然而，霍克斯比强调，尽管新西兰并未面临最严峻的关税冲击——美国最终对新西兰出口商品征收15% 的关税，高于最初提议的10%，但远低于对许多其他贸易伙伴实施的税率——这一政策变动仍对企业和 消费者的决策产生了深远影响。 "虽然15%的关税会对部分出口产业，如乳制品、羊肉和木材行业带来压力，但更大的挑战在于全球经 济增长放缓导致的整体需求下降，"霍克斯比解释道，"这才是我们在制定货币政策时更为关注的核心问 题。" 新华财经北京8月21日电新西兰联储（RBNZ）周四表示，尽管已连续大幅降息以刺激经济，但货币政 策对国内需求的传导效果慢于预期，部分原因在于全球关税政策的不确定性持续打击企业和消费者信 心。 新西兰联储副主席克里斯蒂安·霍克斯比（Christian Hawkesby）在出席议会财政与支出委员会听证会时 指出，近期全球贸易壁垒上升，特别是美国加征关税的举措，对全球需求造成了显著负面影响，进而波 及新西兰这一高度外向型经济体。 "我们观察到，市场对降息的反应比我们此前预期的要缓慢一些，"霍克斯比表示，"这在一定程度上可 归因于美国总统特朗普在4月所谓的'解放日'宣布加征关税，以及此后持续存在的政策不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic recovery amid a complex external environment and domestic challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3%, with key economic indicators such as production, consumption, investment, and trade performing better than expected, largely due to effective monetary policy support [2]. - The PBOC implemented a series of significant monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and adjustments to structural monetary policy tools, totaling ten initiatives aimed at stimulating the economy [2][3]. - The report indicates that the monetary policy's effects are accumulating, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price expectations [3]. Group 2: Structural Optimization - The report highlights four key areas of focus: inclusive finance for small and micro enterprises, financial support for technological innovation, credit structure optimization, and promoting consumption [4]. - Over the years, the PBOC has worked to optimize the credit structure, shifting the focus of new loans from real estate and infrastructure to technology, green initiatives, and inclusive finance, which now account for a significant portion of new loans [5][6]. - The proportion of medium- and long-term loans has increased by nearly 11 percentage points over the past decade, providing stable funding support for high-quality economic development [6]. Group 3: Consumer Spending and Financial Support - The report notes that service consumption currently accounts for less than 50% of per capita consumption expenditure in China, indicating substantial growth potential in this area [7]. - The financial sector is encouraged to enhance the supply of high-quality services to stimulate effective demand and unlock consumption growth potential [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Reserve Bank of India stated that the transmission of monetary policy is occurring, which will support economic growth [1] Group 1 - The current monetary policy transmission is expected to positively impact economic growth in India [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) proposed to cancel the regulation on the freezing of pledged bonds in bond repurchase agreements, which is seen as a significant move to enhance market liquidity and deepen the opening-up of the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Liquidity and Depth - The cancellation of the freezing regulation is expected to release liquidity in the bond market, allowing previously frozen high-liquidity bonds to re-enter the secondary market, thus increasing the available trading volume [2][3]. - Currently, the average daily transaction volume of pledged repos in the interbank market is around 50 to 60 trillion yuan, and releasing just 10% of the frozen bonds could inject an additional 10 trillion yuan into the market, enhancing market activity [3]. Group 2: International Integration - The adjustment aligns China's bond market with international practices, particularly the buyout repo model commonly used overseas, which allows pledged bonds to remain tradable [3][4]. - The move is anticipated to lower operational costs and improve convenience for foreign investors, thereby promoting a higher level of openness in the bond market [3][4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Efficiency - The removal of the freezing requirement provides greater flexibility for the central bank's monetary policy operations, addressing the issue of "no bonds available for purchase" during bond transactions [4]. - This reform is part of a broader strategy to enhance liquidity management, which includes various measures taken by the central bank since May, aiming to create a comprehensive liquidity support system [4].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market, specifically focusing on the trends and expectations for credit bonds and ETFs in the second half of the year [1][4][14]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Dynamics**: The supply of science and technology bonds and credit bond ETFs is expected to increase, leading to a deflationary supply effect that will lower overall interest rates and credit spreads [1][4]. 2. **Interest Rate Expectations**: There is a cautious market sentiment regarding further interest rate cuts, with expectations of only a 10-20 basis point reduction for the year [1][10][13]. 