证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-29 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《工业企业利润延续放缓，结构性亮点 凸显》 - 2025.12.29 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：假期成交清淡，市场趋于平静 ⚫ 核心观点： | 1 海外宏观教据跟踪 | | --- | | 1.1 上周重要事件与数据跟踪 | | 1.2 本周重要数据与事件 | | 2 美联储观点跟踪 6 | | 3 风险提示 7 | 过去一年中，美元整体显著走弱。美元指数自年初高点约 110 持 续回落，跌至 98 附近。其背后的驱动因素是多方面的：一方面，美 国财政与贸易政策的不确定性上升，市场对财政可持续性的担忧加 剧，削弱了美元资产的长期吸引力；另一方面，美联储全年降息幅度 高于其他主要经济体，导致美国与主要发达经济体之间的利差明显收 窄。 展望后市，短期内，美元仍具备一定的结构性支撑。若美联储如 市场当前定价所隐含的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant growth in stock performance relative to the benchmark index [5][8]. Core Insights - The panoramic and action camera business is experiencing significant growth, driven by the explosion of social media content and the increasing demand for immersive experiences. The company achieved a revenue of 1.198 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.65% [3]. - The company is implementing a "3+N" product strategy, focusing on expanding its market share in smart automotive, smart home, and panoramic/action camera sectors, while also exploring emerging fields such as AI hardware and industrial inspection [4]. - The company has secured stable partnerships with major automotive manufacturers and high-end smart home brands, indicating a strong order backlog and market capacity to absorb new production [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.594 billion yuan, 2.177 billion yuan, and 2.800 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 202 million yuan, 283 million yuan, and 368 million yuan [5][9]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 41.24% in 2024, 45.98% in 2025, and a gradual decline to 28.63% by 2027 [9][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 2.27 yuan, 3.18 yuan, and 4.14 yuan, with a decreasing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 46.20 in 2024 to 20.75 in 2027 [9][12].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous entry of leading companies into the world model space, with a focus on the film and gaming sectors [3] - The world model is identified as a significant direction in AGI research, with major companies actively investing in this area [4] - The capabilities of world models are expected to evolve, providing ongoing empowerment to the film and gaming industries [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index level is 802.63, with a 52-week high of 897.3 and a low of 590.32 [1] Investment Highlights - Major companies like Google, Runway, and ByteDance are developing world models that simulate real-world environments and generate content based on multimodal inputs [4] - Google’s latest model, Genie 3, can generate dynamic worlds based on text prompts, while Runway has released GWM-1, which includes variants for environment exploration, character dialogue, and robotics [4] - ByteDance has established a team focused on multimodal interaction and world models, recently launching the 3D generation model Seed3D 1.0 [4] Future Potential - In the film sector, world models aim to enhance video generation by creating physically accurate virtual environments, which could lead to advancements in long video production and complex storytelling [5] - In gaming, the three-dimensional world generation and interactivity of world models align well with game development processes, with companies like Tencent and xAI exploring these capabilities [5] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Kunlun Wanwei for world model development, Huace Film & TV, Light Media, and Hengdian Film for AI in film production, and Perfect World and Giant Network for large-scale 3D game development [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The film "Zootopia 2" has led the box office during the holiday season, with a cumulative box office exceeding 3.964 billion yuan as of December 28, 2025 [3] - The total box office for Chinese films in 2025 has surpassed 50 billion yuan, significantly exceeding the total box office of 7.5 billion yuan in 2024 [4] - The holiday box office performance is showing a clear divide, with content quality being the key factor determining box office success [5] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to maintain viewing enthusiasm, with a diverse range of films planned for release [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 802.63, with a 52-week high of 897.3 and a low of 590.32 [1] Box Office Performance - "Zootopia 2" has set a record for pre-sale box office among animated films in China, achieving 320 million yuan in pre-sales [4] - The film has become the highest-grossing imported film in mainland China, with an expected total box office of 4.13 billion yuan [4] Market Trends - The Chinese film market is transitioning from a phase of quantity expansion to a phase focused on quality competition [5] - The upcoming Spring Festival films are expected to continue the trend of high-quality content attracting box office revenue [5] Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include Light Media, China Film, Shanghai Film, Beijing Culture, and Huace Film & TV, as well as cinema leaders like Happy Blue Ocean, Wanda Film, and Hengdian Film [6]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The rise of "Reward Economy" is expected to benefit IP and trendy toys, driven by a shift in consumer behavior towards high-frequency discretionary spending [4][5] - The "Reward Economy" reflects a proactive optimization of consumption structure, allowing consumers to seek higher quality and psychological returns within limited budgets [6] - IP and trendy toys align well with the characteristics of the "Reward Economy," presenting opportunities for growth in various sectors [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 802.63, with a 52-week high of 897.3 and a low of 590.32 [2] Investment Highlights - Short-term, the "Reward Economy" is creating new demand, leading to a recovery in discretionary spending. In November, retail sales of consumer goods fell by 3.8% year-on-year, with essential goods showing resilience while discretionary items are recovering [5] - Long-term, the "Reward Economy" has the potential to expand demand and drive domestic consumption, contrasting with the "lipstick effect," which is more defensive and reactive [6] - Personalized demands such as IP and trendy toys are expected to thrive under the "Reward Economy," with opportunities for cross-industry integration [7] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include AoFei Entertainment, Zhongwen Online, and Huace Film & TV for their strong IP resources, as well as Yaoji Technology and Guangbo Co., Ltd. for their leadership in trendy toys [10]

