[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 报告日期： 2025-09-07 [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号： S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 本周综述： ⚫[Table_Summary] 基金的债市定价权进一步提升，短期仍有做多机会 从近几周的债券交易情况来看，不少投资者观察到了两个现象，一是当 天的利率走势大多与基金的行为相关（根据 CNEX 债券分歧指数），二 是部分交易日利率出现"莫名"上行，本文就该现象进行探讨。 首先，基金与利率走势的高相关性实际不是新鲜事。根据 CNEX 债券分 歧指数中的机构分类来看，主要有银行、保险、基金、券商四大类，其 中保险机构几乎不再买入长端国债（10Y），银行中交易利率债较为活 跃的农商行则为基金的对手盘，券商因为存在大量的过券交易，日内更 多以波段交易为主。此外，其他类型机构如外资主要买入 1Y 期限短 债，理财、货基的买债久期平均较短。 但是今年以来，基金主导利率行情的趋势进一步强化。我们统计了基金 与农商行的净买入量与利率的相关性，其中净买入 ...

策略研究 周度报告 坚守主线还是高切低? 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-09-07 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号：S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱：rensy@hazq.com 分析师：陈博 执业证书号：S0010525070002 电话：18811134382 邮箱：chenbo@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略月报《案阔正帆势未休—2025 年 9 月 A 股市场研判及配置机会》 2025-08-31 2.策略周报《权重股补涨对行情有何 启示？》2025-08-24 3.策略周报《经济放缓势头明显，期待 特定领域对冲》2025-08-17 4. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.06 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 6.65%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 571 million yuan, down 7.83% year-over-year [4] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.064 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 4.79%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.97% year-over-year to 301 million yuan [5] - The company has seen a marginal improvement in performance, with a significant reduction in expense ratios, leading to a recovery in profitability [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a quarter-on-quarter revenue increase of 6.9% and a year-over-year net profit growth of 1.97% [5] - The operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was 244 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 45.9% [4] - The company’s revenue from domestic operations in H1 2025 was 1.904 billion yuan, down 8.32% year-over-year, while overseas revenue was 157 million yuan, up 19.78% year-over-year [5] Research and Development - The company maintained high R&D investments, with expenditures of 571.69 million yuan, 656.13 million yuan, and 731.93 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, representing 12.87%, 14.77%, and 16.37% of revenue respectively [6] - In H1 2025, the company obtained 88 new reagent certificates covering various diagnostic methods [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 4.501 billion yuan, 4.975 billion yuan, and 5.531 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of approximately 0.7%, 10.5%, and 11.2% respectively [8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.22 billion yuan, 1.403 billion yuan, and 1.617 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 2.2%, 14.9%, and 15.3% respectively [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the current round of adjustment, credit bonds have certain cost - effectiveness, but the bond market may still be adjusted in the short term, so investors are advised to adopt a defensive strategy. Short - duration bonds have good cost - effectiveness for capital preservation, and for those with yield requirements, short - duration bonds of medium - and low - grade can be further explored, while 3 - year bonds can balance defensive attributes and yield requirements [6] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Current Situation of Credit Bond Spreads - Since August, affected by the capital market and the adjustment of the equity market, credit bonds have shown a volatile market, and credit spreads have continued to widen. The static yield of credit bonds is at a phased high, and the cost - effectiveness of mining income is gradually increasing. However, due to the end - of - quarter factor and the equity market, the bond market is still difficult to stabilize in the short term [1] Yield Changes of Urban Investment Bonds - As of September 4, for 1 - year AAA - rated urban investment bonds, the yield was 1.70%, up about 3.65bp from the previous low, and the 3 - year yield rose from 1.77% to 1.91%, up about 14.33bp. For 1 - year AA - rated bonds, the yield was up about 3.58bp from the previous low, and the 3 - year AA - rated bonds were up about 19.82bp. Short - end credit bond varieties showed better stability during bond market fluctuations [2] Investment Suggestions for Different Institutions - For institutions with stable liability ends, the cost - effectiveness of medium - and long - term credit bonds is relatively significant, and there is a significant riding income around 3 years. The term spreads of 3 - year and 5 - year bonds of each grade are at a high level this year, so relevant assets can be appropriately allocated if the subsequent valuation fluctuation risk can be borne [2] - For valuation - sensitive institutions with unstable liability ends, short - end varieties have sufficient spread protection. It is recommended to maintain a defensive strategy before the right - side signal appears. Short - end varieties still have good cost - effectiveness in terms of defense [3] Spread Protection Analysis - When calculating the maximum spread increase that each implied - rating bond can accept at the break - even point for a 1 - month holding period, the spread protection of 1 - year varieties is significantly higher than that of other terms. Generally, the spread