Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the economy will continue to maintain a mild recovery trend. With the strengthening of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments of macro policies, the overall market confidence will be boosted. The steel price will be jointly driven by the domestic macro - friendly market and the marginal improvement of fundamentals, showing a relatively strong oscillation. The annual steel price may first decline and then rise in an "N" shape, with the price fluctuating in the range of [2800, 3800] and the core critical point around 3200. The overall annual strategy is to buy on dips during peak seasons and policy windows [2][33]. Summary of Each Section 2025 Steel Market Review - The 2025 steel market was volatile, with the price center gradually declining. It showed an inverted "N" shape due to the alternation of strong policy stimulus and weak fundamentals. The rebar futures price went through three stages: a first - round decline from January to early June, a retaliatory rebound from June to July, and an oscillatory bottom - grinding from late August to December [4]. - In the first stage (January - early June 2025), weak fundamentals led to a unilateral decline. Slow post - holiday construction site resumption, poor funds, a deep - adjusted real - estate market, and US tariff increases hit the market, causing a 14.7% drop in the rebar futures index and a nearly 500 - point decline in the weighted index [7]. - In the second stage (June - July 2025), the "anti - involution" policy and coal production restrictions drove a 15.4% increase in the rebar futures index and a nearly 450 - point rise in the weighted index [8]. - In the third stage (late August - December 2025), the rebar futures index oscillated in the range of [3000, 3300] due to weak peak - season demand, policy fulfillment, and weak cost support [10]. Macro Analysis Macro Data Analysis - In December 2025, China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points month - on - month, returning to the expansion range. The production index was 51.7%, the new order index was 50.8%, and the new export order index was 49%. The raw material purchase price index was 53.1%, and the ex - factory price index was 48.9% [12]. Central Economic Work Conference Direction Guidance - The 2026 economic work continues the "seeking progress while maintaining stability" principle but emphasizes "improving quality and efficiency". Fiscal and monetary policies are more refined and practical, focusing on expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and promoting economic growth through innovation and reform [15][16]. Fundamental Analysis Steel Supply - Side Analysis - Cost and profit: In 2025, the overall profitability of steel mills was better than in 2024, with an average annual profit of about 100 yuan/ton. The profit growth mainly came from raw material price drops. In 2026, the profit pressure may increase [19]. - Production: In 2026, steel supply is expected to run smoothly. By mid - December 2025, the iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased by 3.17% year - on - year, and the scrap steel daily consumption of 255 steel mills increased by 8.2% year - on - year. It is estimated that the total domestic crude steel demand in 2026 will decline by 0.13% year - on - year, and the crude steel and iron - water production will be basically the same as in 2025, at 102044.04 million tons and 87873.71 million tons respectively [22][23]. Steel Demand - Side Analysis - Real estate: Since 2025, the real - estate market has introduced favorable policies, but the data shows a decline. From January to October, real - estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, and new housing construction area decreased by 19.8% year - on - year [26]. - Infrastructure: In 2025, infrastructure investment growth declined. The growth rates of broad and narrow infrastructure investment dropped from 9% and 4.4% in 2024 to 1.5% and - 0.1% respectively from January to October. In 2026, steel supply is expected to exceed demand, which may suppress the market price [29][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the domestic and international macro - cycles may not support a trend - upward movement in agricultural products such as oils. However, the weakening of the US dollar may support commodity prices to some extent [4][21]. - Newly - expected global rapeseed oil production and consumption will both increase slightly year - on - year, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to tighten from 13.54% to 12.48%. In the 2025/2026 season, the domestic rapeseed oil supply and demand will change little compared to the previous year, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to be 21.7%, lower than 24.5% of the previous year. Rapeseed oil may enter the end of active destocking and the passive destocking phase in 2026 [4][21]. - Rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil prices are highly correlated. Rapeseed oil may be more affected by capital. In the new year, soybean oil and palm oil may show volatile trends, with opportunities in structural trading. Overall, rapeseed oil may not form a large - scale trend and will mainly operate in a volatile manner. Traders should seize structural and phased trading opportunities [4][22][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Market - **Diversified sources of rapeseed imports**: The EU, Canada, and China are the main rapeseed - producing regions, accounting for over 85% of global production. Canada is the largest exporter, the EU is a net importer, and China, as the largest consumer, relies on a large amount of imports. In recent years, China has increased imports from Russia and Australia [6]. - **Tightened inventory - to - consumption ratio of Canadian rapeseed**: In the 2025/2026 season, Canada's rapeseed production is expected to reach 21 million tons. The domestic crush volume is expected to increase to 11.75 million tons, and the ending inventory is 3 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio tightens from 14.79% to 11.35% [7][8]. - **Tightened inventory - to - consumption ratio of global rapeseed oil**: In 2025/2026, global rapeseed oil production will increase to 32.06 million tons. Consumption will increase slightly, and the ending inventory will be 4.02 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio tightens from 13.54% to 12.48% [9]. Domestic Rapeseed Oil - In the 2025/2026 season, the beginning inventory of rapeseed oil will increase slightly. The domestic production of rapeseed oil will decrease to 7.42 million tons due to a significant reduction in rapeseed imports. The direct import of rapeseed oil is expected to be 1.85 million tons. The total supply is expected to be 11.