- The report systematically reviews 80 new quantitative finance-related research papers in May 2025, covering areas such as equity research, fixed income, fund studies, asset allocation, machine learning applications, and ESG-related studies [1][2][3] - Equity research includes studies on fundamental factors, price-volume and alternative factors, factor research, active quantitative strategies, and other categories, exploring investor behavior biases, asset pricing models, market structure distortions, prediction model innovations, and corporate resilience mechanisms [2][10] - Fixed income research focuses on high-frequency inflation forecasting, sovereign risk premium decomposition, and stochastic interest rate model innovations, with findings such as weekly online inflation rates predicting yield curve slope factors and semi-Markov-modulated Hull-White/CIR models achieving semi-analytical pricing for zero-coupon bonds [22][23] - Fund studies investigate fund selection factors, fund style evaluation, and behavioral biases, revealing strategies like liquidity picking driving excess returns and public pension funds underperforming benchmarks due to alternative investment errors post-2008 [28][30] - Asset allocation research explores multi-asset portfolio management paradigm shifts, systematic currency management, and volatility connectedness constraints, demonstrating dynamic adaptation mechanisms and enhanced performance during crises [32][33][35] - Machine learning applications in finance include innovations in volatility forecasting, credit risk prediction using GraphSAGE models, and long-memory stochastic interval models, significantly improving prediction accuracy and economic value [36][38][40] - ESG-related studies analyze green innovation drivers, ESG evaluation distortions, and corporate environmental response strategies, highlighting mechanisms like family business constraints on green innovation and AI-driven manufacturing green transformation [42][43][45]

[T[able Table_IndNameRptType] _IndNameRptType] 2 固定收益 固收周报 [Table_IndNameRptType] 固定收益 北交所可转债市场拉开序幕 ——转债周记（6 月第 1 周） | | | 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 北交所可转债体系发展如何？ 近年来在相关政策推动下北交所可转债体系逐步完善，2023 年《中国证监会 关于高质量建设北交所的意见》明确 "推出公开发行可转债"， 2025 年 3 月《北京证券交易所发行上市审核动态 2025 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）》支持 上市公司通过定向发行可转债融资，北交所可转债体系不断完善。 ⚫ 北交所定向可转债有何特征？ （1）转股价格上，初始转股价格普遍高于市场均价，均为不低于前一个交易 日公司股票交易均价的 120%。（2）赎回条款触发赎回的股价条件较高，也较 为灵活。（3）有条件回售条款方面变化较小，回售触发股价为不低于当期转股 价格 50%-70%。 ⚫ 北交所定向可转债与上交所公募可转债有何区别？ 从发行评级上看，万通液压、威博液压和优机股份均不提供评级，与上交所可 转债天路转债的 ...

分析师：严佳炜 执业证书号：S0010520070001 邮箱：yanjw@hazq.com 主要观点： [Table_StockNameRptType] 金融工程 月报 "学海拾珠"系列之跟踪月报 202505 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期：2025-06-04 Table_Author] 分析师：骆昱杉 执业证书号：S0010522110001 邮箱：luoyushan@hazq.com 5. 《资产与因子风险预算：一种均衡 策略 ——"学海拾珠"系列之二百三 十二》 6. 《年报中的叙述式披露对公司价值 的多维度影响 ——"学海拾珠"系列 之二百三十一》 7. 《"知识"嵌入型深度强化学习在多 元资产配置中的应用 ——"学海拾 珠"系列之二百三十》 ⚫ "学海拾珠"系列文献数据库 我们建立了系统的学术文献追踪机制，持续关注 30 余本国际权威 金融与量化研究期刊及顶级学术会议。每月定期汇总整理这些平台最新 收录的量化相关研究成果，确保研究团队能够及时把握学术前沿动态。 [Table_Summary] 本月新增量化金融相关的研究文献共计 80 篇，研究领域分布如下：权 益类研究 31 篇、基金 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance showed lower-than-expected revenue and profit, with a significant increase in expense ratios [4][5] - The online marketing services revenue reached 48.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 1.5% [5] - The transaction services revenue was 46.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, falling short of Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 12.8% [5] - The company is facing challenges in its overseas business due to tariff policy changes affecting its Temu operations in the U.S. [5][6] - Domestic operations are under pressure from increased subsidy efforts, impacting profit margins [6] Financial Summary - For Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 95.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, but below Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 5.6% [4] - Non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 16.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.7%, also below consensus estimates by 38.3% [4] - The company expects revenues of 410.2 billion, 439.6 billion, and 509.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.2%, 7.2%, and 16.0% [7] - Adjusted net profits are projected to be 92.8 billion, 133.3 billion, and 158.4 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -24.2%, +43.6%, and +18.9% [7] - The company maintains a strong cash position, with cash and cash equivalents expected to reach 534.0 billion yuan by 2027 [11]

