2025 年 03 月 05 日 证券研究报告 | 市场点评报告 政府工作报告的三条重要线索 2025 年两会政府工作报告点评 分析师：蔡梦苑 分析师登记编码：S0890521120001 电话：021-20321004 邮箱：caimengyuan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 1、《中长期资金从哪来、有多少、到哪 去？—资本市场政策点评》2025-01-23 2、《政策"组合拳"出台，权益迎反弹、 债 市 需 休 整 — 金 融 政 策 点 评 》 2024-09-24 投资要点 此次政府工作报告重点突出了三条政策线索： 1、在总量方面展示出宏观政策更加积极有为的态度，突出了提质效，且根据 形势变化动态调整政策的特征。 分析师：郝一凡 2、应对当前经济面临的内外部压力和挑战，我国后续经济增长的三大"破局" 方向：内需消费、科技创新、改革开放。 风险提示：经济修复不及预期的风险，政策效果不及预期的风险，地缘风险， 海外衰退风险，外部政策不确定性风险。 敬请 ...

Market Performance - The equity market experienced a decline of 2.53% overall for the week, with the CSI Active Equity Fund Index dropping by 2.70%[2] - The Changqing Low Volatility strategy showed resilience, only decreasing by 1.13%, effectively reducing portfolio volatility during market fluctuations[2] Strategy Recommendations - The recommended strategy hierarchy is: Changqing Low Volatility Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy > Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy[3] - Despite short-term caution in the A-share market, the long-term investment logic in dividend-related defensive sectors remains unchanged, suggesting high cost-effectiveness post-correction[3] Fund Performance - The Changqing Low Volatility Fund Strategy recorded a weekly return of -1.127%, outperforming its benchmark by 1.572%[5] - The Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy saw a return of -1.253%, indicating a smaller drawdown compared to previous strong-performing sectors[6] Overseas Market Insights - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy reported a decline of -2.217%, influenced by high volatility in the U.S. stock market due to various risk factors[7] - Despite short-term uncertainties, the long-term outlook for U.S. stocks remains positive, driven by technological advancements and economic stability[4] Cash Management - The Cash Growth Fund Strategy achieved a return of 0.032%, consistently outperforming the benchmark CSI Money Market Fund Index[7] - Cumulatively, the Cash Growth Fund has generated an excess return of 0.352% since its inception[7]

2025 年 03 月 02 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 "两会行情"来临，如何应对？ 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 | | | 1、《春季躁动已至，科技领衔 —策略周 报》2025-02-09 2、《当"春季躁动"遇上特朗普就任 — 策略周报》2025-01-19 3、《市场情绪转弱，防守待反击 —策略 周报》2025-01-05 4、《成交量延续回落，再回"哑铃型" 配置 —策略周报》2024-12-29 5、《政策博弈暂歇，静待扩内需政策加 码—策略周报》2024-12-22 投资要点 2025 年"春季躁动"行情中科技成长风格引领市场走强，但随着两会临近，市 场内部或迎来阶段性的风格切换。从"两会"行情的季节性特征看，从成长向稳定 风格切换的概率较高，两会后"科技行情"仍有望再度上行。 分析师：刘芳 结合当前情况来看，2 ...

2025 年 02 月 25 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 互联网财报再燃权益热情，美国再起经济衰退担忧 公募基金量化遴选类策略指数跟踪周报（2025.02.23） 分析师：李亭函 分析师登记编码：S0890519080001 电话：021-20321017 邮箱：litinghan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524110001 电话：021-20321391 邮箱：huanghao@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话： 021-20515355 相关研究报告 2025/2/21》2025-02-24 2、《如何利用港股基金增强哑铃型配 置？—金融产品观察》2025-02-19 3、《常青低波优势初显，关注低波策略 短期抗风险优势—公募基金量化遴选类 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （ 2025.02.16 ）》 2025-02-18 4 、《 ETF 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 — 2025/2/14》2025-02-17 5、《AI 大模型点燃"春季攻势"，热情 高涨后低波板块性价比显现—公募基金 量 化 遴 选 类 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 投资要点 分 ...

