Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices declined slightly, and the implied volatility of corn options continued to fall [1][2]. - Soybean meal futures prices rose slightly, and the implied volatility of soybean meal options increased slightly [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data Statistics - Corn futures (C2509) closed at 2255 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.53%. The trading volume was 338,463 lots, a decrease of 26,786 lots, and the open interest was 659,407 lots, a decrease of 25,646 lots [3]. - Soybean meal futures (M2601) closed at 3094 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.52%. The trading volume was 609,803 lots, an increase of 82,719 lots, and the open interest was 1,650,480 lots, an increase of 49,993 lots [3]. 3.2 Options Market Data Statistics - Corn options had a trading volume of 164,762 lots, an increase of 53,766 lots. The volume PCR was 0.789, an increase of 0.193. The open interest was 497,389 lots, a decrease of 7,138 lots [8]. - Soybean meal options had a trading volume of 277,659 lots, an increase of 62,750 lots. The volume PCR was 0.467, a decrease of 0.056. The open interest was 1,063,962 lots, a decrease of 10,484 lots [8]. 3.3 Options Volatility Situation - The weighted implied volatility of corn options was 11.55%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points or 4.70%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 8.37%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.12 [17]. - The weighted implied volatility of soybean meal options was 17.01%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points or 4.21%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 11.15%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.02 [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices slightly declined, and the implied volatility of corn options slightly decreased [1][2] - Soybean meal futures prices continued to fall, and the implied volatility of soybean meal options significantly decreased [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data Statistics - Corn futures contract C2509 closed at 2302 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 0.73%, with a trading volume of 527,538 lots (a decrease of 219,383 lots) and an open interest of 794,329 lots (a decrease of 11,231 lots) [3] - Soybean meal futures contract M2509 closed at 2983 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or 0.23%, with a trading volume of 1,013,822 lots (a decrease of 6,756 lots) and an open interest of 1,468,086 lots (a decrease of 92,213 lots) [3] 3.2 Option Market Data Statistics - Corn options had a trading volume of 154,652 lots (a decrease of 55,177 lots), a volume PCR of 0.719 (an increase of 0.316), an open interest of 495,658 lots (an increase of 7,130 lots), and an open interest ratio of 0.494 (a decrease of 0.003) [8] - Soybean meal options had a trading volume of 370,429 lots (an increase of 63,872 lots), a volume PCR of 0.718 (an increase of 0.208), an open interest of 1,010,500 lots (an increase of 27,087 lots), and an open interest ratio of 0.508 (a decrease of 0.011) [8] 3.3 Option Volatility Situation - The weighted implied volatility of corn options was 13.98% (a decrease of 0.23 percentage points or 1.59%), and the 30 - day historical volatility was 8.44% with a 30 - day volatility quantile of 0.12 [18] - The weighted implied volatility of soybean meal options was 17.76% (a decrease of 1.65 percentage points or 8.49%), and the 30 - day historical volatility was 13.28% with a 30 - day volatility quantile of 0.09 [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices dropped slightly, while the implied volatility of corn options rebounded significantly. The futures main contract C2509 closed at 2321 yuan/ton, with an option trading volume of 156,367 lots, an open interest of 440,600 lots, a trading volume PCR of 0.832, and the option weighted implied volatility at 11.43% [1][2]. - Soybean meal futures prices continued to rise, and the implied volatility of soybean meal options increased substantially. The futures main contract M2509 closed at 3095 yuan/ton, with an option trading volume of 384,182 lots, an open interest of 898,113 lots, a trading volume PCR of 0.479, and the option weighted implied volatility at 18.30% [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data Statistics | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | C2509 | 2321 | -1 | -0.04 | 696,340 | 192,243 | 923,031 | -52,830 | | M2509 | 3095 | 9 | 0.29 | 1,166,151 | -14,759 | 1,838,499 | -12,733 | [3] 3.2 Option Market Data Statistics | Option Underlying | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Trading Volume PCR | PCR Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Open Interest PCR | PCR Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | 156,367 | 45,418 | 0.832 | 0.185 | 440,600 | 2,866 | 0.531 | -0.011 | | Soybean Meal | 384,182 | 52,110 | 0.479 | -0.106 | 898,113 | 22,626 | 0.615 | 0.011 | [8] 3.3 Option Volatility Situation | Variety | Option Weighted Implied Volatility (%) | Volatility Change (%) | Change Rate | 30 - Day Historical Volatility (%) | 30 - Day Volatility Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | 11.43 | 0.97 | 9.26% | 8.47 | 0.12 | | Soybean Meal | 18.30 | 2.02 | 12.38% | 11.46 | 0.03 | [17]

Report Overview - Report Title: PVC Futures Weekly Report (20250721 - 0725) [1] - Report Date: July 21, 2025 [3] - Research Institution: Anliang Futures Research Institute [3] - Industry: PVC Futures [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The fundamentals of PVC currently lack a clear driving force, and in the short - term, PVC is likely to fluctuate following market sentiment [4][5][7] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's PVC Market Review - **PVC Spot**: The domestic PVC price in East China was 4,840 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. International PVC prices in China CIF, Northwest Europe FOB, Southeast Asia CIF, and India CIF remained unchanged week - on - week at 700, 750, 660, and 720 US dollars/ton respectively. As of July 18, 55% of the market had a neutral outlook, 10% were bullish, and 35% were bearish [8] - **PVC Futures**: Last week, the closing price of the PVC main contract fluctuated between 5,010 - 4,934 yuan/ton, and the settlement price fluctuated between 4,985 - 4,944 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the closing price was 4,937 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 43 yuan/ton (a decline of 0.86%), and the settlement price was 4,957 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 56 yuan/ton (a decline of 1.12%). The basis was - 97 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton [10] 2. Supply and Demand Analysis - **PVC Enterprise Operating Rate**: Last week, the operating rate of PVC production enterprises was 77.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62% and a year - on - year increase of 7.19%. Among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.71%, a week - on - week increase of 0.50% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%, and the ethylene method was 71.95%, a week - on - week increase of 0.94% and a year - on - year increase of 12.74% [7][13] - **Social Inventory**: As of July 17, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% week - on - week to 657,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.15%. The inventory in East China was 600,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.55%. The inventory in South China was 57,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.04% and a year - on - year increase of 11.05% [7][15] - **PVC Downstream Enterprise Operating Rate**: As of July 18, the operating rate of PVC pipe enterprises was 33.