Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.2 to 9.1 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.37% to 67.98% [6] - In the first half of 2025, copper production is projected to be 353,600 tons, up 12.68% year-on-year, and cobalt production is expected to be 61,100 tons, up 13.05% year-on-year [7] - The company completed the acquisition of Lumina Gold in June 2025, gaining 100% ownership of the Cangrejos gold mine in Ecuador, which has a resource reserve of 1.376 billion tons and a gold content of 638 tons [8] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.217 billion, 18.093 billion, and 18.759 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.67, 9.57, and 9.23 [9] Financial Summary - The company anticipates a revenue of 213.029 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4%, and projected revenues of 223.839 billion, 232.065 billion, and 240.274 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 16.5% in 2024, increasing to 17.0% by 2026 and remaining stable in 2027 [11] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.1% in 2024, peaking at 20.2% in 2025, and then declining to 18.3% by 2027 [11]

欧洲户储需求回暖，工商储需求高速增长 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 华安电新 张志邦 SAC职业证书号：S0010523120004 邮箱： zhangzhibang@hazq.com 2025年7月18日 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 华安证券研究所 证券研究报告 证券研究报告 要点总结 证券研究报告 证券研究报告 证券研究报告 Ø欧洲户储/工商储供给 Ø风险提示：欧洲新能源与储能需求下行；行业竞争加剧影响利润率；欧洲关税政策不确定性。 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 华安证券研究所 • 欧洲天然气成本上升带动电价上涨，促进户储需求增长。欧洲电力实行市场化交易，天然气为电价锚，欧洲天然气进口结构调整带动天然气价格上涨，进 一步导致电力市场批发电价上涨，批发电价上涨有望逐步传导到零售电价，居民户储补贴申请数量增加，经销商备货，国内户储订单增加，稼动率提升。 • 补库周期叠加夏季用电高峰，天然气价格上涨具备更强持续性。25年初欧洲经历无风寒潮，天然气库存消耗严重，最低库存为35%（24年库存最低为60%）， 欧盟强制性要求11月前必须补库至90%。25年补气缺口大，叠加欧洲对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The investment in secondary and perpetual bonds (referred to as "two - eternal bonds") in the current bond market has reached the fourth stage. Since 2024, two - eternal bonds have become amplifiers of interest rate fluctuations. The report focuses on analyzing the institutional behavior patterns of two - eternal bonds and attempts to discover effective signals [2][15]. - Different types of institutions have different allocation patterns for two - eternal bonds. For example, banks act as stabilizers in the bond market, while securities firms have high - frequency trading, funds are the main buyers, and other institutions have their own preferences [5][6]. - It is difficult to use the institutional behavior of two - eternal bonds to predict interest rate trends, but it can help investors understand the market's expectation of whether interest rates can continue to decline. The report constructs investment sentiment measurement indicators for the trading desks of two - eternal bonds to assist investors in observation [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Why Focus on the Institutional Behavior of Two - eternal Bonds? - The investment in two - eternal bonds has gone through four stages. Since 2024, they have become amplifiers of interest rate fluctuations. The report aims to analyze their institutional behavior patterns and find effective signals [2][15]. - The report discusses three types of bonds (secondary capital bonds, perpetual bonds, and ordinary financial bonds) and six types of investors (banks, securities firms, funds, wealth management, insurance, and others). Different investors' term preferences are mainly concentrated in 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y, and the trading volume of two - eternal bonds over 5Y declines significantly [3][15]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior Patterns of Two - eternal Bonds 3.2.1 Banks Still Act as Stabilizers in the Bond Market - Since the second half of 2024, commercial banks have increased the trading volume of 1Y/3Y secondary capital bonds and continuously net - sold 5Y secondary capital bonds. For perpetual bonds, the trading volume of 1Y/3Y is small, and 5Y is significantly net - sold. For ordinary financial bonds, the trading volume in the 3Y term is the largest, and they are mostly net - sold, except for increasing allocation during bond market corrections [5][16]. 3.2.2 Securities Firms Have High - Frequency Band - trading of Two - eternal Bonds - Securities firms show obvious trading - desk characteristics in the trading of two - eternal bonds, frequently switching between buying and selling with a relatively large scale. They have a high preference for 1Y/3Y/5Y two - eternal bonds and ordinary financial bonds [5][21]. 3.2.3 Funds Are the Main Buyers of Two - eternal Bonds - Funds tend to make trend - based allocations to two - eternal bonds. They continuously buy during bull markets and sell significantly during bear markets, driving market trends. In recent years, with the overall decline in the interest rates of two - eternal bonds, funds have shown a trend of increasing allocation [5][30]. 