行业研究丨深度报告丨保险Ⅱ [Table_Title] 保险框架简驭一："慢牛市"下的戴维斯双击 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 在新的保险盈利分析框架和投资分析框架之下，结合近两年政策、监管及行业发展趋势，判断 保险行业利差有望在中长期持续提升，从而驱动行业盈利能力稳步上行。对应到估值层面，理 应先修复受损的预期，再重新迈向增长的预期，个股推荐新华保险、中国人保、中国人寿、中 国平安。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 谢宇尘 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title2] 保险框架简驭一："慢牛市"下的戴维斯双击 [Table_Summary2] 保险商业模式：利差分析框架 结合近年来保险行业资产端和负债端的变化趋势，我们认为当下保险的盈利模式已高度适用于 金融商业模式中的"重资产利差业务" 分析模型，既经 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 502 million yuan, an increase of 20.85% year-on-year [2][6] - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to technical upgrades in hazardous waste resource utilization projects and challenges in the environmental engineering business [12] - The company expects to see improved profitability and cash flow in the second half of 2025, with potential resource utilization flexibility being released [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.7 billion yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 502 million yuan, up 20.85% year-on-year; and non-recurring net profit was 454 million yuan, up 10.24% year-on-year [2][6] - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 3.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 278 million yuan, an increase of 25.3% year-on-year [2][6] Business Segments - Revenue from hazardous waste resource utilization was 5.205 billion yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year, due to temporary production halts for technical upgrades [12] - Environmental operation revenue was 904 million yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year, while environmental engineering revenue was 592 million yuan, down 40.04% year-on-year due to selective order acceptance [12] Profitability and Cash Flow - The overall gross margin improved to 18.2%, up 3.93 percentage points year-on-year, with significant contributions from higher-margin projects [12] - Operating cash flow net amount improved significantly, reaching 347 million yuan in H1 2025, an increase of approximately 240 million yuan year-on-year [12] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the profitability of resource utilization projects will improve, with a focus on the performance of metal prices such as bismuth, antimony, and tin [12] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 791 million yuan, 911 million yuan, and 1.029 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12.6x, 10.9x, and 9.7x [12]

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨宁波银行（002142.SZ） [Table_Title] 单季增速上双超预期，零售风险预计改善 ——2025 年半年度业绩快报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 上半年营收同比增速 7.9%（二季度单季增速 10.3%），归母净利润同比增速 8.2%（二季度单 季同比增速 10.8%）。预计利息净收入保持双位数以上增速，源于贷款高速扩表+预计净息差相 对稳定。预计非利息收入增速改善，投资等其他非息收入受益债市企稳回暖。扩表强劲，上半 年末贷款较期初大幅增长 13.4%，预计对公政府类业务是今年以来主要投向。上半年末不良率 环比持平于 0.76%，拨备覆盖率环比回升 4pct 至 374%，预计二季度不良净生成率企稳，推断 零售风险指标开始改善。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 宁波银行（002142.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Ta ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 哪些顺周期银行股值得关注？ ——银行股配置重构系列六 报告要点 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 哪些顺周期银行股值得关注？ 2] ——银行股配置重构系列六 [Table_Summary] 近期在反内卷、雅下水电工程等事件驱动下，宏观政策预期升温、市场风险偏好大幅回升。2023 年以来顺周期标签的银行股普遍涨幅落后，估值历史分位非常低。市场开始关注哪些顺周期银 行股当前的配置性价比突出。我们认为，业绩稳定的小微农商行、零售资产质量存在改善预期 的城商行、滞涨的低估值股份行值得关注：1）经济预期压制估值的小微农商行有修复空间（常 熟银行/瑞丰银行）；2）如果收入预期改善，零售特色银行有修复空间（宁波银行/长沙银行）； 3）平安银行估值及涨幅明显落后于股份行，已经充分反映悲观预期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] [Table_S ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] 如何展望 2025 年国补后续效果？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年家电国补再度加码，无论是总量、企业出货或终端销售端，1-5 月整体来看仍保持边际 向上态势。展望全年，我们预计在政策拉动下行业景气大概率或维持在高位，同时考虑到目前 国内存在大量达到安全使用年限但还未进行置换的家电产品，我们认为国补需求前置所造成的 透支程度或相对有限。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 20 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 家用电器 cjzqdt11111 根据一系列测算，我们预计在没有国补的情况下，2025 年空调、冰箱、洗衣机内销量增速分别 为 2.0%、-0.8%、5.1%，若偏保守假设 2025 年家电行业补贴资金规模为 800 亿元，各品类内 销量理论增速将分别提升至 10.6%、3.7%、7.7%。在此 ...

