[Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 ——债市机构行为周报（6 月第 4 周） 执业证书号：S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 报告日期： 2025-06-22 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 还有哪些债券可以挖掘？ 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com 本周综述： ⚫[Table_Summary] 20Y 行情可能仍未结束，关注老券利差的压缩空间 本周债市平稳运行，但 20Y 与 50Y 表现亮眼。从两个关键期限到期收 益率，10Y 国债与 30Y 国债维持横盘，下行在 1bp 左右，投资者开始转 向市场上仍具性价比的 20Y 与 50Y 期限国债，两类资产单周下行幅度 在 5bp 左右，往后看，还有哪些债券有收益可挖？ 第一，我们认为 20Y 国债的行情可能仍未结束。从 20Y-30Y 的利差来 看，今年是其近 5 年来的高点，2 月下旬约为 12bp，因此压缩有空间， 考虑到 ...

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the accumulation of upward momentum in the A-share market, advocating for a focus on high dividend stocks, sectors supported by economic conditions, and active growth themes [3][4]. Market Overview - The market is expected to experience upward momentum amidst fluctuations, with loose liquidity providing a floor but slow internal growth limiting rapid increases. The overall profit forecast for the A-share market indicates a confirmed improvement trend, which may become a significant force for upward breakthroughs [6][11]. - The report predicts that the overall growth will show a steady decline, with GDP growth expected to reach 5.0% for 2025, with quarterly estimates of 5.4% for Q1 and 4.7% for Q4 [10][11]. Industry Allocation - The report suggests a preference for three main directions in industry allocation: 1. High dividend stocks, particularly in banking and insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved economic conditions and liquidity [4][6]. 2. Sectors supported by economic conditions, including new materials, rare metals, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [4][6]. 3. Active growth themes such as AI and robotics, and military industry, which are anticipated to experience a rebound after initial suppression [4][6]. Economic Analysis - The report highlights the interplay of "slow variables" like consumer behavior and "fast variables" such as exports and real estate, indicating that consumer spending is expected to recover slowly while external demand may weaken [12][19]. - It notes that consumer spending is heavily reliant on government subsidies, with the "old-for-new" policy significantly boosting consumption [20][22]. Export Outlook - The report indicates that global demand is under pressure due to tariff conflicts initiated by the U.S., which may hinder export growth. The forecast for export growth in 2025 has been adjusted to 1.8%, significantly lower than the previous year's 5.9% [46][47]. - It emphasizes the need for China to diversify its export markets and shift towards domestic sales in response to external uncertainties [47][48]. Real Estate Sector - The report discusses the weakening momentum in the real estate sector, with new home sales under pressure and a significant increase in unsold inventory. The forecast for real estate development investment has been revised down to a decline of 9.9% for 2025 [51][60]. - It highlights that the recovery in the real estate market is likely to face challenges without new policy stimuli, as transaction volumes and prices remain under pressure [53][56].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The domestic storage giants, CXMT and YMTC, have both achieved quarterly revenues exceeding 1 billion USD in Q1 2025, marking a significant milestone in breaking the long-standing international monopoly in the storage market [3][12] - The global storage market is expected to reach a scale of 167 billion USD in 2024, with a projected growth of 12% for NAND Flash and 15% for DRAM Bit capacity in 2025, driven by the acceleration of AI server deployments and growth in consumer electronics [18][27] - CXMT is expected to increase its DRAM production capacity by nearly 50% this year, with market share projected to rise from 6% to 8% by year-end [4][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - During the week of June 16 to June 20, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.46% and 0.88%, respectively. The semiconductor sector, represented by the Shenwan Electronics Index, saw a decline of 2.17% [3][29] - The best-performing sector was LED with a decline of 0.46%, while integrated circuit packaging and testing showed a weaker performance with a drop of 3.5% [29] Key Developments in the Industry - CXMT is transitioning its production from DDR4/LPDDR4 to DDR5/LPDDR5, with market shares for DDR5/LPDDR5 expected to rise from approximately 1% to 7% and 9%, respectively [20] - YMTC has successfully achieved mass production of 294-layer 3D NAND and is advancing towards 300-layer NAND development, enhancing its competitive edge in the global market [5][13] Company-Specific Insights - CXMT has become a leader in the domestic DRAM industry, with its production base in Hefei continuously increasing capacity and improving technology to align with international standards [12][19] - The successful emergence of CXMT and YMTC is expected to inspire other domestic storage companies, leading to technological upgrades and development across the entire industry [4][19]

