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电网投资进一步加大,看好电网智能化的发展
China Post Securities· 2026-01-06 05:48
证券研究报告:电力设备|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 10088.23 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 10950.05 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6107.84 | 行业相对指数表现(相对值) 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2025-12 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 49% 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:苏千叶 SAC 登记编号:S1340525110004 Email:suqianye@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 分析师:盛炜 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120008 Email:shengwei@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《国家发改委修定输配电成本监审和 定价办法,我们预计明年整体进入过渡 期——适应"拍卖"机制》- 2025.12.01 电网投资进一步加 ...
甘肃省构建发电侧容量电价,同时对煤电机组进行现货市场补偿
China Post Securities· 2026-01-06 05:44
Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the establishment of a capacity compensation mechanism for power generation in Gansu Province, which compensates for reliable capacity based on contributions, impacting all industrial and commercial users [5][6] - The compensation standard is set at 330 yuan per kilowatt annually, with various factors determining the reliable capacity and compensation coefficients [6] - The report suggests that the capacity compensation will gradually transition to a market-oriented approach, with an emphasis on the pricing of renewable energy sources like solar thermal and hydropower [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 10088.23, with a 52-week high of 10950.05 and a low of 6107.84 [2] Investment Highlights - The report discusses the need for a re-evaluation of pricing for solar thermal energy within the electricity market, indicating that current compensation mechanisms are necessary to avoid distorting pricing due to the operational costs of coal-fired power plants [6] - The compensation mechanism aims to ensure that the market operates on marginal cost pricing, allowing for optimal technology to prevail [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Xizi Clean Energy, as the capacity compensation mechanism is expected to enhance the reliability and pricing of various energy sources [7]
光热有望在电力市场化中重新被定价
China Post Securities· 2026-01-06 04:53
Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the power equipment industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued opinions to promote the large-scale development of solar thermal power, aiming for a total installed capacity of approximately 15 million kilowatts by 2030, with electricity costs comparable to coal power, establishing a new industry with international competitive advantages in the renewable energy sector [4][5] - The report emphasizes the need for solar thermal power to be re-priced in the electricity market, noting that the construction cost per kilowatt has decreased from approximately 30,000 yuan a decade ago to around 15,000 yuan, and the cost per kilowatt-hour has dropped to about 0.6 yuan [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the power equipment sector is 10,088.23, with a 52-week high of 10,950.05 and a low of 6,107.84 [1] Investment Highlights - The report suggests focusing on Xizi Clean Energy, indicating potential growth opportunities in the solar thermal sector due to supportive policies and technological advancements [6]
汇宇制药(688553):仿制药海外获证提速,创新药管线顺利推进
China Post Securities· 2026-01-06 03:50
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][13] Core Insights - The company is accelerating its innovation pipeline with 14 Class I innovative drug projects, including dual-target small molecules and biopharmaceuticals, with expectations of 2-3 innovative drugs entering clinical research each year over the next three years [4] - The company has achieved significant overseas certifications for its generic drugs, which is expected to drive a turnaround in performance [8] - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2025, but is projected to see improvement in 2026 due to anticipated growth in overseas business and marginal improvements in domestic generic drug procurement [5] Financial Summary - As of Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 742 million yuan, a decrease of 12.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -50.81 million yuan, a decline of 122.35% [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.196 billion yuan, 1.446 billion yuan, and 1.742 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 91 million yuan, 201 million yuan, and 300 million yuan [9][10] - The company’s PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 83.03, 37.57, and 25.10, respectively [5][9]
华康洁净(301235):牵手九峰山实验室,有望深度绑定本地优质资源
China Post Securities· 2026-01-06 02:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][13]. Core Insights - The company is entering the electronic cleanroom market, which is expected to open a second growth curve. It has established an electronic division in 2024 and won multiple projects, indicating strong growth potential in the semiconductor industry [4]. - The company has formed a strategic partnership with Jiufengshan Laboratory, enhancing its customer acquisition capabilities and integrating into the local semiconductor ecosystem [8]. - The company reported impressive performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with a revenue increase of 32.59% and a net profit increase of 211.46%, driven by the completion of purification system projects [8]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 25.57 billion, 35.59 billion, and 46.77 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 1.38 billion, 2.12 billion, and 3.35 billion yuan for the same years [5][9]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 28.7, 18.8, and 11.9 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a decreasing trend in valuation multiples as earnings grow [5][9].
硕贝德(300322):主业协同提效,成长动能充沛
China Post Securities· 2026-01-05 13:50
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth and profit recovery, with a 50.25% year-on-year increase in revenue to 1.99 billion yuan and a staggering 1290.66% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders to 51 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. - The focus on core business areas has yielded significant results, with four main product lines—antennas, wiring harnesses and connectors, thermal modules, and smart sensor modules—showing positive synergy and growth [5]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.8 billion yuan, 3.6 billion yuan, and 4.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 80 million yuan, 110 million yuan, and 140 million yuan [6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 27.29 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 12.6 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 12 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 460 million shares, with 440 million shares in circulation [3]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 66.4%, indicating a relatively high level of leverage [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow at rates of 51.09% in 2025, 28.31% in 2026, and 30.10% in 2027 [9]. - The company is expected to achieve a gross profit margin of approximately 23% in 2025, increasing to 24.9% by 2027 [14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to turn positive, reaching 0.18 yuan in 2025 and 0.31 yuan in 2027 [9][14].
