证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2025-10-14 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2992.07 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 3158.8 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2367.56 | 行业相对指数表现 -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 24% 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 农林牧渔 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《"反内卷"下，8 月能繁存栏下降》 - 2025.09.30 农林牧渔行业报告 （2025.9.30-2025.10.12） 节后猪价宽幅下跌 ⚫ 行情回顾：节后市场调整，农业跑赢大盘 节后仅 2 个交易日，市场整体有所调整。由于前期涨幅较小，且 相对抗跌，农林牧渔（申万）指数累计上涨 1.03%，在申万 31 个一级 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料|行业周报 发布时间：2025-10-13 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 17022.92 | | 52 | 周最高 | 19550.64 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最低 | 16379.5 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《IFBH（6603.HK）：椰子水空间广 阔，公司产品市场品牌端持续加码、 ...

- The report introduces the **Diffusion Index Model** for industry rotation, which has been tracked for four years. The model is based on momentum strategies to capture industry trends. It showed strong performance in 2021 with excess returns exceeding 25% before experiencing a significant drawdown due to cyclical stock adjustments. In 2022, the strategy delivered stable returns with an annual excess return of 6.12%. However, in 2023 and 2024, the model faced challenges, with annual excess returns of -4.58% and -5.82%, respectively. For October 2025, the model suggests allocating to industries such as non-ferrous metals, banking, communication, steel, electronics, and automobiles[26][30] - The **Diffusion Index Model** is constructed by ranking industries based on their diffusion index values, which reflect upward trends. The top six industries as of October 10, 2025, are non-ferrous metals (0.98), banking (0.951), communication (0.909), steel (0.877), electronics (0.823), and automobiles (0.813). The bottom six industries are food and beverage (0.137), consumer services (0.297), real estate (0.407), coal (0.445), transportation (0.457), and construction (0.489)[27][28][29] - The **Diffusion Index Model** achieved an average weekly return of 2.59%, exceeding the equal-weighted return of the CSI First-Level Industry Index by 0.70%. For October, the model's excess return is -0.37%, while the year-to-date excess return is 4.60%[30] - The report also discusses the **GRU Factor Model** for industry rotation, which utilizes minute-level price and volume data processed through a GRU deep learning network. The model has shown strong adaptability in short cycles but struggles in long cycles and extreme market conditions. Since February 2025, the model has focused on growth industries but has faced difficulties in capturing excess returns due to concentrated market themes[32][38] - The **GRU Factor Model** ranks industries based on GRU factor values. As of October 10, 2025, the top six industries are comprehensive (6.64), building materials (5.21), construction (3.55), textile and apparel (3.31), transportation (2.99), and steel (2.88). The bottom six industries are computing (-41.87), food and beverage (-35.34), electronics (-34.87), non-ferrous metals (-28.25), power equipment and new energy (-26.61), and communication (-22.71)[33][36] - The **GRU Factor Model** achieved an average weekly return of 2.88%, exceeding the equal-weighted return of the CSI First-Level Industry Index by 1.01%. For October, the model's excess return is 1.67%, while the year-to-date excess return is -6.55%[36]