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 10.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.65%. The operating rate of PVC profile enterprises was 34.55%, unchanged week - on - week and a year - on - year decrease of 25.18%. The operating rate of PVC film enterprises was 71.67%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.52% [7][17] 3. Cost and Gross Margin - **Cost**: As of July 18, the cost of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,933 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 96 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC was 5,579 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [19] - **Gross Margin**: As of July 18, the gross margin of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 315 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 130 yuan/ton, and the gross margin of ethylene - based PVC was - 595 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26 yuan/ton [7][19] 4. Price Spread and Structure - **Ethylene - Calcium Carbide Price Spread**: As of July 18, the ethylene - calcium carbide price spread was 210 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton [23] - **Near - and Far - Month Main Contract Price Spreads**: As of July 18, the 1 - 5 spread was - 204 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 323 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 119 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton [23] 5. Technical Analysis - Last week, the V2509 contract fluctuated weakly. The highest price during the week was 5,027 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 4,922 yuan/ton. The Bollinger Bands indicator's opening slightly contracted, and the futures mainly traded between the middle and upper bands. The RSI indicator mainly operated in the 50 - 80 range, indicating a bullish consolidation state [7][26]

Macroeconomy - Domestic policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures, with supply - side reform expectations rising in industries like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, and leading stocks' valuations being repaired [2] - Trump's tariff delay to August 1 eases short - term pressure, but long - term uncertainty may suppress foreign - trade - dependent sectors [2] - The domestic A - share market continues to rise, with broad - based indexes hitting new highs this year. Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.07%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.12%, and the SSE 50 Index rose 0.92%. Overall, large - cap stocks rose moderately, mid - cap stocks showed resilience, and small - cap stocks led the gains [2] - The mid - term trend of stock index futures is still biased towards volatile upward movement under low risk - free interest rates and policy -利好 expectations, but short - term pullback risks should be vigilant [2] Crude Oil - The low US dollar index supports oil prices, but the US non - farm payroll data reduces the possibility of a July interest rate cut, and the OPEC + July meeting has an expectation of accelerated production increase, so short - term oil prices will mainly fluctuate [3] - The IEA raises the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.1 million barrels per day. The OPEC + July meeting may increase production, so the long - term price center of crude oil will move down. However, the upcoming summer peak season provides some support for oil prices [3] - WTI main contract is expected to start a rebound around $65 per barrel [3] Gold - Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lead to mixed factors for gold prices. The market bets that the probability of a September interest rate cut is 65.4%, but the expectation of no action in July still accounts for 92.8%. Gold prices are under short - term pressure [4] - On July 11, Asian - session spot gold fluctuated higher, trading around $3350 per ounce [4] - Spot gold may test the resistance of $3342 per ounce. If it breaks through, it may rise to the range of $3357 - $3374. In the short term, it may maintain a high - level volatile state [6] Silver - On July 11, the international spot silver price continued to rise, breaking through $38 per ounce to reach $38.06 per ounce, hitting the highest level since 2012 [7] - The Fed's June meeting minutes show differences among officials on interest rate cuts. Trump's tariff delay causes supply - chain anxiety. The increase in Shanghai silver registered warrants indicates spot support [7] - If spot silver effectively breaks through $37.5, it may rise to the range of $38.8 - $40. Be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" of the Fed's July decision and inflation rebound pressure after the August tariff implementation [7] Chemicals PTA - The raw material PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the current PTA spot processing fee is at a relatively low level, so the short - term cost support for prices is strengthening. PTA supply pressure increases significantly, while demand is weak [8] - PTA will continue the range - bound trend in the short term [8] Ethylene Glycol - The overall ethylene glycol operating load and coal - based operating rate increase, but the whole process is in deep loss except for coal - based with a small profit. Low inventory supports prices, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the third quarter and other factors suppress the upward space [9] - The short - term price of ethylene glycol may maintain a range - bound state between 4200 - 4400 yuan per ton [9] PVC - PVC production capacity utilization rate changes slightly, demand from downstream products enterprises has no obvious improvement, and social inventory increases. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10][11] PP - The average polypropylene capacity utilization rate and production decrease slightly, downstream industry average opening rate drops, and port inventory decreases. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [12] Plastic - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises decreases, the average opening rate of downstream products has a slight change, and the inventory of production enterprises increases. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash supply is relatively stable, inventory increases, and demand is average. The market has limited new driving forces, and it is in a bottom - range - bound trend. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range - bound thinking in the short term [14] Glass - Glass supply increases slightly, inventory continues to decline, and demand is weak. The market fundamentals have limited driving forces, and the disk fluctuates greatly affected by macro - sentiment and enterprise price increases. It is recommended to treat it with a slightly bullish and volatile thinking in the short term [15][16] Rubber - Rubber prices are affected by macro factors. The supply is in a loose state as the main producing areas have good weather and new rubber production increases. The downstream tire opening rate decreases, and trade negotiations affect export orders. