Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: July 21, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Core Viewpoints - High-frequency economic data shows that production is heating up, the real estate market is declining marginally, prices are diverging, and shipping indices are also showing a differentiated trend. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of new growth-stimulation policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and international geopolitical changes [2] Content Summary by Section Production - Steel: In the week of July 18, the coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.18 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.31 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 7.6 tons [3][9] - Petroleum Asphalt: In the week of July 16, the operating rate of domestic petroleum asphalt plants increased by 0.1 pct [9] - Chemical Industry: The operating rates of PX and PTA remained flat compared to the previous week [9] - Automobile Tires: In the week of July 17, the operating rate of all-steel tires increased by 0.54 pct, and that of semi-steel tires increased by 3.07 pct [9] Demand - Real Estate: In the week of July 13, the commercial housing transaction area decreased, the inventory-to-sales ratio increased, the land transaction area declined, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased [13] - Movie Box Office: In the week of July 13, the total national movie box office revenue decreased by 123 million yuan compared to the previous week [13] - Automobile: In the week of July 13, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 0.8 million vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 0.7 million vehicles [15] - Shipping Indices: In the week of July 18, SCFI decreased by 4.98%, CCFI decreased by 0.77%, and BDI rebounded significantly by 23.39% [18] Prices - Energy: On July 18, the Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.53% to $69.28 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price increased by 2.53% to 932.5 yuan per ton [20] - Metals: On July 18, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.36%, +1.38%, and +3.14% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.73% [21] - Agricultural Products: The overall price of agricultural products decreased. The wholesale price index of agricultural products 200 decreased by 0.54%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by +0.29%, +0%, -1.36%, and -2.55% respectively compared to the previous week [23] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: On July 17, the seven-day moving average of subway passenger volume in Beijing decreased by 66,400 person-times, and that in Shanghai increased by 438,600 person-times [26] - Flight Volume: On July 18, the seven-day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 252.29 flights, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 7.43 flights, and that of international flight volume increased by 14.71 flights [27] - Urban Traffic: On July 18, the seven-day moving average of the peak congestion index in first-tier cities decreased by 0.06 [27]

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-07-18 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:冯昱文 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100011 Email:fengyuwen@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《 Grok 4 发布，通义开源智能体 WebSailor——AI 动态汇总 20250714》 - 2025.07.16 《beta 风格显著，高波占优——中邮 因子周报 20250629》 - 2025.06.30 《反转风格显著，小市值回撤——中 邮因子周报 20250622》 - 2025.06.23 《关注基本面支撑，高波风格占优— —中邮因子周报 20250615》 - 2025.06.16 《结合基本面和量价特征的 GRU 模 型》 - 2025.06.05 《Claude 4 系列发布，谷歌上线编程 智能体 Jules——AI 动态汇总 20250526》 - 2025.05.27 《谷歌发布智能体白皮书，Manus 全面 开放注册——AI 动态汇总 20250519》 - ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is positioned to lead in the low-temperature dairy market, with a focus on enhancing profitability through strategic initiatives and product innovation [2][23] - The overall dairy industry in China is experiencing a downturn, but low-temperature dairy products are gaining traction due to their freshness and functional benefits, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [2][10] - The company aims for double-digit compound annual growth in revenue from 2023 to 2027, with a target to double its net profit margin [2][45] Industry Overview - The dairy industry in China is under pressure, with a projected decline in the milk and yogurt market from 2022 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of -4.18% [9] - Low-temperature dairy products are outperforming their ambient counterparts, with their market share increasing from 29.97% to 33.82% for yogurt and from 16.53% to 16.91% for fresh milk between 2021 and 2023 [2][18] - The competitive landscape for low-temperature dairy is relatively fragmented, with significant room for market concentration compared to the high concentration in ambient dairy products [2][21] Company Overview - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 10.665 billion in 2024, with a product matrix that includes both ambient and low-temperature dairy products [2][25] - The company has established a national presence through three rounds of acquisitions, differentiating itself from major competitors like Yili and Mengniu [2][29] - The company operates 52 subsidiaries and has a diverse brand portfolio under the "New Hope" umbrella, optimizing resource allocation across its brands [2][25] Growth Drivers - The company is expected to achieve revenue and profit growth in 2023-2024, driven primarily by the performance of low-temperature products [2][58] - The company maintains a strong focus on high-quality milk sources, with approximately 60% of its supply coming from self-owned and joint-venture sources [2][64] - The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel is a core strategic focus, with plans to increase its contribution from 15% to 30% by 2027 [2][78] Profitability Enhancement Path - The company's net profit margin is expected to improve primarily due to an increase in gross margin, supported by an optimized cost structure [2][83] - The company has consistently achieved a double-digit revenue contribution from new products, indicating a strong innovation pipeline [2][68] - The gross margin is projected to rise as the company continues to enhance its product mix and optimize operational efficiencies [2][84]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [9][14]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 232 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 54% from 151 billion yuan in the same period last year [3][4]. - The increase in copper and gold prices, along with higher production volumes, is expected to support significant growth in the company's performance [4][9]. - The planned spin-off of the subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is anticipated to enhance the company's valuation [5][9]. - The acquisition of the RG Gold Mine project for 1.2 billion USD is expected to further strengthen the company's global presence and asset scale [6][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 19.14 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 508.7 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 26.578 billion shares, with 20.588 billion shares in circulation [2]. - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio stands at 55.2%, and its price-to-earnings ratio is 15.82 [2]. Financial Projections - For the years 2025 to 2027, the company is expected to see net profits of 452 billion yuan, 505 billion yuan, and 568 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41%, 12%, and 12% [9][11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.70 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 11.24 [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (9992.HK) [5][11] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of no less than 200% and a profit growth of no less than 350% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year [5][6] - The significant revenue increase is attributed to the expansion of IP and product offerings, as well as a rise in overseas revenue [6][10] - The net profit margin is projected to improve to approximately 33% in the first half of 2025, up from 20% in the first half of 2024 [6][10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: HKD 252.60 - Total market capitalization: HKD 3,392.27 billion - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be HKD 4.99 [4][11] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of HKD 45.58 billion and a profit of HKD 9.64 billion [6] - The projected revenue for the first half of 2025 is at least HKD 137.64 billion, with a profit of at least HKD 44.89 billion [6] Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on international expansion, particularly in the US and European markets, with plans to open 100 stores overseas by 2025 [10] - The introduction of new product lines, including accessories and building blocks, is part of the strategy to enhance the comprehensive platform [9][10] Future Outlook - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 105%, 49%, and 38% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 114%, 58%, and 46% for the same years [11] - The company aims to increase its overseas revenue share to over 50% by 2025 [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][13]. Core Views - The signing of a significant procurement agreement for a complete equipment system, valued at 879 million yuan, marks a pivotal moment for the company, establishing it as a key supplier for national defense projects and reflecting the government's trust in its capabilities [3][4]. - The company has transitioned from following to leading in the complete equipment system sector, with broad domestic and international market potential, which is expected to enhance its influence in military trade [5]. - The company anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projected between 150 million to 190 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 735% to 957% due to the resumption of delayed projects and expansion into civilian product markets [6][7]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 5.068 billion yuan, 6.070 billion yuan, and 7.720 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 668 million yuan, 854 million yuan, and 1.245 billion yuan [9][12]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 65, 51, and 35 times, respectively, indicating a potential for significant earnings growth [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock, indicating an expected relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [11]. Core Insights - The company, Huaxin Cement, is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 1.096 billion and 1.132 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 55% [5]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant performance improvement, with a net profit of 880 million yuan, marking a 59% year-on-year growth [5]. - The company has established a strong overseas presence, with production capacity exceeding 25 million tons across 12 countries, contributing significantly to its profitability [6]. Company Overview - Latest closing price: 13.25 yuan - Total shares: 2.079 billion, circulating shares: 1.344 billion - Total market capitalization: 27.5 billion yuan, circulating market capitalization: 17.8 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 15.20/10.10 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 49.8% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 11.42 [4]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are 36.5 billion yuan and 38.2 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.7% and 4.7% [6]. - Expected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 2.6 billion yuan and 2.79 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 7.7% and 7.1% [6]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 11x for 2025 and 10x for 2026 [6].

