Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term demand expectations as a key driver for valuation and performance in the lithium battery and photovoltaic sectors [24][28] - It highlights the significant impact of short-term marginal conditions, particularly pricing and production/output data, on market sentiment and stock performance [41][48] Summary by Sections 1. Stock Price Review - The lithium battery market began its upward trend in late 2019, driven by European carbon emission assessments and the rise of new energy vehicle consumption in China [11] - The photovoltaic market saw significant growth from 2020 to 2021 due to global carbon reduction targets and supply constraints, leading to a surge in prices and stock performance [15] - The inverter segment experienced explosive growth driven by demand from energy storage solutions, but faced a sharp decline in 2023 due to inventory issues [19] 2. Key Drivers - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Lithium Batteries** - The report notes that the adjustment of long-term demand expectations directly influences performance and valuation, with significant growth observed in 2020 due to rising demand for new energy vehicles [24] - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Photovoltaics** - The report indicates that from 2020 to 2021, demand expectations for photovoltaics were revised upwards, leading to a bullish market sentiment, but concerns about peak demand in 2023 led to a decline in valuations [29] - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Inverters** - The inverter market's performance was closely tied to demand expectations, with significant growth in 2022 driven by European energy needs, but a subsequent drop in orders in 2023 [33] 3. Short-term Marginal Conditions - **Pricing** - The report highlights that price changes in lithium and silicon materials significantly affect stock prices, with stock prices often leading material price increases [41] - **Production/Output** - Monthly production and shipment data are critical indicators for stock performance, particularly in the energy storage sector, where visibility is limited [48] - **Quarterly Profit Growth Expectations** - Market participants often use quarterly profit growth expectations to gauge industry health, with stock prices typically peaking ahead of profit expectations [49] 4. Other Insights - The report notes that valuation levels are not the primary indicators of market peaks, as fundamental expectations play a more crucial role in determining market trends [59] 5. Outlook - The report expresses optimism for the energy storage market, projecting significant growth in global installations driven by improved demand expectations and favorable market conditions [62][65]

联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] 工业硅深度：消费久进击，蓄力乘风起 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 工业硅是硅产业链的起点，是典型的高耗能行业，其下游主要为多晶硅、有机硅和硅铝合金， 上一轮景气高点后，新产能投放过多导致行业供给过剩，行业景气已触底。展望未来，需求端， 光伏装机平稳，多晶硅增速平缓，有机硅需求韧性十足，在新领域持续提高渗透率，硅铝合金 需求整体持稳；供给端，海外产能增长停滞，国内中小产能有望出清，行业供给侧压力或将减 轻，库存虽仍在高位但增速放缓，"反内卷"背景下，工业硅作为硅产业链的上游，或将复刻多 晶硅反内卷的成功经验，建议关注工业硅相关标的合盛硅业、新安股份和兴发集团。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 邬博华 曹海花 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BQK482 李禹默 徐静 SAC：S0490525060002 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the optical module sector, indicating that the actual performance PE of leading companies is significantly lower than the consensus expected PE, suggesting room for upward valuation adjustments [3][6]. Core Insights - The current AI-driven market for optical modules shows a rapid amplification effect similar to the "Davis Double Play" seen in the consumer electronics sector, alongside attributes of "profit exceeding expectations and valuation mismatch" observed in the renewable energy sector, indicating both explosive growth potential and sustainability [3][6]. - The report highlights that the leading companies in the optical module market, such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and Tianfu Communication, have experienced substantial rebounds in their stock prices, with respective increases of 481%, 607%, and 305% from their year-to-date lows [6]. - The anticipated performance PE for these companies from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 52/36/30x for Zhongji Xuchuang, 44/29/24x for Xinyi Technology, and 69/50/39x for Tianfu Communication, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [6]. Summary by Sections Vertical Analysis - The report discusses the varying performance of leading companies in different market cycles, noting that the AI model training has led to a surge in computing power demand, significantly elevating the valuations of these companies [8]. - The actual performance PE of leading companies is currently underestimated compared to their expected performance PE, with Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and Tianfu Communication showing potential increases of 167%, 129%, and 103% respectively [8]. Horizontal Analysis - The report compares the optical module sector with consumer electronics and renewable energy sectors, emphasizing that the current market dynamics are driven by AI computing demand, which is distinct from the product-driven cycles seen in consumer electronics and policy-driven cycles in renewable energy [8]. - The optical module sector is characterized by a robust technological advantage and manufacturing capability, positioning it for sustained growth compared to its peers [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a reevaluation of leading optical module companies, highlighting the need for market participants to recognize the significant upside potential in their valuations as the demand for optical modules continues to rise due to increased ASIC usage and ongoing technological advancements [3][6].