Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for Indonesia's trade integration efforts, indicating potential GDP gains through structural reforms and trade liberalization, aiming for high-income status by 2045 [5][12]. Core Insights - Indonesia is pursuing greater trade openness to leverage external demand for economic growth, with a focus on reducing non-tariff barriers and implementing structural reforms to enhance trade integration [5][12]. - The analysis indicates that significant GDP gains can be achieved through unilateral actions to reduce non-tariff barriers, complemented by trade agreements with major partners [5][12]. - Structural reforms in human capital and logistics are essential to further enhance trade integration and reduce trade costs, thereby broadening Indonesia's comparative advantages across sectors [5][12]. Summary by Sections A. Key Policies and Structural Factors Affecting Trade - Indonesia's average tariffs on manufactured goods have declined, but non-tariff barriers remain elevated compared to regional peers, indicating room for further reductions [18][19]. - The impact of non-tariff barriers on trade is substantial, with potential GDP increases of 5% from removing major NTBs [19]. B. Model and Scenario Description - A quantitative trade model is used to assess the implications of deeper trade integration, focusing on reducing non-tariff barriers and enhancing logistics and human capital [33][36]. C. Main Results - The ambitious trade integration scenario could boost Indonesia's real GDP by 4.1% in the medium to long term, primarily through lower non-tariff barriers and improved access to intermediate goods [41][42]. - Unilateral reductions in non-tariff barriers can benefit many sectors, leading to overall GDP increases despite some sectoral reallocations [43][46]. D. Exploiting Complementarities between Trade Integration and Other Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are crucial for achieving high-income status, with key areas including logistics, governance, and human capital development [53][54]. - Trade liberalization can support the development of new comparative advantages, particularly in GVC-linked sectors and modern services [53][54].

Golden Vision 2045: Making The Most Out of Public Investment Tsendsuren Batsuuri, Raju Huidrom, and Philippe Wingender SIP/2026/006 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on December 16, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No. 26/011 2026 FEB © 2026 International Monetary Fund SIP/2026/006 RECOMMENDED CITATION: Tsend ...

Distributional Impacts of Inflation Accounting for Behavioral Effects and Real Assets Kardelen Cicek, Julieth Pico Mejía, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Alberto Tumino WP/26/22 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2026 FEB © 2026 International Monetary Fund WP/2 ...

Beyond Binary: A Policy- Intensity Measure of Capital Flow Management Wenjie Li WP/26/21 © 2026 International Monetary Fund WP/26/21 IMF Working Paper Strategy Policy and Review Department Beyond Binary: A Policy-Intensity Measure of Capital Flow Management Prepared by Wenjie Li Authorized for distribution by Michele Ruta February 2026 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - North Africa is positioned as a strategic connector between Europe and sub-Saharan Africa, with opportunities for deeper economic linkages and shared growth [12][14] - Current trade patterns show that 63% of North Africa's exports go to Europe, while only 4% are directed to sub-Saharan Africa, indicating a heavy reliance on European markets [13][30] - The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents a significant opportunity for North Africa to enhance intra-African trade and diversify economic partnerships [13][24] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - North Africa has a unique opportunity to leverage its geographical position to enhance economic linkages with Europe and sub-Saharan Africa, fostering resilience and growth [12][14] - Empirical analysis suggests that deeper regional linkages could increase trade by up to 50%, GDP by about 2%, and FDI by roughly 40% [14] Chapter 1: Introduction - North Africa's economic ties with Europe are historically strong, but there is growing engagement with sub-Saharan Africa, presenting opportunities for enhanced economic connections [17][19] Chapter 2: The State of Economic Linkages - Trade remains heavily focused on Europe, with limited participation in global value chains, primarily centered on raw materials [24][30] - FDI inflows are modest, accounting for less than 1% of global FDI, highlighting untapped potential [24][54] Chapter 3: Unlocking Gains from Stronger Linkages - Gravity models indicate that reducing trade barriers could significantly boost trade and GDP, with complementary reforms amplifying these benefits [14][23] Chapter 4: Energy Sector - North Africa's energy resources are crucial for trilateral economic integration, supporting Europe's clean energy transition and addressing sub-Saharan Africa's energy needs [14][22] Chapter 5: Conclusions and Policy Recommendations - A coordinated reform agenda is necessary to improve logistics, infrastructure, and the business environment to realize the potential of trilateral integration [15][22]

IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department Understanding and Forecasting Inflation in Timor-Leste Prepared by Kohei Asao and Raju Huidrom* Authorized for distribution by Alasdair Scott February 2026 Understanding and Forecasting Inflation in Timor-Leste Kohei Asao and Raju Huidrom WP/26/24 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessaril ...