3. **Economic Resilience**: The market has a sufficient estimate of economic resilience, with positive data from May indicating optimism despite limited monetary policy support [6][9]. 4. **Performance of Old vs. New Bonds**: New bonds are outperforming old bonds, with a noticeable compression in the yield spread between them. However, the downward pressure on the new 10-year government bonds is increasing [5][9]. 5. **Risk Appetite**: The current market risk appetite has not significantly increased, with funds primarily flowing between low-risk assets rather than high-risk sectors [7][8]. 6. **Liquidity Issues**: There are concerns about liquidity in the market, with a tight liquidity situation potentially leading to inverted yield curves [15]. 7. **Future Bond Market Trends**: The bond market is expected to see a continued decline in financing rates, with both credit and interest rate bonds benefiting from the anticipated increase in supply [14][19]. Additional Important Insights 1. **ETF Market Expansion**: The rapid expansion of credit bond ETFs and science and technology bond ETFs is creating significant arbitrage opportunities and may lead to volatility risks [4][18]. 2. **Investment Strategies**: Recommendations include focusing on low-priced convertible bonds and considering long-term credit loans or mid-term government bonds for stability [16][26]. 3. **Market Concentration**: The concentration of the science and technology bond index is high, with significant market share held by a few entities, which may lead to increased competition for these bonds [20][21]. 4. **Trends in Convertible Bonds**: The convertible bond market has shown strong anti-drawdown characteristics, with some bonds proposing adjustments that exceed expectations [24][26]. 5. **Solar Short-term Bonds**: The outlook for solar-related short-term convertible bonds has shifted from pessimistic to neutral, with an increase in buyers and a reduction in perceived credit risk [28]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the bond market.

Core Insights - The workshop focused on how Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) impacts the efficiency of monetary policy transmission and inter-bank competition [1][3][30] Group 1: CBDC Characteristics and Impact - CBDC is introduced through commercial banks, offering depositors and borrowers interest-bearing accounts, and is managed by commercial banks, distinguishing it from stablecoins due to its direct liability to the central bank, which eliminates default risk [3][11] - The introduction of CBDC can set a lower limit on deposit interest rates, potentially increasing them and reducing their sensitivity to central bank rates due to market share differentiation among banks [3][25] - CBDC enhances competition by allowing smaller banks to offer greater convenience, thus leveling the playing field against larger banks, which can lead to a convergence in market shares and increased sensitivity of deposit rates to central bank rates [3][30] Group 2: Bank Behavior and Market Dynamics - Smaller banks respond more sensitively to changes in central bank rates, adjusting deposit rates more quickly in rising rate environments, which allows them to compete effectively with larger banks [5][21] - A model presented by Professor Zhu illustrates that larger banks have a competitive advantage in deposit markets due to their convenience, allowing them to set lower deposit rates while still maximizing expected returns [8][21] - The introduction of CBDC allows users to transfer funds easily, addressing the convenience gap faced by smaller banks and imposing a lower bound on the deposit rates set by larger banks [25][26] Group 3: Research and Discussion - The workshop featured discussions on the theoretical design and practical applications of digital currencies, with insights from prominent figures in the field, including Professor Yi Gang, former governor of the People's Bank of China [32] - The event concluded the spring semester's digital finance workshop series at Peking University, highlighting the ongoing academic interest in digital finance and its implications for monetary policy and banking competition [32][35]

Core Insights - The rapid growth of stablecoins and the introduction of regulations such as Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation and the US GENIUS Act have made stablecoins a focal point in the market [2][11] - The impact of stablecoin flows on short-term US Treasury yields is significant, with a net inflow of $3.5 billion leading to a decrease in 3-month Treasury yields by approximately 2-2.5 basis points within 10 days [2][6] - Conversely, outflows have a more pronounced effect, with a $3.5 billion outflow resulting in an increase of about 6-8 basis points in yields [2][6] - The influence of stablecoin flows is primarily concentrated in the short end of the yield curve, particularly affecting 3-month Treasury yields, while having minimal spillover effects on 2-year and 5-year yields [2][6] - Continued rapid expansion of the stablecoin market