证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《破内卷困局，离不开扩内需支撑》 - 2025.07.08 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：当前已是最佳路径 ⚫ 核心观点： 本周美股继续上涨，在降息预期前置以及投资者更加关注 2026 年业绩的背景下，三、四季度经济走弱的信号已经被投资者定价。但 关键在于定价的程度，当前市场对2026年SP500EPS的一致预期在300 美元，同比 14%。如此高的增长传递了投资者对经济基本面的乐观判 断，换句话讲，就算是经济走弱，美联储只要开始降息，那么反弹指 日可待。 从私人部门的资产负债表来看，这一判断也比较合理，唯二的不 确定性在于关税政策和通胀。政策增加不确定性，通胀则会推迟降息， 但目前来看，关税对物价的推动并不显著。结合当前并不算亢奋的市 场情绪以及未来很有可能发生的外资回流，我们在大方向上看多美 股，但也认为前述的风险情景并未完全排除。 经济数 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《破内卷困局，离不开扩内需支撑》 - 2025.07.08 宏观研究 融资需求稳中趋升，供给调控影响显现 投资要点 6 月金融数据呈现以下特点：一是实体经济融资需求回暖，或存 在供给侧调控影响，5 月降准降息落地、央行引导商业银行加大信贷 投放等；二是中美经贸谈判释放利好信号，市场风险偏好有所修复， 居民预算约束趋于谨慎的情况或有所缓解，居民加杠杆意愿有所回 升，居民新增贷款同比增加；三是因外部不确定性下降，市场风险偏 好修复，债券市场波动有所加剧，商业银行下调存款利率或并未导致 居民存款搬家行为发生；四是 M1 与 M2 同比增速剪刀差有所收窄，应 显示经济活跃度提升，但需关注供给侧调控影响，后续关注需求端内 生需求增长情况。 向后看，短期影响实体经济的变量主要集中于美关税政策影响和 国内"反内卷"政策落地情况。我们理解，以上两个变量 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the retail sales of consumer goods in June reached 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales amounted to 37,649 billion yuan, also growing by 4.8%. For the first half of the year, the total retail sales reached 245,458 billion yuan, marking a 5.0% increase, with non-automobile retail sales growing by 5.5% [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is 2,179.44, with a 52-week high of 2,501.51 and a low of 1,442.73 [2] Recent Performance - The report indicates a decline in retail sales growth in June, attributed to the impact of the "ban on alcohol" and the "618" shopping festival, resulting in a month-on-month decrease of 1.6 percentage points [6][9] Consumer Behavior Analysis - The report categorizes retail sales into goods and services, noting that the ban on alcohol significantly affected restaurant sales, which grew by only 0.9% year-on-year [6][8] - The report further breaks down retail sales into optional and essential categories, indicating that optional goods like home appliances and furniture performed well, while essential goods like food and beverages saw a slowdown [7][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the process of consumer recovery is gradual, with the worst period likely behind. It recommends focusing on new consumption opportunities such as trendy toys and gold jewelry, as well as cyclical sectors like liquor and hospitality if consumption policies continue to stimulate the economy [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Fixed Income Report [1] - Release Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Xie Peng [2] Group 2: Core Views - The liquidity of medium - and long - term, low - to medium - rated urban investment bonds has declined, while the liquidity of low - to medium - rated industrial bonds has increased [2][9][18] Group 3: Urban Investment Bonds Distribution and Yield - Regionally, high - grade liquid bonds in Jiangsu and Shandong increased, those in Tianjin and Chongqing remained stable, and those in Sichuan decreased. Yield fluctuations were within 1 - 2bp [9][10] - In terms of maturity, 1 - 2 - year high - grade liquid bonds increased, 1 - year - within, 2 - 3 - year bonds remained stable, and 3 - 5 - year and over - 5 - year bonds decreased [9][10] - By implicit rating, the number of high - grade liquid bonds with implicit ratings of AAA and AA - increased, while those with AA +, AA, and AA(2) decreased [9][10] Top 20 Ascending and Descending Liquidity Scores - Ascending: Mainly AA - rated, concentrated in Zhejiang, Anhui, etc., in industries like construction decoration and comprehensive [12] - Descending: Mainly AA - rated, in regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, in industries like construction decoration, real estate, and comprehensive [12] Group 4: Industrial Bonds Distribution and Yield - By industry, high - grade liquid bonds in real estate and steel increased, those in public utilities decreased, and those in transportation and coal remained stable. Yield changes varied by industry, grade, and maturity [18][19][20] - In terms of maturity, 1 - 2 - year and over - 5 - year high - grade liquid bonds increased, 1 - year - within and 3 - 5 - year bonds decreased, and 2 - 3 - year bonds remained stable [18][19] - By implicit rating, the number of high - grade liquid bonds with implicit ratings of AA + and AA increased, while those with AAA +, AAA, and AAA - remained stable [18][19] Top 20 Ascending and Descending Liquidity Scores - Ascending: Mainly in public utilities, construction decoration, and real estate, with AAA and AA + ratings [20] - Descending: Mainly in construction decoration, commerce and trade retail, and transportation, with AAA ratings [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 65 million to 90 