Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic large model industry has transitioned from a technology catch-up phase to a new stage of systematic layout and ecological construction, with breakthroughs in algorithms, collaborative computing power, data accumulation, capital support, and policy backing [9] - The mHC architecture proposed by DeepSeek addresses three major pain points in large model training, significantly lowering the training threshold and costs while enhancing performance and efficiency [6][7] - The report indicates a robust growth in the application ecosystem, with notable user engagement in AI applications, reflecting strong market demand for quality AI application targets [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 5211.26, with a 52-week high of 5841.52 and a low of 3963.29 [2] Performance Analysis - The relative performance of the computer industry shows a positive trend, with a notable increase compared to the CSI 300 index [4] Recent Developments - Companies like Zhizhu and MiniMax are making significant strides towards IPOs, while Kimi has completed a $500 million Series C financing, indicating a strong capital influx into the industry [7] - The report notes that Kimi's user base has seen a month-over-month growth of over 170% in paid users from September to November 2025 [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various sectors, including Hong Kong internet companies and domestic computing power firms, highlighting specific companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Cambricon [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - Precious metals are recommended for strong holding due to expected market volatility and political events that may drive demand for safe-haven assets [4] - Copper prices are expected to rise, with a recommendation to buy on dips due to anticipated supply tightness in 2026 [5] - Aluminum is also recommended for buying on dips, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating demand [5] - Cobalt prices have shown a solid upward trend, with strong support expected due to supply constraints [6] - Lithium prices have surged, and it is advised to buy on dips as demand remains stable [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 8408.59, with a weekly high of 8408.59 and a low of 4295.55 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: Copper up 3.00%, Aluminum up 1.37%, Zinc up 1.28%, Lead up 0.30%, while Tin decreased by 4.75% [19] - Precious metals experienced declines: Gold down 3.85%, Silver down 1.25%, Palladium down 8.79%, and Platinum down 26.92% [19] - New energy metals saw significant increases: Nickel up 7.15%, Cobalt up 12.41%, and Lithium up 16.75% [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes included an increase of 38,474 tons in copper, a decrease of 4,067 tons in aluminum, and various changes in other metals [30][32]

证券研究报告：医药生物|点评报告 发布时间：2026-01-05 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 8084.61 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 9323.49 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6764.34 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《国内创新药研发景气回暖，关注非临 床安评行业投资机会》 - 2025.12.29 病理价格精细化政策落地，利好数字化医疗新基建 点评：此次《指南》的颁布标志着我国病理医疗服务进入标准化、 规范化、数字化协同发展的新阶段。作为疾病诊断的"金标准"，病理 诊断的精准度与效率直接影响临床决策质量和患者预后，此次政策的 出台更彰显了国家提升病理服务可及性、推动医疗资源优化配置的决 心，也为深耕病理领域的企业提供了明确的发展方向与实践路径。 政策特别强调了数字化技术在病理诊断中的应用价值，为数字化 切片、远程诊断、智能分析等新型服务模式的推广提供了政策支撑， 有望加速病 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core background for the bond market in 2026 remains the continuation of the "liquidation phase" of the debt cycle. The bond yield central - downward space is limited, and the risk of a significant upward movement is also controllable [3]. - Inflation is likely to enter a mild recovery phase in 2026. The drag of inflation on nominal growth is expected to disappear, but it is unlikely to drive interest rates up [4]. - Fiscal policy maintains a more proactive stance, with a high supply of government bonds in 2026. The supply shock of government bonds remains the main risk factor in the "low - interest - rate" phase [5]. - Monetary policy continues its moderately loose tone, shifting its focus from quantity to price. There is still room for a small - scale reduction in policy rates [6]. - In 2026, the bond market's capital structure will be dominated by allocation - type accounts. The yield curve is likely to remain steep, and the riding strategy may be the best choice [7]. - For the credit strategy, avoid the re - evaluation of risk premiums and apply the riding strategy to safe assets. Focus on the riding opportunities of medium - region urban investment bonds, infrastructure chains, and cyclical industrial bonds [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Debt Cycle: "Liquidation Phase" Still in Progress - **Leverage Ratio Clearing and Transfer in 2026**: The macro - leverage ratio is in a state of "structural differentiation and overall stability". The de - leveraging process of the household sector is deepening, the enterprise sector's leverage ratio fluctuates at a high level, and the government sector's leverage ratio is expected to rise [23][25][26]. - **Relief of Liability Pressure in Three Sectors**: The liability cost of the household sector has decreased, the enterprise sector's interest - payment pressure has eased but the overall debt pressure remains large, and the government sector's interest - payment pressure is under control [31][35][38]. - **Policy Combination and Asset Prices in the "Liquidation Phase"**: China's debt cycle is still in the "liquidation phase". Fiscal and monetary policies need to maintain a "double - loose" combination. Asset prices should reflect new kinetic energy and improved expectations while considering the background of the debt cycle [43][44][45]. 3.2 Price Trends: Inflation May Enter a Mild Recovery Phase - **Food Prices**: The pig cycle may reach an inflection point in mid - 2026. Food prices are expected to show a trend of "stable first, then rising, with converging fluctuations", and the negative contribution of food prices to CPI is expected to weaken [52]. - **Energy Prices**: In 2026, energy prices are likely to be in a pattern of "strong supply, weak demand, and fluctuating weakly", with limited direct support for inflation [55]. - **Core Inflation**: Policy may drive the central trend to be low in the first half and high in the second half of the year, with a mild recovery throughout the year. The core CPI central may be between 0.8% - 1.2% [59]. - **Industrial Product Prices**: With the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, the decline of PPI is expected to narrow. The PPI is expected to have an annual central around - 1.95%, and may turn positive periodically [63]. - **Inflation Outlook**: The drag of inflation on nominal growth is expected to be zero. CPI is expected to rise moderately, and PPI's decline is expected to narrow to - 2.0% [66]. 3.3 Fiscal Policy: More Proactive Stance with Maintained Debt - Issuing Scale - **Policy Tone**: Fiscal policy remains proactive in 2026. The general deficit rate is expected to remain around 4%, and the general deficit scale is about 14.55 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to 2025 [74]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The maturity pressure in 2026 is reduced, and the net issuance is expected to increase steadily. The annual issuance is expected to be 13.9 trillion yuan, and the net financing target is about 6.9 trillion yuan [77]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The issuance scale in 2026 is expected to be 11.12 trillion yuan, slightly increasing. The issuance rhythm may be more front - loaded, and attention should be paid to the progress of debt - resolution work [85]. 