2025 年 03 月 17 日 投资策略 流动性与仓位周观察——3 月第二期 ◼ 上证综合指数走势（近三年） (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/3/18 24/5/29 24/8/9 24/10/20 24/12/31 25/3/13 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 流动性转强，交投活跃度下降。上周全 A 成交额 8.3 万亿，较前一周 下降，换手率 8.75%，较前一周下降，融资供给端中基金、两融、ETF 净 流入；资金需求端 IPO 规模为 21.75 亿元，再融资规模 134.37 亿元。市 场资金合计净流入 139.83 亿元，流动性转强。 国内流动性：上周公开市场操作净回笼资金 2517 亿元，DR007 上升， R007 同步上升，R007 与 DR007 利差扩大，金融机构间流动性未见明显分 层。利差来看，10 年期国债收益率上升 5bp，1 年期国债收益率上升 4bp， 国 ...

2月金融数据点评—— 实体信贷回落，社融持续修复 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/3/17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1、政府债支撑社融持续修复 2、化债加速推进，M1同比延续回落 3、数据结构分化，宽松政策相机实施 ➢ 中国2月新增社会融资规模22333亿元，市场预期26500亿元，前值70567亿元； ➢ 中国2月新增人民币贷款10100亿元，市场预期12430亿元，前值51300亿元； ➢ 中国2月M2同比7.0%，市场预期7.0%，前值7.0%；M1同比0.1%，前值0.4%。 图表1：金融数据主要分项 | 单位：亿元 | | | | | 当月新增 | | | | | | 同比多增 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 总 | 社融规模 | 2025/2 ...

2025 年 03 月 17 日 行业周报 中性/首次 钢铁 钢铁 太平洋钢铁日报（20250317）煤钢焦产业链数字化持续升级 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 24/3/18 24/5/29 24/8/9 24/10/20 24/12/31 25/3/13 ◼ 子行业评级 | 普钢 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 其他钢铁 | 无评级 | | 特材 | 无评级 | ◼ 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 <<钢铁行业日报（20250314）发改委 持续实施粗钢产量调控>>--2025- 03-15 证券分析师：张庚尧 电话： E-MAIL：zhanggy@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190521010002 报告摘要 市场行情： 2025 年 3 月 17 日，今日钢铁行业相关板块涨跌幅度较小，上证指数 （+0.19%）；深证成指（+0.19%）；创业板指（-0.52%）；科创 50（-0.45%） 沪深 300（+0.24%）。 个股表现： 钢铁行业个股涨幅前三名为：华达新材（+2.02%）；常宝股份（+1.88%）； 贵绳股份（+1.83%） ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1][10] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a significant improvement in domestic sales of non-excavation products in January and February, with a positive outlook for the domestic market's recovery [5][6] - The overall export of non-excavation products continues to rise, suggesting a synchronized recovery in both domestic and international markets [6] - The report emphasizes that the non-excavation sector is expected to enter an upward cycle this year, following the excavator segment [6] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first two months of 2025, the sales of various non-excavation machinery showed mixed results, with notable improvements in some categories: - For cranes, the total sales of truck-mounted cranes were 3,306 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.69%, while sales of automotive cranes decreased by 13.49% [5] - Road machinery sales also saw significant growth, with roller sales increasing by 31.63% and grader sales by 40.37% [5] Export Trends - The export performance for non-excavation machinery in the first two months of 2025 showed a positive trend: - Truck-mounted cranes saw a 4.84% increase in sales, while road machinery like rollers and graders experienced growth rates of 39.76% and 20.59%, respectively [6] - The report anticipates that the external demand environment will improve compared to the previous year, with domestic brands expected to gain market share overseas [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the non-excavation sector is currently at a bottoming phase, with expectations for a recovery cycle this year [6] - The overall performance of the engineering machinery sector is viewed positively, with expectations for strong earnings releases from major manufacturers due to scale effects [6]