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.96 million tons from the previous year. The total demand is expected to slightly contract. The ending inventory is expected to be 2.1 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to be 21.7%, lower than the previous year [11][12]. Price Trends of the Oil Sector - **Soybean oil**: In 2025/2026, the global soybean supply will remain loose, but structural contradictions are prominent. The US soybean planting area is declining, Brazil's supply is abundant, and Argentina's supply faces risks from La Niña. The US biodiesel policy may boost demand but also brings uncertainties. Soybean oil may show a volatile trend, with trading opportunities in structural contradictions [17]. - **Palm oil**: In 2026, the global palm oil supply remains tight but increases slightly. Malaysia's production is flat, and Indonesia's production increases slightly. The US and Indonesia's biodiesel policies may affect demand. Palm oil will mainly show a volatile trend, with potential for structural trading opportunities [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the cost - side support for polyethylene is weak, and the supply - and - demand sides are under significant pressure. The market will fluctuate weakly with large upward pressure, mainly fluctuating in the bottom range in the short term. In the long term, attention can be paid to the structural opportunities brought by high - end production capacity and emerging demand [4][44]. - The cost support is expected to be limited. Crude oil supply is in global surplus with slowing demand growth, and coal supply - demand remains loose with weak and stable prices. Oil and coal provide insufficient cost support for polyethylene, and attention should be paid to the phased disturbances of macro and geopolitical factors on oil and coal prices [3][43]. - The supply pressure of polyethylene is expected to increase. In 2026, domestic polyethylene will continue to expand production, with planned new capacity exceeding 7 million tons and total capacity expected to reach 45 million tons. The proportion of high - pressure and high - end devices will increase. Import is expected to continue to shrink, and the industry focuses on high - performance competition [3][43]. - There is an expectation of slow recovery in demand. Domestic PE demand will gradually pick up, with short - and long - term trends diverging and uncertainties remaining. Stable - growth policies and consumption improvement will support demand, but overseas trade disturbances may restrict exports [3][43]. - There is uncertainty in the alleviation of inventory pressure in the industrial chain. The core variables are the release rhythm of previous production capacity and the strength of demand recovery. If demand does not improve and new capacity is released, inventory may remain high; if demand recovers due to policy stimulation, the pressure is expected to ease [3][44]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Polyethylene Market Review - **First stage (January 2 - May 30)**: The market was in a game between supply and demand with wide fluctuations. Supply was loose throughout the period, and demand was persistently weak. The overall supply - and - demand situation led to a downward price movement first and then a fluctuating bottom - building, with strong wait - and - see sentiment [6]. - **Second stage (June 3 - August 26)**: The market entered a game between cost support and supply pressure, showing a trend of fluctuating and stabilizing. Cost support from rising crude oil prices and high - level supply coexisted. Downstream demand was divided. The market price was difficult to break through upwards, and the upward rebound power was insufficient [7]. - **Third stage (August 27 - December 31)**: The imbalance between supply and demand intensified, and the market accelerated to the bottom. Supply was stable with new capacity continuously released, and demand was weak. The cost support was weak, and the price dropped to the annual low and then fluctuated at the bottom [8]. 2. Cost - Profit: Limited Support from Oil and Coal, Losses in Dual - Process Profits - **Expected loose supply - and - demand of oil and coal, cost - side under pressure**: In 2025, the crude oil market was in supply - demand surplus with a "high - then - low" price trend and a lower price center. In 2026, the supply - demand surplus pressure will still be large, and the price center will move down. The coking coal market in 2025 had a "V - shaped" price trend, and in 2026, it is expected to remain in a loose supply - demand balance with a low - level operation [11][13]. - **Differentiated dual - process profits, weak cost support awaiting a turnaround**: In 2025, the profitability of coal - based and oil - based LLDPE was significantly different. By the end of the year, both were in a loss state, which suppressed the production enthusiasm of enterprises. In 2026, the raw material cost of polyethylene may move down, but geopolitical and domestic coal price factors may cause disturbances [15][16]. 3. Supply Side: High Pressure from New Domestic Investments, Import May Continue to Shrink - **Continued expansion cycle, pay attention to the realization of new investment capacity**: From 2020 - 2026, it is an expansion cycle for the domestic polyethylene industry. In 2025, the design capacity reached 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.206%. In 2026, the planned new capacity is expected to exceed 7 million tons, and the total capacity may reach 45 million tons, which will intensify competition but also promote product structure upgrading [18][20]. - **Overhaul and expansion go hand in hand, the pressure of abundant market supply in 2026 is difficult to ease**: In 2025, the overhaul loss of polyethylene increased, and the production increased. In 2026, about 5 million tons of new capacity will be put into production, and the supply - side will continue to expand, with intensified competition for general grades and an upgraded supply structure [24][25]. - **Weak recovery of import profit, polyethylene import may continue to shrink**: Since the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first half of 2025, new domestic polyethylene plants were put into operation, squeezing imports. In 2025, the import profit declined, and the import volume decreased. In 2026, imports may continue to shrink, depending on domestic supply and import profit recovery [29][31]. 4. Demand Side: There is Still Room for Policy to Take Effect, Demand is Expected to Recover Slowly - **Mild bottom - building and recovery, waiting for the resonance of policy and demand**: In 2025, the domestic economy was in a mild bottom - building and recovery stage, with a slow recovery of internal and external demand. In 2026, domestic demand for plastic products is expected to gradually pick up, but the growth will be moderate due to external uncertainties [33][35]. - **Low downstream start - up, short - term pressure in 2026 awaiting recovery**: In 2025, the downstream start - up of polyethylene decreased year - on - year, and the demand growth was limited. In the long term, emerging industries will create new demand for polyethylene. In the short term, the weak demand pattern may continue until the first half of 2026 [37][39]. 