一、AI 与 IDC 的"双向赋能"逻辑 【政策解读】AI 算力增速高于预期，IDC 行业迎来新"风口"—— 2025 年政府工作报告相关解读 ——联合资信工商评级一部|崔濛骁|宁立杰 【摘要】在全球数字化转型加速的背景下，2025 年《政府工作报告》明确提出 "加快数字中国建设，数字经济核心产业增加值占 GDP 比重达到 10%左右"，为人工 智能（AI）与互联网数据中心（IDC）的协同发展注入强心剂。在 2025 年政府工作报 告中，"人工智能+"战略被首次提升至国家产业升级的核心地位，作为 AI 技术的基 础设施，IDC 行业正迎来政策与市场的双重驱动，成为新质生产力的重要载体。AI 算 力增速高于预期，IDC 行业或将迎来新"风口"。 2025 年《政府工作报告》提出"加快数字中国建设"，要求提升数字基础设施智 能化水平；同时，将算力基础设施纳入国家战略布局，提出"推进科技强国建设""深 化国有企业改革"等要求，为 IDC 行业指明发展方向。《政府工作报告》延续"人工 智能+"战略，并首次以独立章节部署，明确提出"持续推进人工智能+，将数字技术 与制造优势、市场优势深度融合，支持大模型广泛应用"，可表 ...

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as the primary task for economic and social development in 2025 [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the government's focus on stimulating consumption and enhancing investment efficiency to promote economic recovery, with specific measures such as a special long-term bond of 300 billion yuan to support the replacement of consumer goods [2][4]. - It identifies the rapid growth of digital consumption as a key driver for the smart terminal industry, with increasing demand for virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and other digital content [3][4]. - The report outlines a clear path for the innovation and development of the digital economy, emphasizing the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with manufacturing and market advantages to drive industry upgrades [5][6]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Consumption Boosting Actions - The report states that the government will implement special actions to stimulate consumption, including a 300 billion yuan initiative to support the replacement of consumer goods [2]. - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 48,789.5 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 3.5% year-on-year [2]. - The introduction of old-for-new replacement policies for smart terminals is expected to lower consumer costs and tap into potential consumer groups [2][4]. Section 2: Technological Innovation Driving Industry Upgrade - The report emphasizes the need for continuous promotion of the "AI+" initiative, encouraging enterprises to increase R&D investment and accelerate technological innovation [5][6]. - China accounted for over 61.1% of global AI patents, indicating its leading position in AI technology development [6]. - The smart terminal industry is expected to benefit from advancements in AI, particularly in sectors like smart connected vehicles and smartphones, with significant sales growth projected [7][8]. Section 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the promising outlook for the smart terminal industry, challenges such as reliance on imported core technologies remain [8]. - The report suggests that the industry must adapt to market changes, enhance R&D efforts, and optimize supply chains to maintain stable growth [9]. - With ongoing policy support and technological breakthroughs, the smart terminal industry is anticipated to enter a new development cycle by 2025 [9].

【政策解读】激发数字经济创新活力，推动智能终端产业再迎新周期—2025 年政府 工作报告解读——联合资信 工商评级一部|候珍珍 【摘要】为推动经济持续稳健回升，确保"十四五"规划的目标任务高质量完成， 《2025 年政府工作报告》（以下简称"《报告》"）中将"大力提振消费、提高投资效 益，全方位扩大国内需求"作为 2025 年经济社会发展首要任务，旨在有效促进消费 市场的繁荣与升级。与此同时，《报告》将"激发数字经济创新活力"作为培育新质 生产力的重要方向，着重指出要"持续推进'人工智能+'行动，大力发展智能网联 新能源汽车、人工智能手机和电脑、智能机器人等新一代智能终端以及智能制造装备"， 为数字经济的创新发展指出了清晰的路径。在全球数字化浪潮的推动下，人工智能技 术加速发展，将拉动智能终端消费需求并推动智能终端产业升级。 一、实施提振消费专项行动，激发智能终端潜在市场需求 为推动经济持续稳健回升，确保"十四五"规划的目标任务高质量完成，《报告》 中将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求"作为 2025 年经济社会 发展首要任务。同时《报告》提出要"安排超长期特别国债 3000 亿元支持消费品以 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the financing leasing industry, reflecting a contraction in the sector since 2022 [3][12]. Core Insights - The financing leasing industry has been experiencing a decline in both the number of companies and business scale, attributed to stricter regulations and macroeconomic pressures [3][12]. - As of June 2024, the total number of financing leasing companies in China decreased to 8,671, a reduction of 180 companies compared to the end of 2023, primarily affecting foreign-funded leasing companies [3][4]. - The total balance of financing leasing contracts was approximately 56,060 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.60% from the end of 2023 [3][4]. - The average issuance interest rate for bonds by financing leasing companies in 2024 was 2.37%, down from 3.06% in 2023, indicating a significant reduction in financing costs [7][14]. - Regulatory policies are expected to unify, with an emphasis on supporting the real economy and promoting green financing initiatives [10][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview and Regulatory Policies - The financing leasing industry has faced a contraction since 2022, with a notable decrease in the number of companies and business scale due to regulatory tightening and economic challenges [3][12]. - The regulatory environment has shifted, with the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission taking over the responsibilities for the operation and regulation of financing leasing companies [5][9]. Future Development - The financing leasing industry is anticipated to continue its slow growth into 2025, with increasing differentiation among companies and ongoing pressures for business transformation [12][14]. - There is a focus on enhancing service capabilities to the real economy, particularly in green financing, as regulatory bodies encourage financing leasing companies to innovate in this area [10][14].

