自 2024 年 7 月政治局会议首次提出防止"内卷式"恶性竞争以来， "反内卷"的概念已从新兴产业的不正当竞争逐步延伸至基础行业的产 能调控与价格稳定，已在重要会议定调、《价格法》修订等动向中有所 体现。"反内卷"聚焦价格领域问题，意味着宏观政策在应对国内有效 需求偏弱问题和稳物价目标上的积极意图。行业层面，上半年汽车、 光伏、钢铁、水泥等已先行表态，7 月以来建筑、快递、煤炭、生猪、 银行、造纸等相继跟进，覆盖产业链上下游。随着中央会议和行业自 律的自上而下推动，"反内卷"的政策效应正在累积，其重要地位或在 年末中央经济工作会议上进一步明确，并成为长期战略。 ⚫ 从利润指标看行业"内卷"程度分化如何 证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:王一 SAC 登记编号:S1340125070001 Email:wangyi8@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《9 月，信用的机会在哪里？——信用 周报 20250903》 - 2025.09.03 固收专题 "反内卷"对债市的中长期 ...

证券研究报告：机械设备|公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-09-05 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 15.42 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）5.76 | / 5.76 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）89 | / 89 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 21.50 / 14.51 | | 资产负债率(%) | 48.5% | | 市盈率 | 10.35 | | 第一大股东 | 景津投资有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:刘卓 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110001 Email:liuzhuo@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈基赟 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070003 Email:chenjiyun@cnpsec.com 景津装备(603279) 业绩受新能源影响，现金流表现亮眼 l 事件描述 公司发布 2025 年中报，2025H1 实现营收 28.26 亿元，同减 9.62%；实现归母净利润 3.28 亿元，同减 28.51%；实现扣非归母净利 润 3.20 亿元，同减 28.18%。 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 l 事件点评 短期业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expectation of a price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within six months [9][15]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.42 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit of 520 million yuan, up 26.4% year-on-year. The growth is attributed to the continuous development of distributed photovoltaic projects and the expansion of energy trading services [3][4]. - The integration of AI and blockchain technology is expected to enhance the transparency and liquidity of energy assets, thereby improving operational efficiency [4][9]. - The company has significantly increased its energy service revenue, with a 378.81% year-on-year growth in H1 2025, driven by energy-saving services and trading services [6][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 11.84 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 19.2 billion yuan. The company has a total share capital of 1.623 billion shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 66.7% [2][3]. - The company operates a total installed capacity of 6,479.19 MW, including various energy sources such as gas, coal, solar, wind, and waste-to-energy [5][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 12.12 billion yuan, 14.16 billion yuan, and 15.51 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 950 million yuan, 1.18 billion yuan, and 1.32 billion yuan [9][11]. - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 20, 16, and 15 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][11].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential of the retail trade industry, particularly in the context of the ongoing recovery and expansion in consumer spending [1][4] - The report highlights the importance of IP (Intellectual Property) in driving sales and brand recognition, with successful examples from companies like LEGO [4][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index level is 2350.88, with a 52-week high of 2501.51 and a low of 1442.73 [1] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investment in companies like Pop Mart (9992.HK) and Blokko (300590.SZ), both rated as "Buy" with respective closing prices of 306.60 HKD and 96.70 CNY [11] Company Overview - LEGO Group, founded in 1932, is a leading player in the toy industry, known for its plastic building blocks and a strong commitment to quality and sustainability [16] - As of August 2025, LEGO has 22 licensed IP themes and 19 proprietary themes, with significant sales driven by popular franchises like Star Wars and Harry Potter [16][18] Development History - LEGO's evolution from a traditional toy manufacturer to a comprehensive IP-driven enterprise is marked by several key phases, including the establishment of a standardized building block system and the strategic shift towards self-created IP [26][46] Competitive Advantages - LEGO's competitive edge lies in its precise targeting of customer needs, innovative product development, and strong community engagement through initiatives like the LEGO Ideas platform [7][9] Financial Analysis - LEGO has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.22% in revenue from 2020 to 2024, with significant contributions from the Americas, which accounted for nearly half of its total revenue by 2024 [22][23] - The company's gross and net profit margins have remained stable at around 70% and 20%, respectively, supported by its strong brand recognition and product pricing power [25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7][58]. Core Insights - The company is a state-controlled enterprise engaged in electricity and water supply, with a comprehensive service network. It has a 100% market share in electricity supply and nearly 90% in water supply within its jurisdiction as of 2025H1 [4][17]. - The company has shown steady long-term growth, with a 10-year CAGR of 8.6% in revenue and 7.9% in net profit from 2014 to 2024 [4][22]. - The ongoing energy reform and integration of generation, transmission, and sales are expected to enhance the company's comprehensive energy services [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 10.05 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 55 billion yuan and a PE ratio of 26.30 [3]. - The company has a low debt ratio of 27.1%, indicating a stable financial position [3][33]. Business Performance - In 2025H1, the company reported revenues of 1.52 billion yuan and a net profit of 70 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.7% in revenue but a decline of 13.1% in net profit due to reduced water inflow [22]. - The company’s electricity and water sales have shown robust growth, with a CAGR of 12.9% and 5.5% respectively from 2015 to 2024 [50]. Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 3.13 billion, 3.40 billion, and 3.65 billion yuan, with net profits of 210 million, 220 million, and 220 million yuan respectively. The net profit CAGR for this period is estimated at 4.6% [7][57]. - The diluted EPS for the same period is forecasted to be 0.38, 0.39, and 0.41 yuan [7][57]. Valuation - The PE multiples based on the current stock price for 2025-2027 are projected to be 27, 25, and 24 times respectively [7][58]. - The report references comparable companies for valuation, considering the company's active expansion into comprehensive energy services [58].

