Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. Core Views - In the stock index market, investors can focus on hedging and arbitrage opportunities arising from short - to medium - term fluctuations, and pay close attention to macroeconomic data and policy trends [4]. - For crude oil, the WTI main contract should be watched around the next resistance level of $70 per barrel. In the long - term, without major geopolitical impacts on supply, the upside for crude oil is limited [5]. - Gold price is in a range - bound pattern. Short - term fluctuations depend on the Fed's policy signals and geopolitical situations in the Middle East [7]. - Silver prices are highly volatile. Investors should be cautious of high - level pullbacks and focus on policy signals, geopolitical trends, and the divergence between speculation and fundamentals [8]. - For PTA, it may run with a short - term downward bias [9]. - Ethylene glycol prices may be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [10]. - PVC futures prices will likely oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [11]. - PP futures prices may oscillate at low levels due to weak demand [13]. - Plastic futures prices may fluctuate in the short term due to weak fundamentals [14]. - Soda ash futures are expected to continue bottom - range oscillations in the short term [16]. - Glass futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. - Rubber prices are mainly weak, but there is an expectation of a rebound after negative factors are realized [18]. - Methanol futures prices will oscillate in a short - term range, and the risk of continuous inventory accumulation should be watched [19]. - Corn futures will mainly oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short term [21]. - Peanut futures prices will adjust weakly in the short term [22]. - Cotton futures prices will run strongly in a short - term range [23]. - Live hog futures will oscillate weakly [24]. - It is recommended to wait and see for egg futures for now [25]. - Soybean No. 2 futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [26]. - Soybean meal futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [27]. - Soybean oil futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [28]. - Rapeseed meal futures' 2509 contract performance at the previous high - price platform should be watched [29]. - Rapeseed oil futures' 2509 contract will likely oscillate in a short - term range [30]. - For copper, it is recommended to relieve defenses at high prices based on the island - shaped technical pattern [31]. - Shanghai aluminum futures' 2507 contract will likely oscillate in a range [32]. - Alumina futures' 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [33]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures' 2511 contract will likely run strongly [34]. - For lithium carbonate, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive ones can operate within a range [36]. - Industrial silicon futures' 2507 contract will oscillate strongly at the bottom [37]. - Polysilicon futures' 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and the support at previous lows should be watched [37]. - Stainless steel futures are in a wide - range low - level oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [38]. - Rebar futures can be treated with a light - position, low - buying strategy in the short term [40]. - Hot - rolled coil futures can be treated with a light - position, low - buying strategy [41]. - Iron ore futures' 2509 contract will likely maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [42]. - Coking coal and coke futures will mainly oscillate recently, and attention should be paid to steel mills' inventory destocking and policy implementation [42]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Market analysis: Sino - US economic and trade consultations have reached a principle framework, the US May CPI is lower than expected, and China's May PPI remains low. The market shows a divergence in the inter - term structure of stock index futures [3]. - Reference view: Investors can focus on short - to medium - term hedging and arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to macroeconomic data and policy trends [4]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The Sino - US second - round negotiation "reached a framework agreement in principle", and the oil price broke through the key level of $65 per barrel [5]. - Market analysis: OPEC has significantly lowered future global demand growth, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased supply uncertainty [5]. - Reference view: Watch the next resistance level of $70 per barrel, and the upside is limited in the long - term without major geopolitical impacts [5]. Gold - Macro and geopolitical drivers: The US May CPI data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boosted the safe - haven demand for gold [7]. - Market performance: Gold price is in a range - bound pattern [7]. - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the Fed's policy signals and geopolitical situations in the Middle East [7]. Silver - Market price: The international spot silver price fell on June 12, and the gold - silver ratio rose [8]. - Market analysis: Weak inflation and smooth trade negotiations reduced safe - haven demand, and the price increase was mainly driven by futures speculation [8]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious of high - level pullbacks and focus on policy signals, geopolitical trends, and the divergence between speculation and fundamentals [8]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The East China spot price increased, with a discount [9]. - Market analysis: Oil price fluctuations affect costs, the overall PTA operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The polyester factory load decreased, and textile orders were weak [9]. - Reference view: It may run with a short - term downward bias [9]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The East China spot price remained unchanged, with a positive basis [10]. - Market analysis: The supply decreased slightly, the demand was suppressed by weak terminal orders, and the inventory increased [10]. - Reference view: Prices may be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [10]. PVC - Spot information: The spot prices in East China remained unchanged [11]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the social inventory decreased [11]. - Reference view: Futures prices will likely oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [11]. PP - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions showed slight changes [12]. - Market analysis: The supply increased, demand entered the off - season, and the production enterprise inventory increased [12]. - Reference view: Futures prices may oscillate at low levels due to weak demand [13]. Plastic - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions increased slightly [14]. - Market analysis: The supply capacity utilization rate increased, the downstream average operating rate changed slightly, and the inventory increased [14]. - Reference view: Futures prices may fluctuate in the short term due to weak fundamentals [14]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The mainstream prices in different regions remained unchanged [15]. - Market analysis: The supply increased, the inventory increased slightly, and the demand was average [15]. - Reference view: Futures are expected to continue bottom - range oscillations