Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market trend of the non-ferrous sector from the second half of 2025 to early 2026 followed the logic of the leading stock strategy in the stock market, with lithium carbonate as the core leader, followed by gold, platinum-palladium as followers, and finally silver taking over as the new leader [2][7][9] - There is a two-way feedback mechanism between the commodity and stock markets, where the futures market acts as a "weather vane" and the stock market as an "amplifier" [10][12] - When facing a strong commodity trend driven by sentiment and capital, investors should establish a systematic strategy that combines core cognition, operational tools, and mindset management [17][20] Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Market Summary - Lithium carbonate became the core leader in the early "anti-involution" market due to its unique "leading gene", and its "first negative" feature provided an opportunity for off-market funds to enter [2] - After lithium carbonate entered a high-level shock, some funds flowed to gold as a "catch-up" choice, while platinum-palladium played a "follower" role [2][4] - In early January 2026, silver started an independent upward wave, taking over as the new market leader due to its strong fundamentals and price ratio effect [7] 2. Futures-Stock Linkage Mechanism - The commodity market's profit-making effect can be transmitted to the stock market, and vice versa, with the futures market reacting first and the stock market showing greater sensitivity and price elasticity [10] - The difference in trading rules between futures (T+0) and stocks (T+1) leads to different behaviors, and stock price fluctuations can sometimes be an "early warning signal" for the futures market [11][12] - To select stocks in a futures trend, investors should use data tools to identify market-recognized targets and look for stocks with resonance in technical, capital, and fundamental aspects [15][16] 3. Investment Insights - Accept the new reality that "sentiment is the fundamental factor" and follow the trend instead of trying to predict the top [17] - Use mobile stop-loss and options tools to manage risks and enhance returns [19] - Manage mindset by accepting that it's impossible to sell at the highest point, focusing on realized returns, and adhering to trading discipline [19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market is entering the pre - festival purchasing and selling sprint stage. The overall grain sales progress has exceeded 50%, but the pre - festival concentrated grain sales pressure has not been fully released. Northeast grain sales are faster than last year, while North China is slower. Pre - festival supply pressure is controllable, and prices will fluctuate within a limited range. After the Spring Festival, there may be phased concentrated grain sales pressure. Attention should be paid to the grain sales rhythm, downstream demand recovery, and market sentiment [6][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn Market Structure - Since the end of December, the price of the corn main contract has rebounded from a low of 2183 yuan/ton and reached a high of 2314 yuan/ton on January 26, then entered a high - level correction. The grain sales progress in the Northeast is 62%, and 53% in North China. The market circulation of grain sources has increased, but farmers are still reluctant to sell high - quality grain. State reserve and local reserve corn supplies are increasing, which may put pressure on prices. Downstream enterprises are near the balance of profit and loss and have limited acceptance of high - priced corn, and pre - festival inventory - building demand is approaching the end [8] - The overall structure shows a Contango structure, with 05 contract at a discount to 09, and 09 at a discount to 01 [9] 3.2 Market行情Analysis 3.2.1 Loose supply in the corn market lays the foundation for low prices - The new - season corn market shows "slightly increasing