股票投资评级 增持 |维持 个股表现 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 -5% 3% 11% 19% 27% 35% 43% 51% 59% 67% 宏华数科 机械设备 证券研究报告：机械设备|公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-09-05 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 72.08 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）1.79 | / 1.79 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）129 | / 129 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 85.00 / 60.38 | | 资产负债率(%) | 24.9% | | 市盈率 | 31.07 | | 第一大股东 | 宁波维鑫企业管理合伙 | | 企业(有限合伙) | | 研究所 分析师:刘卓 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110001 Email:liuzhuo@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈基赟 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070003 Email:chenjiyun@cnpsec.com 宏华数科(688789) 业绩稳健向上 ...

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 裕太微(688515) 2.5G PHY 高速增长 l 事件 市场复苏不及预期；竞争格局加剧风险；产品研发及技术创新不 及预期；客户导入不及预期。 | n | 盈利预测和财务指标 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [项ta目ble_FinchinaSimple] \年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 396 | 581 | 813 | 1098 | | 增长率(%) | 44.86 | 46.60 | 40.00 | 35.00 | | EBITDA（百万元） | -202.64 | -151.42 | -58.57 | 86.65 | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | -201.68 | -191.47 | -113.67 | 8.89 | | 增长率(%) | -34.36 | 5.0460.64 | | 107.82 | | EPS(元/股) | -2.52 | -2.39 | -1.42 | 0.11 | | 市盈率（P/E） | - ...

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入|首次覆盖 个股表现 -6% 4% 14% 24% 34% 44% 54% 64% 74% 84% 94% 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 视源股份 电子 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 38.90 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）6.96 / 5.21 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）271 / 203 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 46.66 / 30.16 | | 资产负债率(%) | 42.1% | | 市盈率 | 27.59 | | 第一大股东 | 黄正聪 | 研究所 分析师:陈涵泊 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080001 Email:chenhanbo@cnpsec.com 分析师:王思 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080002 Email:wangsi1@cnpsec.com 视源股份(002841) 教育回暖 AI 放量，发力机器人业务 ⚫ 事件 公司发布半年报，营收企稳，利润受供 ...

证券研究报告：通信 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 增持|首次覆盖 个股表现 -1% 25% 51% 77% 103% 129% 155% 181% 207% 233% 259% 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 数据港 通信 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 35.86 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）7.18 / 7.18 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）258 / 258 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 42.59 / 12.90 | | 资产负债率(%) | 56.2% | | 市盈率 | 163.00 | | 第一大股东 | 上海市北高新(集团)有 | | 限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:陈涵泊 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080001 Email:chenhanbo@cnpsec.com 分析师:王思 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080002 Email:wangsi1@cnpsec.com 数据港(603881) 廊坊项目稳定推进，期待后续新项目 ...

证券研究报告：计算机 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-09-04 股票投资评级 增持|首次覆盖 个股表现 -4% 10% 24% 38% 52% 66% 80% 94% 108% 122% 136% 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 博睿数据 计算机 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 74.29 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）0.44 / 0.44 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）33 / 33 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 82.68 / 33.66 | | 资产负债率(%) | 13.4% | | 市盈率 | -27.93 | | 第一大股东 | 李凯 | 研究所 分析师:陈涵泊 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080001 Email:chenhanbo@cnpsec.com 分析师:王思 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080002 Email:wangsi1@cnpsec.com 新品 ONE 进入放量周期，前瞻推进区块链与大模型 可观测 ⚫ 事件 ...