5. Inventory Side: Inventory Center Moves Up, Uncertainty Remains in Pressure Alleviation - In 2025, the overall inventory in the industrial chain was loose, and the inventory center was higher than in previous years. In 2026, there is uncertainty in the alleviation of inventory pressure, which depends on the release rhythm of production capacity and the strength of demand recovery [41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the gold market witnessed a historic rally due to multiple structural factors, with international gold prices hitting record highs and cumulative gains exceeding 70%. The driving logic shifted from the traditional "real - interest - rate negative correlation" to the dual drivers of "sovereign credit risk premium" and "global monetary system fragmentation" [2]. - In 2026, the structural bull market for gold remains solid. Despite short - term callback pressure, the long - term allocation value of gold is prominent. Gold prices are likely to remain high and volatile, with higher volatility than in 2025. Opportunities for professional investors lie in cross - market arbitrage and volatility trading [3]. - The gold market's pricing paradigm is undergoing a profound transformation, from being dominated by real interest rates to being driven by fiscal sustainability, dollar - credit premium, and global monetary system reconstruction [61]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. 2025 Gold Market Panorama Review International Market Performance - The international gold price in 2025 went through three stages: "expectation correction, main - uptrend acceleration, and high - level consolidation". The core driving force shifted from traditional interest - rate games to the re - evaluation of the global credit system and strategic asset allocation [5]. - In Q1, gold played the role of a "stabilizer" in the portfolio. Despite geopolitical risks, strong US economic data led to doubts about the Fed's rate - cut timing and amplitude, causing gold price fluctuations. Gold prices rose nearly 25% in the first half of 2025 [6]. - From late April to Q3, the driving logic switched. The Fed's dovish signals and rate cuts, explosive growth in investment demand (global gold investment demand in Q3 reached 537 tons, a 47% year - on - year increase), and deepening geopolitical and credit concerns drove the main uptrend [7]. - In Q4, gold price volatility increased. Profit - taking, short - term liquidity changes, central - bank gold purchases, new market forces, and the FOMO sentiment in the precious - metal sector all contributed to the high - level fluctuations [8][9]. Domestic Market Performance - The domestic gold market in 2025 showed a pattern of "new price highs, hot investment but cold consumption, and a more in - depth market". Domestic gold prices were highly synchronized with international prices [10][11]. - In terms of structured demand, high gold prices led to a significant difference between investment and consumption demand. Gold jewelry consumption declined, while investment in gold bars, coins, and ETFs showed different trends [13][14]. - Market activity increased significantly in 2025. The trading volume of the domestic gold spot and futures markets soared, and the internationalization of the domestic gold market advanced. The Shanghai Gold Exchange launched an international - board contract in Hong Kong [16]. - The RMB exchange rate in 2025 provided a buffer for domestic gold prices. Exchange - rate fluctuations affected the performance of RMB - denominated gold and created differences between domestic and international gold price trends [17]. - The spread between domestic and international gold prices fluctuated in 2025, providing arbitrage opportunities but also increasing risks. The spread was driven by short - term supply - demand imbalances, exchange - rate expectations, capital flows, market sentiment, and policy events [20][21]. - In 2025, a new gold - tax policy was implemented, which had a profound impact on the Chinese gold market. It differentiated the VAT treatment of investment and non - investment gold, guiding the market towards a more standardized and transparent stage [23][25][26]. 2. 2025 Core Driving Factor Analysis Macro Level - The Fed's "preventative cuts" in 2025 led to a "rate - logic failure" phenomenon, indicating a fundamental shift in the core driving logic of gold prices [29]. - The market's focus shifted from interest - rate levels to the deteriorating US fiscal sustainability, leading to a "credit - anchor migration" and a change in the gold - price driving logic from "against high interest rates" to "against credit dilution" [31]. Risk Premium Level - Geopolitical events in 2025 had a complex impact on gold prices. While single events might have a short - term and pulsed impact, they also raised the gold - pricing center as a long - term "background noise" and a structural call option [34][37]. - In 2025, the gold - silver ratio decreased significantly, and the gold - copper ratio reached a historical high. These changes reflected complex macro - narratives and market - structure changes, such as inflation expectations and differences in the driving logic of different commodities [39][42]. Structural Supply - Demand Level - Global central banks became important buyers in the gold market in 2025. Their gold - buying behavior was strategic, and the future potential for central - bank gold allocation in China is large [44]. - In 2025, there was a large - scale cross - ocean flow of physical gold between the New York (COMEX) and London (LME) markets. This flow was driven by arbitrage and policy - risk avoidance. It affected the inventory distribution, liquidity structure, and price - discovery mechanism of the gold market [47][48][55]. 3. 2026 Outlook Key Time Nodes and Event Deduction in 2026 - In Q1 2026, the US debt - ceiling negotiation may cause short - term market volatility and trigger a re - evaluation of the dollar's credit. The outcome of the negotiation will affect the gold - price trend [57]. - In Q2 2026, the Fed's mid - term inflation assessment will determine the market's trading narrative. Different inflation scenarios will have different impacts on gold prices [57]. - In Q3 2026, the BRICS summit may promote the internationalization of the gold monetary role. Positive signals from the summit will provide long - term support for gold prices [59]. - In Q4 2026, the US mid - term elections will affect future fiscal policies. Different policy expectations will have different impacts on gold prices [59]. Short - Term Volatility Risks - Uncertainty in the Fed's policy pace may suppress gold prices in the short term if inflation is反复 [63]. - Crowded trading structures and changes in market sentiment may lead to a 10% - 15% technical correction in gold prices [63][64]. 4. Investment Strategy Recommendations - For most investors, it is recommended to establish a core position with physical gold or gold - related financial products through a regular - investment approach to achieve long - term asset allocation [65]. - For professional and qualified investors, futures contracts can be used as tactical tools for enhanced strategies, risk management, and capturing structural opportunities such as cross - period and cross - market arbitrage [65][66].