未来改变：韩国人工智能的影 响 韩国 Soo Jung Chang, Hamin Lee, Sumin Lee, Samil Oh（均来自韩国银 行）；Zexi Sun，和Xin Cindy Xu（国际货币基金组织） SIP/2025/013 国际货币基金组织（IMF）选定的议题论文是由IMF工作人员准 备的，作为与成员国定期磋商的背景文件。 它基于完成日期20 25年1月21日可获得的信息。此论文还单独作为国际货币基金 组织国家报告第25/042号出版。 2025 MAR © 2025 国际货币基金组织 SIP/2025/013 国际货币基金组织选定的议题报告 亚太部门 未来转型：人工智能在韩国的影响 作者：Soo Jung Chang, Hamin Lee, Sumin Lee, Samil Oh, Zexi Sun, 和 Xin Cindy Xu* 授权由Rahul Anand分发，2025年3月 国际货币基金组织选定的议题论文 由国际货币基金组织工作人员编制，作为与成员国定期磋商的背景文件 。 该报告基于2025年1月21日完成时的信息。本论文还作为国际货币基金组织国家报告第25/042号独立发 表。 ...

国际货币基金组织国家报告第25/59号 文莱达鲁萨兰国 2025年3月 2025年2月19日 关键问题 近期发展、展望与风险 . 文莱经济保持强劲，其韧性通过充裕的缓冲和持续审慎的宏 观经济政策得到增强。前景稳定。与2024年第四条款磋商一样，风险保持平衡；全球 政 策不确定性通过稳健的商品价格等手段得到缓解。 . 独立提案将文莱达鲁萨兰从当前的12个月周期调 整到24个月的第四条文章磋商周期 本文关于文莱达鲁萨兰的内容是由国际货币基金组织的一个工作人员团队准备的，作 为与文莱达鲁萨兰定期磋商的背景文件，以将其纳入24个月的第四条条款磋商周期。 它基于截至2025年2月19日完成时的可用信息。 本报告副本对公众开放获取。 国际货币基金组织 • 出版服务部 PO Box 92780 • 华 盛顿哥伦比亚特区 20090 电话：(202) 623-7430 • 传 真：(202) 623-7201 电子邮件： publications@imf.or g 网页： http://www.imf.org 国际货币基金组织 华盛顿特 区 © 2025 国际货币基金组织 文莱达鲁萨兰国 独立提案将文莱达鲁萨兰从当前的12个 ...

国际货币基金组织国家报告第25/50号 所罗门群岛 精选问题 2025年2月 本文关于所罗门群岛的报告由国际货币基金组织的工作人员团队编制，作为与成员国定 期磋商的背景文件。它基于2025年1月29日完成时的可用信息。 此报告的副本可供公众获取 国际货币基金组织 • 出版服务部 邮政编码：92780 • 华盛顿特区 20090 电话： (202) 623-7430 • 传真： ( 202) 623-7201 电子邮件： publications@imf.org 网 络： http://www.imf.org 国际货币基金组织 华盛顿特 区 © 2025 国际货币基金组织 | A. 背景_______________________________________________________________________ | | --- | | _____ 3 | | B. 财政透明度和最佳实践_________________________________________________ 3 | | C. 财政分析的应用 ________________________________________ ...

理解自然灾害对宏观经济的影 响 胡明·阮，艾伦·冯，梅塞德斯·加西亚-埃斯克里巴诺 WP/ 25/46 国际货币基金组织工作论文 描述研究在 作者（们）的进步，并已发表至 引发评论并鼓励辩论。 在IMF工作论文中表达的观点是 作者（们）的，不一定 代表国际货币基金组织（IMF）、其执行董事会的观点 或国际货币基金组织管理层。 2025 二月份 © 2025 国际货币基金组织 WP/25/46 国际货币基金组织工作论文 能力发展研究所 理解自然灾害对宏观经济的影响 由Ha Minh Nguyen、Alan Feng和Mercedes Garcia-Escribano* 编制 经Mercedes Garcia-Escribano授权分发 2025年2月 国际货币基金组织工作论文 描述作者（们）正在进行的研究，并公开发表以征求评论并促进辩论。 国际 货币基金组织（IMF）工作论文中表达的观点为作者（们）的个人观点，并不一定代表IMF、其执行董事 会或IMF管理层的观点。 摘要： 气候变化导致自然灾害更加频繁和破坏性增强。本文的目标有两个。首先，它考察了自然灾害对产出及 其组成部分增长动态的影响。发达经济体（AEs） ...

