证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 03 月 12 日 投资要点 分析师：李兴 执业编号：S0300518100001 电话：010-83755576 邮箱：lixing@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250312 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数下跌。截止收盘，沪指跌 0.23%，收报 3371.92 点；深证成指跌 0.17%，收报 10843.23 点；科创 50 跌 0.73%，收报 1092.71 点；创业板指跌 0.58%，收报 2191.27 点。总体上，全天个股涨跌各 半，Wind 数据显示，全市场 2625 只个股上涨，2557 只个股下跌，210 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 16838 亿元，与上个交易日相较放量 2018.17 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨跌各半，传媒、通信、计算机、建筑装 饰、环保等行业涨幅靠前；美容护理、煤炭、食品饮料、建筑材料、农林牧 渔等行业跌幅靠前。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为华鲲振宇、智能交通、网络游戏、 IDC（算力租赁）、车路云、虚拟电厂、华为鲲鹏、黄金珠宝、特高压、高速 铜连接、充 ...

Development Stages of Special Bonds - Special bonds have undergone four main stages since their inception in 2015: exploration (2015-2018), innovation and expansion (2019-2021), transformation and regulation (2022-2024), and optimization and improvement (from late 2024) [3][4][6][18]. - In the innovation and expansion phase (2019-2021), the issuance of special bonds rapidly increased, with new quotas rising from CNY 1.35 trillion in 2018 to CNY 3.75 trillion in 2020 [25][26]. Current Characteristics and Usage - As of 2024, 40.5% of special bonds were allocated for new project construction, while 40.4% were used for debt replacement, and 19.2% for repaying maturing bonds [7]. - The proportion of special bonds used as project capital has been increasing, reaching 9.8% in 2024, with a policy cap of 30% [7]. Challenges and Issues - Special bonds have faced issues such as unclear positioning, with projects lacking revenue being funded by general debt, while high-revenue projects are left to market mechanisms [9]. - The allocation of special bond quotas often reflects the distribution of hidden debts rather than efficiency, which undermines the intended positive incentives [9]. Recommendations for Improvement - It is recommended to clarify the positioning of special bonds to ensure they are used for projects that can cover their own costs, thus preventing pressure on general public budgets [13]. - The distribution of quotas should prioritize high-quality projects in regions with population inflows and strong industrial bases, while using general debt for areas with declining populations [13].

Fiscal Policy Overview - The fiscal policy for 2025 is more proactive, with a deficit rate reaching approximately 4%, the highest since the implementation of active fiscal policies in 2008, reflecting a strong commitment to economic recovery[2] - The total deficit scale is set at 5.66 trillion, significantly higher than last year's 1.6 trillion, indicating a substantial increase in fiscal spending[2] - Special bonds are planned at 4.4 trillion, exceeding last year's 500 billion, while the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds will increase to 1.3 trillion, up from 300 billion last year[2] Economic Impact - The increase in the deficit, special bonds, and ultra-long bonds collectively amounts to 11.86 trillion, surpassing last year's total of 8.96 trillion by 2.9 trillion, indicating a robust fiscal stimulus[2] - The 1.3 trillion ultra-long bonds, 500 billion special bonds, and 4.4 trillion special bonds correspond to an increase in the deficit rate by 0.9, 0.4, and 3.1 percentage points respectively, leading to an overall deficit rate of 8.4% for 2025, higher than last year's 6.6%[2] Policy Objectives - The proactive fiscal policy aims to expand total demand, optimize supply structure, stabilize expectations, and mitigate economic risks, particularly in real estate and finance[3] - The government emphasizes the importance of enhancing transfer payments to local governments, ensuring basic public services, and alleviating fiscal pressures at the grassroots level[12] Structural Reforms - The report highlights the need for deepening fiscal and tax reforms, including zero-based budgeting and consumption tax reforms, to improve fiscal efficiency and support high-quality development[16] - The focus on optimizing fiscal expenditure structure aims to increase efficiency and effectiveness, with a notable rise in spending on healthcare, education, and social security, which accounted for 39.7% of the general public budget in 2024, up 4.4 percentage points from 2013[14]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 03 月 05 日 投资要点 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】政府工作报告释放的九大信 号》2025-03-05 《【粤开宏观】2025 开局之变：中国经济 新叙事与资产重估》2025-03-02 《【粤开宏观】贸易摩擦如何影响资本市 场？—"特朗普 1.0 时期"的 A 股走势复 盘及启示》2025-02-23 《【粤开宏观】2024 年中国区域经济版图： 西部领跑、东部遇阻》2025-02-16 《【粤开宏观】1949-2024 年中国各省份财 政收入排名变迁》2025-02-11 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】2025 年财政更加积极： 赤字率首次达到 4%，发展优先 摘要 财政政策的基调延续了中央政治局会议、中央经济工作会议的提法，较去年 《政府工作报告》财政政策基调更加积极，体现在力度更大、节奏更快、方 式更多、结构更优、与市场的沟通更顺、政策间的协同性更高，将发展置于 更高的位置。同时，强调要深化财税制度改革，推动零基预算改革，推动消 费税 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 03 月 02 日 投资要点 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：马家进 执业编号：S0300522110002 电话：13645711472 邮箱：majiajin@ykzq.com 分析师：原野 执业编号：S0300523070001 电话：15810120201 邮箱：yuanye_zb@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】贸易摩擦如何影响资本市 场？—"特朗普 1.0 时期"的 A 股走势复 盘及启示》2025-02-23 《【粤开宏观】2024 年中国区域经济版图： 西部领跑、东部遇阻》2025-02-16 《【粤开宏观】1949-2024 年中国各省份财 政收入排名变迁》2025-02-11 《【粤开宏观】美国制造业回流：效果和展 望》2025-02-09 《【粤开宏观】2025 年地方政府怎么干？ 目标与抓手》2025-02-04 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】2025 开局之变：中国经 济新叙事与资产重估 导读 2025 年伊始，中国经济经历了深刻叙 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 02 月 23 日 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：原野 执业编号：S0300523070001 电话：15810120201 邮箱：yuanye_zb@ykzq.com 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】2024 年中国区域经济版图： 西部领跑、东部遇阻》2025-02-16 《【粤开宏观】1949-2024 年中国各省份 财政收入排名变迁》2025-02-11 《【粤开宏观】美国制造业回流：效果和 展望》2025-02-09 《【粤开宏观】2025 年地方政府怎么干？ 目标与抓手》2025-02-04 《【粤开宏观】特朗普打响"加征关税 2.0" 第一枪：原因、影响、推演及应对》 2025-02-02 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】贸易摩擦如何影响资本 市场？—"特朗普 1.0 时期"的 A 股 走势复盘及启示 摘要： 2025 年 1 月 20 日特朗普再度出任美国 ...