2025 年 02 月 23 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 从关税博弈到 AI+突围 策略周报 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 1、《市场情绪持续回暖，春季躁动有望 延续 —策略周报》2025-02-16 2、《春节国内外大事速递—策略点评》 2025-02-05 3、《情绪延续降温，静待市场企稳 —策 略周报》2025-01-12 4、《政策继续发力，市场活力进一步释 放—策略周报》2024-10-27 投资要点 分析师：郝一凡 2 月 21 日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰应约与美国财长贝森特 举行视频通话。双方均表示愿意继续就贸易问题进行沟通，显示出一定的谈判意 愿。预计在 4 月 1 日美国发布相关贸易调查报告之前，关税政策的实施节奏或较为 缓和。双方或维持"谈判试探+局部施压"的策略，对华快速上调关税的概率较 低，风险相对可控 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the effectiveness of grid trading strategies in volatile markets, allowing investors to capitalize on price fluctuations without predicting market trends [3][12] - It identifies equity ETFs as suitable instruments for grid trading due to their liquidity, low transaction costs, and significant price volatility [3][12] Group 1: Grid Trading Strategy Overview - Grid trading is characterized as a high buy-low-sell strategy that leverages natural price fluctuations within a defined range to generate profits [3][12] - The report outlines the ideal characteristics for assets suitable for grid trading, including being exchange-traded, having stable long-term trends, low trading costs, good liquidity, and high volatility [3][12] Group 2: ETF Grid Strategy Target Analysis - The military industry ETF (512660.SH) is highlighted, noting significant advancements in China's military capabilities during the 14th Five-Year Plan, including breakthroughs in aircraft and shipbuilding, indicating strong mid- to long-term investment potential [5][13] - The photovoltaic ETF (515790.SH) reports a record high of 277.17 GW in new installations for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 28%, suggesting a recovery in sentiment and valuation in the sector [6][15] - The Southeast Asia Technology ETF (513730.SZ) tracks major tech companies in Southeast Asia, with the region expected to be one of the fastest-growing economies globally over the next five years, benefiting from a youthful demographic and supply chain advantages [7][16] - The French CAC 40 ETF (513080.SH) is noted for its attractive valuation at a PE-TTM of 22.1, compared to 29.94 for the S&P 500, making it a viable option for investors seeking exposure to European blue-chip stocks [8][19]

Group 1 - The report highlights the short-term risk resistance advantage of low-volatility strategies, particularly the Changqing Low-Volatility Fund strategy, which has shown strong performance in a volatile market environment [3][4][6] - The report indicates that the U.S. stock market is currently influenced by inflation-related economic data and tariff policies, with the Nasdaq 100 futures reaching new highs [3][5] - The report suggests a cautious stance on the A-share market in the short to medium term, while recommending a shift from high-volatility strategies to low-volatility strategies due to better cost-effectiveness [4][6] Group 2 - The Changqing Low-Volatility Fund strategy recorded a positive return of 1.338% this week, demonstrating strong stability and performance amid market fluctuations [6][17] - The report notes that the Cash Growth Fund strategy achieved a return of 0.032%, outperforming the benchmark, indicating effective cash management [7][24] - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund strategy has accumulated significant excess returns since its inception, benefiting from the global technology sector's growth and the Fed's interest rate policies [7][26]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the equity market experienced a recovery after a sharp decline at the beginning of January 2025, with small-cap technology growth stocks becoming market hotspots [3][11][14] - The report highlights that the market sentiment improved slightly due to the release of economic data and supportive policies, although the A-share market did not fully recover from the initial drop by the end of January [3][11] - The report notes that the commodity market showed significant rebound in January, driven by geopolitical tensions and policy changes, particularly in the energy sector [3][11][12] Group 2 - The report states that the market environment is currently suitable for quantitative strategies, although the concentration of market hotspots may negatively impact alpha strategies [4][14] - It mentions that the trading concentration in the market has reached historical extremes, which may hinder the performance of diversified investment strategies [4][24] - The report suggests that the current market conditions may be a good time for profit-taking, while those optimistic about future equity market trends may consider holding positions [4][14] Group 3 - The report provides performance statistics for various public quantitative funds, indicating that the strict constraint type funds in the CSI 500 index had a monthly excess return of 1.67% in January 2025 [48][53] - It highlights that the smart beta type funds in the CSI 500 index achieved a monthly excess return of 1.75%, while the rotation type funds had a lower excess return of 1.41% [48][53] - The report also details the performance of the CSI 300 index enhanced products, with a monthly excess return of 1.04% for strict constraint type funds [48][52]

2025 年 02 月 11 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 AI 大模型点燃"春季攻势" ，热情高涨后低波板块 性价比显现 公募基金量化遴选类策略指数跟踪周报（2025.02.09） 分析师：李亭函 分析师登记编码：S0890519080001 电话：021-20321017 邮箱：litinghan@cnhbstock.com 分析师：黄浩 分析师登记编码：S0890524110001 电话：021-20321391 邮箱：huanghao@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话： 021-20515355 1、《DeepSeek 概念火热，基金投资有 哪些机遇—金融产品观察》2025-02-10 2 、《 ETF 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 — 2025/2/7》2025-02-10 3 、《 ETF 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 — 2025/1/27》2025-02-05 4、《权益市场企稳反弹，持续关注布局 中长期机会—公募基金量化遴选类策略 指数跟踪周报（2025.01.19）》2025-01- 21 5 、《 ETF 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 — 2025/1/17》2025 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the arrival of the "spring rally," led by technology and small-cap stocks, with expectations for continued market recovery in early February [3][7]. - The A-share market showed a significant increase in trading activity, with average daily turnover rising to 16,157 billion, an increase of 4,880 billion compared to the pre-holiday period [3][7]. - The AI+ sector has emerged as a leading force in the stock market, driven by the recent Deepseek event, indicating strong short-term opportunities in technology, robotics, TMT, and related concepts [3][7]. Group 2 - The report notes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has declined, which is favorable for global equity market valuations [3][7]. - The manufacturing PMI in January showed a decline, indicating ongoing issues with domestic demand that need to be addressed [3][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming U.S. CPI data on February 12, as lower inflation could boost expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, positively impacting global equity valuations [18].