2025 年 04 月 13 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 策略周报 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 关税对 A 股哪些行业影响较大？ 何配置？—策略周报》2025-03-30 2、《科技主线重燃，二次上行可期 —策 略周报》2025-03-09 3、《从关税博弈到 AI+突围—策略周 报》2025-02-23 4、《市场情绪持续回暖，春季躁动有望 延续 —策略周报》2025-02-16 5、《春节国内外大事速递—策略点评》 2025-02-05 投资要点 分析师：郝一凡 通过（对美出口 / 总出口）*（出口收入 / 总收入）这一公式来测算各行 业对美出口的依赖程度，结果显示 A 股申万一级子行业中，家电、电子、轻工 制造、机械设备、纺织服饰等行业受到美国关税影响程度较大，这些行业的出 口业务对美国市场的依赖程度较高，若美国关税政策持续，相关行业 ...

异常波动 | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=601952&announcementId=122303 | 601952 | 苏垦农发 | 0032&orgId=9900030581&announcementTime=2025 | -04-09 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=601933&announcementId=122303 | 601933 | 永辉超市 | 0028&orgId=9900016367&announcementTime=2025 | -04-09 | | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=600965&announcementId=122303 | 600965 | 福成股份 | 0022&orgId=gssh0600965&announcementTi ...

2025 年 04 月 10 日 证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 历史重现却未重演 两轮关税周期下的美元异动之谜 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话： 021-20515355 相关研究报告 投资要点 分析师：郝一凡 本轮美国加征关税剑指全球，覆盖中国及全球 180 多个国家，同时幅度从 10%到 50%不等，打击广度和政策烈度均远超市场预期，导致经济冲击的逻辑 发生逆转：一方面全球关税累积的负面效应直接冲击美国经济，另一方面美国 与原先各个贸易对手之间替代贸易的可能性降低，从而导致美国经济本身遭受 更大的损害。 而美国经济走弱预期也促使投资者押注美联储将提前降息，美债对欧债的利 差减小，美元指数震荡下行。当美国关税大棒无差别挥向全球时，美国货币霸 权基石率先开始自我反噬。 风险提示：经济修复不及预期的风险，政策效果不及预期的风险，地缘风 险，海外经济衰退风险，外 ...

| 新股发行及今日交易提示 | 2025/4/10 | 星期四 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/10 | 内地市场权益提示 | 类别 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 权益日期 | 最新公告链接 | | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=601028&announcementId=122303 | 现金选择权 | 601028 | 玉龙股份 | 现金选择权申报期 | ：2025年4月17日至2025年4月23日 | 1697&orgId=9900021563&announcementTime=2025 | -04-09 | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=600777&announcementId=122299 | 要约收购 | 600777 | ST新潮 | 要约申报期：2025年4月8日至2025年5月7日 | 2722&orgId ...

2025 年 04 月 09 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金月报 关税扰动加剧，基金组合如何应对？ 基金配置策略报告（2025 年 4 月期） 分析师：孙书娜 分析师登记编码：S0890523070001 电话：021-20321306 邮箱：sunshuna@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522090001 电话：021-20321067 邮箱：wanghua@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524070001 电话：021-20321079 邮箱：fengsishi@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524040001 电话：021-20321096 邮箱：guxin@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 金配置策略报告（2025 年 3 月期）》 2025-03-13 （2025 年 2 月期）》2025-02-10 3、《政策真空期更为谨慎，债牛未尽 更防波动—基金配置策略报告（2025 年 1 月期）》2025-01-10 销售服务电话： 纯债型基金——尽管在目前利率已在相对低位，但在外部扰动加剧、国内基本面修复形势 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the grid trading strategy as a method to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [3][15] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include selecting on-market assets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly appropriate [3][15] Group 2 - The report highlights the focus on specific ETFs for grid trading, including the National Defense ETF (512670.SH), which benefits from China's strengthening military capabilities and ongoing innovations in defense technology [5][16] - The Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (159333.SZ) is noted for its high dividend yield, supported by government policies encouraging long-term capital investment and stable dividend mechanisms [6][19] - The National Goods ETF (561130.SH) aligns with government initiatives to boost consumption, focusing on domestic brands and sectors benefiting from consumer upgrades [7][20] - The Morgan MSCI ETF (515770.SH) is positioned as a tool for global investors to access Chinese core assets, reflecting the current economic cycle and policy advantages in China [9][24]

