证券研究报告：银行|行业周报 证券研究报告：银行|金融数据预测月报 发布时间：2025-10-11 行业投资评级 中性 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 3981.95 | | 52 周最高 | 4670.31 | | 52 周最低 | 3596.91 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 银行 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:张银新 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001 Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《进入四季度银行负债端压力如何》 - 2025.09.29 金融数据预测月报 （2025.09.01-2025.09.30） 9 月社融增速或持续下探，新增信贷同比多增 l 投资要点 （1）预计 9 月新增人民币贷款（信贷口径）约 17000 亿元，同 比多增约 1100 亿元：9 月不同类型企业经营情况整体改善但仍现分 化，大型企业供需两 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic travel during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with 888 million domestic trips taken, an increase of 123 million compared to the previous year. Total spending reached 809 billion, up 108.2 billion from the previous year, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [4][5] - The report emphasizes the trend of consumers prioritizing experiences over material goods, reflecting a shift towards "paying for emotions and experiences" in travel choices [14][15] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is 8596.85, with a 52-week high of 9343.57 and a low of 7320.11 [1] Travel and Tourism Data - Daily average travel volume reached a historical high of 304 million during the holiday, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The report notes that railway, road, waterway, and civil aviation all saw increases in passenger volume [5][6] - The average hotel occupancy rate during the holiday was only 58%, down from 75% the previous year, with average room prices decreasing by 18% [9] Consumer Spending Insights - Retail and catering sales during the holiday increased by 2.7%, with significant growth in organic food sales, which rose by 27.9% [7][8] - The average price of domestic flights remained stable at 849 yuan, showing little change compared to previous years [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new consumption opportunities in sectors like trendy toys, gold jewelry, and new tea drinks, which align with current consumer trends [17] - It also recommends attention to cyclical sectors such as liquor, hotels, and restaurants, anticipating a recovery in these areas due to policy support [17]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [9]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading digital intelligent operation (AIOps) service provider, focusing on communication, information, and energy networks, supported by its "Qushi" platform to enhance operational efficiency and market valuation [5][6]. - The company is leveraging its 20 years of industry know-how and data advantages to drive AI transformation across its three main business segments, which is expected to enhance business value and market valuation [6][29]. - The company is strategically investing in the "Wuxiang Cloud Valley" intelligent computing center, which is expected to significantly boost its computing power and service capabilities, particularly in collaboration with Alibaba [7][47]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 49.20 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 140 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 104 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 64.7% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 55.28 [4]. Business Transformation - The company is transitioning from traditional service provision to intelligent operations, with a focus on AI-driven solutions across its core business areas [18]. - The company has established a comprehensive service network across China, enhancing its operational capabilities [18]. AI Infrastructure Development - The company is investing 36 billion yuan to develop the Wuxiang Cloud Valley intelligent computing center, which will significantly enhance its computing capabilities [47][50]. - The first phase of the center has been completed, providing 1000P computing power, with plans for further expansion [50][52]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company achieved a revenue of 48.87 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [5]. - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 1.60 billion, 5.07 billion, and 6.31 billion yuan, with significant growth expected in 2026 [9][59]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 102.91 billion, 123.70 billion, and 158.57 billion yuan, indicating a robust growth trajectory [59]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI applications in the ASEAN region, leveraging its geographical advantages and established partnerships [8][54]. - The company has successfully expanded its overseas business, particularly in the ASEAN market, with a revenue increase of 77.81% in the first half of 2025 [58].

中邮证券 行业研究报告 从工具到社交生态，Sora 2引领AI多模态 转型 行业投资评级：强于大市｜维持 陈涵泊/李佩京/王思 中邮证券研究所 人工智能团队 1 1 发布时间：2025-10-10 投资要点 风险提示：地缘政治冲与贸易风险、技术迭代不及预期、算力供应不及预期、行业竞争加剧风险等。 请参阅附注免责声明 2 Sora双箭齐发：2代铸就创意里程碑，App解锁AI社交新形态。 9月30日凌晨，OpenAI Sora 2正式发布，相较早期Sora文生视频模型，Sora 2改善早期Sora音频与画面往往不同步、物理运动不够真实、人物连贯性不足等问 题，实现创意领域的"ChatGPT时刻"。OpenAI同步推出一款名为Sora APP，上线第四天拿下了苹果美国应用商店App Store的免费应用榜第一名，并引入 "客串"和"混剪"功能，发展AI+社交新模式。 我们认为，OpenAI推出Sora APP这一平台性产品，本质上是从"单一对话工具"（ChatGPT）向"生态化社交平台"的核心战略转型。