2025 年 03 月 17 日 行业周报 看好/维持 基础化工 基础化工 化工新材料周报：关注电子化学品、UHMWPE 纤维 走势比较 (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/3/18 24/5/29 24/8/9 24/10/20 24/12/31 25/3/13 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 <<化工周报（3/3-3/9）： 制冷剂 R22、R32 价格持续上涨，军民两用刺 激 UHMWPE 需求增加>>--2025-03- 10 <<同益中快报点评：产能释放驱动业 绩修复，2024Q4 业绩超预期>>-- 2025-03-06 <<安迪苏 2024 年报点评：蛋氨酸景 气回升，特种产品韧性凸显>>-- 2025-03-06 证券分析师：王亮 E-MAIL：wangl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522120001 证券分析师：王海涛 （2）UHMWPE 纤维：目前，国内在高端超高分子量聚乙烯纤维的制备 技术方面已取得显著进展，但仍需进一步加强研发，以打破国外垄断， 推动军队防护升级；此外，在新兴科技如人形机器人领域的应用前景 值得期待。建议关注：同益中等。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989) [1] Core Views - The Inner Mongolia project is progressing smoothly, and the decline in raw material prices is contributing to profit enhancement [1][10] - The company achieved a revenue of 32,983 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6,338 million yuan, up 12.16% year-on-year [4][5] - The Inner Mongolia project is expected to significantly increase the company's production capacity, positioning it as the leader in China's coal-to-olefins industry with a total capacity of 5.2 million tons per year [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 32,983 million yuan and a net profit of 6,338 million yuan, with respective growth rates of 13.21% and 12.16% [4] - The average profit for coal-based polyethylene in 2024 was 1,967 yuan per ton, an increase of 46.7% compared to 2023 [5] - The company forecasts revenues of 48,601 million yuan, 58,129 million yuan, and 60,075 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11,042 million yuan, 13,619 million yuan, and 14,546 million yuan [7] Production Capacity and Projects - The Inner Mongolia project includes three production lines, each with a capacity of 1 million tons per year, with the first line already operational since November 2024 [4] - The company’s total olefin production capacity will reach 5.2 million tons per year following the completion of the Inner Mongolia project [4] Market Conditions - The report notes a decrease in coal prices, with procurement costs down by 12.96% year-on-year, which has improved the profitability of coal-to-olefins operations [5] - As of March 13, 2025, the average market prices for coking coal and thermal coal were 1,198 yuan per ton and 592 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 35.21% and 21.38% [5]

2025 年 03 月 17 日 行业周报 看好/首次 石油石化 石化周报（3/10-3/17）：海外天然气价格明显增长 ◼ 走势比较 相关研究报告 证券分析师：白竣天 E-MAIL：baijt@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522110001 证券分析师：王亮 E-MAIL：wangl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522120001 报告摘要 1.重点行业和产品情况跟踪 受拉尼娜及欧美天然气消费量增长影响，天然气价格反季节上 涨。2025 年以来欧盟天然气消费量同比增长 38.66%，欧盟天然气库存 同比下降 39.27%，并且 2025 年以来美国天然气表观消费量也同比增 长 18.5%，使得美国和欧洲天然气价格明显增长。本周国内 LNG 出厂 价格指数为 4557 元/吨，比上周下降 3.06%，比去年同期增长 8.68%。 本周 NYMEX 天然气期货价格为 4.09 美元/百万英热单位，比上周下降 1.82%，比去年同期大幅增长 133.26%。 本周国际油价结束下行，小幅上涨 0.28%。今年以来，布伦特油 价均值同比下跌，跌幅为 6.46%。本周数据显示，本周数 ...

