Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported an improvement in profitability in Q1, with ongoing expansion in resource capacity [1] - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 13.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 208% [1] - The main reasons for the profitability improvement include a shortened pricing cycle for lithium ore and the resolution of tax disputes impacting net profit [1] - The company is expanding its resource capacity, with planned lithium chemical product capacity exceeding 120,000 tons [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.768 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27, 15, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 13.063 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 67.7% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -7.905 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 208.3% [5] - The gross margin is expected to be 46.1% in 2024, improving to 50.2% by 2027 [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to recover from -18.9% in 2024 to 9.9% in 2027 [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to turn positive, reaching 3.14 yuan by 2027 [5]

[Table_StockNameRptType] 中化国际（600500） 公司点评 减值拖累 2024 全年业绩，25Q1 经营减亏 | 投资评级：增持（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-05-08 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 3.69 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 4.82/3.38 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3,589 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3,587 | | 流通股比例（%） | 99.95 | | 总市值（亿元） | 132 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 132 | [Table_Chart] 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 -40% -20% 0% 20% 5/7 7/7 9/7 11/7 1/7 3/7 5/7 中化国际 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 事件二：公司同日发布 2025 年一季报，实现营收 108.03 亿元，同比 -7.01%，环比-19.59%；归母净利-3.96 亿元，同比-38.64%，环比 +82.92%；扣非净利润-4 ...

天齐锂业（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 002466） 公司点评 一季度盈利改善，资源端持续扩张 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 业绩 ⚫ 风险提示 新建产能不及预期；下游需求不及预期；新技术出现；不可控的全球地 缘风险。 | ⚫[Tab重要财务指标 le_Profit] | | | | 单位:百万元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要财务指标 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入 | 13063 | 15788 | 20900 | 27426 | | 收入同比（%） | -67.7% | 20.9% | 32.4% | 31.2% | | 归属母公司净利润 | -7905 | 1768 | 3176 | 5150 | | 净利润同比（%） | -208.3% | 122.4% | 79.6% | 62.2% | | 毛利率（%） | 46.1% | 47.2% | 50.1% | 50.2% | | ROE（%） | -18.9% | 4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is advancing its high-end strategy, with profitability expected to improve in Q1 2025. The company reported a steady growth in performance, with 2024 revenue reaching 497 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.93%, and a net profit of 112 million yuan, a decrease of 27.79% [4][5] - The product structure is continuously optimized, with an increase in direct sales revenue proportion. In 2024, high-end products accounted for 24% of revenue, while in Q1 2025, this increased to 29%, reflecting the effectiveness of the high-end strategy [5] - The overall gross margin remains high, with 61.07% in 2024 and 61.80% in Q1 2025, driven by the rapid growth of high-end products. The net profit margin improved significantly in Q1 2025 to 30.87% [6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 497 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.93%. The net profit was 112 million yuan, down 27.79% [4][9] - The forecast for 2025-2027 projects revenues of 612 million yuan, 737 million yuan, and 879 million yuan respectively, with net profits of 145 million yuan, 183 million yuan, and 228 million yuan [7][9] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 0.91 yuan, 1.15 yuan, and 1.43 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 40, 32, and 25 [7][9]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: RL-TBN; **Model Construction Idea**: Combines reinforcement learning (RL) with text-based networks (TBN) to optimize covariance matrix shrinkage and global minimum variance (GMV) portfolio[2][3][19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Covariance Matrix Shrinkage**: The covariance matrix is decomposed into a diagonal matrix of volatilities and a correlation matrix. Shrinkage is applied to the correlation matrix using the formula: $ \widetilde{\mathbf{R}}_{t}=(1-\alpha)\widehat{\mathbf{R}}_{t}+\alpha\mathbf{\widetilde{R}}_{t} $ Here, $\alpha$ represents the shrinkage intensity, and $\mathbf{\widetilde{R}}_{t}$ is the shrinkage target[33][34]. 