supply and stable rigid demand". The national corn output in 2026 is expected to be 301.24 million tons, an increase of 3.38 million tons compared with 2024. Imported corn auctions and wheat substitution have made the market supply more balanced. The planting cost in the Northeast has decreased by 50 - 150 yuan/mu. After calculation, the port collection price is about 2000 yuan/ton, and the bottom of the corn futures price is between 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton [12][13][14] - There are still regional and structural contradictions in corn production. About 20 - 30 million tons of North China corn has quality problems, which has increased the demand for Northeast corn. The current grain sales progress in the Northeast is about 65%, and 55% in North China. Farmers are still reluctant to sell high - quality grain, and the increase in state and local reserve corn supplies may put pressure on prices [17] - In December 2025, China imported 800,000 tons of corn, a year - on - year increase of 1.35%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 2.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41%. It is expected that the import volume in early 2026 will remain low, and the import volume in 2025/2026 is estimated to be 4 million tons, an increase of 2.18 million tons compared with the previous year [19] - In 2025, wheat production increased by about 4% year - on - year. Due to weak demand, wheat has a price advantage over corn, and the estimated substitution volume is between 20 - 30 million tons. As the price difference between corn and wheat reverses, wheat substitution is expected to decrease [24] 3.2.2 Downstream demand remains rigid but has no incremental growth, with limited boosting effect - In the feed and breeding sector, the policy has promoted the reduction of sow inventory since July, but the process is slow. As of December 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, and the sow inventory was 39.61 million. The pig price is below the cost, and the short - term demand for corn feed is mainly rigid. The recent breeding profit has rebounded slightly, with the profit of purchasing piglets at 47.8 yuan/head and the profit of self - breeding sows at 96.27 yuan/head as of January 30 [29] - In the deep - processing sector, after the price increase of new - season corn, the cost has increased significantly, and enterprises are in a loss state. The total regional processing profit is - 49.11 yuan/ton. Enterprises' enthusiasm for inventory replenishment is affected, and feed enterprises mainly purchase on demand [30] 3.2.3 Inventory is at a phased low, increasing price elasticity - As of January 30, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.63 million tons, and the inventory in the Guangdong port was 660,000 tons. The decline in northern port inventory may be due to the depletion of farmers' surplus grain and traders' hoarding. The decline in southern port inventory reflects the decrease in arrivals and stable downstream提货. The overall decline in port inventory makes the market more sensitive to price fluctuations [36] 3.3 Market Outlook - The pre - festival supply pressure is controllable, and prices will fluctuate in a narrow range. After the Spring Festival, due to temperature rise and farmers' storage pressure, there may be phased concentrated grain sales pressure. Attention should be paid to the grain sales rhythm, downstream demand recovery, and market sentiment [6][38]

安粮期货商品研究报告 | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 皖证监函【2017】203 | 号 | | | 研究所 农产品小组 | | | | 研究员：朱书颖 | | | | 从业资格号：F03120547 | | | 安粮期货研究所 | 投资咨询号：Z0022992 | | | 2026 年 2 月 3 日 | 初审： | | | | 张莎： 从业资格号：F03088817 | | | | 投资咨询号：Z0019577 | | | | 复审： | | | | 赵肖肖： 从业资格号：F0303938 | | | | | 投资咨询号：Z0022015 | 1 豆粕：价格中枢承压下移 核心观点：当前豆粕市场处于"强预期"与"弱现实"中博弈，外盘交易逻辑围绕美豆出口 表现和南美供应压力展开，短期南美天气扰动带来的价格升水使得盘面出现波动。中长期关 注中美贸易政策变化和生物柴油政策推行。但全球供应宽松主基调依旧压制全球大豆价格中 枢，价格上行空间有限。国内预计一季度供应偏紧，但随着新作南美大豆到港上市，供强需 弱格局依旧。当前下游因豆粕价格合适开始建仓远月合约，远月成交放量 ...

