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安粮期货国庆节前风险提示报告
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 02:58
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - High: Silver, Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Iron Ore, Bean Meal, Soybean Oil, Ethylene Glycol, Polypropylene, Plastic, Methanol [2][3][4][5][6] - Medium: Polysilicon, Coke, PTA, PVC [2][4][5][6] - Low: Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Stainless Steel, Corn, Glass [2][3][4][5] - Relatively Low: Alumina, Soda Ash [3][5] 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors, including supply - demand relationships, cost changes, policy impacts, and geopolitical situations. During the National Day holiday, due to the closure of the domestic market and potential fluctuations in the overseas market, there are many uncertainties, so it is recommended to control positions to avoid risks. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: Positive factors include strong industrial demand, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, and tight supply in the delivery area. Negative factors are the risk of technical correction and an increase in speculative short positions [2]. - **Gold**: Positive factors are its geopolitical hedging function, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, and central banks' gold purchases. Negative factors are the potential strengthening of the dollar and U.S. bond yields [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Positive factors are the Fed's interest - rate cut and shortages in copper ore raw materials. Negative factors are the high price not being recognized by downstream and the risk of the market moving in the opposite direction of the bullish expectation [2]. - **Aluminum**: Positive factors are limited supply increase and strong demand in some sectors. Negative factors are continuous inventory accumulation and high prices suppressing consumption [3]. - **Alumina**: Positive factors are high raw material costs and potential supply shortages due to environmental inspections. Negative factors are new production capacity release and imported goods' impact [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Positive factors are steel mills' pre - holiday restocking and overseas demand resilience. Negative factors are increased global shipments and high port inventories [3]. - **Rebar**: Positive factors are macro - policy support and potential demand improvement. Negative factors are the failure of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season [3][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: Positive factors are increased raw material prices. Negative factors are inventory accumulation and high production [4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Positive factors are increased raw material costs and strong demand. Negative factors are high production rates and weak market sentiment [2][3]. - **Polysilicon**: Positive factors are policy support and increased downstream acceptance. Negative factors are over - capacity and slow inventory reduction [2]. - **Coke**: Positive factors are supply contraction and high raw material costs. Negative factors are weak demand and potential supply pressure [4]. - **PTA**: Positive factors are production reduction plans by leading enterprises. Negative factors are weak cost support and low downstream inventory replenishment willingness [5]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Positive factors are geopolitical premiums. Negative factors are increased supply and weak demand [5]. - **Soda Ash**: Positive factors are strong cost support. Negative factors are over - production in the peak season and weak downstream demand [5]. - **Glass**: Positive factors are policy expectations and reduced inventory pressure. Negative factors are increased supply and high intermediate - trader inventories [5]. - **PVC**: Positive factors are cost support and low valuation. Negative factors are high supply and weak demand [6]. - **Polypropylene**: Positive factors are reduced supply due to maintenance and potential demand improvement. Negative factors are weak demand, high supply, and potential cost reduction [6]. - **Plastic**: Positive factors are the peak demand season and pre - holiday inventory replenishment. Negative factors are weak cost support and high supply [6]. - **Methanol**: Positive factors are expected device restart and supply disruptions. Negative factors are high domestic production and low - cost imports [6]. Agricultural Products - **Bean Meal**: Positive factors are increased soybean drought area and a long - term supply gap. Negative factors are sufficient short - term supply and weak demand [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: Positive factors are the same as bean meal. Negative factors are unclear bio - fuel policies and high inventory [4]. - **Corn**: Positive factors are short - term supply shortages and inventory replenishment demand. Negative factors are increased production and policy - driven supply reduction [4]. - **Cotton**: Positive factors are low commercial inventory and cost support. Negative factors are potential global economic slowdown and high supply expectations [4][5].
玉米期价小幅波动,期权隐波小幅下降豆粕期价大幅上涨,期权隐波保持稳定
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 10:02
安粮期货期权数据报告 商品期权数据研报 2025 年 9 月 25 日 玉米期价小幅波动,期权隐波小幅下降 豆粕期价大幅上涨,期权隐波保持稳定 内容摘要 玉米期价小幅波动,期货主力合约 C2511 报收于 2165 元/吨。玉米期权成交 92930 手, 持仓量为 371768 手,成交量 PCR 为 0.544,成 交量最高的合约 C2511 合约,其占总成交量比 例 为 75% 左 右 。 期 权 加 权 隐 含 波 动 率 为 10.93%,30 日历史波动率为 14.72%,期权隐波 小幅下降。 安粮期货研究所 期权组 豆粕期价大幅上涨,期货主力合约 M2601 报收于 2967 元/吨。豆粕期权成交 291780 手, 持仓量为 989264 手,成交量 PCR 为 0.693,目 前成交量集中在浅度虚值期权。期权加权隐含 波动率为 14.68%,30 日历史波动率为 15.21%, 期权隐波保持稳定。 期货从业资格号: 投资咨询证号: TEL:0551-62879960 张莎 F03088817 Z0019577 总部地址:合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线: 40 ...