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The corn price cycle is about 3 - 5 years, following the pattern of rising - oscillating - falling. The current cycle that started in 2021 is at the end of the downward phase, and a new cycle may begin in 2026. After four years of sharp fluctuations, the planting cost has declined, and the corn price has returned to the previous low - volatility range, reaching a near - four - year low and facing an important support level for futures prices [2] - The global corn market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with demand growing faster than supply, laying the foundation for price increases. The total global corn production has reached a new peak, while the ending inventory has decreased year - on - year, providing fundamental support for a slow upward trend in global corn prices. China's structural adjustment of import strategies is reshaping the global corn trade pattern [2] - In 2026, the domestic corn market is expected to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand. The domestic market has established a supply system of "high self - sufficiency, low imports", and demand is characterized by "stable feed, growing deep - processing", with deep - processing becoming a key factor in balancing supply and demand [3] - In 2026, the corn market is expected to enter a moderately upward cycle, with the price center rising slightly compared to this year, but there is insufficient momentum for a sharp increase, and the overall trend will be a slow climb [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 3.1 Corn Cyclical Patterns - Corn has experienced four complete price fluctuation cycles in the past 20 years and is currently at the end of the fifth cycle, about to enter a new cycle. Each cycle lasts about 3 - 5 years, and the length is affected by national agricultural policies and external shocks [4] - The first cycle (2004 - 2008) was driven by supply - demand fundamentals and early agricultural policies, with a typical rise - correction pattern and reaching a peak due to the global food crisis [4] - The second cycle (2008 - 2011) saw significant price fluctuations under the influence of the financial crisis and policy intervention. Prices recovered later due to policy support and demand resurgence [4] - The third cycle (2011 - 2016) was dominated by the "policy - led market". The temporary storage policy supported prices but also led to high inventory pressure. The market entered a transition period after the policy was cancelled [4] - The fourth cycle (2016 - 2021): With the policy shift to "market - based procurement plus subsidies", prices were mainly determined by market supply and demand. After inventory reduction, capacity adjustment, and demand growth, prices entered an upward channel [5] - The fifth cycle (2021 - present): Affected by factors such as rising planting costs, extreme climate, and geopolitical conflicts, prices have fluctuated widely at high levels. The cycle is now coming to an end, and factors for the next cycle are accumulating [5] 3.2 Analysis of Corn Trends in 2025 - The nominal high of the corn market in this cycle occurred in Q4 2022. In 2023, prices declined throughout the year, and this downward trend continued in 2024 and 2025. In 2025, the market was in the final stage of the bear market, with wide - range fluctuations between 2000 - 2400 yuan/ton [6] - From December 2024 to March 2025, prices rose unilaterally due to expectations of reduced planting area, uncertain weather, and pre - holiday stocking by feed enterprises [7] - From March to June 2025, prices oscillated at high levels. On the one hand, the reduction of farmers' surplus grain and the reluctance of traders to sell provided support; on the other hand, weak feed demand in the off - season and sufficient substitute supply limited the upward space [8] - From June to October 2025, prices declined unilaterally. The expected good harvest in the main producing areas and weak downstream demand led to a pessimistic market sentiment [9][11] - From October 2025 to the present, prices oscillated at the bottom. Although the supply pressure reached its peak with the large - scale listing of new grain, farmers' reluctance to sell and policy - related rumors provided support. The slow recovery of the macro - economy and terminal consumption also limited the scale and speed of inventory reconstruction [12] 3.3 Analysis of the Global Corn Supply - Demand Pattern 3.3.1 The Global Corn Ending Inventory in 2025 was Revised Down Year - on - Year - In 2025, the global corn production is estimated to be 128,296.2 tons, an increase of 5,235.4 tons (4.25%) compared to the previous year. The total supply increased to 176,669.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3,565.7 tons (2.06%) [14] - The global total demand in 2025 is expected to increase by 4,987.5 tons (3.47%) year - on - year, reaching 148,754.8 tons. Due to the faster growth of demand than supply, the ending inventory decreased year - on - year, laying the foundation for a slow upward trend in global corn prices [14][15] 3.3.2 US Corn Supply Reached a Record High, and the Export Pattern Changed Significantly - In the 2025/26 season, the US corn industry expanded comprehensively. The production increased to 42,552.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4,725.7 tons, driven by the expansion of planting area and the increase in yield per unit [16] - The US corn export volume reached 8,128.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 868.1 tons, setting a new record. However, the global trade flow has changed, with the US shifting its export focus due to the shrinking Chinese market [16] - The US corn ending inventory in 2025 reached 5,153.4 tons, the highest in nearly seven years, a year - on - year increase of 1,262.9 tons, reflecting a pattern of oversupply [17] 3.3.3 Brazil's Corn Export Capacity was Limited due to Reduced Production and Strong Domestic Demand - In 2025, Brazil's corn production decreased by 500,000 tons to 13.1 million tons, mainly due to the reduction in second - crop corn caused by the delayed soybean sowing and adverse weather conditions [20] - Brazil's total corn consumption increased by 400,000 tons to 13.95 million tons, driven by the growth of domestic ethanol production and the high demand from the livestock industry [20] - The situation of "decreased production and increased consumption" restricted Brazil's corn export capacity, which affected the global trade flow and provided space for the US to expand its market share [21] 3.4 Analysis of the Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Pattern 3.4.1 Supply: The Trend of Autonomous Supply Pattern was Consolidated - China has built a supply system mainly based on domestic production, and corn self - sufficiency has been significantly improved. In 2025, the production is expected to exceed 300 million tons, reaching a new high, driven by the increase in both planting area and yield per unit [24] - Corn imports and the use of substitute grains have significantly decreased. Imports have changed