3.4 Monetary Policy: Continued Loose Tone with Focus Shifted to Price Regulation - **Policy Tone**: In 2026, the pattern of stable and loose liquidity is likely to continue. The reform of the monetary policy framework will deepen, and the marketization of the interest - rate corridor, policy - rate system, and liability - side price mechanism will further improve [97][98]. - **Price - based Tools**: There is still room for a 20BP reduction in policy rates in 2026, which may guide a new round of adjustments in the interest - rate system [101][102]. - **Quantity - based Tools**: The necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts has significantly decreased. The regular operations of repurchase and MLF are expected to continue, and the scale of central bank bond - buying operations may decline [105][110][111]. - **Credit and Social Financing**: The de - leveraging cycles of households and enterprises continue, and credit growth faces continuous pressure. Government bond financing and enterprise bond financing expand to offset the weakening of general loan demand [117][120][123]. - **Deposit Situation**: Personal savings continue to grow at a high rate, and non - bank deposits show high - volatility and high - growth characteristics. Unit deposits show differentiated fluctuations [129]. - **Narrow - sense Liquidity**: Liquidity will continue the "low - volatility and stable" characteristics of a downward price central and further converging volatility [140]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior: Allocation - type Accounts Dominate, Trading - type Accounts Under Pressure - **Banks**: In 2025, banks' bond investment thinking has changed systematically. In 2026, the main line of banks' bond investment with an allocation mindset will continue [155]. - **Insurance**: Insurance has a rigid demand for asset - liability duration matching. The allocation of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds has decreased, and the allocation of high - grade credit bonds and policy - based financial bonds has increased [175][180][186]. - **Wealth Management**: The scale of wealth management products is expected to grow in 2026. Asset allocation will focus on "net - value stability", with a preference for short - duration, high - liquidity assets [205][217]. - **Bond Funds**: The pattern of public - offering bond funds is about to change significantly. The trends of amortized - cost and ETF products will continue [218][230][231]. 3.6 Interest Rate Strategy: The Limit of Steepness and the Boundary of Riding - **Curve Shape**: In 2026, the yield curve is likely to remain steep, with the short - end likely to fall and the long - end difficult to decline [237][238]. - **Four Constraints**: Four factors limit the significant upward movement of long - end yields, including the decline of ROIC, the downward trend of long - term loan rates, the neutral stock - bond ratio, and the decline of banks' and insurance companies' liability costs [239][242][244]. - **Interest Rate Strategy**: The riding strategy may be the best choice in 2026, with a focus on the 5 - year Treasury bond [253][254][258]. 3.7 Credit Strategy: Supply Pattern Changes Significantly, Risk Premium Re - evaluated - **Credit Bond Supply**: The issuance of urban investment bonds continues to decline, while the issuance of industrial bonds and quasi - urban investment bonds increases rapidly. Science and technology innovation bonds have become the main incremental source of credit bond supply [263][276][281]. - **Capital Bond Supply**: The issuance of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds continues to decline, and there is still a small gap in TLAC for some banks [290][296]. - **Credit Strategy**: Avoid the re - evaluation of risk premiums in some credit bond sectors. The riding strategy is applicable to short - duration credit bonds, and attention should be paid to the riding opportunities of medium - region urban investment bonds and infrastructure - related industrial bonds [303][316][320].

证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5362.85 | | 52 周最高 | 5449.43 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《地产政策托底需求，关注反内卷落地 情况》 - 2025.12.29 建材行业报告 （2025.12.27-2026.01.04） 地产政策持续落地，关注建材龙头估值修复机遇 发布时间：2026-01-05 投资要点 上周财政部、国家税务总局于 2025 年 12 月 30 日联合发布《关 于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》，明确个人销售住房的增值税征 收细则，个人将购买不足 2 年的住房对外销售的，按照 3%的征收率全 额缴纳增值税，个人将购买 2 年以上（含 2 年）的住房对外销售的， 免征增值税。此次政策能够有效减轻房东经济压力，也使得房屋出售 的成本快速下降、促进市场流通。 地产政策持续释放，一方面托底需求，另一方面 ...