玉米期价小幅波动,期权隐波大幅上升豆粕期价大幅下跌,期权隐波小幅回升
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 11:07
商品期权数据研报 2025 年 9 月 23 日 玉米期价小幅波动,期权隐波大幅上升 豆粕期价大幅下跌,期权隐波小幅回升 内容摘要 玉米期价小幅波动,期货主力合约 C2511 报收于 2158 元/吨。玉米期权成交 128119 手, 持仓量为 353386 手,成交量 PCR 为 0.920,成 交量最高的合约 C2511 合约,其占总成交量比 例 为 83% 左 右 。 期 权 加 权 隐 含 波 动 率 为 11.91%,30 日历史波动率为 14.96%,期权隐波 大幅上升。 安粮期货研究所 期权组 安粮期货期权数据报告 豆粕期价大幅下跌,期货主力合约 M2601 报收于 2928 元/吨。豆粕期权成交 757172 手, 持仓量为 977245 手,成交量 PCR 为 1.118,目 前成交量集中在浅度虚值期权。期权加权隐含 波动率为 14.54%,30 日历史波动率为 16.33%, 期权隐波小幅回升。 期货从业资格号: 投资咨询证号: TEL:0551-62879960 张莎 F03088817 Z0019577 总部地址:合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线: 4 ...
玉米期价大幅下跌,期权隐波小幅下降豆粕期价小幅上涨,期权隐波保持平稳
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 10:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices dropped significantly, with the futures main contract C2511 closing at 2147 yuan/ton. Corn option trading volume was 113,537 lots, and the open interest was 356,845 lots. The option weighted implied volatility was 10.60%, and the 30 - day historical volatility was 14.83%. The option implied volatility decreased slightly [1][2]. - Soybean meal futures prices rose slightly, with the futures main contract M2601 closing at 3034 yuan/ton. Soybean meal option trading volume was 235,630 lots, and the open interest was 951,504 lots. The option weighted implied volatility was 14.13%, and the 30 - day historical volatility was 12.97%. The option implied volatility remained stable [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data Statistics - For the corn futures main contract C2511, the closing price was 2147 yuan/ton, with a drop of 21 yuan and a decline rate of 0.97%. The trading volume was 592,934 lots, an increase of 288,038 lots, and the open interest was 797,950 lots, a decrease of 13,885 lots [3]. - For the soybean meal futures main contract M2601, the closing price was 3034 yuan/ton, with a rise of 20 yuan and an increase rate of 0.66%. The trading volume was 1,046,478 lots, an increase of 150,872 lots, and the open interest was 1,945,986 lots, a decrease of 74,549 lots [3]. 2. Option Market Data Statistics - For corn options, the trading volume was 113,537 lots, an increase of 62,855 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.996, an increase of 0.525. The open interest was 356,845 lots, an increase of 6,246 lots, and the open interest ratio was 0.501, a decrease of 0.010 [8]. - For soybean meal options, the trading volume was 235,630 lots, an increase of 5,161 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.669, a decrease of 0.083. The open interest was 951,504 lots, a decrease of 6,566 lots, and the open interest ratio was 0.600, an increase of 0.005 [8]. 3. Option Volatility Situation - For corn options, the option weighted implied volatility was 10.60%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a decrease rate of 0.75%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 14.83%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.96 [18]. - For soybean meal options, the option weighted implied volatility was 14.13%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points and a decrease rate of 0.78%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 12.97%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.10 [18].
