1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Macro and Stock Index - Domestic economic data shows marginal improvement, and six departments including the central bank have issued guidelines to support consumption, with a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market. The international Middle - East situation is short - term eased but still has the risk of recurrence. IC/IM maintains a deep discount. Short - sellers should choose the near - month contract to avoid basis fluctuations in the far - month contract, while long - term investors can focus on basis convergence opportunities. The long - IM and short - IH arbitrage portfolio may still have room, but beware of the callback pressure of small - cap stocks at high levels [2]. Crude Oil - The conflict between Israel and Iran has eased, and the risk premium of crude oil has shrunk significantly. The price has fallen sharply and is seeking support at the 500 - yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract. WTI main contract should focus on the support around $65/barrel [3]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell reiterated "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", but Trump's dissatisfaction has led to concerns about the Fed's policy continuity and independence. The weakening dollar supports gold, while the easing of the Middle - East situation weakens its short - term safe - haven demand. The current gold price is in a shock range, and attention should be paid to the US GDP and PCE data [4][5]. Silver - The internal policy divergence of the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has decreased, suppressing the short - term upward movement of precious metals. The demand growth in key areas of silver is slowing down, but it may have room for a supplementary rise compared with gold. Pay attention to the support at $34.8 - 35.0/ounce [6]. Chemicals - PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term. PVC, PP, and plastics still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term due to weak fundamentals. Soda ash is recommended to be treated with a bottom - shock idea, and glass is recommended to be treated with an interval - shock idea [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Agricultural Products - Corn is in an upward channel but may face short - term callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 2350 yuan/ton. Peanuts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Cotton's upside space is limited. Bean II and soybean meal may test the platform support in the short term. Soybean oil may fluctuate in the short term. Hogs may fluctuate, and eggs may oscillate at a low level [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Metals - Shanghai copper is waiting for new signals. Shanghai aluminum can be operated in the short term by aggressive investors or waited by conservative investors. Alumina shows a weak adjustment trend. Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate in the short term. Lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may oscillate at the bottom [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Black Metals - Stainless steel may fluctuate weakly at a low level. Rebar and hot - rolled coils can be considered to go long lightly at low levels. Iron ore may oscillate in the short term, and coal may also oscillate in the short term [35][36][37][38][39]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Situation**: Domestic economic data improves marginally, and policies support consumption and long - term funds entry. Internationally, the Middle - East situation is unstable [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Different stock index futures have different trading volumes, basis rates, and capital flows. The style differentiation continues [2]. - **Reference Views**: Provide suggestions for short - sellers, long - term investors, and arbitrageurs, and remind of risks [2]. Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between Israel and Iran eases, and the risk premium of crude oil shrinks [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to price fluctuations, and the price is sensitive to external factors. The summer peak season supports the price to some extent [3]. - **Reference Views**: Focus on the support level of WTI [3]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: Powell's statement and Trump's dissatisfaction affect the dollar and gold. The easing of the Middle - East situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Gold price is supported by the weak dollar and interest - rate cut expectations, and shows a short - term bearish signal [4][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on key economic data and the support level of gold [5]. Silver - **Market Price**: The price of spot silver shows a narrow - range shock [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy divergence in the Fed, slowing demand growth in key areas, and geopolitical factors affect silver price [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Silver may have room for a supplementary rise, and pay attention to the support level [6]. Chemicals PTA and Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol in East China are the same, with a decline and a certain basis [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: Middle - East geopolitical easing affects the cost. There are device overhauls and restarts, and the demand is weak [7][8]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval fluctuation [7][8]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC are stable [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate changes, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreases [9]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [9]. PP - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of PP decline [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate rises, demand decreases, and inventory increases [10]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [10][11]. Plastics - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of plastics have different trends [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate decreases slightly, demand has a small change, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, inventory increases, and demand is average [13]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term bottom - shock [13][14]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreases slightly, inventory decreases slightly, and demand is weak [15]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [15]. Rubber - **Market Price**: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by crude oil and trade policies, the supply is loose, and the demand is affected by the trade war [16]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock and focus on downstream开工率 [16][17]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions change [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Futures price rises, port inventory increases, supply increases, and demand has different trends [18]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock and focus on Iranian supply and domestic inventory [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term callback and focus on the support level [20]. Peanuts - **Spot Price**: The prices in different regions are provided [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The expected increase in planting area may put pressure on the price, and the current supply - demand is weak [21]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [21]. Cotton - **Spot Information**: The prices of domestic and foreign cotton are provided [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report is positive, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose, with short - term supply - demand contradictions [22]. - **Reference Views**: Limited upside space [22]. Bean II - **Spot Information**: The import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The Middle - East conflict eases, and the weather affects the market [23]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [23]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [24]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by macro - policies, international factors, and domestic supply - demand [24][25]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [25]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [26]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by international and domestic supply - demand factors [26]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [26]. Hogs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions change [27]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the price, and the price may oscillate [27]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term oscillation, and focus on the slaughter situation [27]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions decline [28]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is still excessive, and demand is weak in the off - season [28]. - **Reference Views**: Low - level oscillation, and focus on farmers' culling willingness [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of electrolytic copper rises, and the import index falls [29]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical and policy factors affect the market, and the copper market is in a complex situation [29]. - **Reference Views**: Wait for new signals [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The price of aluminum rises [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical risks, supply - demand situation, and inventory level affect the price [30]. - **Reference Views**: Different strategies for different types of investors [30]. Alumina - **Spot Information**: The price of alumina falls [31]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is excessive, demand is average, and inventory is high [31]. - **Reference Views**: Weak adjustment [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The price is stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and supply - demand contradictions affect the price [32]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rise [33]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to weak fundamentals and high inventory [33]. - **Reference Views**: Considered as an oversold rebound, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [33]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon fall [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [34]. Polysilicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory is high [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and consider profit - taking for short - sellers [34]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel rises [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weak, supply is high, and demand is weak [35]. - **Reference Views**: Weak shock at a low level [35]. Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of rebar in Shanghai falls [36]. - **Market Analysis**: The market shows a shock trend, with cost and demand factors [36]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [36]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Spot Information**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai is stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is stabilizing, with cost and demand factors [37]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The prices of iron ore indexes and varieties are provided [38]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors, and external factors affect the price [38]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and production resumption [38]. Coal - **Spot Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke change [39]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal and coke [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and policies [39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock index market is in a "weak reality and strong expectation" situation, with a "range - bound" strategy recommended, and attention should be paid to the key support levels of Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 [2]. - For crude oil, high attention should be paid to the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, and the WTI main contract should focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel [3]. - Gold is in a sensitive intersection area of fundamentals and technicals, and without major geopolitical events, it is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with attention on US CPI data from July to August and the Israel - Iran conflict [4][5]. - Silver is in a correction range, with high volatility. Attention should be paid to the weekly support around $35.5 per ounce of the COMEX silver main contract [6]. - PTA may fluctuate in the short - term following the cost side [7]. - Ethylene glycol may have a range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. - PVC has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [10]. - PP has no improvement in fundamentals, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [12]. - Plastic has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [13]. - Soda ash should be treated with a bottom - oscillation mindset in the short - term [15]. - Glass can be treated with a strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. - Rubber's rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the downstream starting rate and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction rhythm and downstream demand recovery [19]. - Corn's main contract is in an upward channel and may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [20]. - Peanut's main contract price is difficult to have a trending market in the short - term and should be treated as a range - bound operation [21]. - Cotton's price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to whether it can fill the previous gap [22]. - For live pigs, attention should be paid to whether the 2509 contract can break through the upper pressure level, and continuous attention should be paid to the slaughter situation [24]. - Eggs may still face pressure after a short - term rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see [25]. - Bean No. 2 may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [26]. - Bean meal may be in a range - bound state in the short - term [27]. - Bean oil may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [28]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold, using the lower neckline of the copper price island as the defense line [29][30]. - For aluminum, aggressive investors can hold moderately, while conservative investors should wait and see [30][31]. - Alumina's 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [32]. - Cast aluminum alloy's 2511 contract may maintain a range - bound operation [33]. - For lithium carbonate, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [35]. - Industrial silicon's 2509 contract is in bottom - level oscillations [36]. - Polysilicon's 2507 contract may be in a weak - oscillation state, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [37]. - Stainless steel is in a low - level wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [38]. - Rebar has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [39]. - Hot - rolled coil has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [41]. - Iron ore's main contract may maintain an oscillation pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction speed and steel mill restart rhythm [42]. - Coking coal and coke's main contracts may oscillate in the near future, and attention should be paid to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [43]. Summary by Category Stock Index - Macro environment: The current situation shows a "weak reality and strong expectation" differentiation, with external disturbances suppressing market risk appetite and domestic economic data showing "weak recovery" characteristics [2]. - Market analysis: The margin trading balance - to - floating market capitalization ratio remains low, with funds flowing to small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - Reference view: Adopt a "range - bound" strategy and pay attention to key support levels [2]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The Israel - Iran conflict is the key factor affecting oil prices, and the price is fluctuating at a high level [3]. - Market analysis: The approaching summer peak season and declining US inventories support price increases, and the risk premium will change with the development of the conflict [3]. - Reference view: Focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel of the WTI main contract [3]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: High - interest rate expectations suppress gold, while the Israel - Iran conflict and potential tariff increases drive up safe - haven demand [4]. - Market analysis: Gold prices have fallen under pressure this week, with the game between bulls and bears intensifying [4][5]. - Reference view: Treat it as high - level oscillations, and pay attention to US CPI data and the Israel - Iran conflict [5]. Silver - Market price: Spot silver has fallen into a correction range [6]. - Market analysis: Hawkish Fed statements and changes in geopolitical risk appetite affect silver, and industrial demand and inventory are also important factors [6]. - Reference view: Pay attention to the support level and be vigilant against price fluctuations [6]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [7]. - Market analysis: The cost side is strong, but the supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and demand is in the off - season [7]. - Reference view: Fluctuate following the cost side in the short - term [7]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows an "internal increase and external decrease" pattern, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. PVC - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the price difference between ethylene and electricity has decreased [10]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased [10]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [10]. PP - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions have increased [11]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has increased [12]. - Reference view: No improvement in fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [12]. Plastic - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions show different trends [13]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand has a mixed performance, and inventory has decreased [13]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [13]. Soda Ash - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [14]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: Supply is relatively stable, inventory has increased, and demand is weak [16]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: Different types of rubber have different prices [17]. - Market analysis: Affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, supply is loose, and demand is affected by trade policies [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream starting rates and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [18]. Methanol - Spot information: Different regions have different spot prices [19]. - Market analysis: Futures prices have increased, port inventory has decreased, supply is at a high level, and demand has recovered unevenly [19]. - Reference view: Oscillate strongly in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and demand [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: There are different purchase prices in different regions [20]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is slightly positive, domestic supply pressure has decreased, and demand is weak [20]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [20]. Peanut - Spot price: Spot prices vary in different regions [21]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel policy affects the market, and the supply - demand situation is weak in the short - term [21]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [21]. Cotton - Spot information: Spot prices are at a certain level [22]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is positive, domestic supply is expected to be loose, and demand is in the off - season [22]. - Reference view: Range - bound and strong operation in the short - term, pay attention to the gap [22]. Live Pigs - Spot market: The average price is stable [23]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is low, and farmers have a strong price - holding sentiment [23][24]. - Reference view: Pay attention to whether the contract can break through the upper pressure level and the slaughter situation [24]. Eggs - Spot market: The average price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and there is a short - term rebound demand [25]. - Reference view: Pressure after a short - term rebound, wait and see [25]. Bean No. 2 - Spot information: There are different import costs for soybeans from different countries [26]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel breakthrough and weather affect the market [26]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [26]. Bean Meal - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [27]. - Market analysis: Macro, international, and domestic supply - demand factors affect the market, with supply pressure and strong demand [27]. - Reference view: Range - bound in the short - term [27]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [28]. - Market analysis: International factors and domestic supply - demand affect the market, and inventory pressure is increasing [28]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [28]. Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of electrolytic copper has decreased, and the import copper ore index has fallen [29]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, and domestic policies affect the market, and the copper market is in a resonance state [29][30]. - Reference view: Hold and use the support line for defense [30]. Aluminum - Spot information: The spot price of aluminum has decreased [30]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, sufficient supply, and off - season demand affect the market [30]. - Reference view: Aggressive investors can hold moderately, conservative investors wait and see [31]. Alumina - Spot information: The average price has decreased [32]. - Market analysis: Supply is excessive, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is high [32]. - Reference view: Weak adjustment trend [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The spot price has decreased [33]. - Market analysis: Cost support and off - season inventory accumulation are contradictory factors [33]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation [33]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have decreased [34]. - Market analysis: Cost, supply, and demand factors affect the market, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [34][35]. - Reference view: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors operate within the range [35]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: Market prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and the price is under pressure [36]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations [36]. Polysilicon - Spot information: Prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent [36]. - Reference view: Weak - oscillation, short - selling on rallies [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The spot price is stable [38]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is changing, and fundamentals are weak with supply pressure and poor demand [38]. - Reference view: Low - level wide - range oscillation, wait and see [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The spot price has increased [39]. - Market analysis: The market is changing from a resistive decline to an oscillation, with low inventory and a low valuation [39]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [39]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The spot price has increased [40][41]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is stabilizing, with low inventory and a low valuation [41]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: Indexes and prices are at a certain level [42]. - Market analysis: Supply is affected by hurricanes and domestic production reduction, demand is weak, and inventory and policies affect the price [42]. - Reference view: Oscillation pattern in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and steel mill restart [42]. Coal - Spot information: Spot prices have decreased [43]. - Market analysis: For coking coal, supply has decreased, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure; for coke, supply and demand are both weak [43]. - Reference view: Oscillation in the near future, pay attention to inventory and policies [43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices rose slightly, with the futures main contract C2509 closing at 2,409 yuan/ton. Corn option trading volume was 65,969 lots, and the open interest was 237,557 lots. The option weighted implied volatility was 11.37%, and the 30 - day historical volatility was 8.70%. The option implied volatility decreased slightly [3]. - Soybean meal futures prices fluctuated sideways, with the futures main contract M2509 closing at 3,067 yuan/ton. Soybean meal option trading volume was 146,156 lots, and the open interest was 716,310 lots. The option weighted implied volatility was 17.04%, and the 30 - day historical volatility was 10.20%. The option implied volatility declined slightly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data Statistics - For the C2509 corn contract, the closing price was 2,409 yuan, up 4 yuan with a 0.17% increase. The trading volume was 372,688 lots, a decrease of 5,818 lots, and the open interest was 959,322 lots, an increase of 64,845 lots [5]. - For the M2509 soybean meal contract, the closing price was 3,067 yuan, down 10 yuan with a - 0.32% decrease. The trading volume was 913,041 lots, a decrease of 27,002 lots, and the open interest was 2,339,532 lots, an increase of 15,790 lots [5]. 3.2 Option Market Data Statistics - For corn options, the trading volume was 65,969 lots, a decrease of 3,539 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.694, a decrease of 0.311. The open interest was 237,557 lots, an increase of 16,175 lots, and the open interest PCR was 0.692, an increase of 0.013 [9]. - For soybean meal options, the trading volume was 146,156 lots, an increase of 50,272 lots. The trading volume PCR was 1.105, an increase of 0.226. The open interest was 716,310 lots, an increase of 21,835 lots, and the open interest PCR was 0.787, an increase of 0.006 [9]. 3.3 Option Volatility Situation - For corn options, the option weighted implied volatility was 11.37%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points with a - 1.09% change rate. The 30 - day historical volatility was 8.70%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.15 [18]. - For soybean meal options, the option weighted implied volatility was 17.04%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points with a - 2.91% change rate. The 30 - day historical volatility was 10.20%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.00 [18].

Group 1: Macro and Stock Index - The Lujiazui Forum released eight major financial policies, including the establishment of a bank - to - bank market transaction reporting library and a digital RMB international operation center. Policies such as optimizing the functions of free trade accounts and developing free - trade offshore bonds are beneficial to cross - border capital flows and foreign - trade enterprise financing, injecting liquidity expectations into the market [2]. - The Shanghai Composite 50 index fell 0.15%, the CSI 300 rose 0.12%, the CSI 500 fell 0.09%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.53%. The 1 - year implied volatility of the CSI 1000 index option was 21.2%, higher than that of the CSI 300 (15.6%), indicating a higher expected volatility for small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - The futures discount rates of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were 0.3% and 0.5% respectively, reflecting short - term selling pressure. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the resonance between technical repair and policy benefits [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil - The conflict between Iran and Israel is a key factor affecting oil prices. Market sentiment is cautious, and oil price volatility has increased significantly. The summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US inventories have declined for four consecutive weeks, supporting price increases [3]. - If the Middle East situation, especially Iran's counter - attack against Israel, continues to escalate, oil prices are likely to rise. Multiple institutions predict that if the conflict expands, oil prices may return to the high - price range. If the conflict eases, the risk premium of crude oil will quickly decline [3]. - The WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3]. Group 3: Gold - Israel's expanded military strikes on Iran and the threat of enhanced sanctions by the Trump administration have increased the risk of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a continuous increase in the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset. Trump's claim to impose new tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry has also intensified concerns about global trade frictions [4]. - The world's largest gold ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) has seen inflows for three consecutive days. Gold prices have been consolidating for two consecutive days, trading below $3400 per ounce in the Asian session. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision and policy guidance [4][5]. - In the short term, gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks, central - bank gold purchases, and expectations of interest - rate cuts, but volatility will increase. If the Fed sends a dovish signal or shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted, gold prices may break through $3400. If the geopolitical situation eases or the Fed delays interest - rate cuts, gold prices may回调 to $3350 [5]. Group 4: Silver - On June 18, 2025, during the Asian session, the spot silver price reached a high of $37.313 per ounce, the highest since 2012, and maintained a high - level volatile pattern [6]. - The continuous escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, the strengthening of the US military deployment in the Middle East, and Trump's threat to impose new tariffs have increased geopolitical risks, driving up the price of silver. The short - term profit - taking of funds has not changed the net increase in holdings throughout the year [6]. - Silver has broken through the resistance around $37 under the resonance of its financial and industrial attributes. