证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-09-01 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 19.77 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）8.61 | / 8.51 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）170 | / 168 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 21.35 / 8.99 | | | 资产负债率(%) | 64.6% | | | 市盈率 | 31.89 | | | 第一大股东 | Universal | Dairy | | Limited | | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 新乳业(002946) 收入环比加速，利润再超预期 l 投资要点 公司发布 2025 年中报,实现营业收入/归母净利润/扣非净利润 55.26/3.97/4.11 亿元，同比+3.01%/+33 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [9]. Core Insights - The company is one of China's three major hydropower equipment manufacturers and the largest private clean energy equipment manufacturer, as well as the largest publicly listed hazardous waste treatment company in China [4][20]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand in the pumped storage and nuclear power sectors, with a projected revenue growth driven by the government's three-year action plan against illegal waste disposal [4][6]. - The company has shown a significant increase in R&D investment, with a forecasted R&D expenditure of 940 million yuan in 2024, up from 50 million yuan in 2019, supporting its equipment manufacturing capabilities [4][47]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved from a small hydropower equipment manufacturer to a comprehensive group involved in large hydropower, nuclear power equipment, and hazardous waste disposal [20]. - It has successfully delivered contracts for control rod drive mechanisms for 17 "Hualong One" nuclear reactors domestically and internationally [4][21]. Industry Outlook - The pumped storage and nuclear power industries are experiencing a sustained increase in demand, with the approval of 48 new pumped storage power stations in 2022, totaling 68.9 million kilowatts [4][5]. - The global nuclear power sector is recovering, with investments projected to reach 150 billion USD, indicating a strong future for nuclear energy as a clean baseload power source [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 21.61 billion, 22.37 billion, and 23.20 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to grow at a CAGR of 25.7% over the same period [7][9]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.24, 0.30, and 0.38 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7]. Business Segments - The hazardous waste treatment and resource recovery business is the main revenue driver, accounting for 94.6% of total revenue in 2024 [35]. - The gross profit margins for hazardous waste treatment and clean energy equipment are expected to be 10.4% and 40.1%, respectively, in 2024 [37]. R&D and Technological Advancements - The company has been increasing its R&D capabilities, with a focus on enhancing the technology of pumped storage and nuclear power equipment [48]. - Continuous upgrades in technology have led to a growing order book, with significant contracts awarded in the pumped storage sector from 2022 to 2024 [52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q2, with profits exceeding expectations due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements. The H1 2025 revenue was 13.523 billion yuan, a 1.33% increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 798 million yuan, up 21.38% [3][4]. - The company is dynamically optimizing its store network and actively engaging in prescription outsourcing, with a total of 16,833 stores across 21 provinces as of June 30, 2025 [6]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 29.15 billion yuan, 32.11 billion yuan, and 35.43 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the gross margin was 34.86%, with a net profit margin of 5.90%. The company achieved significant cost control, with a sales expense ratio of 21.52% [4]. - The retail business generated 11.005 billion yuan in revenue, while the franchise and distribution business saw an 8.26% increase in revenue to 2.136 billion yuan [5]. - The company’s operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 2.91 billion yuan, reflecting a 64.67% increase [3]. Store Network and Expansion - The company has increased its store count by 280 in H1 2025, with a focus on optimizing its network by closing 285 underperforming stores [6]. - The company has established a significant presence in the market with 278 DTP specialty pharmacies and over 10,000 stores qualified for personal account medical insurance [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 1.147 billion yuan for 2025, 1.320 billion yuan for 2026, and 1.522 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 15, and 13 [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 300 million yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 16.51% year-on-year, with a net profit of 66 million yuan, down 33.99% [3]. - Despite the revenue decline, there is a noticeable improvement in the second quarter, with a year-on-year revenue drop of only 6.64%, compared to a 22.68% decline in the first quarter [3]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 80.81%, showing a slight increase of 0.43 percentage points, while the net profit margin decreased to 21.88%, down 5.79 percentage points [3]. Financial Performance - The company’s sales expenses ratio for H1 2025 was 44.41%, with management expenses at 15.31% and R&D expenses at 9.93% [4]. - Internet sales showed a positive trend, with revenue from online channels reaching 77 million yuan, an increase of 15.14% [5]. - The company has initiated a marketing reform that has begun to yield results, including strategic partnerships