证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2025-10-21 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2928.93 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 3158.8 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2367.56 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《节后猪价宽幅下跌》 - 2025.10.14 农林牧渔行业报告 （2025.10.13-2025.10.19） 猪价止跌，9 月产能去化 ⚫ 行情回顾：调整下跌 上周市场调整，农业板块亦随之下行。农林牧渔（申万）指数则 累计下跌 2.20%，在申万 31 个一级行业中涨幅排名第 13 位。除动物 保健外，其余农业子板块均下跌。 ⚫ 猪：价格止跌，9 月产能调减 上周全国猪价先降后涨。前半周全国生猪均价延续前期跌势至 10.87 元/公斤，连创新低。下半周猪价低位反弹，截至 10 月 19 日， 全国猪价微涨至 11.03 元/公斤。短期看，猪价或已阶段 ...

证券研究报告：商贸零售|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 2286.43 | | 52 周最高 | 2501.51 | | 52 周最低 | 1796.9 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -9% -4% 1% 6% 11% 16% 21% 26% 31% 36% 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 商贸零售 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李鑫鑫 SAC 登记编号:S1340525010006 Email:lixinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外复盘：任天堂——创造惊喜的 游戏王国》 - 2025.10.17 9 月社零数据如何？ ⚫ 事件 国家统计局发布最新社零数据，9月份社会消费品零售总额41971 亿元，同比增长 3.0%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 37260 亿 元，增长 3.2%。1—9 月份，社会消费品零售总额 365877 亿元，增长 4.5%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 329954 亿元，增长 4. ...

证券研究报告：有色金属 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-10-21 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 30.17 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）265.78 | / 205.88 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）8,018 | / 6,211 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 32.38 / 15.02 | | 资产负债率(%) | 55.2% | | 市盈率 | 24.93 | | 第一大股东 | 闽西兴杭国有资产投资 | | 经营有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340525070002 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 紫金矿业(601899) Q3 表现亮眼，静待 Q4 业绩更上楼一层 l 公司发布 25 年三季报，Q3 实现归母净利润 146 亿元 公司发布三季报，Q1-Q3，公司实现营业收入 2542 亿元，同比增 长 10.3%；实现 ...

证券研究报告：建筑材料 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-10-20 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -5% 4% 13% 22% 31% 40% 49% 58% 67% 76% 85% 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 三棵树 建筑材料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 46.28 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）7.38 / 7.38 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）341 / 341 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 54.18 / 32.23 | | | 资产负债率(%) | 78.8% | | 市盈率 | 73.46 | | 第一大股东 | 洪杰 | 三棵树(603737) 零售新业态推进卓有成效，Q3 盈利持续提升 事件 公司发布 25 年三季报，公司 25 年前三季度实现收入 93.9 亿元， 同比+2.7%，归母净利润 7.4 亿元，同比+81.2%，扣非净利润 5.65 亿 元，同比+126.4%。其中，Q3 单季度实现收入 35.8 亿元，同比+5. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing continued pressure with both investment and sales declining. In the first nine months of 2025, national real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%, with the decline rate widening by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. The sales area of new commercial housing was 65,835 million square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year, and the sales amount was 63,040 billion yuan, down 7.9% [4][5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals Tracking - **New Housing Transactions and Inventory**: In the last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 198.09 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 70,689.5 million square meters, down 4.9% year-on-year. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 165.43 million square meters, down 18.1% year-on-year, but up 5.9% month-on-month [5][13] - **Second-hand Housing Transactions and Listings**: In the last week, the transaction area of second-hand housing in 20 cities was 215.09 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 8,859.15 million square meters, up 13.4% year-on-year [19][21] - **Land Market Transactions**: In the last week, 100 major cities saw 101 new residential land supplies and 32 transactions. The average floor price for residential land was 5,539.5 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 2.92% [26] Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index fell by 2.35%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 2.22%. The real estate index lagged behind the CSI 300 by 0.12 percentage points [32][34]