in the short term [16]. Glass - Spot information: The market prices in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - Market analysis: The supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased slightly, and the demand was weak [17]. - Reference view: Futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. Rubber - Market price: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [18]. - Market analysis: The Sino - US trade situation and oversupply have dragged down the price, and the downstream tire operating rate decreased [18]. - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate, and the price shows a pattern of slow rises and sharp falls under weak fundamentals [18]. Methanol - Spot information: The East China spot price decreased [19]. - Market analysis: The futures price rose slightly, the port inventory increased, the supply pressure continued, and the demand was weak [19]. - Reference view: Futures prices will oscillate in a short - term range, and the risk of continuous inventory accumulation should be watched [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: Corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [20]. - Market analysis: Favorable weather in the US and concerns about imports, tight domestic supply in the short term, and weak downstream demand [21]. - Reference view: Futures will mainly oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short term [21]. Peanut - Spot price: Peanut prices in different regions are provided [22]. - Market analysis: The expected increase in planting area in 2025, current low inventory, and weak supply and demand [22]. - Reference view: Futures prices will adjust weakly in the short term [22]. Cotton - Spot information: The domestic cotton spot price index and Xinjiang arrival price are provided [23]. - Market analysis: Sino - US relations have improved, long - term supply is expected to be loose, and short - term inventory is low with weak downstream demand [23]. - Reference view: Cotton futures prices will run strongly in a short - term range [23]. Live Hog - Spot market: The average price of live hogs in major production and sales areas increased [24]. - Market analysis: Support from the breeding side and weak demand [24]. - Reference view: Futures will oscillate weakly [24]. Egg - Spot market: The average egg price in the main production areas decreased [25]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply and weak demand [25]. - Reference view: It is recommended to wait and see for now [25]. Soybean No. 2 - Spot information: Import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [26]. - Market analysis: The market has digested the Sino - US trade talks, good weather in the US, and a peak in Brazilian soybean exports [26]. - Reference view: Futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [26]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are provided [27]. - Market analysis: Uncertain US tariff policies, international factors, and domestic supply pressure with weak demand [27]. - Reference view: Futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [27]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are provided [28]. - Market analysis: Increased supply pressure abroad, weak international oil prices, and increased domestic supply with weak demand [28]. - Reference view: Futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [28]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The price of rapeseed meal in Dongguan increased [29]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply in the near - term and tight in the far - term, and weak downstream demand [29]. - Reference view: Watch the performance of the 2509 contract at the previous high - price platform [29]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The price of rapeseed oil in Dongguan increased [30]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply in the near - term and tight in the far - term, neutral demand, and high inventory [30]. - Reference view: The 2509 contract will likely oscillate in a short - term range [30]. Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased [31]. - Market analysis: Complex US interest - rate cut expectations, global tariff issues, and domestic policy support. Raw material problems and inventory declines [31]. - Reference view: It is recommended to relieve defenses at high prices based on the island - shaped technical pattern [31]. Shanghai Aluminum - Spot information: The Shanghai spot aluminum price increased [32]. - Market analysis: Stable supply, weakening demand in the off - season, and inventory reduction [32]. - Reference view: The 2507 contract will likely oscillate in a range [32]. Alumina - Spot information: The national average price of alumina decreased [33]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply, increased inventory, and weak demand [33]. - Reference view: The 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [33]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The national and East China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy increased [34]. - Market analysis: Cost support, supply surplus, and weakening demand in the off - season [34]. - Reference view: The 2511 contract will likely run strongly [34]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [36]. - Market analysis: Stabilizing upstream raw materials, stable supply, and weak demand [36]. - Reference view: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive ones can operate within a range [36]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged [37]. - Market analysis: Slight increase in supply, weak demand, and slow inventory digestion [37]. - Reference view: The 2507 contract will oscillate strongly at the bottom [37]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged [37]. - Market analysis: Stable supply, weak and differentiated demand, and weak overseas demand [37]. - Reference view: The 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and the support at previous lows should be watched [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel coil remained unchanged [38]. - Market analysis: Weak cost support, high supply pressure, and weak demand [38]. - Reference view: Low - level wide - range oscillation, wait and see [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The Shanghai rebar price decreased [39]. - Market analysis: Stabilizing raw materials, low inventory, and weak demand in the off - season [40]. - Reference view: Treat with a light - position, low - buying strategy in the short term [40]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The Shanghai hot - rolled coil price remained unchanged [41]. - Market analysis: Stabilizing raw materials, low inventory, and rising apparent demand [41]. - Reference view: Treat with a light - position, low - buying strategy [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The prices of iron ore indexes and futures are provided [41]. - Market analysis: Increased supply, decreased demand, and high inventory pressure [41]. - Reference view: The 2509 contract will likely maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [42]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The prices of coking coal and coke remained unchanged [42]. - Market analysis: Supply contraction expectation for coking coal, weakening demand for both coking coal and coke [42]. - Operation suggestion: Mainly oscillate recently, pay attention to steel mills' inventory destocking and policy implementation [42].