玉米期价大幅下跌,期权隐波小幅回升豆粕期价小幅下跌,期权隐波持续下降
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 12:32
Report Overview - The report focuses on the commodity option data of corn and soybean meal on September 15, 2025, including futures market data, option market data, and option volatility [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices dropped significantly, and option implied volatility rose slightly [1][2] - Soybean meal futures prices declined slightly, and option implied volatility continued to fall [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data Statistics - Corn futures (C2511) closed at 2167 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 1.37%, with a trading volume of 637,412 and an open interest of 835,212. The trading volume increased by 335,136, and the open interest decreased by 16,551 [2][3] - Soybean meal futures (M2601) closed at 3042 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or 1.20%, with a trading volume of 1,450,741 and an open interest of 2,050,694. The trading volume increased by 712,120, and the open interest increased by 64,488 [2][3] 3.2 Option Market Data Statistics - Corn option trading volume was 117,622, an increase of 66,378, with a trading volume PCR of 0.824 (up 0.086). The open interest was 332,231, an increase of 1,156, and the open interest PCR was 0.528 (down 0.022) [2][8] - Soybean meal option trading volume was 295,003, an increase of 146,268, with a trading volume PCR of 0.612 (up 0.095). The open interest was 903,801, an increase of 3,840, and the open interest PCR was 0.593 (up 0.009) [2][8] 3.3 Option Volatility Situation - Corn option weighted implied volatility was 10.12%, up 0.64 percentage points or 6.75%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 15.22%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.98 [2][17] - Soybean meal option weighted implied volatility was 14.45%, down 0.23 percentage points or 1.59%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 12.41%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.08 [2][17]
玉米期价小幅上涨,期权隐波持续下降豆粕期价小幅回升,期权隐波稳定下降
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 11:25
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices rose slightly, and the implied volatility of corn options continued to decline. The futures price of the main contract C2511 was reported at 2,202 yuan/ton, with an option trading volume of 46,100 lots, an open interest of 328,332 lots, a trading volume PCR of 0.645, and the option weighted implied volatility was 10.08% [1][2]. - Soybean meal futures prices rebounded slightly, and the implied volatility of soybean meal options decreased steadily. The futures price of the main contract M2601 was reported at 3,088 yuan/ton, with an option trading volume of 127,211 lots, an open interest of 897,077 lots, a trading volume PCR of 0.439, and the option weighted implied volatility was 14.92% [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Data Statistics - For the corn futures main contract C2511, the closing price was 2,202 yuan/ton, with a rise of 5 yuan and a gain of 0.23%. The trading volume was 358,208 lots, a decrease of 155,665 lots, and the open interest was 852,554 lots, a decrease of 7,872 lots [3]. - For the soybean meal futures main contract M2601, the closing price was 3,088 yuan/ton, with a rise of 22 yuan and a gain of 0.72%. The trading volume was 798,021 lots, a decrease of 7,598 lots, and the open interest was 2,001,532 lots, a decrease of 13,158 lots [3]. 2. Option Market Data Statistics - For corn options, the trading volume was 46,100 lots, a decrease of 46,425 lots, the trading volume PCR was 0.645, a decrease of 0.128, the open interest was 328,332 lots, an increase of 4,755 lots, and the open interest ratio was 0.547, an increase of 0.001 [8]. - For soybean meal options, the trading volume was 127,211 lots, a decrease of 11,172 lots, the trading volume PCR was 0.439, a decrease of 0.153, the open interest was 897,077 lots, an increase of 8,689 lots, and the open interest ratio was 0.585, a decrease of 0.003 [8]. 3. Option Volatility Situation - For corn options, the option weighted implied volatility was 10.08%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points and a decline rate of 3.94%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 14.92%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.97 [18]. - For soybean meal options, the option weighted implied volatility was 14.92%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points and a decline rate of 1.89%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 11.88%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.05 [18].
玉米期货月报-20250909
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-09-09 11:42
安粮期货研究报告 安粮期货商品研究报告 玉米期货月报 安粮期货研究所 2025 年 9 月 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 农产品小组 研究员: 潘兆敏 从业资格号:F3064781 投资咨询号:Z0022343 初审: 潘兆敏:从业资格号:F3064781 投资咨询号:Z0022343 复审: 赵肖肖:从业资格号:F0303938 投资咨询号:Z0022015 总部地址:安徽省合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线: 400—626—9988 网站地址:www.alqh.com 1 / 9 安粮期货研究报告 综述:短期反弹难改弱势,关注期价下方整数支撑 核心观点: 从基本面看,新季玉米整体仍维持供应宽松格局。尽管港口库存处于低位对价格有一定 支撑,但下游需求缺乏明显增量,深加工行业持续亏损,饲用消费也以刚性需求为主。与此 同时,小麦替代和政策性拍卖有效补充市场供应,打破了以往季节性规律,压制了玉米价格 的上行空间。值得关注的是,随着小麦价格逐渐接近政策底部,其对玉米的替代效应预计减 弱,部分被分流的需求有望回归玉米市场。当前多空因素交织,市场进入关键博弈 ...
