Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The basic chemical industry is currently under pressure due to global trade sentiment, with a focus on cyclical bottoming and potential recovery in leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Yangnong Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Hualu Hengsheng [4][5] - The basic chemical sector has experienced a decline of 5.83% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.61 percentage points [5][18] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the basic chemical sector is 3951.07, with a 52-week high of 4195.72 and a low of 3081.91 [1] Market Performance - The basic chemical sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index year-to-date, with a decline of 18.96 percentage points compared to the index's increase of 33.31% [18] - This week, the sector's performance was marked by significant fluctuations, with notable gainers including Sanfu Co. (up 33.17%) and Chengxing Co. (up 25.12%) [6][18] Price Movements - Key products in the lithium battery materials sector have seen price increases, with liquid chlorine rising by 184.91% and lithium cobalt oxide by 19.74% [8][23] - Conversely, R22 prices have dropped significantly by 51.52% [9][25] Key Companies and Investment Ratings - Wanhua Chemical: Buy rating, closing price at 61.5, market cap of 192.56 billion, 2025E EPS of 135.5 [11] - Yangnong Chemical: Buy rating, closing price at 68.8, market cap of 27.89 billion, 2025E EPS of 13.9 [11] - Hengli Petrochemical: Buy rating, closing price at 24.6, market cap of 52.29 billion, 2025E EPS of 37.3 [11]

- The diffusion index model tracks industry rotation based on momentum principles, focusing on upward trends in industry performance. It has been monitored for four years, with notable excess returns in 2021 (25% before September) and stable returns in 2022 (6.12%). However, it faced significant drawdowns in 2023 (-4.58%) and 2024 (-5.82%) due to market reversals. For October 2025, recommended industries include non-ferrous metals, banking, communication, steel, electronics, and automobiles[26][30] - The GRU factor model utilizes GRU deep learning networks to analyze minute-level volume and price data, aiming to capture industry rotation. It has shown strong adaptability in short cycles but struggles in long cycles and extreme market conditions. For October 2025, industries such as building materials, electric power and utilities, textiles and apparel, transportation, steel, and petrochemicals are recommended[33][36] - Diffusion index model weekly tracking shows top industries as non-ferrous metals (0.979), communication (0.931), banking (0.929), steel (0.849), electronics (0.833), and electric power equipment & new energy (0.816). Industries with the largest weekly changes include consumer services (0.271), coal (0.251), and retail trade (0.127)[27][28][29] - GRU factor weekly tracking highlights top industries as textiles and apparel (4.22), comprehensive (2.68), transportation (2.16), steel (2), electric power and utilities (1.84), and petrochemicals (1.08). Industries with the largest weekly improvements include food and beverage, electric power and utilities, and real estate[34][37] - Diffusion index model performance: weekly average return -3.42%, excess return over equal-weighted industry index -0.85%, October excess return -1.21%, year-to-date excess return 3.42%[30] - GRU factor model performance: weekly average return -1.74%, excess return over equal-weighted industry index 0.86%, October excess return 2.51%, year-to-date excess return -5.40%[36]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that the production side is stable with a slight increase, the coke oven and PX operating rates decline, the tire operating rate rebounds significantly, and the asphalt operating rate is at a high level [1][31]. - The transaction volume of commercial housing and land supply area are generally at a low level, and seasonal improvement may occur in the near future [1][31]. - After the holiday, the number of executed flights decreases, while the subway passenger volume and congestion index in cities increase [1][31]. - The price trend is differentiated. Crude oil and rebar prices decline, while coking coal, copper, and aluminum prices rise. The overall price of agricultural products increases, but the prices of pork and eggs drop significantly [1][31]. - In the short term, focus on the incremental policies of the Fourth Plenary Session and the 14th Five - Year Plan, Sino - US trade policies, and the recovery of the real estate market [1][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Production: Rebar Production Continues to Decline, Tire Operating Rate Rebounds Significantly - Steel: The coke oven capacity utilization rate decreases by 0.96 pct, the blast furnace operating rate remains flat, and the rebar production decreases by 2.24 tons. The inventory of rebar also decreases by 7.7 tons [10]. - Petroleum asphalt: The operating rate increases by 1.3 pct and is at a relatively high level in recent years [10]. - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate decreases by 1.9 pct, while the PTA operating rate increases by 1.57 pct [10]. - Automobile tires: The operating rate rebounds significantly after the holiday. The all - steel tire operating rate increases by 20.56 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increases by 26.21 pct [11]. 2. Demand: Commercial Housing Transactions Increase Slightly at a Low Level, SCFI Rebounds Significantly - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing rebounds slightly at a low level, the inventory - to - sales ratio increases, the land supply area decreases, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreases [14]. - Movie box office: In the week of October 5, it increases by 1.087 billion yuan compared with the previous week [14]. - Automobile: In the week of October 12, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increase by 41,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increase by 46,000 vehicles [16]. - Shipping index: In the week of October 17, SCFI rebounds by 12.92%, CCFI decreases by 4.11%, and BDI increases by 6.87% [19]. 3. Prices: Crude Oil and Rebar Prices Decline, Coking Coal, Copper, and Aluminum Prices Rise - Energy: The Brent crude oil price drops by 2.3% to $61.29 per barrel [21]. - Coking coal: The futures price rises by 1.67% to 1,184.5 yuan per ton [21]. - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by +2.25%, +1.18%, and - 1.41% respectively compared with the previous week, and the domestic rebar futures price decreases by 1.96% [22]. - Agricultural products: The overall price increases, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 1.13%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits change by - 3.94%, - 4.45%, +2.42%, and +0.28% respectively compared with the previous week [24]. 