2025 年 03 月 17 日 行业周报 看好 首次 消费者服务 消费者服务 国务院《提振消费专项行动方案》消费者服务相关条目解读 ◼ 走势比较 报告摘要 3 月 16 日国务院印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，以下是方案中与消 费者服务行业相关的文件条目，主要涉及到餐饮、旅游、教育等几个细分 领域。 一、餐饮相关政策 （十）促进生活服务消费 ◆ 政策内容： 提升餐饮服务品质，支持地方发展特色餐饮。 结合城市一刻钟便民生活圈建设，加快配齐社区餐饮网点。 ◆ 解读评价： 品质与特色化驱动：政策推动餐饮行业向高端化、差异化发展，支持 地方特色品牌，有助于挖掘文化价值，增强消费者吸引力。 社区消费便利性：完善社区餐饮网点布局，尤其是在 "一刻钟便民 生活圈" 中强化餐饮服务，可提升居民日常消费效率，推动餐饮业下沉 市场发展。 中小微企业扶持：需关注中小餐饮企业的成本压力（如租金、人力）， 建议配套减税降费或补贴政策，助力其转型升级。 二、旅游相关政策 （十一）扩大文体旅游消费 （十二）推动冰雪消费 ◆ 政策内容： 建设冰雪主题景区、度假区，支持冰雪资源富集地区打造全球知名目 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989) [1] Core Views - The Inner Mongolia project is progressing smoothly, and the decline in raw material prices is contributing to profit enhancement [1][10] - The company achieved a revenue of 32,983 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.21%, and a net profit of 6,338 million yuan, up 12.16% year-on-year [4][5] - The Inner Mongolia project is expected to significantly increase the company's olefin production capacity to 5.2 million tons per year, making it the largest in China's coal-to-olefin industry [4][5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Baofeng Energy operates two major production bases in Ningdong and Inner Mongolia, with the latter showing significant cost advantages in raw materials [4] - The first line of the 1 million tons/year olefin production line in Inner Mongolia was put into production in November 2024, with subsequent lines scheduled for trial production in early 2025 [4] Financial Performance - The average profit for coal-based polyethylene in 2024 was 1,967 yuan/ton, an increase of 46.7% compared to 2023 [5] - The report forecasts revenues of 48,601 million yuan, 58,129 million yuan, and 60,075 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11,042 million yuan, 13,619 million yuan, and 14,546 million yuan [7] Market Conditions - The average procurement price of coal decreased by 12.96% year-on-year, leading to an increase in profit margins for the company [5] - As of March 13, 2025, the market prices for coking coal and thermal coal were 1,198 yuan/ton and 592 yuan/ton, respectively, showing significant year-on-year declines [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain growth momentum with the release of capacity from the Inner Mongolia project, with projected EPS of 1.51 yuan, 1.86 yuan, and 1.98 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" with expectations of overall returns exceeding the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [23]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a dual approach of "short-term stimulus + long-term mechanisms" to support the restaurant, tourism, and education sectors, highlighting the importance of quality upgrades, community penetration, high-end and international development, and resource equity in education [21][15]. - The report identifies potential growth opportunities in the consumer services sector driven by government policies aimed at enhancing service quality and expanding market access [21]. Summary by Sections 1. Restaurant Policies - The government aims to enhance the quality of restaurant services and support local specialty dining, which will drive the industry towards high-end and differentiated development [2][3]. - The improvement of community dining options is expected to increase consumer convenience and efficiency, particularly in urban areas [3]. 2. Tourism Policies - Policies are set to expand cultural and tourism consumption by supporting scenic spots and cultural institutions to diversify service offerings and extend operating hours [4][7]. - The focus on winter tourism aims to transition seasonal activities into year-round opportunities, enhancing economic benefits in resource-rich regions [7]. 3. Education Policies - The government plans to increase educational resources in urban areas to accommodate the influx of school-age children, which will alleviate enrollment pressures and enhance consumer spending in related sectors [12][13]. - Financial support measures, such as increased student aid and loan policies, are expected to reduce the financial burden on families and stimulate consumption [15]. 4. New Consumption Models - The promotion of new high-end consumption models, such as low-altitude tourism and cruise services, is anticipated to cater to the needs of higher-income groups and stimulate rural economies through initiatives like the homestay economy [10][11]. 5. Policy Synergies and Industry Opportunities - The report highlights the importance of optimizing the consumption environment and providing financial support to enhance investment in the restaurant and tourism sectors [18][19]. - The potential for population mobility and consumption linkage is noted, with educational resource optimization likely to drive urbanization and related consumer spending [20].