安粮期货研究报告 安粮期货商品研究报告 塑料期货月报 | 安粮期货 | | --- | 展望 2 月，国内聚乙烯市场受春节季节性主导，供应增量对冲去化利好，下游需求整体 走弱，供需矛盾加剧，库存与成本存不确定性，市场预计偏弱调整。 总部地址：安徽省合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 2/11 安粮期货研究报告 一、供应端：边际改善难改宽松预期 安粮期货 2026 年 2 月 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所农产品小组 研究员: 龚悦：从业资格号：F3023504 投资咨询号：Z0014055 助理研究员： 郑钰岷：从业资格号：F03146524 初审： 张莎：从业资格号：F03088817 投资咨询号：Z0019577 复审： 赵肖肖：从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 总部地址：安徽省合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 1/11 安粮期货研究报告 综述：成本托底难抵淡季压 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overall, in January, the supply of soda ash increased, demand was weakly stable, and enterprise inventories slightly accumulated, with fundamental pressure still present. In February, the supply level still has room for improvement, and as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, the demand for soda ash will continue to shrink. Therefore, the loose supply - demand situation of soda ash is expected to deepen, and the inventory pressure on enterprises before the Spring Festival will further increase. Meanwhile, the warming of external macro - sentiment, important domestic meetings in early March, and the trends of coal and black varieties in the futures market all have a linkage effect on the futures price of soda ash. It is expected that the futures price will continue to fluctuate in the bottom - range in February, and the oversupply situation will continue to deepen in the medium - term. If there are no unexpectedly positive factors in the macro and policy aspects, the futures and spot prices of soda ash will be under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the full - production time of new capacities, changes in enterprise inventories, purchasing power of the middle and lower reaches, downstream production capacities and operating conditions, macro - policies, and the overall sentiment of the commodity market [4][24]. Summary by Directory Supply Side - In January, there were few domestic device maintenance enterprises, and with the release of new capacities, the supply steadily recovered. In February, there will still be enterprises resuming production after maintenance, and the new capacities will continue to increase, so the supply in February is expected to further increase. As of January 30, the overall operating rate of soda ash devices was 84.19%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.89%; the weekly output of soda ash was 78.31 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.14 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.46 tons. The total output of soda ash in January was about 3.4138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 233,300 tons, with a growth rate of 7.34%. In February, Southern Alkali Industry has a maintenance plan, and other enterprises have no clear maintenance plans for the time being. However, there will still be enterprises resuming production after maintenance, and the load of new capacities will continue to increase, so the supply level of soda ash will increase again, and it is possible that the weekly output will exceed 800,000 tons [6]. - In January, the inventory of soda ash enterprises first increased and then decreased, but it is still at a high level compared to the same period in history. As of January 30, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5442 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.51%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 828,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 716,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 194,000 tons. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival in February, downstream enterprises will shut down for holidays and logistics will stop, so there is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, and the market will still face relatively high inventory pressure year - on - year after the Spring Festival [8][9]. - In January, the profit of the soda ash joint - alkali process slightly improved, while the profit of the ammonia - alkali process continued to decline, but the overall situation was still in a loss. As of January 30, the production cost of soda ash for ammonia - alkali manufacturers in North China was 1,380.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.95 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of soda ash manufacturers was - 160.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton; the production cost of soda ash for joint - alkali manufacturers in East China was 1,274.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.5 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of soda ash manufacturers was - 94.