安粮期货期权数据报告 商品期权数据研报 2025 年 6 月 12 日 玉米期价小幅回落，期权隐波小幅下降 豆粕期价持续上涨，期权隐波保持稳定 内容摘要 玉米期价小幅回落，期货主力合约 C2507 报 收于 2372 元/吨。玉米期权成交 81334 手，持仓 量为 406897 手，成交量 PCR 为 0.603，今日玉 米期权成交量最高的合约为 C2507 合约，其占总 成交量比例为 71%左右。期权加权隐含波动率为 10.22%,30 日历史波动率为 7.93%，期权隐波小 幅下降。 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 1 / 5 豆粕期价持续上涨，期货主力合约 M2509 报 收于 3049 元/吨。豆粕期权成交 444073 手，持 仓量为 1011884 手，成交量 PCR 为 0.900，目前 成交量集中在虚值期权。期权加权隐含波动率 为 17.12%，30 日历史波动率为 11.94%,期权隐 波保持稳定。 安粮期货研究所 期权组 TEL:0551-62879960 张莎 期货从业资格号： F03088817 投资咨询证号： Z0019577 总部地址：合 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Global market shows a differentiated pattern, with the Fed's rate - cut expectations constrained by inflation resilience and the ECB hinting at the end of the easing cycle. The equity market is supported by loose funds, but external disturbances and volume - energy sustainability should be watched [3]. - Crude oil may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but its upside is limited in the long - term without major geopolitical impacts on supply [4]. - Gold is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, and investors should pay attention to US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [5][6]. - Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation, and US inflation data will affect its short - term direction [7]. - Most chemical products are expected to have a weak or bearish short - term trend, with supply - demand contradictions and inventory changes being important influencing factors [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. - Rubber may have a weak rebound after the short - term negative factors are realized, but it is still affected by the oversupply situation [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price is in an oscillation range, and the progress of Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment should be watched [19]. - Agricultural products show different trends. Corn may oscillate in the short - term, peanuts may decline slightly but have limited downside, cotton may be strong in the short - term, and the prices of other agricultural products are also affected by supply - demand and seasonal factors [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. - Metal prices have different trends. Copper may touch the bubble price line, aluminum may oscillate in a range, alumina shows a weak adjustment, and other metals are also affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and global economic situation [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - Black metal products' prices also vary. Stainless steel may oscillate at a low level, and steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil can be considered for light - position long positions at low prices, while iron ore and coal may oscillate in the short - term [41][42][43][44][45][46] Summary by Industry Macro - Index - Market analysis: Global markets are differentiated. The Fed's rate - cut expectations are constrained, and the ECB hints at the end of the easing cycle. The central bank maintains a "broad credit, stable currency" policy. The equity market is supported by loose funds, with capital flowing to non - banking finance and technology sectors. Index futures show short - covering and a decline in the PCR indicator [3]. - Reference view: Pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's policy implementation. Short - term holding along the 5 - day moving average is advisable. Be wary of the risk of insufficient volume energy [3]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The second - round Sino - US negotiations reach a "framework agreement in principle," and the oil price may oscillate strongly. Focus on the key level of $65 per barrel for WTI [4]. - Market analysis: OPEC lowers global demand growth forecasts, and US policies cause concerns about demand. Although US crude oil inventories decline, refined product inventories increase. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase supply uncertainty, and OPEC+ plans to increase production [4]. - Reference view: Watch whether WTI can break through $65 per barrel in the short - term. In the long - term, the upside is limited without major geopolitical impacts [4]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: US economic resilience pressures short - term gold prices, but multiple factors support it in the long - term. Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks limit the downside space, and the Fed's policy also affects the price [5]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold futures warehouse receipts are stable with a slight increase. The spot price has a discount compared to the futures price [6]. - Operation suggestion: Gold is expected to oscillate. Investors should watch US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [6]. Silver - Market price: On June 11, the international spot silver price oscillated narrowly [7]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts increased significantly. Global economic growth expectations are lowered, and trade tensions ease, reducing the safe - haven demand for silver [7]. - Operation suggestion: Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to US inflation data [7]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The East China spot price decreased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: Oil price fluctuations affect PTA costs. PTA device maintenance and restart coexist, with an overall increase in the operating rate and a decrease in inventory days. Polyester and textile loads decline, and weak orders may intensify supply - demand contradictions [8]. - Reference view: It may oscillate bearishly in the short - term [8]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The East China spot price is flat, and the basis is positive [9]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows a slight decline in the overall operating rate and an increase in coal - based production. Demand is weak due to the off - season. Inventories in the East China main port increase, and future arrivals may limit the upside [9]. - Reference view: The price may be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [9]. PVC - Spot information: The East China 5 - type PVC spot price increased, and the ethylene - calcium price difference decreased [10][11]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, but downstream demand is still weak. Inventories decreased. The futures price oscillated at a low level without significant fundamental improvement [10][11]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [11]. PP - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions fluctuate slightly [12]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, and production volume rose. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream orders decreased. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price oscillated at a low level [12]. - Reference view: Demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. Plastic - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions have different changes [14]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The downstream average operating rate changed little. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price may oscillate [14]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price may oscillate in the short - term [14]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The heavy - soda prices in different regions are stable [15]. - Market analysis: The overall operating rate and production volume increased. Factory inventories increased slightly, and social inventories decreased. Demand is average, and the market lacks new drivers [15]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: The 5mm glass prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: The operating rate and production volume decreased slightly. Inventories increased, and demand is weak. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [17]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade negotiations and typhoons affect the price. The supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season. Downstream tire operating rates decline, and trade - war concerns suppress demand, but there is a rebound expectation after the negative factors are realized [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream operating rates. It may start a weak rebound after short - term negative factors are realized [18]. Methanol - Spot information: The East China spot price increased, and prices in other regions vary [19]. - Market analysis: The futures price increased slightly. Port inventories increased. Supply pressure is high, and demand from MTO devices recovers, while traditional downstream demand is in the off - season [19]. - Reference view: The futures price is in an oscillation range. Watch Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: Corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [20]. - Market analysis: Good weather in US corn - growing areas and Sino - US trade relations affect imports. The domestic market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with tight supply in the short - term. Wheat substitution and weather are key factors. Downstream demand is weak [20][21]. - Reference view: The corn futures price may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short - term [21]. Peanut - Spot price: Peanut prices in different regions are provided [22]. - Market analysis: The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. The market is in the inventory - consumption period, with low imports and low inventory levels. Demand is in the off - season, but low inventories may support the price [22]. - Reference view: The peanut price may decline slightly in the short - term, but the downside is limited. Band - trading is advisable [22]. Cotton - Spot information: The Chinese cotton spot price index and Xinjiang cotton arrival price are provided [23]. - Market analysis: Sino - US relations ease, boosting the market. In the long - term, cotton supply is expected to be abundant. In the short - term, low imports and low commercial inventories support the price, but downstream demand is weak [23]. - Reference view: The cotton price may be strong in the short - term. Watch whether it can fill the previous gap [23]. Pig - Spot market: The average price of live pigs in major production and sales areas increased slightly [24]. - Market analysis: Farmers resist low - price sales, reducing supply. Demand is weak due to warm weather, and terminal consumption lacks improvement [24]. - Reference view: The live - pig futures price may oscillate weakly. Watch the slaughter situation [24]. Egg - Spot market: The national average egg price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing chickens decreases, and old - hen culling increases, supporting the price. Demand may increase in the tourism and catering industries during the summer vacation, but the plum - rain season suppresses consumption [25]. - Reference view: The egg futures price is undervalued. It is advisable to wait and see [25]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The rapeseed meal price in Fangchenggang increased [27]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is weak due to a small price difference with soybean meal and the off - season. Watch Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [27]. - Reference view: Watch the performance of rapeseed meal futures at the upper pressure level [27]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The rapeseed oil price in Fangchenggang is stable [28]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short - to - medium - term [28]. - Reference view: The rapeseed oil futures price may oscillate near the platform [28]. Soybean No. 2 - Spot information: Import costs of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans are provided [29]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market confidence. Good weather in US soybean - growing areas and the peak season of Brazilian soybean exports affect the price [29]. - Reference view: The soybean No. 2 futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [29]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: Soybean meal prices in different regions are provided [30]. - Market analysis: Pay attention to Sino - US trade talks. Internationally, trade talks boost confidence, and tariffs and weather are key factors. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and downstream demand is weak, but inventory accumulation is slow [30]. - Reference view: The soybean meal futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [30]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Soybean oil prices in different regions are provided [31]. - Market analysis: Internationally, supply pressure and falling oil prices put pressure on soybean oil. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and demand is in the off - season, with inventory accumulation pressure increasing [31]. - Reference view: The soybean oil futures price may oscillate in the short - term [31] Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the import copper ore index also rose [32]. - Market analysis: US economic data reduces recession concerns and rate - cut expectations. Global tariffs and domestic policies affect the market. Raw material issues and inventory changes make the market more complex [33]. - Reference view: The copper price may touch the bubble price line. Consider removing defenses based on signals [33]. Aluminum - Spot information: The Shanghai spot aluminum price increased [34]. - Market analysis: The cost of alumina increases, supporting the theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum. Supply is expected to be in surplus, and demand is in the off - season. Inventories decline, and the spot market is at a premium, but demand limits the upside [34]. - Reference view: The aluminum futures price may oscillate in a range [34]. Alumina - Spot information: The national average alumina price decreased slightly, and prices in different regions vary [35]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market sentiment. Supply slightly decreases as smelters' profits improve. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories start to accumulate. The price is under pressure [35]. - Reference view: The alumina futures price shows a weak adjustment trend [35]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The national and East China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy are stable [36]. - Market analysis: The high price of scrap aluminum supports the cost. Supply is in surplus as the industry expands. Demand from new - energy vehicles and electronics is resilient but limited by tariffs and the global economy. Inventories are high and may continue to accumulate [36]. - Reference view: The cast aluminum alloy futures price may be strong [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are stable [38]. - Market analysis: The upstream raw - material market shows signs of stabilization, supply is stable but the structure is adjusting, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at the bottom [38]. - Reference view: Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can trade in the range [38]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon are stable [39]. - Market analysis: Supply increases slightly, and demand is weak as downstream industries cut production or have low operating rates. Inventories are digested slowly, and the price is under pressure. Technically, it may rebound [39]. - Reference view: The industrial silicon futures price may oscillate strongly at the bottom [39]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [40]. - Market analysis: Supply shows no obvious contraction, and demand is weak overall, with some differentiation. Exports decline. The market's supply - demand contradiction is not alleviated [40]. - Reference view: The polysilicon futures price may oscillate. Watch the previous low - point support [40] Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel coil increased [41]. - Market analysis: Technically, it may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. Fundamentally, the raw - material market is quiet, and cost supports the price, but weak demand restricts the upside [41]. - Reference view: It may oscillate widely at a low level. Wait and see for now [41]. Rebar - Spot information: The price of rebar in Shanghai is stable [42]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, and demand is in the off - season, but inventories are low and the valuation is low [42][43]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [43]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is stable [44]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, apparent demand recovers, and inventories are low with a low valuation [44]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [44]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The iron ore price index and futures price are provided [45]. - Market analysis: Supply pressure eases as global shipments increase and domestic production rises slightly. Demand weakens as steel - mill operating rates decline, but current iron - water production is still high. Port inventories increase, and demand in the off - season is expected to be weak. Sino - US tariff easing boosts sentiment, but steel - billet exports are uncertain. Non - mainstream ore production cuts support the price, but reduced steel - mill profits may suppress demand [45]. - Reference view: The iron ore futures price may oscillate in the short - term. Watch port inventory

宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...

