Market Performance - The weekly trading volume showed a slight recovery, while the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a minor decline[2] - The "Growth+" series indices from Changjiang maintained a positive performance, with the Changjiang Growth Index doubling its year-to-date increase[2] - The weekly performance of the Changjiang Dual Innovation Growth Index was notably strong[6] Style and Sector Analysis - The trading activity of the dividend style continued to recover, while the crowding degree of the growth style slightly decreased[6] - High profitability quality stocks saw a sustained increase in trading activity, while micro-cap stocks' crowding degree continued to decline[2] - The consumer discretionary sector led the weekly performance among industry sectors, followed by information technology and hardware[28] Fund Performance - The fund-heavy 50 index outperformed other fund-heavy indices, with a weekly return of 1.62%[22] - The overall fund-heavy index maintained an upward trend during the week[23] - The Northbound heavy series underperformed compared to the Changjiang All A index since the beginning of 2025[26] Thematic Trends - The Changjiang Manufacturing Champion Selected Index showed strong weekly performance, leading the thematic indices[34] - The Changjiang Low-Carbon Leader 30 Index achieved a weekly return of 4.25%[34]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 关注反内卷下核增产能退出风险 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 除了超产核查，煤炭"反内卷"政策工具箱还有哪些措施可以期待？我们认为，考虑到 2021 年 增产保供政策实施以来存在先放量后补齐产能置换手续的核增产能，且 2025 年底或是其兑现 产能置换承诺的截止时间，因此政策要求下，这部分产能存在退出风险，则供给边际收敛下煤 价及板块有望迎来上行催化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 关注反内卷下核增产能退出风险 [Table_Summary2] 最新跟踪：节前冬储补库需求释 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 金融工程丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 红利质量占优，可选消费、信息技术与硬件 板块领涨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周 A 股市场呈现分化走势，双创板块相对占优，科创 50 和创业板指周度收益领先，万得微 盘、上证 50 以及防御属性较强的中证红利指数表现欠佳；红利内细分板块来看，红利质量占 优。从市场表现来看，本周 A 股内行业持续分化，可选消费和信息技术与硬件板块涨幅领先， 金融和必选消费板块明显回调；电子板块内部光学元件和电子专用设备表现活跃，周度涨幅大 幅领先电子其他子赛道。策略表现上，虽然本周各组合均未能战胜各自基准，但今年年初以来， 攻守兼备红利 50 组合相对中证红利全收益超额仍较为显著。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 冷旭晟 蔡文捷 覃川桃 SAC：S0490524080001 SAC：S0490523120001 SAC：S0490513030001 SFC：BUT353 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 主动量化产品周报（十） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 红利质量占优，可选消费、信息技术与 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.053 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.91%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.058 billion yuan, also up 41.12% quarter-on-quarter. The interim dividend was approximately 1.569 billion yuan, accounting for 87% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [2][4] Summary by Sections Copper Segment - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a copper production of 92,800 tons and sales of 92,700 tons, generating revenue of 7.562 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.166 billion yuan. The company’s investment income from its 30.78% stake in Giant Dragon Copper was 1.264 billion yuan, contributing 70.22% to the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year increase of 4.09 billion yuan, or 47.82% [5] Lithium Segment - The company produced 5,170 tons of lithium carbonate in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, with sales of 4,470 tons, down 41% year-on-year. The average selling price (including tax) was 67,470 yuan per ton, while the average sales cost was 41,478 yuan per ton. The revenue from lithium carbonate was 267 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.90%, with a gross margin of 30.53%, down 19.75 percentage points year-on-year [5] Potassium Segment - The company produced 485,200 tons of potassium chloride in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, with sales of 535,900 tons, down 1% year-on-year. The average selling price (including tax) was 2,845 yuan per ton, an increase of 25.57% year-on-year. The average sales cost was 996 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.36% year-on-year. Consequently, the revenue from potassium chloride was 1.399 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.60%, with a gross margin of 61.84%, up 13.56 percentage points year-on-year [6] Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the development potential of the three major business segments—copper, lithium, and potassium—remains promising. The second phase of the Giant Dragon project is expected to commence production by the end of 2025, with projected copper production reaching 92,000 to 108,000 tons. The long-term plan for the Giant Dragon project aims for a capacity of 600,000 tons, significantly enhancing profitability. Additionally, the accelerated development of the Tibet salt lake project is anticipated to inject potential lithium resources into the company’s future growth [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [9] Core Insights - In August, the national power generation reached 936.