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. In February, the supply - demand situation may not improve, and it is expected that the industry profit will continue to be in a loss. In the medium - term, in the long - cycle of soda ash oversupply, low industry profit may become the norm, but continuous industry losses will support a partial reduction in phased supply [10]. Demand Side - In January, the supply of float glass continued to decline, and there is still an expectation of further decline in February. As of January 30, 2026, the production profit of float glass using coal as raw material was - 68.50 (- 3.39) yuan/ton, the production profit using petroleum coke as raw material was 1.07 (+ 2.85) yuan/ton, and the production profit using natural gas as raw material was - 155.12 (+ 3.57) yuan/ton. Except for the coal - based process, the process profits of petroleum coke and natural gas improved month - on - month, but the overall industry profit was still poor. In January, 1 float glass production line was ignited, 3 production lines were shut down for water release, and 1 previously ignited production line started to produce glass, resulting in little change in the number of operating production lines. The weekly output decreased from 1.075125 million tons to 1.056965 million tons, and the industry operating rate decreased from 73.04% to 71.86%. After the Spring Festival, there are still plans to shut down production lines for cold repair, with a maximum daily melting volume of 2,500 tons per day. If implemented, the daily melting volume of float glass in production will drop to about 148,500 tons [13]. - In January, the inventory of float glass enterprises decreased. The ending inventory decreased from 56.866 million weight boxes to 52.564 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 7.57%, and it has now fallen to the historical median level. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation for glass factories. In addition, the inventory levels of middle - stream goods in core regions such as Hebei and Hubei are also at a high level, and the market will face double high - inventory pressures from manufacturers and traders after the Spring Festival [14]. - As of December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate development investment was - 17.20% (- 1.30%), the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate construction area was - 10.00% (- 0.40%), the cumulative year - on - year decline in newly started construction area was - 20.40% (+ 0.10%), the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate completion area was - 18.10% (- 0.10%), and the cumulative year - on - year decline in commercial housing sales area was - 8.70% (- 0.90%). In December 2025, the production and sales of automobiles decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production and sales of automobiles in December were 3.296 million and 3.272 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 and 157,000 respectively. From January to December 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.4% in production and 9.4% in sales [15][17]. - As of December 2025, the monthly actual consumption of soda ash was 3.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons, with a growth rate of 2.64%. In February, the domestic soda ash market is not optimistic, with prices fluctuating at the bottom and expectations of decreased transactions and consumption. In December 2025, China's soda ash imports were 3,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons, with a growth rate of 1278%; exports were 232,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,400 tons, with a growth rate of 22.91%. From January to December, the cumulative imports were 25,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 97.41%; the cumulative exports were 2.194 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.75%. It is expected that in 2026, the high - level export of soda ash will continue, and the import window is almost non - existent [19]. Recent Macro - event Dynamics - On January 30, 2026, US President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman to replace Jerome Powell, whose term will end in May 2026. Warsh is expected to support interest rate cuts but will not adopt the more radical policy - easing measures advocated by some other potential candidates, which has caused significant fluctuations in the global financial market, with a neutral - bearish rating [21]. - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected. Fed Chairman Powell said that the economic growth outlook has significantly improved, and the risks of inflation and employment have both decreased, suggesting that there is no urgent need to further reduce borrowing costs. This is the first pause after a continuous interest - rate cut cycle, and this result was widely expected in the financial market, with a neutral rating [21]. - The Iranian President has ordered the start of nuclear negotiations with the US, and the two sides are likely to hold high - level talks in Istanbul, Turkey on February 6, with a neutral rating [21]. Summary and Outlook - Overall, in January, the supply of soda ash increased, demand was weakly stable, and enterprise inventories slightly accumulated, with fundamental pressure still present. In February, the supply level still has room for improvement, and as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, the demand for soda ash will continue to shrink. The loose supply - demand situation of soda ash is expected to deepen, and the inventory pressure on enterprises before the Spring Festival will further increase. The warming of external macro - sentiment, important domestic meetings in early March, and the trends of coal and black varieties in the futures market all have a linkage effect on the futures price of soda ash. It is expected that the futures price of soda ash will continue to fluctuate in a wide range in February. In the medium - term, the oversupply situation will continue to deepen. If there are no unexpectedly positive factors in the macro and policy aspects, the futures and spot prices of soda ash will be under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the