[Table_StockNameRptType] 金融工程 专题报告 5 月看好小盘成长风格 ——风格轮动月报 202505 [Table_Rpt 报告日期： Date] 2025-5-7 主要观点： 分析师：严佳炜 执业证书号：S0010520070001 邮箱：yanjw@hazq.com ⚫[Table_Summary] 观点回顾：4 月大小盘轮动超额-0.3%，价值成长轮动超额收益 0.2% 2025 年 4 月，风格轮动模型看多大盘成长风格。本月大小盘轮动组合 相对风格等权基准的超额收益为-0.3%；价值成长轮动组合相对风格等 权基准的超额收益为 0.2%。 联系人：吴正宇 执业证书号：S0010522090001 邮箱：wuzy@hazq.com ⚫ 最新观点：5 月建议配置小盘成长风格 5 月模型判断风格为小盘成长：其中，宏观经济和微观特征指向小盘风 格，而市场状态模型看好大盘。价值成长维度，各子模型均指向成长风 格。 ⚫ 风险提示 本报告基于历史个股数据进行测试，历史回测结果不代表未来收益。未 来市场风格可能切换，Alpha 因子可能失效，本文内容仅供参考。 [Table_CompanyRep ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Buy (maintained) [2][8] Core Views - The company is facing short-term pressure on performance in 2024, but is increasing R&D investment to build long-term advantages [2][6] - The company reported a revenue of 744 million yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.17% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 103 million yuan, down 54.68% year-on-year [6][9] - The company is focusing on the rehabilitation sector, which has significant long-term potential, while experiencing short-term profit pressure due to rising expense ratios [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - 2024 revenue: 744 million yuan (yoy -0.17%); net profit: 103 million yuan (yoy -54.68%); non-recurring net profit: 89.97 million yuan (yoy -55.90%) [6][11] - Q4 2024 revenue: 237 million yuan (yoy +16.74%); net profit: 29.53 million yuan (yoy -38.45%); non-recurring net profit: 25.54 million yuan (yoy -35.06%) [6][11] - Q1 2025 revenue: 186 million yuan (yoy +10.02%); net profit: 22.95 million yuan (yoy -41.26%); non-recurring net profit: 18.71 million yuan (yoy -48.72%) [6][11] Expense and Profitability Metrics - Sales expense ratio: 28.91% (yoy +6.10pct); management expense ratio: 8.10% (yoy +2.60pct); R&D expense ratio: 20.45% (yoy +6.12pct) [6][9] - Gross margin: 67.42%, down 1.20 pct year-on-year; net margin: 13.83%, down 16.82 pct year-on-year [6][9] R&D Investment and Future Outlook - R&D investment in 2024 was 152 million yuan, an increase of 42.41% year-on-year, accounting for 20.45% of total revenue [6][9] - The company has established multiple R&D centers and is focusing on advanced technologies such as brain-machine interfaces and rehabilitation robotics [7][9] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 848 million yuan, 972 million yuan, and 1.121 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14.1%, 14.6%, and 15.3% respectively [8][11] Earnings Per Share and Valuation - Expected EPS for 2025-2027: 0.94 yuan, 1.21 yuan, and 1.57 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 38x, 29x, and 23x [9][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure in 2024, but increased R&D investment is expected to build long-term advantages [2][6] - The company reported a revenue of 744 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 103 million yuan, down 54.68% year-on-year [6][9] - The company is focusing on the rehabilitation sector, which has significant long-term potential despite short-term profit pressures due to rising expense ratios [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 744 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -0.17% [6][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 103 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 54.68% [6][11] - The company’s gross margin was 67.42%, down 1.20 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 13.83%, down 16.82 percentage points year-on-year [6][11] - R&D expenses increased by 42.41% year-on-year to 152 million yuan, representing 20.45% of total revenue [6][11] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from rehabilitation therapy equipment was 504 million yuan, up 9.85% year-on-year [6][9] - Revenue from rehabilitation training equipment was 165 million yuan, down 19.89% year-on-year [6][9] - Revenue from rehabilitation assessment equipment was 27.62 million yuan, down 21.92% year-on-year [6][9] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 848 million yuan, 972 million yuan, and 1.121 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 14.1%, 14.6%, and 