3.2.4 The Institutional Behavior Characteristics of Wealth Management in Two - eternal Bonds Are Diverse - In most periods, the trading characteristics of wealth management in two - eternal bonds are not obvious, showing an overall allocation trend. At some points, they take profits during bull markets, buy during bear markets, and continue to buy during volatile markets [5][37]. 3.2.5 Insurance Also Acts as a Stabilizer in the Bond Market - Insurance institutions generally net - sell two - eternal bonds but increase allocation during market corrections, acting as stabilizers [5][46]. 3.2.6 Other Types of Institutions Prefer to Continuously Allocate 5Y Two - eternal Bonds - Other types of institutions have a greater preference for continuously allocating 5Y two - eternal bonds [6][52]. 3.3 How to Use the Institutional Behavior Patterns of Two - eternal Bonds? - It is relatively difficult to use the institutional behavior of two - eternal bonds to predict interest rate trends due to factors such as the synchronicity of institutional behavior indicators, less trading data, and data delays [7][61]. - However, the institutional behavior of two - eternal bonds can help investors understand the market's expectation of whether interest rates can continue to decline. When investors expect interest rates to continue to decline, the trading desks of two - eternal bonds will continue to buy, compressing the spread. When the expectation weakens, the buying power will decrease [7][61]. - The report constructs investment sentiment measurement indicators for the trading desks of two - eternal bonds, which are the smoothed overall purchases of funds and securities firms in 5Y secondary capital bonds and 5Y perpetual bonds. When these indicators decline significantly and approach zero, it indicates that the trading desks are less optimistic about buying two - eternal bonds for capital gains. This year, there were two such time points in January 15th and late April, corresponding to subsequent bond market corrections or fluctuations [8][62].

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 点评报告 关税带来的高通胀为何仍未完全显现？ ——6 月美国通胀数据点评 20250716 | | | 需求敏感指标看，二手车价格环比下降 0.7%，前值为-0.5%，降幅继续扩大。 新车价格亦维持下降趋势，新车价格环比维持前月-0.3%的水平。新车及二手 车市场均降温，反映了关税冲击正在使消费需求和信心减弱。6 月美国消费者 信心指数降至 93%（前值 98.4%）。但二手车批发端已在关税成本影响下出现 强劲增长，曼海姆二手车价值指数显示批发价同比涨幅升至 6.3%，环比上升 至 1.59%。当前需求收缩强于供应链的成本推升，故汽车价格最终仍呈现下 跌，但强劲的二手车批发市场仍在未来形成通胀隐忧，曼海姆指数作为美联 储关注指标，可能制约降息节奏。从需求滞后指标来看，家具价格环比增速涨 至 1.0%（前值 0.3%），家具作为阶段性必要消费品且供应链依赖从中国进口， 关税成本即时转嫁，反映了关税对价格的真实推升幅度。综合来看，刚需品与 非刚需品的价格分化趋势在加剧，呈现冰火两重天。一方面是非刚需品显示 为弱需求压制通胀，另一方面是刚需品在供应链压力下价 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The development of generative AI models is characterized by a parallel evolution of open-source and closed-source models, with major players like Google, Adobe, OpenAI, and ByteDance intensifying competition in closed-source models while open-source models lower barriers for small developers [3][4][19] - Generative AI is making significant inroads in the film industry, enhancing quality across various stages of production, including script generation, character modeling, animation, and post-production [4][6] - In the gaming sector, generative AI is facilitating content generation and interactive scenarios, allowing for personalized player experiences through NPC interactions and dynamic responses [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. AI Video and Image Generation Model Future Outlook - The AI video and image model technology is rapidly evolving, with both closed-source and open-source models being developed by leading companies [19][20] - The focus is shifting towards 3D generation models and multi-modal integration, enhancing capabilities in content generation for film and gaming [20][25] 2. Runway - Runway has released several iterations of its generative models, with Gen-1 focusing on video editing, Gen-2 enabling text-driven video generation, and Gen-4 improving coherence and user prompt interpretation [51][52] 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou are highlighted for their advancements in generative AI models, with Tencent's Hunyuan model and Alibaba's QVQ-72B-Preview leading the way in the industry [9][19] - The report suggests monitoring companies that are continuously investing in model development and achieving initial commercial success, including Tencent, Alibaba, Kuaishou, and others in the gaming and film sectors [9][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, both social financing and credit showed seasonal rebounds with significant growth. The stock of social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 2.24 trillion yuan. M2 maintained stable