证券研究报告：有色金属 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-07-16 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 16.10 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）16.46 | / 16.46 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）265 | / 265 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 16.93 / 12.80 | | 资产负债率(%) | 40.2% | | 市盈率 | 18.88 | | 第一大股东 | 云南锡业集团有限责任 | | 公司 | | 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 锡业股份(000960) 业绩稳定增长，积极回馈股东 l 投资要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报预告，预计 2025 年半年度实现归 母净利润 10.2-11.2 亿元，同比增加 27.52%到 40.03%；实现扣非归 母净利润 12.6-13.6 亿 ...

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入 |首次覆盖 个股表现 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 -38% -34% -30% -26% -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 弘景光电 电子 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 85.41 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）0.89 | / 0.20 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）76 | / 17 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 160.07 / 80.87 | | 资产负债率(%) | 44.8% | | 市盈率 | 24.61 | | 第一大股东 | 赵治平 | 研究所 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 分析师:翟一梦 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040003 Email:zhaiyimeng@cnpsec.com 弘景光电(301479) 3+N 布局丰富光学增长极 l 投资要点 深耕光学镜头及摄像模组，践 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-07-16 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《破内卷困局，离不开扩内需支撑》 - 2025.07.08 供给侧结构性调整可优化资源配置效率，加速推动产业结构调 整，夯实高质量发展基础，但借鉴 2016 年供给侧结构性改革经验， 短期供给侧结构性调整亦会对稳生产、稳就业和稳增长带来一定冲 击，往往需要扩内需政策配合，以保证经济平稳运行。与 2016 年相 比，当前我国经济面临较大不确定性，我国扩内需政策空间或弱于 2016 年，"反内卷"持续深化或考验地方政府战略定力。鉴于此，我 们跟踪观察重点行业"反内卷"推进情况，并展望短期相关行业资产 价格可能的走势。 通过重点跟踪光伏行业、钢铁行业、汽车行业，目前"反内卷" 政策预期持续升温，但政策举措尚局限于以行业自律为主，且缺乏扩 内需政策配合，未来"反内卷"政策持续深化仍有待进一步确认。 借鉴 2016 ...