Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI for August is at 49.4%, showing a marginal improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the expansion threshold[11] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is at 50.8%, indicating a recovery in production, while the new orders index is at 49.5%, reflecting weak demand[15] - The PPI is expected to show a marginal improvement in year-on-year growth, driven by the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to rectify disorderly competition in certain industries[27] Group 2: Employment and Small Enterprises - The Chinese Business Condition Index (BCI) for August is at 47.88, down 0.81 from July, indicating a decline in the operational conditions of small enterprises[17] - The continued decline in small enterprises may disrupt the employment market, affecting residents' income expectations and consumer recovery[28] - The disparity in recovery between large/mid-sized enterprises and small enterprises suggests a cautious outlook for overall economic recovery[28] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, reflecting a slight recovery in expansion momentum, particularly in the service sector[21] - The construction sector's PMI is at 49.1%, indicating a contraction due to adverse weather conditions and slowing real estate sales[23] - The service sector's PMI is at 50.5%, with high activity levels in capital market services and transportation, benefiting from a recovering equity market[24] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - Future economic recovery hinges on the sustainability of price recovery; if prices stabilize, it could lead to improved corporate revenues and profits[29] - Risks include geopolitical tensions and the potential ineffectiveness of policy measures, which could hinder economic recovery[5]

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 传统渠道表现弱势，静待下半年逐季改善 ⚫ 事件 公司 2025 年上半年实现营业收入/归母净利润/扣非净利润 11.24/1.12/0.87 亿元，同比-0.5%/-21.86%/-28.94%。公司单 Q2 实 现营业收入/归母净利润/扣非净利润 5.28/0.44/0.34 亿元，同比- 10.37%/-36.27%/-47.49%。 发布时间：2025-09-01 股票投资评级 买入|维持 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 13.32 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）4.51 / 3.00 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）60 / 40 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 15.65 / 10.19 | | 资产负债率(%) | 34.0% | | 市盈率 | 20.34 | | 第一大股东 | 周劲松 | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwe ...

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-09-01 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 6413.26 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 6413.26 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 -7% 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 49% 56% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340525070002 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《鲍威尔转鸽，金属价格上涨》 - 2025.08.25 有色金属行业报告 （2025.08.25-2025.08.29） ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-09-01 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -8% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% 48% 56% 64% 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 千味央厨 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 29.66 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）0.97 / 0.97 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）29 / 29 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 39.36 / 21.42 | | 资产负债率(%) | 21.5% | | 市盈率 | 34.09 | | 第一大股东 | 共青城城之集企业管理 | | 咨询有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 千味央厨(001215) 新零售蓬勃发展， ...