from a necessary means to make up for the supply gap to a strategic reserve for adjusting variety surpluses and shortages. The reduction in imports has affected the global trade pattern [26] - In 2025/2026, the new - season corn planting cost in Northeast China decreased. The estimated port collection price provides a lower limit for the futures price. The corn inventory in the north and south ports has decreased to a medium - low level in recent years, which may amplify price fluctuations [29][30] 3.4.2 Demand: The Downstream Demand Remained Rigid but without Increment, with Limited Boosting Effect - The process of reducing pig production capacity has been slow. As of October 2025, the pig inventory was still at a high level, and the demand for corn in the feed industry will remain rigid in the short term, but there is little room for growth [33][34] - In 2025, the corn deep - processing industry showed the characteristics of "expanding capacity, stable consumption, and optimized structure". The annual processing volume was about 78 million tons, accounting for 25% - 30% of domestic consumption. After the industry's profit turned positive in July, it became an important force supporting the corn market [40][43] 3.5 Summary and Price Outlook - The current corn market is at a critical point of cycle transition. The domestic supply has established a pattern of "high self - sufficiency, low imports", and the demand shows a "dual - pillar" structure of "stable feed, growing deep - processing". Corn at the current low price is expected to start a new cycle [48] - In 2026, the corn market is expected to enter a slow upward cycle, with the price center rising slightly, but the possibility of a sharp increase is low. The start of the new cycle depends on the demand recovery after the substantial reduction of pig production capacity, the sustainability of the deep - processing industry's profitability, and external factors such as weather in major producing areas [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Report's Core Viewpoints - In 2026, Shanghai aluminum prices are at a relatively high level, and the high - profit situation is unsustainable. The market will shift from a tight - balance state to a substantial surplus, and the industry profit will return to a reasonable level. Investors should be cautious and wait for important nodes. [4][45] - The long - term bull market in the Shanghai aluminum market since 2015 is facing the key test of the economic cycle transformation, and 2026 is likely to be an important turning point, with high prices and high volatility as its core characteristics. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - From a long - term perspective, 2026 may be an important node in this round of the aluminum price bull market, and there is a risk of a large - scale bear market. In 2025, Shanghai aluminum showed a steady upward trend in shock, breaking through the previous high, but the price is under pressure. [8] - In 2025, the price trend of Shanghai aluminum can be divided into three stages: from January to mid - March, it oscillated upward; from mid - March to early April, it had a deep correction; from early April to December, it oscillated upward again and hit a new high. [9][10][11] 2. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - side - Globally, the supply of primary aluminum continued in a tight - balance pattern in 2025, with the supply growth rate slowing down. The main constraint was China's strict production capacity ceiling policy, and overseas markets also faced multiple challenges. [15] - In China, policies strictly controlled production capacity, and supply lacked elasticity. The development of the scrap aluminum and recycled aluminum markets was incomplete, and the primary aluminum supply remained rigid. [17] - China's net import of electrolytic aluminum continued, with Russian aluminum dominating the import pattern. In the future, the growth rate of the net import scale may decline marginally. [20] Demand - side - Traditional construction consumption industries were under pressure. The real estate industry had a negative impact on the demand for aluminum in construction, and the demand proportion was decreasing year by year. [24] - Emerging fields still had resilience. The transportation field, especially new - energy - related areas, became the main growth point of aluminum demand, and the aluminum consumption scale in transportation was expected to exceed that in traditional construction in the future. [25] 3. Inventory Analysis - As of the end of December 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory was at a relatively low level, providing support for aluminum prices. The inventory might face a transformation between accumulation and depletion, and was affected by seasonal factors and supply - demand fundamentals. [31][33] - In 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated complexly, experiencing seasonal accumulation in the first quarter, continuous depletion in the second quarter, re - accumulation in the third quarter, and high - level oscillation in the fourth quarter. [32] 4. Cost - Profit Analysis - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum industry maintained high profits, but many factors supporting high profits were unsustainable. As the market shifted to a substantial surplus and inventory accumulated, the high profits would be squeezed out through price decline and cost collapse. [36] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum market is expected to shift from a tight - balance state from 2021 - 2023 to a small - scale surplus pattern after 2024, and the surplus will expand. The total consumption growth rate will show a downward trend, and the core contradiction in the future market will be the balance between the rigid growth of supply and the slow - down of demand growth under structural transformation. [40] 6. Summary and Outlook 2025 Shanghai Aluminum Market Summary - In 2025, the Shanghai aluminum market showed strong resilience. The price fluctuated widely in the range of 19,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, with a lower volatility than in 2024. [44] - The supply rigidity increased, the demand was structurally differentiated, the low - inventory state was normalized, and the cost center moved down but remained at a relatively high level. [44] 2026 Shanghai Aluminum Market Outlook - In 2026, the high price and high profit of Shanghai aluminum are unsustainable. The market will turn to a substantial surplus, and the price will face challenges. [45] - The price will be under pressure from inventory accumulation and cost collapse. It is recommended that investors be cautious, avoid chasing high prices, and pay close attention to inventory turning points and cost - line verification. [46]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the global macro - expectation may be slightly better than 2025, but still mainly feature structured fluctuations [2][54] - Supply disturbances may continue, with the mismatch between mining and smelting reaching an extreme, and the demand side may face real - world