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农林牧渔行业报告(2026.1.9-2026.1.16):猪价偏强震荡
China Post Securities· 2026-01-20 02:27
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The agricultural sector continues to perform poorly, with the agricultural index down 3.26%, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [4][14] - Pig prices are showing a slight upward trend, with an average price of 12.44 CNY/kg, up 1.92% from the previous week [5][20] - The supply of pigs is expected to decrease in the second half of 2026, potentially leading to a new upward cycle in pig prices [5][23] - The white feather chicken market is facing downward pressure, with chick prices dropping to 2.7 CNY/bird, down 1 CNY from before the hatching pause [7][33] - The planting sector shows mixed trends, with sugar prices slightly decreasing and cotton prices increasing [37] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector continues to underperform, with the agricultural index down 3.27% this week [14] - The pig farming sector is leading the decline due to recent price fluctuations [17] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - Prices are slightly recovering, with an average price of 12.44 CNY/kg, and piglet prices rising to 336 CNY/head, an increase of 31 CNY from last week [5][20] - The industry remains in a loss position, with expectations of continued losses as supply pressures persist [5][23] - The production capacity is expected to continue decreasing, with a potential new cycle beginning in the second half of 2026 [23][24] White Feather Chicken - Chick prices have decreased due to weak demand and an accumulation of breeding eggs during the hatching pause [7][33] - The overall supply remains high despite a decrease in the number of breeding stock updates due to avian influenza outbreaks [7][33] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 5345 CNY/ton, while cotton prices have increased to 15978 CNY/ton [37] - Soybean prices have shown minor adjustments, with Brazilian soybeans at 3611 CNY/ton and U.S. soybeans at 4638 CNY/ton, both down by approximately 1% [37]
英矽智能:BD合作又下一城,AI制药价值持续兑现-20260119
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 10:24
证券研究报告:医药生物 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 增持|首次覆盖 协议概要:根据协议,英矽智能将有资格获得最高 3200 万美元 的首付款及近期研发里程碑付款,并将依托其自主研发的人工智能技 术平台,筛选并推进符合既定药物研发与科学标准的潜在候选药物。 施维雅将共同承担研发成本,并在成功提名具有前景的候选药物后, 主导后续临床验证、监管沟通,以及相关肿瘤候选药物在全球范围内 的商业化进程。 公司 AI 赋能肿瘤药物研发能力再获认可。 英矽智能在人工智能驱动的肿瘤药物研发方面拥有丰富经验,公 司已建立起覆盖多种癌症适应症的管线。其中,具有潜力成为同类最 佳(best-in-class)疗法的泛 TEAD 抑制剂 ISM6331 以及 MAT2A 抑制 剂 ISM3412,均已启动全球多中心 I 期临床试验。此外,公司还有四 个肿瘤项目已全部或部分对外授权给合作伙伴,相关 I 期临床试验正 在稳步推进中。 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价(港元) | 55.20 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本(亿股)5.57/1.21 | | | | 总市值/流通市值(亿港 | 308/6 ...
医药生物行业周报:26年小核酸行业催化不断,持续看好产业链投资机会
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 10:24
证券研究报告:医药生物|行业周报 发布时间:2026-01-19 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 8657.19 | | 52 | 周最高 | 9323.49 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6876.88 | 行业相对指数表现 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈灿 SAC 登记编号:S1340525070001 Email:chencan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《未来已至,"AI+医疗"行业或迎巨变》 - 2026.01.14 医药生物行业报告2026.01(.12-2026.01.16) 26 年小核酸行业催化不断,持续看好产业链投资 机会 ⚫ 本周主题 本周我们梳理海外siRNA公司在研项目26年数据读出等催化剂。 Alnylam:推进 Nucresiran 用于 ATTR-CM 和 ATTR-PN 的 III 期试 验、推进 AGT siRNA 药物 Zilebesi ...
