丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] 产业亮点：从 2026CES 看智能家居机器人产品 趋势 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从 2026 年 CES 来看：扫地机器人方面，轮足、机械臂加持或逐步打开三维层面的想象空间， 本质来看，产品进化方向或仍围绕清洁效果、清洁效率、清洁范围及运维成本等要素不断深化； 割草机器人方面，技术升级围绕大面积切割、免基站设置、提升越障能力、边缘切割等维度展 开，九号于 2026 CES 强势推出 9 款产品，综合竞争力突显；泳池机器人方面，基站、机械臂 等升级思路或与扫地机、割草机赛道思路较为接近。综合来看，中国企业引领智能家居机器人 产品升级，看好产品技术升级驱动渗透空间打开，及突出产品能力加持下中国企业份额机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 家用电器 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 产业亮点：从2]2026CES 看智能家居机器人 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January 12th to January 18th, the planned issuance of local bonds is 702.01 million yuan, including 227.56 million yuan of new bonds (0.00 million yuan of new general bonds and 227.56 million yuan of new special bonds) and 474.45 million yuan of refinancing bonds (85.69 million yuan of refinancing general bonds and 388.76 million yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5]. - From January 5th to January 11th, the actual issuance of local bonds is 1176.64 million yuan, including 884.34 million yuan of new bonds (10.00 million yuan of new general bonds and 874.34 million yuan of new special bonds) and 292.30 million yuan of refinancing bonds (0.00 million yuan of refinancing general bonds and 292.30 million yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance 3.1.1 Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure - From January 5th to January 11th, the net supply of local bonds is 1147 million yuan; from January 12th to January 18th, the forecast net supply of local bonds is 639 million yuan [18]. - The issuance situation of different types of bonds from January 5th to January 11th and January 12th to January 18th is presented in figures [14][18]. 3.1.2 Comparison of Planned Issuance and Actual Issuance - The planned and actual issuance amounts of new bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds are compared, and relevant data are shown in figures [16][20]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply 3.2.1 New Bond Issuance Progress - As of January 11th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 0.13%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds is 1.75% [28][29]. 3.2.2 Refinancing Bond Net Supply - As of January 11th, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities in the current year is presented in figures [28][29]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details 3.3.1 Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics - As of January 11th, the fifth round of the second batch of special refinancing bonds has a total planned issuance of 20000.00 million yuan, and the fifth round of the third batch has a total planned issuance of 511.06 million yuan, with an additional 218.76 million yuan newly disclosed this week. The top - three regions in terms of the disclosed scale of the fifth round of the third batch are Shandong (256.09 million yuan), Ningbo (114.74 million yuan), and Hubei (104.02 million yuan) [7]. - The issuance statistics of special refinancing bonds from different rounds are presented in figures [34]. 3.3.2 Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics - As of January 11th, the total planned issuance of special new special bonds in 2026 is 33.30 million yuan, and since 2023, the total planned issuance is 25546.72 million yuan. The top - three regions in terms of the disclosed scale are Jiangsu (2440.35 million yuan), Hubei (1377.69 million yuan), and Henan (1325.34 million yuan). The top - two regions in terms of the 2026 disclosed scale are Shandong (22.30 million yuan) and Zhejiang (11.00 million yuan) [7]. - The issuance statistics of special new special bonds from 2023 to 2026 are presented in figures [37]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading 3.4.1 Primary - Secondary Spread - The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in figures, showing the spreads and their changes on different terms on January 4th and January 11th, 2026 [41]. 3.4.2 Regional Secondary Spread - The regional secondary spreads of local bonds in different regions from October 2025 to January 2026 are presented in tables [42]. 3.5 New Special Bond Investment Directions 3.5.1 Project Investment Direction Monthly Statistics - The investment directions of new special bonds are presented in figures, with the latest month's statistics only considering the investment directions of issued new bonds [44].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a phase of "supply optimization and weak demand recovery," with inventory destocking ongoing in Q4. Short-term price recovery is expected due to controlled supply from Moutai, with attention on Spring Festival sales and inventory movement [2][5] - The demand for mass-market products is expected to show marginal improvement, with January anticipated to see a strong start due to delayed Spring Festival stocking [2][5] - The report recommends focusing on products with strong seasonal effects and high performance realization, particularly in sectors like leisure snacks, restaurant supply chains, condiments, soft drinks, and dairy products [4][26] Summary by Sections Spring Festival Stocking Strategy - The Spring Festival stocking strategy should focus on products with strong seasonal effects and high performance realization. The timing of the Spring Festival can impact the performance of listed companies, especially in years when it falls later in the calendar [4][15] - Products with clear gifting scenarios and positive market sentiment in specific segments are prioritized for opportunity selection. The continuation of the post-Spring Festival market will depend on actual sales and positive Q1 performance feedback [4][26] CPI Trends - The food CPI has been strengthening since December, surpassing service and overall CPI. This trend is supported by supply clearing in certain items and seasonal demand recovery, which together bolster price improvements [32][34] - The CPI-PPI differential remains positive, supporting the