Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Corn futures prices showed slight fluctuations, while the implied volatility of corn options increased significantly. The futures price of the main corn contract C2511 closed at 2,158 yuan/ton, with an option trading volume of 128,119 lots, an open interest of 353,386 lots, a trading volume PCR of 0.920, and the most actively traded contract C2511 accounting for about 83% of the total trading volume. The weighted implied volatility of options was 11.91%, and the 30 - day historical volatility was 14.96% [1][2]. - Soybean meal futures prices dropped significantly, and the implied volatility of soybean meal options rebounded slightly. The futures price of the main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at 2,928 yuan/ton, with an option trading volume of 757,172 lots, an open interest of 977,245 lots, a trading volume PCR of 1.118, and the current trading volume concentrated in slightly out - of - the - money options. The weighted implied volatility of options was 14.54%, and the 30 - day historical volatility was 16.33% [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data Statistics | Contract | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | C2511 | 2,158 | 11 | 0.51 | 564,657 | - 28,277 | 761,736 | - 36,214 | | M2601 | 2,928 | - 106 | - 3.49 | 2,372,830 | 1,326,352 | 2,007,056 | 61,070 | [3] Option Market Data Statistics | Option Underlying | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Trading Volume PCR | PCR Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Open Interest Ratio | Ratio Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | 128,119 | 14,582 | 0.920 | - 0.076 | 353,386 | - 3,459 | 0.517 | 0.016 | | Soybean Meal | 757,172 | 521,542 | 1.118 | 0.449 | 977,245 | 25,741 | 0.549 | - 0.050 | [8] Option Volatility Situation | Variety | Weighted Implied Volatility of Options (%) | Volatility Change (%) | Change Rate | 30 - Day Historical Volatility (%) | 30 - Day Volatility Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | 11.91 | 1.31 | 12.34% | 14.96 | 0.97 | | Soybean Meal | 14.54 | 0.41 | 2.91% | 16.33 | 0.33 | [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices dropped significantly, with the futures main contract C2511 closing at 2147 yuan/ton. Corn option trading volume was 113,537 lots, and the open interest was 356,845 lots. The option weighted implied volatility was 10.60%, and the 30 - day historical volatility was 14.83%. The option implied volatility decreased slightly [1][2]. - Soybean meal futures prices rose slightly, with the futures main contract M2601 closing at 3034 yuan/ton. Soybean meal option trading volume was 235,630 lots, and the open interest was 951,504 lots. The option weighted implied volatility was 14.13%, and the 30 - day historical volatility was 12.97%. The option implied volatility remained stable [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data Statistics - For the corn futures main contract C2511, the closing price was 2147 yuan/ton, with a drop of 21 yuan and a decline rate of 0.97%. The trading volume was 592,934 lots, an increase of 288,038 lots, and the open interest was 797,950 lots, a decrease of 13,885 lots [3]. - For the soybean meal futures main contract M2601, the closing price was 3034 yuan/ton, with a rise of 20 yuan and an increase rate of 0.66%. The trading volume was 1,046,478 lots, an increase of 150,872 lots, and the open interest was 1,945,986 lots, a decrease of 74,549 lots [3]. 2. Option Market Data Statistics - For corn options, the trading volume was 113,537 lots, an increase of 62,855 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.996, an increase of 0.525. The open interest was 356,845 lots, an increase of 6,246 lots, and the open interest ratio was 0.501, a decrease of 0.010 [8]. - For soybean meal options, the trading volume was 235,630 lots, an increase of 5,161 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.669, a decrease of 0.083. The open interest was 951,504 lots, a decrease of 6,566 lots, and the open interest ratio was 0.600, an increase of 0.005 [8]. 3. Option Volatility Situation - For corn options, the option weighted implied volatility was 10.60%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a decrease rate of 0.75%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 14.83%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.96 [18]. - For soybean meal options, the option weighted implied volatility was 14.13%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points and a decrease rate of 0.78%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 12.97%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.10 [18].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the commodity option data of corn and soybean meal on September 15, 2025, including futures market data, option market data, and option volatility [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices dropped significantly, and option implied volatility rose slightly [1][2] - Soybean meal futures prices declined slightly, and option implied volatility continued to fall [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data Statistics - Corn futures (C2511) closed at 2167 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 1.37%, with a trading volume of 637,412 and an open interest of 835,212. The trading volume increased by 335,136, and the open interest decreased by 16,551 [2][3] - Soybean meal futures (M2601) closed at 3042 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or 1.20%, with a trading volume of 1,450,741 and an open interest of 2,050,694. The trading volume increased by 712,120, and the open interest increased by 64,488 [2][3] 3.2 Option Market Data Statistics - Corn option trading volume was 117,622, an increase of 66,378, with a trading volume PCR of 0.824 (up 0.086). The open