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of the Fed's FOMC interest - rate decision on silver prices [6]. Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China was 5205 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 185 yuan/ton, and the basis was 309 yuan/ton. The rise in crude oil prices supported PTA prices, but the upside was limited [7]. - In June, PTA plant maintenance and restart were concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%, a month - on - month increase of 4.25%. The inventory days were 4.03 days, basically the same as the previous period. Polyester factory and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom loads decreased, and the textile market was in a off - season [7]. - In the short term, PTA prices may fluctuate following the cost side [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China was 4547 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 77 yuan/ton, and the basis was 76 yuan/ton. Affected by geopolitical factors, some Middle - East plants stopped production, but the overall operating rate increased [8]. - The inventory in East China's main ports decreased, and the demand from polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms declined, with a decrease in terminal order days [8]. - In the short term, ethylene glycol prices may show a narrow - range bullish fluctuation [8]. PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China was 4790 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton. The supply side decreased slightly, and the demand from domestic downstream enterprises did not improve significantly, with mainly rigid - demand transactions [9]. - As of June 12, PVC social inventory decreased, but the fundamentals did not improve significantly, and the futures price was oscillating at a low level [9]. - The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [9]. PP - The mainstream prices of PP拉丝 in North, East, and South China increased slightly. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene increased, and domestic production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [10]. - The average operating rate of downstream industries decreased, and the port inventory decreased. The futures price rebounded due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals were weak [10]. - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in market sentiment [10][11]. Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North, East, and South China increased. The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises increased, while the operating rate of downstream products decreased [12]. - The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises decreased. The futures price rebounded due to the increase in crude - oil prices, but the fundamentals were weak [12]. - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in market sentiment [12]. Soda Ash - The mainstream prices of heavy soda ash in different regions remained unchanged. The overall operating rate of soda ash increased, and production increased significantly [14]. - The manufacturer's inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The demand was average, and the market lacked new driving forces [14]. - The futures market of soda ash is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]. Glass - The market prices of 5mm large - size glass in different regions remained unchanged. The operating rate of float glass increased slightly, and the weekly output decreased slightly [15]. - The manufacturer's inventory decreased slightly, but the pressure during the rainy season cannot be ignored. The demand remained weak [15]. - The glass futures market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15]. Rubber - The spot prices of different types of rubber and raw - material prices in He'ai were provided. Rubber prices rebounded due to market sentiment, but the increase was restricted by the repeated trade - war situation and the oversupply situation [17]. - The domestic and Southeast - Asian rubber - producing areas have entered the harvest season, with a loose supply situation. The operating rates of downstream tire enterprises increased [17]. - Attention should be paid to the operating conditions of the downstream rubber industry, and rubber prices are expected to rebound due to market resonance [17]. Methanol - The domestic spot price of methanol increased. The futures price of the main contract increased, and the port inventory increased. The domestic operating rate of the methanol industry decreased slightly, and Iranian methanol plants stopped production due to geopolitical conflicts [18][19]. - The operating rates of MTO and MTBE devices increased, while the demand from traditional downstream industries remained weak [19]. - In the short term, the futures price of methanol may maintain a slightly bullish oscillation. Attention should be paid to changes in port inventory and the recovery of Iranian plants [19]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in Northeast China and North China were provided. The USDA's June supply - and - demand report was slightly bullish, but the support was limited [20]. - The domestic corn market is in a transitional period between old and new grains, with a potential shortage of supply. Downstream demand is weak, but the substitution effect of wheat has decreased, which is beneficial to corn prices [20]. - The main corn futures contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the upper resistance level [20]. Peanut - The spot prices of peanuts in different regions were provided. The increase in the bio - fuel standard in the United States has supported the peanut - futures market, but there is no continuous upward momentum for peanut prices [21]. - It is estimated that the domestic peanut - planting area will increase in 2025. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with a situation of weak supply and demand. Low inventory may drive up prices [21]. - In the short term, the main peanut - futures contract is unlikely to have a trending market and is expected to oscillate within a range [21]. Cotton - The spot price index of Chinese cotton and the arrival price of Xinjiang cotton were provided. The improvement in Sino - US economic and trade relations and the USDA's supply - and - demand report have had a bullish impact on cotton prices [22]. - The expected increase in cotton production in the new year may lead to a loose supply situation. Currently, cotton imports are low, and commercial inventory is lower than in previous years. The textile market is in an off - season, with insufficient new orders and increasing inventory pressure [22][23]. - Cotton prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the previous gap can be filled [23]. Pig - The average price of ternary hybrid pigs in major production and sales areas increased. The supply of pigs in the market is sufficient, while the demand for pork is low. The short - term price increase is due to the adjustment of the supply side by farmers, and the increase is limited [24]. - Attention should be paid to whether the 2509 pig - futures contract can break through the upper resistance level of 14000, and continuous attention should be paid to the slaughter situation of pigs [24]. Egg - The egg prices in the main production areas increased. The supply pressure has been relieved due to the continuous elimination of old hens, but the demand is still weak due to the difficulty of egg storage in hot and humid weather [25]. - After a short - term rebound, egg prices are still under pressure. The continuous elimination of old hens will support the market to some extent. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [25]. Soybean No. 2 - The import costs of US and Brazilian soybeans were provided. The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans, and weather factors will have a greater impact on the market during the critical growth period of US soybeans [26]. - Soybean No. 2 is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [26]. Soybean Meal - The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions were provided. The repeated US tariff policy and global geopolitical turmoil have affected the market. Tariff policies and weather are the main driving factors for prices [27]. - The operating rate and crushing volume of domestic oil mills are at a high level, with a large supply of soybean meal. Downstream demand is strong, and the inventory accumulation of soybean meal is slow [27]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [27]. Soybean Oil - The spot prices of soybean oil in different regions were provided. The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to a rebound in the external market, driving up domestic soybean - oil prices. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas during the critical growth period [29]. - The operating rate and crushing volume of domestic oil mills have returned to a high level, with an expected increase in the supply of soybean meal. The catering industry is in an off - season, and the inventory - accumulation pressure of soybean oil has increased [29]. - Soybean oil is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [29]. Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the import - copper ore index decreased. The continued conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East and the complex situation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts have affected market sentiment [30]. - Domestic support policies have boosted market confidence. The raw - material supply of copper is still disturbed, and domestic copper inventory is decreasing. The game between reality and expectation, as well as between the domestic and foreign markets, has intensified [30]. - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and a defensive strategy is recommended for the time being [30]. Shanghai Aluminum - The Shanghai spot price of aluminum increased. The Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable, with sufficient supply [31]. - The traditional off - season effect is significant, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. However, the decline in inventory and the rebound of alumina prices have supported aluminum prices [31]. - Aggressive investors can try to go long with a light position, while conservative investors should wait and see [31]. Alumina - The national average price of alumina decreased. The supply side has increased production capacity, with a serious oversupply situation. The demand from electrolytic - aluminum enterprises is mainly rigid, and there is no arbitrage space for imports and exports [32]. - The port inventory of bauxite has increased, and the cost center of alumina has moved down. The alumina 2509 contract is showing a weak adjustment trend [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The national and East - China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy increased. The tight supply of scrap aluminum has provided cost support, but the industry is facing the pressure of oversupply due to continuous capacity expansion [33]. - The new - energy vehicle industry is performing well, but it will enter the off - season in the second half of the year. The inventory of aluminum alloy is relatively high, and the current inventory - accumulation trend will continue [33]. - The cast - aluminum - alloy 2511 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [33]. Lithium Carbonate - The market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventory has decreased significantly. The supply side is still operating at a high level, but demand is weak, except for the resilience of power - battery demand [34]. - The current fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and lithium prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term. Conservative investors are recommended to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [34]. Industrial Silicon - The market prices of different types of industrial silicon remained unchanged. The supply side has continued to resume production, with an increase in output. The demand side maintains on - demand procurement, and the inventory is showing a slight downward trend [35]. - The industrial - silicon 2509 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35]. Polysilicon - The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The supply side has increased production due to the resumption of production in Sichuan and the expectation of new production capacity. The demand side is weak, with a significant decline in the demand from the photovoltaic industry [36][37]. - The polysilicon 2507 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to go short when the price is high [37]. Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The spot price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils remained unchanged. Technically, the downward trend may turn into a low - level oscillation, and the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cost support has weakened, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak, with poor inventory reduction [38]. - Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [38]. Rebar - The spot price of rebar increased. The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. The macro sentiment has improved, raw materials in the industrial chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. The demand is in the off - season, inventory is low, and the valuation is relatively low [39]. - It is recommended to take a light - position, low - buying, and slightly bullish approach in the short term [39]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coils increased. Technically, the downward trend is gradually turning to stabilization. Fundamentally, external talks have progressed smoothly, raw materials in the industrial chain have stabilized, the cost center is dynamically operating, apparent demand has rebounded, inventory is low, and the valuation is relatively low [40]. - It is recommended to take a light - position, low - buying, and slightly bullish approach [40]. Iron Ore - The spot prices of iron ore were provided. The supply side has maintained a high level of shipments, and the demand side has a high production enthusiasm of steel mills, with an increase in molten - iron output. The port

Group 1: Macroeconomics and Stock Index - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is rising, and the weakening dollar is beneficial to the risk appetite of emerging markets. The domestic economy shows a "stable and progressive" trend, with the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth significantly increasing, investment in science - and - technology manufacturing accelerating, and the export structure tilting towards the mid - to - high - end market. The monetary policy remains flexible and appropriate, and ample liquidity supports the market. Attention should be paid to the policy signals of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th, and the Middle - East situation may cause increased volatility. Neutral strategies are recommended for IH and IF, such as holding short out - of - the - money options or lightly long positions. For IC and IM, inter - period spread arbitrage can be arranged, or long forward contracts can be bought at low prices to hedge against fluctuations [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The development of the Israel - Iran conflict is a key factor affecting oil prices recently. The market is starting to wait and see, and volatility has increased significantly. Fundamentally, the peak summer season for crude oil is coming, and U.S. inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks, which supports the rise in oil prices to some extent. However, in the medium term, the Middle - East situation, especially Iran's counter - attack against Israel's attack, needs to be closely monitored. If the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, oil prices are likely to rise. Many institutions predict that if the regional conflict further expands, oil prices may return to the high - price range. If the driving factor fades or the conflict de - escalates, the risk premium of crude oil will also decline rapidly. The WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Iran has released signals to ease the Israel - Iran conflict, but the fire incident of three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has intensified the tension, and the safe - haven demand has pushed up the price of gold. Trump announced the suspension of sanctions against Russia at the G7 summit, which led to a partial decline in the gold price, but geopolitical uncertainties still exist. As of the early Asian session on June 17th, spot gold was trading around $3380 - $3400 per ounce, rising slightly during the day and touching the $3400 mark. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around $3385 and the resistance around $3450. The Middle - East risk premium (short - term) and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation (medium - term) support the price, but profit - taking behavior restrains the increase. In the short - term strategy, the development of the Israel - Iran conflict is the core driving factor. If the situation deteriorates, the gold price may break through around $3450; if there is a diplomatic breakthrough, it may fall to the support area of $3250 - $3300. The differences in trade at the G7 summit should also be synchronously monitored. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the global economy, the intensification of trade frictions, and the rising inflation expectation may provide structural support for gold [4] Group 4: Silver - As of the Asian session on June 17th, the international silver price was trading in a narrow range between $36.1 - $36.5 per ounce, and the increase in the warehouse receipt volume indicates intensified long - short competition. Iran is seeking to mediate the Israel - Iran conflict through Oman and Qatar, but Israel claims to have "controlled the airspace over Tehran", and Iran warns of an "unprecedented" attack. The risk of conflict escalation supports safe - haven assets. The tariff differences between the U.S. and Europe remain unresolved (the EU may accept a unified tariff of 10%), but the market focus has shifted to the Middle - East situation. If the U.S. intervenes, it may further push up precious metals. The gold - silver ratio is still at a historical high, and the industrial demand for silver and the logic of a supplementary rise attract funds. The positions of Shanghai silver have increased in the past five days, highlighting the bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the key support at $36 per ounce. Currently, it is still in a volatile market. If the Middle - East situation eases, the safe - haven demand may weaken, and if the Fed's interest - rate cut pace fails to meet expectations, it may suppress the upward space of the silver price [5] Group 5: Chemical Industry PTA - The spot price in East China is 5020 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan per ton and a basis of 270 yuan per ton. The Middle - East geopolitical factors led to a relatively strong trend in the cost - end crude - oil price last week, which supports the PTA price, but the upward space is limited. In June, PTA plants are undergoing both maintenance and restart, with the overall operating rate maintained at 83.25%, a month - on - month increase of 4.25%. The available inventory days are 4.03 days, basically the same as the previous period but still at a historical low, showing a continuous de - stocking trend. The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load is 61.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The textile market is in the off - season, with weak orders and a lack of positive stimuli, and inventory pressure is gradually emerging. In general, the cost - end crude - oil fluctuations provide short - term support, but the supply - demand contradiction of PTA itself still dominates the price trend. In the short term, it may fluctuate following the cost end [6] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is reported at 4470 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 33 yuan per ton and a basis of 70 yuan per ton. Affected by geopolitical factors, some Middle - East plants have shut down, but the overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 55.07%, a month - on - month increase of 2.71%, and the coal - based operating rate is 55.28%, a month - on - month increase of 3.95%. The weekly output is 33.71 tons, an increase of 1.82 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports of East China is 56.38 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.42 tons. The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load is 61.