Group 1: Rapeseed Oil - Spot price: The price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Dongguan Zhongliang, Dongguan is 9300 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Market analysis: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed. Near - term imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while long - term supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and short - to - medium - term inventory may remain high [2] - Reference view: The Rapeseed Oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot price: The spot prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 2840 yuan/ton, 2920 yuan/ton, 2850 yuan/ton, and 2840 yuan/ton respectively [3] - Market analysis: The US tariff policy is changeable. Sino - US leaders' phone call boosts market confidence. US soybean planting is going smoothly, and Brazil is in the peak export period. Domestic soybean supply is recovering, and the supply pressure of soybean meal is emerging. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory accumulation is slow [3] - Reference view: Currently dominated by sentiment, soybean meal may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot price: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, North China and Huanghuai are 2206 yuan/ton and 2413 yuan/ton respectively. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2270 - 2300 yuan/ton [4] - Market analysis: The weather in the US corn - producing areas is good. The domestic corn market is in the transition period, with tight supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed field. Downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. Pay attention to the new wheat listing and weather changes [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot price: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78740 - 79010, with a rise of 0, and a premium of 20 - 150. The imported copper ore index is - 43.29, up 0.72 [5] - Market analysis: US non - farm data eases recession concerns and reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts. Global tariff confrontation continues. Domestic policies boost market sentiment. Raw material problems persist, and domestic copper inventory is falling [5] - Reference view: Copper prices may test the bubble node again. Wait for weak signals [5] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot price: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 60800 yuan/ton and 59150 yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1650 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - Market analysis: The raw material end shows signs of stabilization. Supply is stable but the structure is adjusting. Demand is weak. The market may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [6] - Reference view: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can conduct range operations [6] Group 6: Steel - Spot price: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3090. Tangshan's operating rate is 83.56%. Social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [7] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving. The cost is dynamically adjusted, and inventory is low. The market is dominated by macro - policy expectations in the short term, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [7] - Reference view: Steel is in the process of valuation repair. Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [7] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot price: The ex - warehouse price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port is 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shanxi Lvliang is 1070 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (a decline of 2.73%). The flat - price of coke in Rizhao Port is 1410 yuan/ton, unchanged. Steel mill coke inventory is at a 5 - month low but up 18% year - on - year [7] - Market analysis: Some coal mines in Shanxi reduce production due to environmental protection, but imported coal remains high. Coking plant capacity utilization rate decreases, and the loss per ton of coke expands. Iron - water production decreases slightly, and steel mill inventory pressure eases [7][8] - Reference view: The main coking coal and coke contracts may fluctuate in the near term. Pay attention to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [7][8] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot price: The Platts index of iron ore is 95.65. The price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 728, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 732. The closing price of the main iron ore contract is 707, down 0.71% from the previous trading day [9] - Market analysis: Global iron ore shipments increase. Domestic demand is under seasonal pressure. Port inventory is at a high level, suppressing prices. The main contract is in a sideways consolidation phase [9] - Reference view: The Iron Ore 2509 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory reduction speed and steel mill resumption of production. In the long term, prices may be further pressured [9] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: US non - farm data eases recession concerns. OPEC lowers global demand growth forecasts. US trade wars and geopolitical issues increase supply uncertainty. OPEC + agrees to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [10] - Reference view: The WTI main contract should focus on whether it can break through the 65 - dollar/barrel level in the short term. In the long term, without major geopolitical impacts on supply, the upside of crude oil is limited [10] Group 10: Rubber - Spot price: The prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13650 yuan/ton, 19800 yuan/ton, 15000 yuan/ton, and 13850 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of raw materials in Hat Yai are as follows: RSS3 is 65.9 baht/kg, latex is 56 baht/kg, cup lump is 44.9 baht/kg, and raw rubber is 62.26 baht/kg [11] - Market analysis: The US trade war policy is changeable. The supply of rubber is loose globally, and downstream tire operating rates decline. After the negative factors are realized, there is an expectation of a weak rebound [11][12] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. Supply exceeds demand, but a weak rebound pattern may start in the short term [12] Group 11: PVC - Spot price: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the two is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [13] - Market analysis: PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increases. Downstream demand shows no obvious improvement. Social inventory decreases [13] - Reference view: The fundamentals remain weak, and futures prices will fluctuate at a low level [13] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot price: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1364.63 yuan/ton, down 10.62 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1375 yuan/ton, 1400 yuan/ton, and 1350 yuan/ton respectively, with different changes [14] - Market analysis: The overall operating rate of soda ash increases, and production rises. Factory inventory slightly increases, and social inventory decreases. Downstream demand is average [14] - Reference view: The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate within the bottom - range in the short term [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - Rapeseed oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] - Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of new wheat listing and weather changes [4] - Copper prices have deviated from the moving - average system. This week, focus on its effectiveness as the basis for whether the defense is lifted [5] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [6][7] - Steel has started to repair its valuation, and a short - term bullish approach can be taken on dips [8] - Due to news disturbances, coking coal and coke will rebound from oversold levels at low positions [9] - Iron ore 2509 will mainly oscillate in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [10] - WTI crude oil will mainly oscillate around $60 - $65 per barrel [11] - Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound due to improved sentiment [12] - The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [13] - The soda ash futures market is expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term [14] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Information - Dongguan Zhongliang's imported third - grade rapeseed oil is priced at 9,260 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Soybean meal spot prices in Zhangjiagang are 2,770 yuan/ton, Tianjin 2,850 yuan/ton, Rizhao 2,790 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 2,780 yuan/ton [3] - The mainstream purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,206 yuan/ton; in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,413 yuan/ton; the purchase price at Jinzhou Port is 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton; at Bayuquan Port, it is 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton [4] - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,760 - 78,990 yuan, up 460 yuan, with a premium of flat - 150 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 43.29, up 0.72 [5] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 60,800 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 59,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,650 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,090 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [8] - The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [9] - The iron ore Platts index is 97.