联合资信 工商评级一部 冯磊 从跨国比较来看我国房地产市场容量 自 2022 年以来，我国房地产市场一直处于下行期。尽管自 2024 年四季 度以来，一线和强二线城市市场出现了不少积极的企稳迹象，但三四线城市 交易量仍未明显回升。 接下来的市场走势如何判断？要准确判断拐点是非常困难的事情，但我 们可以研究部分发达国家的房地产市场，以此为基础来判断我国房地产市场 的容量和周期内的高点和低谷。 我们选取了美国、日本和德国三个国家的房地产市场作为参照物，并通 过 2008 年金融危机之后的交易套数作为比较的基准。通过比较我们得出结 论，当 2040 年进入成熟期后，我国房地产市场容量可能为 200 多万套，具 体成交量在 100-300 万套之间波动。下行的驱动力主要来自人口数量及结构 的变化、商品房占比的下降、市场结构由新房为主向存量房为主的转变等。 受此影响，房地产企业也需要改变经营和财务战略，以适应新的行业发展。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 房地产行业经过了前几年的大起大落之后，目前好像又走到了分叉点。房企拿地 热情似乎有起色，部分城市房贷利率开始上调。虽然三四线城市成交还没有回升，但 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or companies involved in the "retirement from platform" initiative [3]. Core Insights - The "retirement from platform" initiative is driven by policy changes aimed at decoupling local government financing from city investment companies, mitigating hidden debt risks, and promoting market-oriented transformations [3][4]. - From 2021 to 2023, entities undergoing retirement from platforms have shown improvements in business transformation, with a notable increase in the proportion of non-city investment business revenue [3][13]. - The credit ratings of the retiring platform entities predominantly fall within the AA and AA+ categories, with a significant concentration of these entities at the county level [13][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Overview - The retirement from platform initiative has undergone three main phases, including exits from the CBRC and the Ministry of Finance's city investment platform lists, driven by the need to break financing constraints and seize development opportunities [6][9]. - The initiative is a response to the central government's push to address hidden debt risks and facilitate the market-oriented transformation of city investment companies [6][12]. 2. Characteristics of Retiring Entities - Between August 2023 and February 2025, a total of 749 companies announced their retirement from platforms, with 572 being bond-issuing entities [14]. - The revenue structure of these entities has diversified, with the share of city investment business revenue decreasing from 31.69% in 2021 to 28.23% in 2023, indicating a shift towards more market-oriented operations [14][15]. 3. Regional Distribution - The majority of retiring entities are located in non-key provinces, with significant numbers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, while key provinces like Chongqing have also seen notable retirements [16][19]. 4. Impact on Government-Enterprise Relations - The relationship between retiring entities and local governments is expected to weaken gradually, although actual adjustments will depend on various factors including ownership structures and transformation progress [25][26]. - Despite the nominal separation, the influence of local governments on these entities remains significant in the short term [25][26]. 5. Credit Risk Implications - In the short term, the overall debt risk for retiring entities is manageable, but attention is needed for potential defaults among weaker entities [28][29]. - Long-term debt risks may vary regionally, with entities that successfully transition to market-oriented operations likely to see improved risk profiles [29]. 6. Future Development Directions - Retiring entities must establish modern corporate governance, achieve business transformation, and enhance cash flow independence to thrive post-retirement [30][31]. - The ability to issue new bonds and secure financing will depend on the successful implementation of market-oriented strategies and the reduction of reliance on government support [32].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for financial holding companies, highlighting their increased activity in the bond market and improved credit ratings [1][31]. Core Insights - In 2024, financial holding companies significantly increased their bond issuance, with a total issuance scale of 6,415.90 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.92% [8][31]. - Central enterprise financial holding companies benefited from strong shareholder support and business resources, leading to higher credit ratings and larger issuance scales [1][31]. - Local financial holding companies also saw steady growth in issuance, primarily supported by local government backing, with credit ratings predominantly at AAA and AA+ [1][31]. - The overall bond financing was mainly used for refinancing maturing debts and supplementing liquidity, with a long-term bond structure that keeps short-term repayment pressure manageable [1][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Credit Status of Financial Holding Companies - As of the end of 2024, 76 financial holding companies were analyzed, with 72.37% holding AAA ratings [3][4]. - Five companies experienced credit rating changes, with three upgrades to AAA and one downgrade to AA+ [3][4]. 2. Bond Issuance Analysis - In 2024, 383 bonds were issued by the sample companies, with a total issuance scale of 6,415.90 billion, marking a 55.92% increase year-on-year [8][10]. - Central enterprise financial holding companies accounted for 46.58% of the issuance, while local financial holding companies made up 51.70% [8][10]. - The average issuance size for central, local, and other financial holding companies was 14.84 billion, 7.65 billion, and 6.10 billion, respectively [9][10]. 3. Central Enterprise Financial Holding Companies - Central enterprise financial holding companies issued 111 bonds totaling 1,646.90 billion, a 44.21% increase from the previous year [12][14]. - The bond types primarily included medium-term notes, corporate bonds, and short-term financing [12][14]. 4. Local Financial Holding Companies - Local financial holding companies issued 228 bonds totaling 1,833.00 billion, a 13.02% increase year-on-year [18][21]. - The issuance was diversified, with a significant portion coming from provincial-level companies [18][21]. 5. Other Financial Holding Companies - Other financial holding companies issued bonds totaling 61.00 billion, with a focus on corporate bonds and medium-term notes [23][24]. 6. Spread Analysis - The report indicates that the spread for central enterprise financial holding companies is generally low, with AAA-rated companies having spreads between 30BP and 50BP [25][26]. - Local financial holding companies' spreads align with their credit ratings, although some exhibit higher spreads due to regional economic weaknesses [28][29]. - Other financial holding companies have higher average spreads of 147.70BP, reflecting their weaker credit profiles [30].