2. **Text-Based Networks (TBN)**: TBN is constructed by analyzing product descriptions in companies' 10-K filings. Unique nouns are extracted and vectorized, and cosine similarity is calculated to form the TBN matrix: $ B_{t}={\frac{M_{t}M_{t}^{\mathsf{T}}}{\|M_{t}\|_{F}^{2}}} $ where $M_{t}$ is the normalized matrix of product descriptions[37][38]. 3. **Reinforcement Learning (RL)**: RL optimizes shrinkage intensity $\alpha$ using the Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm. The reward function is based on exponential utility: $ r_{p,t+\frac{i}{252}}(\alpha_{t}(m))={\bf x}(\alpha_{t}(m))^{\sf T}{\bf Y}_{t+\frac{i}{252}} $ RL agents are trained using rolling windows to dynamically adjust shrinkage intensity[48][53][55]. - **Model Evaluation**: RL-TBN demonstrates adaptability to macroeconomic uncertainty and effectively reduces estimation errors, outperforming traditional methods in stability and risk-adjusted returns[5][19][80]. Model Backtesting Results - **RL-TBN**: - **Volatility**: 0.088 - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.351 - **VaR**: 0.129[4][79][80] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Text-Based Networks (TBN); **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures product similarity between companies using textual analysis of 10-K filings[19][37][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Extract unique nouns from product descriptions in 10-K filings, excluding common words and stop words. 2. Vectorize product descriptions into binary vectors and normalize them. 3. Calculate cosine similarity between vectors to form the TBN matrix[37][38]. - **Factor Evaluation**: TBN provides a fundamental perspective on stock correlations, capturing industry structure and reducing estimation variance[23][99][102]. Factor Backtesting Results - **TBN**: - **Volatility**: Lower than sample correlation matrices - **Frobenius Norm Stability**: Demonstrates reduced variance compared to traditional methods[101][119][120] Additional Insights - **Mechanism Analysis**: - TBN predicts future stock correlation changes, with higher product similarity leading to lower future correlations[25][104][108]. - RL dynamically adjusts shrinkage intensity based on macroeconomic indicators, such as investor sentiment and uncertainty[94][95][96]. - **Variance Reduction**: TBN-based RL strategies achieve superior performance by reducing variance, particularly in low-variance groups[118][124][125].

分析师:陈耀波 执业证书号：S0010523060001 邮箱: chenyaobo@hazq.com 分析师:李元晨 投资评级:买入(维持) 报告日期:2024-05-07 收盘价（元) 近 12个月最高/最低（元) | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） 41.60/22.45 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 932.82 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 921.00 | | 流通股比例 (%) | 98.73 | | 总市值(亿元) | 273.2 | | 流通市值 (亿元) | 269.8 | 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 景旺电子 (603228) 公司点评 景旺电子：拥抱 Al 新态势加码高端市场,研发持续投入巩固技术优势 70% 30% 1 0% -10% -30% 执业证书号: S0010524070001 邮箱:liyc@hazq.com 相关报告 1. 景旺电子:汽车和服务器 PCB 高速 成长,消费类中高端需求稳步提升 20241116 主要观点: ● 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年第一季度报告 2024 年，公司实现营业总收入 126.5 ...

景旺电子 (603228) 公司点评 景旺电子：拥抱 Al 新态势加码高端市场,研发持续投入巩固技术优势 投资评级:买入(维持) 报告日期:2024-05-07 | 收盘价(元) | 29.29 | | --- | --- | | 近 12个月最高/最低（元） 41.60/22.45 | | | 总股本(百万股) | 932.82 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 921.00 | | 流通股比例 (%) | 98.73 | | 总市值 (亿元) | 273.2 | | 流通市值 (亿元) | 269.8 | 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 70% 30% 1 0% -10% -30% 分析师:陈耀波 执业证书号：S0010523060001 邮箱: chenyaobo@hazq.com 分析师:李元晨 执业证书号: S0010524070001 邮箱:liyc@hazq.com 相关报告 1. 景旺电子:汽车和服务器 PCB 高速 成长,消费类中高端需求稳步提升 20241116 主要观点: 公司具备 100G-1.6T 高速光模块板、分级分段金手指制作、微通孔、 深微盲孔、微盲孔选镀填孔、子母多层板Ｚ向互 ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 金融工程 专题报告 5 月看好小盘成长风格 ——风格轮动月报 202505 [Table_Rpt 报告日期： Date] 2025-5-7 主要观点： 分析师：严佳炜 执业证书号：S0010520070001 邮箱：yanjw@hazq.com ⚫[Table_Summary] 观点回顾：4 月大小盘轮动超额-0.3%，价值成长轮动超额收益 0.2% 2025 年 4 月，风格轮动模型看多大盘成长风格。