Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce announced preliminary findings of a countervailing investigation against imported dairy products from the EU, confirming that these products are subsidized and have caused substantial harm to the domestic dairy industry in China. A temporary countervailing duty will be implemented starting December 23, 2025 [2][4]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Ministry of Commerce's announcement (Document No. 83 of 2025) revealed that imported dairy products from the EU are subsidized, leading to significant harm to the domestic dairy industry. The State Council Tariff Commission will impose temporary countervailing duties starting December 23, 2025 [4]. Event Commentary - The countervailing investigation was initiated following a request from the China Dairy Industry Association and the China Dairy Products Industry Association in July 2024. The investigation confirmed that the subsidization of EU dairy products has resulted in increased inventory and a shift from profit to loss for domestic producers. The subsidy rates for sampled companies ranged from 21.9% to 42.7% [4]. Market Opportunities - The reliance on EU imports for various dairy products presents opportunities for domestic alternatives. In 2024, the B-end market for cheese, cream, and butter is projected to reach approximately 27.4 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 13.6% over the past decade. Key recommended companies include Miaokelando, Yili, Mengniu, New Dairy, and Lihai Foods [4]. Raw Milk Price Outlook - There is an expectation for a turning point in raw milk prices, as domestic fresh milk prices have decreased significantly while international prices for bulk powder have shown an upward trend. The supply-demand balance for raw milk is anticipated to stabilize by 2026, with recommendations for companies like Youran Dairy and Modern Dairy [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10] Core Insights - The company has recently won the bid for duty-free store projects at Shanghai Pudong International Airport and Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport, which is expected to enhance profit-sharing and operational efficiency [2][6] - The new revenue model includes a base fee plus a commission structure, which is rationalized, indicating potential profitability for the operating entities [2][8] - The company is positioned as a leader in China's duty-free industry, with significant competitive advantages accumulated over 40 years, including channel access, scale, and refined operational management [2][8] Summary by Sections Event Description - The company’s subsidiary has received a bid notification confirming the award for duty-free operations at two major airports in Shanghai, with a total operational area of approximately 12,101.53 square meters [6][7] - The investment structure involves a joint venture with a 51% stake held by the company and a 49% stake by Shanghai Airport, with a total investment of 102 million yuan [6][7] Revenue Model - The operational transfer period follows a "5+3" model, with a fixed monthly fee and a commission based on actual sales, ensuring a stable revenue stream [7] - The fixed fees are set at 3,090 yuan/m²/month for Pudong Airport and 2,827 yuan/m²/month for Hongqiao Airport, with commission rates ranging from 8% to 24% [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in sales as outbound travel increases, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 3.69 billion, 4.27 billion, and 4.97 billion yuan respectively [2][8] - The company maintains a strong competitive position in the duty-free market, with anticipated growth in sales driven by increased passenger traffic at airports [2][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7]. Core Insights - The non-bank sector has shown strong performance this week, with notable developments in the brokerage sector, including the merger plans of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing and Xinda, indicating a further acceleration of supply-side reforms in the industry. The insurance sector is also seeing regulatory advancements with the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) seeking public opinion on the draft asset-liability management guidelines for insurance companies. The report suggests that the long-term outlook is positive, with improved return on equity (ROE) and valuation recovery expected, making the sector increasingly attractive for investment [2][4]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates, such as Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, which have strong market positions and business models. Additionally, it highlights companies like New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on their earnings elasticity and valuation levels [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 2.9% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.2%. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index is up 9.8%, but underperformed the CSI 300 by 6.3% [5]. - The average daily trading volume in the market decreased to 17,604.84 billion yuan, down 9.86% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 1.83%, down 19.91 basis points [5]. Industry News and Company Announcements - Key announcements include the merger plans of CICC with Dongxing and Xinda, and the CBIRC's public consultation on insurance asset-liability management guidelines. The report also notes the upcoming dividend announcements from Huaxi Securities, CICC, and Shenwan Hongyuan [6][19]. Insurance Sector Insights - In October 2025, the cumulative insurance premium income reached 548.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.99%. Life insurance premiums grew by 9.56%, while property insurance premiums increased by 4.02% [23][24]. - The total assets of insurance companies reached 40.59 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies holding 35.68 trillion yuan, reflecting a 0.68% increase [27][28]. Brokerage Sector Insights - The report highlights a decline in the overall equity market, with the CSI 300 index down 0.28% and the ChiNext index down 2.26%. The brokerage sector's investment assets are primarily in bonds, with equity investments comprising about 10%-30% [40][46]. - Margin trading balances decreased to 2.50 trillion yuan, down 0.34% week-on-week, indicating a cautious approach to stock pledge business due to previous credit risks [49]. Financing and Asset Management - In November 2025, equity financing reached 50.65 billion yuan, while bond financing totaled 706 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in financing activities [53]. - The report notes a rebound in the issuance of collective asset management products, with 4.387 billion units issued in November, up 4.1% from the previous month [55].