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [10] - The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole - latex 13,500 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 20,000 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 14,950 yuan/ton, and No. 20 rubber 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are: RSS3 63.87 Thai baht/kg, latex 56.5 Thai baht/kg, cup lump 49.5 Thai baht/kg, and raw rubber 60.5 Thai baht/kg [12] - The mainstream spot price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,680 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous period. The price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 320 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged [13] - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,373.75 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,400 yuan/ton, 1,450 yuan/ton, and 1,350 yuan/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged [14] Market Analysis - Rapeseed oil: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed one after another. In the near term, the supply of imported rapeseed is abundant, while in the long term, it is relatively tight. The downstream demand for rapeseed oil is neutral, and the inventory may remain high in the short and medium term [2] - Soybean meal: The Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions still exist. Tariff policies and weather are the main driving factors for international soybean prices. The sowing of US soybeans is going smoothly, and it is the peak export period for Brazilian soybeans. In China, the supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the supply pressure of soybean meal is becoming prominent, the trading volume is shrinking, and the downstream purchasing intention is weak [3] - Corn: The weather in US corn - producing areas is favorable for sowing and growth. The Sino - US trade relationship has eased, and there are concerns about long - term import pressure. In China, the corn market is in the off - season between old and new grains, the supply may be tight, wheat may replace corn in the feed field, and weather speculation will affect prices. The downstream demand is weak [4] - Copper: The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts this year. Global tariff confrontations continue, and China's support policies are boosting market sentiment. On the industrial side, raw material disturbances are intensifying, and domestic copper inventories are declining [5] - Lithium carbonate: The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is still high, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is changing. The prices of spot and futures are falling, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts [6] - Steel: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, the valuation is relatively low, the cost is dynamically changing, the inventory is at a low level, and the short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [8] - Coking coal and coke: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is gradually increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9] - Iron ore: The market has both bullish and bearish factors. The supply has slightly decreased, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has slightly declined, the overseas demand is differentiated, and news factors are suppressing the upward space [10] - Crude oil: The US - Iran negotiation has encountered setbacks, the Russia - Ukraine war has intensified, and the OPEC+ meeting has agreed to increase production in July, but there are objections. The supply may shrink, and the global demand is worrying [11] - Rubber: The supply is abundant, the US trade war and tariffs may suppress demand, and after the bearish factors are realized, the price may rebound due to improved sentiment [12] - PVC: The production capacity utilization rate has increased, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, the inventory has decreased, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [13] - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the inventory is slightly increasing, the demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Reports - Rapeseed oil contract 2509 may test the lower support platform in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] - Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of new wheat listing and weather changes [4] - Copper prices show signs of breaking away from the moving - average system, and attention should be paid to its effectiveness for defense [5] - Carbonate lithium contract 2507 may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [6][7] - Steel is starting to repair its valuation, and a short - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [8] - Coking coal and coke may rebound from oversold levels at low positions due to news disturbances [9] - Iron ore 2509 will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [10] - WTI crude oil will mainly fluctuate around $60 - $65 per barrel [11] - Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound with improved sentiment [12] - PVC futures prices will oscillate at a low level with a still - weak fundamental situation [13] - Soda ash futures prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term [14] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Dongguan Zhongliang, Dongguan, is 9,270 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - **Market Analysis**: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed. Near - month imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while far - month supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short and medium term [2] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: Spot prices in Zhangjiagang are 2,770 yuan/ton, Tianjin 2,850 yuan/ton, Rizhao 2,790 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 2,780 yuan/ton [3] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. Tariffs and weather drive international soybean prices. In China, soybean supply is recovering, and the supply pressure of soybean meal is emerging. Downstream procurement is weak, and inventories are slowly accumulating [3] Corn - **Spot Information**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,204 yuan/ton; in North China and Huanghuai, it is 2,423 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Analysis**: Abroad, good weather in US corn - growing areas eases concerns, but Sino - US trade may increase import pressure. Domestically, there is a supply shortage during the grain - transition period. Wheat may replace corn in feed use, and downstream demand is weak [4] Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,290 - 78,540 yuan, down 700 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 43.56, up 0.72 [5] - **Market Analysis**: US economic data and political factors affect the possible interest - rate cut path. Global trade frictions continue. Domestic policies support the market. Raw material issues persist, and copper inventories are declining [5] Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is 60,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade (99.2%) is 59,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - **Market Analysis**: Cost pressure is increasing, ore prices are falling, and inventories are high. Supply capacity utilization is above average, and demand is differentiated. Phosphoric acid iron - lithium batteries and ternary batteries are shrinking [6] Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,090 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 83.56%, social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [8] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a lower valuation. Policy supports the real - estate industry. Raw material prices are weak, and inventory levels are low [8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and coke inventory is 246.10 million tons [9] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is low due to steel mill production cuts, and inventories are slightly increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and Australian powder ore (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [10] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments are falling, Brazilian shipments are rising, and port inventories are decreasing. Domestic steel mill demand is weak, and overseas demand is differentiated [10] Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: No specific spot price information provided - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production decisions affect supply. OPEC has lowered global demand growth forecasts, and trade disputes raise concerns about demand [11] Rubber - **Spot Information**: The price of domestic full - latex rubber is 13,500 yuan/ton, Thai smoked three - piece rubber is 20,000 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 14,950 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber is 14,100 yuan/ton [12] - **Market Analysis**: Trade - war tariffs and oversupply drag down rubber prices. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound. Supply is abundant with full - scale tapping in domestic and Southeast Asian regions [12] PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,680 yuan/ton, and ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [13] - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization is increasing, demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and social inventories are decreasing [13] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,373.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [14] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is increasing with a higher start - up rate and production. Inventories are slightly increasing, and demand is average, with downstream resistance to high - priced goods [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Vegetable Oils and Grains** - Rapeseed oil 2509 contract may oscillate within a platform range in the short - term [1] - Soybean meal may oscillate weakly in the short - term [1] - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term, with attention on new wheat listings and weather changes [1] - **Metals** - Copper prices will continue to fluctuate around the moving average system, with overall changes being minor, and the defense line set at the upper edge of the moving average system [2] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4] - Steel is starting to repair its valuation, and a short - term bullish approach on dips is recommended [5] - Coking coal and coke may rebound from oversold lows due to news disturbances [6] - Iron ore 2509 will oscillate in the short - term, and traders are advised to be cautious [7] - **Energy and Chemicals** - WTI crude oil will mainly oscillate around $60 - $65 per barrel [8] - Rubber will be weak overall, with attention on downstream rubber processing plant operating rates [9] - PVC futures prices will oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [10] - Soda ash futures will continue to oscillate within the bottom - range in the short - term [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Vegetable Oils and Grains - **Rapeseed Oil** - **Spot Price**: The price of imported Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Qinzhou is 9300 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Market Analysis**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic rapeseed will be listed soon. Near - term imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while long - term supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and short - to - medium - term inventory may remain high [1] - **Soybean Meal** - **Spot Price**: Spot prices in various regions have declined, such as 2770 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang (-30) [1] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. US soybean sowing is going smoothly, and Brazil is in the peak export season. Domestic soybean supply is recovering, and the pressure on soybean meal supply is emerging. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulation is slow [1] - **Corn** - **Spot Price**: Different regions have different prices, such as 2204 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia [1] - **Market Analysis**: US corn growing conditions are good, and there are concerns about long - term imports. Domestically, there is a supply shortage during the transition period between old and new grains. Wheat may replace corn in the feed sector, and weather will affect prices. Downstream demand is weak [1] Metals - **Copper** - **Spot Price**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78350 - 78620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2] - **Market Analysis**: US employment data and political factors affect the possible end of the interest - rate cut cycle. Domestic policies support the market. Raw material supply issues persist, and copper inventory is declining, making the market more complex [2] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Spot Price**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 60800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade (99.2%) is 59150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] - **Market Analysis**: Cost pressure is increasing, ore prices are falling, and inventory is high. Supply is still above average, and demand is divided. Overall, prices are falling, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts [3] - **Steel** - **Spot Price**: Shanghai rebar is 3090 yuan, with a Tangshan开工率 of 83.56%, social inventory of 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory of 200.4 million tons [5] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry. Demand is down year - on - year, raw material prices are weak, and inventory is low. The market is driven by policy expectations and fundamentals [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Spot Price**: The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton [6] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is weak due to steel mill production cuts, inventory is slowly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [6] - **Iron Ore** - **Spot Price**: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2, and the price of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder is 735 yuan [7] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments are down, Brazilian shipments are up, and port inventory is decreasing. Domestic steel mill demand is weak, and overseas demand is divided [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Analysis**: Tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production decisions have led to supply concerns. OPEC has lowered future demand growth forecasts, and there are concerns about global demand [8] - **Rubber** - **Spot Price**: Different types of rubber have different prices, such as 13350 yuan/ton for domestic whole - latex [9] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas orders and domestic demand should be monitored. The trade war and oversupply are dragging down prices. Supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season [9] - **PVC** - **Spot Price**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [10] - **Market Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has increased, demand is still mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased. The fundamentals are still weak, and futures prices are oscillating at low levels [10] - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Price**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1371.88 yuan/ton, down 6.25 yuan/ton [11] - **Market Analysis**: Production has increased due to new capacity. Inventory has decreased, and demand is average. The market lacks new drivers and may oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [11]

1、现货市场：钦州中粮进口三级菜油 9300 元/吨，较上一交易日跌 70 元/吨。 2、市场分析：供应方面，端午节后，国产菜籽即将陆续上市。后市，近月进口菜籽到港供 应较为充裕，远月进口菜籽到港暂较为偏紧。菜油下游需求中性。库存端，菜油库存中短 期或维持高位。 3、参考观点：菜油 2509 合约，短线于或平台区间内震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区节前现货报价：张家港 2800 元/吨（-70）、天津 2870 元/吨（-70）、 日照 2810 元/吨（-60）、东莞 2800 元/吨（-60）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美贸易达成阶段性协议，但长期矛盾仍存。 （2）国际大豆：关税政策和天气为价格主要驱动因素。美豆播种顺利，巴西大豆出口高峰 期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：大豆供给逐渐恢复，油厂开机率和压榨恢复正常，豆粕供给压力逐 渐凸显。豆粕成交缩量，下游采购意愿偏弱，随着下游企业安全库存建立，下游贸易商维 持随用随采、滚动补库为主。油厂大豆库存回升至高位，豆粕库存累库速度短期较缓。 参考观点：豆粕短线或震荡偏弱。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2204 元/吨；华北黄淮 ...