and the establishment of a nationwide distributor network [6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 656 million, 711 million, and 777 million yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 158 million, 178 million, and 206 million yuan [7][9]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the forecasted years are 27, 24, and 21, indicating a potential for growth as the company expands its market reach [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [10][16]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 18.27% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 1.916 billion yuan, and a 42.18% increase in net profit, amounting to 230 million yuan [4][5]. - The company is expanding its business model by deepening its traditional education services while also venturing into new areas such as vocational education and cultural services, which are expected to contribute to a second growth curve [5][10]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance operational efficiency and profitability, with a gross margin of 36.30% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [6][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 48.97 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 1.22 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 79.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.24 [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 3.4 billion yuan for 2025, 4.1 billion yuan for 2026, and 4.7 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding net profits of 253 million yuan, 304 million yuan, and 366 million yuan respectively [10][12]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.07 yuan for 2025, 2.49 yuan for 2026, and 3.01 yuan for 2027, with price-to-earnings ratios decreasing from 24 times in 2025 to 16 times in 2027 [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [6][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 49.875 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.475 billion yuan, up 161.77% year-on-year. However, the second quarter saw a decline in net profit by 42.53% year-on-year [4][5]. - The pig farming business continues to maintain good profitability, while the chicken business is facing significant losses due to low prices [5][6]. - The company sold 17.9319 million pigs in the first half of the year, a 24.75% increase year-on-year, with a per-head profit of 294 yuan [5]. - Chicken sales reached 598 million birds, a 9.16% increase year-on-year, but the average selling price dropped by 18.69%, leading to a loss of approximately 1.2 billion yuan in the chicken segment [5][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 104.924 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decrease to 102.407 billion yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 110.485 billion yuan in 2026 and 133.812 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 9.230 billion yuan in 2024, decreasing to 7.437 billion yuan in 2025, before increasing to 11.063 billion yuan in 2026 and 15.633 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.39 yuan in 2024, dropping to 1.12 yuan in 2025, and then rising to 1.66 yuan in 2026 and 2.35 yuan in 2027 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company has accelerated its AI transformation across all product categories, achieving significant revenue growth driven by strong AI technology integration. In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 449 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 91 million yuan, up 123.19% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is focusing on upgrading existing application scenarios and expanding into emerging markets. The integration of AI with hardware has created new market opportunities, and the company is committed to providing low-power, high-performance AI chip solutions for battery-powered edge devices. The successful launch of several AI audio chips has already shown significant commercial success [3][4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are 910 million yuan, 1.21 billion yuan, and 1.61 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Net profits are expected to be 190 million yuan, 260 million yuan, and 370 million yuan for the same years [4][8] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 39.4% for revenue from 2024 to 2025, and a net profit growth rate of 76% for the same period [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Add" for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 25.82% year-on-year increase in revenue to 1.337 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, and a 35.36% increase in net profit to 161 million yuan [5][6] - The company is actively promoting the launch of downstream application products, achieving rapid growth in various segments such as robotic vacuum cleaners, smart automotive electronics, and smart vision [6] - The company has upgraded its core technologies and completed the verification and mass production of several new products, including the A333 smart tablet chip and MR536 for robotic vacuum cleaners [7] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.91 billion yuan, 3.59 billion yuan, and 4.25 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 351.65 million yuan, 495.08 million yuan, and 644.01 million yuan for the same years [8][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.20 yuan in 2024 to 0.78 yuan in 2027 [10] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 239.65 in 2024 to 62.05 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the launch of the pilot green foreign - debt business in 16 provinces