4. Logistics: After the Holiday, Subway Passenger Volume and Urban Congestion Index Rebound Significantly, and the Number of Executed Flights Decreases Significantly - Subway passenger volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, it rebounds significantly after the holiday. The seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increases by about 3.28 million person - times, and that of Shanghai increases by about 3.04 million person - times [27]. - Executed flights: After the holiday, the number of domestic and international executed flights decreases significantly. The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flights decreases by 10.22%, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreases by 5.8%, and that of international flights decreases by 4.44% [29]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index of first - tier cities rebounds significantly after the holiday, with the seven - day moving average increasing by 34.16% [29]. 5. Summary: Asphalt Operating Rate is at a High Level, Crude Oil and Pork Prices are Low The high - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production, demand, logistics, and prices. The production side is stable with a slight increase; the demand side is at a low level with potential seasonal improvement; the logistics situation shows a post - holiday adjustment; and the price trend is differentiated. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the real estate market recovery [31].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen significant price increases, with COMEX gold rising by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% due to recession fears and expectations of renewed tariffs [4] - Copper prices have rebounded by 2.25% on the LME, driven by tariff expectations, despite some pressure from lower downstream demand [5] - Cobalt prices have surged due to supply concerns following the announcement of export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with significant weekly increases in various cobalt compounds [6] - The report indicates that rare earth prices have decreased but are expected to stabilize due to tightened export controls and ongoing demand in sectors like energy-efficient appliances and electric vehicles [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index for the industry is at 7322.8, with a weekly high of 7807.9 and a low of 4280.14 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper increase by 2.25%, aluminum by 1.18%, while zinc, lead, and tin experienced declines [19] - Precious metals saw significant increases, with COMEX gold up by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% [19] Inventory Trends - Global visible copper inventories increased by 16,766 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 6,049 tons [33][35]

Group 1: Economic Financing Demand - In September, the financing demand of the real economy showed a year-on-year slowdown, with new RMB loans amounting to 16,080 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,662 billion yuan compared to the previous year[9] - Corporate bond financing reached 105 billion yuan, an increase of 2,031 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a shift towards bond financing[9] - The total financing under the social financing framework was 16,185 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1,631 billion yuan[9] Group 2: Household Financing and Policies - Household financing demand rebounded month-on-month but weakened year-on-year, with new household loans at 3,890 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,110 billion yuan year-on-year[10] - The rebound in housing sales supported household financing demand, with a reported sales amount of 2,527.8 billion yuan in September, a month-on-month increase of 22.1%[10] - The impact of interest subsidy policies on corporate financing has yet to be significantly reflected in the data, with corporate financing demand showing a seasonal recovery[12] Group 3: Household Deposit Behavior - In September, the behavior of households moving deposits weakened, with new RMB deposits amounting to 22,100 billion yuan, an increase of 7,600 billion yuan year-on-year[17] - The A-share market's cooling in September led to a return of some funds from equity investments back to deposits, indicating a decrease in household risk appetite[17] Group 4: M1 and M2 Growth Rates - M1 grew by 7.2% year-on-year in September, while M2 grew by 8.4%, with the M1-M2 growth rate gap narrowing for five consecutive months[18][19] - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 growth rates may lead to improvements in corporate profitability, with a projected PPI year-on-year growth rate of -3.6% by June 2025[19]

Export Trends - In September, China's export growth rate was 8.3%, influenced by a low base effect, but the two-year compound growth rate fell to 5.27%, down 1.21 percentage points from the previous value[9] - Exports to the US continued to decline, with a growth rate of -27.03%, although this was an improvement of 6.09 percentage points from the previous month[12] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN showed marginal support for overall export growth, with growth rates of 14.18% and 15.62% respectively, although both showed signs of slowing down[14] Import Trends - In September, China's import growth rate was 7.4%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points from the previous value, exceeding market expectations[22] - The main contributors to the import growth were the EU, Japan, and South Korea, with respective contributions of 0.98%, 1.25%, and 0.93%[24] Market Outlook - Short-term export growth is expected to face downward pressure due to ongoing trade tensions, particularly with the US, which may impact overall economic growth[3] - The restructuring of global trade led by the US may create challenges for China's exports, but there are signs of continued optimization in export structure, particularly with ASEAN and Belt and Road countries[26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company GeKowei (688728) [2][9] Core Insights - The company has successfully transformed into a Fab-Lite model, significantly enhancing its operational cash flow and product competitiveness. In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.636 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.33%, with Q2 revenue reaching a record high since its IPO, up approximately 39% from Q1. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 30 million yuan [5][6][15] - The company is focusing on high-pixel products, with the revenue share of mobile CIS (CMOS Image Sensors) increasing. In H1 2025, mobile CIS accounted for 60.88% of total revenue, with products of 13 million pixels and above generating over 1 billion yuan, representing about 46% of mobile CIS revenue [6][15] - The self-owned factory is shifting entirely to high-pixel products, with the production capacity for 32 million and 50 million pixel products fully utilized. This transition is expected to enhance the company's integrated competitive capabilities and profitability [7][15] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.81 billion yuan, 10 billion yuan, and 12 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 200 million yuan, 500 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan for the same years [9][11][19] - The EBITDA for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 is forecasted to be 1.805 billion yuan, 2.243 billion yuan, and 2.883 billion yuan, respectively [11][19] Relative Valuation - The company is recognized as a leading semiconductor and integrated circuit design enterprise in China, primarily engaged in the R&D, design, manufacturing, and sales of CMOS image sensors and display driver chips. The relative valuation analysis indicates a projected PB (Price to Book) ratio of 4.47x for 2025 [14][15]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the issuance of the "Three-Year Doubling Action Plan for Electric Vehicle Charging Facilities" by six departments, aiming to establish 28 million charging facilities by the end of 2027, providing over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity to meet the needs of more than 80 million electric vehicles [4][5] - The current public charging capacity is insufficient to meet demand during holidays and in popular areas, with a total of 17.348 million charging facilities as of August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 53.5% [5] - The report emphasizes the potential of Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology to enhance the national unified electricity market, with plans to expand the pilot application of V2G facilities to over 5,000 by the end of 2027 [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the electric equipment sector is 9930.59, with a 52-week high of 10428.72 and a low of 6107.84 [1] Investment Highlights - The report suggests that public charging stations will progress towards higher power levels, which will require further enhancements to the distribution network [6] - Recommended companies for investment include Shenghong Co., Ltd. and Youyou Green Energy for charging equipment, and Teruid and Wanma Co., Ltd. for operators [6] Market Performance - The relative performance of the electric equipment sector shows a significant upward trend, with a projected increase of 27% to 55% from October 2024 to October 2025 compared to the CSI 300 index [3]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential of the retail trade industry, supported by a favorable market environment and consumer spending trends [1][4] - The report highlights the importance of IP (Intellectual Property) in driving revenue and expanding market reach, particularly through cross-media strategies [5][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index level is 2332.96, with a 52-week high of 2501.51 and a low of 1731.43 [1] Investment Recommendations - Key companies in the IP industry include Pop Mart, Blucol, and Miniso, with investment ratings of "Buy" for Pop Mart and Blucol, while Miniso remains unrated [11] - Pop Mart's stock price is 273.00 HKD with a market cap of 366.6 billion HKD, and an estimated EPS of 4.99 for 2025 [11] - Blucol's stock price is 108.00 HKD with a market cap of 26.9 billion HKD, and an estimated EPS of 4.32 for 2025 [11] Company Analysis - Nintendo has transformed from a card company to a gaming giant, with a market value exceeding 100 billion USD and a player base of 128 million [16] - The company focuses on high-quality game IPs, emphasizing originality and fun, with successful franchises like Super Mario and Pokémon [18][23] Historical Development - Nintendo's history showcases its evolution from a card manufacturer to a leader in the gaming industry, with significant milestones in product innovation and market expansion [31][32] Cross-Media Strategy - Nintendo's IPs, such as Mario and Pokémon, have expanded beyond gaming into various media, enhancing their cultural significance and commercial value [65] - Mario's commercial value is estimated at 38 billion USD, while Pokémon's is the highest globally at 147 billion USD [53][65]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8][13]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing growth in its NOR Flash market share, currently holding around 20% globally and ranking second for two consecutive years, with expectations for continued business growth driven by diverse demand from automotive, storage, computing, and industrial sectors [3][4][13]. - The niche DRAM market is expected to see a price increase due to a supply shortage, with the company's gross margin for niche DRAM products rising since Q1, indicating a positive trend for the second half of the year [4][8]. - The MCU segment is showing accelerated revenue growth, with a nearly 20% year-on-year increase in H1 2025, driven by strong downstream demand and successful new product introductions [5][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 202.01 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 134.8 billion CNY and a debt-to-asset ratio of 13.3% [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 96 billion CNY, 119 billion CNY, and 145 billion CNY respectively, with net profits expected to be 16 billion CNY, 21 billion CNY, and 27 billion CNY [8][10][15]. Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in industrial and automotive sectors, with plans to enhance cooperation with major Tier 1 suppliers and automotive manufacturers [3][4]. - The introduction of new products in the MCU segment is expected to contribute over 10% to revenue this year, with further increases anticipated in the future [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s relative valuation shows a projected P/S ratio of 14.01 for 2025, indicating a competitive position within the market [13][14].