15.3% [8][11] - Net profit projections for the same years are 151 million yuan, 194 million yuan, and 251 million yuan, with growth rates of 46.5%, 28.8%, and 29.3% [8][11] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.94 yuan, 1.21 yuan, and 1.57 yuan, respectively [8][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2025, the convertible bond proportion of fixed - income + funds showed a significant downward trend, dropping to 12.37%. The total scale of fixed - income + funds increased from 16645.54 billion yuan in Q4 2024 to 17709.06 billion yuan, while the convertible bond scale decreased slightly from 2230.32 billion yuan to 2190.99 billion yuan [3]. - The net supply of the convertible bond market shrank significantly in Q1 2025. The number of newly - listed convertible bonds decreased from 17 in Q4 2024 to 9, and the listing scale dropped from 222.90 billion yuan to 145.90 billion yuan. The delisting scale increased from 409.15 billion yuan to 1005.59 billion yuan. The market value of convertible bonds held by funds was stable but slightly decreased, and the number of convertible bonds held decreased from 492 to 478 [4]. - In Q1 2025, the convertible bond positions of different types of fixed - income + funds showed structural differentiation. Hybrid secondary bond funds still dominated, but the overall position scale continued the prudent retraction trend. Hybrid primary bond funds adjusted their rhythm slowly after the previous stage of expansion, and the position proportion remained in the central range. The position base of partial - debt hybrid funds was the smallest, and the position proportion continued to converge to a low level [5]. - In Q1 2025, the fund market's convertible bond investment was characterized by "active position adjustment and strategy differentiation". Hybrid secondary bond funds dominated the market trend with flexible position management, showing obvious internal strategy differences. Capital allocation followed the dual - line logic of "stable finance + betting on growth", with the financial sector and tracks such as photovoltaics and semiconductors being concentratedly increased, while delisted targets and traditional cyclical industries were significantly reduced [6]. - In Q1 2025, the investment trend of the convertible bond market tended to be structurally differentiated. Institutional funds strengthened the dual main lines of defense and growth by increasing financial bonds and emerging industry targets, and reduced delisted varieties and industries with declining prosperity to avoid risks. The market formed a layout feature of "stabilizing the center and grasping the structure" under the expectation of loose liquidity [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fund Holding Convertible Bond Situation - **Total Scale and Proportion of Convertible Bonds in Fixed - income + Funds**: In Q1 2025, the convertible bond proportion of fixed - income + funds decreased significantly. The total scale of fixed - income + funds increased from 14804.61 billion yuan in Q1 2024 to 17709.06 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year - on - year increase of 19.62%. In Q1 2025, the convertible bond proportion was 12.37%, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 7.66% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.58%, indicating that investors' risk preference in the fixed - income + fund market tended to be stable [15]. - **Supply Side**: In Q1 2025, the convertible bond market continued to shrink, and the net supply decreased significantly. The number of newly - listed convertible bonds was 9, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 47.06%, and the listing scale was 145.9 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 34.55%. The number of delisted convertible bonds was 27, a year - on - year increase of 50%, and the delisting scale was 1005.59 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 145.78% and a year - on - year increase of 239.18% [17]. - **Demand Side**: In Q1 2025, the market value of convertible bonds held by funds was stable but slightly decreased. The number of convertible bonds held by funds was 478, a year - on - year decrease of 7.54% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 2.85%. The market value of convertible bonds held by funds increased from 2610 billion yuan in Q1 2024 to 2722 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year - on - year increase of 4.28%, and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.06% compared with Q4 2024 [23][25]. 