interest was 332,231, an increase of 1,156, and the open interest PCR was 0.528 (down 0.022) [2][8] - Soybean meal option trading volume was 295,003, an increase of 146,268, with a trading volume PCR of 0.612 (up 0.095). The open interest was 903,801, an increase of 3,840, and the open interest PCR was 0.593 (up 0.009) [2][8] 3.3 Option Volatility Situation - Corn option weighted implied volatility was 10.12%, up 0.64 percentage points or 6.75%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 15.22%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.98 [2][17] - Soybean meal option weighted implied volatility was 14.45%, down 0.23 percentage points or 1.59%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 12.41%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.08 [2][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices rose slightly, and the implied volatility of corn options continued to decline. The futures price of the main contract C2511 was reported at 2,202 yuan/ton, with an option trading volume of 46,100 lots, an open interest of 328,332 lots, a trading volume PCR of 0.645, and the option weighted implied volatility was 10.08% [1][2]. - Soybean meal futures prices rebounded slightly, and the implied volatility of soybean meal options decreased steadily. The futures price of the main contract M2601 was reported at 3,088 yuan/ton, with an option trading volume of 127,211 lots, an open interest of 897,077 lots, a trading volume PCR of 0.439, and the option weighted implied volatility was 14.92% [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Data Statistics - For the corn futures main contract C2511, the closing price was 2,202 yuan/ton, with a rise of 5 yuan and a gain of 0.23%. The trading volume was 358,208 lots, a decrease of 155,665 lots, and the open interest was 852,554 lots, a decrease of 7,872 lots [3]. - For the soybean meal futures main contract M2601, the closing price was 3,088 yuan/ton, with a rise of 22 yuan and a gain of 0.72%. The trading volume was 798,021 lots, a decrease of 7,598 lots, and the open interest was 2,001,532 lots, a decrease of 13,158 lots [3]. 2. Option Market Data Statistics - For corn options, the trading volume was 46,100 lots, a decrease of 46,425 lots, the trading volume PCR was 0.645, a decrease of 0.128, the open interest was 328,332 lots, an increase of 4,755 lots, and the open interest ratio was 0.547, an increase of 0.001 [8]. - For soybean meal options, the trading volume was 127,211 lots, a decrease of 11,172 lots, the trading volume PCR was 0.439, a decrease of 0.153, the open interest was 897,077 lots, an increase of 8,689 lots, and the open interest ratio was 0.585, a decrease of 0.003 [8]. 3. Option Volatility Situation - For corn options, the option weighted implied volatility was 10.08%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points and a decline rate of 3.94%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 14.92%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.97 [18]. - For soybean meal options, the option weighted implied volatility was 14.92%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points and a decline rate of 1.89%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 11.88%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.05 [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - New - season corn maintains a supply - loose pattern. Despite low port inventories supporting prices, downstream demand lacks significant growth, with the deep - processing industry in continuous losses and feed consumption being mainly rigid. Wheat substitution and policy auctions supplement supply, suppressing upward price movement. As wheat prices approach the policy bottom, its substitution effect on corn is expected to weaken, and some diverted demand may return to the corn market. Currently, with multiple factors at play, the market is in a critical game phase. In the short - term, after a staged rebound, corn prices are expected to decline again to test lower support, and attention should be paid to the performance at integer and cost support levels. If the decline is fully released in time and space, the market driving logic may change, and the new grain listing and downstream demand recovery need close monitoring [5][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Corn Market Structure - As of the end of August, the corn index price dropped to around 2150 yuan/ton and then rebounded technically due to oversold conditions, but the rebound is expected to be limited. After the rebound, the price may fall to the 2100 - 2150 yuan/ton support range and may even over - decline below 2100 yuan/ton. The listing volume of corn in North China is increasing, the scale of rotation grain out - storage is expanding, and imported substitutes are arriving. Downstream enterprises have sufficient inventories, and feed enterprises are reluctant to replenish stocks due to low breeding profits and substitution effects. The current futures price is higher than the new - season corn cost, and there is still downward pressure. It is advisable to watch for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [6]. - The overall futures - spot structure shows that 11 is at a premium to 01, and 01 is at a discount to 05 [7]. 