[Table_StockNameRptType] 荣昌生物（688331） 公司点评 RC148 授权艾伯维，进入大药 post BD 阶段 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） | 报告日期： | 2026-1-13 | | --- | --- | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 95.38 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元）118.88/25.98 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 564 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 162 | | 流通股比例（%） | 28.7% | | 总市值（亿元） | 537.67 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 154.83 | 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 荣昌生物 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：谭国超 执业证书号：S0010521120002 邮箱：tangc@hazq.com 分析师：任婉莹 执业证书号：S0010525060003 邮箱：renwanying@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 主要观点： ⚫[Table_ ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the tin industry, driven by strong demand and limited supply, suggesting a favorable investment environment [2][3]. Core Insights - The global tin market is experiencing structural tightness, with supply heavily reliant on a few resource-rich countries. In 2024, global tin production is projected to be 300,000 tons, a decrease of 1.63% year-on-year, while demand is expected to reach 385,200 tons, an increase of 3.33% year-on-year [5][15]. - Tin prices are expected to rise due to weak supply and strong demand. The prolonged suspension of mining operations in Myanmar and conflicts affecting supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo have exacerbated material shortages, driving prices upward [5][22]. - Key companies in the tin sector include: - **Yunnan Tin Company**: Leading in tin production and sales globally, with a comprehensive integrated supply chain [33]. - **Xingye Silver Tin**: Notable for its silver and tin production, with ongoing acquisitions of overseas tin resources [36]. - **Hua Tin Nonferrous Metals**: A state-owned platform benefiting from regional resource consolidation and industrial clustering [39]. Summary by Sections 1. Tin Industry Overview - Tin is a crucial metal in electronic soldering, characterized by its stability and resistance to oxidation, making it suitable for various applications [8]. - The global tin supply is concentrated, with the top four countries (Indonesia, China, Myanmar, and Australia) accounting for over 60% of reserves [14]. 2. Tin Price Trends - Tin prices are influenced by supply constraints and high demand, particularly from the electronics and renewable energy sectors. The report anticipates that if new production capacity remains limited, tin prices will likely stay elevated [22][24]. 3. Related Companies - **Yunnan Tin Company**: Achieved a market share of 25.03% globally in 2024, focusing on high-value products and sustainable practices [33]. - **Xingye Silver Tin**: Reported significant revenue growth, with a strong focus on resource acquisition and production expansion [36]. - **Hua Tin Nonferrous Metals**: Leveraging its integrated operations to enhance resource recovery and sustainability [39].

[分析师： Table_Author] 金荣 全球科技（计算机） [Table_IndNameRptType] 行业周报 英伟达 Vera Rubin 平台量产，驱动 AI 应用规模化普及 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2026-1-12 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 沪深300 计算机（申万） 执业证书号： S0010521080002 邮箱：jinrong@hazq.com 分析师：来祚豪 执业证书号： S0010524100001 邮箱：laizh@hazq.com 联系人：刘政 执业证书号： S0010125070006 邮箱：liuzheng@hazq.com 相关报告 1.计算机：商业航天、6G 成产业布 局重点，政策技术驱动。2025-12-27 2.计算机：智谱、MiniMax 通过港交 所聆讯，冲刺大模型第一股。2025- 12-22 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] T_Summary] 2026 年 1 月 6 日，英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋在 CES 2026 展会正式 ...