| 新股发行及今日交易提示 | 2025/4/9 | 星期三 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/9 | 新股上市 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 发行价格 | | | | | | | | 603210 | 泰鸿万立 | 8.60 | 2025/4/9 | 内地市场权益提示 | | | | | | | | 类别 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 权益日期 | 最新公告链接 | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=601028&announcementId=122303 | 现金选择权 | 601028 | 玉龙股份 | 现金选择权申报期 | ：2025年4月17日至2025年4月23日 | | 1697&orgId=9900021563&announcementTime=2025 | -04-09 | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/d ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "reciprocal tariff" announced by Trump this week led to significant fluctuations in the global market, with the A-share market also declining. The Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy continued to accumulate excess returns, and the defensive view in the strategy was verified [2]. - The recommended order of quantitative strategy allocation is Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy > Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy. For A-shares, a neutral and cautious attitude is maintained in the short and medium term, and a defensive allocation is recommended. For overseas markets, investors with low overseas positions can appropriately deploy at the bottom, and the long - term upward trend of US stocks is still optimistic [3]. - The Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Strategy had a small correction this week, with a return of -0.626%, showing low - volatility defensive attributes and still being worthy of allocation. The Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy closed down this week, with a return of -1.215%, and its excess performance needs to wait [4]. - The Cash Enhancement Fund Strategy achieved a return of 0.027% this week, outperforming the benchmark. The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy closed down this week, with a return of -1.537%. In the long - term, the globalization investment still has strong diversification allocation value [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Tool - based Fund Portfolio Construction Ideas - For active equity funds, a low - volatility fund portfolio strategy is constructed to meet the defensive needs of investors in high - risk markets and the needs of investors with moderate risk preferences. An equity fund portfolio strategy with similar risk - volatility characteristics to the benchmark index is constructed to provide a more offensive choice for investors with high risk preferences [11]. - For money funds, a money fund screening system is built to help investors optimize short - term idle funds. For QDII funds, an overseas market selected portfolio is constructed to meet the needs of global asset allocation [12]. 1.1. Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio - The strategy aims to select funds with long - term stable returns in high - equity - position actively managed funds. By considering the maximum drawdown, volatility, and valuation of funds, a low - volatility active equity fund portfolio is constructed [13]. 1.2. Equity Fund Enhancement Portfolio - The strategy aims to meet the needs of equity fund investors with different risk preferences. By analyzing the source of fund returns and constructing a portfolio based on the continuity of Alpha returns, it provides an offensive choice for high - risk - preference investors [14]. 1.3. Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio - A money fund screening system is constructed by considering multiple factors such as management fees, duration, and institutional holding ratio, to help investors optimize short - term idle funds [15]. 1.4. Overseas Equity Allocation Portfolio - Based on long - and short - term technical indicators, an overseas market selected portfolio is constructed by screening equity indices of multiple countries or regions, meeting the needs of investors for global asset allocation [12]. 2. Tool - based Fund Portfolio Performance Tracking | Strategy | This Week Return | Last Month Return | YTD Return | Return Since Strategy Inception | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Strategy | -0.626% | 1.388% | 0.718% | 8.582% | | Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy | -1.215% | 1.027% | 1.668% | 9.332% | | Cash Enhancement Fund Strategy | 0.027% | 0.141% | 0.433% | 3.320% | | Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy | -1.537% | -2.786% | -1.097% | 23.104% | [17] 2.1. Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio - The portfolio has long - term low - volatility characteristics, with significantly better volatility and maximum drawdown than the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. It has achieved significant excess returns and has both defensive and offensive capabilities [19][20]. 2.2. Equity Fund Enhancement Portfolio - Since the strategy has been running for a short time, its performance is close to the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. It is expected to have stronger elasticity when the market environment improves [22]. 2.3. Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio - After double screening of risk elimination and scoring, the portfolio has continuously outperformed the benchmark, and the cumulative excess return since July 2023 has exceeded 0.29% [26]. 2.4. Overseas Equity Allocation Portfolio - Since July 31, 2023, the portfolio has accumulated high - level excess returns, and global allocation can increase the return of the equity investment portfolio [27].

| 新股发行及今日交易提示 | 2025/4/8 | 星期二 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/8 | 新股发行 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 发行价格 | | | | 301662 | 宏工科技 | 26.60 | 2025/4/8 | 新股上市 | | | | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 发行价格 | 603257 | 中国瑞林 | 20.52 | | | 2025/4/8 | 内地市场权益提示 | 类别 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 权益日期 | 最新公告链接 | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=600777&announcementId=122299 | 要约收购 | 600777 | ST新潮 | 要约申报期：2025年4月8日至2025年5月7日 | 2722&orgId=gssh0600777&announcementTime=2025 | -04-03 | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/ne ...

hjn 2025 年 04 月 07 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 ETF 策略指数跟踪周报 2025/4/7 分析师：卫以诺 分析师登记编码：S0890518120001 电话：021-20321014 邮箱：weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 1、《常青低波策略逆市获正收益，海外避 险情绪或近尾声—公募基金量化遴选类 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （ 2025.03.30 ）》 2025-04-01 2、《ETF策略指数跟踪周报—2025/3/31》 2025-03-31 3、《常青低波策略占优，海外权益企稳反 弹—公募基金量化遴选类策略指数跟踪 周报（2025.03.23）》2025-03-25 2025-03-24 2025-03-18 投资要点 分析师：程秉哲 华宝研究大小盘轮动 ETF 策略指数：华宝研究大小盘轮动 ETF 策略指数利用 多维度技术指标因子，采用机器学习模型对申万大盘指数和申万小盘指数的收 益差进行预测 ...