证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 2024-12-27 2025/3/13 2025/5/29 2025/8/8 2025/10/21 优然牧业 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价(港元） | 4.94 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本(亿股) | 38.93 | | | 总市值/流通市值(亿港 | 192 | | | 元） | | | | 52 周高/低(港元） | 5.12 /1.47 | | | 资产负债率(%) | 71.77 | | | 市盈率 PE | 58.2 | | | 第一大股东 | PAGAC | Yogurt | | | Holding II Limited | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 优 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-12-31 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:王一 SAC 登记编号:S1340125070001 Email:wangyi8@cnpsec.com ⚫ 负债端：规模韧性仍在，但成本下行空间有限 保险负债端整体仍具韧性，保费收入持续增长，为行业资产规模 扩张提供了稳定资金来源。2024 年以来，保费收入保持正增长，带动 保险公司资产总额同步上行，负债规模扩张趋势延续。在存款脱媒背 景下，尽管保险预定利率持续下调，但对资金吸引力的边际影响相对 温和，保费增速有所放缓但未出现趋势性回落。负债成本方面，预定 利率下调主要作用于新增业务，存量业务占比仍高，使成本改善传导 偏慢。财险行业综合成本率小幅下行，分规模分化显著，头部机构凭 借规模与费用管控优势维持成本可控，而中小机构成本压力持续上 行。寿险方面，行业打平收益率整体仍处偏高区间，低预定利率新结 构下，头部及保障型寿险公司盈利韧性相对更强，而中小寿险公司仍 面临较高的投资收益门槛。总体来看，负债端对行业形成稳 ...

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 华润微(688396) 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 53.84 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）13.28 | / 13.28 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）715 | / 715 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 58.65 / 39.30 | | 资产负债率(%) | 16.5% | | 市盈率 | 93.39 | | 第一大股东 | 华润集团(微电子)有限 | | 公司 | | 研究所 分析师:万玮 SAC 登记编号:S1340525030001 Email:wanwei@cnpsec.com 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 增持 |维持 个股表现 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2025-12 -18% -11% -4% 3% 10% 17% 24% 31% 38% 45% 华润微 电子 l 投资建议： 我 们 预 计 公 司 2025/2026/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][16]. Core Insights - The company has achieved record sales revenue of $635.2 million in Q3 2025, aligning with guidance expectations, and a gross margin of 13.5%, which exceeds guidance [3]. - The production capacity utilization of the three 8-inch wafer fabs remains high, with the first 12-inch fab achieving a monthly capacity of 95,000 wafers, and the second fab ramping up to over 35,000 wafers [3]. - Price increases initiated in Q2 have positively impacted gross margins, with 80% of the improvement attributed to average selling price increases and 20% from a shift towards higher-margin products [3]. - The company anticipates Q4 2025 sales revenue to be approximately $650-660 million, with a gross margin of 12-14% [3]. - The "China for China" strategy is driving strong demand, with ongoing upgrades in production capacity and product mix, including the launch of 40nm products in 2026 [4]. - The acquisition of Huali Micro is progressing, which will enhance the company's 12-inch wafer foundry capacity and create synergies between the two companies' technology platforms [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 173 billion, 208 billion, and 238 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 5.8 billion, 11.4 billion, and 15.4 billion yuan [6][10]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 19.99% in 2025, 20.73% in 2026, and 14.23% in 2027 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.33 yuan in 2025, 0.65 yuan in 2026, and 0.89 yuan in 2027 [10][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21.986 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an increase of 11.38% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 20.51% to 2.353 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company's health consumer products (CHC) business is solidifying its leadership position, while the prescription drug segment is undergoing transformation to unlock growth potential [5]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 30.581 billion yuan, 33.876 billion yuan, and 37.264 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 3.376 billion yuan, 3.789 billion yuan, and 4.277 billion yuan [7][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 28.55 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 47.5 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 1.664 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 37.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.86 [2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin was 53.52%, while the net profit margin was 10.70%, reflecting a decrease of 4.29 percentage points [4]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 2.925 billion yuan, down 8.70% year-on-year [3]. Strategic Developments - The company is actively launching new products in response to consumer trends, including various health products aimed at respiratory diseases [5]. - The collaboration with Kunming Pharmaceutical Group and Tianshili is enhancing the company's capabilities in innovation, manufacturing, and marketing [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][16]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the global wide-bandgap semiconductor materials industry, having achieved early industrialization of semi-insulating silicon carbide substrates and further advancing to conductive silicon carbide substrates [3][13]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with the Jinan plant steadily increasing output through technological improvements, and the Shanghai Lingang plant achieving an annual production capacity of 300,000 conductive substrates ahead of schedule [3][4]. - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix for silicon carbide substrates, including 6/8/12-inch products, and is positioned to benefit from the industry's transition to a "12-inch era" [4][5]. - The company is actively expanding its applications in electric vehicles, renewable energy, and AI, having achieved significant partnerships with leading power semiconductor manufacturers and optical firms [5][6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 1.73 billion, 2.74 billion, and 3.80 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 33.19 million, 143.93 million, and 278.49 million yuan for the same years [10][11]. - The company is expected to experience significant growth in net profit, with a projected increase of 491.56% in 2025, followed by 333.71% in 2026, and 93.48% in 2027 [10][11].