growth, M1 increased significantly, and M0 maintained high growth [3]. - The significant growth of social financing this month was stronger than in previous years, with the increased issuance of government bonds being the core driving force. The structure of new social financing changed from being dominated by government bonds in the previous month to "credit - based, government bonds as a supplement" [4]. - New credit increased seasonally and was slightly higher than the same period last year, mainly driven by short - term corporate loans, and medium - and long - term corporate loans also increased [4]. - The sharp rise of M1 this month may be due to factors such as the May interest rate cut, the central bank's use of outright reverse repurchases, the decline of the ten - year Treasury bond interest rate, and the acceleration of fiscal expenditure flowing into the real economy [5]. - In terms of corporate direct financing, there was differentiation among industries, and attention should be paid to the decline of real estate financing. Corporate bill financing decreased significantly, indicating an improvement in the corporate financing environment [7][8]. - The problem of insufficient currency activation has improved under the continuous acceleration of government leverage, but there are still concerns about the corporate balance sheet. The scissors gap between M2 and M1 has narrowed, but the expansion of the balance sheet of large - scale industrial enterprises depends on debt rather than profit [8]. - The policy combination of "fiscal leadership + monetary support" has achieved significant results. In the future, each sector has room for further development, and the enterprise sector may take over the social financing in the future [9]. - Currently, it is a critical transition period of "government - driven → enterprise takeover → household follow - up". The rebound of M1 this month may be a verification point of the start of recovery, and policy support is still necessary [10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data Observation - **Social Financing and Credit**: In June, the stock of social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, with an year - on - year increase of 0.91 trillion yuan. RMB loans increased by 2.24 trillion yuan, with an year - on - year increase of 110 billion yuan. The growth of social financing was mainly driven by the high - growth of government bond financing year - on - year [3][4]. - **Money Supply**: M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points higher than last month. M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 2.3 percentage points higher than last month. M0 increased by 12% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points slower than last month [3]. - **New Credit Structure**: New credit increased seasonally, mainly driven by short - term corporate loans, and medium - and long - term corporate loans also increased. On the supply side, banks tend to increase short - term corporate loans to meet the end - of - quarter assessment requirements. On the demand side, the PMI production and new order indexes in June showed that production and orders were recovering [4]. Depth Perspective - **Fiscal Deposits**: The financing volume of government bonds was slightly lower than in previous years, and the new fiscal deposits were at a historically low level. The difference between new government bond financing and fiscal deposits increased, indicating that government funds were flowing into the real economy [6]. - **Corporate Direct Financing**: There was differentiation among industries in corporate direct financing. The net financing of energy, materials, optional consumption, and information technology industries increased year - on - year, while that of medical, industrial, communication services, and real estate industries decreased. Attention should be paid to the decline of real estate financing [7][8]. - **Bill Financing**: Corporate bill financing decreased significantly this month, and there was no obvious bill - padding phenomenon. The bill financing interest rate center decreased compared with May, indicating an improvement in the corporate financing environment [8]. Future Outlook - **Overall Economic Pattern**: The problem of insufficient currency activation has improved, but there are still concerns about the corporate balance sheet. The scissors gap between M2 and M1 has narrowed, but the expansion of the balance sheet of large - scale industrial enterprises depends on debt rather than profit. The current cycle still depends on policy support to boost household currency activity [8]. - **Policy Level**: The policy combination of "fiscal leadership + monetary support" has achieved significant results. In the future, the government sector can release fiscal space through debt resolution, the enterprise sector can improve its ability to increase leverage through debt structure optimization, and the household sector is in a weak recovery state [9]. - **Bond Market**: Currently, it is still a liquidity - loose pattern dominated by policies. Although social financing has entered the fiscal effect verification period, the weak fundamentals remain unchanged. The downward adjustment space of the bond market may be limited, and investors should actively seize the opportunities brought by emotional changes [10].