本月大小盘轮动组合 相对风格等权基准的超额收益为-0.3%；价值成长轮动组合相对风格等 权基准的超额收益为 0.2%。 联系人：吴正宇 执业证书号：S0010522090001 邮箱：wuzy@hazq.com ⚫ 最新观点：5 月建议配置小盘成长风格 5 月模型判断风格为小盘成长：其中，宏观经济和微观特征指向小盘风 格，而市场状态模型看好大盘。价值成长维度，各子模型均指向成长风 格。 ⚫ 风险提示 本报告基于历史个股数据进行测试，历史回测结果不代表未来收益。未 来市场风格可能切换，Alpha 因子可能失效，本文内容仅供参考。 [Table_CompanyRep ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Buy (maintained) [2][8] Core Views - The company is facing short-term pressure on performance in 2024, but is increasing R&D investment to build long-term advantages [2][6] - The company reported a revenue of 744 million yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.17% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 103 million yuan, down 54.68% year-on-year [6][9] - The company is focusing on the rehabilitation sector, which has significant long-term potential, while experiencing short-term profit pressure due to rising expense ratios [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - 2024 revenue: 744 million yuan (yoy -0.17%); net profit: 103 million yuan (yoy -54.68%); non-recurring net profit: 89.97 million yuan (yoy -55.90%) [6][11] - Q4 2024 revenue: 237 million yuan (yoy +16.74%); net profit: 29.53 million yuan (yoy -38.45%); non-recurring net profit: 25.54 million yuan (yoy -35.06%) [6][11] - Q1 2025 revenue: 186 million yuan (yoy +10.02%); net profit: 22.95 million yuan (yoy -41.26%); non-recurring net profit: 18.71 million yuan (yoy -48.72%) [6][11] Expense and Profitability Metrics - Sales expense ratio: 28.91% (yoy +6.10pct); management expense ratio: 8.10% (yoy +2.60pct); R&D expense ratio: 20.45% (yoy +6.12pct) [6][9] - Gross margin: 67.42%, down 1.20 pct year-on-year; net margin: 13.83%, down 16.82 pct year-on-year [6][9] R&D Investment and Future Outlook - R&D investment in 2024 was 152 million yuan, an increase of 42.41% year-on-year, accounting for 20.45% of total revenue [6][9] - The company has established multiple R&D centers and is focusing on advanced technologies such as brain-machine interfaces and rehabilitation robotics [7][9] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 848 million yuan, 972 million yuan, and 1.121 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14.1%, 14.6%, and 15.3% respectively [8][11] Earnings Per Share and Valuation - Expected EPS for 2025-2027: 0.94 yuan, 1.21 yuan, and 1.57 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 38x, 29x, and 23x [9][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure in 2024, but increased R&D investment is expected to build long-term advantages [2][6] - The company reported a revenue of 744 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 103 million yuan, down 54.68% year-on-year [6][9] - The company is focusing on the rehabilitation sector, which has significant long-term potential despite short-term profit pressures due to rising expense ratios [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 744 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -0.17% [6][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 103 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 54.68% [6][11] - The company’s gross margin was 67.42%, down 1.20 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 13.83%, down 16.82 percentage points year-on-year [6][11] - R&D expenses increased by 42.41% year-on-year to 152 million yuan, representing 20.45% of total revenue [6][11] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from rehabilitation therapy equipment was 504 million yuan, up 9.85% year-on-year [6][9] - Revenue from rehabilitation training equipment was 165 million yuan, down 19.89% year-on-year [6][9] - Revenue from rehabilitation assessment equipment was 27.62 million yuan, down 21.92% year-on-year [6][9] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 848 million yuan, 972 million yuan, and 1.121 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 14.1%, 14.6%, and 15.3% [8][11] - Net profit projections for the same years are 151 million yuan, 194 million yuan, and 251 million yuan, with growth rates of 46.5%, 28.8%, and 29.3% [8][11] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.94 yuan, 1.21 yuan, and 1.57 yuan, respectively [8][11]