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, while the cumulative generation from January to August was 6419.3 billion kWh, up 1.5% year-on-year [2][19] - Thermal power generation in August grew by 1.7% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points month-on-month due to weakening demand from high temperatures [6][54] - Hydropower generation saw a significant decline of 10.1% year-on-year in August, with the drop expanding by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month [7][25] - Non-hydropower clean energy showed a mixed performance, with wind power generation increasing by 20.2% year-on-year and solar power generation rising by 15.9% year-on-year, although the latter's growth rate decreased by 12.8 percentage points month-on-month [7][32] Summary by Sections Power Generation Data - In August, the total power generation was 936.3 billion kWh, with thermal power contributing 627.4 billion kWh, hydropower at 147.9 billion kWh, nuclear power at 42.6 billion kWh, wind power at 64.5 billion kWh, and solar power at 53.8 billion kWh [18] - For the first eight months of 2025, thermal power generation was 4175.3 billion kWh, down 0.8% year-on-year, while hydropower was 838.7 billion kWh, down 5.5% year-on-year [18] Clean Energy Performance - Wind power generation in August increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 20.2%, while solar power generation grew by 15.9% [7][40] - Nuclear power generation maintained a steady growth of 5.9% year-on-year in August, although the growth rate decreased by 2.4 percentage points month-on-month [7][43] Market Trends - The report highlights a recovery in green certificate trading, with 48.38 million certificates traded in August, a year-on-year increase of 105% [33] - The average price of green certificates rose to 5.66 yuan per certificate in August, reflecting a 22.77% month-on-month increase [33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Guodian Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation [11][60][61]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 4.833 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.71%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 84 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 101.62% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.32 million yuan, also up by 100.03% year-on-year [2][4]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.248 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 12.99%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 20 million yuan, a significant decrease of 119.05% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was a loss of 4.3 million yuan, down 197% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Tianqi Lithium achieved total revenue of 4.833 billion yuan, down 24.71% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 84 million yuan, up 101.62% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.32 million yuan, up 100.03% year-on-year [2][4]. - For the second quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.248 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.99% from the previous quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 20 million yuan, down 119.05% quarter-on-quarter, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was a loss of 4.3 million yuan, down 197% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Market Conditions - The report highlights that lithium prices have been declining rapidly, which has increased the company's profitability pressure. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the second quarter of 2025 was 65,300 yuan per ton, a decrease of 14% quarter-on-quarter [11]. - The report also notes that the Greenbush project contributed a net profit of 584 million yuan to Tianqi Lithium in the first half of 2025, with a production volume of 340,000 tons of lithium concentrate in the second quarter, which remained stable [11]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company may see an operational turning point in the third quarter of 2025, as the lithium prices are expected to rebound from the current low levels [11]. - The completion of the CGP3 plant is anticipated to be delayed until December 2025, which will increase the company's lithium concentrate production capacity to 2.14 million tons per year [11].

行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 反内卷下，钢铁表外产能的退出路径 报告要点 区别于过往中央环保督查组主要聚焦煤炭、铝土矿等矿山采选环节的污染问题，本轮督察涉及多地 [Table_Summary] 钢铁表外产能违建问题，引发市场对表外产能退出路径的关注。从反馈问题上看，（1）山西省：个 别铸造企业批小建大，以铸造之名行炼钢之实。（2）陕西省：部分地方遏制"两高"项目盲目上马 不力，违规建设限制类的化工项目、钢铁项目，个别地方"地条钢"屡查屡犯。（3）山东省：个别 企业未经审批和产能置换，新增炼钢产能。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 反内卷下，钢铁表外产能的退出路径 最新跟踪：季节性+流动性助 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [13] Core Insights - The transportation industry is expected to see improvements in profitability across various sub-sectors in Q3 2025, driven by domestic demand recovery and resilient international demand [2][6][7][8][9][10][11][12] Summary by Sub-Sector Aviation - The aviation sector is experiencing subdued demand but is benefiting from reduced costs, leading to an overall improvement in profitability for Q3 2025. The international flight recovery remains strong, and oil prices have significantly decreased [6][19][24] Airports - Domestic airport traffic is recovering, with international flights also increasing. Revenue is expected to improve steadily, with key airports benefiting from both domestic and international demand growth [2][6][24][26] Express Delivery - The "anti-involution" policy is driving price increases in the express delivery sector, leading to improved profitability for e-commerce deliveries. However, operational costs are temporarily pressuring profit margins [2][6][28][30] Logistics - The logistics sector is stabilizing, with major players expected