3.2 Performance of Convertible Bond Positions of Different Types of Fixed - income + Funds - **Position Scale**: The convertible bond position scale of different types of fixed - income + funds continued the mild adjustment trend. Hybrid secondary bond funds still dominated the market, and the overall position structure did not change significantly, but the scale gradually became more prudent in retraction. Hybrid primary bond funds showed a phased expansion trend in some quarters, while partial - debt hybrid funds had the smallest position base and the mildest scale change [27]. - **Position Trend**: The relative relationship of the three types of position scales remained basically unchanged. Hybrid secondary bond funds dominated, fluctuating around 20%, and slightly declined in Q1 2025 after reaching the second peak in Q4 2024. Hybrid primary bond funds had relatively small fluctuations, showing a conservative allocation style. Partial - debt hybrid funds had the lowest position and the most stable changes, and showed a more obvious recovery in Q1 2025 [32][34]. 3.3 From the Perspective of Fund Strategies: Structural Iteration behind Steady Positions - **Position Proportion**: Hybrid secondary bond funds were the most active in leading the changes of convertible bonds. In the top ten list of fixed - income + fund position reductions, secondary bond funds accounted for 7 seats. In the top ten list of position increases, secondary bond funds accounted for 6 seats, showing significant internal strategy differences [37][38]. - **Scale Change**: Hybrid secondary bond funds led the scale change of convertible bond positions. In the top ten list of fund scale contractions, secondary bond funds accounted for 6 seats. In the top ten list of fund scale growth, secondary bond funds accounted for 7 seats, indicating that funds were inclined to secondary bond funds with a higher risk - return ratio [43][44]. 3.4 From the Perspective of Convertible Bonds: Stable Investment Atmosphere with Balanced Increases and Decreases - In Q1 2025 compared with Q4 2024, the convertible bond positions of funds showed structural adjustments. The top ten increased convertible bonds were mainly in the financial and high - growth sectors, such as Industrial Bank Convertible Bonds (+13.18 billion yuan) and Shanghai United Bank Convertible Bonds (+13.17 billion yuan). The top ten reduced convertible bonds were concentrated in delisted targets, traditional infrastructure, and some financial varieties, such as Bank of Hangzhou Convertible Bonds (-13.82 billion yuan) [46][47]. - Overall, the increase focused on the stability of finance and the elasticity of emerging industries, while the reduction focused on risk clearance and relevant industry changes. The position adjustment reflected that institutions balanced returns and risk exposures through the dual - line strategy of "stable finance + betting on growth" under the expectation of loose liquidity [48].

迈瑞医疗（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 300760） 公司点评 海外市场支撑业绩增长，IVD 成为公司第一大业务 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-05-07 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | | 220.24 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | | 351.60/ | | | | 206.80 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,212 | | | 流通股本（百万股） | | 1,212 | | 流通股比例（%） | | 100.00 | | 总市值（亿元） | | 2,670 | | 流通市值（亿元） | | 2,670 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -40% -24% -7% 10% 26% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 迈瑞医疗 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：谭国超 执业证书号：S0010521120002 邮箱：tangc@hazq.com 分析师：李婵 执业证书号：S00 ...