强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 5228.93 | | 52 | 周最高 | 5841.52 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3963.29 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 25% 29% 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 证券研究报告：计算机|点评报告 发布时间：2025-10-20 行业投资评级 研究所 分析师:陈涵泊 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080001 Email:chenhanbo@cnpsec.com 分析师:李佩京 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080003 Email:lipeijing@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《从 Sierra 看 AI 落地，AI 应用的价 值在于为结果付费》 - 2025.10.13 沐曦冲刺 IPO，锚定关键客户筑牢国产 GPU 替代根 基 ⚫ 沐曦 IPO 即将上会，拟募资 39 亿元用于 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market in the fourth quarter may move in a volatile manner. The current bond market has investment value, but the trading sentiment should be "halted, not chased." If there is a policy rate cut, the short - end and long - end yields will show different trends, and redemption disturbances may increase [3][10][19]. - The financial data shows marginal improvement. The abnormal fluctuation of non - bank deposits may be related to the behavior of deposit investment institutions. The growth of residents' medium - and long - term credit is a positive marginal signal [3][11]. - The broad fiscal policy has intensified efforts at the beginning of the fourth quarter, including the launch of new policy - based financial tools and the issuance of local government bonds. This may drive the re - issuance of PSL, and increase the bond issuance pressure from late October to November [3][4][13]. - A window for monetary easing may open. With the intensification of fiscal policy, the total monetary policy may be loosened, and there are suitable time windows for this [4][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fiscal Policy - **Policy - based Financial Tools**: In late September, a new policy - based financial tool with a total amount of 50 billion yuan was announced. It will be jointly funded by three policy banks and support areas such as "technological innovation, green transformation, consumption upgrade, and foreign trade stability." The historical PSL has been concentratedly issued in three rounds, and this new tool may drive the re - issuance of PSL [13][15]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The Ministry of Finance will allocate 50 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local areas. The current year's local government debt limit and balance have a revitalization space of about 1.2 trillion yuan. This issuance may increase the bond issuance pressure from late October to November [13][17]. 3.2 Financial Data - **Residents' Medium - and Long - term Credit**: In September, residents' medium - and long - term new loans increased year - on - year, which is a marginal positive signal [11]. - **Non - bank Deposits**: Non - bank deposits declined beyond the seasonal norm, with significantly increased volatility. This may be related to the behavior of deposit investment institutions to reduce the scale of non - bank deposits at the end of the quarter, and institutions such as money funds and wealth management products have increased their investment in short - term fixed deposits [11]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - **Policy Synergy**: With the strengthening of the synergy effect of macro - policies, the linkage between fiscal and monetary policies has increased in recent years. After the broad fiscal policy enters the window of strength, the total monetary policy may be loosened [19]. - **Time Window**: Around important meetings in October and around the Politburo meeting are suitable time windows for monetary easing. The adjustment of the equity market and the decline of the non - manufacturing employment sub - index are also favorable factors [19].