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream opening rate and the rebound height [17] Methanol - The methanol futures price decreases, port inventory increases, the domestic operating rate drops due to device maintenance, and the demand of MTO devices increases slightly while traditional downstream demand is weak. The short - term futures price will be range - bound [18] Agricultural Products Corn - The US 2025 corn planting area is slightly lower than expected, which supports the futures price. The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain transition period, and the price fluctuates downward affected by wheat substitution and policy - grain auctions. The downstream demand is weak [19] - The short - term corn futures price will test the support around 2300 yuan per ton [19] Peanut - The estimated domestic peanut planting area in 2025 is expected to increase year - on - year. Currently, the market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak, with prices difficult to have large fluctuations. The short - term futures price will be range - bound [20] Cotton - The US cotton production forecast is revised downward. The domestic new - year cotton supply is expected to be loose, but the short - term supply is expected to be tight before the new cotton harvest. The demand is weak. The short - term cotton price will run with a slightly bullish and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 14000 yuan per ton [21] Soybean Meal - Internationally, tariff policies and weather are the main driving factors for prices. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is prominent, and the demand is strong. The short - term soybean meal futures price will be range - bound [22] Soybean Oil - Internationally, attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean oil is large, and it is in the consumption off - season. The short - term soybean oil futures price will be range - bound [23] Pig - The long - term pig market will continue to release production capacity. In the short term, the slowdown of supply rhythm supports prices, while terminal consumption is weak. The short - term futures price will run with a slightly bullish and volatile trend, and it is expected to test the 14500 yuan per ton level [24][25] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient, demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price will be in a low - level volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Metals Shanghai Copper - The US copper import tariff issue causes large fluctuations in US copper prices. Domestic policies support the market, but raw material problems and inventory changes make the copper market more complex. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the retest strength of the moving - average system [27] Shanghai Aluminum - Trump's tariff policy causes fluctuations in the metal market. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is high, demand is in the off - season, and inventory begins to accumulate. It is recommended that aggressive investors conduct range operations, and conservative investors wait and see [28] Alumina - The supply of bauxite is tight, and the demand for alumina is rigid but the procurement rhythm slows down. The inventory is at a relatively low level in the past four years, and the main contract may test the pressure level of 3300 yuan per ton [30] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported by tight scrap - aluminum supply, but the supply is in excess, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is increasing. The 2511 contract will maintain a range - bound state [31] Lithium Carbonate - The cost of lithium carbonate is supported by stable lithium - ore prices and large inventory reduction. Supply is at a high level, demand is in the off - season, and the futures price stops rising. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait for signals [32] Industrial Silicon - The production of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in July. Although large - scale enterprises' production cuts reduce the supply surplus, the supply is still large. The demand varies in different fields. The short - term futures price will be slightly bullish and volatile, but the long - term supply - demand imbalance may intensify [33] Polysilicon - The supply of polysilicon shows structural differentiation, and the demand side has strong bargaining power. The market trading is light. The short - term price may be slightly bullish and volatile, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of price decline [34][35] Black Metals Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel disk is in a weak and volatile state. The raw - material cost supports prices, supply pressure exists, demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory decreases slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the low - level range [36] Rebar - The rebar disk rebounds strongly due to improved macro - sentiment. The cost support is strengthened, demand increases slightly in the off - season, inventory is low, and supply is expected to shrink. It is recommended to maintain a slightly bullish thinking and hold long positions [37] Hot - Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil disk rebounds and then consolidates. Similar to rebar, it is affected by macro - sentiment, cost support, and supply - demand factors. It is recommended to maintain a slightly bullish thinking and hold long positions [38] Iron Ore - The global iron - ore shipment volume decreases in July, demand is weak in the off - season, and port inventory is at a high level. The main contract will be slightly bullish and volatile in the short term [39] Coal - The supply of coking coal improves marginally but the increase is limited. The demand for terminal steel supports coal prices, and inventory decreases. The supply of coke is tight as inventory is reduced, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm increases. The main contracts of coking coal and coke will be slightly bullish and volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [40][41]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: Domestic policies focus on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures, which may boost the new energy growth sector in the short term. The market expects pro - growth policies from the July Politburo meeting. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but may suppress trade - dependent sectors in the long run. Stock index futures are expected to show an upward trend in the medium term but are subject to policy implementation and external risks [2]. - **Crude Oil**: The low dollar index supports oil prices, but factors like reduced July rate - cut expectations and potential OPEC+ production increase may keep prices oscillating in the short term. WTI is expected to rebound around $65 per barrel [3]. - **Gold**: Trump's tariff policies and strong employment data have cooled expectations of an early Fed rate cut. Gold ETFs have seen significant inflows. If gold fails to return above $3300 per ounce, it may test June lows [4][6]. - **Silver**: Strong US employment data and tariff - related inflation concerns have influenced the market. The supply - demand gap in 2025 is expected, but weak industrial demand and high inventories limit price increases. Attention should be paid to the $36.5 per ounce support level [7]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, and supply pressure is increasing. Demand is sluggish, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is in a tight supply - demand balance with emerging inventory pressure. Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $4200 per ton support level [9]. - **PVC**: Fundamentals have not improved significantly, and prices will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10][11]. - **PP**: With no obvious fundamental drivers, prices will follow market sentiment in the short term [12][13]. - **Plastic**: The fundamentals show no significant improvement, and prices will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The market has limited new drivers, and prices are expected to oscillate in the bottom range in the short term [15]. - **Glass**: Market fundamentals have limited drivers, and prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [16]. - **Rubber**: The supply is abundant due to good weather in major producing areas. The demand from the tire industry is weak. The market will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the downstream start - up rate [17][18]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a weak supply - demand balance. Port inventory accumulation and weak demand may suppress price increases. Prices will oscillate in a range in the short term [19]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Corn**: The USDA report has limited positive impact. The domestic market is in a transition period, and prices are oscillating downward due to factors like wheat substitution. The futures price may test the $2300 per ton support level [20][21]. - **Peanut**: The expected increase in planting area may pressure far - month prices. The current market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and prices will oscillate in the short term [22]. - **Cotton**: The US production forecast is revised downward, and the domestic supply is expected to be abundant. The price will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $14000 per ton pressure level [23]. - **Pig**: Supply - demand imbalance leads to high uncertainty in the market. Terminal consumption needs continuous attention [24]. - **Egg**: Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Prices will oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to farmers' culling intentions [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal**: Tariffs and weather are the main drivers. Supply pressure is high, and prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [27]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to US weather and MPOB report. Supply pressure is large, and prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Metals**: - **Copper**: Trump's tariff threats and domestic policies have complex impacts. Short - term short positions can be considered [29]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff policies and seasonal factors pressure prices. Aggressive investors can trade in a range, while conservative investors should wait and see [30]. - **Alumina**: Ore supply issues and low inventory support prices, and the 2509 contract may be strong [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support and inventory accumulation coexist. The 2511 contract will oscillate in a range [32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. Prices may be strong in the short term [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is high, and prices may be strong in the short term but face over - supply pressure in the long term [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is in a wait - and - see state. Prices may be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $40,000 per ton pressure level [35]. - **Black Metals**: - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support exists, but supply pressure and weak demand remain. Prices will oscillate in a wide range at a low level [36]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Macro - sentiment improvement and cost support drive prices up. A short - term long - bias strategy can be adopted [37][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Import cost supports prices, but demand is under pressure. The main contract will oscillate in a range [39]. - **Coal**: Coking coal is weakly stable, and the coke main contract may be strong. Attention should be paid to steel mill inventory and policy implementation [40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution, which may boost new energy stocks. Market expects pro - growth policies from the July Politburo meeting. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but affects trade - dependent sectors. Stock index futures are expected to rise in the medium term but are subject to risks [2]. Crude Oil - Low dollar index supports prices, but reduced rate - cut expectations and potential OPEC+ production increase limit upward movement. WTI may rebound around $65 per barrel [3]. Gold - Trump's tariff policies and strong employment data cool rate - cut expectations. Gold ETFs have large inflows. Gold price may test June lows if it fails to return above $3300 per ounce [4][6]. Silver - Strong employment data and tariff - related inflation concerns affect the market. Supply - demand gap in 2025, but weak industrial demand and high inventories limit price increases. Attention to $36.5 per ounce support [7]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, supply increases, and demand is sluggish [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Tight supply - demand balance with inventory pressure. Weak in the short term, attention to $4200 per ton support [9]. - **PVC**: Fundamentals unchanged, prices follow market sentiment [10][11]. - **PP**: No fundamental drivers, prices follow market sentiment [12][13]. - **Plastic**: No improvement in fundamentals, prices follow market sentiment [14]. - **Soda Ash**: Limited new drivers, prices oscillate in the bottom range [15]. - **Glass**: Limited drivers, prices oscillate widely [16]. Rubber - Supply is abundant due to good weather, demand from the tire industry is weak. Market oscillates, attention to downstream start - up rate [17][18]. Methanol - Supply - demand balance is weak. Port inventory and weak demand suppress prices. Prices oscillate in a range [19]. Agricultural Products - **Corn**: USDA report has limited impact. Domestic market in transition, prices down due to substitution. Futures may test $2300 per ton support [20][21]. - **Peanut**: Expected increase in planting area pressures far - month prices. Current supply - demand is weak, prices oscillate [22]. - **Cotton**: US production forecast revised down, domestic supply abundant. Prices oscillate, attention to $14000 per ton pressure [23]. - **Pig**: Supply - demand imbalance, high uncertainty, attention to terminal consumption [24]. - **Egg**: Supply sufficient, demand weak. Prices oscillate at a low level, attention to farmers' culling intentions [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal**: Tariffs and weather are drivers. Supply pressure is high, prices may oscillate weakly [27]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention to US weather and MPOB report. Supply pressure is large, prices may oscillate weakly [28]. Metals - **Copper**: Trump's tariff threats and domestic policies have complex impacts. Short - term short positions can be considered [29]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff policies and seasonality pressure prices. Aggressive investors can trade in a range, conservative investors wait and see [30]. - **Alumina**: Ore supply issues and low inventory support prices, 2509 contract may be strong [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support and inventory accumulation coexist. 2511 contract oscillates in a range [32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Cost support strengthens, demand is weak. Prices may be strong in the short term [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is high, prices may be strong in the short term but face over - supply pressure [34]. - **Polysilicon**: Market is in a wait - and - see state. Prices may be strong in the short term, attention to $40,000 per ton pressure [35]. Black Metals - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support exists, but supply pressure and weak demand remain. Prices oscillate in a wide range at a low level [36]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Macro - sentiment improvement and cost support drive prices up. Short - term long - bias strategy [37][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Import cost supports prices, but demand is under pressure. Main contract oscillates in a range [39]. - **Coal**: Coking coal is weakly stable, coke main contract may be strong. Attention to steel mill inventory and policy implementation [40].