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective decline on September 23, 2025, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.70% to 26,159.12, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.45% to 6,167.06, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.86% to 9,290.34 [3][6][10] - The market's total trading volume reached HKD 294.56 billion, with southbound funds recording a net sell of HKD 4.069 billion [3][10] - The industrial sector saw a notable shift, with the Hong Kong banking sector (+0.77%) and public utilities (+0.25%) gaining favor, while hardware equipment (-1.84%) and food and beverage (-1.94%) sectors faced declines [6][10] Industry Analysis - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology highlighted new industrial opportunities at the 25th China International Industry Fair, which positively impacted the Hong Kong machinery sector, leading to a strong performance [10] - A significant rotation in market preferences was observed, with defensive sectors like banking and public utilities attracting investment, while previously high-performing sectors like hardware equipment faced profit-taking [10] - Future growth in the Hong Kong market may be driven by AI technology and new consumption trends, with expectations of continued inflows from southbound funds and improved liquidity from potential U.S. interest rate cuts [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that despite market fluctuations, the bullish trend in the A-share market remains intact, with expectations of a "slow bull" market in the future [6][14][15] - The report highlights that the A-share market experienced a slight decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.29%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.21% [6][9][14] - Key sectors leading the market today include banking (+1.53%), coal (+1.15%), and public utilities (+0.41%), while sectors such as social services (-3.53%) and computing (-2.54%) faced declines [9][14][15] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the market's short-term performance is influenced by micro liquidity and market sentiment, with stable sectors like banking and coal showing strength [14][15] - It suggests that the market is likely to maintain relative strength due to ample liquidity, with long-term capital entering the market, potentially leading to a "slow bull" trend [14][15] - The report outlines a focus on sectors with improving revenue growth and gross margins, such as fiberglass, cement, and fine chemicals, as well as technology growth areas like AI computing and robotics [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper packaging industry, indicating an expectation of better performance compared to the relevant market index over the next 12 months [10]. Core Insights - The paper packaging market in China is characterized by low concentration, intense competition, and low profit margins. Leading companies possess better customer resources and capabilities for international expansion, with overseas revenue growth outpacing domestic growth. The report anticipates a 2-3 year period of overseas investment dividends, driven by the first-mover advantage of leading companies, strong customer bases, and funding advantages [2][6][25]. Summary by Sections Background: Supply Chain Transition and Advantages of Leading Companies - The trend of paper packaging companies expanding overseas is evident, with leading firms showing higher overseas revenue growth compared to domestic figures. For instance, in the first half of 2025, Yutong's overseas revenue grew by 27% while domestic revenue declined by 2%. Similarly, Meiyingsen's overseas revenue increased by 39% while domestic revenue fell by 6% [6][16]. - The competitive landscape in China's paper packaging market is fragmented, with a CR5 of approximately 15%. Leading companies like Yutong hold about 6% market share, facing pressure from smaller firms employing aggressive pricing strategies [7][25]. Outlook: Increased Overseas Revenue Share and Optimized Profit Structure - The profitability of domestic leading paper packaging companies is higher than that of local competitors in markets like India. For example, Yutong's net profit margin of 21.7% in the first half of 2024 surpassed that of TCPL, India's largest folding carton producer, which had a net profit margin of about 8% [8][33]. - The report highlights that overseas markets present opportunities for premium pricing due to supply-demand mismatches, particularly in emerging manufacturing bases where local companies struggle to meet the quality and compliance standards required by multinational brands [9][46]. Competitive Advantages of Leading Companies - Leading companies have established multiple overseas bases, enhancing their ability to meet customer needs and reduce delivery times. For instance, Yutong has set up 10 overseas bases in countries like Vietnam and India [28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advantages, funding capabilities, and compliance with international standards, which smaller firms often lack. Leading companies can leverage their established relationships with major clients to mitigate risks associated with international expansion [32][28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.149 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.75%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 14 million yuan, a decrease of 30.01% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was -26 million yuan [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 757 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 59.83%, with a net profit of 52 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 228.07% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit for Q2 was 30 million yuan, a remarkable growth of 1209.65% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company's energy storage and power sales reached 1.328 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 132.57%. The revenue from energy storage business was 1.008 billion yuan, up 18.77% year-on-year, driven by inventory depletion and recovery in European household storage. The gross margin was 21.28%, significantly down due to