联盟党赢得德国大选，未来仍 面临诸多挑战 联合资信 主权部 | 李为峰 2025 年 2 月 23 日，德国举行了第 21 届联邦议院选举。根据出口民调数据，基 督教民主联盟（CDU）和基督教社会联盟（CSU）组成的联盟党以约 29%的支持率处 于领先位置，联盟党总理候选人默茨随后宣布胜选，而极右翼的德国选择党（AfD） 则以约 20%的得票率成为为德国第二大党，德国现任总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨领导的中左 翼社会民主党（SPD）仅获得约 16%的得票。此次选举不仅决定德国国内政治的走向， 也将对欧洲乃至全球的政治格局产生深远影响。 尽管联盟党赢得选举，但未来组阁仍存在诸多变数，甚至可能出现"看守政府" 长期执政的状况 尽管联盟党赢得了选举，但其支持率仅为 29%，必须联合其他政党才能组建政府， 未来组阁仍存在诸多变数，两党或三党联合政府均有可能出现。 目前来看，联盟党与社民党或绿党组成联合政府的可能性较大。然而，无论联盟 党是与社民党还是绿党联合组阁，其合计支持率仍不足 50%，无法组建多数政府。更 为重要的是，社民党与联盟党在去监管、边境与非法移民、削减能源成本等重大议题 上存在较大分歧，绿党则在环保政策上与联盟 ...

（二〇二四年年报） 经济运行稳中有进 增长目标如期实现 主要经济指标情况 | 指标名称 | 2023 | 2024 | 2024 | 2024 | 2024 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | | GDP 当季值(万亿元) | 35.7 | 30.5 | 32.9 | 34.2 | 37.4 | | GDP 当季同比(%) | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.4 | | 工业增加值增速(%) | 4.6 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | | 固定资产投资增速(%) | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.2 | | 房地产投资增速(%) | -9.6 | -9.5 | -10.1 | -10.1 | -10.6 | | 基建投资增速(%) | 5.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | | 制造业投资增速(%) | 6.5 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.2 | | 社零增速(%) | 7.2 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.3 ...