国投安粮期货:国内经济增长稳中有进,流动性环境宽松,央行明确消费贷贴息、育儿补贴等扩内需
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 05:15
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. In the market, small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Attention should be paid to the short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. - The crude oil market has a complex situation. The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, but there are concerns about US summer demand and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak [3]. - The gold market is affected by macro - economic and geopolitical factors. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, but the strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Attention should be paid to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. - For chemical products, the cost of PTA is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term, but there is an expectation of demand improvement. Ethylene glycol has a good fundamental situation and fluctuates with the cost end. The fundamentals of PVC, PP, plastic, etc. have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [7][8][9][11][13]. - In the agricultural products market, the corn price is under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply and weak downstream demand, but it rebounds in the short term. The peanut price is affected by the expected increase in planting area and is in a weak position in the short term. The cotton price is affected by domestic and foreign supply - demand situations and shows a weak shock [20][22][23]. - In the metal market, the copper market is affected by global and domestic factors, and attention should be paid to the direction choice after the convergence. The aluminum market is in a shock trend, and the alumina price is under pressure. The casting aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price to fluctuate, and the lithium carbonate price is affected by cost, supply, and demand and is dominated by sentiment in the short term [29][30][32][33][34]. - In the black market, the stainless - steel, rebar, and hot - rolled coil prices are in a weak shock in the short term due to factors such as cost support weakening and weak demand. The iron ore price may decline in the short term, and the coking coal and coke prices may also fluctuate downward [36][37][38][39][41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. Small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Pay attention to short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. Crude Oil - The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, and the weakening US dollar provides some support. However, there are concerns about US summer demand, and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak. WTI main contract should pay attention to the support near $62 - 63 per barrel [3]. Gold - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with an 86.1% probability, but strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Pay attention to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. Silver - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. Pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. Chemicals PTA - The cost is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term. The inventory days are decreasing, and the production capacity change is not significant. There is an expectation of demand improvement in the downstream. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the resistance level at 4800 yuan per ton [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The domestic supply turns loose after the restart of coal - to - ethylene glycol plants. The inventory has a slight increase, but imports may decrease. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. It fluctuates with the cost end [8]. PVC - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory has increased. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [9][10]. PP - The production capacity utilization rate has a slight increase, and the output has increased. The downstream average start - up rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force and fluctuate with market sentiment [11][12]. Plastic - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the downstream start - up rate has increased slightly. The inventory has changed from a downward trend to an upward trend. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [13]. Soda Ash - The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The market is affected by many news, and it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [14]. Glass - The supply has a narrow - range fluctuation, the demand is weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Affected by environmental protection restrictions, it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [16]. Rubber - The rubber price is affected by supply and demand. The supply is expected to be loose, and the downstream demand is affected by trade barriers. Pay attention to the resonance market with other domestic varieties and the pressure above the main contract [18]. Methanol - The futures price has increased, the inventory has increased, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased. There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction. The cost provides some support, and the price fluctuates in a range [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - The US corn production exceeds expectations, and the domestic supply is abundant. The downstream demand is weak, but it rebounds in the short term due to the influence of other agricultural product sectors [20][21]. Peanut - The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase. The new peanuts are about to be listed, and the old - crop inventory is being consumed. The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is supported by the strength of the oil category [22]. Cotton - The US Department of Agriculture's report is positive, but the domestic new - year cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The short - term supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, but there is a negative impact from the expected increase in import quotas. The price is in a weak shock [23]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, it is affected by trade policies and weather. Domestically, the supply pressure is prominent, but there is an expectation of supply shortage in the fourth quarter. The price may test the upper pressure level in the short term [24]. Soybean Oil - The import cost provides support, and the domestic supply pressure is large. The demand is driven by festivals. The price is in a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the lower support level [25][26]. Live Pigs - The supply will remain high in the short term, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price fluctuates weakly and may fluctuate in a range in the short term [27]. Eggs - The supply pressure is significant, and the egg - laying hen inventory is high. The short - term price is boosted by festival preparations, but the upward driving force is insufficient. The current futures price valuation is low [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - The copper market is affected by global and domestic factors. The global inventory transfer is coming to an end, and domestic policies boost market sentiment. Pay attention to the direction choice after the convergence of the price triangle [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high prices. The inventory has increased, and it may continue to fluctuate in the range of 20300 - 21000 yuan per ton [30][31]. Alumina - The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has increased. The main contract may be in a weak shock in the short term [32]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The cost provides support, the supply is in surplus, and the demand is affected by the off - season. The inventory is at a relatively high level, and it follows the aluminum price to fluctuate [33]. Lithium Carbonate - The cost is strongly supported, the supply pressure has weakened, and the demand is resilient. The futures price has a flash - crash limit - down, and it may fill the previous gap in the short term [34]. Industrial Silicon - The supply has a slight increase, and the demand structure is differentiated. The fundamentals are under pressure and fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [35]. Polysilicon - The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure. The price is in a wide - range shock in the short term [36]. Black Stainless Steel - The cost support has weakened, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand in the off - season is not good. The price is in a weak shock in the short term [36]. Rebar - The "anti - involution" policy effect is reflected, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The price is in a high - level weak shock in the short term [37]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Similar to rebar, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has accumulated. The price changes from a single - side rise to a high - level shock [38]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure has increased, the demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract may decline in the short term [39][40]. Coal - For coking coal, the supply recovery is slow, and the demand has weakened marginally. For coke, the demand is supported by high - level iron - water production, but the inventory removal rate has slowed down. The prices of coking coal and coke may decline in the short term [41].