tests after the hype. The supply side remains one of the main factors driving copper price fluctuations [2][54] - Global copper inventories will continue to accumulate, which may define the high - price copper market as a bubble [2][54] - Copper prices are in the Conjuncture bubble stage, at the end of the strategic long - position and the beginning of the strategic short - position [2][54] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情简顾 - From 2020 - 2025, copper prices showed different trends. In 2025, copper prices broke through the Conjuncture high, with Shanghai copper rising 31.11% and LME copper rising 42.3%, mainly driven by a sharp increase in the fourth quarter [6] 3.2 2026年分析逻辑 - **Supply side**: The TC long - term price dropped to 0 in 2026, indicating extreme raw material disturbances. The "bullwhip effect" in the mining raw material sector reached its peak in 2025, and 2026 may see a turn [8] - **Demand side**: The global inventory cycle is at the bottom, and it is a weak cycle. Although overseas policies and new demands such as new energy and AI provide some support, the demand side is difficult to become the dominant factor [8] - **Conclusion**: 2026 may be a turning point year. Copper prices are still in the bubble stage, and investors should be vigilant against reverse - V fluctuations [8] 3.3全球经济与资本展望 - **China**: In 2026, as the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, China is expected to improve. However, due to factors such as the real estate market, the new cycle is a weak one, and the year will still feature structured fluctuations [9][10] - **US**: 2026 is expected to be the end of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle. There may be potential changes in monetary and fiscal policies, which could bring significant fluctuations to the global market and copper prices [11][12] 3.4基本面分析 3.4.1供应端 - **Upstream mining**: Capital expenditure has been increasing since 2021. 2025 - 2026 may be a turning point for output. Although raw material supply may not improve significantly, the degree of tightness may not exceed 2025 [17][18][20] - **Mid - stream smelting**: The imbalance between raw materials and smelting capacity has led to heavy losses in the smelting sector. In 2026, there is a strong expectation of anti - involution, and TC may turn around [23][24] - **Global inventory**: Global copper inventories have been accumulating since 2024, and this trend is expected to continue in 2026 [28][29] 3.4.2消费端 - **Power sector**: Traditional power consumption remains stable, but the rapid growth in the green - power field has slowed down. New industries will provide long - term demand growth, but currently cannot replace traditional demand [36][37] - **Real estate and auto sectors**: In 2025, the auto industry was booming, while the real estate market continued to be weak. The real - estate market is in the downward phase of its cycle, providing limited support for copper demand [38][39][40] 3.4.3小结 - Supply disturbances are a core feature, and the contradiction between raw material supply and smelting capacity expansion will not change fundamentally in 2026. Demand is insufficient, and new demand cannot become the dominant factor in the short term [49] 3.5技术分析研究 - From the monthly K - line of LME copper, the bull market during the period of global prosperity - recession ended in 2011. The current bull market during the period of global recession - depression may end, and the nominal high may appear in the current upward cycle. The market in the depression period features extreme and volatile price movements [51] 3.6结论和建议 - **Research conclusion**: Similar to the core views of the report, including better global macro - expectations in 2026, continued supply disturbances, inventory accumulation, and copper prices in the bubble stage [54] - **Operation suggestions**: The high point in 2021 is the end of the strategic long - position. In the bubble stage, investors should focus on defense during the upward phase and seize opportunities during the downward phase, with key price levels of around $10,000/ton for LME copper and 80,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global iron ore industry will enter a deep adjustment period characterized by "intensified supply relaxation, moderate demand recovery, and a downward shift in the price center," with an annual trend of "stable in the front and declining in the back" [2][34]. - The core contradiction in the industry will shift from "supply shortage" to "insufficient demand," and the focus of competition will be on high - grade resources, cost - control capabilities, and green and low - carbon transformation [2][34]. - Policy regulation will continuously guide the high - quality development of the industry, the profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain will tilt towards steel mills, and mining companies will face pressure from profit squeezing and intensified competition [2][34]. - ESG and geopolitical factors are becoming increasingly prominent as important variables in the industry's development [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Annual Market Review - **Initial Surge Phase (Early January - Mid - February)**: Prices rose from about 780 yuan/ton to nearly 840 yuan/ton. The driving factors were the release of domestic steel mills' post - Spring Festival restocking demand, the decline in the shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian mines due to seasonal weather, and the market's optimistic expectations for the early - year growth - stabilization policies [3]. - **Decline and Adjustment Phase (Mid - February - Early June)**: Prices oscillated and declined from the high level, reaching an annual low of about 710 - 720 yuan/ton in early June. The reasons were the recovery of Australian and Brazilian shipments after the weather impact subsided, the release of new production capacity of the four major mines, the weak demand for construction steel, the squeeze on steel mill profits, and the increase in port inventories [4]. - **Oscillatory Recovery Phase (Early June - December)**: Prices gradually recovered from the low level and approached the high - level range of 830 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The drivers were the acceleration of domestic infrastructure project implementation, the launch of real - estate support policies, the expansion of steel production capacity in India and ASEAN, the slower - than - expected actual shipment volume of the Simandou project, and the market's optimistic expectations for demand recovery in the second half of the year [5]. 