Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - Major gaming companies continue to show strong revenue performance, and the cross-border payment concept may see a catalyst [1] - The report highlights significant developments in AI, both domestically and internationally, with a focus on new model releases and investments in AI infrastructure [4][5][41] Weekly Market Review - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, the ChiNext Index increased by 1.5%, and the CSI 300 Index saw a rise of 1.54%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.34% [3][26] - The media index increased by 2.39%, while the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index dropped by 2.37% [26] AI Sector Developments - NVIDIA's DLSS technology is set to receive a major update with a new "Transformer model," which is expected to significantly reduce memory usage [41] - Baidu's Wenxin large model 4.5 series has been officially open-sourced, featuring models with activation parameters of 47B and 3B [41] - Zhipu AI announced a strategic investment of 1 billion yuan and the release of the GLM-4.1V-Thinking visual language model [42] Domestic AI Highlights - Tencent Yuanqi has integrated WeChat Pay MCP, enabling developers to add various functionalities to smart agents [9] - ByteDance's EX-4D framework has been released, allowing for the generation of high-quality 4D video sequences from single-view videos [42] Semiconductor Sector Updates - SK Hynix announced its collaboration with Intel to supply HBM4 products for future AI chips [10] - CoreWeave has become the first large-scale AI cloud provider to deploy NVIDIA's GB300 NVL72 system [44] E-commerce and Consumer Insights - TEMU reported a significant increase in monthly active users, reaching 416.5 million, a year-on-year growth of 68% [12] - Alibaba announced a private placement of zero-coupon exchangeable bonds totaling HKD 12.023 billion to support cloud computing infrastructure [16] Gaming Industry Performance - The total revenue of the top 50 gaming products in June was approximately 15.3 billion yuan, a decrease of about 5% compared to May [19] - Tencent Games maintained 11 products in the top 50, consistent with the previous month [19]

Group 1 - Industry Investment Rating: Overweight [1] - Core Viewpoint: The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 16th with a fluctuation of 0.80%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.60 percentage points [4][22] - Key Recommendations: Focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sugar substitutes, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Group 2 - Synthetic Biology: A pivotal moment is approaching, with low-energy products expected to gain a longer growth window due to the energy structure adjustment [4] - Refrigerants: The third-generation refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle, with supply constraints and stable demand growth anticipated [5] - Electronic Specialty Gases: The domestic market faces a contradiction between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting significant domestic substitution opportunities [6][8] - Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals: A global trend towards lighter raw materials in the olefin industry is noted, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter ethane and propane [8] - COC Polymers: The domestic industrialization process is accelerating, driven by breakthroughs in local enterprises and a shift in downstream industries to domestic production [9] - Potash Fertilizer: Prices are expected to bottom out and rebound due to supply reductions and increased demand from farmers [10] - MDI Market: The oligopoly structure is expected to improve, with demand steadily increasing and a favorable supply outlook anticipated [12]

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 大行资金融出为何高达 5.3 万亿？ ——债市机构行为周报（7 月第 1 周） 报告日期： 2025-07-06 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号： S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 本周综述： ⚫[Table_Summary] 如何看待当前大行 5.3 万亿的资金融出，后续 10 年会下行吗？ 跨季以来，长债横盘，资金利率、短端利率以及信用下行较为明显。7 月以来 10 年与 30 年国债到期收益率维持在 1.65%与 1.85%中枢，资金 利率 DR007 下探至 1.40%附近，隔夜降至 1.30%，信用表现同样较强。 资金转松依然是本周行情的主线，传导链为资金转松->短端下行->信用 正 Carry 提升，而其中的关键变量是大行净融出的回升，当前大行资金 融出升至 5.3 万亿元，如何理 ...

策略研究 周度报告 "反内卷"行情能否成为新主线？ [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-07-06 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号：S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱：rensy@hazq.com 分析师：陈博 执业证书号：S0010525070002 电话：18811134382 邮箱：chenbo@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略月报《扰动在前，提升在后 — 2025 年 7 月 A 股市场研判及配置机 会》2025-06-29 2.中期策略《积聚向上突破的力量 — 2025 年 A 股中期投资策略》2025-06- 22 主要观点 ⚫ 短期存在外部风险 ...