Market Insights - The market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by positive factors such as stable prices and improved investment expectations, with overall liquidity remaining ample and trading activity active [3][4] - The CPI for December showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, better than the previous value of 0.7%, while the PPI decreased by 1.9%, a smaller decline compared to the previous 2.2% [15][19] - The recovery in PPI indicates price stabilization, which is expected to positively impact corporate profitability and enhance market risk appetite [4][15] Industry Configuration - The military industry sector has reached a historical high in trading congestion, with the defense military trading congestion at 9.4%, the highest since 2000, and the aerospace equipment sector also hitting a record high of 2.3% [21][22] - The growth phase of the market is not yet at its end, as key indicators such as the simultaneous new highs of major growth sectors have not been met, particularly in the electric equipment, computer, and communication sectors [25][26] - The current growth style is showing signs of acceleration, but it does not fully meet the characteristics of a strong market, indicating that the growth phase may still be in its early stages [29][31] Investment Opportunities - The AI industry chain is identified as the strongest mainline investment opportunity, with a focus on computing power, supporting components, and applications [34][35] - Other sectors to watch include storage and energy chains, military industry, and machinery equipment, which are expected to benefit from rising prices and demand driven by AI and geopolitical events [35][36]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Predatory Trading Game with Disinformation - **Model Construction Idea**: This model incorporates disinformation into a predatory trading game framework, where participants act based on distorted information, leading to deviations in equilibrium and market volatility[3][16][23] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model builds on the microstructure frameworks of Carlin et al. (2007) and Carmona & Yang (2011), introducing a victim (forced to adjust risky asset positions) and predators (seeking profit from the victim's constraints)[23] 2. The trading rate of participant \( n \) is defined as: $$ X^{n}(t) = X^{n}(0) + \int_{0}^{t}\alpha^{n}(s)\mathrm{d}s \tag{1} $$ where \( \alpha^{n} \) represents the trading rate, constrained by: $$ \alpha_{t}^{n} \in \mathbb{A}^{n} = \left\{\alpha_{t}^{n} \mid \mathcal{H}_{[0,T]}^{2}, X_{T}^{n} = 0 \right\} $$ 3. Temporary price impact is modeled as: $$ P_{t} - X_{t}^{0} = \lambda \sum_{i=1}^{N}\alpha_{t}^{i} \tag{4} $$ where \( \lambda \) is the elasticity factor[24] 4. Permanent price impact is expressed as: $$ \mathrm{d}X_{t}^{0} = \gamma \sum_{i=1}^{N}a_{t}^{i}\mathrm{d}t + \sigma\mathrm{d}W_{t} \tag{5} $$ where \( \gamma \) represents market plasticity, and \( \sigma \) is the volatility parameter[24] 5. Participants aim to maximize profits: $$ J^{n}(\mathbf{\alpha}) = \mathbb{E}\left(\int_{0}^{T}\alpha^{n}\left(X_{t}^{0} + \lambda\sum_{i=1}^{N}\alpha_{t}^{i}\right)\mathrm{d}t\right) \tag{8} $$ 6. Disinformation is introduced as a random distortion \( \tilde{x}_{0,1} = x_{0,1} + \epsilon \), where \( \epsilon \) represents the distortion[27] 7. The price process under disinformation is given by: $$ X_{t}^{0} = X^{0}(0) - \frac{1-e^{-\frac{N-1}{N+1}\frac{T_{T}}{\lambda}}}{1-e^{-\frac{N-1}{N+1}\frac{T_{T}}{\lambda}}}\gamma\left(\sum_{i=1}^{N}x_{0}^{i}+\bar{\nu}\right) + \frac{e^{\frac{T t}{\lambda}}-1}{e^{\frac{T t}{\lambda}}-1}\gamma\bar{\nu} + \sigma\left(W_{t}-W_{0}\right) $$ where \( \bar{\nu} \) is the error factor[30][31] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the impact of disinformation on market dynamics, highlighting its role in amplifying volatility and disrupting equilibrium[16][30] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Predatory Trading Game with Disinformation - **Maximum Price Fluctuation (MPF)**: $$ MPF_{\nu}(t_{*},t^{*}) := \operatorname*{max}_{t_{1},t_{2}\in[t_{*},t^{*}]}\left|\mathbb{E}\left(X_{t_{1}}^{0}-X_{t_{2}}^{0}\right)\right| $$ The model demonstrates that disinformation increases MPF, with a lower bound determined by: $$ MPF_{\tilde{\nu}^{*}}(0,T) \geq \operatorname*{min}_{\tilde{\nu}\in\mathbb{R}} MPF_{\tilde{\nu}}(0,T) = \gamma\sum_{i=1}^{N}x_{0}^{i} $$[34][37] - **Error Factor Impact**: The error factor \( \nu \) significantly influences price trajectories, with higher \( \nu \) leading to greater volatility[30][33] - **Tolerance Thresholds**: The system tolerates disinformation within specific boundaries \( b_{1} \) and \( b_{2} \), beyond which volatility escalates[38][40] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Error Factor (\( \nu \)) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The error factor quantifies the degree and spread of disinformation in the market, serving as a key determinant of price volatility[30][33] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Defined as: $$ \tilde{\nu} := \frac{N_{w}}{N}\left(\tilde{x}_{0}^{1} - x_{0}^{1}\right) $$ where \( N_{w} \) is the number of misinformed participants, and \( \tilde{x}_{0}^{1} - x_{0}^{1} \) represents the distortion magnitude[30] 