by Sections Volume Growth and Performance - CRB's beer volume growth in May trended similarly to April, exceeding the volume growth of SD% in 1Q25 [6]. - Heineken remains the key volume driver, achieving over 20% year-on-year growth in May [7]. - Pure Draft experienced a narrower volume decline year-on-year in May compared to April and 1Q25, while SuperX maintained high single-digit to double-digit growth [7]. Channel and Regional Insights - Management observed a mild recovery in catering channels, particularly in hot pot, BBQ, and trendy restaurants, while nightlife channels remained muted [6][10]. - Performance in East and South China was noted as on track, with slightly better on-trade volume growth in these regions [10]. Instant Delivery and Online Channels - CRB is experiencing strong growth in instant delivery platforms, with growth rates ranging from double-digit to triple-digit percentages from a small base [10]. - Online channels, including instant delivery, currently account for low single-digit to mid-single-digit percentages of total volume, with management indicating that operating profit margins for these businesses are not significantly lower than traditional channels [10].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Keysight Technologies (KEYS) based on improved order trends and revenue guidance [6][7]. Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reported in-line quarterly results with revenue of $2.29 billion, slightly above consensus expectations of $2.28 billion, and guided for FQ4 revenue between $2.49 billion and $2.51 billion, indicating a growth of 19-20% for FY RPO [3][4]. - Baidu (BIDU) exceeded expectations with Q1 revenue of CNY 32.45 billion, driven by a 42% year-over-year growth in its AI Cloud business, leading to a 2.5% increase in stock price [5][6]. - Keysight Technologies (KEYS) reported a revenue of $1.31 billion, 2% above market expectations, and guided for FY25 revenue growth of approximately 6% year-over-year, reflecting an acceleration in order growth [6][7]. - Wolfspeed (WOLF) shares plummeted 60% following reports of the company preparing for bankruptcy, indicating significant distress in the semiconductor sector [8]. - Google (GOOGL) showcased innovations in AI during its I/O keynote, emphasizing its commitment to integrating AI capabilities across its product suite, which may enhance its competitive position in the search market [9][11]. Summary by Sections Market Insights - Futures are pulling back with NDX/SPX down 65 basis points as higher yields impact risk appetite, with US 10-year yields at 4.53% and 30-year yields at 5.02% [1][2]. - The report highlights a surge in short interest, indicating a shift in market sentiment and potential investment strategies [12][14]. Company Performance - PANW's stock fell 3.5% post-earnings despite meeting expectations, while BIDU's stock rose 2.5% on strong Q1 results [3][4][5]. - KEYS experienced a 5% increase in stock price due to positive order trends and revenue guidance [6][7]. - WOLF's stock saw a drastic decline of 60% amid bankruptcy preparations, reflecting severe challenges in the semiconductor industry [8]. Hedge Fund Trends - Hedge funds have maintained a positive return of +1% YTD, with a notable increase in short positions across ETFs and single stocks, indicating a strategic shift in investment approaches [12][32]. - The average large-cap mutual fund has outperformed benchmarks, with 50% exceeding their targets, reflecting strong relative performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties [19][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the MedTech sector, reiterating Buy ratings on several companies including Boston Scientific (BSX), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) [6][10]. Core Insights - The MedTech industry is experiencing strong operating fundamentals with organic sales growth averaging 6.7% in Q1 2025, an acceleration from 7.2% in Q4 2024 [3][22]. - Profitability has improved across the sector, although there are expectations of greater pressure on margins due to macroeconomic challenges and tariffs [3][25]. - The report highlights a widening gap in valuation and top-line growth among companies, with Boston Scientific's NTM P/E multiple expanding from 64% to 123% since December 2022 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report discusses various events and management meetings that have shaped the outlook for the MedTech sector, including investor trips and conferences [3]. - It notes that the policy environment appears favorable for MedTech, with potential tariff relief and tax reform benefits [6]. Company Performance - Organic sales growth varied across companies, with those in high-growth categories like Robotics and Diabetes showing strength, while others faced challenges due to exposure to China and macroeconomic headwinds [3][18]. - Six companies have raised their full-year 2025 guidance, indicating a more balanced outlook for the second half of the year [22]. Financial Metrics - The report indicates that the average gross margin for large-cap MedTech companies was 60.2% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase [25]. - Operating margins expanded by 120 basis points year-over-year, supported by moderating inflation and favorable product mix [25][29]. Growth Projections - The report anticipates that organic growth will be driven by product cycles and innovation, with demographic factors and hospital financial conditions remaining healthy [18][40]. - Companies like Abbott and Boston Scientific are expected to sustain organic growth rates of at least 10% through 2027, despite some deceleration anticipated in the near term [9][10]. Tariff Implications - The report discusses the potential impacts of tariffs, particularly related to China, and suggests that tariff