丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 新一轮钢铁稳增长方案与过往有何异同？ 报告要点 本轮钢铁稳增长政策对供给调控的表述更直接，从 [Table_Summary] 2023-2024 年的"供需两端发力"，到本轮的"淘 汰落后产能"，或更关注短期供需平衡表的变化。一方面，稳增长方案本身就是"反内卷"主线下 的延续，着眼于对"产能过剩"矛盾的解决；另一方面，当前外部宏观不确定性更强，内部工业品 或有通缩压力，对钢铁这类外部性强而长期亏损、作为制造业的基础而原材料和产业链利润大部分 在海外、在 PPI 占比高而大幅跌价的行业而言，对其短期供需的调节，或具有紧迫性。不过，推动 钢铁去产能，或需要经济的稳增长作配套。若有宏观经济稳增长的政策配合，执行过程或更为顺畅。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% researc ...

长江证券研究所国防军工研究小组 激浊扬清，周观军工 第128期： 军贸推荐·中航西飞 2025-07-20 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 分析师 王贺嘉 分析师 王清 分析师 杨继虎 分析师 张晨晨 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520110004 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524050001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490525040001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524080007 SFC执业证书编号：BUX462 分析师 张飞 联系人 李麟君 SAC执业证书编号：S0490525060003 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 业绩预告：已发布公司半数单季度 预增，主赛道元器件业绩率先兑现 02 对外军贸：自主可控先进航空装备 引领中国对外军贸实现高端化破局 03 中航西飞：大型运载打击支援平台 全覆盖，享稀缺产品旺盛需求红利 04 反无人机：软硬结合同铸"天穹"， 探察、扰骗、毁伤一体卫空域安全 目 录 05 菲利华：臻于新域新质生产力，电 子布及掩膜 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 行业研究丨专题报告丨机械 [Table_Title] 人形机器人系列（十二）：政策+资本驱动国内人 形机器人产业快速发展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 政策在近两年在人形机器人产业发展发挥重要催化、引导作用。2024-2025 年政策一直保持推 动具身智能和人形机器人产业发展的连贯性。同时，多地政府积极参与产投基金设立，高屋建 瓴的政策+配套产业基金+具体"产学研"机构是个相对完整且成熟的模式。资本加速布局人形 机器人、具身智能赛道，今年以来多个头部厂商获得战略投资，上市企业亦在积极参与头部人 形机器人厂商的并购整合或技术合作，国内人形机器人的产业集群更加体系化，产业实力持续 夯实。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵智勇 倪蕤 刘晓舟 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490520030003 SAC：S0490524030001 SFC：BRP550 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 人形机器人系列（十二）：政策 2] +资本驱动国内人 形机器人产业快速发展 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] "反内卷"下哪些煤炭公司弹性较大？ 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 煤炭板块当前处于产能利用率低&库存偏高&盈利较差状态，说明当前供给过剩程度突出，所以 反内卷可能性较大；此外，煤炭板块估值较低，估值优势排序上焦炭>焦煤>动力煤，由此可见 双焦权益弹性更大。从个股来看，平煤股份、盘江股份、山煤国际、开滦股份、恒源煤电、甘 肃能化弹性较大；但如果把投资安全性（负债率）也考虑进去，则平煤股份、开滦股份、恒源 煤电、晋控煤业较好。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] "反内卷"下哪些煤 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨运输 [Table_Title] 以史为鉴看快递"反内卷"：竞争和监管复盘 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中央财经委和国家邮政局先后召开会议，反对"内卷式"竞争，本文对 2021 年快递行业非理 性竞争下的监管政策背景和效果进行复盘，试图前瞻本轮"反内卷"对快递行业的潜在影响。 1）复盘 2021 年，在"共同富裕"背景下，监管以"保障快递员合法权益"为抓手，电商快递 企业宣布上调全网派费，行业盈利和股价均实现明显修复。2）展望 2025 年，行业单票利润跌 至低位，产粮区价格指导、遏制"以罚代管"、纠治差异化派费等，或是有效的"反内卷"措施， 有助于推动企业从价格战转向价值竞争转型。关注板块盈利改善和估值修复机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 供给扰动碳酸锂超跌修复，战略金属价值持 续重估 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 钴方面，中国钴中间品 6 月进口量已出现如期环比骤降，逻辑正在逐步兑现。中国 6 月钴中间 品进口量 18991 吨，环比-61.6%。相较于 2 月底禁令发布后更多来自于情绪修复的钴价上涨， 考虑到下半年将面临原料到港的真空期，且后续刚果金政策不定，本轮现货矛盾或更为突出。 静待国内库存消化，钴价启动第二波上行。锂方面，近期藏格矿业盐湖整改，以及宜春云母矿 补充储量报告等事件均体现出国内矿业管控趋严。在当前利多信号频现窗口下，锂商品和权益 短期上涨动能强劲。但中长期来看，目前实质性的资源出清信号仍不明朗，同时西藏盐湖、湖 南锂云母、四川锂矿等潜力资源点进入产量加速释放阶段，供需大周期拐点仍待时日。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SA ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [9] Core Insights - The industrial economy's recovery and higher temperatures have driven electricity demand, resulting in a 1.7% year-on-year increase in power generation in June, with a 1.2 percentage point improvement from the previous month [2][19] - Hydropower generation decreased by 4.0% year-on-year in June, but the decline has narrowed significantly due to improved water inflow and prior energy storage release [7][24] - Non-hydropower clean energy sources, particularly nuclear and solar, have shown rapid growth, while wind power growth has been limited by weaker resource availability [32][41] Summary by Sections Power Generation Data - In June, the total power generation reached 796.3 billion kWh, a 1.7% increase year-on-year, with thermal power generation at 493.9 billion kWh (up 1.1%), hydropower at 139.1 billion kWh (down 4.0%), nuclear power at 39.4 billion kWh (up 10.3%), wind power at 73.8 billion kWh (up 3.2%), and solar power at 50.1 billion kWh (up 18.3%) [18][24] - For the first half of 2025, total power generation was 4537.1 billion kWh, a 0.8% increase year-on-year [18] Hydropower Insights - The average