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%, and the terminal order days are 9.91 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 days. Currently, the ethylene - glycol market focuses on geopolitical factors and cost - end price changes in the short term, and needs to track tariff policies and the recovery of downstream demand in the medium term. In the short term, it may fluctuate slightly to the upside [7] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4750 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5050 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan per ton; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 300 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, last week it was 79.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.47% and a year - on - year increase of 3.23%. Among them, the calcium - carbide method was 81.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 6.32%, and the ethylene method was 72.59%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. In terms of demand, there is no obvious improvement in domestic downstream product enterprises, and transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 12th, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 2.59% month - on - month to 57.36 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.83%. Among them, the inventory in East China was 52.20 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.25%; the inventory in South China was 5.16 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.69%. Affected by market sentiment, the futures price rebounded slightly on June 17th, but the fundamentals of PVC have not improved significantly, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [8] PP - In the spot market, the mainstream price of PP raffia in North China is 7161 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 29 yuan per ton; in East China, it is 7195 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 44 yuan per ton; in South China, it is 7308 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 24 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, last week the average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 78.64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%; the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 77.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45%. The domestic polypropylene output was 77.56 tons, an increase of 1.79 tons compared with last week's 75.77 tons, a rise of 2.36%; compared with the 65.54 tons in the same period last year, it increased by 12.02 tons, a rise of 18.34%. In terms of demand, the average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 49.97%. In terms of inventory, as of June 11, 2025, the port sample inventory of Chinese polypropylene decreased by 0.18 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.71%, and inventory was successfully reduced last week. On June 17th, the futures price rebounded slightly, mainly due to market sentiment. The fundamentals are weak, there is no obvious driving force, and the futures price may oscillate. Be vigilant against the risk of sentiment decline [9][10] Plastic - In the spot market, the mainstream price in North China is 7386 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan per ton; in East China, it is 7560 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan per ton; in South China, it is 7721 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 27 yuan per ton. From the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 79.17%, an increase of 1.76 percentage points compared with the previous period. From the demand side, the average operating rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.49% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 0.53% compared with the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.45% compared with the previous period. In terms of inventory, as of June 11, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 50.87 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%, and the inventory trend changed from increasing to decreasing. Driven by the increase in the cost - end price of crude oil, the futures price rebounded on June 17th. Currently, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, the futures price may oscillate, and be vigilant against the risk of sentiment decline [11] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1214 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in East China is 1350 yuan per ton, in North China is 1400 yuan per ton, and in Central China is 1350 yuan per ton, all remaining unchanged month - on - month. In terms of supply, last week the overall operating rate of soda ash was 84.9%, a month - on - month increase of 4.14%. The soda - ash output was 74.49 tons, an increase of 4.08 tons compared with the previous period, a rise of 5.79%. Recently, equipment operation has been relatively stable, and there are few maintenance enterprises. In terms of inventory, last week the factory inventory was 168.63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.93 tons, a rise of 3.64%. It is understood that the social inventory decreased by nearly 2 tons, with a total of more than 32 tons. The demand side shows average performance. Mid - and downstream enterprises replenish their inventories for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. Overall, the market lacks new driving forces, and it is expected that the futures market will continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term. Continuously pay attention to equipment maintenance dynamics and unexpected events [12] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1117 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions. The market price of 5mm large - size glass in East China is 1230 yuan per ton, in North China is 1130 yuan per ton, and in Central China is 1070 yuan per ton, all remaining unchanged month - on - month. In terms of supply, last week the operating rate of float glass was 75.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%. The weekly glass output was 109.12 tons, a decrease of 0.67 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of 0.61%. Recently, the supply level has not fluctuated much, but there are still plans to ignite production lines from June to July. Pay attention to production - line changes. In terms of inventory, last week the factory inventory of float glass was 6968.5 ten - thousand weight - boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 6.9 ten - thousand weight - boxes, a decline of 0.1%. With the coming of the rainy season, the enterprise inventory pressure cannot be ignored. The demand side remains weak and has not improved significantly. In the short term, it is difficult for the glass demand to improve substantially, and it is expected that the futures market will oscillate weakly in the short term. Continuously pay attention to changes in enterprise inventory, production - line changes, and market sentiment [13][14] Rubber - The spot price of rubber: domestic full - latex is 13900 yuan per ton, Thai smoked three - piece is 19500 yuan per ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 15000 yuan per ton, and No. 20 rubber is 13650 yuan per ton. The raw - material price in Hat Yai: smoked sheets are 66.87 Thai baht per kilogram, latex is 56.95 Thai baht per kilogram, cup lump is 47.2 Thai baht per kilogram, and raw rubber is 64 Thai baht per kilogram. Rubber is mainly driven by market sentiment to rebound, but the repeated situation of the U.S. resuming trade - war tariffs and the supply - exceeding - demand fundamentals restrict the rebound height of rubber. Pay close attention to the recent strength of the crude - oil chemical sector. Fundamentally, domestic full - latex has started production, the Yunnan production area has fully started production, and the supply of Hainan latex has begun to increase. The Southeast - Asian production areas have fully started production, and the overall supply is in a loose state. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. This week, the operating rate of downstream tires for passenger cars is 69.98%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The operating rate of truck tires is 58.7%, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 4.95%. The market is hyping up macro - narratives such as the trade war. The U.S. imposing tariffs on automobiles and expanding the scope of tariffs on household appliances may seriously suppress global rubber demand. Pay close attention to the operating conditions of rubber downstream enterprises. Currently, the operating rate has rebounded this week, and combined with macro - sentiment, it drives the rubber price to rebound. Pay attention to factors such as domestic rubber import volume and inventory changes [15][16] Methanol - The domestic spot price of methanol has generally increased. The spot price of methanol in East China is reported at 2585 yuan per ton, an increase of 95 yuan per ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is reported at 2455 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared with the previous trading day. In terms of port inventory, the inventory of Chinese methanol ports has increased, with a stock of 65.2