《陡峭的极限和骑乘的边界——2026 年展望系列六》 - 2025.12.25 固收专题 证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:谢鹏 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120001 Email:xiepeng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 信用债供给新格局 ——2026 年展望系列七 ⚫ 城投、类城投和产业：信用债发行格局分化 城投债发行持续下降，类城投和产业债迅速增加。城投债方面， 发行额连续第三年下降，缩量趋势明显，且监管政策未见明显放松， 化债期间恐难逆转。与此同时，产业债和类城投债则逆势而上。产业 债发行和净融资额均创历史新高。类城投保持稳步上升态势，并且可 能考虑到地方融资诉求，近两年类城投债增速有所上升。 三类重点主体：（1）债券首发主体：扩容降额、结构转型与区域 分化。2025 年首发主体数量大幅增加，其中产业和类城投首发主体发 债额增加较多，不过整体平均发债额有所下降。此外，和上一轮化债 相比，主要退平台区域差别明显；（2）退平台主体：中西部退平台主 体增加， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][12]. Core Insights - The company is set to benefit from the ongoing wave of overseas expansion and plans to accelerate its global strategy through a proposed H-share listing in Hong Kong [4][5]. - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 455 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.43%, primarily driven by the rapid expansion of its overseas short drama platform, FlareFlow [5]. - The overseas short drama market is projected to reach a size of 3.2 billion USD in 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 200%, indicating a high-growth phase for the industry [6]. - The company has a strong position in the overseas short drama sector, with its platform ReelShort being a market leader in terms of downloads and revenue [6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 23.60 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 17.2 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 729 million shares, with 660 million shares in circulation [3]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 38.5%, indicating a relatively stable financial structure [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.4 billion, 1.5 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan respectively, with a consistent growth trajectory [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be -100 million yuan in 2025, improving to 82 million yuan in 2026 and 313 million yuan in 2027 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -0.14 yuan in 2025, turning positive at 0.11 yuan in 2026 and 0.43 yuan in 2027 [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The inclusion of the innovative traditional Chinese medicine product, Yangxue Qufeng Zhitong Granules, in the 2025 National Medical Insurance Directory is expected to enhance market promotion, hospital access, and sales scale, positively impacting the company's future operating performance and market share [4]. - The product has demonstrated good efficacy and safety in clinical trials, showing advantages over Western medicine in treating recurrent tension-type headaches [5]. - The company has additional innovative traditional Chinese medicine products included in the insurance directory, indicating a strong pipeline for future growth [6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.828 billion, 2.023 billion, and 2.247 billion yuan, with net profits of 301 million, 364 million, and 439 million yuan respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation with current PE ratios of 16, 13, and 11 times [7]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 11.11 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 4.9 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 439 million shares, with an asset-liability ratio of 46.9% and a current PE ratio of 18.83 [3].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [2] Core Views - The current brokerage sector is experiencing a comprehensive recovery driven by loose liquidity, with the 3-month Shibor stabilizing at a low of 1.60%, providing low-cost funding support for margin trading, bond trading, and brokerage services, leading to a simultaneous increase in stock trading volume, margin balance, and bond transaction volume [5] - The PE ratio of the brokerage sector has only slightly increased by 6.87% since the beginning of the year, significantly lower than the market's 23.18% increase, indicating a potential high-cost performance recovery opportunity due to the market's underestimation of brokerage earnings elasticity [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Fundamentals Tracking - The 3-month Shibor rate remained stable at 1.60%, reflecting effective liquidity management by the central bank, with a decrease of 10 basis points from 1.70% on December 24, 2024, which helps lower financing costs for brokerages [6][16] - Stock trading volume showed a significant rebound, reaching 26,212 billion yuan on December 26, with an average daily trading volume of 24,042 billion yuan, an increase of 8.89% from the previous week [6][17] - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets stabilized around 2.54 trillion yuan, reaching a new high for 2023, with an average of 25,357 billion yuan, up 1.3% from the previous week, and a year-on-year increase of 32.31% [6][19][20] - The China Bond Composite Index continued to rise, closing at 249.3072 on December 26, up 0.14% from the previous week, with bond transaction volume reaching 29,509.60 billion yuan, reflecting a "volume-price rise" pattern driven by lower funding costs [6][21] - The PE ratio of the brokerage sector (Securities II) was 25.16 as of December 26, up 3.9% from 24.21 at the end of November, indicating a valuation recovery, while the market's overall risk appetite is improving [6][24] Market Review - The A-share Securities II industry index increased by 1.58%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 1.95%, indicating that the Securities II index underperformed the CSI 300 by 0.37 percentage points [27] - The brokerage sector's year-on-year increase was only 1.14%, significantly lower than the CSI 300's 16.80% increase [27][29] - In terms of industry ranking, the A-share Securities II ranked 19th among 31 first-level industries, underperforming the non-bank financial sector [29]