D [Table_IndNameRptType] 基础化工 行业周报 合成生物学周报：工信部征集非粮生物基材料案例， 常德市出台全国首部合成生物制造法规 | | | 报告日期： 2025-07-03 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 22% 33% -21% -10% 1% 11% 7/24 10/24 1/25 4/25 7/25 基础化工 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 执业证书号：S0010522110002 电话：13621792701 邮箱：wangqf@hazq.com 分析师：刘天其 执业证书号：S0010524080003 电话：17321190296 邮箱：liutq@hazq.com 主要观点： [Table_Summary] 华安证券化工团队发表的《合成生物学周报》是一份面向一级市场、 二级市场，汇总国内外合成生物学相关领域企业信息的行业周报。 目前生命科学基础前沿研究持续活跃，生物技术革命浪潮席卷全球并 加速融入经济社会发展，为人类应对生命健康、气候变化、资源能源 安全、粮食安全等重大挑战提供了崭新的解决方案。国家发改委印发 《"十 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 专题报告 基于股份行交易的利率择时信号 报告日期： 2025-07-02 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 基于股份行交易行为的利率择时信号构建 股份行，机构行为研究的最后一块"拼图"。在我们此前的机构行为研究中， 已对债市 9 类机构（大行、农商行、基金、理财、货基、券商、保险、其他产 品类、外资）进行了一系列研究，而股份行与城商行则是机构行为研究中的最 后一块"拼图"。 目前市场对于股份行的机构行为公式在于该类机构通常在二级市场进行分 销。股份行与城商行通常具有较为明显的"一级认购、二级分销"的性质，因 此在二级现券交易中我们通常可以看到其整体呈现净卖出的特征，这也是市 场所达成的共识。 我们发现，2024 年以来股份行已 ...

Economic Indicators - In June, the official manufacturing PMI recorded 49.7%, a slight increase from 49.5% in May, but still below the expansion threshold[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5% from 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in the service sector[2] - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.7%, reflecting overall economic recovery[2] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index continued to expand, with new orders rising above the threshold, indicating improved demand[3] - New export orders showed a minor recovery, with domestic orders performing better than foreign ones[3] - The purchasing volume surged into the expansion zone, reflecting a positive shift in corporate procurement attitudes[3] Price and Inventory Dynamics - Both factory prices and major raw material purchase prices increased, indicating a balance between downstream demand recovery and upstream commodity price fluctuations[3] - Finished goods inventory rose significantly, while raw material inventory continued to recover, suggesting a cautious approach to inventory management[3] Sectoral Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 51.4%, while the consumer goods sector PMI rose to 50.4%, marking six consecutive months of growth[4] - Large enterprises maintained strong PMI performance, while small enterprises saw a decline of 2 percentage points, highlighting resource imbalances within the industry[4] Future Outlook - The EPMI index fell to 47.9%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a divergence from the PMI due to ongoing trade tensions and tariff issues[10] - Economic recovery remains uncertain, with the real estate sector still in a downturn and consumer prices under pressure, suggesting reliance on fiscal stimulus for demand recovery[13] - The bond market is expected to remain stable, supported by the current economic data and policy expectations, despite external uncertainties[16]

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 超长债有可能换券吗？ ——利率周记（6 月第 5 周） 报告日期： 2025-07-01 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 第二，以年初至今的特别国债发行规模线性外推，今年发行总量为 13020 亿 元，与两会所公布的发行总量 1.3 万亿元大致相当。根据年内的剩余发行计 划，我们假设未来同期限特别国债的发行规模与已发行债券单券规模大致相 当，最终可得到年内超长特别国债发行总规模在 13020 亿元，与两会所公布 的发行总量大致相当。 第三，哪些券更有可能换券？20Y 可能出现换券，30Y 活跃券或仍为 2500002.IB。当前 20Y 与 30Y 活跃券的规模分别为 1500（2500001.IB）亿元 与 3550 亿元（2500002.IB），7 月 14 日 20 年国债将面临首发，随后在 8 月 14 日与 9 月 10 日会有两次续发，3 次发行的总规模可能在 ...

债市的买方情绪率先降温 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 ——债市情绪面周报（6 月第 5 周） 报告日期： 2025-06-30 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：建议切换至活跃券把握债市左侧行情 当前债市的交易主线并不明确，整体顺风但在投资者高久期、高杠杆的 情况下仍有利空因素扰动，基本面难空债市，央行对于资金面呵护意图较为 明显，从近期的机构行为特征看，大行买短已经持续近 1 月，非银机构追涨 情绪高昂，其他产品类净买入明显加大（去年 7-8 月表现类似），维持久期， 持有 10Y/30Y 活跃券更有利于利好兑现时获取资本利得，以及利空出现时的 及时止损。 ⚫ 卖方观点：情绪指数小幅回落，仍有超 6 成固收卖方看多债市 从市场情绪的角 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType] 基础化工 行业周报 乙烷禁运风波趋缓，从"全面停运"到"可运输、暂不卸货" [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2025-6-30 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -27% -14% 0% 14% 27% 41% 基础化工 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 执业证书号：S0010522110002 电话：13621792701 邮箱：wangqf@hazq.com 分析师：潘宁馨 执业证书号：S0010524070002 电话：13816562460 邮箱：pannx@hazq.com [Table_Report] 相关报告 1.壳牌关闭新加坡炼油厂，原油、制冷剂 R22 价格上涨 20250105 山东布局精细化工产业发展，制冷剂 R32、 R125、R134a 价格上涨 20241230 2.2025 年制冷剂配额下发，天然气、顺酐价 格上涨 20241224 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 行业周观点 本周（2025/06/23-2025/06/27）化工板块整体涨跌 ...