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the flourishing approval of new drugs and highlights the importance of focusing on technological tracks and opportunities within the industry chain [1][5] - It suggests a dual growth strategy combining internal and external growth, particularly in the context of the imminent patent cliff for IO1.0 and the increasing recognition of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies globally [5] Industry Overview - The report notes a significant recovery in domestic healthcare policies, including the integration of commercial insurance into the medical insurance system and the inclusion of high-priced innovative drugs in the Class B medical insurance catalog [5] - The overall revenue growth rate for chemical pharmaceutical companies in 2024 is projected at 4.10%, a substantial increase from 0.24% in 2023, while the net profit growth rate is expected to be 51.66% [12][15] Investment Opportunities - Short-term focus is recommended on certain tracks with high certainty, such as IO+ADC, while long-term investments should target new technologies with significant potential, including small nucleic acids and CAR-T [5] - The report categorizes various technological tracks for investment, including combinations of PD-1 with other mechanisms and innovative solutions for unmet clinical needs [5] Company Valuations - The report provides a comparative valuation of unprofitable innovative pharmaceutical companies, highlighting their market capitalizations and projected revenues for 2024 to 2027 [6] - It also presents a comparative valuation of profitable innovative pharmaceutical companies, detailing their market capitalizations and projected net profits for the same period [8] Performance Review - The report reviews the performance of pharmaceutical companies in 2024 and Q1 2025, noting that while the overall industry faced temporary pressure, gross profit margins have steadily improved [12][15] - It highlights that many small and mid-cap innovative pharmaceutical companies have turned profitable in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in the sector [18]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The report highlights the strengthening expectations for photovoltaic supply-side reforms and the high demand for domestic energy storage procurement [1][4] - The photovoltaic sector has seen a significant increase in silicon material prices, while silicon wafer and battery prices have stabilized [15][21] - The energy storage market remains robust, with data from June indicating continued high demand, particularly in Europe [4][29] - The hydrogen energy sector is experiencing positive development, with the world's largest green hydrogen project recently launched [38][42] - The electric grid sector has seen rapid investment growth, with over 30 billion yuan allocated to key summer peak projects [43][44] Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - Silicon material prices have surged, with N-type dense material prices rising to 34,000 yuan/ton and N-type recycled material prices to 37,000 yuan/ton [17] - The overall market is in a competitive phase, with policy expectations increasing but terminal demand recovering weakly [15][16] - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies with higher certainty in the BC technology industry trend, such as Longi Green Energy and Aiko Solar [16][22] Wind Power - Multiple large-scale offshore wind projects have been announced, with significant EPC contracts awarded [23][24] - Investment recommendations include undervalued stocks and those benefiting from offshore wind projects, such as Mingyang Smart Energy and Goldwind [28] Energy Storage - The report emphasizes the promotion of high-power charging facilities and the growth of household storage in Europe due to frequent power outages [29][34] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to establish over 100,000 high-power charging facilities by the end of 2027 [29] Hydrogen Energy - The report notes the successful launch of the world's largest green hydrogen project, which aims to produce 1.52 million tons of green ammonia [38][42] - The focus is on developing a new energy system that integrates wind, solar, and hydrogen energy [38] Electric