product price declines and increased costs from changes in export tax rebate policies [10]. - Other product revenue for H1 was 134 million yuan, a staggering increase of 1751.38%, primarily due to rapid growth in domestic two-wheeled vehicle battery swapping and sodium battery power sources. The gross margin for these products was -4.87% [10]. - In Q2 2025, energy storage and power sales were 0.927 GWh, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 131.17%. The gross margin improved to 20.61%, up 6.32 percentage points from the previous quarter, as operating expenses and fixed costs were diluted [10]. Future Outlook - The company's fundamental turning point has been established, with expectations for growth in overseas industrial storage and emerging markets such as Japan. Domestic lightweight power is also expected to maintain high growth, keeping the shipment side optimistic. The company anticipates net profits of 230 million yuan and 430 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 62 and 33 [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - In August, new construction and completion in the real estate sector continued to hit bottom, with ongoing pressure on sales volume and prices. The new construction area from January to August decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with a 20.3% decline in August alone. Cement production also saw a year-on-year decline of 4.8% from January to August, with a 6.2% drop in August [5][6] - The report recommends focusing on special fabrics and the African supply chain, with leading companies in the existing market being the main investment theme for the year [2][9] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market - The real estate market continues to face downward pressure on sales volume and prices, with national commodity housing sales amount and area decreasing by 7.3% and 4.7% year-on-year respectively from January to August. The decline in sales accelerated in August, with sales amount and area down by 14.0% and 10.6% respectively [6][7] Cement Market - Cement shipments showed a slight recovery in September, with an average shipment rate of approximately 48%, up by 1.6 percentage points month-on-month but down by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. The average price of cement increased by 0.5% month-on-month as companies pushed for price increases to enhance profitability [7][24] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market experienced mixed price movements, with slight improvements in shipments but overall cautious price adjustments. The inventory levels remain high, and the market sentiment is generally cautious, with production capacity pressures persisting [8][40] Recommended Companies - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in special fabrics such as China National Materials Technology and in the African supply chain like Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing. These companies are expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and overseas expansion [9][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The 2025 Cloud Habitat Conference will be held from September 24 to 26 in Hangzhou, focusing on the theme "Cloud Intelligence Integration and Carbon-Silicon Symbiosis," featuring three main forums and over 110 sub-topic activities, showcasing the evolution of AI technology from infrastructure and large models to embodied intelligence [2][5] - The conference serves as a significant platform for observing industry trends and the speed of application implementation, with a strong emphasis on the commercialization of AI agents and investment opportunities [2][12] - Key areas of investment interest include AI infrastructure, AI agent-related companies, the Chinese inference computing industry chain, CSP manufacturers driven by inference demand, and IDC firms collaborating with leading companies [12] Summary by Sections Event Description - The conference will feature three main forums: "Cloud Habitat Outlook," "Cloud Habitat Technology," and "Incalculable Value," discussing AI's future development, technological breakthroughs, and industry application value [12] - The exhibition area will cover 40,000 square meters with over 500 companies showcasing 3,500 products, including AI applications and high-density AI servers [12] Event Commentary - The conference is expected to signal a new phase for China's AI industry, characterized by infrastructure upgrades and large-scale industry implementation [12] - The event will also include interactive experiences such as an AI Super Exchange and various themed activities to enhance participant engagement [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.15 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.00%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 575 million yuan, up 11.31% year-on-year [5][10] - In the second quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.09% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.40%, with a net profit of 341 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.27% [5][10] - The company's comprehensive gross margin stood at 37.21% in the first half of 2025, driven by the recovery in consumer electronics and AI demand across various sectors [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.15 billion yuan and a net profit of 575 million yuan, with a gross margin of 37.21% [5][10] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 2.24 billion yuan and a net profit of 341 million yuan, with a gross margin of 37.01% [10] Product Performance - The company's storage chips and MCU products saw revenue growth of approximately 9.2% and 20% year-on-year, respectively [10] - The company maintains a strong position in the NOR Flash market, ranking second globally, and is expanding its presence in industrial, communication, and automotive applications [10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.623 billion yuan, 2.182 billion yuan, and 2.724 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [10]