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2025年二季度公募基金持仓分析:科技持仓持续增长,周期配置逐步抬升
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-23 14:16
Group 1 - The overall fund positions increased marginally in Q2 2025, with a notable increase in the ChiNext index and a decrease in the main board [6][10][14] - In terms of industry allocation, public funds increased their holdings in technology and cyclical sectors while reducing exposure to manufacturing and consumer sectors [25][31] - The allocation to high-dividend sectors rose, with significant increases in insurance holdings [50][52] Group 2 - The public funds significantly increased their positions in the ChiNext index by 1.74 percentage points to 15.18% and reduced the main board by 1.87 percentage points to 72.46% [14][24] - The technology sector saw increased allocations, particularly in electronics, healthcare, and home appliance manufacturing, while the food and beverage sector saw a decline [31][34] - The telecommunications and financial sectors experienced notable increases in allocation, while discretionary and staple consumer sectors were reduced [28][31] Group 3 - The report highlighted a marginal increase in the stock positions of four types of funds, with the balanced mixed funds showing a more significant increase [11][19] - The concentration of the top ten holdings decreased, with the top ten holdings accounting for 16.70%, down 3.4 percentage points from the previous quarter [24] - The report indicated a continued rise in the allocation to Hong Kong stocks, while the allocation to the Hang Seng Technology index saw a decline [15][17]
全球视角看尿素:供需平衡,趋势向好
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-23 11:37
l 证券研究报告 l 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年以来尿素价格反转,但我国出口政策仍然严格,国内外价格有所分化,但趋势同步向 上,未来几年尿素行业在供需平衡增长局面下,有望延续景气运行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 王明 SAC:S0490516100002 SAC:S0490521030001 SFC:BUT911 SFC:BVA881 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% 行业研究丨深度报告丨化工 全球视角看尿素: 供需平衡, 趋势向好 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary2] 尿素:作物生长的核心养分 尿素(Urea)是由碳、氮、氧和氢组成的有机化合物,外观是无色晶体或粉末,通常用作植物 的氮肥,此外还可以用于工业板材、三聚氰胺、火电脱销、车用尿素等领域。我国尿素生产工 艺以煤制和天然气制为主,2024 年煤制工艺产能占比在 74.0%。 供需平稳增长,行业景气有望稳健运行 需求面,根据 IFA 统计,1961-2024 年,全球氮肥消费量(以 N 计量)年均复合增速为 3.7%, 2 ...
多策略配置(二):成长风格的三种表达
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-23 11:36
多策略配置(二):成长风格 的三种表达 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 2025-07-23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 覃川桃 分析师 郑起 SAC执业证书编号:S0490513030001 SAC执业证书编号:S0490520060001 SFC执业证书编号:BUT353 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 3 research.95579.com 2 目 录 01 成长因子 02 三种成长风格 03 成长策略 04 总结 01 成长因子 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 成长指数 表:成长指数代表(中证全指下) | 指数类别 | 指数名称 | 指数代码 | 编制方案 | 个数 | 核心指标/思路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 中证500成长指数 | H30351.CSI | 营业收入平均增长率(SalG):将过去三年营业收入与时间t进行回归分析,将回归系数除以各点营业收入的平均值所得到的 ...
大唐发电(601991):北地砺火,乘势而起
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-23 11:35
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [11] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the decline in coal prices since 2025, which will improve fuel costs and support profitability through capacity pricing policies [2][9] - The company's fire power assets are primarily located in northern regions, which exhibit stronger price resilience, and this structural advantage is likely to persist [2][7] - The diversification into clean energy is expected to smooth out cyclical fluctuations and contribute to growth momentum [2][9] Summary by Sections Historical Review - The company's stock performance weakened from 2014 to 2021, but began to recover post-2021 due to the "dual carbon" goals and deepening electricity reforms [5][19] - The core issues affecting performance included a misfocused transformation strategy and the burden of low-efficiency assets [5][24] Group Fire Power Integration and Clean Energy Diversification - The company serves as the final integration platform for the fire power business under the parent group and is steadily advancing towards a green and low-carbon transformation [6][28] - The fire power business remains a crucial support for the company, with clean energy performance gradually expanding to mitigate the adverse effects of coal price fluctuations [6][9] Asset Layout and Efficiency - The company's fire power assets are concentrated in the northern regions, where electricity prices have shown more resilience compared to southern regions [7][43] - The company has improved its coal consumption efficiency, reducing it from 293.17 grams/kWh in 2020 to 288.47 grams/kWh in 2024, placing it at an industry-leading level [7][51] Clean Energy Contribution - The company has a diversified clean energy layout, focusing on wind and solar power, which has led to significant profit contributions [8][30] - The clean energy segment is expected to continue expanding, with wind and solar power accounting for 36.51% of total profits in 2024 [6][38] Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to have an EPS of 0.34, 0.36, and 0.38 for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.59, 10.66, and 10.35, justifying the "Buy" rating [9][11]
多策略配置(一):增强价值风格的逻辑
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-23 09:24
多策略配置(一):增强价值 风格的逻辑 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 2025-07-23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 分析师及联系人 分析师 覃川桃 分析师 郑起 SAC执业证书编号:S0490513030001 SAC执业证书编号:S0490520060001 SFC执业证书编号:BUT353 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 目 录 01 价值因子 02 价值指数 03 价值增强策略 04 总结 % research.95579.com 3 01 价值因子 %% %% research.95579.com 4 价值指数 表:价值指数代表(中证全指下) | 指数类别 | 指数名称 | 指数代码 | 编制方案 | 个数 | 核心指标/思路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深300价值指数 中证500价值指数 | 000919.CSI | | 100 | 价值:DP、BP、CFP、 | | | | H30352.CSI | 1.对样本空间内证券, ...