continued improvement in profitability for food manufacturing companies [37] Market Performance Review - Since the beginning of 2026, the food and beverage index has increased by 2.21%, lagging behind the CSI 300, which rose by 2.79%. The performance of the liquor sector has remained stable, while the dairy sector has seen declines [6][40] - Soft drinks and leisure snacks have led the market in terms of growth related to Spring Festival stocking, while dairy and meat products have experienced declines [6][40] Industry Dynamics - The industry is increasingly focused on value deepening and structural optimization. Companies are prioritizing supply-demand balance, healthy pricing systems, and profit structure improvements rather than merely pursuing sales growth [7][46] - Food safety and supply chain resilience remain foundational to brand trust, highlighted by recent global recalls and supply chain disruptions [7][46]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qilu Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - Qilu Bank's stock price has undergone sufficient valuation adjustment since Q3 2025, influenced by market trading factors. The bank is entering a new three-year planning cycle in 2026, with management focusing on stable and sustainable growth. In the current macroeconomic environment, high-quality city commercial banks with stable growth capabilities are considered scarce assets. The bank is expected to achieve a trillion-scale asset size in the new three-year plan [5][11] - Loan growth is projected to be between 13% and 15% from 2025 to 2027, with a continuous increase in loan market share. Net interest income is expected to drive revenue growth. The long-term growth path is clear, and there is room for valuation recovery in PB-ROE [11][20] - The bank's dividend yield is expected to be 4.65% in 2025 and 5.20% in 2026, meeting the needs of long-term investors [11] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Qilu Bank has a long-standing management philosophy focused on stable and sustainable growth. The bank's asset scale has achieved an annual compound growth rate of 16.2% over the past three years, with profit growth at 16.9%, ranking among the top in the banking sector. The bank aims to reach a trillion in assets by 2027, requiring an annual growth rate of at least 12.2% over the next two years [11][20] Loan and Revenue Growth - The bank's loan growth is expected to be between 13% and 15% from 2025 to 2027. As of mid-2025, Qilu Bank's loan market share in Shandong province is 2.3%, indicating significant room for improvement compared to other leading city commercial banks. The bank's credit structure is primarily focused on state-owned enterprises, with retail loan demand remaining weak [11][20] Asset Quality - Qilu Bank's asset quality is at its best since its listing, with a continuous decline in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios and a net NPL generation rate dropping to a historical low of 0.31% (annualized) in the first half of 2025. The bank's credit cost is expected to decrease further, allowing for double-digit profit growth in 2026 [11][20] Valuation and Dividend - The bank's PB valuation is projected to be 0.71x in 2025 and 0.65x in 2026, indicating undervaluation relative to a 12% ROE. The bank may slightly increase its dividend payout ratio in 2025 to offset the dilution effect of convertible bonds, with expected dividend yields of 4.65% and 5.20% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [11][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The CES 2026 and Alibaba Cloud's intelligent hardware exhibition showcased the progress of AI deployment at the edge, indicating that edge AI may become a new paradigm for AI implementation [2][4] - As AI large models continue to iterate, the report suggests that AI deployment will be the core of the next phase of the artificial intelligence industry, with edge AI benefiting from improved model performance and penetration rates [2][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of the entire edge AI industry chain, particularly focusing on edge AI model and application vendors [11] Summary by Sections Event Description - The CES 2026 took place from January 6 to 9 in Las Vegas, while the Alibaba Cloud intelligent hardware exhibition occurred from January 8 to 11 in Shenzhen, highlighting the current advancements in edge AI [4] Market Trends - Hardware forms are breaking traditional boundaries, with edge AI expected to become a key platform for AI deployment. The trend shows AI increasingly embedded in wearable devices, personal terminals, and computers, evolving into intelligent assistants for users [11] - Major companies like Alibaba, ByteDance, and JD.com are focusing on consumer-grade hardware, indicating a strategic positioning in the edge AI market [11] Market Size and Growth - The Chinese AI hardware market (excluding AI phones and cars) is projected to reach 1,102 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4%. The market is expected to maintain rapid growth over the next five years, driven by traditional appliances, smart personal devices, education, and smart home hardware [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in Q4 2025 are expected to be approximately 8.76 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%. The profitability in Q4 may show differentiation compared to the same period last year, with expectations for a quarter-on-quarter improvement [2][5] - The revenue from automotive parts is anticipated to grow steadily quarter-on-quarter, but profitability may face pressure due to factors such as raw material costs and exchange rates [2][5] - The wholesale sales of heavy trucks are projected to be 314,000 units in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [2][5] - The overall sales of buses are expected to see a significant quarter-on-quarter increase during the peak season, with sales of large and medium buses reaching 44,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.2% [2][5] - The total sales of motorcycles are estimated to be around 4.73 million units in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.0% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.2% [2][6] Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - Q4 2025 wholesale sales are expected to be about 8.76 million units, down 1% year-on-year but up 14% quarter-on-quarter. New energy vehicle sales are projected at 4.84 million units, up 13% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter [5] Automotive Parts - Revenue is expected to grow steadily quarter-on-quarter, but profitability may be pressured by raw material and exchange rate factors [5] Heavy Trucks - Q4 2025 wholesale sales are projected at 314,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 43.