证券研究报告 能源转型：可控核聚变发展加速，助力能源转型 华安证券研究所 张志邦（SAC职业证书号S0010523120004）zhangzhibang@hazq.com 王 璐（SAC职业证书号S0010525040001）wanglu1@hazq.com 2025年6月20日 目录 1.为什么现在关注核聚变？ 2.国内外核聚变行业进展及格局如何？ 2.1国内：科研院所引领，商业公司跟进 2.2国外：美国公司数量领先/技术多元，最早在2028实现聚变能源商业化 3.如何展望行业后续节奏？ 3.1后续展望：核聚变商业化发电时间在2030年代、落地场景多样、存在供给侧约束问题 4.核聚变板块投资机会梳理 4.1核聚变制造端产业链解析 附录：可控核聚变介绍 2 1.1短期有进展：国内外聚变项目招标/融资密集落地，商业/技术进展加快 1.2中期有加速：AI/高端材料等技术创新的带动下，聚变输出功率提升超预期 1.3重要性提升：全球竞赛的重要一环，能源转型的重要导向 1 为什么现在关注核聚变？ 3 1.1 国内外核聚变项目的近期进展 4 国内聚变项目开工/招标/技术进展加速 | 1 | 项目开工建设 | | --- ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 点评报告 机构的持券意愿依然较强 ——5 月交易所及银行间托管数据点评 报告日期： 2025-6-19 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：1317532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 银行配债量创历年"新高"，当前机构持券意愿较强 债市二季度以来整体横盘震荡，5 月以来双降落地后利率小幅上行，10Y 国债到期收益率由 1.62%上行至 1.72%，在此过程中我们发现机构行为存 在两大特点，一是银行配置量创历年新高，二是机构整体持券意愿较强。 第一，银行 5 月配债量创历年"新高"，主要原因在于供给高峰与口径变 化。5 月仍为政府债供给高峰，国债净融资超 9000 亿元，通常在政府债供 给较多时银行主动承接，加大配置实际不是"新鲜事"，可以看到，5 月 商业银行对国债的持有 ...

华安证券研究所 证券研究报告 证券研究报告 证券研究报告 国内大储弱预期有望好转，欧洲大储景气度较高 华安电新 张志邦 SAC职业证书号：S0010523120004 邮箱： zhangzhibang@hazq.com 2025年6月19日 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 证券研究报告 证券研究报告 要点总结 ➢需求侧 • 高ROE市场 ➢供给侧 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 华安证券研究所 • 低ROE市场 • 国内：1）量：25年5月国内装机6.32GW/15.85GWh ；2）先导指标：招标：25年5月国内储能招标规模为6.57GW/20.2GWh ，容量同/环比+84%/-33% . • 印度：1）量：5月底，储能系统装机0.5GWh；2）先导指标：招标：独储25年招标21.52GWh，光储项目招标6.41GWh；3）政策：光伏开启强制配储；4）展望：预计到 2025年Q2有0.5GWh容量并网，印度全年装机超2GWh；5） 2025-26财年印度要求并网4GW/17GWh的电化学储能项目，且不能有任何拖延。 • 量：德国：5月储能装机 ...