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.78% to 103.23% [4][5] - The growth in revenue and decrease in expenses are key factors contributing to the high profit growth in H1 2025 [5] - The company is enhancing its self-research capabilities in domestic aviation materials, which is expected to improve supply chain security and reduce procurement costs [6] - The acceleration in the production and delivery of the C919 aircraft is anticipated to create a significant demand for aviation materials [7][8] - The company has implemented multiple measures to mitigate the impact of tariff shocks, ensuring stable operations [8] - Profit forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 138.4 million yuan, 169.85 million yuan, and 205.37 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27.69, 22.56, and 18.66 [10][11] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 33.28 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 3.8 billion yuan [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 13.5% and a P/E ratio of 30.43 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1][8] Core Views - The company is experiencing strong growth in consumer-grade laser applications and has made significant progress in its new energy business. Its laser products are primarily used in precision processing for consumer electronics and new energy sectors, showcasing advanced technology applications. The company achieved new orders of 585 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 89.38% [4][5] - The company is focusing on technological breakthroughs across multiple fields, including new energy, consumer electronics, and PCB processing. In the power battery sector, it has received bulk orders for laser cleaning equipment from leading clients, and its laser cutting equipment for perovskite solar cells is being applied in large-scale production lines [5][6] - The company is strategically positioning itself in the high-density optical interconnection market by investing in fiber array units (FAU), which are essential for next-generation data centers. This move is expected to create significant value through resource integration and collaboration with industry partners [6] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.892 billion yuan, 2.324 billion yuan, and 2.847 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The corresponding net profits are expected to be 200.58 million yuan, 260.46 million yuan, and 348.47 million yuan [7][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 40 times, 31 times, and 23 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][40]. Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry index increased by 1.09%, ranking 22nd among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index [5][13]. - The report highlights a slight rebound in the market, particularly in the fruit and vegetable processing and breeding sectors, while the aquaculture sector experienced a decline [5][16]. - The report indicates that pig prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a national average price of 14.52 yuan/kg as of July 13, 2025, a decrease of 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous week [6][19]. - The report anticipates seasonal fluctuations in pig prices, with a potential short-term increase during the peak consumption months of July and August, but significant pressure expected in the fourth quarter due to increased supply [7][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry index rose by 1.09%, while the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.82% and 1.09%, respectively [13]. - The report notes that the market is rebounding, with previously underperforming sectors seeing some recovery [14]. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - The average weight of pigs at market was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week [6][19]. - The report indicates that self-breeding and self-raising operations are still profitable, with average profits of 134 yuan per head, an increase of 14 yuan from the previous week [20][22]. - The report highlights a cautious approach to increasing production among breeding enterprises due to clear policy guidance [21][22]. Broilers - The price of white feather broiler chicks was 1.40 yuan/chick, a slight rebound of 0.3 yuan/chick from the previous week, with an average loss of 1.2 yuan per chick [32]. - The report notes that the demand for broilers is weak, leading to significant losses in the industry [32]. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices decreased slightly, with white sugar priced at 6100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [34]. - The price of corn was 2399 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 3 yuan/ton [34].