inflow to the Three Gorges Reservoir in June was 14,307 cubic meters per second, down 13.13% year-on-year, while the outflow was 12,122 cubic meters per second, down 7.51% [7][24] - The hydropower generation decline has narrowed by 10.3 percentage points month-on-month due to improved water conditions and energy storage [7][30] Clean Energy Developments - In the first five months of 2025, wind and solar power installations increased significantly, with wind power adding 46.28 million kW and solar power adding 197.85 million kW [32] - Solar power generation in June grew by 18.3% year-on-year, while wind power only increased by 3.2% due to resource limitations [32][41] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huadian International, China Resources Power, and Huaneng Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [12][45] - For new energy, it recommends Longyuan Power, China Nuclear Power, and Zhongmin Energy, highlighting the potential for growth in the sector [12][47]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨建筑与工程 [Table_Title] 雅下水电站开工，重视建筑行业投资机会 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式 7 月 19 日上午在西藏自治区林芝市举行。中共中央政治局 常委、国务院总理李强出席开工仪式，并宣布工程正式开工。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SFC：BUT917 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 风险提示 1、项目资金到位不及预期； 2、项目所在地自然灾害频发风险。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 2025-07-20 行业研究丨点评报告 建筑与工程 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 雅下水电站开工，重视建筑行业投资机会 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式 7 月 19 日上午在西藏自治区林芝市举行。中共中央政治局 常委、国务院总理李强出席开工仪式，并宣布工程正 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Nanjing Bank [3][10]. Core Views - Nanjing Bank is entering a new five-year planning cycle, with three major turning points driving value reassessment: 1) Market share enhancement cycle, 2) Interest rate decline cycle, and 3) Cost-to-income ratio improvement cycle [3][10]. - The bank's current PB valuation is 0.81x for 2025, with a dividend yield of 4.5%, making it a strong investment recommendation [3][10]. Market Share Enhancement Cycle - The management team, led by Chairman Xie Ning, is driving operational efficiency through comprehensive reforms and management optimization, following a significant expansion of branch networks [7][21]. - By the end of 2024, Nanjing Bank will have 290 branches, with a focus on increasing market share through a "three-year customer doubling action plan" [7][22]. - The favorable economic environment in Jiangsu province, with a credit growth rate close to 10% as of May, supports sustainable revenue growth for Nanjing Bank [7][25]. Interest Rate Decline Cycle - Nanjing Bank benefits from a favorable asset-liability structure in a low-interest-rate environment, with a high proportion of time deposits (78%) compared to peers [8][10]. - The bank has already passed the peak pressure on net interest margin (NIM) in 2023, and NIM is expected to stabilize as deposit costs decline [8][10]. Cost-to-Income Ratio Improvement Cycle - The cost-to-income ratio has risen to 30.5% from 2019 to 2023, but is projected to decrease to 28.1% in 2024 due to operational efficiencies and a three-year financial management plan [9][10]. - The bank's asset quality is stabilizing, with a focus on government-related loans, while retail loan risks are expected to improve in the coming years [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Nanjing Bank is expected to maintain a leading position in ROE and performance growth among listed banks, with a dividend payout ratio above 30% [10]. - The completion of a 20 billion yuan convertible bond conversion enhances capital, supporting the bank's growth trajectory [10].

行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业跟踪：OpenAI 发布 Agent 模式，AI Agent 商业化落地与规模化进展有望加速 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 7 月 18 日凌晨，OpenAI 宣布并介绍了即将推出的 Agent 模式，当前 Agent 模式集成于 ChatGPT，目前已向 OpenAI Pro、Plus 和 Team 计划的订阅用户开放，Pro 用户每月 400 次 调用，Plus 和 Team 用户每月 40 次，企业版与教育版预计本月底前上线。我们认为，ChatGPT Agent 把"大模型"升级为"大系统"，为后续 AI Agent 规模化落地提供了可借鉴的技术路径。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title AI 产业跟踪：2]OpenAI 发布 Agent 模式，AI Agent 商业化落地 ...