to see profit growth due to improved supply chain performance and resilient cross-border logistics profitability [2][6][7][31] Maritime Transport - The maritime sector is witnessing a divergence in profitability among different shipping types. While container shipping faces challenges, oil tanker profits are improving due to favorable market conditions [2][6][8][33][37] Ports - Port operations are expected to see improved profitability in bulk cargo handling, while container throughput remains resilient despite external pressures [2][6][9][39] Highways - Highway traffic is relatively stable, with a slight increase in profitability anticipated for Q3 2025, supported by steady freight and passenger traffic [2][10][41] Railways - Railway passenger and freight volumes are showing mixed trends, with a focus on opportunities arising from high-speed rail transformations. Overall, passenger transport is expected to grow, while freight transport is improving [2][11][43][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [12] Core Insights - The report highlights the strategic importance of Xinjiang as a key area for investment and development, particularly in infrastructure projects, due to its geographical advantages and government support [6][8] - Significant infrastructure projects are set to accelerate in Xinjiang, including the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and coal chemical projects, which are expected to create investment opportunities for related companies [7][10] - The report emphasizes the transition of Xinjiang from a coal base to a coal chemical base, with substantial capacity and project approvals in the coal chemical sector [8] Summary by Sections Government Policy and Strategic Importance - The State Council's white paper on Xinjiang outlines a new strategy for development, emphasizing the region's role in the Belt and Road Initiative and its importance in national energy security [2][6] - Xinjiang is positioned as a critical hub connecting mainland China with European economies, benefiting from favorable policies and funding [6] Major Projects and Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several major projects, including the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which is set to begin construction with an investment of approximately 8 billion USD [9] - The report notes that Xinjiang's coal chemical projects are advancing, with a total investment of 700-800 billion CNY and multiple projects receiving environmental approvals [8] Company Focus and Order Release - Companies such as China Chemical and China Railway Construction are expected to benefit from increased orders due to the acceleration of infrastructure projects in Xinjiang [10] - The report highlights the strong technical capabilities of China Chemical in the coal chemical sector, which is likely to enhance its order flow and performance [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector [11] Core Insights - Recent adjustments in bank stocks have led to accelerated share buybacks by state-owned shareholders and management, indicating strong recognition of investment value [2][6] - The systematic increase in holdings by state-owned shareholders reflects a demand to optimize financial equity layouts amid asset scarcity, highlighting the core advantages of low valuations, stable profits, and dividends in bank stocks [7][41] - The report emphasizes the long-term investment value of regional leading city commercial banks, particularly after two rounds of debt restructuring [7][41] Summary by Sections Shareholder Activity - In the past week, banks such as Qingdao Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Chengdu Bank have disclosed progress in share buybacks by state-owned shareholders, showcasing their confidence in investment value [2][6] - Nanjing Bank has seen its state-owned shareholder, Nanjing High-tech, increase its stake by 1.05%, bringing its total holding to 9.99% [6][41] - Other banks, including Suzhou Bank and Qingdao Bank, have also reported significant buyback plans, with Suzhou Bank's shareholders increasing their holdings by 856 million yuan earlier this year [6][41] Market Performance - The banking index has experienced a cumulative decline of 4.1% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.6% and the ChiNext index by 6.4% [9][20] - Despite the recent downturn, the long-term investment logic remains solid, with individual stocks like Qilu Bank showing resilience due to management buybacks [9][20] Dividend and Earnings Outlook - The report notes that the expected dividend yield for leading city commercial banks has risen to around 5%, with specific banks like Jiangsu Bank and Chengdu Bank reaching yields of 5.5% [7][8] - The stability of the banking sector's fundamentals is highlighted, with expectations for net interest income to maintain stable growth despite market fluctuations [8][40] - Mid-term dividends are set to commence, with several banks planning to distribute dividends in the fourth quarter, creating an attractive entry point for absolute return funds [8][40] Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the recent valuation adjustments have created significant investment opportunities in bank stocks, particularly for those focusing on dividend yields [7][44] - The ongoing adjustments in the bond market and the anticipated stabilization of loan interest rates are expected to support the banks' revenue streams [8][44]