3.2 Market行情Analysis - **Supply - demand balance**: The new - season corn market shows "slightly increasing supply and stable rigid demand". In 2025, the national corn output is expected to be 29,616 tons, a 0.4% year - on - year increase. Since July 1, imported corn auctions have supplemented the market, and wheat substitution has squeezed corn consumption, shifting the market from a tight balance to a loose one. The new - season corn planting cost in Northeast China has decreased by 50 - 150 yuan/mu, and considering other costs, the estimated port - collection price is around 2100 yuan/ton, close to the current futures price [9]. - **Import substitution**: In July 2025, China's corn imports decreased significantly, with only 6 tons, a 62.5% month - on - month and 94.9% year - on - year decline. From January to July, cumulative imports were 84 tons, a 93% year - on - year decrease. However, the imports of substitute grains such as barley, sorghum, rice, and cassava chips increased, cushioning the impact of reduced corn imports [12]. - **Seasonal factors**: This year, the traditional "lean period" price increase did not occur. Wheat substitution and policy auctions filled the supply gap. Wheat's price advantage has suppressed corn price increases, but as wheat prices approach the minimum purchase price, its substitution effect may weaken. Policy auctions by institutions like Sinograin have stabilized the market by increasing supply and curbing speculation [15][16][17]. - **Inventory situation**: Corn inventories at both northern and southern ports are at a medium - low level in recent years. As of September 5, the total inventory at four northern ports was about 107 tons, and that at Guangdong Port was 63 tons. Low inventories reduce the market's buffer capacity and increase price elasticity [20]. - **Downstream demand**: Corn consumption is mainly in feed and deep - processing. In the feed industry, although there is a policy to reduce pig production capacity, the process is slow, and feed demand for corn remains rigid. In the deep - processing industry, enterprises face losses, which limits their raw material procurement and has a limited impact on corn prices [23][25]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The new - season corn supply remains loose. Low port inventories support prices, but downstream demand lacks growth. Wheat substitution and policy auctions suppress price increases. As wheat prices approach the policy bottom, its substitution effect may weaken. In the short - term, after a rebound, corn prices are expected to decline again, and attention should be paid to support levels. If the decline is fully released, the market driving logic may change [5][30].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. In the market, small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Attention should be paid to the short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. - The crude oil market has a complex situation. The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, but there are concerns about US summer demand and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak [3]. - The gold market is affected by macro - economic and geopolitical factors. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, but the strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Attention should be paid to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. - For chemical products, the cost of PTA is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term, but there is an expectation of demand improvement. Ethylene glycol has a good fundamental situation and fluctuates with the cost end. The fundamentals of PVC, PP, plastic, etc. have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [7][8][9][11][13]. - In the agricultural products market, the corn price is under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply and weak downstream demand, but it rebounds in the short term. The peanut price is affected by the expected increase in planting area and is in a weak position in the short term. The cotton price is affected by domestic and foreign supply - demand situations and shows a weak shock [20][22][23]. - In the metal market, the copper market is affected by global and domestic factors, and attention should be paid to the direction choice after the convergence. The aluminum market is in a shock trend, and the alumina price is under pressure. The casting aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price to fluctuate, and the lithium carbonate price is affected by cost, supply, and demand and is dominated by sentiment in the short term [29][30][32][33][34]. - In the black market, the stainless - steel, rebar, and hot - rolled coil prices are in a weak shock in the short term due to factors such as cost support weakening and weak demand. The iron ore price may decline in the short term, and the coking coal and coke prices may also fluctuate downward [36][37][38][39][41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. Small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Pay attention to short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. Crude Oil - The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, and the weakening US dollar provides some support. However, there are concerns about US summer demand, and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak. WTI main contract should pay attention to the support near $62 - 63 per barrel [3]. Gold - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with an 86.1% probability, but strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Pay attention to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. Silver - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. Pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. Chemicals PTA - The cost is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term. The inventory days are decreasing, and the production capacity change is not significant. There is an expectation of demand improvement in the downstream. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the resistance level at 4800 yuan per ton [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The domestic supply turns loose after the restart of coal - to - ethylene glycol plants. The inventory has a slight increase, but imports may decrease. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. It fluctuates with the cost end [8]. PVC - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory has increased. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [9][10]. PP - The production capacity utilization rate has a slight increase, and the output has increased. The downstream average start - up rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force and fluctuate with market sentiment [11][12]. Plastic - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the downstream start - up rate has increased slightly. The inventory has changed from a downward trend to an upward trend. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [13]. Soda Ash - The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The market is affected by many news, and it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [14]. Glass - The supply has a narrow - range fluctuation, the demand is weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Affected by environmental protection restrictions, it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [16]. Rubber - The rubber price is affected by supply and demand. The supply is expected to be loose, and the downstream demand is affected by trade barriers. Pay attention to the resonance market with other domestic varieties and the pressure above the main contract [18]. Methanol - The futures price has increased, the inventory has increased, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased. There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction. The cost provides some support, and the price fluctuates in a range [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - The US corn production exceeds expectations, and the domestic supply is abundant. The downstream demand is weak, but it rebounds in the short term due to the influence of other agricultural product sectors [20][21]. Peanut - The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase. The new peanuts are about to be listed, and the old - crop inventory is being consumed. The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is supported by the strength of the oil category [22]. Cotton - The US Department of Agriculture's report is positive, but the domestic new - year cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The short - term supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, but there is a negative impact from the expected increase in import quotas. The price is in a weak shock [23]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, it is affected by trade policies and weather. Domestically, the supply pressure is prominent, but there is an expectation of supply shortage in the fourth quarter. The price may test the upper pressure level in the short term [24]. Soybean Oil - The import cost provides support, and the domestic supply pressure is large. The demand is driven by festivals. The price is in a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the lower support level [25][26]. Live Pigs - The supply will remain high in the short term, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price fluctuates weakly and may fluctuate in a range in the short term [27]. Eggs - The supply pressure is significant, and the egg - laying hen inventory is high. The short - term price is boosted by festival preparations, but the upward driving force is insufficient. The current futures price valuation is low [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - The copper market is affected by global and domestic factors. The global inventory transfer is coming to an end, and domestic policies boost market sentiment. Pay attention to the direction choice after the convergence of the price triangle [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high prices. The inventory has increased, and it may continue to fluctuate in the range of 20300 - 21000 yuan per ton [30][31]. Alumina - The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has increased. The main contract may be in a weak shock in the short term [32]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The cost provides support, the supply is in surplus, and the demand is affected by the off - season. The inventory is at a relatively high level, and it follows the aluminum price to fluctuate [33]. Lithium Carbonate - The cost is strongly supported, the supply pressure has weakened, and the demand is resilient. The futures price has a flash - crash limit - down, and it may fill the previous gap in the short term [34]. Industrial Silicon - The supply has a slight increase, and the demand structure is differentiated. The fundamentals are under pressure and fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [35]. Polysilicon - The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure. The price is in a wide - range shock in the short term [36]. Black Stainless Steel - The cost support has weakened, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand in the off - season is not good. The price is in a weak shock in the short term [36]. Rebar - The "anti - involution" policy effect is reflected, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The price is in a high - level weak shock in the short term [37]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Similar to rebar, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has accumulated. The price changes from a single - side rise to a high - level shock [38]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure has increased, the demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract may decline in the short term [39][40]. Coal - For coking coal, the supply recovery is slow, and the demand has weakened marginally. For coke, the demand is supported by high - level iron - water production, but the inventory removal rate has slowed down. The prices of coking coal and coke may decline in the short term [41].