2. Generalized for multiple distortions: $$ \nu := \frac{1}{N}\,\sum_{l=1}^{\kappa}N_{w_{l}}\left(\bar{x}_{0,w_{l}}^{1} - x_{0}^{1}\right) $$ where \( \kappa \) is the number of distinct distortions[56] - **Factor Evaluation**: The error factor effectively captures the interplay between disinformation magnitude and its spread, providing insights into its impact on market dynamics[30][56] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Error Factor (\( \nu \)) - **Maximum Price Fluctuation (MPF)**: Higher \( \nu \) values correspond to increased MPF, with a minimum threshold determined by: $$ MPF_{\nu}(0,T) \geq \gamma\sum_{i=1}^{N}x_{0}^{i} $$[34][37] - **Tolerance Thresholds**: The system tolerates \( \nu \) within boundaries \( b_{1} \) and \( b_{2} \), with specific dependencies on market parameters and game duration[38][40] - **Dynamic Evolution**: The tolerance for \( \nu \) increases over time, reducing the potential for disinformation to amplify volatility in the long term[90][91] --- Additional Insights - **Information Updates**: New information can mitigate the impact of disinformation by adjusting the error factor \( \nu \), with the timing of updates being critical to minimizing volatility[84][92][95] - **Randomness and Misjudgment**: Random price movements can lead even informed participants to misjudge their information, complicating the detection and correction of disinformation[100][101][103] - **Profit Implications**: Disinformation affects profit expectations, with informed participants benefiting under certain conditions, while widespread disinformation can erode these advantages[49][51][56]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The next Federal Reserve chair is expected to lower interest rate cut expectations, impacting market sentiment positively[2] - The market anticipates a pause in rate cuts during the January FOMC meeting, with a focus on maintaining the current target rate[11] - The 1-year Treasury yield decreased from 1.402% to 1.337%, a drop of 6 basis points, indicating a shift in short-term interest rate expectations[2] Group 2: Domestic Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 3888.6 to 3968.84, a 2.06% increase, driven by improved macro policies and a significant rise in the construction PMI[2] - The growth style index increased from 8331.69 to 8741.04, reflecting a 4.91% rise, supported by favorable liquidity conditions[2] - The construction PMI improved significantly, indicating a potential stabilization in investment and economic recovery[17] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Insights - Brent crude oil prices fell from $58.55 to $57.42 per barrel, a decrease of 1.93%, suggesting a bearish outlook on oil due to supply dynamics[2] - The US dollar index decreased from 99.44 to 98.27, a drop of 1.18%, reflecting a slight weakening of the dollar amid lower rate cut expectations[2] - The COMEX copper price increased from $5.19 to $5.649 per pound, an 8.84% rise, indicating strong demand amid supply constraints[2]

- Theoretical new stock yield for Class A accounts with a scale of 2 billion is 3.80%[2][10] - Theoretical new stock yield for Class B accounts with a scale of 2 billion is 2.88%[2][10] - Theoretical new stock yield for Class A accounts with a scale of 10 billion is 1.74%[2][10] - Theoretical new stock yield for Class B accounts with a scale of 10 billion is 1.03%[2][10] - The average first-day increase for STAR Market stocks is 258.09%[2][20] - The average first-day increase for ChiNext stocks is 231.27%[2][20] - The number of valid quotation accounts for the latest STAR Market new stock is 4687 for Class A and 2065 for Class B[2][26] - The number of valid quotation accounts for the latest ChiNext new stock is approximately 3879 for Class A and 2610 for Class B[2][26] - The number of valid quotation accounts for the latest Shanghai Main Board new stock is 5200 for Class A and 2944 for Class B[2][26] - The number of valid quotation accounts for the latest Shenzhen Main Board new stock is 4683 for Class A and 2918 for Class B[2][26] - The highest first-day increase among newly listed stocks in the past month is 600.07% for Muxi Shares-U[37] - The highest fundraising amount among newly listed stocks in the past month is 80 billion for Moore Threads-U[37] - The highest full subscription yield among newly listed stocks in the past month is 671.65 thousand yuan for Moore Threads-U[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Muxi Shares-U is 343.75 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Angrui Micro-UW is 42.24 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for China Uranium Industry is 36.49 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Baiao Saitu is 14.67 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Youxun Shares is 24.68 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Tiansu Measurement is 5.54 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Nabai Chuan is 7.86 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Xihua Technology is 4.51 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Jianxin Superconducting is 12.53 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for C Shuangxin is 12.56 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for C Yufan is 2.35 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for C Qiangyi is 40.15 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for C Xinguangyi is 9.93 thousand yuan[41][43] - The monthly offline new stock yield for Class A accounts with a scale of 2 billion in December 2025 is 195.55 thousand yuan[48][49] - The monthly offline new stock yield for Class B accounts with a scale of 2 billion in December 2025 is 94.99 thousand yuan[53][54] - The cumulative offline new stock yield for Class A accounts with a scale of 2 billion in 2025 is 3.80%[48][49] - The cumulative offline new stock yield for Class B accounts with a scale of 2 billion in 2025 is 2.88%[53][54]