执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 债市"每调买机"情绪回归 ——债市情绪面周报（6 月第 1 周） 报告日期： 2025-06-03 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：6 月债市高胜率+低赔率的组合延续 当前 10Y 国债收益率在 1.65%至 1.70%附近持续震荡超一月，5 月利率 弱、信用强，存单在 1.70%附近震荡，短期债市多空交织。第一，在关税反复 扰动背景下，央行的主要目标由防空转、稳汇率切换至稳增长，双降以及一揽 子货币政策带动广谱利率下行，债牛环境不变；第二，但从短期来看，6 月资 金面易受扰动，存单大额到期+季末流动性冲击+供给高峰，在此背景下央行 对于资金面的话语权已经提升，我们预计一季度的情形大概率不会重演，资金 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 6 月信用的机会和风险都在长端 报告日期： 2025-06-03 [首席Table_Author] 分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com 分析师：杨佩霖 执业证书号：S0010523070002 电话：17861391391 邮箱：yangpl@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 信用大涨后，机会和风险怎么看？ 5 月信用债市场走出独立行情。具体来看，截至月末，1 年期至 5 年期各隐 含评级城投债的估值收益率多来到历史低位，近三年分位点均位于 5%及以 下的极低水平，与此同时，信用利差经过持续收窄同样触及低点，1 年期与 3 年期各评级近三年分位点都在 10%以下的低水平，当前仅剩 5 年期品种尚 存压缩空间。值得关注的是，月末债市出现小幅震荡，信用债收益率与信 用利差均较月内低点出现 2-3bp 左右的回撤，整体幅度相对可控。 短久期利差创新低，期限利差与等级利差尚存空间。5 月 1 年期各品种收益 率持续下行，一举突破 20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue of 111.3 billion yuan (yoy +47.4%) and Non-GAAP net profit of 10.7 billion yuan (yoy +64.5%) [5][6] - The IoT business continues to show strong growth, driven by major appliances, with revenue of 32.3 billion yuan (yoy +58.7%) [6] - The automotive business is expected to gain momentum with the upcoming launch of the YU7 model, which is anticipated to enhance sales and profitability [6][7] - The smartphone segment shows improvement in gross margin and average selling price (ASP), with ASP reaching 1,211 yuan (yoy +5.8%) [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 111.3 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 2.1% [5] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 was 10.7 billion yuan, surpassing expectations by 17.7% [5] - Revenue breakdown: - Mobile business: 50.6 billion yuan (yoy +8.9%) [5] - IoT business: 32.3 billion yuan (yoy +58.7%) [5] - Internet services: 9.1 billion yuan (yoy +12.8%) [5] - Smart automotive and other innovative businesses: 18.6 billion yuan [5] IoT Business - The IoT segment's revenue growth is primarily driven by major appliances, with a significant increase in sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [6] - The gross margin for IoT reached 25.2%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] - A new smart appliance factory is expected to start production in November 2025, aiming for an annual output of 3 million air conditioners by 2026 [6] Automotive Business - Automotive revenue for Q1 2025 was 18.6 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 23.2% [6] - The YU7 model is set to launch in July 2025, featuring advanced technology and expected to drive sales growth [6][7] Smartphone Business - The smartphone segment's gross margin improved to 12.4% in Q1 2025 [7] - The ASP for smartphones reached a record high of 1,211 yuan, with a market share increase in the high-end segment [7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 482.7 billion yuan, 612.7 billion yuan, and 713.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.9%, 26.9%, and 16.5% [8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 41.2 billion yuan, 56.9 billion yuan, and 69.9 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 51.3%, 38.1%, and 22.9% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue of 111.3 billion yuan (yoy +47.4%) and Non-GAAP net profit of 10.7 billion yuan (yoy +64.5%) [5][6] - The IoT business continues to show strong growth, driven by major appliances, with revenue of 32.3 billion yuan (yoy +58.7%) [6] - The automotive business is expected to see an increase in sales and profitability with the upcoming launch of the YU7 model [6][7] - The smartphone segment shows improvement in gross margin and average selling price (ASP), with ASP reaching 