protection increases slightly as the rating decreases [3] - When calculating with the yield of the same - term China Development Bank bonds as the implied minimum yield requirement, the spread protection difference between terms decreases, while the difference between grades increases [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Alibaba's cloud business is accelerating growth, with capital expenditures (CapEx) exceeding expectations [6] - Overall performance for FY26Q1 shows revenue of 247.7 billion yuan (up 2% year-on-year), slightly below Bloomberg consensus expectations by 2.18%, and adjusted net profit of 33.5 billion yuan (down 18% year-on-year), also below expectations by 12.82% [6][5] - The report anticipates revenue growth for FY2026-2028 at 10.4% and 12.4% respectively, while Non-GAAP net profit is expected to decline by 21.7% in FY2026 before recovering in subsequent years [6][7] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Revenue for FY26Q1 was 247.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2%, slightly below expectations [6] - Adjusted net profit was 33.5 billion yuan, down 18% year-on-year, also below expectations [6] Business Segments - Revenue from the China e-commerce group was 140.1 billion yuan (up 10% year-on-year), with adjusted EBITA of 38.4 billion yuan (down 21% year-on-year) [6] - AIDC revenue was 34.7 billion yuan (up 19% year-on-year), with adjusted EBITA close to breakeven at -0.59 million yuan [6] - Intelligent Cloud Group revenue reached 33.4 billion yuan (up 26% year-on-year), with adjusted EBITA of 3 billion yuan (up 26% year-on-year) [6] - Other revenues totaled 58.6 billion yuan (down 28% year-on-year), with adjusted EBITA of -1.4 billion yuan (down 31% year-on-year) [6] Cloud Business and CapEx - Cloud business revenue was 33.4 billion yuan, showing a 26% year-on-year increase, surpassing expectations by 4.86% [6] - CapEx for the quarter was 38.6 billion yuan, significantly higher than the expected 29.2 billion yuan, with a commitment to invest 380 billion yuan in AI capital expenditures over the next three years [6] Investment Recommendations - The report projects revenues for FY2026-2028 at 1,049.7 billion yuan, 1,158.1 billion yuan, and 1,301.9 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.4%, 10.3%, and 12.4% [6] - Non-GAAP net profits are expected to be 123.7 billion yuan, 173.2 billion yuan, and 202.0 billion yuan for FY2026-2028, reflecting a year-on-year change of -21.7%, +40.0%, and +16.6% respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.903 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26 million yuan, down 77.58% year-on-year [5] - The average market price of the company's main product, spandex, was 23,563.49 yuan per ton as of August 29, 2025, a decrease of 10.8% year-on-year [6] - The company is actively developing new materials, with its aramid coating for lithium battery separators showing promising progress and expected to enter production testing in 2025 [9] - The company anticipates gradual improvement in the supply-demand relationship for spandex, with no new production capacity planned after 2026, which may lead to a slow price recovery [6][10] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 17.68%, down 0.51 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 0.60%, down 3.75 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 182 million, 297 million, and 379 million yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 47.18X, 28.88X, and 22.59X respectively [10] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 39.29 billion yuan in 2024 to 64.54 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.8% [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's main products are under pressure, and it is waiting for a recovery in the industry chain [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.776 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -397 million yuan, a decline of 140.60% year-on-year [4][5] - The second quarter saw a revenue of 4.548 billion yuan, with a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decrease of 42.11% and 13.02%, respectively [4] - The company experienced a significant drop in sales volume and prices for its main products, including industrial silicon, silicone rubber, and silicone oil [5] - The report indicates that the company is expected to benefit from potential price recovery as the industry undergoes restructuring and capacity consolidation [6] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 2.014 billion, 2.840 billion, and 3.773 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30.06X, 21.31X, and 16.04X [7] - Key financial indicators for 2025E include revenue of 28.