Group 1: Consumer Trends - During the New Year's holiday, inter-regional mobility increased by 19.62% year-on-year, with a total domestic travel expenditure of CNY 847.89 billion, up 6.35% from 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.12%[1][12] - The average ticket price for domestic flights reached CNY 684.6, a 9.8% increase compared to 2025, indicating a strong recovery in travel demand[16] - Dining consumption showed robust growth, with key provinces reporting increases of 18% in Zhejiang and 36.5% in Nanjing, while overall dining consumption in Guangxi rose by 5.8%[17] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.1%, reflecting a 0.9 percentage point increase, indicating improved economic conditions[2][18] - The construction sector's PMI rose to 52.8%, a 3.2 percentage point increase, benefiting from favorable weather and ongoing policy support[23] - The service sector's PMI was at 49.7%, showing a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold, indicating mixed performance across industries[24] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The "Two New" policies are expected to provide support for stable consumption, despite a potential mild contraction in funding scale for 2026[26] - International commodity prices are rising, which may pressure corporate profits and indirectly affect employment, potentially limiting demand recovery[26] - The government has initiated a CNY 295 billion investment plan for key projects, including the Guangzhou New Airport, to stabilize investment growth[26]

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 l 投资要点 持续推进 12 吋扩产。公司的主营业务涵盖产品与方案、制造 与服务两大板块，2025H1，制造与服务业务板块/产品与方案业务 板块分别实现收入 3.33/2.88 亿元，分别同比+18.69%/-5.5%。目 前，28nm 12 英寸集成电路生产线项目工程建设有序推进，提前实 现主厂房、CUB 建筑封顶；不断突破工艺技术，55nm、40nm、28nm 3 条工艺路线同步开发；65nm 12 英寸生产线持续推进产品与平台 开发，吸引多家头部客户并完成 60 余款新品导入；8 英寸生产线 持续提升运营效率，产线质量进一步改善，积极推进新品开发与拓 展工作；6 英寸生产线加快转型步伐，持续推进芯片线产品结构调 整，月产能稳定保持 6.5 万片。 强化硅光布局推广。公司 6 英寸 Si/SiC 基生产线工艺平台涵 盖 TVS、Planar MOS、IGBT、FRD、MEMS、VDMOS、SiC 等；8 英寸 Si 基生产线工艺平台涵盖Planar MOS、Trench MOS、FRD、BCD、CMOS、 SiN 硅光等；12 英寸 Si 基生产线工艺平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from rapid growth in capital expenditures by North American cloud service providers, with a projected increase in global capital expenditures from major cloud service providers reaching over $600 billion by 2026, reflecting a 40% year-on-year growth [4] - The company has successfully ramped up production of its GB300 product, with improvements in yield and testing efficiency expected to positively impact gross margins in Q4 [4] - The demand for high-speed switches, particularly the 800G switches, has surged, with a year-on-year growth of over 27 times in Q3, driven by the increasing computational and bandwidth needs of AI training and inference models [6] Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 882.9 billion, 1,368.1 billion, and 1,915.0 billion respectively, with net profits of 33.4 billion, 54.9 billion, and 86.8 billion [7] - The expected growth rates for revenue are 44.95% in 2025, 54.95% in 2026, and 39.97% in 2027 [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.68 in 2025 to 4.37 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [9]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][11] Core Insights - The report highlights the current closing index at 5159.54, with a 52-week high of 5841.52 and a low of 3963.29, indicating a volatile market environment [2] - The relative performance of the computer industry shows a significant decline of 14% compared to the CSI 300 index over the specified period [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Recent Developments - Meta has completed the acquisition of Manus, a general AI agent company, for several billion dollars, marking it as one of the largest acquisitions in Meta's history [5] - Manus has achieved an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of over 100 million USD within just 8 months of launching its AI agent product, showcasing rapid growth in the AI application sector [6] Market Trends - The report notes that both Zhizhu and MiniMax are preparing for IPOs, with expectations of a growth cycle driven by financing, model iteration, and enhanced agent capabilities in 2026 [7][8] - The domestic AI industry is anticipated to shift its focus from large model technology to the practical effectiveness of agents in achieving commercial success [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various sectors, including Hong Kong internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent, as well as companies involved in agent technology and domestic computing power [9]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-31 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《工业企业利润延续放缓，结构性亮 点显现》 - 2025.12.29 宏观研究 2026 年两新政策总量微调，结构聚焦 核心观点 2025 年 12 月 30 日，国家发展改革委、财政部联合发布了《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》（发改环 资〔2025〕1745 号），旨在推动经济高质量发展，促进消费升级和产 业转型。2026 年政策在资金投放、支持范围、补贴模式上进行系统性 调整，相较于 2025 年呈现"总量微调、结构聚焦、效率提升"特征。 第一，在支持范围方面，扩容与收缩并举，聚焦核心领域。（1） 设备更新支持范围有所扩容，新增老旧小区加装电梯、养老机构设备 更新、商业综合体设施升级等项目，精准对接民生短板与消费场景升 级。（2）消费品以旧换新更聚焦重点消费品，呈现" ...