and cities, there may be a window period for the issuance of urban investment overseas bonds. In 2025, the issuance of urban investment dim - sum bonds decreased significantly, while the issuance of US - dollar bonds increased slightly. The net financing of overseas bonds varies by region, and some regions face large future maturity scales. For overseas bonds maturing before 2027, investors can consider moderately lowering the regional selection criteria, and for high - quality credit entities, they can consider moderately extending the bond duration. Additionally, investors should focus on bond liquidity and credit enhancement [3][10][37]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Issuance Situation - **Dim - sum Bonds**: In 2025, the issuance volume of dim - sum bonds decreased significantly. From January to August, only about 70 billion yuan was issued, much lower than the same period in 2023 and 2024. Henan had a relatively large increase in issuance this year, and the issuers were mainly medium - to high - rated entities. The issuance term was mainly 2 - 3 years, and the issuance volume in the 6% - 7% coupon rate range increased significantly, with the overall issuance cost rising [11][12][15]. - **US - dollar Bonds**: In 2025, Fujian had a relatively large increase in issuance. AA+ and AAA entities were the main issuers, indicating that investors had higher requirements for the qualifications of the issuer or guarantor. The issuance term was also mainly 2 - 3 years, and the issuance cost decreased, as the issuance volume in the 4% - 5% coupon rate range increased this year, while that in the 5% - 7% range decreased year - on - year [19][21][22]. 3.2 Maturity Situation - **Net Financing**: The net financing of urban investment overseas bonds varies by region. From January to July 2025, Shandong, Jiangsu and other provinces had relatively large net financing, while Zhejiang had a large net repayment. This difference may be the result of different regions balancing short - term debt - servicing pressure and medium - to long - term debt resolution tasks [25][28]. - **Future Maturity**: Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Jiangsu have relatively large future maturity scales of urban investment overseas bonds. For dim - sum bonds, after September 2025, the maturity debt is mainly concentrated in November and December, and from 2026 onwards, it is concentrated in 2026 - 2027. For US - dollar bonds, after September 2025, the maturity debt is evenly distributed in the remaining months, and from 2026 onwards, it is concentrated in 2026 - 2028 [29][32]. 3.3 Future Outlook - **Regional and Duration Strategy**: For overseas bonds maturing before 2027, investors can moderately lower the regional selection criteria; for high - quality credit entities, they can moderately extend the bond duration. This is due to the successful attempt of domestic bond replacement of overseas bonds in Kunming and the ongoing attempt in Chongqing, the "asset shortage" faced by overseas investors, and the expected easing of overseas liquidity with the Fed's expected interest - rate cuts [37]. - **Focus on Liquidity and Credit Enhancement**: Investors with high safety requirements should choose bonds with better liquidity. In terms of credit enhancement, a filing letter of credit has the highest guarantee effectiveness, followed by parent - company guarantee and then a keep - well agreement. Bonds guaranteed by AAA entities can strike a balance between safety and return. For investors seeking higher returns, they can further lower the credit rating and administrative level of the guaranteeing entity [40][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [10][16]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a phase of performance pressure, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit due to external environmental complexities and fluctuations in market demand for respiratory and cardiovascular drugs [3][10]. - Despite the current challenges, the company is expected to strengthen its internal governance and continue to see the results of its R&D efforts, indicating substantial growth potential in the coming years [10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 18.01 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 10.2 billion yuan and a total share capital of 566 million shares [2]. - The company reported a 27.29% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, amounting to 1.642 billion yuan, and a 40.12% decrease in net profit, totaling 142 million yuan [3]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 70.88%, reflecting a decrease of 3.67 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 8.67%, down by 1.86 percentage points [3]. - The company has shown a significant reduction in overall expense ratios, with a sales expense ratio of 34.81% (down 3.04 percentage points) and a research and development expense ratio of 15.02% (down 1.10 percentage points) [4]. Product Performance - The company has seen growth in certain product categories, with revenue from tablets, patches, and gels increasing by 12.26%, 4.78%, and 10.14% respectively, while injections and oral liquids experienced significant declines [5]. - The company is advancing its R&D pipeline, with several new drug registrations and clinical trials progressing, including innovative drugs for Alzheimer's disease and other conditions [6][7]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 3.898 billion yuan, 4.289 billion yuan, and 4.728 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 393 million yuan, 444 million yuan, and 505 million yuan [10][12].