1,211 yuan (yoy +5.8%) [7] Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Overall performance: Revenue of 111.3 billion yuan (yoy +47.4%), exceeding BBG expectations by 2.1%; Non-GAAP net profit of 10.7 billion yuan (yoy +64.5%), exceeding BBG expectations by 17.7% [5] - Business breakdown: - Mobile business: Revenue of 50.6 billion yuan (yoy +8.9%), gross margin of 12.4% [5] - IoT business: Revenue of 32.3 billion yuan (yoy +58.7%), gross margin of 25.2% [5] - Internet business: Revenue of 9.1 billion yuan (yoy +12.8%), gross margin of 76.9% [5] - Smart automotive and innovative business: Revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, gross margin of 23.2% [5] IoT Business Growth - Driven by major appliances, IoT revenue reached 32.3 billion yuan (yoy +58.7%), with significant growth in air conditioning, refrigerators, and washing machines [6] - The gross margin for IoT improved to 25.2%, up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] - A new smart appliance factory is expected to start production in November 2025, aiming for an annual output of 3 million air conditioners by 2026 [6] Automotive Business Outlook - Automotive revenue for Q1 2025 was 18.6 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 23.2% [6] - The YU7 model is set to launch in July 2025, featuring advanced technology and expected to drive sales growth [6][7] Smartphone Segment Performance - The smartphone gross margin improved to 12.4%, with ASP reaching a historical high of 1,211 yuan [7] - Market share in the high-end smartphone segment has increased, particularly in the 4,000-5,000 yuan price range [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 482.7 billion yuan, 612.7 billion yuan, and 713.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.9%, 26.9%, and 16.5% [8] - Adjusted net profit projections for the same years are 41.2 billion yuan, 56.9 billion yuan, and 69.9 billion yuan, with growth rates of 51.3%, 38.1%, and 22.9% [8]

本文内容节选自华安证券研究所已发布报告，具体分析内容及风险提示请详见报告。若因对报告的摘编等产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为准。 | 华安研究 2025年6月金股组合 | 归母净利润（百万） | 归母净利润增速 | 营业收入（百万） | 营业收入增速 | eps | pe(pb有说明) | 行业 | 金股代码 | 金股 | 核心推荐逻辑 | 风险提示 | 研究员 | 报告依据 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Meituan's total revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 18%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.3% [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 12.3 billion yuan, up 52% year-over-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 6.2% [4] - Adjusted net profit was 10.9 billion yuan, a 46% increase year-over-year, significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations by 12.6% [4] - Core local business revenue was 64.3 billion yuan, also up 18% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 1.5% [4] - New business revenue was 22.2 billion yuan, a 19% increase year-over-year, also above expectations by 1.4% [4] Summary by Sections Business Performance - Meituan's food delivery and flash purchase businesses have improved user engagement and purchase frequency through refined operations [5] - The food delivery segment has introduced differentiated products to meet diverse consumer needs and has implemented safety measures to enhance food safety transparency [5] - Flash purchase services have seen significant growth across various consumer categories, with transaction volumes tripling in certain areas [5] International Expansion - Keeta, a subsidiary, is expanding internationally, having entered the Saudi Arabian market and recently announced plans to enter Brazil with a commitment to invest 1 billion USD over the next five years [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 386.3 billion, 454.3 billion, and 526.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14%, 18%, and 16% respectively [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 38.4 billion, 49.9 billion, and 60.8 billion yuan, with growth rates of -12%, 30%, and 22% respectively [7] Long-term Outlook - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on Meituan's operational capabilities and business barriers, emphasizing the company's strong execution in the retail sector [7]