[Table_Title] Meta&甲骨文超算项目扩张，AI 军备竞赛提速 报告要点 [Table_Summary] Meta 公布两大超大规模数据中心项目规划，采用轻量化帐篷结构与现场天然气发电方案提升 部署效率，配套的 DSF 架构推动网络组件用量持续增长；OpenAI 与 Oracle 确认 4.5GW Stargate 扩容协议，海外 AI 基础设施建设加速。我们判断 AI 产业链"戴维斯双击"时刻已到， AI 商业变现提速带动 PE 估值提升，ASIC 渗透率提升背景下，光模块等网络通信环节价值量 占比显著提升，看好光模块&光器件板块。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨通信设备Ⅲ [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517110002 SAC：S0490522050005 SFC：BUX641 于海宁 黄天佑 操俊茹 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 1、国际政治环境变化； 2、云商投入 AI 大模型力度不及预期。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 通信设备Ⅲ cjzqdt11111 [T ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨万华化学（600309.SH） [Table_Title] 边际向好，布局良机 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 根据百川盈孚，截至 2025.7.22，TDI 市场价格 16250 元/吨，相比 2025.4.24 当日价格已上涨 5969 元/吨（+58.1%），价格涨幅明显；公司资本开支放缓，现金流或将改善。 1 万华化学（600309.SH） cjzqdt11111 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 王明 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490521030001 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BVA881 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title2] 边际向好，布局良机 2025-07-24 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 （1）根据百川盈孚，截至 2025.7.22，TDI 市场价格 16250 元/吨，相比 2025.4.24 当日价格 已上涨 5969 元/吨（+58.1%），价格涨幅明显。（2）公司资本开支放 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 本轮债市的调整空间和可能拐点 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年 7 月 15 日-7 月 24 日，债市面临调整压力。当前债市对价格敏感，包括股票为代表的资产 价格，以及各类"反内卷"和供给侧改革相关的商品期货现货价格指数。物价改善的方式之一， 是改善当前的融资挤占问题，使得产出缺口回正；物价改善的另一种方式，是为价格的快速上 涨找到需求方，内部加杠杆、外部出口改善。债市对货币流动性及基本面不太敏感，这两点在 未来一段时间可能都不构成债市交易主线。关注通胀变化及主要整改行业的物价传导情况，观 察 10 年期国债收益率在 1.75%-1.8%之间是否出现拐点。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 本轮债市的调整空间和可能拐点 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 近期（7 月 15 日-7 月 23 日，下同）债市面临 ...

[Table_Title] 古茗深度报告：深渠长流，万店耕新 港股研究丨公司深度丨古茗（1364.HK） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当下，外卖大战拉动单量及高温旺季来临，茶饮子行业景气度空前。古茗为大众现制茶饮龙头， 市场规模大且增速快，尽管市场竞争激烈，但我们看好公司区域密集开店的发展战略，深度自 控的供应链能力效率，高研发投入赋能产品快速推陈出新、紧跟茶饮潮流趋势等，助力公司逐 步拓展高密度开店的地域版图。公司稳扎稳打，区域规模优势模式已经跑通，从区域走向全国 的潜力可观，我们测算预计公司仍有一倍以上开店空间，同时咖啡业务开拓下沉市场新增量， 公司成长空间明确，价值逐渐凸显，有望实现收入业绩的稳健增长。预计公司 2025-2027 年营 收 110.3、127.5 和 147.0 亿元，归母净利润 19.4、22.8 和 26.5 亿元，给予"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 46 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the petrochemical industry [13]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a historical trend of "anti-involution," which is expected to accelerate under current industry conditions. The focus is on high concentration in midstream sectors like refining and ethylene, with attention on policy developments and execution progress. Downstream chemical products are facing profitability pressures, but certain sub-industries with high concentration may benefit from anti-involution policies [4][10]. Summary by Sections Current Focus on "Anti-Involution" in the Petrochemical Industry - The period from October 2022 to June 2025 has seen China's PPI in negative territory for 33 consecutive months, marking a significant historical record. This indicates the formation of "involution negative feedback." Industrial capacity utilization has declined from 78.4% in Q2 2021 to 74% in Q2 2025, approaching the 2016 low of 73.8%. The profitability of industrial enterprises is also declining, with profit margins dropping to 5.39% in 2024, the lowest since 2003. Administrative intervention is needed to promote rebalancing [7][22][20]. Opportunities and Challenges in the Petrochemical Industry - The concept of "anti-involution" has been present in the petrochemical industry for some time. Initial policies aimed at promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction also contain elements of anti-involution. Policies set a production capacity cap of 1 billion tons for the refining industry and implement capacity reduction and replacement policies. The focus is on optimizing the industry structure and layout through control of total capacity, scale, and efficiency indicators [8][32]. Logic of "Anti-Involution" in the Petrochemical Industry - The midstream sector of the petrochemical industry is highly concentrated, primarily among state-owned and private refining enterprises. The report emphasizes the need to monitor the progress of policy-driven capacity clearance for smaller refineries, which may benefit the main refining enterprises. The overall profitability of downstream chemical products is under pressure, but high-concentration companies have a stronger willingness and ability to reduce production [9][42]. Future Policy Tracking and Potential Benefits for the Refining Industry - If the anti-involution policies can effectively eliminate outdated capacity, the industry may gradually optimize supply-side dynamics. This, combined with a slowdown in overseas petrochemical growth, could lead to a new upward cycle for the industry. Key areas of focus include the elimination of outdated refining and chemical capacities, which may benefit related companies [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the refining sector, highlighting key players such as Sinopec, PetroChina, and Huajin Co., along with private refiners like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical. Additionally, it recommends coal chemical leaders like Baofeng Energy and gasification leaders like Satellite Chemical [11].