丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 本轮调整，为何债基久期降幅不明显？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年 Q3 以来债市明显调整，但公募债基久期降幅并不明显：1）相比 Q1，本轮债市调整相对 温和，出现多次修复，并未达到部分基金的短期止损线；2）从完成全年业绩考核角度，专注久 期策略的债基表现明显弱于去年，而 Q4 又是债市传统的抢跑和修复窗口；3）低利率环境下市 场策略容量和选择较为单一；4）一般幅度的市场调整可能并不足以引发大规模的赎回和赎回资 产的重配置。预计公募债基继续保持中等偏高的久期水平，10 年期国债收益率在 1.7%-1.8%区 间震荡，随着股债相关性减弱和基本面压力回升，预计四季度债市环境会整体优于三季度。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 本轮调整，为何债基久期降幅不明 ...

势 联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 科技风起：从昇腾迭代路线图看国产算力发展趋 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 9 月 18 日，华为全联接大会 2025 会议上，华为在 AI 芯片、超节点和算力集群等方向 公布路线图，有望引领我国 AI 基础设施新范式。超节点正迅速成为 AI 基础设施建设新常态。 国产算力受制于制程工艺，开创计算架构，打造"超节点+集群"算力解决方案持续满足算力需 求。 超节点带来多个算力环节需求和价值量提升，包括互联需求提升、液冷价值量提升、从传 统产品厂商向系统解决方案厂商的升级和国产先进制程产能需求提升等，建议关注产业链相关 环节投资机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 宗建树 于海宁 SAC：S0490517070012 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490517110002 SFC：BUW100 SFC：BUX668 SFC：BUX641 余庚宗 钟智铧 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with all three major indices falling, while the Sci-Tech 50 index rose against the trend, indicating a mixed market sentiment [2][4] - The electronic, telecommunications, and social services sectors led the gains, while the metal materials, mining, comprehensive finance, insurance, and agricultural products sectors saw corrections [2][4] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.06%, the ChiNext Index by 1.64%, the SSE 50 by 1.35%, and the CSI 300 by 1.16%. In contrast, the Sci-Tech 50 rose by 0.72%, and the CSI 1000 dropped by 1.04%. The total market turnover was approximately 3.17 trillion yuan [2][7][12] - Among the Longjiang primary industries, electronics (+0.93%), telecommunications (+0.31%), and social services (+0.29%) were the top performers, while metal materials and mining (-3.16%), comprehensive finance (-3.00%), and insurance (-2.22%) lagged [7][12] Market Drivers - The decline in the A-share market was accompanied by increased trading volume, returning to high levels. AI computing hardware stocks led the gains, while sectors such as trading software, rare metals, and industrial metals experienced corrections [7][12] - The market outlook remains optimistic, with expectations of a "slow bull" trend in the A-share market, driven by ample liquidity and the potential for long-term capital inflows [12][13] Investment Strategy - Short-term focus should be on sectors with recent revenue growth and improving gross margins, including fiberglass, cement, fine chemicals, and other materials. Additionally, technology growth sectors such as AI computing and robotics should be monitored [12][13] - Long-term perspectives favor sectors benefiting from "de-involution" trends, including metals, transportation, chemicals, and lithium batteries, as well as high-end manufacturing technologies like AI and robotics [12][13]

Market Overview - On September 18, 2025, the Hong Kong stock market recorded a total trading volume of HKD 413.31 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 6.288 billion [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.35% at 26,544.85, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.99% to 6,271.22 [5][7] Industry Insights - The recent announcement by Huawei regarding the evolution and goals of its Ascend chips over the next three years has positively impacted the semiconductor sector, leading to a significant rise in the Wind Hong Kong Semiconductor Index [2][7] - The performance of leading toy companies in Hong Kong has driven the Wind Hong Kong Durable Consumer Goods Index upward, attributed to the strengthening of their IP matrix, expectations of a consumption peak season, and a technical rebound from previous declines [2][7] Sector Performance - Among the major sectors, basic chemicals (+2.10%), pharmaceuticals (+0.31%), and defense industry (+0.10%) led the gains, while the comprehensive sector (-6.98%), coal (-2.47%), and media (-2.42%) faced declines [5][7] - Concept indices such as online education (+11.61%), financial IC (+8.49%), and Foxconn (+6.14%) showed strong performance, while local brokerage (-5.65%), liquor (-3.16%), and Wanda shares (-2.96%) lagged [5][7] Future Outlook - The report suggests three potential directions for the Hong Kong stock market to reach new highs: 1) AI technology and new consumption are expected to drive market growth, 2) continued inflows from southbound funds will enhance pricing power, and 3) improvements in global liquidity due to potential further rate cuts by the US could support market growth [2][7]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI产业跟踪：x-AI发布智能编程模型Grok Code Fast 1，持续关注模型迭代与商业化进展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 8 月 29 日，xAI 推出智能编程模型 Grok Code Fast 1，支持 256K 上下文，输入定价 $0.2/M tokens，输出定价$1.5/M tokens，可在多个 AI 编程助手和 IDE 中使用。模型专为应对 开发人员日常真实任务设计，以极致性价比与高响应效率打造竞争优势，有望在 Coding 领域 大规模落地。 Grok Code Fast 1 当前在 OpenRouter 等平台反响热烈，持续关注模型后续发 布。当前 Agent 投资核心逻辑强化，海内外模型加速迭代，模型能力持续提升、成本进一步下 降，Coding 等垂直场景 Agent 落地周期有望提前，看好 Agent 商业化元年及投资机遇。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 刘思缘 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 % ...

丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 9 月 15 日，xAI 推出 Grok-4 Fast，系 Grok-4 高速推理版本，为当前旗下最快 AI 模 型，生成速度达每秒 75 tokens，比标准版快 10 倍。根据用户反馈，响应速度最高达标准版的 10 倍。当前向付费用户推送早期访问版，限 Super Grok 和 X Premium+订阅者使用。我们认 为，速度优先的设计使其适用于追求即时效果的场景，交互效率与用户体验显著提升，预计有 望进一步集成到开发工具和移动端中，缩短 AI 应用商业化落地周期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业跟踪： x-AI 发布 Grok-4 Fast，持续关注 大模型迭代与 AI 应用商业化进展 宗建树 刘思缘 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title AI 产业跟踪：2] x-AI 发布 Grok-4 Fast，持续关注 大模型迭代与 AI 应用商业化进展 [Table_Summa ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [12] Core Insights - The report analyzes the growth trajectory and core competitive factors of the classic running shoe brand ASICS, highlighting its successful expansion in the global market despite past challenges [4][10] - It emphasizes the importance of addressing consumer pain points and the effectiveness of a focused single-brand strategy in the current multi-brand strategy environment [10] Summary by Sections Runner Demand Orientation - ASICS emerged as a leading running shoe brand in Japan by addressing the specific needs of runners, leveraging the country's strong marathon culture and continuous innovation [7][20] Strong Product Power & Localization - ASICS successfully expanded into overseas markets, particularly in Europe and North America, by localizing products and targeting professional runners through community marketing [8][83] Focus on Product and Service Ecosystem - After facing declining revenues and profits since 2016, ASICS refocused on high-margin running shoes and enhanced its service ecosystem for runners, leading to a significant recovery in performance [9][10] Challenges in the Chinese Market - ASICS entered the Chinese market in 2006 but faced challenges due to a lack of marathon events and a mismatch between its professional product offerings and the local demand for casual and fashionable sportswear [10][87]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -175 million yuan in Q2 2025, which is a 51% increase quarter-on-quarter; however, the non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was -671 million yuan, reflecting a 177% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. - The company is expected to see an increase in self-supply rates and improvements in production costs as it enters a phase of accelerated resource release [9]. - The lithium price has been declining, which has pressured the company's profitability, with a gross margin of 9.65% in Q2 2025, down 3.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's lithium salt business gross margin was 8.36%, down 3.39 percentage points year-on-year, while the lithium battery business gross margin was 14.17%, up 4.29 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company recorded a non-recurring income of 382 million yuan in H1 2025, primarily from the disposal of non-current assets and government subsidies [9]. - In Q2 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 65,300 yuan/ton, down 14% quarter-on-quarter, and the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was 64,800 yuan/ton, down 8% quarter-on-quarter [9]. Production and Cost Outlook - The company plans to produce 30,000-35,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2025, with a long-term operating cost expected to reach 65,430 USD/ton LCE (approximately 47,000 yuan/ton LCE) [9]. - The Goulamina lithium concentrate project is expected to commence production in December 2024, with promising profitability due to its resource scale and quality advantages [9]. - The Mariana salt lake project has already commenced production, with expectations for stable supply of lithium chloride products in H2 2025 [9]. Market Position and Future Prospects - The company is positioned as a leading resource player with a faster increase in self-supply rates and continuous cost optimization, which is expected to gradually improve profitability [9]. - The company is also increasing its focus on battery business, with the largest global capacity for lithium metal, indicating significant growth potential in the future [9].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (BP) to a target range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September 2025 meeting[2] - The dot plot indicates an increase in the expected cumulative rate cuts for the year from 50 BP to 75 BP[8] - The voting outcome was 11-1, with only one member supporting a 50 BP cut, indicating limited influence from the "MAGA" faction within the Fed[8] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2027, adjusting them to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively[8] - The unemployment rate forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were lowered by 0.1 percentage points (pct) to 4.4% and 4.3% respectively[8] - The inflation expectations for 2026 were increased by 0.2 pct for both PCE and core PCE to 2.6%[8] Group 3: Future Projections - The Fed is likely to implement another rate cut in October 2025, with a potential for 1-2 additional cuts by the end of the year[8] - The focus of monetary policy decisions has shifted from inflation to employment, reflecting the rising risks in the job market[8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be mild and largely one-time[8]

Fiscal Performance - Cumulative broad fiscal expenditure from January to August decreased year-on-year to 8.9%, with August showing a decline to 6%[3] - National general public budget revenue reached 14.8 trillion yuan, growing by 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure was 17.9 trillion yuan, increasing by 3.1%[7] Revenue Trends - Tax revenue in August continued to show positive growth for five consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.8%[10] - The structure of tax revenue in August revealed significant contributions from securities transaction stamp duty, which surged by 226% year-on-year, contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall tax revenue growth[10] Expenditure Insights - August's broad fiscal expenditure fell by 5.8% year-on-year, with public fiscal expenditure down by 0.6% and government fund expenditure declining by 19.9%[10] - Key areas such as social security and education maintained high growth rates, with expenditures increasing by 10.9% and 4.0% respectively[10] Land Sales and Debt - Revenue from land sales turned negative again in August, decreasing by 5.4% year-on-year, although overall land transaction values showed a 2% increase compared to last year[10] - The issuance of special bonds and treasury bonds supported fund expenditures, with actual issuance from January to August reaching 4.8 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan year-on-year[10] Debt Management - The government debt showed negative growth in August, indicating potential downward pressure on fiscal expenditure growth due to last year's high base[10] - The net financing of government debt from January to August was 4.3 trillion yuan, with expectations of a decline of 1.4 trillion yuan from September to December[10]