Group 1: Macro - The domestic policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures. The upcoming July Politburo meeting is expected to introduce growth - stabilizing policies. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but leaves long - term uncertainty for trade - dependent sectors [2] - The four major stock index futures contracts closed up, with IM performing the strongest. The market sentiment is warm, but the trading volume shrank by 89.1 billion yuan, showing cautious chasing sentiment. Mid - term breakthrough needs fundamental support [2] - For unilateral strategies, focus on long opportunities in small and medium - cap indexes, beware of basis fluctuations. For arbitrage strategies, there may be IM/IC reverse arbitrage opportunities due to the convergence of deep discounts in far - month contracts [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The low dollar index supports oil prices, but the US non - farm data reduces the possibility of a July interest rate cut and the OPEC+ July meeting has expectations of accelerated production increase, so oil prices will fluctuate in the short term [3] - Trump's tweet and potential OPEC+ production increase put oil prices in a relatively weak position, but the upcoming summer peak season provides some support. Market expectations for summer demand are pessimistic [3] - Pay attention to the support level of around $65 per barrel for WTI [3] Group 3: Gold - The June non - farm data basically rules out a July interest rate cut. Trump's tariff policy and central bank gold - buying behavior support gold prices in the long term [4] - In the short term, trade risks and high - interest rate prospects weaken gold's appeal, but in the long term, the "Big and Beautiful Act" and tariff uncertainties enhance its hedging value [5] - Focus on the battle around the $3350 per ounce multi - empty dividing line, with support around $3300 per ounce. Pay attention to the Fed's June meeting minutes [5] Group 4: Silver - On July 8, Asian session, spot silver opened at $36.769 per ounce and maintained a narrow - range oscillation [6] - The US economic recovery is weak, tariff policies increase uncertainty, but Indian physical investment and industrial demand support silver prices. The gold - silver ratio has reached a new low [6] - In the short term, pay attention to the support in the range of $36.60 - $36.45 per ounce. Policy games before August 1 may boost silver prices [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4805 yuan/ton. Cost support is weak, and the supply pressure has increased significantly. Demand is sluggish with a negative outlook [7] - It will be in a short - term weak consolidation. Pay attention to raw material disturbances and downstream production cuts [7] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4347 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance with inventory pressure. It will oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - Be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports. Aggressive investors can short on rallies [8] PVC - The spot price in East China has decreased. Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventory has increased [9][10] - The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10] PP - The spot prices in different regions have decreased. Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand has weakened slightly, and inventory has decreased [11] - The fundamentals have not improved, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [12] Plastic - The spot prices in different regions have decreased. Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has changed slightly, and inventory has decreased [13] - The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [13] Soda Ash - The spot price in Shahe remains unchanged. Supply has decreased due to more maintenance, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14] - It is recommended to adopt a bottom - range oscillation strategy in the short term [14] Glass - The spot price in Shahe remains unchanged. Supply has increased, inventory has decreased slightly, and demand is weak [15] - It is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy in the short term [15] Rubber - The spot prices of different types of rubber are provided. New rubber supply has increased, and raw material prices have declined. Demand from the tire industry is weak [16] - It will oscillate with the market, and the rebound height may be limited. Pay attention to downstream tire开工 rates [16] Methanol - The spot prices in different regions remain unchanged. The futures price has decreased, port inventory has increased, supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand is weak [17] - The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory accumulation and Iranian plant resumption [17] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The spot prices in different regions are provided. The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is in a new - old grain transition period. Demand is weak [18][19] - The futures price will test the support level of around 2300 yuan/ton in the short term [19] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions are provided. The expected increase in planting area may pressure far - month prices. The current market is in a supply - demand weak pattern [20] - The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short - term range. Pay attention to the support around 8000 yuan/ton [20] Cotton - The spot prices are provided. The US production forecast has been revised down, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose. The current supply is tightening, but demand is weak [21] - The cotton price will oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to market speculation [21] Pig - The spot price has decreased. Supply has increased as farmers are more willing to sell, and demand is weak due to high temperatures and lack of holidays [22] - The 2509 contract has high uncertainty. Pay attention to pig slaughtering [22] Egg - The spot price has decreased. Supply is sufficient as the number of laying hens increases, and demand is weak. The price is under pressure [23] - The price will oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to farmers' culling intentions and it is recommended to wait and see [23] Soybean Meal - The spot prices in different regions are provided. International factors are tariffs and weather, and domestic supply pressure is high while demand is strong [24] - The price may oscillate weakly in the short term [24] Soybean Oil - The spot prices in different regions are provided. Internationally, pay attention to US soybean growing weather and MPOB report. Domestically, supply pressure is high and demand is in the off - season [25] - The price may oscillate weakly in the short term [25] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The spot price has decreased. Trump's tariff threat on copper has caused fluctuations in US copper. Domestic policies support the market, but raw material issues and inventory changes complicate the market [26] - The copper price has fallen from above 80,000 yuan. Consider removing defenses on rallies [26] Shanghai Aluminum - The spot price has decreased. The high probability of a Fed rate hike in July and tariffs suppress prices. Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is starting to accumulate [27] - Aggressive investors can conduct range operations, and conservative investors should wait and see [27] Alumina - The spot price is basically stable. Trade policy uncertainty increases. Supply is affected by bauxite shortages, demand is stable but the procurement rhythm has slowed, and inventory costs have decreased [28][29] - The over - supply expectation remains, and it may be stimulated by news in the short term [29] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price remains unchanged. Cost provides support, supply is facing over - capacity, demand will enter the off - season, and inventory is increasing [30] - The 2511 contract will maintain a range oscillation [30] Lithium Carbonate - The spot prices remain unchanged. Cost support has strengthened, supply is stable at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [31] - Aggressive investors can try long positions near the moving average, and conservative investors should wait and see [31] Industrial Silicon - The spot prices have increased. Supply is expected to remain high, and demand varies in different sectors. It will oscillate strongly in the short term but face over - supply pressure in the long term [32] - Adopt a range operation strategy and wait for key support and pressure levels [32] Polysilicon - The spot prices have increased. Supply is structurally differentiated, demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. It may oscillate strongly in the short term [33][34] - Pay attention to the 40,000 - yuan pressure level. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking [34] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The spot price remains unchanged. The cost is supported, supply pressure exists, demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory has decreased slightly [35] - It will oscillate in a wide range at a low level [35] Rebar - The spot price remains unchanged. Macro sentiment has improved, cost support has strengthened, demand has increased slightly in the off - season, inventory is low, and supply is expected to shrink [36] - Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [36] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price has decreased. Similar to rebar, macro factors drive the market, cost support is strong, demand has increased slightly, and supply is expected to shrink [37] - Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [37] Iron Ore - The spot prices are provided. Import volume has increased slightly, demand is facing short - term contraction due to environmental policies, port inventory has decreased slightly, and the market has large differences [38] - The main contract will oscillate in a range in the short term, and investors should be cautious [38] Coal - The spot price of coke has increased. For coking coal, production has increased, inventory has decreased in some areas, and prices have rebounded slightly. For coke, production losses have increased, demand has decreased slightly, and inventory has decreased [39][40] - Coking coal will remain weakly stable, and the coke main contract may oscillate strongly. Pay attention to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [40]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current corn market is in the window period between old and new grains. With the continuous consumption of surplus grains and the decline in imports, a pattern of tight supply in the short - term has emerged. - Imported corn auctions have supplemented the market, and the narrowing price difference between wheat and corn has enhanced the substitution effect in the feed field, suppressing the upward momentum of corn prices. - Downstream procurement remains cautious. Livestock enterprises, restricted by low profits, mostly replenish stocks as needed, while deep - processing enterprises reduce their operating rates due to losses. Overall, consumption has limited ability to boost prices. - From a technical perspective, the main corn futures contract is in an upward channel but is under pressure from the upper edge of the channel and has been testing support levels downward. Without a trend - driving force in supply and demand, the futures price is expected to gradually decline to the key integer level of 2,300 yuan/ton, which may trigger a technical rebound at that time [5][39]. 3. Summary by Directory Corn Market Structure - As of the end of June, the corn index price first rose and then fell. After reaching a low of 2,300 yuan/ton at the end of May, it rebounded, tested the previous high of 2,380 yuan/ton but failed to break through, and then declined again to test the support at 2,300 yuan/ton. It is expected to form a double - top structure. - The corn market is in the window period between old and new grains. The decreasing inventory in domestic main producing areas supports traders' reluctance to sell, but affected by the wheat substitution effect and policy - grain auctions, the price is oscillating downward. - Downstream procurement is cautious, resulting in weak consumption. Livestock enterprises purchase as needed due to low profits, and corn deep - processing enterprises reduce their operating rates due to losses. The main corn futures contract is in an upward channel, and in the short - term, it is retesting the support around 2,330 yuan/ton [7]. - The overall term - structure shows that the September contract is at a discount to the January contract, and the January contract is at a discount to the May contract [8]. Market行情Analysis Supply Side - Global corn supply and demand tightened according to the June USDA report. The old - crop exports were increased by 50 million bushels, and the ending stocks were correspondingly reduced. For the new - crop, the ending stocks were also reduced by 50 million bushels. The new - crop ending stocks were lower than expected, and the report was slightly bullish. The expected 2025/2026 US corn production is 15.82 billion bushels, with a planted area of 95.3 million acres and a yield of 181 bushels per acre, remaining unchanged from May. The expected ending stocks are 1.75 billion bushels, lower than the previous forecast and the Reuters average. Globally, the 2025/2026 production is increased to 1.266 billion tons, and the ending stocks are 275.236 million tons, which is also bullish [11]. - Tariff policies have tightened imports, which is beneficial to the confidence of the domestic corn market. Although the overall import of agricultural products from the US is expected to decline, China has diversified its grain import sources since 2018. The proportion of US - imported corn and wheat in China's total imports is less than 20%, so the impact of tariffs is relatively limited, but the impact on US - imported sorghum, which accounts for over 50%, may be relatively large. In 2025, China's corn imports have dropped significantly. From January to May, the cumulative import was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93%. Importing US corn is not cost - effective [15][16]. - Corn is in a policy - sensitive period, and the expectation of imported corn auctions has been fulfilled. On July 1, imported corn was auctioned in Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and other regions, with a transaction rate of 97%. On July 4, the second auction was held nationwide through public bidding, with a larger scale. The transaction rate was 85.95%. The imported corn supply has supplemented the market, but the future frequency, scale, and price of auctions will affect the market [21]. - The narrowing price difference between wheat and corn may lead to a decline in corn prices. Corn is in a supply vacuum period, and new wheat prices are at 1.21 - 1.23 yuan per catty. The wheat - corn price difference in Henan is - 40 yuan/ton and in Hebei is - 5 yuan/ton. Wheat is more cost - effective, so many enterprises are using wheat to replace corn in the feed field [22]. Demand Side - The reduction of pig production capacity is slow. As of May 2025, the number of breeding sows was 40.42 million, 3.6% higher than the normal level. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 119.72 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 26.26 yuan per head. The pig market may face double pressure from cost and supply. Although there is a rigid demand for feed, there is little room for growth [23]. - Deep - processing enterprises are in a loss situation, which limits the demand for corn. Due to weak macroeconomic growth and poor downstream demand, the profit of deep - processing enterprises is not good. As of July 5, the operating rate of starch enterprises was 51.57%, the corn processing volume was 789,000 tons, and the processing profit was - 62.97 yuan per ton. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing [37]. Market Outlook The current situation of the corn market is as described in the core viewpoints, with a tight supply pattern in the short - term, supplemented by imported corn auctions, and a limited ability of consumption to boost prices. The futures price is expected to decline to 2,300 yuan/ton and may rebound technically [39].