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Yijiang is 8,200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - International soybean situation: It's the U.S. soybean sowing and growing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season. Brazil's soybean harvest is almost complete, and the South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant. The USDA May 2025 report shows the 2025/26 soybean yield forecast is 52.5 bushels/acre, up from 50.7 bushels/acre in 2024/25 [1] - Domestic industry: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, the soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 2,840 yuan/ton (unchanged), Tianjin 2,940 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Rizhao 2,870 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), Dongguan 2,860 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton) [2] - Market analysis: There is a phased agreement in Sino - U.S. trade, but long - term contradictions remain. Tariff policies and weather are the main drivers of international soybean prices. The supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the oil mill operating rate is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to change from tight to loose. The high price of soybean meal boosts market transactions, and the downstream feed demand was underestimated. The soybean inventory of oil mills has returned to a high level, and the inventory accumulation speed of soybean meal is slow in the short term [2] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia are 2,195 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it's 2,412 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,270 - 2,290 yuan/ton [3] - Market analysis: Externally, the Sino - U.S. joint statement on tariff reduction leads to an expectation of loose long - term corn imports, with limited short - term impact on domestic futures prices. The May USDA report has a negative impact on U.S. corn futures prices. Domestically, the supply pressure is relieved as the weather warms up, the planting season arrives, and the remaining grain in the producing areas is basically sold out. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment causes the futures price to decline [3] - Reference view: The short - term downward momentum of the futures price weakens, and there may be a rebound demand after the decline [3] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,130 - 78,340 yuan, down 250 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 43.56, up 0.72 [4] - Market analysis: Global tariff disputes and the U.S. tariff policy fluctuations make the market volatile. Domestic support policies give a positive market expectation. The raw material supply problem persists, and the domestic copper inventory is declining. The game between reality and expectation, and between the domestic and foreign markets makes the market more complex [4] - Reference view: Continue to pay attention to the impact of the moving - average system on copper prices, and set the overall defense line at the upper edge of the moving - average system [4] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 61,000 yuan/ton (down 250 yuan/ton), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 59,350 yuan/ton (down 250 yuan/ton). The price difference between the two is 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5] - Market analysis: The cost of lithium carbonate production has decreased, but the profit margin has not expanded. The production is still at a high level, and the supply may increase further. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. The inventory has decreased overall. Pay attention to the upstream production reduction [5] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. It's advisable to go short on rallies [5][6] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan. The Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%. The social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [7] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, with a weaker near - term and stronger long - term situation. The cost is dynamically changing, and the inventory level is low. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [7] - Reference view: Due to the declining demand, it's advisable to wait and see until the market stabilizes [7] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) in Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [8] - Market analysis: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is low, the inventory is gradually increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [8] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke may fluctuate weakly at a low level [8] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2. The price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [9] - Market analysis: The supply and demand factors are intertwined. The global iron ore shipment has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has slightly declined, and the overseas demand is differentiated. The U.S. tariff policy and environmental protection restrictions suppress the price increase [9] - Reference view: The iron ore 2509 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Traders should be cautious [9] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: The U.S. - Iran negotiation has encountered setbacks, and the OPEC+ production increase plan has uncertainties. The supply may shrink. The OPEC has lowered the global demand growth forecast, and the geopolitical situation is unstable [10] - Reference view: The WTI main contract may fluctuate between 58 - 65 dollars/barrel [10] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The U.S. trade war and tariff policies suppress the rubber price. The supply is abundant as the rubber - producing areas are in the harvesting season. The global supply and demand are both loose [10] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. The rubber market is weak overall [10] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 350 yuan/ton, unchanged [11] - Market analysis: The production enterprise operating rate has decreased slightly. The demand is still mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory has decreased. The futures price is oscillating weakly at a low level [11] - Reference view: The fundamentals are still weak, and the futures price will oscillate weakly at a low level [11] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,402.50 yuan/ton, down 1.88 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: The supply has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is average. The market lacks new driving forces [12] - Reference view: The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate within the bottom - range in the short term [12]