丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 地缘性"需求意外"贯穿全年，重申油运推荐 ——交运周专题 2026W3 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 年初以来，VLCC 运价大幅反弹。货盘释放以及浮舱增加，供需紧张推动运价上涨。油运作为 典型的周期性行业，无论是从行业跟踪还是投资层面，更多关注行业周期变动的边际作用。展 望 2026 年，地缘波动带来的"需求意外"和全球原油增产下的补库周期将提振油运需求，打 消供给担忧。年初，美国对委内瑞拉实施打击并接管其原油，意味着委内瑞拉原油出口合规化 阶段性兑现。当前，伊朗地缘波动加剧，同样饱含看涨期权。另外，在全球原油增产周期下， 下游或进入补库周期，提振油运需求，因此将打消供给担忧，重申推荐中远海能、招商轮船。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The recent adjustment in the stock price of Changjiang Electric is attributed to short-term capital behavior rather than fundamental factors, with a significant weekly decline of 2.82%, marking the largest drop since 2025 [2][8] - The company's performance remains robust, with a projected revenue of 85.882 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.65%, and a net profit of 34.167 billion yuan, up 5.14% [8][64] - The current dividend yield is at a historical high compared to the ten-year government bond yield, suggesting a strong dividend value and investment opportunity [9][19] Summary by Sections Company Performance - Changjiang Electric's total power generation from its six hydropower stations is expected to reach approximately 307.194 billion kWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.82%, with a notable 19.93% growth in the fourth quarter [8] - The company has a high dividend payout commitment of at least 70% for the period from 2026 to 2030, reinforcing its stable dividend yield [9][19] Market Dynamics - The stock has experienced significant capital outflows, with a net outflow of 949 million yuan this week, the highest since March 2025, influenced by market sentiment and bond market pressures [8] - The company is expected to play a stabilizing role in the market as a core heavyweight stock during periods of rising risk appetite [2][8] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on low-positioning opportunities following the recent adjustments, as the fundamental value of Changjiang Electric remains solid [9] - Recommendations include quality transformation thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Guodian Power, as well as hydropower companies like Changjiang Electric and Guotou Power [9]

[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨江淮汽车（600418.SH） [Table_Title] 江淮汽车 2025 年业绩预告点评：Q4 经营大幅 改善，尊界开启新周期 报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 1 月 16 日，公司发布 2025 年度业绩预告，预计归属于母公司所有者的净亏损 16.80 亿元左 右，上年同期为亏损 17.84 亿元。我们预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为- 16.80/37.98/74.62 亿元，当前市值对应估值 PE 分别为-/28.33/14.42X，基于公司尊界系列车 型加速放量，超豪华自主崛起助力公司业绩持续保持高增长，维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张永乾 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030002 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 江淮汽车（600418.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 江淮汽 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - From 2024 to 2025, most food categories are expected to experience negative year-on-year sales growth, facing significant growth pressure. Frozen food is relatively outstanding, achieving nearly 2% positive growth in 2025. The decline in growth rates for condiments and dairy products has notably narrowed. However, convenient fast food and snack categories are under considerable pressure, with the former expected to decline by 8% in 2025 and the latter experiencing a continuous decline of over 10% for two consecutive years, primarily due to channel fragmentation, price wars, and consumer downgrading [2][4][14]. Summary by Relevant Sections Sales Growth Trends - The sales growth rate for most food categories is projected to remain negative from 2024 to 2025, with frozen food showing a positive growth of nearly 2% in 2025. The growth rate decline for condiments and dairy products has significantly narrowed, while convenient fast food and snack categories are under pressure, with the former expected to decline by 8% and the latter over 10% [2][4][14]. Sales Volume Trends - The year-on-year change in sales volume for various categories generally follows the same trend as sales revenue. The snack category is expected to see a significant increase in sales volume decline in 2025 compared to 2024, contrasting with the moderate decline in sales revenue. This is attributed to the rise of bulk snack channels, which have diverted demand for smaller purchases, forcing traditional retail channels to increase single-item specifications to maintain cost-effectiveness, thereby reducing sales volume [4][14]. Price Trends - Over the past five quarters (Q4 2024 to Q3 2025), the price index for food, beverages, and daily chemicals has consistently remained below 100, indicating ongoing price downward pressure. By Q4 2025, the indices for these three categories are concentrated between 98-99, with food slightly better than the others, but the difference is minimal. The overall price trend is converging, with a narrowing fluctuation range, indicating a lack of significant independent trends across categories, primarily influenced by the macroeconomic environment [4][16]. Subsector Performance - The food and beverage index has shown a 0.19% increase since early 2026, lagging behind the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 2.20%. The recent week has seen leading gains in red wine and snack sectors, while the white wine and condiment sectors have experienced significant pullbacks [6][42]. Industry Dynamics - The industry is actively responding to market changes through digital transformation, new product incubation, and capital operations. Notable movements include Guizhou Moutai's user growth on the "i Moutai" platform and East Peak Beverage's projected significant profit growth for 2025. Additionally, new product launches and strategic partnerships are being pursued by various companies to adapt to changing consumer preferences [7][48][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry [13] Core Insights - The report analyzes Samsung Electronics' successful transition from home appliances to semiconductor storage, display panels, and mobile phones, providing a reference for China's leading home appliance companies in their industrial upgrades [4] - Samsung Electronics has achieved an average annual compound growth rate of 19% in net profit from 1993 to 2024, making it the largest and fastest-growing home appliance company globally [7][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of proactive engagement with industry changes and policy opportunities during the growth phase of home appliances, highlighting Samsung's strategic investments and efficiency improvements [8][9] Summary by Sections Background and Timing - Samsung Electronics entered the semiconductor storage industry in 1983 when the penetration rate of home appliances in South Korea was rapidly increasing, supported by a strong GDP growth rate of over 10% [8][46] - The company capitalized on government support and market opportunities to navigate early losses and establish a profitable cycle in the semiconductor industry [8][46] Challenges and Strategies - Samsung leveraged its latecomer advantage and implemented a counter-cyclical investment strategy to quickly capture market share, achieving a 39% market share in the storage sector by 2024 [9] - The company focused on efficiency and cost advantages across various dimensions, including organizational structure and production strategies [9] Effects and Outcomes - By 2017, Samsung surpassed Intel to become the world's largest semiconductor manufacturer, with R&D investment increasing from 2% in 1980 to 12% in 2024 [10] - The company successfully expanded into display panels and mobile phones, creating a synergistic industrial system that enhanced its brand image and market position [10] Comparison with Midea Group - Midea Group is positioned to achieve significant industrial upgrades, with a projected 22% revenue contribution from non-home appliance sectors by 2024 and a growth rate of 15%-20% in recent years [11] - The report highlights Midea's advantages in cash flow stability and efficiency, suggesting a strong potential for industrial upgrades [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Insights - The bulk snack industry has successfully captured current consumer trends through "extreme cost performance" and "efficient supply chains," leading to a stable "dual strong" market structure with significant scale effects for leading companies [4][6] - The market for leisure food and beverages is expected to approach 4 trillion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over single digits from 2025 to 2029 [6][30] - The two leading companies, Mingming and Wancheng, have established themselves as industry champions, with Mingming showing stronger profitability and Wancheng focusing on operational efficiency and turnover speed [4][7] Market Structure and Growth - The snack industry is transitioning from fragmented operations to brand and chain development, entering an innovative phase represented by bulk snack stores [19][21] - The leisure food and beverage market is projected to grow significantly, with the down-market segment expected to see a growth rate of 6.8% from 2024 to 2029, surpassing the high-line market's 4.1% [6][33] - The retail market for bulk snacks is expected to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2025, with significant contributions from lower-tier markets [36][38] Company Performance - As of mid-2025, both leading companies have over 15,000 stores, with Mingming's store count reaching 21,041 by November 2025, while Wancheng is enhancing its presence in lower-tier markets [7][54] - Mingming has approximately 180 million registered members, with a repurchase rate of about 77%, while Wancheng has over 150 million registered members and an average monthly purchase frequency of 2.9 times [54][55] - Profitability for both companies is improving, with Mingming's gross margin at 9.7% and Wancheng's at 11.7% for the first three quarters of 2025 [8][55] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the future growth of bulk snack companies will rely on scale effects and operational efficiency, with potential for category expansion and overseas market penetration [9][30] - The Southeast Asian snack and beverage market is projected to reach approximately 48.4 billion USD by 2025, presenting opportunities for Chinese snack companies to expand internationally [9][30]