安粮期货研究报告 安粮期货商品研究报告 豆粕：大豆供应压力仍存，期价区间震荡 安粮期货研究所 2025 年 6 月 16 日 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 农产品小组 研究员：李雨馨 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 助理研究员： 朱书颖：从业资格证号：F03120547 初审： 沈欣萌：从业资格号： F3029146 投资咨询号： Z0014147 复审： 李雨馨： 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 总部地址：合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 1 / 7 安粮期货研究报告 豆粕：短线或区间震荡 一、宏观分析 中 美 会 谈 结 束 ，就 落 实 两 国 元 首 6 月 5 日 通 话 重 要 共 识 和 巩 固 日 内 瓦 经 贸 会 谈 成 果 的 措 施 框 架 达 成 原 则 一 致 。 二、基本面分析 （ 1） 成 本 端 市 场 消 化 利 多 因 素 ， CBOT 大 豆 先 小 幅 反 弹 后 因 生 物 燃 料 政 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate briefly rebounded after an over - decline and then came under pressure again. This week, the main contract has switched to LC2509. The fundamentals show a weak supply - demand balance. The lithium ore market has stopped falling and stabilized, with a slight increase in the CIF price of spodumene concentrate and a significant decline in inventory. Although the weekly operating rate on the supply side has slightly declined, it is still at a high level. In the short term, lithium extraction from salt lakes has gradually replaced lithium extraction from mica as the main force for production growth. The demand side shows signs of weakness, with only the demand for power batteries remaining resilient, while the cathode material and terminal consumption sectors have not met expectations. Currently, the fundamentals have not substantially improved. The stabilization of ore prices provides bottom support, but the signal of upstream production cuts is unclear, and lithium prices lack upward drivers. It is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, while those with a higher risk appetite can seize the opportunities of range fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027. On June 10, local time, a Zimbabwean cabinet minister said that to promote the development of local mining processing and encourage foreign companies to carry out refining operations in the country, Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027. CRU Group data shows that in 2024, Zimbabwe supplied about 14% of China's lithium imports, and the lithium sulfate it produces will still be shipped to China for processing into battery - grade materials [7]. 3.2 Cost Side - Lithium ore prices: As of June 16, the price of spodumene concentrate (6%) was 660 yuan/ton, and the CIF price was 628 (+20) US dollars/ton; the price of lepidolite concentrate (2 - 2.5%) was 555 yuan/ton, and the price of lepidolite concentrate (3.5 - 4%) was 735 yuan/ton. Except for the increase in the CIF price, other prices remained unchanged. - Lithium ore imports: In April, the monthly import volume of spodumene was 142,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 27.3%; the import value was 33 million US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 92.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. - Lithium ore inventory: As of June 13, the weekly inventory of lithium ore in China was 81,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,000 tons. - Profit: As of June 13, according to Steel Union data, the average cost of lithium carbonate was 70,000 (+1,000) yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 9,400 (-700) yuan/ton, still below the break - even point. Among them, the production cost of externally purchased spodumene was 60,000 (+1,000) yuan/ton, and the production gross profit was - 84 (-1,200) yuan/ton. The production cost of externally purchased lepidolite was 72,000 (-2,000) yuan/ton, and the production gross profit was - 11,000 yuan/ton [9]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: According to Longzhong Information, the monthly output of lithium carbonate in April was 70,640 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.87%; the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate in the week of June 13 was 62.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.03% and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. In April, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.6%. The main import areas were still concentrated in South America. In April, Chile exported 20,200 tons to China, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 29.2%. The import value in March was 270 million US dollars [7][12]. - Demand: In the week of June 16, the capacity utilization rate of ternary materials was 48.49%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71% and a year - on - year increase of 0.66%; in May, the monthly capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate was 58.78%, a year - on - year increase of 10.75% and a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. In May, China's power battery output was 123.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 49.33% and a month - on - month increase of 4.48%; the power battery loading volume was 57.1 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 43.1% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5%, with a loading rate of 46.3%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 10.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% and a month - on - month increase of 13.1%, accounting for 17.2% of the total loading volume; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 46.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 57.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%, accounting for 81.6% of the total loading volume. From June 1 - 8, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 202,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 40% compared with the same period in June last year and a 4% increase compared with the same period last month, with a retail penetration rate of 58.8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 4.559 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34%. From June 1 - 8, the wholesale volume of new - energy vehicles by national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 166,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 5% compared with the same period in June last year and a 6% decrease compared with the same period last month, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.5%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 5.373 million units, a year - on - year increase of 39% [7][14][15]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - Weekly inventory: As of June 13, the weekly inventory was 133,549 (+1,117) physical tons, including 57,653 (+537) physical tons in smelter inventory, 40,686 (-390) physical tons in downstream inventory, and 35,210 (+970) physical tons in other links' inventory. - Monthly inventory: In May, the monthly inventory was 97,637 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 32% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. Among them, the downstream inventory was 42,246 (+4,358) physical tons, and the smelter inventory was 55,391 (-2,923) physical tons. - Exchange inventory: After centralized cancellation and re - registration at the end of March, as of June 13, the total number of warehouse receipts reached 32,118 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 1,191 lots compared with last week [18]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - Spot - futures prices: The price of the 2507 main contract of lithium carbonate rebounded after an over - decline and then came under pressure, with a weekly decline of 0.83%. And the main contract has switched to LC2509, so the trading volume and open interest data have significantly declined. The trading volume was 945,000 lots, a decrease of 275,000 lots compared with the previous period; the open interest decreased by 70,000 lots to 147,000 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was reported at 60,500 (-250) yuan/ton, and the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) was reported at 58,900 (-250) yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,650 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared with the previous trading day. - Basis analysis: The spot - futures basis of the Lc2507 contract strengthened within the week, and the spot showed a premium on Friday. On June 13, the basis was 760 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 400 yuan/ton. - Spot - futures structure: On June 13, the 09 - 11 spread was - 140 yuan/ton, and the 11 - 01 spread was - 480 yuan/ton. There was little change, and the overall structure presented a Contango structure [21].

Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices declined slightly, with the futures main contract C2507 closing at 2359 yuan/ton. Corn option trading volume was 114,451 lots, open interest was 412,397 lots, and the trading volume PCR was 0.644. The option weighted implied volatility was 11.67%, and the 30 - day historical volatility was 7.70%. The option implied volatility increased significantly [3]. - Soybean meal futures prices fluctuated slightly, with the futures main contract M2509 closing at 3045 yuan/ton. Soybean meal option trading volume was 344,631 lots, open interest was 1,035,482 lots, and the trading volume PCR was 0.966. The option weighted implied volatility was 22.12%, and the 30 - day historical volatility was 10.81%. The option implied volatility increased sharply [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data Statistics - For the corn main contract C2507, the closing price was 2359 yuan/ton, with a decline of 19 yuan and a decline rate of 0.80%. The trading volume was 409,117 lots, an increase of 19,798 lots, and the open interest was 637,414 lots, a decrease of 64,999 lots [5]. - For the soybean meal main contract M2509, the closing price was 3045 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4 yuan and an increase rate of 0.13%. The trading volume was 1,422,022 lots, an increase of 254,197 lots, and the open interest was 2,305,935 lots, a decrease of 12,086 lots [5]. 3.2 Option Market Data Statistics - For corn options, the trading volume was 114,451 lots, an increase of 13,129 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.644, a decrease of 0.025. The open interest was 412,397 lots, a decrease of 195 lots, and the open interest PCR was 0.818, a decrease of 0.001 [9]. - For soybean meal options, the trading volume was 344,631 lots, an increase of 34,379 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.966, an increase of 0.032. The open interest was 1,035,482 lots, an increase of 5,011 lots, and the open interest PCR was 0.711, a decrease of 0.012 [9]. 3.3 Option Volatility Situation - For corn options, the option weighted implied volatility was 11.67%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points with a change rate of 17.43%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 7.70%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.04 [18]. - For soybean meal options, the option weighted implied volatility was 22.12%, an increase of 4.83 percentage points with a change rate of 27.91%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 10.81%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.00 [18].