3.2 Supply Side - **Mainstream Mines**: In 2026, the supply of mainstream iron ore is expected to grow. In Oceania, Australia's total output is expected to reach 9.86 billion tons, with an increase of 167.8 million tons year - on - year. In South America, Brazil's total output is expected to reach 4.84 billion tons, with an increase of 50.6 million tons year - on - year [8][10]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: In South Asia, India's iron ore output is expected to continue growing in 2026. With the implementation of the "National Steel Policy 2017," India's iron ore demand and output will be directly boosted, and its imports are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 80% [11]. - **Domestic Mines**: Affected by resource endowment and cost constraints, domestic production shows a slight downward trend. The "Cornerstone Plan" failed to achieve the goal of adding 100 million tons of iron concentrate in 2025, and the domestic mines' substitution effect on imported ores is limited, with the import dependence remaining above 80% [15]. 3.3 Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: In 2025, China's iron ore demand was weak. The consumption of construction steel decreased significantly, while the demand for manufacturing steel showed structural growth. In 2026, domestic iron ore demand may be further squeezed, but the development of the manufacturing and emerging industries will provide some support [20][21]. - **Overseas Demand**: In 2026, overseas iron ore demand growth is relatively certain. India, ASEAN, and Africa will be the main growth points, while the EU and the US will show a "weak recovery" trend, and Japan and South Korea will have weak demand. The growth quality depends on the policy implementation and production capacity release of emerging economies [26][27]. 3.4 Inventory - The total global iron ore inventory is expected to increase by 8% - 10% year - on - year in 2026, approaching 1.5 billion tons at the end of the year. The inventory pattern will be characterized by "high - level pressure on the total amount and significant structural differentiation," which will continuously suppress prices [2][28]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report formulates a supply - demand balance sheet for iron ore to reflect the market supply and demand situation and makes corresponding forecasts for the iron ore supply and demand in 2024 [33]. 3.6 Conclusion and Outlook - **Conclusion**: The industry will enter a deep adjustment period in 2026, with the core contradiction shifting and the competition focus changing. Policy regulation will guide the industry's high - quality development, and ESG and geopolitical factors will have a greater impact [34]. - **Outlook**: The supply will be loose, the global iron ore output is expected to reach 26.78 billion tons, and the price center will decline. The Simandou project will reshape the supply pattern. The demand will show a moderate recovery, mainly from emerging economies. The profit distribution will tilt towards steel mills, and policies at home and abroad will have a complex impact on the industry [35][36].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint In November, the total volume of polyethylene shrank, but LLDPE increased. The supply - demand, variety, and regional differentiation put pressure on prices. There is no clear positive news in supply and demand. With no expected supply contraction and weak demand recovery, the market has insufficient short - term improvement expectations, and the price is restricted from rising. In December, the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern of the polyethylene market is difficult to change substantially, and the market is likely to continue the weak and volatile trend, with prices under pressure [4][5]. 3. Summary by Section Supply Side - **November Situation**: The total domestic polyethylene supply in November showed a pattern of total contraction and structural differentiation. The total output decreased by 561,400 tons month - on - month to 2.68953 million tons, while LLDPE output increased by 307,000 tons to 1.23863 million tons. The maintenance loss decreased by 28.6% to 368,200 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate rose to 83.24%, with a "two - up, one - down" regional pattern. North China decreased slightly, East China rose significantly by 8.27% to 91.45%, and South China also increased [7][8]. - **December Outlook**: The supply is expected to remain abundant in December. The operation of on - site devices is stable, and with the supplement of previously delayed imported resources, there will be no significant fluctuations in the supply side. The demand lacks clear growth points, and the overall demand provides weak support [5][9]. Inventory - **November Situation**: In late November, the inventory pattern showed an increase in production - end inventory and a decrease in circulation - end inventory. The production - end inventory of PE enterprises rose by 38,000 tons to 454,000 tons, with coal - based enterprises at 70,000 tons and two - oil enterprises at 384,000 tons. The LLDPE production - end inventory rose by 26,900 tons to 166,100 tons. The PE social inventory decreased by 56,300 tons to 471,100 tons, and the LLDPE social inventory decreased by 20,200 tons to 176,500 tons [12][13]. - **December Outlook**: The high production - end inventory still potentially suppresses the market. If the demand improvement is not sustainable, the inventory pressure may be transmitted to the circulation link. If the production end adjusts the production plan, the inventory structural contradiction may be alleviated [5]. Import - **November Situation**: In November, the domestic polyethylene import market showed complex trends. Import prices were regionally differentiated, with LLDPE CFR China at $800/ton (down $14/ton month - on - month), CFR Southeast Asia at $844/ton (down $7/ton), FD Northwest Europe at €899/ton (up €20/ton), and FOB Middle East at $787/ton (down $28/ton). In October, the total import volume decreased slightly by 11,000 tons to 1.0112 million tons, while LLDPE imports increased by 32,900 tons to 358,900 tons. The average monthly import profit showed a pattern of "one up, two down", with LLDPE at - 26.74 yuan/ton (down 13.48 yuan/ton), LDPE at 508.89 yuan/ton (up 110.73 yuan/ton), and HDPE at 16.96 yuan/ton (down 93.55 yuan/ton) [17][18][19]. Demand Side - **November Situation**: In November, the overall downstream开工率 of polyethylene was 44.59%, down 0.33% month - on - month. The agricultural film industry's开工率 was 49.72%, up 7.9%, while the packaging film industry's开工率 was 50.7%, down 0.6%. The raw material inventory of downstream enterprises showed structural changes. The available days of agricultural film enterprises' raw material inventory increased to 15.37 days, and that of packaging film enterprises decreased to 8.33 days [23][24]. - **December Outlook**: In December, the agricultural film demand will enter the off - season, the packaging film will maintain rigid procurement with limited order growth, and the overall demand will be weakly supportive [5]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: In November, the oil - based polyethylene cost decreased to 7,260.54 yuan/ton, down 79.32 yuan/ton month - on - month, due to the weak international crude oil market. The coal - based polyethylene cost increased to 7,012.25 yuan/ton, up 358.36 yuan/ton month - on - month, due to the supply - demand adjustment in the coal market [28][29]. - **Profit**: In November, the profit of oil - based enterprises decreased significantly to - 