could significantly depress short-term Treasury yields, potentially disrupting the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy transmission [2][7] Group 1: Stablecoins and Safe Asset Prices - The total asset management scale of dollar stablecoins exceeded $200 billion by March 2025, surpassing the holdings of major foreign investors like China in short-term US securities [4][12] - Stablecoin issuers, particularly Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), support their tokens primarily through US Treasury bills and money market instruments, making them key players in the short-term debt market [4][12] - In 2024, dollar stablecoins purchased nearly $40 billion in US Treasury bills, comparable to the largest government money market funds in the US [4][12] Group 2: Data and Methodology - The research utilized daily frequency data from January 2021 to March 2025, sourced from various platforms including CoinMarketCap and Yahoo Finance [5][16] - The study focused on the 3-month Treasury yield as the primary variable, employing a simple univariate local projection model to analyze the impact of stablecoin flows [5][23] Group 3: Empirical Research on Stablecoin Flows - The empirical results indicate that a total inflow of $3.5 billion in stablecoins correlates with a decrease of approximately 2.5 basis points in the 3-month Treasury yield within 10 days, and up to 5 basis points within 20 days [6][35] - The contributions of different stablecoin issuers to yield changes were analyzed, with USDT accounting for approximately -1.54 basis points (70% of the total impact) and USDC contributing about 19% [6][38] Group 4: Discussion and Policy Implications - The potential for stablecoin market expansion to compress short-term Treasury yields raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's control over short-term interest rates [7][40] - The transparency of reserves is crucial, with USDC's disclosures being more transparent compared to USDT, highlighting the need for standardized reporting to mitigate systemic risks [7][41] - The strong demand for Treasuries from stablecoins may exacerbate the "safe asset scarcity" issue faced by non-bank financial institutions, affecting liquidity premiums [8][40]

Group 1: Stablecoin Market Impact - The total market capitalization of stablecoins exceeded $200 billion by March 2025, surpassing the holdings of major foreign investors like China in short-term U.S. securities[2] - Stablecoins, particularly Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), significantly influence the short-term debt market, purchasing nearly $40 billion in U.S. Treasury securities in 2024[2] - A net inflow of $3.5 billion in stablecoins can lead to a decrease of approximately 2-2.5 basis points in the 3-month Treasury yield within 10 days[1] Group 2: Empirical Findings - The study found that a $3.5 billion inflow of stablecoins correlates with a decline in the 3-month Treasury yield of up to 25 basis points over 30 days[3] - The impact of stablecoin outflows on Treasury yields is more pronounced, with a $3.5 billion outflow resulting in an increase of approximately 6-8 basis points[1] - USDT contributes about -1.54 basis points to the yield impact, accounting for 70% of the total effect, while USDC contributes around 19%[4] Group 3: Policy Implications - The rapid expansion of the stablecoin market may significantly lower short-term Treasury yields, potentially disrupting the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy transmission[5] - Regulatory measures for standardized and transparent reserve reporting are crucial to mitigate systemic risks associated with concentrated Treasury holdings by stablecoins[5] - The strong demand for Treasuries from stablecoins could exacerbate the "safe asset scarcity" issue faced by non-bank financial institutions, affecting liquidity premiums[5]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [2] - From 2020 to 2024, the central bank has reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 1.5, 1.0, 0.5, 0.5, and 1.0 percentage points respectively, indicating a trend towards easing monetary policy [2] - The Chief Economist Forum's chairman highlighted that lowering the reserve requirement ratio can promote domestic demand recovery and accelerate structural adjustments [2] Group 2 - On a macro level, the reduction in the reserve requirement ratio is aimed at releasing more liquidity to meet the funding needs for investment and consumption expansion, as well as restoring confidence [3] - The growth of credit and social financing remains strong, with new credit expected to exceed 21 trillion yuan and social financing to exceed 36 trillion yuan by 2025, indicating a robust demand for liquidity [3] - On a micro level, financial institutions with ample funds can enhance the transmission of monetary policy, support credit allocation to key sectors, and alleviate liquidity pressures faced by private enterprises and local governments [3]