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.6%, and a net profit margin of 7.0% [10] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 18.8% in 2025, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 5.8% [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 869 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 21.15%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 163 million yuan, up 3.84% year-over-year [6] - The integration of Haiji has significantly enhanced performance, while the IVD business faces short-term pressure [6] - The company has launched several innovative products in key areas such as respiratory diseases, gene sequencing, and maternal and child health, with a threefold increase in revenue from the gene sequencing business in the first half of 2025 [7] - The company is establishing a "diagnosis + treatment" dual-driven model through acquisitions and strategic partnerships, aiming to create a comprehensive ecosystem in the life sciences sector [8] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are expected to reach 2.008 billion yuan, 2.398 billion yuan, and 2.931 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 358 million yuan, 454 million yuan, and 592 million yuan, indicating strong growth [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 393 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 20.59%, but net profit decreased by 6.21% [6] - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2025 was impacted by a high base from the previous year, with a decline of approximately 10% when excluding the contributions from Haiji and Hong'an [6] Business Development - The company has made significant strides in integrating its operations, with the acquisition of Zhongshan Shengxiang Haiji enhancing its production capabilities and revenue [8] - The company is focusing on a comprehensive medical service system that combines hospital support, community platforms, and home-based care [7] Future Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth of approximately 37.7%, 19.4%, and 22.2% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 0.62 yuan, 0.78 yuan, and 1.02 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 33x, 26x, and 20x [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady development in its pig farming business and plans to acquire 51% of Qiangdu Livestock through a cash purchase, which is expected to enhance its operational capacity [5][6] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 338 million yuan, up 22.3% year-on-year [3][4] - The company aims to achieve a pig output target of 3.5 to 4 million heads in 2025, with a significant reduction in self-breeding costs to 12.55 yuan per kilogram [4][5] Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 338 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 47% as of June 30, 2025, down 4.4 percentage points from March 2025 [3] - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 19.01 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.7%, and net profit is expected to be 745 million yuan, reflecting a 23.1% increase [8][10] - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to improve, with projections of 12.1% in 2024 and 13.0% by 2027 [10] Operational Insights - The company has successfully increased its pig output, with 1.5282 million pigs sold in the first half of 2025, a 9.1% increase year-on-year, achieving 38.2% to 43.7% of its annual target [4][5] - The acquisition of Qiangdu Livestock is expected to integrate existing capacities without adding new production, aligning with current pig farming regulatory policies [5][6] - The company’s feed sales volume decreased slightly by 0.6% year-on-year, but the revenue from feed dropped by 14.2%, indicating challenges in the feed segment [5][6]

Market Overview - On September 4, the market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.25% and the ChiNext Index falling by 4.25%. The total trading volume for the A-shares reached 2.58 trillion, an increase of nearly 8% compared to the previous trading day, indicating sustained high trading activity [3]. - The market showed characteristics of both significant gains and losses, with sectors such as retail (+1.63%), beauty care (+1.19%), and banking (+0.79%) leading the gains, while telecommunications (-8.48%), electronics (-5.08%), and non-ferrous metals (-3.65%) faced the largest declines [3]. Strategy Analysis - The recent market downturn is attributed to profit-taking after a strong rally since early April, where the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index saw increases of 24.6% and 59.9%, respectively, without any significant corrections [3][4]. - The proximity of significant political events has weakened the consensus that previously stabilized the market, leading to increased volatility and profit-taking [4]. Key Insights - The decision-makers' focus on the capital market remains unchanged, transitioning from "stabilizing and activating" to "consolidating and improving the upward momentum," which provides a safety net for continued liquidity inflow and active trading [6]. - The trend of liquidity inflow into the market is expected to persist, supported by factors such as the ongoing "asset shortage" phenomenon and favorable conditions for foreign investment in Chinese assets [6]. - There is an expectation for continued proactive macro and industrial policies, especially with the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could enhance domestic monetary easing [6]. Investment Focus - The report emphasizes maintaining a focus on high-elasticity growth technology sectors, including TMT, AI, computing power, robotics, and military industries, which are expected to remain strong despite market adjustments [7]. - Another area of focus includes sectors with solid performance support or exceeding earnings expectations, such as rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals, which are anticipated to benefit from favorable global economic conditions and geopolitical dynamics [8].