Group 1: Macro and Index Futures - The stock index futures market has shown certain volatility recently, with the main contracts rising to varying degrees. The trading volume and open interest have increased, indicating rising attention to small and medium - cap index products. However, the basis is generally at a discount, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. It is advisable to hold a light position and make low - level layouts [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil - The escalation of the Middle East situation has led to concerns about oil supply disruptions and driven up oil prices. Fundamentally, the approaching summer peak season and declining US inventories support price increases, but in the medium - term, the reaction of the Middle East situation and the outcome of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation are crucial. OPEC+ plans to increase production in July. WTI should pay attention to the pressure around $78 per barrel, and in the long - term, the upside of oil prices is limited without major geopolitical impacts on supply [3]. Group 3: Gold - The Middle East conflict has broken the consolidation of international gold prices. On June 13, spot gold prices soared by 1.7% intraday, approaching the April high. Investors should pay attention to geopolitical situations, the Fed's FOMC meeting in July, and the US - EU tariff negotiation deadline. Gold prices may face technical corrections [4][5]. Group 4: Silver - Affected by the Middle East situation, silver prices rose but were restricted by industrial attributes. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts decreased, and trade policy uncertainties suppressed industrial demand. Sprott's silver trust received a net inflow of $500 million. Silver prices are supported by geopolitical risks but may face technical overbought corrections. Attention should be paid to Iran's retaliatory actions, the Fed's FOMC meeting, and the US - EU tariff negotiation [6]. Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The price of PTA is supported by the rising cost of crude oil due to the Middle East situation, but the upside is limited. In June, PTA device maintenance and restart were concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The polyester and textile industries are in the off - season, and the market lacks positive stimuli. PTA supply and demand are in a tight balance, and it may fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol has increased slightly, with an overall operating load of 55.07%. The inventory in East China's main ports has decreased. The demand side is weak, and it may fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [8]. PVC - The supply of PVC has decreased slightly, and the demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly. The social inventory has decreased. The futures price is affected by market sentiment and may oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [9][10]. PP - The supply of PP has increased, with the average capacity utilization rate rising to 78.64%. The demand from downstream industries has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [11][12]. Plastic - The supply of plastic has increased, with the production enterprise capacity utilization rate rising to 79.17%. The demand from downstream industries has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate in the short term due to weak fundamentals [13]. Soda Ash - The supply of soda ash has increased, with the overall operating rate rising to 84.9%. The factory inventory has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The demand is average, and the futures price may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]. Glass - The supply of glass has remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the pressure during the rainy season cannot be ignored. The demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate weakly in the short term [15][16]. Rubber - The price of rubber is affected by the repeated trade war situation and the oversupply fundamentals. The domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season, and the supply is abundant. The downstream tire operating rate has decreased. Rubber may show a pattern of slow rise and sharp fall under weak fundamentals [17]. Methanol - The spot price of methanol has decreased, while the futures price has increased. The port inventory has increased, and the supply pressure is high. The demand from the MTO device has recovered, but the traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. The futures price may oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation speed and the impact of the Middle East situation on oil prices [18]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June report has limited positive support. Domestically, the corn market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed field, and weather may affect prices. The downstream demand is weak. Corn may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term [19]. Peanut - In the long - term, the domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. Currently, the market is in the inventory consumption period, with low inventory levels. The demand is in the off - season, and the price may be pushed up by restocking demand. The short - term price may weaken, and attention should be paid to the support at 8200 yuan per ton [20]. Cotton - The US cotton planting and budding rates are slightly slower than in previous years. In the long - term, the cotton supply is expected to be abundant, and the price may remain low. Currently, the import is low, and the commercial inventory is lower than usual, providing support. The downstream textile market is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. Cotton may oscillate strongly in the short term [21]. Pig - The government's reserve release has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and the consumer demand is weak. The futures contract 2509 should pay attention to whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14000, and the pig slaughter situation needs continuous attention [22]. Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory. The demand is weak due to difficult storage in hot and humid weather. The current futures price is undervalued, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. Soybean No. 2 - The market has digested the positive impact of the China - US trade talks. The USDA's June report is neutral. The US soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian soybean is in the peak export season. It may oscillate in the short term [24][25]. Soybean Meal - The global geopolitical situation is unstable. The market has digested the China - US trade talks. The US soybean planting is good, and the Brazilian soybean is in the export peak. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It may oscillate in the short term [26]. Soybean Oil - The international oil price increase has driven up the domestic soybean oil market. The US soybean planting is progressing well, and the Brazilian soybean is in the export peak. Domestically, the oil - mill operating rate is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory pressure is increasing. It may oscillate strongly in the short term [27]. Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The complexity of the 2025 interest - rate cut path, global tariff conflicts, and the Middle East risk may affect market sentiment. Domestically, policy support is strong. The copper market is in a stage of resonance, and it is advisable to hold for now, with the defense line moved to the lower neckline of the island pattern [28]. Shanghai Aluminum - The macro - sentiment is boosted by the China - US economic and trade consultation and the US interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate within a range [29][30]. Alumina - The supply of alumina is sufficient, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has increased slightly. The price is under pressure, and the futures contract 2509 may show a weak adjustment trend [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported by the tight scrap - aluminum market, but the supply is excessive. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year. The inventory is relatively high, and the futures contract 2511 may operate weakly [32]. Lithium Carbonate - The raw - material prices in the lithium industry chain have stabilized, and the supply is stable with a structural adjustment. The demand is weak. The market may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and it is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, while aggressive investors can conduct range operations [33]. Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon has increased slightly, and the demand is weak. The inventory digestion is slow, and the price is under pressure. Aggressive investors can short at high prices [34]. Polysilicon - The supply of polysilicon is stable, and the demand is weak overall. The export volume has decreased. The market supply - demand contradiction is still prominent, and the futures contract 2507 may oscillate, with attention paid to the previous low - point support [35]. Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The technical trend of stainless steel may shift from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. The cost support is weak, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [36]. Rebar - The rebar futures may shift from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. The cost is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a light - position, low - level, long - biased approach in the short term [37]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The technical trend of hot - rolled coil is stabilizing. The cost is stable, the apparent demand has recovered, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a light - position, low - level, long - biased approach in the short term [38]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore has increased, and the demand has decreased slightly. The port inventory is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory pressure is emerging. The market sentiment is boosted by the easing of China - US tariffs, but the export sustainability is uncertain. The futures contract 2509 may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed and the steel - mill restart rhythm [39][40]. Coal Mine - The supply of coking coal is expected to contract due to production accidents and new regulations. The demand for coking coal and coke is weak. The futures contracts of coking coal and coke may oscillate recently, and attention should be paid to the steel - mill inventory digestion and policy implementation [41].