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [5] Buses - Large and medium bus sales are expected to reach 44,000 units in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.2% [5] Motorcycles - Total motorcycle sales are estimated at 4.73 million units in Q4 2025, reflecting an 11.0% year-on-year increase but a 6.2% quarter-on-quarter decrease [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - In December, BYD's overseas sales reached a record high of 133,000 units, with total sales of 420,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 18.3% and a month-on-month decline of 12.5% [2][12] - The cumulative sales for 2025 reached 4.602 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, while cumulative overseas sales reached 1.05 million units, a year-on-year increase of 145% [12] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence and enhancing its high-end product offerings, with new factories established in Thailand, Uzbekistan, Brazil, and Hungary, and new entries into Vietnam, Pakistan, and Tunisia [12] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - December total sales were 420,000 units, with passenger vehicle sales at 415,000 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 18.6% and a month-on-month decline of 12.7% [5][12] - High-end brands performed well, with sales for Ocean King, Equation Leopard, and Tengshi at 344, 51, and 18 thousand units respectively, showing year-on-year changes of -29.5%, +345.5%, and +20.5% [12] Overseas Expansion - December export sales were 133,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 132.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.9% [12] - The company aims to enhance its overseas sales through a diversified product matrix and the launch of plug-in hybrid models [12] Financial Projections - BYD's projected net profit for 2025 is 35 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 25X [12] - The company is expected to benefit from economies of scale as overseas and high-end sales volumes increase, leading to improved profitability in the second half of the year [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - Focus on upstream materials for commercial aerospace, with a strong recommendation for UTG glass due to its significant market potential [6][2] - The cement market is experiencing seasonal declines in shipments, while glass inventory has decreased month-on-month [8] - For 2026, three main lines of opportunity are identified: stock chain, Africa chain, and AI chain [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Cement Market - After the New Year, domestic cement market demand continues to weaken due to factors like funding shortages and temperature drops, with key enterprises' shipment rates around 39%, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month [8] - National cement prices have slightly declined, with price drops observed in regions like Zhejiang, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang, ranging from 10 to 30 yuan per ton [23] - The national average cement price is 357.26 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.32 yuan month-on-month [24] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market has seen a slight rebound in prices, driven by speculative demand, with a total inventory reduction of 183 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.40% [8][36] - The average price of glass is 61.99 yuan per weight box, up 0.05 yuan month-on-month, but down 12.44 yuan year-on-year [36] - The production capacity of float glass has decreased, with 209 out of 262 production lines operational, resulting in a daily melting capacity of 149,535 tons [8] Investment Opportunities - UTG glass is projected to have a demand of approximately 1.2 million square meters based on the forecast of 6,000 satellites launched annually, translating to a market space of 6 billion yuan [6] - Carbon fiber demand is estimated at around 1,000 tons for satellite applications, with high profit elasticity due to the use of high-modulus series [7] - The report highlights three main investment themes for 2026: optimizing demand and supply in the stock chain, leveraging growth in the African market, and capitalizing on the upgrade trend in AI electronic fabrics [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7] Core Insights - The non-bank sector has shown strong performance this week, with brokers experiencing increased trading activity while maintaining historical highs. The insurance sector is expected to see improved long-term ROE and valuation recovery, indicating a rising cost-effectiveness for overall allocation [2][4] - Recommendations include stable profit growth and dividend rates for Jiangsu Jinzu, high dividend yield for China Ping An, and companies with strong business models and market positions like China Pacific Insurance. Additional recommendations include New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [4] Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 2.6% this week, with a year-to-date performance of 2.6%, ranking 21 out of 31 sectors. The average daily trading volume in the two markets reached 28,519.51 billion yuan, up 34.00% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 2.77%, up 61.14 basis points [5][15] - The market