GDP Overview - In 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.0%, surpassing the US growth rate of 2.8%[1] - The nominal GDP reached 134.9 trillion CNY (approximately 18.94 trillion USD), accounting for 64.9% of the US GDP, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from 2023[1] - The top seven economic provinces contributed 51.5% of the national GDP increment, with Guangdong leading at over 14 trillion CNY[2][15] Regional Economic Performance - The western region outperformed others with a GDP growth rate of 4.8%, while the eastern region faced challenges with a growth rate of only 2.7%[6][14] - In 2024, 22 provinces achieved a GDP growth rate above 5%, with Tibet and Xinjiang leading at 6.3% and 6.1% respectively[3][22] - The economic structure showed a "south rising, north declining" trend, with southern provinces increasing their GDP share to 64.8%[6][36] Fiscal Revenue Insights - In 2024, 26 provinces reported positive growth in general public budget revenue, with a national increase of 1.3%[4][29] - Non-tax revenue saw significant growth, with provinces like Jilin and Inner Mongolia reporting increases of 35.7% and 24.7% respectively[5][34] - The fiscal revenue growth was uneven, with western provinces generally performing better than eastern and central regions[5][30] Industrial and Demand Structure - The contribution of the secondary industry to GDP growth increased, with industrial growth driving a 1.7 percentage point increase in actual GDP growth[7] - Consumer spending showed a decline, particularly in high-tier cities, while lower-tier cities experienced stronger growth[9] - Investment in manufacturing remained stable, but high-risk provinces faced weaker investment due to debt concerns[9][30]

Market Overview - The A-share major indices mostly closed higher today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.43% at 3346.72 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.16% to 10749.46 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 17150 billion, a decrease of 1047.9 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as computer, pharmaceutical biology, media, telecommunications, automotive, and electric equipment led the gains, while real estate, building materials, comprehensive, retail, steel, and textile sectors experienced declines [1] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included medical payment reform, medical services, cloud computing, CRO, animal health, big data, domestic software and hardware, cybersecurity, digital government, genetic testing, Huawei Kunpeng, data security, financial and tax digitalization, and medical devices [2]

Fiscal Revenue Growth - In 2024, national general public budget revenue grew by 1.3% year-on-year, while local general public budget revenue increased by 1.7%[1] - The growth rates for fiscal revenue in different regions were: Northeast (6.2%), West (3.2%), Central (1.8%), and East (0.8%)[9] Regional Disparities - Western provinces showed faster fiscal revenue growth compared to Eastern and Central regions, driven by the importance of energy security and the Belt and Road Initiative[2] - In 2024, the top five provinces by fiscal revenue were Guangdong (13,533 billion), Jiangsu (10,038 billion), Zhejiang (8,706 billion), Shanghai (8,374 billion), and Shandong (7,711 billion)[10] Economic Challenges - The slowdown in fiscal revenue growth is attributed to insufficient effective demand, price declines, and tax incentives in the real estate sector[1] - Multiple provinces experienced negative growth in VAT and corporate income tax revenues due to various economic pressures, including declining industrial profits and resource tax revenues[1] Historical Context - Since 1949, China's fiscal revenue has evolved significantly, with major changes occurring post-1978 and 1994 due to reforms in the fiscal system[2] - The fiscal revenue ranking has shifted, with Guangdong maintaining the top position for 34 consecutive years, reaching 1.35 trillion in 2024 despite challenges[7] Future Outlook - A more proactive fiscal policy is anticipated for 2025 to address ongoing economic uncertainties and structural tax reductions[1] - The long-term effects of incremental policy changes are expected to gradually enhance fiscal revenue potential and stabilize local finances[1]

最近一年行业相对走势 资料来源：聚源 -31% -22% -14% -5% 4% 13% 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/08 医药生物 沪深300 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 2024 年 2 月 11 日 投资要点 分析师：李兴 执业编号：S0300518100001 电话：010-83755576 邮箱：lixing@ykzq.com 研究助理：刘莎 电话：15625156877 邮箱：liusha@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开医药】看好创新升级、并购重组 与产业出海——医药行业 2025 年展望》 2025-01-13 《【粤开医药】整体承压，局部分化—— 医药行业 2024 年回顾》2025-01-12 《【粤开医药】优化商业健康保险对创新 药的支付——医保数据共享是关键》 2024-12-08 医药生物 【粤开医药】从摩根大通医疗健康大 会看生物创新药管线：关注 ADC、 双特异性抗体、细胞与基因治疗 2025 年第四十三届摩根大通医疗健康年会（JPM 大会）盛大召开。国内百济 神州、恒瑞医药、信达生物、康方生物等约 30 家企业参会，分享了多个重 磅品种最新成果，中 ...