华大智造（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 688114） 公司点评 2024 年收入平稳增长，国产替代加速 | [Table_Rank] | 投资评级：买入（维持） | | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-05-07 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | | 81.02 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | | 106.66/ | | | | 34.68 | | 总股本（百万股） | | 417 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | 213 | | 流通股比例（%） | | 51.12 | | 总市值（亿元） | | 337 | | 流通市值（亿元） | | 173 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -48% -16% 17% 49% 81% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 5/25 华大智造 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：谭国超 执业证书号：S0010521120002 邮箱：tangc@hazq.com 分析师：李婵 执业证书号：S0010523120002 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 36.726 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.668 billion yuan, up 0.74% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.237 billion yuan, down 12.12% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.629 billion yuan, down 16.81% year-on-year [4][5] - Domestic growth is under pressure, while the overseas market continues to show high growth. In 2024, domestic revenue was approximately 20.29 billion yuan, accounting for about 55.3% of total revenue, down 5.1% year-on-year. Conversely, overseas revenue was about 16.43 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 44.7%, with a year-on-year growth of about 21.3% [5][6] - The in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) segment has become the company's largest business, generating revenue of 13.765 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.82%. The international IVD business grew over 30% year-on-year [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 36.726 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.668 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.74% increase year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 8.237 billion yuan, down 12.12% year-on-year, and net profit was 2.629 billion yuan, down 16.81% year-on-year [4][5][11] Market Dynamics - Domestic revenue faced a decline due to weak hospital equipment procurement and the impact of DRG 2.0. However, recovery is expected in the domestic market by Q3 2025 due to easing fiscal constraints and the initiation of medical equipment upgrade projects [5][6] - The overseas market showed robust growth, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which grew nearly 40% year-on-year, and Europe, which rebounded with over 30% growth [5][6] Business Transformation - The company is accelerating its transition to a more streamlined business model, with IVD becoming the primary revenue driver. The installation of laboratory automation systems and high-speed chemical luminescence instruments has been significant, with nearly 190 systems installed in 2024 [7][8] - The company has established localized production projects in 13 countries, enhancing its international market penetration and supporting growth in the IVD segment [8][9] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 40.928 billion yuan, 48.212 billion yuan, and 56.881 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 11.4%, 17.8%, and 18.0%, respectively. Net profit is projected to reach 13.203 billion yuan, 15.688 billion yuan, and 18.629 billion yuan during the same period [9][11]

华大智造（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 688114） 公司点评 2024 年收入平稳增长，国产替代加速 | [Table_Rank] | 投资评级：买入（维持） | | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-05-07 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | | 81.02 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | | 106.66/ | | | | 34.68 | | 总股本（百万股） | | 417 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | 213 | | 流通股比例（%） | | 51.12 | | 总市值（亿元） | | 337 | | 流通市值（亿元） | | 173 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -48% -16% 17% 49% 81% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 5/25 华大智造 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：谭国超 执业证书号：S0010521120002 邮箱：tangc@hazq.com 分析师：李婵 执业证书号：S0010523120002 ...

机构行为的十大伪规律 报告日期： 2025-05-06 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 专题报告 第四，基金卖出就是"赎回潮"吗？——历史上看未必。由于 2024 年至今是 债券市场的大牛市，但每一次回调都相对快速，利率上行时市场总会产生"赎 回潮"的隐忧，而从数据上看基金也确实是多次行情的主要砸盘力量，但基金 的卖出行为不等于赎回潮，本文提供了两个思路进行辅助证明。 第五，保险都是配置盘吗？——交易盘比重已明显提升。通常我们认为，银行 与保险机构是债券市场中的两大类配置盘，而保险机构的行为又主要以超长 债配置为主，近年来由 30Y 国债逐步转向 30Y 地方债，但研究后我们发现， 2024 年以来保险机构中交易盘的占比已经明显攀升，可通过卖出数据辅以证 明。 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 392 million yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.21%, and for Q1 2025, the net profit was 94 million yuan, up 13.84% year-on-year [4][5] - The company achieved a record high net profit of 120 million yuan in Q4 2024, with a full-year gross margin of 48.34%, slightly down by 1.31 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company has a strong order backlog and is actively expanding production, with significant projects underway, including the construction of a new sealing plant expected to be completed by 2026 [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, and for Q1 2025, revenue was 410 million yuan, up 21.99% year-on-year [6] - The company’s international business revenue reached 200 million yuan in 2024, growing nearly 50% year-on-year, driven by expansion in the overseas mid-to-high-end petrochemical market [6] - The company’s mechanical sealing segment continues to perform well domestically, while the rubber and plastic sealing segment reported revenue of 180 million yuan for the first time [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 predicts revenues of 1.751 billion yuan, 1.960 billion yuan, and 2.201 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 448 million yuan, 502 million yuan, and 560 million yuan [7][8] - The projected diluted EPS for 2025-2027 is 2.15 yuan, 2.41 yuan, and 2.69 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.6, 14.8, and 13.3 [7][8] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic mechanical sealing enterprise, focusing on import substitution in core areas and expanding its international business [7]