地产行业报告:地产延续调整,等待销售边际企稳
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 08:27
证券研究报告:房地产|行业周报 发布时间:2026-01-19 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 2227.38 | | 52 周最高 | 2436.17 | | 52 周最低 | 1870.99 | 行业相对指数表现 -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 2025-11 2026-01 房地产 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:高丁卉 SAC 登记编号:S1340524080001 Email:gaodinghui@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《预计一季度新房成交数据承压》 - 2026.01.12 房地产行业报告 (2026.1.12-2026.1.18) 地产延续调整 等待销售边际企稳 ⚫ 投资要点 根据统计局数据,2025 年全国房地产开发投资 82788 亿元,同比 -17.2%,房屋新开工面积 58770 万平方米,同比-20.4%。新建商品房 销售面积 88101 万平方米,同比-8.7%。2025 ...
2026-01-19:26年小核酸行业催化不断,持续看好产业链投资机会
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 08:24
证券研究报告:医药生物|行业周报 -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 30% 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 2025-11 2026-01 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈灿 SAC 登记编号:S1340525070001 Email:chencan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 发布时间:2026-01-19 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 8657.19 | | 52 | 周最高 | 9323.49 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6876.88 | 行业相对指数表现 《未来已至,"AI+医疗"行业或迎巨变》 - 2026.01.14 医药生物行业报告2026.01(.12-2026.01.16) 26 年小核酸行业催化不断,持续看好产业链投资 机会 ⚫ 本周主题 本周我们梳理海外siRNA ...
高频数据跟踪20260119:生产、物价走势均分化
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 07:27
Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: January 19, 2026 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC ID: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC ID: S1340523120001) [2] Core Views - High - frequency economic data focuses: production end shows a differentiated heat, with the decline in the operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, and PTA, and the increase in the operating rates of asphalt, PX, and tires; the floor area of commercial housing transactions continues to decline while the land supply area slightly increases; price trends are also differentiated, with slight increases in the prices of crude oil, zinc, and rebar, and copper prices rising and then falling; the overall price of agricultural products continues to decline, but the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits all increase. In the short term, pay attention to the implementation of fiscal and monetary coordination policies [3][32] Section Summaries Production - Steel: The utilization rate of coke oven capacity decreased by 0.14 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.47 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 0.74 tons in the week of January 16. The inventory also decreased by 5.27 tons [9] - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate continued to rise by 1.8 pct from a low level in the week of January 14 [9] - Chemical Industry: The PX operating rate increased by 1.25 pct, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.65 pct on January 15 [9] - Automobile Tires: The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 4.91 pct, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 7.55 pct in the week of January 15 [10] Demand - Real Estate: In the week of January 11, the floor area of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 107.21 square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased by 39.32 square meters, and the premium rate of residential land transactions increased by 0.62 pct [13] - Movie Box Office: It decreased by 711 million yuan in the week of January 11 [13] - Automobile: In the week of January 11, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 92,800 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales decreased by 175,200 vehicles [17] - Shipping Freight Rates: In the week of January 16, the SCFI index decreased by 4.45%, the CCFI index increased by 1.25%, and the BDI index decreased by 7.17% and has been falling rapidly since the peak in early December last year [20] Prices - Energy: The Brent crude oil price rose by 1.25% to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, while the coking coal futures price decreased by 0.34% to 1,184 yuan per ton [22] - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 1.5%, - 0.06%, and + 1.76% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price rose by 0.86% on January 16 [22] - Agricultural Products: The overall price continued to decline, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices decreasing by 0.37%. However, the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits increased by 0.56%, 3.31%, 0.18%, and 1.91% respectively compared with the previous week on January 16 [25] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, the seven - day moving average of subway passenger volume decreased by 484,700 and 287,100 person - times respectively on January 16 [28] - Flight Operations: On January 17, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight operations increased by 405.29 flights, domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 1.14 flights, and international flights decreased by 18.86 flights [30] - Urban Traffic: On January 17, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.03 [30]
证券行业报告(2026.01.12-2026.01.16):公告券商核心业务全面发力,印证行业全面复苏
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 06:46
证券研究报告:证券Ⅱ|行业周报 发布时间:2026-01-19 行业投资评级 中性|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 6908.27 | | 52 | 周最高 | 7730.11 | | 52 | 周最低 | 5627.38 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:王泽军 SAC 登记编号:S1340525110003 Email:wangzejun@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《低利率+高成交+理性杠杆,助力券 商维持景气度》 - 2026.01.12 证券行业报告(2026.01.12-2026.01.16) 公告券商核心业务全面发力,印证行业全面复苏 ⚫ 投资要点 头部券商中信证券与中小特色券商西南证券发布公告,2025 年业 绩表现亮眼,分别实现 38.46%和 47%-57%的净利润同比增长,印证行 业全面复苏。2025 年券商业绩高增得益于资本市场交投活跃、投行业 务回暖及政策支持,行业盈利传导路径通畅。叠加当前流动性红利, 券商板块估值或有望继续修复。 ⚫ 行业基本面跟踪 -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 1 ...