Macroeconomy - The central bank plans to intensify monetary policy regulation, maintain ample liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. It aims to explore the normalization of "swap facilities and stock repurchase and increase re - loans" and support securities, funds, and insurance companies to participate in market stability. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7% (+0.2%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5% (+0.2%). However, the PMI of small enterprises dropped to 47.3% (-2.0%)[2] - The closing prices of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.33%, and 0.28% respectively compared to the previous day. The basis of IM/IC expanded significantly, while that of IH/IF changed moderately[2] - The four major indices show a pattern of multiple strengths and few weaknesses. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on small and medium - cap index futures on dips, and the opportunity of band trading for large - cap index futures[2] Crude Oil - The situation in the Middle East has eased. The market is speculating about the Fed's potential interest rate cut in July and the expected production increase at the OPEC+ meeting in July. There are reports that Saudi Arabia may seek to increase production to regain lost market share[3] - Trump tweeted that he would lower oil prices and encourage the US to invest heavily in new oil fields. The number of US oil wells has dropped to the lowest level since November 2021. After the cooling of the Iran - Israel conflict, the risk premium has declined significantly, leading to a large - scale decline in crude oil prices. Although the summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US crude oil and refined product inventories continue to decline while refining activities increase, providing some support to oil prices, in the long - term, the price center of crude oil will move downward[3] - Attention should be paid to the support level of around $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract[3] Gold - In May, the year - on - year core PCE was 2.7% (previous value 2.6%, expected 2.6%), and the month - on - month was 0.2% (previous value 0.1%); the year - on - year overall PCE was 2.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, both in line with expectations. The final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June was 60.7 (previous value 60.3), and the long - term inflation expectation dropped to 4%. The progress of trade negotiations has weakened the demand for hedging[4] - Powell's congressional testimony released a dovish stance, indicating that if tariffs do not cause a sharp rise in inflation, there may be an interest rate cut in September. The market's pricing of the probability of an interest rate cut in September has risen to 78% (CME data), but there are still differences in the stickiness of inflation[4] - Spot gold may test the resistance area of $3295 - $3306 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and PMI data in June and the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill[6] Silver - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the Senate on June 29. The CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by $2.77 trillion in the next decade. The Fed has kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. The median interest rate expectation for 2025 is 3.9% (the same as in March), and the expectations for 2026 - 2027 have been raised to 3.6%/3.4%. Seven voting members support no interest rate cut in 2025, and Powell emphasized that "tariff inflation is not a one - time shock"[7] - There is a certain possibility that the Fed will lower the policy interest rate in the second half of the year. When the Fed's easing expectation increases, the international silver price will show a stronger trend. The key support level is around $35 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data and PMI in June and be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" that may suppress the easing expectation[7] Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 190 yuan/ton. In July, PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 78.61%, a decrease of 2.94% month - on - month. The spot processing fee is 427.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.674 yuan/ton month - on - month. In mid - to - late June, 1.8 million tons of equipment entered the maintenance cycle (accounting for 3.2% of the total capacity), supporting the short - term de - stocking process. However, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in July[8] - The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.63%, a decrease of 0.61% month - on - month, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load is 59.01%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month, and the terminal order days are 9.06 days, a decrease of 0.36 days month - on - month. The textile and clothing industry is entering the off - season, the demand side is continuously sluggish, and some enterprises have the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being[8] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 57 yuan/ton. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 60.4%, an increase of 1.4% month - on - month, and the coal - based operating rate is 57.26%, an increase of 0.95% month - on - month. The weekly output is 36.97 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports in East China has decreased by 3.13 tons to 50.57 tons and has been de - stocking for three consecutive weeks[9] - Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, 3 sets of equipment with a total capacity of 1.35 million tons in Iran have stopped production, while the restart plans of Saudi and Malaysian devices have boosted the import expectation. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load have both decreased, and the textile market has entered the off - season with some terminal industries having the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and the price will mainly move in a range. Radical investors can go short on rallies, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports[9] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month[10] - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 78.09%, a decrease of 0.53% month - on - month and 1.64% year - on - year. The domestic downstream products enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 26, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.03% to 57.52 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 38.06% year - on - year. The PVC fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price will still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[10][11] PP - The mainstream prices of PP raffia in North China, East China, and South China are 7174 yuan/ton, 7176 yuan/ton, and 7298 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton[12] - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene last week was 79.30%, a decrease of 0.54% month - on - month. The domestic polypropylene production was 78.92 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with last week, a growth rate of 0.23%, and an increase of 14.52 tons compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 22.55%. The average start - up rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05%. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises was 58.50 tons, a decrease of 2.26 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.72%. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[12] Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 7354 yuan/ton, 7521 yuan/ton, and 7614 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 22 yuan/ton, 42 yuan/ton, and 23 yuan/ton[14] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points compared with the previous period. The average start - up rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.48% compared with the previous period. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 44.82 tons, a decrease of 5.12 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%, and the inventory trend continued to decline. The current fundamentals of plastics have not improved significantly, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[14] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 82.21%, a decrease of 4.25% month - on - month, and the soda ash production was 71.68 tons, a decrease of 3.69 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.90%. There were device shutdowns for maintenance in Qinghai and Shaanxi, and the production of Inner Mongolia Boyuan was gradually stabilizing. The supply side still has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the summer maintenance situation[15] - Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 176.69 tons, an increase of 4.02 tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 2.33%. The social inventory is showing a downward trend, with the total amount approaching 280,000 tons, a decrease of more than 30,000 tons. The demand side performance is average. The middle and lower reaches replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. The soda ash market has limited new driving forces except for the reduction in supply. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, inventory changes, device maintenance, and unexpected disturbances[15] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1130 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The operating rate of float glass last week was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.26% month - on - month, and the weekly glass production was 109.09 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.24%. The glass production line has changed frequently recently, and the supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production line[16] - Last week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 69.216 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight - boxes month - on - month, a decline of 0.96%, and the inventory has decreased slightly but the amplitude is limited. The demand side is still weak, and there is no positive driving force. The glass market has limited driving forces, and it is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in enterprise inventory, production line changes, and market sentiment[16] Rubber - The spot prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13,950 yuan/ton, 19,550 yuan/ton, 14,600 yuan/ton, and 13,600 yuan/ton respectively. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are 66.09 baht/kg for RSS3, 55.5 baht/kg for latex, 47.95 baht/kg for cup lump, and 61.77 baht/kg for raw rubber[17] - There is an expectation of a缓和 in the trade war, and the Fed has shown some signs of a possible interest rate cut in July. Rubber is in a rebound window with improved sentiment. The domestic whole - latex has started to be harvested, and the production areas in Yunnan have fully started harvesting, while the latex in Hainan has started to increase in volume. The Southeast Asian production areas have fully started harvesting, and the supply is generally loose. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. The start - up rate of downstream tire enterprises has decreased for semi - steel tires and increased slightly for all - steel tires. The market is speculating on macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US tariff collection on automobiles and household appliances may seriously suppress the global demand for rubber. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of the rubber downstream[17] Methanol - The spot price in Zhejiang is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in Xinjiang is 1625 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Anhui is 2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is 2384 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with the previous trading day[18] - The total port inventory has increased to 67.05 tons, an increase of 8.41 tons compared with the previous period. The domestic methanol industry operating rate has reached 91.31%. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the reconstruction work in Iran has started, and the shut - down devices are expected to gradually resume production. However, the problem of natural gas shortage in Iran may continue until winter, and there is still uncertainty in the far - month supply. The start - up rate of MTO devices has dropped to 87.41%, and the start - up rate of MTBE has rebounded to 64.40%. The demand for traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether is still weak. The price of steam coal is stable and slightly strong, but it has limited support for the cost of methanol. The short - term futures price will mainly fluctuate. After the geopolitical conflict eases, attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's supply recovery and the accumulation of domestic inventory[18] Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June supply and demand report lowered the global and US ending inventories, but the overall support of the report is limited. The domestic corn market is in the window period of the alternation of old and new grains, and the remaining grain is being continuously consumed. The decreasing inventory in the main production areas has supported the reluctance of traders to sell. However, affected by the substitution effect of wheat and the news of policy grain auctions, the upward momentum of prices may be weakened. The downstream procurement of corn is cautious, and the consumption is weak. The low breeding profit has led to the on - demand procurement of breeding enterprises, and the low operating rate of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses has limited the boosting effect on downstream demand[19] - The main corn contract is in an upward channel, but it is under pressure from the resistance of the upward channel in the short term and has retraced. Attention should be paid to the support level of 2350 yuan/ton at the lower edge of the channel[20] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions vary. Currently, it is the peanut planting season, and the market expects that the domestic peanut planting area will increase year - on - year in 2025. If the weather is normal during this period, the peanut price in the far - month may be under pressure. In the short term, the peanut market has entered the inventory consumption period, and the import of peanuts has decreased, resulting in a low inventory level in each link of the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the low inventory may push the peanut price up due to the replenishment demand[21] -