full - production time of new capacities, changes in enterprise inventories, purchasing power of the middle and lower reaches, downstream production capacities and operating conditions, macro - policies, and the overall sentiment of the commodity market [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapid decline in precious metal prices in early February 2026 was due to the combined effects of short - term speculative leverage, sentiment reversal, and technical over - buying correction, which was a risk clearance for the previous overheating. As short - term sentiment calms, the market will refocus on long - term fundamentals. The supply - demand tightness of silver remains unchanged, and the current correction creates space for future development. However, short - term volatility risks cannot be ignored, and attention should also be paid to sentiment linkage and risk diffusion among related sectors [20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Short - term: Triggers for the Retracement - **Market sentiment shift triggering long - position stampede**: The "hawkish" remarks of the new Fed Chair nominee reversed the market's optimistic sentiment about monetary policy, increasing the expected holding cost of gold and reducing speculative long - position sentiment. High - leveraged positions were forced to liquidate due to margin shortages, forming a negative feedback loop and exacerbating price declines [4][5] - **Low - level repair demand for the gold - silver ratio**: The gold - silver ratio reached a 13 - year low of 48.28 on January 30, 2026, far below the long - term average. There was a strong technical need for ratio repair. When the market turned weak, silver faced more selling pressure and larger declines [7][9] - **Reverse fluctuations under physical delivery pressure**: Commercial dealers held a net short position of about 220 million ounces of silver, more than twice the exchange's registered silver inventory. To prevent delivery risks, CME raised the margin for precious metal futures, cooling speculation and giving short - sellers room to adjust positions [10] Medium - and Long - term: Fundamentals Remain Tight - **Rigid shortage in the silver market**: The global silver market was in short supply from 2021 to 2025, and the supply gap in 2025 was about 117.6 million ounces. Industrial demand, especially from the photovoltaic industry, grew rapidly, while supply growth was restricted by factors such as low ore grades and limited recycling, supporting long - term price increases [12][15] - **Inventory at a near - decade low**: Global silver inventory was at its lowest level in nearly a decade, reflecting supply shortages and weakening the market's buffer capacity. Once demand recovers, prices may rise rapidly, providing structural support for the medium - and long - term trend of silver [17]

2026/01/27 宏观 宏观与地缘：中东地缘局势突发升级，波斯湾美军兵力投送加强、叙利亚油气控制权争夺 加剧，避险情绪升温；据美国财政部数据，美元指数回落至 99.8，美联储 2025 年完成三 次降息后，2026 年降息预期持续。世界黄金协会数据显示，2025 年全球央行净购金 1230 吨，中国央行连续 14 个月增持黄金，2025 年 12 月增持 3 万盎司。 市场分析：1 月 26 日亚盘期间现货黄金突破 5110 美元/盎司。金价的核心支撑为地缘避险 资金流入、央行持续购金及美元走弱，若中东局势进一步升级，金价或获更多资金面支 撑。短期压力来自金价突破 5000 美元/盎司历史新高后技术面超买，若美联储 1 月议息释 放鹰派信号，或对金价形成短期压制。 操作建议：建议重点关注中东地缘局势演变及美联储议息会议表态，以趋势跟踪为主，做 好仓位管控，避免追高操作。 白银 外盘价格:1 月 26 日亚盘期间，伦敦银现最高突破至 110 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银商业净空 持仓从 8 万手降至 5.5 万手。光伏等新能源领域用银需求 2025 年翻倍，全球矿产白银产量 较峰值下降 12%，全球白银 E ...

纯碱，切准 2026 年的脉搏 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 化工小组 研究员: 潘兆敏 从业资格号：F3064781 投资咨询号：Z0022343 初审： 张莎 从业资格号:F03088817 投资咨询证号:Z0019577 复审： 赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 本文主题，复盘 2025 年纯碱走势和价格背后的内在逻辑，为切 准 2026 年纯碱脉搏提供理论依据和逻辑支撑。 第一部分：纯碱 2025 年走势回顾和内在逻辑分析 回顾 2025 年，纯碱市场整体呈现趋势性下行格局，全年主要经 历两波行情。第一阶段为年初至 6 月底，价格自【1400，1600】元/ 吨区间震荡回落至【1150，1200】元/吨附近。第二阶段始于 7 月初， 价格自 1150 元/吨低点展开反弹，高点触及 1450-1530 元/吨区间， 此后再度转入下行通道，并于 12 月跌破 1100 元/吨，创出年内新低。 全年走势可概括为"下跌—反弹—再下跌"的弱势循环。 其内在逻辑清晰：行情主线是供需过剩背景下价格的趋势性回归， 其中供应强、需求弱、库存高构成核心压力。阶 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - From a fundamental perspective, the lithium carbonate market in 2026 is expected to show a tight - balance pattern with strong supply and demand. The supply side will have a clear division in regions and resource types, with domestic growth led by salt - lake lithium extraction and overseas by ore - based lithium projects. The demand side will be driven by the booming energy - storage market and the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new - energy heavy trucks, along with the stable growth of new - energy vehicle production and sales [2]. - From a technical perspective, given the previous sharp rise and overall bullish market sentiment, the possibility of a rapid and reverse decline in lithium carbonate prices is low. The current price is close to the first important high after the rebound following the decline of lithium carbonate futures, and it may take time to break through this level [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Lithium Carbonate Trend Analysis: V - shaped Reversal - In 2025, the lithium carbonate market showed a typical V - shaped trend, divided into a unilateral decline from January to June due to weak industry fundamentals and external policy shocks, and an upward - trending period after late June driven by policies and events [5]. - From January to June, the market was in a state of structural oversupply, with downstream new - energy