证券研究报告：机械设备 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-09-01 股票投资评级 买入|维持 | 公司基本情况 | | --- | | 最新收盘价（元） | 14.63 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）4.10 / 4.07 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）60 / 59 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 16.10 / 9.38 | | 资产负债率(%) | 46.6% | | 市盈率 | 26.60 | | 第一大股东 | 杭州兴润投资有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 咸亨国际(605056) 客户结构原因致毛利率下滑，净利率小幅改善：公司上半年毛利 率为 22.68，同比下滑 5.63pct，毛利率下滑主要因为较低毛利的战 略行业客户增长较快导致。上半年期间费用率为 17.61%，同比下滑 5.77pct ，其中销售 / 管 理 / 研 发 / 财 务 费 用 率 为 8.5%/7.4%/1.7%/-0.1%，同比变化-3.43/-2.60/-0.13/+0. ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: barra1d - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is part of the GRU factor family and is designed to capture short-term market dynamics through daily data inputs[4][6][8] - **Model Construction Process**: The barra1d model uses daily market data to calculate factor exposures and returns. It applies industry-neutralization and standardization processes to ensure comparability across stocks. The model is rebalanced monthly, selecting the top 10% of stocks with the highest factor scores for long positions and the bottom 10% for short positions, with equal weighting[17][28][29] - **Model Evaluation**: The barra1d model demonstrated strong performance in multiple stock pools, showing resilience in volatile market conditions[4][6][8] 2. Model Name: barra5d - **Model Construction Idea**: This model extends the barra1d framework to a five-day horizon, aiming to capture slightly longer-term market trends[4][6][8] - **Model Construction Process**: Similar to barra1d, the barra5d model uses five-day aggregated data for factor calculation. It follows the same industry-neutralization, standardization, and rebalancing processes as barra1d[17][28][29] - **Model Evaluation**: The barra5d model experienced significant drawdowns in recent periods, indicating sensitivity to market reversals[4][6][8] 3. Model Name: open1d - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on open price data to identify short-term trading opportunities[4][6][8] - **Model Construction Process**: The open1d model calculates factor exposures based on daily opening prices. It applies the same industry-neutralization and rebalancing methodology as other GRU models[17][28][29] - **Model Evaluation**: The open1d model showed moderate performance, with some drawdowns in recent periods[4][6][8] 4. Model Name: close1d - **Model Construction Idea**: This model emphasizes closing price data to capture end-of-day market sentiment[4][6][8] - **Model Construction Process**: The close1d model uses daily closing prices for factor calculation. It follows the same construction and rebalancing methodology as other GRU models[17][28][29] - **Model Evaluation**: The close1d model demonstrated stable performance, with positive returns in certain stock pools[4][6][8] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. barra1d Model - Weekly Excess Return: +0.57%[29][30] - Monthly Excess Return: +0.75%[29][30] - Year-to-Date Excess Return: +4.38%[29][30] 2. barra5d Model - Weekly Excess Return: -2.17%[29][30] - Monthly Excess Return: -3.76%[29][30] - Year-to-Date Excess Return: +4.13%[29][30] 3. open1d Model - Weekly Excess Return: -0.97%[29][30] - Monthly Excess Return: -2.85%[29][30] - Year-to-Date Excess Return: +4.20%[29][30] 4. close1d Model - Weekly Excess Return: -1.68%[29][30] - Monthly Excess Return: -4.50%[29][30] - Year-to-Date Excess Return: +1.90%[29][30] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Beta - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures historical market sensitivity of a stock[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the regression coefficient of a stock's returns against market returns over a specified period[15] 2. Factor Name: Size - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the size effect, where smaller firms tend to outperform larger ones[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Defined as the natural logarithm of total market capitalization[15] 3. Factor Name: Momentum - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies stocks with strong recent performance[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Combines historical excess return mean, volatility, and cumulative deviation into a weighted formula: $ Momentum = 0.74 * \text{Volatility} + 0.16 * \text{Cumulative Deviation} + 0.10 * \text{Residual Volatility} $[15] 4. Factor Name: Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the risk or variability in stock returns[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Weighted combination of historical residual volatility and other measures[15] 5. Factor Name: Valuation - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the value effect, where undervalued stocks tend to outperform[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Defined as the inverse of the price-to-book ratio[15] 6. Factor Name: Liquidity - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the ease of trading a stock[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Weighted combination of turnover rates over monthly, quarterly, and yearly horizons: $ Liquidity = 0.35 * \text{Monthly Turnover} + 0.35 * \text{Quarterly Turnover} + 0.30 * \text{Yearly Turnover} $[15] 7. Factor Name: Profitability - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies stocks with strong earnings performance[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Weighted combination of various profitability metrics, including analyst forecasts and financial ratios[15] 8. Factor Name: Growth - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the growth potential of a stock[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Weighted combination of earnings and revenue growth rates[15] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Beta Factor - Weekly Return: +0.14%[21] - Monthly Return: +1.65%[21] - Year-to-Date Return: +5.29%[21] 2. Size Factor - Weekly Return: +0.36%[21] - Monthly Return: +1.00%[21] - Year-to-Date Return: +6.37%[21] 3. Momentum Factor - Weekly Return: +2.21%[24] - Monthly Return: +8.80%[24] - Year-to-Date Return: +23.30%[24] 4. Volatility Factor - Weekly Return: +2.82%[24] - Monthly Return: +12.29%[24] - Year-to-Date Return: +25.25%[24] 5. Valuation Factor - Weekly Return: +1.47%[21] - Monthly Return: +2.30%[21] - Year-to-Date Return: -2.26%[21] 6. Liquidity Factor - Weekly Return: +1.80%[21] - Monthly Return: +5.91%[21] - Year-to-Date Return: +19.70%[21] 7. Profitability Factor - Weekly Return: +4.57%[21] - Monthly Return: +7.53%[21] - Year-to-Date Return: +27.56%[21] 8. Growth Factor - Weekly Return: +2.76%[24] - Monthly Return: +6.51%[24] - Year-to-Date Return: +14.51%[24]