Group 1 - The macro policy continues to strengthen, with a significant improvement in the construction PMI indicating that investment is expected to stabilize, and the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut is increasing, alongside currency appreciation and public fund allocation supporting micro liquidity, suggesting a gradual spring market may unfold [3][4][5] - The probability of a "good start" in the market is increasing, driven by continuous positive factors such as policy support in consumption and real estate, a significant improvement in construction PMI, and the potential for a reserve requirement ratio cut in January [4][5] - The economic fundamentals show marginal changes, with a focus on whether the investment sector can stabilize at the beginning of the year, as the construction PMI has rebounded significantly, indicating potential policy effectiveness in stabilizing investment [5][25][26] Group 2 - The industry configuration emphasizes "stories" and "performance" as key elastic opportunities, with the AI industry chain identified as the strongest mainline, focusing on computing power, supporting components, and key applications [6][40][41] - The first mainline is the AI industry chain, which is expected to continue its strong trend, with attention on computing power (CPO/PCB), supporting components (optical fibers/liquid cooling/power supply), and applications (robots/games/software) [40][41][43] - The second mainline focuses on sectors with high prosperity or significant event catalysts, including storage and energy storage chains, military industry, and machinery equipment, with expectations of long-term prosperity driven by AI demand and geopolitical events [41][42]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the regenerative medicine sector, highlighting specific companies as key investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The regenerative medicine platform company is positioned in the high-end manufacturing field of neurosurgery, with a projected revenue growth of 30% and a net profit increase of 43% in Q1-Q3 of 2025. The company is expected to enter a product harvest phase from 2025 to 2027, stabilizing net profit margins and increasing profits [1]. - The report emphasizes the benefits of centralized procurement, with the company achieving significant growth by trading price for volume, projecting a 21% revenue increase and a 93% net profit growth in 2024 [1]. - The report identifies new product approvals and expanded indications as key growth drivers, with expectations of a 100% growth rate for certain products from 2025 to 2026 [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Regenerative Medicine - The regenerative medicine company is expected to see a revenue increase of 30% and a net profit increase of 43% in Q1-Q3 of 2025, entering a product harvest phase from 2025 to 2027 [1]. - The company benefits from centralized procurement, achieving a 21% revenue increase and a 93% net profit growth in 2024 [1]. - New product approvals are anticipated to drive a 100% growth rate from 2025 to 2026 [1]. Automotive - The automotive sector shows a positive outlook with the introduction of a second brand expected to enhance performance significantly compared to Q3 [1]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 1,099 million in 2026, with a growth rate of 37% [1]. Paper Industry - The white cardboard paper industry is expected to see a recovery in downstream demand, with the company positioned to benefit from high market concentration and improved pricing power [1]. - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 407 million in 2026, with a growth rate of 123% [1]. Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is experiencing high demand, with the agricultural market showing signs of recovery [1]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 2,078 million in 2026, maintaining a growth rate of 14% [1]. Mining - The mining sector is benefiting from rising gold and copper prices, with the company expected to see a 54% increase in net profit [1]. - The projected revenue for 2026 is 50,478 million, with a growth rate of 10% [1].

[Table_StockNameRptType] 医药生物 行业专题 ADC 研发热情高涨，CDMO 需求高景气 行业评级： 增持 报告日期： 2025-12-31 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 -21% -1% 19% 39% 12/31 03/31 06/30 09/30 12/31 医药生物 沪深300 分析师：谭国超 执业证书号：S0010521120002 邮箱：tangc@hazq.com 分析师：杨馥瑗 执业证书号：S0010524080001 邮箱：yangfuyuan@hazq.com 相关报告 1.【华安医药】2026 年医药行业投资 策略报告：创新、商业化和国际化 2025-12-17 2.【华安医药】医疗器械专题之脑机 接口：2025 脑机接口行业发展更新 2025-10-14 主要观点： ⚫ ADC 现已成为最有前景且发展最快的治疗方式之一 ADC 药物兼具抗体药物的精准靶向特性和小分子细胞毒性药物的强杀 伤力。传统化疗存在高脱靶毒性，并可能导致感染等风险增加。相较之 下，ADC 结合了抗体疗法、化疗和小分子抑制剂疗法的优势，具有独特 的靶向能力，显示出更好的临床试验结果。近年来 ...