玉米期价连续下跌,期权隐波小幅回升
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 12:07
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices have been declining continuously, and the implied volatility of corn options has decreased slightly [1][2]. - Soybean meal futures prices have risen slightly, and the implied volatility of soybean meal options has rebounded slightly [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Data Statistics - The closing price of the corn futures main contract C2511 is 2170 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan with a decline of 0.32%. The trading volume is 353,719 lots, a decrease of 110,167 lots, and the open interest is 925,944 lots, an increase of 29,682 lots [3]. - The closing price of the soybean meal futures main contract M2601 is 3161 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan with an increase of 0.19%. The trading volume is 933,541 lots, a decrease of 123,884 lots, and the open interest is 2,107,908 lots, an increase of 44,097 lots [3]. 2. Options Market Data Statistics - The trading volume of corn options is 79,796 lots, a decrease of 55,899 lots. The trading volume PCR is 0.446, a decrease of 0.270. The open interest is 223,565 lots, an increase of 19,633 lots, and the open interest PCR is 0.412, a decrease of 0.014 [8]. - The trading volume of soybean meal options is 166,257 lots, a decrease of 410,770 lots. The trading volume PCR is 0.707, an increase of 0.129. The open interest is 585,071 lots, an increase of 23,372 lots, and the open interest PCR is 0.685, an increase of 0.024 [8]. 3. Options Volatility Situation - The weighted implied volatility of corn options is 11.77%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points with a decline rate of 2.59%. The 30 - day historical volatility is 14.16%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile is 0.93 [18]. - The weighted implied volatility of soybean meal options is 15.54%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points with an increase rate of 4.78%. The 30 - day historical volatility is 12.83%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile is 0.08 [18].
玉米期价小幅波动,期权隐波小幅下降,豆粕期价小幅回升,期权隐波持续上升
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 13:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices showed slight fluctuations, with the main futures contract C2509 closing at 2260 yuan/ton. Corn option trading volume was 99,520 lots, and the open interest was 501,612 lots. The option-implied volatility decreased slightly [2]. - Soybean meal futures prices rebounded slightly, with the main futures contract M2601 closing at 3091 yuan/ton. Soybean meal option trading volume was 356,912 lots, and the open interest was 1,072,147 lots. The option-implied volatility continued to rise [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data Statistics - **Corn (C2509)**: Closed at 2260 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.09%. Trading volume was 232,359 lots, a decrease of 35,998 lots. Open interest was 605,565 lots, a decrease of 32,610 lots [3]. - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Closed at 3091 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 0.62%. Trading volume was 1,107,230 lots, a decrease of 436,933 lots. Open interest was 1,757,131 lots, an increase of 62,078 lots [3]. 3.2 Option Market Data Statistics - **Corn Options**: Trading volume was 99,520 lots, a decrease of 18,373 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.532, an increase of 0.003. Open interest was 501,612 lots, a decrease of 2619 lots [8]. - **Soybean Meal Options**: Trading volume was 356,912 lots, a decrease of 104,136 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.765, an increase of 0.021. Open interest was 1,072,147 lots, a decrease of 3249 lots [8]. 3.3 Option Volatility Situation - **Corn Options**: The option-weighted implied volatility was 12.30%, a decrease of 0.81 percentage points or 6.16%. The 30-day historical volatility was 8.42%, and the 30-day volatility quantile was 0.13 [17]. - **Soybean Meal Options**: The option-weighted implied volatility was 18.86%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points or 2.63%. The 30-day historical volatility was 11.40%, and the 30-day volatility quantile was 0.02 [17].