证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 发布时间：2025-10-20 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5129.37 | | 52 周最高 | 5355.99 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 建筑材料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中美贸易摩擦升温，关注低位内需板 块》 - 2025.10.13 建材行业报告 （2025.10.13-2025.10.19） 内需避险逻辑强化，关注低位建材板块 投资要点 我们认为市场短期进入内需逻辑强化的窗口，一方面市场风偏下 降，中美贸易摩擦升温、三季报的落地、以及科技板块的回调，可能 促使市场增强对于低位内需板块的关注。我们认为，建材板块中具备 内需+高股 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][47]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the medical device procurement is gradually reflecting principles of "stabilizing clinical needs, ensuring quality, preventing collusion, and countering price wars" [6][30]. - The report suggests that the recent adjustments in procurement rules indicate a shift towards a more moderate approach, focusing on clinical needs and product quality rather than solely on low prices [6][30]. - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term development in the domestic medical device industry as procurement becomes more reasonable [6][30]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the medical and biological sector is 8583.87, with a 52-week high of 9323.49 and a low of 6764.34 [2]. Market Performance - During the week of October 13-17, 2025, the A-share medical and biological sector fell by 2.48%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.26 percentage points but outperforming the ChiNext index by 3.23 percentage points [7][36]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index decreased by 5.85%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.88 percentage points [7][36]. Industry Opinions and Investment Recommendations 1. **Innovative Drugs**: The innovative drug sector is experiencing adjustments, with a recommendation to maintain or increase positions based on long-term industry development logic. Key companies to watch include Innovent Biologics, 3SBio, and others [8][21]. 2. **Medical Devices**: The report notes that the National Medical Insurance Administration's recent procurement documents aim to optimize price differences and control "anchor points," indicating a move away from simply selecting the lowest bid [8][29]. 3. **Research Services**: The report expresses optimism about investment opportunities in the research services sector, particularly for companies with strong competitive advantages [26]. Sector Valuation - As of October 17, 2025, the overall valuation of the medical sector (TTM) is 30.03, a decrease of 0.84 from the previous week. The sector's valuation premium over the CSI 300 index is 123.96%, down by 4.90 percentage points [43].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the liquor sector is gradually bottoming out, with stable demand for banquet consumption, particularly for weddings, while business consumption remains under pressure. The high-end and mid-low price segments are performing relatively well, but the sub-high-end segment is under pressure. The prices of major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are currently under pressure, with Moutai priced below 1800 RMB and Wuliangye around 850 RMB [5][18] - The overall performance of the liquor industry is expected to decline, with most companies experiencing varying degrees of revenue drop, except for Moutai and Fenjiu [5][18] Summary by Sections Liquor - The impact of the alcohol ban in July and August affected normal consumption and sales, but this influence has gradually diminished since September. The sales during the National Day period showed a general improvement compared to previous months [5][18] - Price performance shows that high-end and mid-low segments are stable, while the sub-high-end segment is under pressure. Current prices for Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guojiao are under pressure [5][18] - For Q3, it is expected that except for Moutai and Fenjiu, other liquor companies will see revenue declines, with some experiencing a further drop compared to Q2 [5][18] Beer - Qingdao Beer is expected to see slight growth in Q3 due to a low sales base from the previous year, with a focus on fresh products and high-end items. The average price is also expected to increase slightly [6][20] - Chongqing Beer is facing pressure in high-end product sales, with expectations of flat performance year-on-year. New factory depreciation is anticipated to impact profits [6][20] - Yanjing Beer continues to grow due to its flagship product U8, with supply chain management and efficiency improvements driving profitability [6][20] Dairy Products - Yili is expected to face pressure in its ambient liquid milk segment, while milk powder and cold drinks continue to grow. Cost pressures are anticipated to affect gross margins [6][21] - Miao Ke Lan Duo is expected to maintain its revenue performance, with improvements in the B2B restaurant channel and highlights in the C-end family dining series [6][21] Soft Drinks - Dongpeng Beverage is expected to continue its steady growth in energy drinks, with new products showing higher growth rates. Profit growth is expected to slightly exceed revenue growth due to cost advantages [6][22] - Yangyuan Beverage is expected to maintain flat revenue, with increased promotional activities impacting gross margins [6][22] Food Supply Chain - Anji Food is expected to see positive monthly performance, with overall revenue growth projected in the mid-single digits year-on-year [6][23] - Qianwei Central Kitchen is expected to see stable growth in the B2B segment, while the small B segment remains competitive [6][23] Snack Foods - Wanchen Group is expected to accelerate store openings, with revenue and profit growth anticipated to remain high [6][24] - Salted Snack Company is expected to continue its growth trend, driven by successful product launches [6][24] Export Companies - The domestic pet industry continues to see strong growth, with companies like Zhongchong reporting better-than-expected growth in domestic brands [6][9] - Peti's export business is expected to continue its downward trend, while health product exports are expected to improve [6][9] Recent Mergers and Acquisitions - Mixue Group plans to acquire Fulu Family to expand its market presence and reduce logistics costs [6][27] - Yiyi Group is planning to acquire Gao Ye Family to enhance its domestic market presence and leverage existing channels [6][28]