2025年6月房企拿地质量报告:核心地块供应继续放缓,中型房企拿地表现更好
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-23 04:43
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - In June, the overall land supply volume increased month-on-month, but the pace of core land supply continued to slow down. The overall transaction volume also saw a month-on-month increase, with the premium rate continuing its downward trend since March, while the auction failure rate remained low [2][10] - Major players such as Jianfa, Zhonghai, and Poly were active in the land market in June, with Jianfa, Jinmao, Binhai, and Greentown showing strong land acquisition intensity from January to June. Jianfa, Greentown, and Jinmao achieved better sales performance [2][8] - The quality of land acquired by sample real estate companies in June was higher for Greentown, Jinmao, and Jianfa, reflecting a focus on regional advantages, product strength, and low inventory among leading companies, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [2][10] Summary by Sections Supply - In June, the overall land supply volume increased by 38.4% month-on-month compared to May, but the supply of core land decreased compared to April and May. From January to June, the cumulative launched residential land area in 300 cities decreased by 17.3% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a 23.9% increase, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 23.3% decrease [6][10] Transactions - The transaction volume in June increased by 43.5% month-on-month, with the transaction amount rising by 98.3%. The cumulative transaction area and amount in 300 cities from January to June decreased by 4.3% and increased by 28.0% year-on-year, respectively [7][10] Real Estate Companies - In June, Jianfa, Zhonghai, and Poly were the top three in land acquisition amounts, with total acquisition amounts of 21.9 billion, 11 billion, and 8.9 billion respectively. From January to June, Jianfa, Poly, and Jinmao led in total land acquisition amounts, with 59.2 billion, 50.9 billion, and 49.2 billion respectively [8][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on medium to long-term structural opportunities, emphasizing leading companies with regional advantages, product strength, and low inventory, as well as those with stable cash flow [10]
广电计量(002967):发布定增+并购+分红+市值管理制度,着重布局新兴产业检测能力
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-23 04:43
丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨公司点评丨广电计量(002967.SZ) [Table_Title] 广电计量:发布定增+并购+分红+市值管理 制度,着重布局新兴产业检测能力 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 7 月 22 日,广电计量发布《2025 年度向特定对象发行 A 股股票预案》、《未来三年 (2025-2027 年)股东回报规划》、《市值管理制度(2025 年 7 月)》。同日,董事会审议通过《关于 投资收购北京金源动力信息化测评技术有限公司 55%股权的议案》。本次定增计划不超过 13 亿 元,资金投向航空(含低空)、AI 芯片、卫星互联网、数字化等新兴产业,利好公司长期发展。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 赵智勇 贾少波 曹小敏 盛意 SAC:S0490517090001 SAC:S0490517110001 SAC:S0490520070003 SAC:S0490521050001 SFC:BUV415 SFC:BRP550 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 广电计量(002967.SZ) c ...
建材反内卷的深度剖析
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-23 03:21
建材反内卷的深度剖析 长江证券研究所建材研究小组 2025-07-23 %% %% %% %% 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 分析师 范超 分析师 张佩 分析师 李金宝 分析师 李浩 SAC执业证书编号:S0490513080001 SAC执业证书编号:S0490518080002 SAC执业证书编号:S0490516040002 SAC执业证书编号:S0490520080026 SFC执业证书编号:BQK473 SFC执业证书编号:BVZ972 分析师 董超 SAC执业证书编号:S0490523030002 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 建材反内卷的三大路径 02 03 水泥:暂无增量政策约束,协同基础较好 04 玻纤:关注对新增产能的约束 玻璃:光伏期待政策,浮法等待市场 目 录 05 碳纤维:无序投产或被限制 06 消费建材:供给出清,龙头份额提升 research.95579.com %% research.95579.com 3 01 建材反内卷的三大路径 %% %% %% %% research.95579.co ...
欧洲新能源有望提速
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-22 23:30
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨汽车与汽车零部件 [Table_Title] 英国重启电车补贴,欧洲新能源有望提速 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 英国重启新一轮电动车补贴,政策主要覆盖售价 3.7 万英镑以下的电动车,每辆车最高补贴 3750 英镑,总补贴额度为 6.5 亿英镑,计划持续到 2028 至 2029 年。若按平均单车补贴测算, 计划内预计补贴 24.8 万辆,平均每年 8.3 万辆,看好本轮补贴带动英国新能源渗透率提升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490524070004 SFC:BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 汽车与汽车零部件 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 英国重启电车补贴,欧洲新能源有望提速 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 7 月 15 日,英国交通部宣布了一项价值 6.5 亿英镑的电动汽车补贴计划,为购买售价 不超过 3.7 万英镑电动汽车的消费者提供至多 37 ...
长城汽车(601633):中报快报点评:高价车型占比及政府补贴增加,二季度业绩超预期
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-22 23:30
丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨长城汽车(601633.SH) [Table_Title] 长城汽车中报快报点评:高价车型占比及政府补 贴增加,二季度业绩超预期 报告要点 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary] 公司 2025 Q2 预计实现营业收入 523.5 亿元,归母净利润 45.9 亿元,对应单车收入 16.7 万 元,单车盈利 1.5 万元。公司加速全球化布局,坚定新能源转型,持续的新车周期有望推动公 司销量与业绩改善。长期来看,公司四大拓展战略打开销量长期增长空间,智能化转型开启全 产业链盈利空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490524070004 SFC:BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 长城汽车(601633.SH) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 长城汽车中报快报点评:高价车型占比及政府 2] 补贴增加,二季度业绩超预期 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 长城汽车发布 2025 半年度业绩快报,2025 ...