has seen a recovery in trading activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 5.11% and the bond index declining by 0.23%. Long-term interest rates have increased, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 3.09 basis points to 1.8782% [5][39] Insurance Sector Overview - In November 2025, the cumulative premium income reached 57,629 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.56%. Life insurance premiums increased by 9.06%, while property insurance premiums rose by 3.88% [19][20] - The total assets of insurance companies reached 40.65 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies holding 35.75 trillion yuan, reflecting a stable asset allocation with a slight decrease in deposit proportions and an increase in bond and equity fund allocations [25][26] Brokerage and Investment Business - The brokerage business has seen a recovery in trading volumes, with a two-market average daily trading volume of 28,519.51 billion yuan, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability as commission rates stabilize [40] - The investment business has also rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.79% and the ChiNext Index by 3.89%. The proportion of equity investments in brokerage assets is approximately 10%-30%, while bond investments account for 70%-90% [44] Financing Activities - In December 2025, equity financing reached 663.12 billion yuan, a 30.9% increase, while bond financing totaled 7.34 trillion yuan, up 4.0%. This indicates a positive trend in financing activities, with expectations for increased stock underwriting in the future [51] - The asset management sector saw a rebound in new issuance, with 61.14 billion units issued in December, a 39.0% increase compared to previous months [53]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The positive factors in the stock index market are continuously emerging. Policies in the consumption and real estate sectors are working together to support economic recovery. The significant rebound of the construction industry PMI and the stabilization of building material prices indicate the potential for investment to stabilize. The expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut in January, along with the strengthening of the exchange rate and the new round of public - fund allocation, will improve market liquidity. However, potential risks and sentiment changes need to be monitored, and the stock index may fluctuate [6]. - The decline momentum of the bond market has weakened, but it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations in the medium - term. The bond market may fluctuate [11]. - In terms of economic data, in November, the CPI and PPI showed signs of recovery, exports were mixed, industrial production and fixed - asset investment were weak, social retail sales declined, and the growth rate of social financing remained stable [18][21][23] Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy - Strategy outlook: Range - bound fluctuations [9]. - Stock index performance review: Last week, all major A - share broad - based indexes closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.82% [10]. - Core view: Positive factors are emerging, but potential risks and sentiment changes need attention, and the stock index may fluctuate. IC, IM and other related indexes are relatively strong [10]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the broader market index may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [10]. Treasury Bond Strategy - Treasury bond performance review: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.10%, 0.01%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [11]. - Core view: The decline momentum of the bond market has weakened, but it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations in the medium - term, and the bond market may fluctuate [11]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [11]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In December, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1%, returning to the expansion range for the first time in 8 months. The high - tech manufacturing PMI increased significantly, and large and medium - sized enterprises led the improvement [18]. CPI - In November, the year - on - year increase of CPI and the month - on - month increase of PPI were the result of seasonal factors, low - base effects, and "anti - involution". The CPI and PPI are expected to continue to rebound [21]. Exports and Imports - In November, China's exports were 330.35 billion US dollars, imports were 218.67 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 111.68 billion US dollars. The exports of labor - intensive products, mechanical and electrical products, and high - tech products showed different trends. The overall exports in November were not weak, but there may be pressure in December [23][24]. Industrial Added Value - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value decreased to 4.8%. The reasons may be the suppression of "anti - involution" on key industries and the high base established by strong production after policy implementation last year [25][28]. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6%. In November, the fixed - asset investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, with a slight rebound compared to October. Different types and directions of investment showed different trends [31]. Social Retail - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales decreased to 1.3%, the weakest since 2023. The reasons include the weakening of durable - goods consumption, the weak "Double Eleven" sales, and the weak performance of post - real - estate cycle consumption [34]. Social Financing - In November, the new social financing was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 trillion yuan. Corporate bonds and non - standard financing were the main supports, while government bonds and credit were the main drags. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing remained stable at 8.5% [37].