奕瑞科技(688301):增资扩股发展新业务,业绩有望延续高增长
China Post Securities· 2026-01-05 13:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain high growth due to the expansion of its OLED microdisplay backplane business through a capital increase and introduction of strategic investors [3] - The company reported strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue of 1.549 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.22%, and a net profit of 471 million yuan, up 20.61% [4] - The company is increasing its R&D investment to accelerate product innovation, with key products expected to launch in 2026, which will enhance its competitive edge [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.32 billion yuan, 2.90 billion yuan, and 3.73 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 629 million yuan, 838 million yuan, and 1.028 billion yuan [6] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 101.11 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 21.4 billion yuan [2] - The company has a total share capital of 211 million shares, with 200 million shares in circulation [2] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 48.8% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.02 [2]
山外山(688410):血透设备市占率稳居前列,耗材放量可期
China Post Securities· 2026-01-05 13:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [13]. Core Insights - The company, 山外山, holds a leading market share in blood dialysis equipment, with a November 2025 market share of 18.75%, surpassing competitors like 费森尤斯 and 贝朗 [3]. - The company has demonstrated robust revenue growth, with a 39.79% increase in revenue to 584 million yuan and a 68.68% increase in net profit to 104 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. - The company is expected to see a significant increase in the contribution of consumables to its overall performance, driven by its leading position in the blood purification equipment market and a focus on enhancing consumable sales [5]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 760 million yuan, 950 million yuan, and 1.2 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 151 million yuan, 191 million yuan, and 238 million yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 14.97 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 4.8 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 320 million shares, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 67.52 [2]. - The company’s largest shareholder is 高光勇 [2].
医药生物行业报告(2025.12.29-2025.12.31):零售药店行业加速出清,行业集中度提升龙头受益
China Post Securities· 2026-01-05 12:24
Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The retail pharmacy industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation, with a significant reduction in the number of stores, leading to increased concentration benefiting leading players [4][15] - The number of retail pharmacies in China has decreased by nearly 20,000 since the fourth quarter of 2024, with a net reduction of 8,800 stores in the third quarter of 2025 alone [15][21] - Leading pharmacies are expected to see profit margins improve in 2026 due to operational optimizations and cost control measures [5][21] - The innovation drug sector is currently in a correction phase, but the maturation of clinical data is expected to drive future market performance [7][25] - The medical device sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies reporting improved performance in the third quarter of 2025 [29][30] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is 8084.61, with a 52-week high of 9323.49 and a low of 6764.34 [1] Recent Market Performance - The A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector fell by 2.06% in the last week of December 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.47 percentage points [6][22] - The retail pharmacy sector experienced a decline of 4.11% during the same period [22] Retail Pharmacy Insights - The retail pharmacy industry is seeing a rapid exit of smaller players, with a focus on consolidating market share among leading pharmacies [15][37] - The implementation of drug traceability codes is expected to further increase industry concentration by raising operational costs for smaller pharmacies [20] Innovation Drug Sector - The innovation drug sector is experiencing a correction, but the maturation of clinical data is anticipated to be a key driver for future performance [7][25] - Companies with stable business development (BD) expectations are recommended for investment, including Innovent Biologics and 3SBio [26] Medical Device Sector - The medical device industry is expected to benefit from improved procurement processes and a reduction in the pressure from centralized procurement [29][30] - Leading companies are showing signs of recovery, with Q3 performance improving compared to earlier in the year [29] Traditional Chinese Medicine - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is under pressure but is expected to benefit from policies favoring essential medicines and inventory clearance [34][36]
证券行业报告(2025.12.29-2025.12.31):2026头部券商FICC非方向性获利能力或将凸显重要性
China Post Securities· 2026-01-05 11:14
Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that the stock-bond spread is expected to fluctuate within a neutral range, lacking strong momentum for unilateral expansion or convergence, with the stock relative value not being prominent [5][9] - The bond trading volume has surged from an average of 2 trillion yuan at the beginning of 2024 to 3 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a shift from a "configuration market" to a "trading market" [5] - The report anticipates that the top brokers' FICC non-directional profit trading capabilities will become increasingly important in 2026 [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals Tracking - The Shibor 3M rate is expected to remain at historical low levels in 2026, with a central estimate between 1.4% and 1.8%, primarily fluctuating around 1.6% [6][17] - The A-share market's stock fund trading volume is projected to enter a new phase of moderate growth, with daily average trading expected to range from 2.2 trillion to 3.2 trillion yuan, achieving a central estimate of 2.6 trillion to 2.8 trillion yuan [7][21] - The margin financing market is expected to transition from a "high-speed expansion period" in 2025 to a "high-quality growth period" in 2026, with balances projected to range from 2.6 trillion to 3.2 trillion yuan [23][24] - The bond market is expected to maintain high trading volumes, with daily average trading estimated between 2.5 trillion and 3.0 trillion yuan [8][28] - The stock-bond spread is anticipated to continue its "high volatility" pattern, with an expected range of 4.0% to 6.0% for 2026 [9][31] 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Securities II industry index decreased by 0.29%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.20 percentage points [33] - The securities II index has only increased by 2.59% compared to a 17.66% increase in the CSI 300 index over the past year [33] - In the Hong Kong market, the securities and brokerage sector ranked first, with a gain of 0.714%, outperforming the overall financial sector [34]