relief could provide upside to earnings forecasts [31][32]. - It highlights that the anticipated impacts from tariffs remain dynamic, with expectations of lower rates potentially benefiting companies like GE Healthcare [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for MongoDB (MDB) and Accenture (ACN) based on their growth potential and market positioning [9][12][13]. Core Insights - MongoDB has shown a re-acceleration in its Atlas business, with a 17% pre-market increase following a 25% raise in full-year operating income expectations, although still below previous quarter levels [5][8]. - Investor sentiment around MongoDB has declined in recent quarters, with ongoing debates about its ability to transition to a Generative AI stack [6][9]. - Accenture faces bearish sentiment ahead of its earnings report, with short interest rising significantly, but bulls point to a supportive backlog and favorable valuation metrics [12][13]. Summary by Sections MongoDB (MDB) - MDB's stock has seen a 17% increase in pre-market trading due to positive expectations around its Atlas business, marking the first re-acceleration in years [5]. - The company is experiencing mixed execution and a debate on its positioning in an AI-first world, with discussions focusing on its transition from Cloud/Mobile to Generative AI [6][9]. - The report highlights a significant uptick in customer net additions, marking the largest quarter-over-quarter gain in six years, indicating positive momentum [7][8]. Accenture (ACN) - Accenture is under scrutiny with increased short interest, reflecting concerns over macroeconomic factors and competition in the AI space [12]. - The report anticipates that if Accenture reports better-than-expected revenue results, it could stabilize its stock price [13]. - Key focus areas for Accenture include guidance for Q4 FY25, bookings growth, and the impact of government IT spending on its revenue [15].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [3]. Core Insights - The global real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.4% year-on-year in 2025, influenced by higher US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty [4][5]. - In the US, real GDP growth is projected to be 1.0% in 2025, with a 35% probability of entering a recession within the next 12 months [4]. - The Euro area is anticipated to see a real GDP growth of 0.9% year-on-year in 2025, affected by elevated trade policy uncertainty [4]. - China is expected to achieve a real GDP growth of 4.6% year-on-year in 2025, despite ongoing challenges in the property market [5]. Economic Forecasts - The LME aluminum price forecast for 2025 has been raised to $2,400 per metric ton, while the 2026 forecast has been lowered to $2,230 per metric ton [1]. - Core inflation in the US is expected to rise to 3.6% year-on-year by the end of 2025, driven by higher tariffs [4]. - The unemployment rate in the US is projected to increase to 4.5% by the end of 2025 [4]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to implement a series of rate cuts, reaching a policy rate of 1.75% by July 2025 [4]. Regional Insights - In the US, consumer spending and business investment are anticipated to be negatively impacted by elevated policy uncertainty and rising tariffs [4]. - The Euro area is expected to experience a cooling in services inflation, contributing to a decline in core inflation to 2.1% by the end of 2025 [4]. - In China, inflation is projected to remain very low, with CPI inflation expected to end the year at 0% and PPI inflation at -2.1% [5].

4 June 2025 | 5:01AM BST Strategy Espresso: Section 899 and European Equities: Navigating Risks, Unlocking Flows The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" extends the 2017 tax cuts and introduces new tax and spending measures. While US equity markets may benefit in the short term — particularly from CAPEX and R&D — one of the most consequential provisions for global investors is Section 899. Section 899 introduces retaliatory tax measures against non-US individuals, corporations, and governments from countries that ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest net change in the fiscal balance due to the reconciliation package, with an estimated $275 billion addition to the deficit next year, suggesting a cautious investment outlook [3][4]. Core Insights - The reconciliation bill, titled the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," is expected to create a fiscal expansion of roughly $4 trillion relative to current law, but the net impact on corporate earnings is estimated to be about 5% for S&P 500 in 2026, diminishing in subsequent years [3][4]. - The corporate provisions in the bill will primarily shift the timing of tax payments rather than permanently lower tax rates, impacting cash flows more than GAAP net income [4][9]. - The potential changes to business expensing will significantly affect capex-intensive companies and those with high interest expenses, particularly in the small-cap sector [9][32]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Impact - The reconciliation package is expected to have a modest direct impact on S&P 500 earnings and cash flows, with a collective effect of approximately 5% on earnings in 2026 [4][5]. - The bill's provisions, including capex and R&D expensing, interest deductibility, and foreign income treatment, will contribute to GDP growth, further lifting S&P 500 earnings by about 1% [4][31]. Market Reactions - Few sectors have shown a strong correlation with fiscal policy expectations, although renewable energy stocks have reacted to legislative developments [2][20]. - The report highlights that stocks with elevated interest expenses and low effective tax rates may face scrutiny as Congress negotiates the legislative package [30][43]. Sector-Specific Insights - The legislation's impact on interest deductibility will have a larger effect on small-cap stocks compared to large-cap stocks, with 34% of Russell 2000 companies having interest expenses exceeding 30% of EBIT [9][14]. - Consumer-facing stocks may benefit from the fiscal package, with expected boosts to consumer spending adding about 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in 2026 [31][32]. Valuation Considerations - The reconciliation bill could influence equity valuations if it leads to upward pressure on interest rates, with historical data indicating stocks typically react poorly to rapid increases in yields [34][42]. - A potential increase in the 10-year Treasury yield toward 5% could catalyze additional equity volatility, impacting investor sentiment [34][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for integrated players such as SF Holding, JD Logistics (JDL), and the leader ZTO, while adopting a "Neutral" rating for others like STO, Yunda, and J&T, and a "Sell" rating for YTO and Sinotrans-A/H [7][21]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector in China is experiencing intense price competition, leading to a decline in average selling prices (ASPs) and profitability across franchise-based players, while integrated logistics providers show resilience [1][21]. - The report revises the expected industry volume growth for 2025E from 18% to 20% year-on-year, driven by a shift towards lightweight and small parcels, and the growth of emerging eCommerce platforms [2][21]. - The report highlights that the competitive landscape will depend on strategic adjustments by incumbents and potential policy interventions to stabilize pricing [1][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The express delivery sector concluded 1Q25 with a 22% year-on-year volume growth but faced a 6-10% decline in ASPs across major players [21][22]. - The ongoing price competition is attributed to a trade-down trend in eCommerce goods and the need for express players to maintain capacity utilization [22][23]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that the group operating profit for Tongda players is expected to decline by approximately 12% year-on-year in 2025E, with SF being the only player projected to see double-digit profit growth [6][7]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for franchise-based players are revised downwards by 9% to 19% below Bloomberg consensus [7][21]. Company-Specific Insights - SF Holding is noted for its strong performance, with a 20% year-on-year EBIT growth in 1Q25, benefiting from cost optimization and a diversified revenue stream [1][40]. - ZTO is highlighted as the only Buy-rated franchise-based express delivery name, expected to stabilize its market share despite near-term earnings weakness [7][21]. - Yunda and YTO are projected to experience low-to-mid teens year-on-year profit declines, while STO and J&T China are expected to see flat earnings [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The report anticipates continued competition in 2Q-3Q25, with potential for strategic adjustments or industry consolidation to mitigate pricing pressures [1][21]. - The ASP for express delivery services is forecasted to decline by 6% to 8% across major players in 2Q25E, reflecting a slightly easier base compared to 1Q [22][23]. Volume and Revenue Estimates - The report raises the industry volume estimate for 2025E to 20% year-on-year, factoring in strong growth momentum and a shift in parcel mix [2][21]. - Revenue estimates for ZTO are cut by 6% due to less-than-expected impacts from gross revenue bookings, while Yunda and YTO see slight revenue increases [2][6]. Valuation - The report continues to value China express delivery companies based on a 1-year forward EV/EBITDA multiple, which remains unchanged at an average of 7X [13][15].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a modest impact on corporate earnings and cash flows from the budget reconciliation bill, estimating a boost of around 5% for the S&P 500 in the next year [1][2]. Core Insights - The budget reconciliation bill is expected to have only a modest effect on the US fiscal balance and corporate earnings, with potential earnings boosts diminishing in subsequent years [1][2]. - The ECB is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points, with growth forecasts remaining unchanged at 0.9% for this year and a slight decline for next year [11]. - The report highlights the potential for renewed interest in European equities due to the Section 899 provision of the reconciliation bill, which may create uncertainty for US investments [2][5]. Fiscal Policy Focus - The budget reconciliation bill is projected to have limited effects on migration and economic activity, particularly for high-earning households [5]. - Fiscal policy in China is expected to support growth, with an estimated boost of 1.1 percentage points to real GDP growth this year [6]. ECB Projections - The ECB's growth forecast for this year is expected to remain at 0.9%, with a slight decline in next year's forecast [11]. - Inflation projections are likely to be downgraded, with headline and core inflation expected to decline to 1.7% and 1.8% respectively for next year [11]. US Jobs Report - The report estimates a below-consensus increase of 110,000 in nonfarm payrolls for May, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2% [16]. - Average hourly earnings are forecasted to increase by 0.3% month-over-month [16]. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs - The doubling of US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% is expected to negatively impact US steel demand from the manufacturing sector [16]. - There is a potential risk of tariffs being imposed on copper imports, which is currently underpriced in the market [16].