Export Performance - In June, China's export growth showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, surpassing the expected 3.21% and the five-year average of 4.14% by 1.66 percentage points[8] - The marginal improvement in exports to the US was significant, with a year-on-year growth rate of -16.3%, an increase of 18.39 percentage points from the previous value[10] - Exports to ASEAN countries also improved, with a growth rate of 16.74%, up 5.31 percentage points from the previous value[11] Import Performance - June imports increased by 1.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and the previous value by 4.5 percentage points[19] - The improvement in imports was primarily driven by increased imports from Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN, with positive contributions from these regions[22] Future Outlook - The extension of the US tariff exemption until August 1 may limit the recovery of China's export growth to the US in the second half of the year, creating downward pressure on exports[26] - If the US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in September, it could lead to a structural market rally in July, despite potential export slowdowns[28] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the effectiveness of policies remain key risks that could impact market stability[29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 0.98 to 1.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 183% to 220% [5][6] - The growth in revenue and improvement in gross margin are the main drivers behind the company's strong performance [6] - The company aims for a revenue target of 2.6 billion yuan for 2025, which is a 34% year-on-year increase, and anticipates exceeding its annual profit target of 140 million yuan [6][7] - The demand for nitrocellulose is increasing while supply is contracting, leading to a rise in both export volume and price [6][7] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing global demand for military-grade nitrocellulose and the potential market for environmentally friendly fireworks [7][8] Financial Performance and Projections - The company reported a net profit of 0.30 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with Q2 expected to show a significant increase to between 0.68 and 0.81 billion yuan [6] - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 includes projected revenues of 2.66 billion, 3.27 billion, and 3.95 billion yuan, with net profits of 186 million, 320 million, and 451 million yuan respectively [10][11] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 43, 25, and 18 times respectively [7][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - As of July 13, 16 out of 120 tracked defense industry listed companies have disclosed their 2025H1 performance forecasts, with significant growth in the shipbuilding and defense information sectors [4][12] - The defense industry is expected to see an inflection point in orders as the "Centenary of the Army Building Goals" enters its second half, with new technologies and products offering greater market elasticity [16][17] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 1632.72, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [1] Performance Forecasts - Among the 16 companies, 7 forecast positive performance with year-on-year growth, 3 forecast positive but declining performance, 2 forecast negative but reduced losses, and 4 forecast negative with expanded losses [12] Key Companies with High Growth - In the defense information sector, companies like High-Definition Infrared, Chengchang Technology, North Navigation, and Torch Electronics are expected to see performance growth rates of 846%, 335%, 252%, and 60% respectively [5][13] - In the shipbuilding sector, companies such as China Shipbuilding Industry, China State Shipbuilding Corporation, and China Power are expected to achieve growth rates of 209%, 109%, and 105% respectively [14][15] Investment Recommendations - Two main investment themes are suggested: 1) Aerospace and "gap-filling" new focuses, including companies like Feiliwa, Fenghuo Electronics, and others [16] 2) New technologies, products, and markets with greater elasticity, including companies like Aerospace Intelligence, Guorui Technology, and others [17] Market Performance - The defense sector indices showed a weekly increase, with the China Securities Military Industry Index rising by 1.05% [18] - The top ten performing stocks in the defense sector for the week included companies like Fushun Special Steel and China Shipbuilding, with increases ranging from 5.73% to 11.97% [20][21] Valuation Levels - As of July 11, 2025, the China Securities Military Industry Index stands at 11511.94, with a PE-TTM valuation of 114.07 and a PB valuation of 3.56 [22][24]