石化行业周报:受地缘影响,原油周内计价风险溢价
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 05:45
证券研究报告 石化行业周报:受地缘影响,原油周内计价风 险溢价 行业投资评级:强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间:2026-01-19 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点:PX、PTA供需今年边际好转预期。依据wind和隆众资讯,PX(中国主港)-石脑油(日本)的 价差开始回落,15日为326.08美元/吨,关注价差调整后的再度走强。受伊朗地缘影响,原油周内计价 风险溢价。 ◼ 回顾:本周申万一级行业指数表现中,石油石化指数表现一般,较上周上涨-0.27%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看,本周油田服务在石油石化中表现最佳,涨幅1.63%。 ◼ 原油:原油涨;美原油库存上涨,汽油库存下跌 ◼ 聚酯:涤纶长丝价格稳;江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数不同品种涨跌不一,织机开工率跌 ◼ 烯烃:样本PE现货价格涨,聚烯烃石化库存下跌 ◼ 标的: ➢ 上游:地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价,则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化:若需求好转,优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展,则利好中游炼化。 ➢ 长丝:关注PTA反内卷进展和PX利润修复,若顺利则利好涤纶长丝。 ...
石化行业周报:受地缘影响,原油周内计价风险溢价-20260119
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 05:27
投资要点 证券研究报告 石化行业周报:受地缘影响,原油周内计价风 险溢价 行业投资评级:强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间:2026-01-19 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点:PX、PTA供需今年边际好转预期。依据wind和隆众资讯,PX(中国主港)-石脑油(日本)的 价差开始回落,15日为326.08美元/吨,关注价差调整后的再度走强。受伊朗地缘影响,原油周内计价 风险溢价。 ◼ 回顾:本周申万一级行业指数表现中,石油石化指数表现一般,较上周上涨-0.27%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看,本周油田服务在石油石化中表现最佳,涨幅1.63%。 ◼ 原油:原油涨;美原油库存上涨,汽油库存下跌 ◼ 聚酯:涤纶长丝价格稳;江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数不同品种涨跌不一,织机开工率跌 ◼ 烯烃:样本PE现货价格涨,聚烯烃石化库存下跌 ◼ 标的: ➢ 上游:地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价,则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化:若需求好转,优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展,则利好中游炼化。 ➢ 长丝:关注PTA反内卷进展和PX利润修复,若顺利则利好涤纶长丝。 ...
机构行为系列专题四:银行理财的权益增量
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 05:26
证券研究报告:固定收益报告 发布时间:2026-01-19 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:王一 SAC 登记编号:S1340125070001 Email:wangyi8@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《"春季躁动"对债市有何影响?—— 看股做债专题二》 - 2026.01.13 年末阶段理财产品总规模出现季节性回落,主要反映资金阶段性 回表与配置节奏变化。随着存款利率中枢持续下行,前期集中形成的 高息定期存款将在 2026 年一季度陆续到期,续存收益明显下降,为 理财等非存款类产品提供潜在再配置窗口。在权益行情回暖背景下, 新增理财产品结构仍延续稳健取向,新发产品主要集中于纯固收与低 权重固收+,中低风险产品继续承担新增资金的主要承载功能,权益 类与混合类产品在发行数量上有所增加,但募集规模仍然有限,整体 发行导向保持克制。 ⚫ 理财参与权益的特征:固收+为主,权益类点缀 理财参与权益市场的核心方式集中在固收+与多资产组合层面, 存量产品普遍以债券资产作为收益和波动的基础,通过配置可转债、 ...