Market Performance Review - In December, all major stock indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.93%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.77%, and the ChiNext Index by 6.27% as of December 26 [4][13] - The performance varied by style, with stable style down by 0.16%, financial style up by 2.21%, consumption style down by 0.75%, cyclical style up by 5.57%, and growth style up by 5.14% [4][13] - The large-cap index rose by 2.62%, mid-cap index by 5.90%, and small-cap index by 4.47% [4][13] - The market experienced a rebound in the fourth week of December, driven by the appreciation of the RMB and significant net inflows into the A500 ETF [4][13] Industry Insights - The leading sectors in December included defense and military (up 13.75%), communication (up 13.66%), and non-bank financials (up 8.30%), while the weakest sectors were media (down 3.96%) and real estate (down 3.30%) [18] - The focus on themes and events drove the market, with commercial aerospace and Hainan Free Trade Zone being the most prominent themes in December [18] Future Market Outlook - The A-share market in January is expected to face both challenges and opportunities, with attention needed on industry and individual stocks [5][33] - The potential for overseas disturbances, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, could impact market volatility [5][33] - Despite the lack of strong domestic stimulus policies and economic data, there are still strong themes and sectors that can perform well [5][33] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on thematic investments, particularly in commercial aerospace, non-ferrous metals, and consumer sectors [6][33] - The establishment of a commercial aerospace department and the release of a development action plan for commercial aerospace are seen as positive indicators for investment in this sector [6][33] - The report highlights the potential for a continued rally in the non-ferrous sector, particularly gold, driven by rigid demand and upcoming U.S. Treasury bond supply peaks [6][33]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In November, the total profit growth rate of industrial enterprises was -13.1%, a decrease of 7.6 percentage points from the previous value, marking two consecutive months of decline[10] - The cumulative profit growth rate for industrial enterprises from January to November was 0.1%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous value[10] - The average recovery period for accounts receivable increased to 70.4 days in November, up 3.7 days year-on-year, indicating a decline in asset turnover efficiency[15] Group 2: Cost and Revenue Dynamics - The operating revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises from January to November was 1.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[11] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.29%, down 0.11 percentage points year-on-year, with a profit growth rate of -2.04%[12] - The cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue was 85.5 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.19%[12] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The profit growth rate for the raw materials manufacturing sector was 16.6% from January to November, contributing 2.0 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[16] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 10.0% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the average industrial profit growth rate[19] - The aerospace and intelligent consumer equipment sectors showed notable profit increases, with profits in the semiconductor equipment sector rising by 97.2%[19] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Policy Focus - The economic fundamentals are showing signs of a phase of slowdown, with expectations of continued marginal profit decline in industrial enterprises[20] - The focus of macroeconomic policy is shifting towards stimulating investment and managing low inflation, as indicated by recent policy discussions[20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The domestic innovative drug research and development is experiencing a recovery, with a focus on investment opportunities in the non-clinical safety evaluation sector [4][16] - The non-clinical safety evaluation industry is characterized by high competitive barriers and is expected to see increased demand due to the growth of domestic innovative drug development [5][20] - The pricing of experimental monkeys, crucial for safety evaluations, is expected to rise due to limited supply and increasing demand from innovative drug research [20] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is 8254.26, with a 52-week high of 9323.49 and a low of 6764.34 [2] Recent Market Performance - In the week from December 22 to December 26, 2025, the A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector fell by 0.18%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.13 percentage points [6][22] - The raw material drug sector ranked first in performance among sub-sectors, increasing by 2.05%, while the hospital sector declined by 2.82% [6][22] Industry Perspectives 1. **Innovative Drugs and Industry Chain**: The innovative drug sector is in a continuous correction phase, driven by a retreat from previously optimistic expectations. However, clinical data from recent conferences supports the maturity of domestic innovative drugs [7][24] 2. **Investment Opportunities**: Companies with high certainty and less volatility in business development (BD) expectations are recommended, including Innovent Biologics and 3SBio [9][25] 3. **Medical Devices**: The medical device sector is expected to attract more investment as the pressure from centralized procurement diminishes, with leading companies showing improved performance [10][28] Recommendations - Focus on companies like Zhaoyan New Drug and Yino Science in the non-clinical safety evaluation sector, and consider investment in WuXi AppTec and Tigermed in the CRO and life science services sectors [20][26] - In the medical device sector, companies such as Mindray and Kangli Medical are highlighted for their potential recovery and growth [30][28]

证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 行业相对指数表现 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2025-12 建筑材料 沪深300 发布时间：2025-12-29 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5449.43 | | 52 周最高 | 5449.43 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关注内需低位品种，有望迎来估值与 业绩双重修复》 - 2025.12.22 建材行业报告 （2025.12.22-2025.12.26） 地产政策托底需求，关注反内卷落地情况 投资要点 12 月 24 日，北京市住房城乡建设委、市发展改革委、人民银行 北京市分行、北京住房公积金管理中心等 4 部门联合印发《关于进一 步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》，放宽非 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant growth in stock performance relative to the benchmark index [6][13]. Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, with a 46.04% year-on-year increase in revenue to 2.321 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, and a 119.89% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 233 million yuan [3][4]. - Key drivers of profit growth include increased order volume, technological innovation, management reforms, improved overseas operations, and successful expansion into new business areas [3][4]. - The company is deepening its focus on the communication and new energy vehicle sectors, with significant supply agreements with leading manufacturers and ongoing development of advanced solutions in these fields [4][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.0 billion yuan, 4.3 billion yuan, and 5.5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 300 million yuan, 429 million yuan, and 549 million yuan [6][9]. - The company is expected to maintain strong growth rates, with revenue growth rates of 55.29% in 2024, 26.03% in 2025, and 34.07% in 2026 [9][12]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 88.03 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 18.1 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 50.7% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 79.31 [2]. - The largest shareholder is Wu Shijun [2].