证券研究报告：计算机|行业周报 发布时间：2025-09-01 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业基本情况 近期研究报告 《"人工智能+"顶层文件发布，步入 AI 大时代》 - 2025.08.27 人工智能行业报告 （2025.08.25-2025.08.31） | 收盘点位 | | 5755.35 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5841.52 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2844.68 | 行业相对指数表现 -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% 95% 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:陈涵泊 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080001 Email:chenhanbo@cnpsec.com 分析师:李佩京 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080003 Email:lipeijing@cnpsec.com 分析师:王思 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080002 Email:wangsi1 ...

证券研究报告 石化行业周报：本周石化板块整体表现一般， 持续关注反内卷 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-09-01 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：美油库存去化，平稳。持续关注反内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现一般，较上周下跌0.57%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周其他石化在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅1.15%。 ◼ 原油：能源价格震荡。美原油库存下降，美成品油库存表现分化 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格、价差均稳中有涨。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数上涨，织机开工率上涨 ◼ 烯烃：样本聚烯烃现货价格平稳，库存下降 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求变化、其他等。 本周石化表现一般，石油石化指数下跌0.57% 图表 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-09-01 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《微盘股成交占比持续回落 ——微盘股指数周报 20250824》 - 2025.08.25 《本周微盘股大幅跑输的三个原因— —微盘股指数周报 20250817》 盘股指数周报 20250720》 《"量化新规"或将平稳落地，双均线 《调整仍不充分——微盘股指数周报 20250622》 - 2025.08.18 《大盘资金流出，中小盘资金回流— —微盘股指数周报 20250810》 - 2025.08.11 《微盘股将再次迎来高胜率区间—— 微盘股指数周报 20250803》 - 2025.08.04 《微盘股持续创新高背后的历史意义 有何不同？——微盘股指数周报 - 2025.06.23 《短期上涨动能枯竭，控制仓位做好 防御——微盘股指数周报 20250615》 - 2025.06.16 《为何微盘股基金仓位下降指数却不 断新高？——微盘股指数周报 金工周报 微盘股成交占比进一步回落至年内低位 ——微盘 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.787 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.66%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 382 million yuan, up 9.49% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenues of 1.543 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.61% and a year-on-year increase of 23.94% [3]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by rising prices of tin and antimony, alongside ongoing efficiency improvements [3]. - The company has stable production levels for tin and antimony concentrates, with tin ingot production increasing by 19.30% year-on-year [4]. - Significant improvements in profitability were noted across subsidiaries, with net profits for Huaxi Mining, Gaofeng Mining, and Fozu Mining increasing by 13.71%, 47.02%, and 123.53% respectively [4]. - Future growth potential is highlighted by ongoing projects aimed at increasing mining capacity and efficiency, including the expansion of the Gaofeng mine and the successful transition of exploration rights at the Tongkeng tin-zinc mine to mining rights [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.709 billion yuan in 2025, 6.476 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.327 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.28%, 13.43%, and 13.15% respectively [5][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 829 million yuan in 2025, 953 million yuan in 2026, and 1.164 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 26.02%, 14.98%, and 22.17% respectively [5][8]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 24.32, 21.15, and 17.31 respectively [5][8].