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the mechanical industry is "Positive" and is maintained [10]. Core Insights - The mechanical index saw a significant increase of 35.3% from the beginning of the year to the end of October 2025, primarily driven by valuation multiple expansion rather than profit growth [5][22]. - The performance of thematic sectors in the mechanical industry is largely in line with traditional sectors, but the valuation level of thematic sectors has increased significantly more than that of traditional sectors [5][24]. - For 2026, the focus will be on overseas demand and domestic pricing, with three main investment themes identified: global competitiveness and capital expenditure, valuation-driven sector rotation, and emerging industries such as AI and humanoid robots [5][38]. Summary by Sections Review of 2025 - The mechanical index's growth was mainly due to a 22% increase in PE multiples, rising from 28.2 to 34.4, while profits grew by nearly 15% year-on-year [22][29]. - Key factors for exceeding performance expectations included overseas demand driven by trends in AI, natural gas spending in the Middle East, and infrastructure cycles abroad [29][30]. Investment Strategy 1: Global Competitiveness and External Demand Elasticity - China's manufacturing competitiveness is steadily improving, with significant opportunities for equipment exports supported by global capital expenditure increases due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [6][38]. - The tool industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in the U.S. real estate sector, while the engineering machinery sector is anticipated to see upward resonance in both domestic and overseas markets [6][38]. Investment Strategy 2: Valuation-Driven Sector Rotation - With expected liquidity from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, sectors with relatively low valuations are recommended for investment [7][39]. - The lithium battery equipment sector is projected to experience upward valuation space due to ongoing technological advancements, while the photovoltaic equipment sector is expected to recover as new technologies emerge [7][39]. Investment Strategy 3: Investing in the Future - Emerging industries such as AI and humanoid robots are expected to thrive, with strong market demand and increasing capital expenditure [8][39]. - The AI industry is transitioning into a high-quality growth phase, with significant potential for profit and valuation increases [8][39].

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 检测服务跟踪：卫星检测市场蓄势待发 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 商业航天产业为国家战略性工程，其中卫星互联网设备是一个复杂的系统，对上下游设备链的 可用性、可靠性、安全性、兼容性、互换性、法规性等要求更加严格，检测认证对其质量保障 至关重要；在研发设计、样品制备、成品量产阶段均需要测试服务。随着卫星发射量的快速增 加，检测服务需求蓄势待发。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 赵智勇 贾少波 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490520070003 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BRP550 曹小敏 SAC：S0490521050001 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 8 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 丨证券研究报告丨 cjzqdt11111 2025-12-22 [Table_Title2] 检测服务跟踪：卫星检测市场蓄势待发 [Table_Summa ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - Recent coal prices have been declining, raising concerns about future price trends. The supply side is expected to remain tight due to year-end production cuts and the imposition of export taxes by Indonesia, while demand may improve with the new year's long-term contracts and seasonal increases in consumption [2][7] - The coal price is anticipated to stabilize and recover in the short term due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity in the coal sector [6][7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 0.36%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.64 percentage points, ranking 19th out of 32 industries [6][22] - As of December 19, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 703 CNY/ton, down 42 CNY/ton week-on-week, while the price for coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 CNY/ton, up 110 CNY/ton week-on-week [6][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of December 18, the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 580.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.0% week-on-week and 9.8% year-on-year. The inventory at power plants was 134 million tons, with a usable days count of 23.2 days, an increase of 0.3 days week-on-week [17][36] - The supply side is influenced by production cuts at coal mines and the impact of export taxes from Indonesia, which could tighten supply further [7][17] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal has seen a significant decline, with a monthly drop of 105 CNY/ton (-13%), nearly erasing gains from October [7][43] - The report suggests that while coal prices are currently under pressure, improvements in supply and demand dynamics could provide a floor for prices in the near term [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal sector investments, particularly as the first quarter is typically a period of increased insurance capital inflow, which may enhance the attractiveness of coal stocks [7][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gaming industry [7]. Core Insights - The domestic gaming market in China is projected to achieve an actual sales revenue of CNY 350.79 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.68%. The market size for Q4 2025 is expected to reach CNY 94.76 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 9.24% [2][4]. - A new product cycle is underway as key new games from listed companies are being launched. Notable titles include Gigabit's "Nine Muses of the Wild" and Giant Network's "Famous Generals Kill," which have recently entered testing phases [6][4]. - The report suggests continued attention to investment opportunities within the gaming sector, highlighting companies such as Giant Network, Perfect World, and Tencent [6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The