vehicle growth slowing and energy - storage demand under - performing. Social inventory reached 96,000 tons by the end of April, the highest since 2021. After April, the market accelerated its decline due to the US tariff policy, and prices dropped below the break - even point [6]. - After late June, the market rebounded. In July, the "anti - involution" policy boosted sentiment. From late July to September, supply - side events strengthened the expectation of supply contraction, and prices first rose and then fell. After the National Day, the booming energy - storage demand drove prices above 100,000 yuan/ton, and in early December, a new round of upward trend began [7]. Lithium Carbonate Supply Side Capacity and Production - In 2026, the global new lithium carbonate production capacity is expected to be about 30 - 330,000 tons LCE, with a clear division in regions and resource types. Domestic capacity growth will mainly come from salt - lake lithium extraction, while overseas growth will be mainly from ore - based lithium projects. The actual capacity release depends on the price of lithium carbonate [9]. - In 2025, domestic lithium carbonate production increased strongly, with a cumulative output of 871,200 tons from January to November, a year - on - year increase of 44%. The growth was mainly driven by spodumene - based lithium extraction. In 2026, the domestic supply structure is expected to be further optimized, with salt - lake lithium extraction as the key incremental source, but the actual supply release still faces uncertainties [11][12]. Import - At the end of 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports remained stable, with an annual total of about 2.5 million tons. Imports from Argentina increased by 56%, while those from Chile decreased by 17%. In 2026, the import pattern is expected to shift from South - American dominance to diversified supply, with the total import volume expected to be between 2 - 2.5 million tons, but the growth rate may slow [14]. Inventory - Since August 2025, domestic lithium carbonate inventory has been continuously decreasing. In 2026, the market is expected to show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, with a tight balance", and the inventory center is expected to move down further and may show seasonal fluctuations [16]. Demand Side Energy Storage - From January to October 2025, the domestic energy - storage winning - bid capacity reached 148GWh, a year - on - year increase of 39%. In 2026, the energy - storage cell shipment is expected to reach 850GWh, and the annual demand for lithium carbonate in this field is expected to increase by more than 162,000 tons LCE. The global energy - storage demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 30% - 40% in 2026, with China contributing more than 40% [19]. New - energy Vehicles - From January to October 2025, China's new - energy vehicle market grew strongly, with production and sales increasing by more than 30% year - on - year, accounting for 46.7% of the total new - vehicle sales. Exports reached 2.65 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 54%. In 2026, new - energy vehicle production and sales are expected to continue to grow, driving up the demand for lithium carbonate [22][23]. New - energy Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the new - energy heavy - truck market in China grew strongly, with cumulative sales of 1.0423 million vehicles in the first 11 months, a year - on - year increase of 27%. In 2026, the market is expected to enter a stable development stage at a high level, and the penetration rate of new - energy heavy trucks is expected to exceed 30%, even reaching 35% - 40%, which will support the demand for lithium carbonate [24]. Cost Side - As of December 29, the forward spot price of Australian spodumene (5.5% - 6%) was $1680/ton, and the price of lithium - mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) was 1850 yuan/ton, with monthly increases of over 45%. The weighted cost of lithium carbonate is about 82,000 yuan/ton, which further strengthens the bottom support [28][29]. Summary - The environmental rectification and shutdown of Jiangxi's mica mines in 2025 was the key turning point for the lithium carbonate market from oversupply to tight balance. In 2026, the core contradiction in domestic supply lies in the resumption rhythm and intensity of lithium - mica mines in Jiangxi. Meanwhile, the explosive growth of energy - storage demand requires close tracking of policy implementation and actual demand fulfillment [3][30]. - Historically, the probability of price increases in the second half of the year is higher than in the first half. However, the market may show two scenarios in 2026, especially in the first half: either range - bound at the current high level or form a double - top pattern and then enter an adjustment phase. The depth and timing of subsequent corrections depend on the resumption progress of leading manufacturers and the actual fulfillment of energy - storage demand [3][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025/26, the global soybean supply remains in a loose pattern, with a slight decline in production and inventory. The trade pattern has changed, and the biodiesel policy is a key demand variable. In China, the supply pattern is supported by South American new - crop yields, and there may be a short - term supply tightening. The domestic pig industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and the price of soybean meal is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation" [2][3][4] - In 2026, the overall situation of soybean supply is expected to remain loose, but the weather in South American producing areas and the final output will be key variables. The pig price is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, which may boost the feed price. The price of soybean meal may show different trends in different quarters [37][38] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Annual Review of Soybean Meal - In 2025, the global soybean supply was in a loose cycle, which pressured the CBOT futures. Biodiesel policies supported the price floor. The Sino - US trade game dominated price fluctuations. The price of US soybeans fluctuated in the bottom range of 970 - 1080 cents per bushel. The domestic soybean meal also fluctuated in the bottom range, and the annual fluctuation range was 2800 - 3100 yuan per ton [6] 2. Global Supply and Demand (1) Global Supply - In 2025/26, the global soybean production remained at a high level but decreased by 461 million tons (a decrease of 1.07%) compared with 2024/25. The end - of - period inventory decreased slightly, and the stock - to - use ratio decreased slightly. The future may enter a de - stocking cycle [8] - For the US, the USDA in November lowered the 2025/26 US soybean production by 329.6 million tons (a decrease of 2.76%) compared with the same period last year, mainly due to a 7.1% decrease in the planting area. The future planting area may change depending on the Sino - US trade relationship and the soybean/corn price ratio [9] - In South America, Brazil's production growth rate slowed down. Factors such as rising production costs and geopolitical uncertainties restricted farmers' expansion willingness. Different institutions had different forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 production, but it was generally at a high level. The rainfall and temperature at the end of the year and the beginning of next year were the key variables for the final output. Argentina's 2025/26 production was expected to decline by 5.10% due to a reduction in the planting area and the impact of La Nina [10][12][13] (2) Global Consumption - In 2025/26, the global soybean export consumption remained stable, and the growth rate of crushing consumption slowed down. The Sino - US trade friction changed the trade pattern, and the biodiesel policy affected the construction of the phased bottom of the soybean price [19] - For US soybeans, the export was difficult. The Sino - US trade relationship affected the export volume. The implementation of the biodiesel policy was postponed, but the future blending target was set at a high level, which would drive the demand [20][21] - In South America, Brazil's soybean export was strong in 2025, but over - concentration of exports made it vulnerable. Argentina expanded its export channels through policy incentives and began to export soybean meal to China. If the export to China becomes normalized, the global supply chain pattern may change [22][23] 3. Domestic Supply and Demand (1) South American New - Crop Yields Support the Domestic Supply Pattern, with Possible Short - Term Supply Tightening - In 2025, China's soybean import pattern changed due to the Sino - US trade game. From January to November, the cumulative import of soybeans increased by 6.88% year - on - year, with Brazilian soybeans accounting for 73.88%. The recent raw material supply may be less than expected due to factors such as shipping efficiency and quarantine procedures. The supply pattern in 2026 depends on whether the South American harvest is good [24][26][27] (2) Diversified Imports Expand, and Argentine Soybean Meal Imports May Open New Channels - In 2025, China took the initiative in the Sino - US soybean trade game and actively expanded import channels. The "dual - source supply structure" of "mainly Brazil and supplemented by Argentina" was formed, which increased China's bargaining power. If soybean meal imports become normalized, the domestic pricing logic and trade model may change [29] (3) Terminal Livestock Supply is Expected to Tighten, and Prices are Expected to Enter a New Cycle - In 2025, the pig inventory remained high, the supply - demand contradiction intensified, and the pig price fluctuated at the bottom. In 2026, the supply pressure will be gradually released in the first half of the year, and the pig price is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, which will boost the feed price [31][33] 4. Outlook for the 2026 Soybean Meal Market - In 2026, the US interest rate may decline, and the weakening of the US dollar will help US agricultural product exports. Globally, the supply is expected to remain loose, but the final output in South America is the key factor. Domestically, if the South American output does not change much, the supply pattern of soybean meal may remain loose. The livestock industry may have a turning point in the second half of the year [37] - The weather and output in South American producing areas are key variables for the cost side. In the first quarter of next year, the price is sensitive to positive factors. In the second and third quarters, the supply pressure is the greatest. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern may change, and the price and basis may recover from the low level [38]