383.04 yuan/ton, down 146.89 yuan/ton month - on - month, and coal - based enterprises turned from profit to loss, with a profit of - 130.82 yuan/ton, down 532.94 yuan/ton month - on - month [31]. - **Spread**: In November, the average spread of the PE - PVC:01 contract was 2,238.4 yuan/ton, up 0.69 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the average spread of the PE - PP:01 contract was 371.6 yuan/ton, up 56.84 yuan/ton month - on - month [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of the new - season corn market remains loose. The recent "inverse seasonal increase" is due to the combined effect of temporary and regional supply - demand mismatches and structural support factors. Although the Northeast production area faces pressure from concentrated grain sales and downstream demand has not recovered significantly, factors such as poor grain flow, low inventory in the trading and downstream sectors, and possible strengthening of farmers' reluctance to sell have led to a strong - oscillating price trend during the traditional supply - pressure period. The short - term upward space for corn prices is limited, and the market will focus on the grain - selling rhythm in production areas, the recovery process of downstream demand, and market sentiment changes [5][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn Market Structure - As of the end of November, the price of the main corn contract rose from the previous low (2000 - 2100 yuan/ton) and then entered a high - level oscillation pattern due to lack of subsequent driving forces. Frequent snow and rain in the Northeast improved new - grain storage conditions, strengthened farmers' reluctance to sell, and restricted logistics, reducing the outflow of grain and supporting the corn price in the production area. However, downstream demand was weak, enterprise inventory was relatively sufficient, and losses in the breeding sector suppressed feed consumption, resulting in low market trading activity. The current price increase is supported by short - term supply - demand mismatches, and its sustainability and upward space need further observation [7]. - The overall futures - spot structure shows a Contango structure, with 01 at a discount to 05 and 05 at a discount to 09 [8]. 3.2 Market行情Analysis 3.2.1 Loose Supply in the Corn Market Lays the Foundation for Low Prices - The new - season corn market shows "slightly increasing supply and stable rigid demand". In 2025, the national corn output is expected to be 282 million tons, an increase of 11.13 million tons compared with 2024. The Northeast had significant production increases, while the North China's output was flat due to weather. Since July 1, the auction of imported corn and the increasing substitution of wheat for corn in feed use have jointly promoted the transformation of the corn market from a structurally tight balance to an overall loose one [11]. - The new - season corn planting cost in the Northeast in 2025/2026 is 1078 - 1379 yuan/mu, a decrease of 50 - 150 yuan/mu compared with the previous year. After adding other costs, the estimated port - collection price is around 2100 yuan/ton, but due to production and rent adjustments, it is reduced to 2000 yuan/ton, and the bottom of the corn futures price is in the range of 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton [12][13]. - Although the national corn output has increased, there are still prominent regional and structural contradictions. In North China, about 20 - 30 million tons of corn cannot be used for feed due to quality problems, increasing the demand for Northeast corn. Logistics bottlenecks have also exacerbated the supply - demand mismatch between production and sales areas. Currently, the grain - selling progress in the Northeast is about 19% and in North China is about 23%, and there will still be supply pressure from concentrated grain sales later [15]. - In October 2025, China imported 12.028 million tons of grain, and from January to October, the cumulative import was 118.775 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.8%. In October, the corn import volume was 359,000 tons, a significant increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year. From January to October, the corn import volume was 1.2928 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.15%. The import volumes of wheat, sorghum, and barley also decreased significantly, indicating that domestic supply basically meets demand and the proportion of imported corn in the market has shrunk rapidly [16][17]. - In 2025, the wheat output increased by about 4%, and due to weak downstream demand, wheat had a price advantage over corn, resulting in a substitution of 20 - 30 million tons in the feed sector. As the corn - wheat price difference reversed, the substitution effect of wheat weakened, and the diverted demand returned to the corn market [22]. 3.2.2 Downstream Demand Remains Rigid but Without Increment, with Limited Boosting Effect - Corn consumption is mainly concentrated in feed - breeding and deep - processing. The current downstream market shows "stable rigid demand but lack of significant growth momentum" [26]. - In the feed - breeding sector, since July, policies have been promoting the reduction of the inventory of breeding sows, but the process of capacity reduction is slow. As of September 2025, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, and the inventory of breeding sows was still high. The pig index has fallen below the breeding cost, and the pig futures and spot prices are expected to remain at the bottom, and the industry will gradually enter the capacity - reduction stage [27]. - In the deep - processing sector, after the new - season corn price dropped, deep - processing enterprises in the north and south generally turned from losses to profits. The deep - processing starch profits in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, and Shandong were about 81.92 yuan/ton, 41.04 yuan/ton, 33.06 yuan/ton, and - 76.06 yuan/ton respectively [28]. 3.2.3 Inventory at a Phased Low Increases Price Elasticity - As of November 21, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.4 million tons, and the inventory in Guangdong Port was 599,000 tons, both at a medium - low level in recent years. The decline in northern port inventory may be due to the exhaustion of grassroots surplus grain and traders' reluctance to sell, while the decline in southern port inventory reflects reduced arrivals and stable downstream提货. The overall decline in port inventory weakens the buffering effect of the market, making price fluctuations more sensitive to supply and demand changes [33][37]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The overall supply of the new - season corn market remains loose, and the recent "inverse seasonal increase" is due to temporary and regional supply - demand mismatches and structural support factors. The short - term upward space for corn prices is limited, and the market will focus on the grain - selling rhythm in production areas, the recovery process of downstream demand, and market sentiment changes [39].