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices have been declining continuously, and the implied volatility of corn options has decreased slightly [1][2]. - Soybean meal futures prices have risen slightly, and the implied volatility of soybean meal options has rebounded slightly [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Data Statistics - The closing price of the corn futures main contract C2511 is 2170 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan with a decline of 0.32%. The trading volume is 353,719 lots, a decrease of 110,167 lots, and the open interest is 925,944 lots, an increase of 29,682 lots [3]. - The closing price of the soybean meal futures main contract M2601 is 3161 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan with an increase of 0.19%. The trading volume is 933,541 lots, a decrease of 123,884 lots, and the open interest is 2,107,908 lots, an increase of 44,097 lots [3]. 2. Options Market Data Statistics - The trading volume of corn options is 79,796 lots, a decrease of 55,899 lots. The trading volume PCR is 0.446, a decrease of 0.270. The open interest is 223,565 lots, an increase of 19,633 lots, and the open interest PCR is 0.412, a decrease of 0.014 [8]. - The trading volume of soybean meal options is 166,257 lots, a decrease of 410,770 lots. The trading volume PCR is 0.707, an increase of 0.129. The open interest is 585,071 lots, an increase of 23,372 lots, and the open interest PCR is 0.685, an increase of 0.024 [8]. 3. Options Volatility Situation - The weighted implied volatility of corn options is 11.77%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points with a decline rate of 2.59%. The 30 - day historical volatility is 14.16%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile is 0.93 [18]. - The weighted implied volatility of soybean meal options is 15.54%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points with an increase rate of 4.78%. The 30 - day historical volatility is 12.83%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile is 0.08 [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices showed slight fluctuations, with the main futures contract C2509 closing at 2260 yuan/ton. Corn option trading volume was 99,520 lots, and the open interest was 501,612 lots. The option-implied volatility decreased slightly [2]. - Soybean meal futures prices rebounded slightly, with the main futures contract M2601 closing at 3091 yuan/ton. Soybean meal option trading volume was 356,912 lots, and the open interest was 1,072,147 lots. The option-implied volatility continued to rise [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data Statistics - **Corn (C2509)**: Closed at 2260 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.09%. Trading volume was 232,359 lots, a decrease of 35,998 lots. Open interest was 605,565 lots, a decrease of 32,610 lots [3]. - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Closed at 3091 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 0.62%. Trading volume was 1,107,230 lots, a decrease of 436,933 lots. Open interest was 1,757,131 lots, an increase of 62,078 lots [3]. 3.2 Option Market Data Statistics - **Corn Options**: Trading volume was 99,520 lots, a decrease of 18,373 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.532, an increase of 0.003. Open interest was 501,612 lots, a decrease of 2619 lots [8]. - **Soybean Meal Options**: Trading volume was 356,912 lots, a decrease of 104,136 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.765, an increase of 0.021. Open interest was 1,072,147 lots, a decrease of 3249 lots [8]. 3.3 Option Volatility Situation - **Corn Options**: The option-weighted implied volatility was 12.30%, a decrease of 0.81 percentage points or 6.16%. The 30-day historical volatility was 8.42%, and the 30-day volatility quantile was 0.13 [17]. - **Soybean Meal Options**: The option-weighted implied volatility was 18.86%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points or 2.63%. The 30-day historical volatility was 11.40%, and the 30-day volatility quantile was 0.02 [17].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices declined slightly, and the implied volatility of corn options continued to fall [1][2]. - Soybean meal futures prices rose slightly, and the implied volatility of soybean meal options increased slightly [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data Statistics - Corn futures (C2509) closed at 2255 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.53%. The trading volume was 338,463 lots, a decrease of 26,786 lots, and the open interest was 659,407 lots, a decrease of 25,646 lots [3]. - Soybean meal futures (M2601) closed at 3094 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.52%. The trading volume was 609,803 lots, an increase of 82,719 lots, and the open interest was 1,650,480 lots, an increase of 49,993 lots [3]. 3.2 Options Market Data Statistics - Corn options had a trading volume of 164,762 lots, an increase of 53,766 lots. The volume PCR was 0.789, an increase of 0.193. The open interest was 497,389 lots, a decrease of 7,138 lots [8]. - Soybean meal options had a trading volume of 277,659 lots, an increase of 62,750 lots. The volume PCR was 0.467, a decrease of 0.056. The open interest was 1,063,962 lots, a decrease of 10,484 lots [8]. 3.3 Options Volatility Situation - The weighted implied volatility of corn options was 11.55%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points or 4.70%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 8.37%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.12 [17]. - The weighted implied volatility of soybean meal options was 17.01%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points or 4.21%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 11.15%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.02 [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]