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:金晓杰 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100010 Email:jinxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《融资资金持续净流入电子，主板趋 势上行前需耐住寂寞——行业轮动周 报 20250928》 - 2025.09.28 《指数震荡反内卷方向领涨，ETF 持续 净流入金融地产——行业轮动周报 20250921》 - 2025.09.22 《成长风格占优，小盘股活跃——中邮 因子周报 20250914》 - 2025.09.15 《金融地产获 ETF 持续净流入，连板情 绪偏修复等待合力方向——行业轮动 周报 20250914》 - 2025.09.15 《双创涨速明显提升，ETF 资金配置思 路 偏 补 涨 — — 行 业 轮 动 周 报 20250831》 - 2025.09.01 《指数上行重返十年高位，涨幅超 10% 芯片相关 ETF 净流出较多——行业轮动 周报 20250824》 – 2025.08.25 《非银爆 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-10-13 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:冯昱文 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100011 Email:fengyuwen@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《融资资金持续净流入电子，主板趋势 上行前需耐住寂寞——行业轮动周报 20250928》 - 2025.09.28 《融资资金净流入电力设备及新能源， 光通信概念趋势未破——行业轮动周报 20250907》 - 2025.09.08 《苹果推出 Xcode 26 Beta 7，英伟达 开源 Jet-Nemotron 高性能语言模型— — AI 动 态 汇 总 20250901 》 - 2025.09.03 《双创涨速明显提升，ETF 资金配置思 路偏补涨——行业轮动周报 20250831》 - 2025.09.01 《指数上行重返十年高位，涨幅超 10% 芯片相关 ETF 净流出较多——行业轮动 周报 20250824》 – 2025.08.25 《非银爆发虹吸红利防御资金，指数料 将保持上行 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-10-13 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《去杠杆的国际经验与资产表现—— 债务周期专题之二 20251009》 - 2025.10.09 固收周报 物价边际走低，假期消费稳中有升 ——高频数据跟踪 20251012 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产季节性回落，焦炉、高炉、PTA、 轮胎开工率均下降，PX 开工率上行。第二，物价整体走弱，原油、铜、 锌、农产品价格下行，焦煤、螺纹钢小幅上涨。第三，三十城商品房 成交面积回落，百城土地供应面积持续增长。第四，假期消费稳中有 升，居民出行消费热度不减，国内旅游出行人次、总花费、跨区域人 员流动同比均增长，电影票房同比降幅较大。短期重点关注十月全会 及十五五规划增量政策、中美贸易政策以及房地产恢复情况影响。 生产：假期影响，热度整体回落 10 月 10 日当周，焦炉产能利用率较节前下降 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the transition from traditional subscription models to performance-based payment structures in AI applications, particularly through the example of Sierra, which focuses on enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency [5][7] - The breakthrough of general large models in AI is highlighted, showcasing their ability to significantly improve performance in specialized sectors such as healthcare and finance through tailored adjustments [6] - The report suggests that AI will not replace enterprise software but will enhance its value by improving customer experience solutions [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index level is 5752.42, with a 52-week high of 5841.52 and a low of 3911.64 [1] AI Application Insights - Sierra's business model focuses on capturing market share and reducing costs by automating customer service processes, which can lead to significant improvements in customer retention and lifetime value [5] - The report discusses the importance of dynamic model selection in AI systems, which allows for better performance in specific tasks [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - US stocks: PLTR, TEM, SHOP, SPOT, SNOW [8] - Hong Kong stocks: Alibaba, Tencent Holdings, China Software International, and others [9] - A-share stocks: Dingjie Zhizhi, Shiyuan Co., and various others [9]

分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5349.43 | | 52 周最高 | 5355.99 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 行业相对指数表现 发布时间：2025-10-13 研究所 近期研究报告 《建材行业发布稳增长方案，继续严控 水泥玻璃产能》 - 2025.09.29 建材行业报告 （2025.09.29-2025.10.12） 中美贸易摩擦升温，关注低位内需板块 投资要点 近期中美贸易摩擦升温，可能促使市场风险偏好发生变化，一方 面建材板块中具备内需+高股息的防御性板块关注度有望提升，另一 方面，建材板块中的水泥、玻璃、消费建材等细分板块今年涨幅相对 落后，市场风格若"高切低"，建材板块多细分领域有望受益。 水泥： 7 月 1 日水泥协会发布响应反内卷政策文件，我们判断会 推动限制超产政策更好的执行。短期来看，9 月份进入旺季后，整体 需求呈现有所恢复但增长有限的特点，基建端， ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-10-13 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《去杠杆的国际经验与资产表现 —— 债 务 周 期 专 题 之 二 20251009 》 - 2025.10.09 固收周报 避险情绪，是追是止？ ——流动性周报 20251012 ⚫ 债市交易"宜止，不宜追" 观点回顾：四季度债市或在震荡中前行。30 减 10 国债利差已经 充分反映了风险偏好的修复，10 年减 1 年国债利差也大体反映了风 险偏好修复，流动性、资金面、短端利率估值合理，当前债市具备配 置价值。供给压力放缓即将出现，货币宽松契机可能出现，赎回压力 将持续存在。故债市可能在修复和调整中交替转换，因配置价值而修 复，因赎回压力而调整，若货币宽松契机出现，情绪的修复将加速， 其后的解套和卖出也将加速。 节后流动性进入季初宽松窗口。资金面边际宽松程度在节后有所 强化，当前资金价格回落至历史同期的最低水平，中枢再次下行至政 策利率水平。季初宽松与资金的日历效应有关，但资金价格的继续下 行，促进了宽松 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights the potential for price increases in copper due to supply disruptions and tariff impacts, suggesting that recent price pullbacks may present good buying opportunities [6] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals, particularly gold, amid renewed tariff concerns between China and the US, recommending an increased allocation to gold [5] - The report notes significant price increases in cobalt intermediate products, forecasting continued price growth in 2026-2027 due to supply-demand imbalances [7] - The report discusses the tightening supply of rare earths due to new export controls, which may lead to price increases in the domestic market [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 7554.83, with a 52-week high of 7783.14 and a low of 4280.14 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: LME copper rose by 0.76%, aluminum by 2.20%, zinc by 0.95%, and lead by 1.44%. Precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold up by 3.80% and silver by 1.44% [21] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes included an increase of 14,579 tons in copper, a decrease of 4,602 tons in aluminum, and an increase of 17,175 tons in lead [30]