Banking on Nonbanks Bruno Albuquerque, Eugenio Cerutti, Melih Firat, and Benedikt Kagerer WP/26/23 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2026 FEB IMF Working Paper Banking on Nonbanks* Prepared by Bruno Albuquerque† , Eugenio Cerutti‡ , Melih Firat§ , and Be ...

抓住机遇的 瞬间 加速可再生能源、效率 和电气化的新能源时代 致谢 这份报告是由联合国秘书长办公室的气候行动小组撰写的。 Pl oy Achakulwisut担任了首席作者。 以下联合国（UN）机构和 其它政府间组织提供了输入、数据和审评：国际劳工组织 （国 际劳工组织 —— 莫斯塔法·卡马尔·古耶，马克·哈斯多夫，卡米 拉·佩雷拉·雷戈·梅雷莱斯） 国际货币基金组织 （国际货币基金 组织——FADCP、RESSC和SPRCD部门工作人员） 国际可再 生能源机构 (IRENA — 艾莉丝·艾尔斯、尤特·科勒、诺雷拉·康 斯坦丁斯库、萨伊德·达尔杜尔、弗朗西斯·菲尔德、里卡多·戈里 尼、黛亚拉·哈利拉、罗德里戈·莱梅、朱利安·普赖姆、米拉姆· 雷纳、安克·施耐尔劳） 联合国贸易与发展 联合国贸易和发展 会议 — 查antal Line Carpentier，Claudia Contreras，Hamed El Kadi，Stephania Mageste，Tansug Ok，Amelia U. Santos Paulino 联合国开发计划署 联合国开发计划署——Jennifer Baumwoll、 Cassie ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Cambodia's economy showed strong performance in 2024 with a real GDP growth of 6 percent, but growth is expected to moderate to 4.8 percent in 2025 due to external factors [11] - The General Department of Customs and Excise (GDCE) is focused on modernization to enhance customs revenue collection and support the government's economic reform agenda [12] - The GDCE's Customs Reform and Modernization Strategy (2024-2028) includes six primary objectives aimed at improving efficiency and compliance [12] Summary by Sections I. Introduction - Cambodia's economy is projected to grow at 4.8 percent in 2025, down from 6 percent in 2024, influenced by trade tensions and a border dispute with Thailand [11] - Inflation is expected to rise moderately to about 2.8 percent, while the GDCE aims to strengthen customs administration to safeguard trade competitiveness and revenue mobilization [11] II. FY2026 Priorities and Workplan - Revenue mobilization is a key priority, with the revenue to GDP ratio estimated at 15.9 percent in 2023, decreasing to 14.9 percent in 2024, 2025, and 2026 [15] - The GDCE plans to revise the Customs Law, which has not been updated since 2007, to align with international standards [16] - eCommerce is expanding, but customs procedures need alignment with World Customs Organization standards, requiring technical assistance for a comprehensive framework [17] - As of September 2025, Cambodia has 58 Special Economic Zones (SEZs), with 33 active, and the GDCE is reviewing the regulatory framework for better compliance [19] - Combating commercial fraud and trade-based money laundering (TBML) is a priority, necessitating specialized training for customs officers [20] - The current Post-Clearance Audit (PCA) manual is outdated and requires revision to improve audit consistency [21] - The GDCE is modernizing its IT systems, including the Automated System for Customs Data (ASYCUDA), with no external technical assistance required [22] - Capacity building is needed for Rules of Origin verification due to new Free Trade Agreement frameworks [23] - A mid-term review of the Customs Reform and Modernization Strategy is planned to assess progress and recalibrate priorities [24] III. Development Partner Cooperation - Development partners are crucial in supporting Cambodia's trade and customs modernization, with the ADB leading programs focused on revenue mobilization [29] - JICA is enhancing trade facilitation and human resource development, while the World Bank is evaluating health taxes under excise policy [29][30] - Strong coordination among development partners is emphasized to avoid duplication and maximize impact [30]

TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REPORT REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool Performance Assessment Report AUGUST 2025 Prepared By Michael Hardy, Patrik Berglund, Philippe Rousset, Telita Snyckers, and Graham Whyte Authoring Department Fiscal Affairs Department |1 ©2026 International Monetary Fund The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of the Republic of Armenia (the "TA recipient") in respons ...