Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face a loss in 2024, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from -200 million to -180 million yuan, primarily due to a decline in defense product revenues [5][6]. - The company has a backlog of defense product orders totaling approximately 1.49 billion yuan, with expectations for a turnaround in military product performance and growth in civilian product sales [6][7]. - A planned capital increase of up to 1.02 billion yuan aims to enhance production capabilities in high-performance optical materials and advanced components, as well as digital R&D for precision-guided products [6]. - Strategic cooperation between major defense groups is anticipated to enrich the asset base available to the company, enhancing its market position [7]. - Forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are -188 million yuan, 76 million yuan, and 150 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 85 and 43 for 2025-2026 [7]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 12.52 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6.4 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a total share capital of 509 million shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 38% and a current price-to-earnings ratio of 92.06 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company, Narui Radar, is expected to achieve a revenue of 320-350 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 51%-65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75-90 million yuan, indicating a growth of 18%-42% [4] - The company has signed contracts for new projects worth approximately 800 million yuan, with significant growth in sales of weather radar and hydrological measurement radar [5] - The company is actively expanding into low-altitude, civil air traffic control, and overseas markets, which presents substantial growth potential [5] - The planned acquisition of 100% equity in Tianjin Sigma Microelectronics is aimed at creating a second growth curve for the company, enhancing its vertical integration strategy [6] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 83.12 million yuan, 424 million yuan, and 529 million yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 173, 34, and 27 times respectively, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [6] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 66.50 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 14.4 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 5.6 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 2.17 billion shares, with 850 million shares in circulation [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 6.9% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 154.65 [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: DeepSeek-R1 - **Model Construction Idea**: The DeepSeek-R1 model leverages a mixture of experts (MoE) architecture and dynamic routing technology to reduce inference costs while maintaining high performance[16] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Mixture of Experts (MoE)**: Integrates multiple "expert" models to enhance overall model performance. A gating network determines which expert(s) should handle specific inputs[27] - **Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO)**: Eliminates the need for a separate critic model in reinforcement learning, reducing training costs by using group scores to estimate the baseline[31] - **Self-evolution Process**: The model improves its reasoning capabilities through reinforcement learning, exhibiting complex behaviors like reflection and exploration of alternative approaches[39][41] - **Cold Start**: Introduces high-quality long CoT data to stabilize the model during the initial training phase[42] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates significant cost efficiency and high performance, making it a groundbreaking development in AI applications[16][43] Model Name: DeepSeek-V2 - **Model Construction Idea**: The DeepSeek-V2 model is a powerful MoE language model designed with innovative architectures like Multi-head Latent Attention (MLA)[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Multi-head Latent Attention (MLA)**: Improves performance over traditional Multi-head Attention (MHA) by reducing KV cache, enhancing inference efficiency[25] - **Mixture of Experts (MoE)**: Similar to DeepSeek-R1, it uses a gating network to activate specific experts based on input, optimizing resource usage and performance[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model shows advantages in performance, training cost, and inference efficiency, making it a strong, economical, and efficient language model[23][27] Model Name: DeepSeek-V3 - **Model Construction Idea**: The DeepSeek-V3 model aims to enhance open-source model performance and push towards general artificial intelligence[33] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Multi-Token Prediction (MTP)**: Enhances model performance by predicting multiple future tokens at each position, increasing training signal density[34] - **FP8 Mixed Precision Training**: Improves computational efficiency and reduces memory usage while maintaining model accuracy by using lower precision data types[36] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively balances computational efficiency and performance, making it suitable for large-scale model training[33][36] Model Backtesting Results - **DeepSeek-R1**: Demonstrates significant cost efficiency, achieving