Core Insights - The rise of fintech has the potential to transform the financial landscape, creating new competitive financial sources for households and businesses beyond geographical limitations [4][16][52] - The report identifies various economic, demographic, technological, and institutional factors that drive the growth and diffusion of fintech across different countries [12][53] Economic Factors - Macroeconomic development plays a crucial role in creating an environment conducive to fintech growth, with higher levels of financial development correlating positively with fintech activity [15][36][53] - Inflation appears to encourage financial innovation through entrepreneurial activity and consumer adoption, although its effect is relatively small [35][53] Demographic Factors - Population growth, urbanization, and a younger demographic structure significantly contribute to the development of fintech [15][39][53] - Countries with a higher elderly dependency ratio tend to experience slower growth in fintech activities [39] Technological Factors - The availability of technological infrastructure, such as mobile phone and broadband internet subscriptions, is positively correlated with the growth of fintech [47][53] - The number of secure internet servers is identified as a critical factor for fintech development, as fintech is highly reliant on information and communication technology [47][53] Institutional and Political Factors - Institutional and political factors, measured by bureaucratic quality and government stability, facilitate fintech growth, although the extent of these effects varies by tool type and country characteristics [48][53] - Policy and structural reforms can promote financial innovation and nurture fintech enterprises, particularly by strengthening technological and institutional infrastructure and reducing cybersecurity threats [16][54] Case Study: Lithuania - Lithuania has emerged as a major hub for fintech companies, with the number of fintech firms increasing from 45 in 2013 to 276 by the end of 2023, showcasing a thriving innovation ecosystem [41][42] - The fintech transaction volume in Lithuania grew from less than 0.01% of GDP in 2015 to over 0.43% in 2020, reflecting a growth rate of 5567% [41] - Key factors for Lithuania's success include a skilled workforce in fintech-related fields, a supportive regulatory environment, and rapid digital transformation among domestic customers [42][43]

一种关于温度冲击的新视 角 Nooman Rebei WP/25/ 42 国际货币基金组织工作报告 描述研究在 作者（们）的进展，并已发表。 引起评论并促进辩论。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）工作报告中表达的观点是 作者（们）的，并不一定代表 代表国际货币基金组织（IMF）、其执行董事会的观点。 或国际货币基金组织管理。 2025 2月 © 2025 国际货币基金组织 WP/25/42 国际货币基金组织工作论文 能力发展研究所 一份由Nooman Rebei撰写的关于温度冲击的 新视角报告 由Mercedes Garcia-Escribano授权分发，2025年2月 国际货币基金组织工作报告 描述作者正在进行中的研究，并发表以征求评论并促进辩论。 国际货币基金 组织工作论文中表达的观点是作者（们）的观点，并不一定代表国际货币基金组织、其执行董事会或国际 货币基金组织管理层的观点。 摘要： 现有研究指出，气候变化对新兴市场和发展中经济体的影响不成比例，与发达国家相比，造成更大的产 量损失，提出较冷地区的影响低于其较暖的对应地区。本研究重新审视了温度波动与实际增长之间的经验关系， 独特地关注区分暂时性温度变化与永久 ...

经济深度一体化带来的效益 20年后，从2004年欧盟扩大以来 罗伯特·贝耶，克莱尔·易莉·李，以及塞巴斯蒂安·韦伯 WP/25/47 国际货币基金组织工作论文 描述在...的研究 作者（们）的进步，并已发表至 引发评论并鼓励辩论。 在IMF工作论文中表达的观点是 作者（们）的，不一定 代表国际货币基金组织（IMF）、其执行董事会的观点 或国际货币基金组织管理层。 2025 FEB © 2025 国际货币基金组织 WP/25/47 国际货币基金组织工作论文 欧洲部 经济深度融合的效益：2004年欧盟扩大20年后，由Robert Beyer、Claire Yi Li和Sebasti an Weber* 编写 由[Helge Berger]授权分发，2025年1月 国际货币基金组织工作论文 描述作者（们）正在进行的研究，并公开发表以征求评论和促进辩论。 国际 货币基金组织（IMF）工作论文中表达的观点是作者（们）的观点，并不一定代表IMF、其执行董事会或IM F管理层的观点。 摘要： 欧盟自上次成员国加入超过十年以来一直停滞不前，这标志着自1973年以来没有扩张的最长时间。这个 过去的时间与成员国身份承诺的潜在收入 ...

| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | JEL Classification Numbers: H32; H40; L50; | L60; L80; O30; O40; O52 | | Keywords: | Total factor productivity; technology; R&D innovation; human capital; Europe | | Author's E-Mail Address: | scevik@imf.org; snaik@imf.org; kprimus@imf.org | The conceptual framework for the analysis presented in this paper is based on the standard model of conditional convergence. T ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the financial sector in Papua New Guinea Core Insights - The financial sector in Papua New Guinea (PNG) is relatively small and bank-dominated, with total financial sector assets around PGK 80 billion, representing 70% of GDP [23] - The Bank of Papua New Guinea (BPNG) has made efforts to strengthen the financial sector stability framework through reforms guided by the Financial Sector Development Strategy 2018-30 [13][33] - Despite progress, significant weaknesses and challenges remain, particularly in systemic risk analysis, regulatory frameworks, and crisis management [14][15] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The BPNG has initiated several reforms to enhance the financial sector stability framework, including macroprudential policy development and modernization of payment systems [13] - Key areas requiring improvement include systemic risk analysis, regulatory frameworks for financial institutions, and crisis preparedness [14][15] Background - The financial sector is dominated by four commercial banks, which account for 67% of total financial system assets, and financial inclusion remains limited, with 75% of the population excluded from formal financial services [23][31] - The BPNG is the main regulatory authority, overseeing banks, nonbank deposit-taking institutions, superannuation funds, and life insurance companies [32] Systemic Risk Analysis - The BPNG has established a Macro-Prudential Supervision Unit responsible for macroprudential risk surveillance and policy advice [37] - Current systemic risk analysis relies heavily on Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs), but broader macro-financial indicators are often overlooked [45] Recommendations - The report outlines key recommendations for improving the financial sector, including operationalizing a Financial Stability Committee, enhancing regulatory frameworks, and developing a comprehensive prudential regulation for e-money providers [15][18] - Specific recommendations include improving systemic risk reporting, amending the Banks and Financial Institutions Act, and strengthening oversight functions of payment systems [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The fragmented public debt management legal framework and functions have led to incoherent management of public debt in Sri Lanka, necessitating the establishment of a consolidated Debt Management Office (DMO) and improved debt transparency as a government priority [18][20][24] - The mission recommends a new Public Debt Management (PDM) law to define the DMO's mandate, governance, and accountability framework, which should include annual reporting to Parliament on debt management strategy progress [20][21][66] - The DMO should be located within the Ministry of Finance (MoF) to align with practices in emerging markets, with a focus on developing a Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) and an Annual Borrowing Plan (ABP) [21][22][25] - Recommendations include strengthening the legal framework for loan guarantees and on-lending arrangements to mitigate fiscal risks, and establishing a coordinating committee for better oversight [27][28] Summary by Sections I. Introduction - The objective of the Debt Management Reform Plan is to assist Sri Lankan authorities in improving debt management and transparency, with commitments under the IMF-supported program and World Bank's Development Policy Operation [32][33] II. Macroeconomic Background - Sri Lanka's public debt reached 128% of GDP at the end of 2022, driven by a large fiscal deficit and economic contraction, with gross borrowing needs at 34.6% of GDP [43][44] - The economic outlook remains challenging, with projected contraction in 2023 and gradual recovery expected by 2026 [43] III. Legal Framework - The current legal framework for public debt management is fragmented, lacking a unified law that clearly defines public debt and the roles of various stakeholders [77][80] - The report emphasizes the need for a coherent legal framework to establish guiding principles for public debt management and clarify governance and accountability [59][62] IV. Institutional Framework - The establishment of the DMO within the MoF is recommended, consolidating various debt management functions while ensuring operational independence through an approved MTDS [21][22][25] - The report suggests structuring the DMO along functional lines to enhance efficiency and accountability [27] V. Debt Transparency - The report highlights the need for improved debt data management and unified reporting to enhance transparency and accountability in public debt management [24][66] - Recommendations include developing a new debt recording system and ensuring all debt-related data is included [28] VI. Management Framework for Government Guarantees and On-Lending - The report calls for a legal and operational framework for managing government guarantees and on-lending to mitigate fiscal risks [28][29] - It emphasizes the importance of establishing quantitative risk limits and introducing guarantee fees as risk mitigation instruments [29]