Grid Equipment - The report states that investments in the electric grid have exceeded 30 billion yuan, with 162 key summer peak projects fully operational [43] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in high-voltage transmission and distribution equipment [44] Electric Vehicles - Global lithium battery production in the first half of 2025 increased by 48% year-on-year, with major companies like CATL and BYD leading the market [45][47] - Investment recommendations include companies with stable profitability in the battery and structural components sectors [45] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is entering a small-scale production phase, with significant investments in technology and key components [50] - Investment focus areas include companies with solid core businesses and those involved in new technology developments [50] Automotive Parts - The report indicates a 15.1% year-on-year increase in wholesale automotive parts in June, suggesting a stable market outlook [51] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with higher certainty in performance and new product developments [51]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of four generations of GPU architectures by the company, which includes solutions for AI computing, professional graphics acceleration, desktop graphics acceleration, and intelligent SoC products [1][2][25] - The company aims to provide a comprehensive computing acceleration infrastructure and one-stop solutions globally, focusing on AI computing support for various industries [17][25] - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with AI computing products projected to contribute 3.36 billion yuan, accounting for 77.63% of total revenue in 2024 [1][2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - The company has undergone three development phases, focusing on full-function GPUs to support digital transformation across industries [17] - The company has successfully launched four generations of GPU architectures from 2021 to 2024, with products catering to various market needs [1][28] Section 2: AI Computing Products - The company’s AI computing products are expected to generate significant revenue, with a projected 42.42% of total revenue coming from AI computing clusters in 2024 [1][2] - The company has developed a diverse product line, including AI computing boards and modules, with a focus on high-performance applications [1][2][25] Section 3: Technological Advancements - The company has advanced its manufacturing capabilities, achieving rapid iteration from 12nm to 7nm processes and enhancing its domestic supply chain [2][7] - The company has developed a heterogeneous computing architecture integrating GPU, CPU, NPU, and VPU, leading to the successful production of the "Yangtze" SoC chip [2][32] Section 4: Market Performance - The report provides insights into the performance of the electronic industry, comparing it with the CSI 300 index, indicating a competitive landscape [3][4] - The company has established a strong investor base, having completed six rounds of financing totaling over 4.5 billion yuan, with notable investors including Sequoia China and Tencent [8][9]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current real estate market is experiencing a phase of valuation recovery, supported by policy expectations, with potential for further upside in the coming weeks [3][7][24] - The banking sector is expected to maintain a trend of upward momentum, driven by high dividend yields and stable operational logic, despite recent market fluctuations [6][21][23] Market Perspectives - The upcoming economic data release on July 15 is anticipated to show resilience, with GDP growth expected to be in the range of 5.1% to 5.3%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% [4][14][18] - The divergence in CPI and PPI trends suggests a potential for mild price improvements, which could positively impact the market if the GDP growth exceeds expectations [4][14][15] Industry Allocation - The banking sector is projected to see a significant increase in dividend yields, with short-term expectations of a rise of 0.3% to 0.62% before August, and a further increase of 0.6% to 1.21% by early 2026 [6][21][23] - The real estate sector is currently in a typical down-cycle phase, with historical patterns suggesting a potential for a 5% to 15% increase in the index over the next month, driven by policy easing [7][24][26] Specific Opportunities - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. Banks and insurance companies with strong dividend stability and long-term capital inflow [30] 2. Real estate stocks benefiting from anticipated policy easing [30] 3. Sectors with robust demand support, including rare earths, precious metals, and agricultural chemicals [31]