performance comparable to ChatGPT-01 with much lower training costs[43] - **DeepSeek-V2**: Shows superior performance and efficiency in training and inference compared to traditional models[23][27] - **DeepSeek-V3**: Achieves high computational efficiency and maintains model accuracy, making it effective for large-scale training[33][36] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Scaling Laws - **Factor Construction Idea**: Describes the predictable relationship between model performance and the scale of model parameters, training data, and computational resources[21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Scaling Laws**: As model parameters, training data, and computational resources increase, model performance improves in a predictable manner[21] - **Data Quality**: High-quality data shifts the optimal allocation strategy towards model expansion[22] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a strong guideline for resource planning and model performance optimization[21][22] Factor Backtesting Results - **Scaling Laws**: Demonstrates a predictable improvement in model performance with increased resources, validating the factor's effectiveness in guiding model development[21][22]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and agricultural modernization, highlighting the dual focus on "safeguarding the bottom line" and "seeking innovation" as outlined in the 2025 Central Document No. 1 [5][6]. - The document stresses the need for continuous enhancement of the supply capacity of important agricultural products and the consolidation of poverty alleviation achievements [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is 2515.63, with a 52-week high of 2927.53 and a low of 2110.64 [1]. Key Highlights - **Food Security**: The document prioritizes food security, stating that it is a national security issue, and aims to ensure no large-scale return to poverty. In 2024, China's grain production exceeded 1.4 trillion jin, establishing a solid foundation for food security [7]. - **Support for Livestock Development**: The document addresses the challenges faced by the livestock industry, emphasizing the need for capacity monitoring and adjustment for pigs, and support for beef and dairy industries [8]. - **Technological Empowerment**: The report highlights the significance of agricultural technology innovation, introducing the concept of "new quality productivity" in agriculture, which includes the application of biotechnology, drones, AI, and digital technologies [9][10]. - **Rural Income Growth**: The document focuses on consolidating and expanding poverty alleviation results, with county-level development as a key area for rural revitalization. It includes policies to stabilize agricultural prices and enhance social security for farmers [11][12]. - **Civilized Rural Construction**: The report emphasizes the need for infrastructure development and the improvement of rural governance, addressing current governance issues and enhancing the rural living environment [14][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "food security" and "new quality productivity" as key investment themes, recommending attention to seed industry companies and agricultural technology development [14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that gold has outperformed silver, aligning with the previous recommendation to go long on the gold-silver ratio. Following the release of US consumer data, the likelihood of stagflation has increased, favoring gold over silver during such periods. COMEX gold prices rose by 1.93%, while silver increased by 0.52%. The report suggests that during stagflation, gold is the optimal investment, and it is recommended to go long on both the gold-silver and gold-copper ratios [5]. - The expectation of the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is seen as a positive for copper prices, although there are concerns about global demand due to potential trade barriers in 2025. LME copper prices increased by 1.42% in response to these expectations [6]. - Aluminum prices are steadily rising, with domestic aluminum prices increasing by 0.80%. The report notes that the price of alumina has dropped to 3300 CNY/ton, but the overall demand is expected to improve, supporting aluminum prices [6]. - Antimony prices have slightly increased, with domestic prices around 150,000 CNY/ton and overseas prices at approximately 50,000 USD/ton. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in export demand, which may narrow the price gap between domestic and international markets [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is drafting new regulations for rare earth mining, which could lead to a new round of price increases in the rare earth market. The report indicates that the ongoing conflict in Myanmar is contributing to supply shortages, which may further drive up prices [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4593.64, with a 52-week high of 4979.91 and a low of 3700.9 [2]. Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: LME copper up by 1.42%, aluminum up by 1.10%, zinc up by 1.69%, lead up by 1.01%, and tin up by 2.73%. In precious metals, COMEX gold rose by 1.93%, and silver by 0.52% [19]. Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed an increase in copper by 9963 tons, a decrease in aluminum by 11727 tons, a decrease in zinc by 6744 tons, an increase in lead by 1522 tons, an increase in tin by 462 tons, and an increase in nickel by 6724 tons [28].