这一布局并非简单的功 能延伸，而是针对AI产品增长逻辑的深层优化，标志着OpenAI从"AI 工具提供商"向"AI ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The semiconductor business is driving significant profit growth, with revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 expected to be approximately 2.677 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders estimated between 501 million and 531 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.89% to 38.82% [4] - The company is the only domestic supplier fully mastering the core R&D technology and production process for CMP polishing pads, solidifying its leading position in the domestic market [5] - The company is expanding its product offerings in CMP polishing liquids and cleaning liquids, with significant growth in sales and customer acceptance [6][7] - The high-end wafer photoresist business is progressing rapidly, with nearly 30 products developed and several entering the testing phase [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.779 billion, 4.648 billion, and 5.611 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 719.65 million, 948.36 million, and 1.263 billion yuan [9] - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 25.14% in 2024, followed by 13.24% in 2025, and further growth in subsequent years [12] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.76 yuan, 1.00 yuan, and 1.33 yuan respectively [12]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-10-10 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《价格回升驱动企业利润改善，修复 斜率放缓》 - 2025.09.29 宏观研究 假期国内消费平稳增长，海外风险事件频出 核心观点 假期居民出行需求平稳增长，长途游和跨境游亮点纷呈。第一， 居民出行需求平稳增长。交通运输部消息，今年国庆假期预计全社会 跨区域人员流动量 24.32 亿人次，日均 3.04 亿人次，较 2024 年同期 日均流量增长 6.2%，较 2019 年同期增长 331.03%。假期出行主要呈 现两个特点：一是自驾游热度持续，公路出行是最主要出行方式，且 保持较高增速；二是水路出行增速明显提升。10.1-10.7，水路出行人 次 1078.46 万人次，同比增速 10.05%，虽然总人数仍较低，但增速明 显提升。第二，旅游保持高热度，跨境游活跃度延续高景气。国内长 途出游需求热度高，同 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-10-10 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报：美国 GDP 上修，经济 韧性仍存》 - 2025.10.06 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：美国消费与就业分化，美元短期企 稳 ⚫ 核心观点： 当前美国经济呈现出"消费强劲+就业市场疲软"的非典型组合， 出现这一现象的内在原因是美国企业吸收了大量的关税冲击后并未 大幅涨价，从而稳定了居民购买力，但同时企业为了应对抬升的成本 也在降本增效，这导致了就业市场的疲软。相比之下，2021 年企业同 样面临成本攀升与供应瓶颈，但当时需求旺盛、通胀预期上升，为企 业提供了涨价空间。企业通过提价成功对冲了部分成本上升，并在扩 充产能与增加雇佣的同时实现利润增长。但今年以来企业定价能力弱 化，成本冲击更多被企业内部吸收，涨价幅度远小于成本抬升幅度， 企业投资与用工扩张动力减弱。 整体来看，除就业数据以外，美国经 ...

股票投资评级 增持|维持 个股表现 -24% -17% -10% -3% 4% 11% 18% 25% 32% 39% 46% 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 中文在线 传媒 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 27.06 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）7.29 / 6.60 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）197 / 179 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 35.59 / 18.47 | | 资产负债率(%) | 38.5% | | 市盈率 | -81.29 | | 第一大股东 | 童之磊 | 证券研究报告：传媒 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-10-10 研究所 分析师:王晓萱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522080005 Email:wangxiaoxuan@cnpsec.com 中文在线(300364) Q2 业绩验证基本面向好，看好 IP+出海顺势起量 ⚫ 事件回顾 2025 年 8 月 22 日，公司发布 2025 年半年报， 2025H1，公司实 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a stable revenue of 4.36 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 1.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [4][5]. - The core products and subsidiary revenues are performing steadily, with significant contributions from various product lines [5]. - The licensing agreement for the 707 product with Pfizer is expected to enhance profits and reduce risks associated with global market expansion [6][7]. Company Overview - Latest closing price: HKD 30.94 - Total shares: 2.432 billion, with a market capitalization of HKD 75.2 billion - 52-week high/low: HKD 36.80 / HKD 5.43 - Debt-to-asset ratio: 25.51% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 27.4 [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 9.108 billion, 19.723 billion, 10.840 billion, and 12.075 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 17%, 117%, -45%, and 11% [9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.090 billion, 9.693 billion, 2.405 billion, and 2.762 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 35%, 364%, -75%, and 15% [9]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 3.99 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 6.96 [9]. Product Development and Market Potential - The 707 product, a dual antibody targeting PD-1/VEGF, has shown promising clinical data and is expected to be a cornerstone in global oncology treatment [6][7]. - The product has received breakthrough therapy designation in China and is undergoing multiple clinical trials for various cancers [7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [9]. Core Insights - The company has significantly increased its investment in AI, anticipating long-term benefits from overseas expansion [4][6]. - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.95%, and a net profit of 144 million yuan, up 8.82% year-on-year [4]. - The e-commerce segment has shown remarkable growth, with revenue reaching 544 million yuan, a 102.22% increase year-on-year [5]. - The company is enhancing its programmatic advertising capabilities, which has led to improved gross margins [5][6]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with major global media platforms, positioning itself to benefit from the growing demand for overseas advertising [7][8]. Company Overview - Latest closing price: 32.25 yuan - Total shares: 472 million, circulating shares: 373 million - Total market capitalization: 15.2 billion yuan, circulating market capitalization: 12 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 38.50/16.23 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 37.9% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 65.82 [3]. Financial Projections - Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.403 billion, 4.120 billion, and 4.795 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 278 million, 344 million, and 419 million yuan [11][14]. - The company anticipates an EPS of 0.59, 0.73, and 0.89 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][11].