gaming market in China has reached a historical high in revenue, with mobile games generating CNY 257.08 billion (up 7.92%) and PC games reaching CNY 78.16 billion (up 14.97%) in 2025. The Q4 market size for mobile games is projected at CNY 67.38 billion (up 3.59%) [9][8]. - The user base for games has shown consistent growth over three years, with increases of 0.61%, 0.94%, and 1.35% from 2023 to 2025 [9]. New Product Cycle - The report emphasizes the impact of new game launches on Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), which is expected to rise from CNY 483.10 in 2024 to CNY 513.26 in 2025, marking a growth of 6.24% [9]. - The overseas market for self-developed mobile games from China is also thriving, with projected revenue growth of 11.14% and 13.16% for 2024 and 2025, respectively [9]. Policy Environment - Recent supportive policies for the gaming industry have been introduced, including initiatives to enhance the esports sector and promote original game development. These measures are expected to foster a more favorable environment for growth [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the software and services sector [11]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the darkest period has passed, and AI is driving a new round of transformation cycles. Cost reduction is driving profit recovery, while insufficient demand remains a core contradiction in the sector. The revenue growth rate for the sector is expected to remain low from 2022 to 2024, with a weak recovery anticipated in 2025. The apparent profit growth is significantly driven by cost control measures [7][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The computer industry is experiencing a weak recovery in 2025, with total revenue reaching 482.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The contract liabilities in the computer industry reached 95.57 billion yuan by Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [20][23]. AI and Application Focus - The report emphasizes that the current narrative in the sector revolves around the application of AI. The AI application monetization is still in its early stages, and the focus should be on application giants and foundational resources. The competition in the model side is intensifying, with leading models like GPT-5 and Gemini-3 exploring commercial monetization paths [7][9]. Infrastructure and Resource Allocation - The report highlights that the AI-driven arms race is beneficial for foundational resources, particularly in cloud computing and domestic computing power. Major companies are increasing capital expenditures (Capex) to enhance future competitiveness rather than immediate profits. The domestic token market is expected to see significant growth in the coming year, further boosting demand for computing power [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the computer sector has undergone various phases in 2025, including "main line convergence" and "wide fluctuations." As of December 14, 2025, the Yangtze Computer Index has risen by 17.7%, ranking 16th among primary industries [7][33]. Profitability and Valuation - The apparent profit growth for the computer industry in Q1-Q3 2025 reached 12.41 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 184.0% year-on-year. The industry’s gross profit margin stabilized at 31.71%, with a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. The report indicates that the overall valuation of the sector remains relatively high, with the latest PE-TTM at 65.31 times, placing it in the 86th percentile since 2016 [23][26]. Application and Model Development - The report stresses the importance of digital infrastructure as a prerequisite for AI implementation. It identifies potential early adopters in various sectors such as creative industries, customer service, e-commerce, recruitment, taxation, multimodal applications, and judicial scenarios [9][49]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for AI, with significant advancements in model capabilities and task performance. The competition among major players is expected to intensify, leading to a critical period for market share acquisition [9][49].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - Lithium prices have once again broken through, indicating a potential second round of upward movement in equity [2] - The expected recovery in supply and demand fundamentals is strengthening, with the cancellation of mining licenses for 27 expired mining rights having a minimal impact on actual supply [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of positioning in lithium equity given the current price misalignment [4] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Inflation data is lower than expected, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts, leading to a continued upward trend in gold and silver [4] - The report anticipates significant gold purchases by central banks towards the end of the year, driving gold prices higher [4] - Silver is expected to outperform due to macroeconomic conditions and low inventory levels, with a focus on silver stocks' elasticity [4] Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum are expected to see a spring rally, supported by enhanced interest rate cut expectations [4] - Recent data shows a rise in copper and aluminum prices, with LME three-month copper up by 2.8% and aluminum by 2.4% [4] - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors still have low valuations, making them attractive for investment [4] Energy and Minor Metals - The report highlights a turning point for lithium rights in 2026, with a strong demand cycle anticipated [4] - Strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten are expected to see a revaluation, with significant improvements in company performance [4] - The cobalt market is projected to face shortages from 2025 to 2027, with prices expected to rise significantly [4]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 如何理解高质量发展的政策导向和内涵？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 房地产行业高质量发展，要系统性处理好长期和短期、顶层设计与因城施策、市场和保障、增 量和存量、促发展与防风险等关系，短期、因城施策和防风险等维度的政策指向依然比较清晰， 需求端的支撑不可或缺。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 中央：住建部长发表署名文章指出，党的十八大以来，我国房地产市场快速发展，城镇人均住 房建筑面积超过 40 平方米，户均住房超过 1.1 套，建设各类保障性住房和棚改安置住房 6800 多万套。全面落实推动房地产高质量发展的重点任务，提出几点要求：优化保障性住房供给， 完善以公租房、保租房和配售型保障房为主的多层次住房保障体系；科学安排土地供应、引导 配置金融资源，坚持因城施策、精准施策、一城 ...