D [Table_IndNameRptType] 基础化工 行业周报 合成生物学周报：工信部启动生物制造中试平台计划 ，南林大研发非粮生物基隔热材料 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2025-06-18 主要观点： [Table_Summary] 华安证券化工团队发表的《合成生物学周报》是一份面向一级市场、 二级市场，汇总国内外合成生物学相关领域企业信息的行业周报。 目前生命科学基础前沿研究持续活跃，生物技术革命浪潮席卷全球并 加速融入经济社会发展，为人类应对生命健康、气候变化、资源能源 安全、粮食安全等重大挑战提供了崭新的解决方案。国家发改委印发 《"十四五"生物经济发展规划》,生物经济万亿赛道呼之欲出。 合成生物学指数是华安证券研究所根据上市公司公告等汇总整理由 58 家业务涉及合成生物学及其相关技术应用的上市公司构成并以2020年 10 月 6 日为基准 1000 点，指数涵盖化工、医药、工业、食品、生物 医药等多领域公司。本周（2025/06/09-2025/06/13）华安合成生物学 指数上涨 9.36 个百分点至 1704.01。上证综指下降 0.25%，创业板指 上涨 ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 14th this week, with a slight decline of -0.01%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.24 percentage points and underperforming the ChiNext Index by 0.21 percentage points [3][22]. - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of divergence in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - The chemical sector's performance for the week of June 9-13, 2025, showed a slight decline of -0.01%, ranking 14th among sectors [3][22]. - The top three performing sectors were non-ferrous metals (+3.79%), oil and petrochemicals (+3.5%), and agriculture (+1.62%) [22]. 2. Key Industry Dynamics - Synthetic biology is at a pivotal moment, with low-energy products expected to gain a longer growth window due to the shift in energy structure [4]. - The upcoming quota policy for refrigerants is anticipated to lead to a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants, with demand expected to grow steadily due to market expansion [5]. - The electronic specialty gases market is characterized by high technical barriers and value, presenting significant domestic substitution opportunities [6][8]. - The trend towards light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter raw materials like ethane and propane [8]. - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, driven by supply chain security concerns and the shift of downstream industries to China [9]. - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as major producers reduce output, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [10]. - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand gradually recovers [12]. 3. Company Performance - The top three performing chemical stocks this week were Jinjis Co. (+53.3%), Suzhou Longjie (+18.5%), and Akali (+16.7%) [28]. - The companies to watch in the synthetic biology sector include Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [4]. - Key players in the refrigerant market include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology [5]. - In the electronic specialty gases sector, companies like Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas are recommended [6][8]. - For light hydrocarbon chemicals, Satellite Chemical is highlighted as a key player [8]. - In the COC polymer space, Akali is noted for its potential breakthroughs [9]. - In the potash fertilizer sector, companies such as Yaji International and Salt Lake Co. are recommended [10]. - For MDI, Wanhua Chemical is a key focus due to its significant market share [12].

[T[able Table_IndNameRptType] _IndNameRptType] 2 固定收益 固收周报 [分析师： Table_Author] 胡倩倩 执业证书号：S0010524050004 电话：13391388385 邮箱：huqianqian@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 近期权益市场波动率呈何种走势？ 近期市场波动率有所下降，整体波动率较低。上证 50 与沪深 300 近一个月波 动率均有所下降。A 股整体盘面波动率呈明显周期性特征，不同时间维度的表 现差异显著。市场长期波动率普遍高于短期波动率，近期有小幅度的下降，至 今处于历史低位。 同时小盘、中盘、大盘股的波动率分布类似，但波动率大小呈现显著分化，小 盘股波动率显著高于大盘股。大盘股整体波动率最低，中盘股其次，小盘股整 体波动率最高。此外，不同行业的波动率和行情表现呈现显著分化，高波动率 行业与低波动率行业之间差异显著，以稳健性为代表的银行行业与高风险的 计算机行业波动率差异高达 4.6%。 ⚫ 2023 年至今，可转债市场波动率如何变化？ 波动率下行趋势下，转债市场如何分化？ [Table_In ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 今年个券博弈的五个新规律 ——利率周记（6 月第 3 周） 报告日期： 2025-06-17 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 证券研究报告 [Table_Report] [Table_CompanyRptType] 固收周报 ⚫[Table_Summary] 债市震荡+重交易，关注个券利差变化的三个新特征 今年以来，债市更加重交易。在十年国债 1.65%的背景下，资本利得占综合收 益比例较往年明显增加，债市交易的重要性提升。 在当前震荡市环境下，寻找个券的利差机会被投资者愈加重视。在以往的趋 势性行情中，同一期限段的活跃券、次活跃券以及次次活跃券收益率走势通常 整体大幅变动，其相对利差的变化影响较小，趋势性行情下博 ...