[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨潍柴动力（000338.SZ） [Table_Title] 重卡新视界系列之潍柴动力：乘 AI 电源之东风， 传统龙头"双轨"转型 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 全球 AI 浪潮起，潍柴积极转型，布局数据中心备用电源柴油发动机（大缸径）和主用电源 SOFC； 其中大缸径业务已迎来放量周期，业绩快速兑现；SOFC 海外需求旺盛，目前公司已达成意向 订单，随着项目 2027 年迎来规模量产，未来成长空间巨大。预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利 润为 125.4、140.3、152.1 亿元，对应 PE 14.5X、13.0X、12.0X，维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 吴优 SAC：S0490517060001 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_scodeMsg2] 潍柴动力（000338.SZ） cjzq ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [13]. Core Insights - The relationship between stock prices and housing prices is characterized by three dimensions, with a long-term alignment but uncertain short-term dynamics. Stock prices may lead housing prices or show significant divergence. In the long term, stock prices reflect EPS growth while housing prices reflect income or rental growth, both being results of economic fundamentals. In the short term, factors such as development stage, policy direction, and risk appetite create uncertainty in the relationship between stock and housing prices. The key to whether stock prices can lead housing prices in the short term lies in the ability to quickly shift drivers from risk appetite to economic fundamentals [3][10]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 3.24% this week, with an excess return of -2.67% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 2.85%, with an excess return of 0.65% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 18th out of 32 [7][17]. Policy Updates - Policies supporting residential housing tax refunds for home purchases and lowering the minimum down payment for commercial properties to 30% are being implemented. The central government has announced tax refund incentives for taxpayers who sell their homes and purchase new ones within one year. Local governments are also promoting the use of special bonds to acquire existing properties for affordable housing and conducting promotional activities around major holidays [8][19]. Sales Data - There has been a marginal improvement in new and second-hand housing transactions in sample cities. The new housing transaction area in 37 cities decreased by 35.8% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing transaction area decreased by 16.2% year-on-year. Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for new housing is down 39.3%, and for second-hand housing, it is down 15.6% [9][20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a first-time recommendation [7]. Core Insights - The company is a key supplier of missile (rocket) solid engine power and control products, as well as ammunition equipment, with strong asset scarcity. The company has seen significant revenue growth driven by the volume production of solid engine power modules and main ammunition products since the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][22]. - The company has a rich reserve of projects and models, which is expected to gradually lead to batch production and revenue growth. It is actively expanding its production capacity to meet delivery tasks and business expansion needs [34][40]. - The solid rocket engine has vast application potential in both military and commercial aerospace fields, with a focus on high-energy, high-burn rate, and safe materials development [6][45]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Established in December 2007, the company is a pioneer in mixed-ownership reform among state-owned military enterprises and became the first company in Jiangxi Province to be listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in 2023 [5][16]. Business Segments - The company focuses on solid engine power modules and ammunition equipment, holding a significant position in the defense technology industry. It has seen substantial growth in revenue and net profit due to the increased demand for solid engine power modules and main ammunition products [5][22]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.78%, and a net profit of 199 million yuan, up 41.25% year-on-year. The growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 showed a slowdown due to high base effects and upstream material supply issues [26][30]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company is actively expanding its production capacity to address delivery tasks and business growth. It has multiple ongoing projects aimed at enhancing its production capabilities, including a significant investment in solid engine power module production [40][41]. Research and Development - The company emphasizes forward-looking research and development, with a rich reserve of projects and models. It is involved in various key technology research projects and has established collaborations with multiple military and research institutions [34][37]. Market Opportunities - The company is expanding its market presence by establishing new customer relationships and exploring military trade opportunities. It has signed contracts for military trade products, indicating a proactive approach to market expansion [37][38].

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 氢能周度观察（8）：2025 年燃料电池商用车上 险超 1 万辆，同比增 52.5% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Summary] 2025 年我国燃料电池商用车上险 10,778 辆，同比增 52.5%；总装机功率为 1,301MW，同比 增 59.8%，均创下历史新高。装机排名前三的燃料电池系统企业分别为雄韬股份、博世（中国）、 未势能源，上险排名前三的汽车企业分别为乘龙、宇通、豪沃。2025 年燃料电池汽车及系统上 险量主要集中在广东（占比为 47%）。预计未来材料国产替代、规模化效应、技术工艺优化继 续带动产业链成本下降，推动行业商业化。建议关注燃料电池系统相关企业。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 司鸿历 贾少波 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490520080002 SAC：S0490520070003 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BVD284 李博文 盛意 SAC ...