行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4593.64 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 4979.91 | | 52 周最低 | | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-02 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 24% 有色金属 沪深300 证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 2025 年 2 月 23 日 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 稀土：工信部拟出台稀土开采新规，稀土价格或开启新一轮上涨。 2 月 19 日，工业和信息化部原材料工业司起草了《稀土开采和稀土 冶炼分离总量调控管理办法（暂行）（公开征求意见稿）》。《办法》将 进口稀土矿纳入管理。从进口结构看，2024 年国内共进口稀土氧化 物 13.29 万吨，其中盛和资源冶炼产能约 6 万吨/年，主要来自美国， 剩余进口矿由两大稀土集团和地方民企获得，本次《办法》预计将对 地方民企冶炼产能造成较大影响。目前随着缅甸战乱持续，供给维持 紧缺，人型机器人 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 2025 年 2 月 22 日 《扩散指数有高位回调风险 ——微盘 股指数周报 20250216》 - 2025.02.17 《基本面回撤，高波风格持续——中邮 因子周报 20250209》 - 2025.02.10 《各资金持续流入机器人，短期注意回 调风险，行业轮动开始超配成长——行 业轮动周报 20250209》 - 2025.02.10 《全面牛市正在到来，微盘有望修复前 高 ——微盘股指数周报 20250209》 - 2025.02.10 《基本面表现强势，风格切换加速—— 中邮因子周报 20250126》 - 2025.01.27 《节前融资资金大幅净流出，ETF 资金 聚焦机器人以及红利——行业轮动周 报 20250126》 - 2025.01.26 《信号全部翻多，微盘股高胜率月份即 将到来 — — 微 盘 股 指 数 周 报 20250126》 - 2025.01.26 《基金 Q4 加仓非银商贸银行，减仓有 色医药电子——公募基金 2024Q4 季报 点评》 - 2025.01.24 《"春节效应"将至，市场即将企稳回升 ——微盘股指数周报 20250119》 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 研究所 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理：金晓杰 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100010 E研ma究il所:jinxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 金工周报 标题 强动量高波风格引领市场——中邮因子周报 20250223 标摘题要 l 风格因子跟踪 本周 beta、流动性、动量因子的多空表现强势，估值、杠杆、市 值因子的空头表现较强。 l 全市场股池因子跟踪 基本面因子本周表现与其长期多空收益相反，大部分因子的多空 收益表现为负值。 技术类因子本周表现与其长期趋势相反，动量因子和波动因子均 表现出强势的多空收益，全市场范围内高波动和高动量的股票表现强 势。 GRU 因子的多空能力较弱，仅 barra1d 模型取得正向的多空收 益。 l 沪深 300 股池因子跟踪 沪深 300 成分股内多数基本面因子本周多空收益与其长期收益 方向相反，静态财务因子的多头表现较强，增长类和超预期增长类因 子多空表现较弱。技术面因子看，仅 20 日动量的多空收益表现为负 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 2025 年 2 月 22 日 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 ⚫ 万得微盘股指数阶段表现 近一周万得微盘股指数上涨 2.7%，在 38 个宽基指数当中排名第 15。近一月万得微盘股指数上涨 9.31%，在 38 个宽基指数当中排名第 9。近一季万得微盘股指数上涨 9.02%，在 38 个宽基指数当中排名第 8。近一年万得微盘股指数上涨 78.51%，在 38 个宽基指数当中排名第 1。 《扩散指数有高位回调风险 ——微盘 股指数周报 20250216》 - 2025.02.17 《投资机会将仍在"AI+"细分行业间 流动，GRU 行业轮动连续调入成长—— 行业轮动周报 20250216》 - 2025.02.17 《小市值仍然强势，高波风格持续— —中邮因子周报 20250216》 - 2025.02.17 《微盘股基金 Q4 规模平稳，基金加仓 仍有空间——微盘股 2024Q4 基金季报 点评》 - 2025.02.13 《基本面回撤，高波风格持续——中 邮因子周报 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.028 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 290 million yuan, a significant increase of 188.52% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has successfully upgraded its technology and product lines, leading to rapid growth in industrial-grade EEPROM and voice coil motor driver chips. This has established a solid foundation for future development [6] - High-value-added products are seeing a rapid increase in shipment volume, which enhances the sales structure and improves profitability. The company has built strong brand recognition and quality customer resources in high-value markets such as automotive electronics and industrial control [6] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.03 billion yuan, 1.42 billion yuan, and 1.86 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 290 million yuan, 409 million yuan, and 550 million yuan for the same years [7][9] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 41, 29, and 22 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7]