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安粮期货投资早参-20250516
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 05:40
(3)国内豆粕供需面:大豆供给逐渐恢复,油厂开机率提升,豆粕供给预期由紧转为宽松。 下游贸易商物理库存低位,养殖终端需求良好,提振豆粕成交与提货。油厂大豆库存回升 至高位,豆粕库存累库速度短期较缓。 参考观点:豆粕短线或震荡运行。 1、现货市场:日照嘉吉一级豆油 8130 元/吨,较上一交易日持平。 2、国际大豆:当前时间窗口下,正处美豆播种、省长与南美豆收割、出口季,目前巴西豆 收割基本完成。总体来看,南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。美国农业部 5 月 US DA 报告显示,2025/26 年度大豆单产预估为 52.5 蒲式耳/英亩,2024/25 年度预估为 50.7 蒲式 耳/英亩。 3、国内产业层面:综合供需端,豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段,关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后,豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点:豆油 2509 合约,短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息:43 豆粕各地区现货报价:张家港 2980 元/吨(-20)、天津 2970 元/吨(-70)、 东莞 3030 元/吨(-40)。 市场分析:(1)宏观面: 中美经贸会谈将在瑞士进行,关注会谈内容。 (2)国际大豆:US ...
安粮期货商品期货
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 06:50
1、现货市场:日照嘉吉一级豆油 8130 元/吨,较上一交易日持平。 2、国际大豆:当前时间窗口下,正处美豆播种、省长与南美豆收割、出口季,目前巴西豆 收割基本完成。总体来看,南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。美国农业部 5 月 US DA 报告显示,2025/26 年度大豆单产预估为 52.5 蒲式耳/英亩,2024/25 年度预估为 50.7 蒲式 耳/英亩。 3、国内产业层面:综合供需端,豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段,关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后,豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点:豆油 2509 合约,短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息:43 豆粕各地区现货报价:张家港 3000 元/吨(10)、天津 3040 元/吨(-40)、 日照 2950 元/吨(-60)、东莞 3070 元/吨(20)。 市场分析:(1)宏观面: 中美经贸会谈将在瑞士进行,关注会谈内容。 (2)国际大豆:USDA5 月报告发布,美豆产量下调,全球库存增加。市场交易重心转移至 北美播种季,巴西大豆进入出口高峰期。 (3)国内豆粕供需面:大豆供给逐渐恢复,油厂开机率提升,豆粕供给预期由紧转为宽松。 下游贸易商物 ...
安粮期货商品期货投资早参-20250514
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 03:11
1、现货市场:日照嘉吉一级豆油 8130 元/吨,较上一交易日涨 50 元/吨。 2、国际大豆:当前时间窗口下,正处美豆播种、省长与南美豆收割、出口季,目前巴西豆 收割基本完成。总体来看,南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。美国农业部 5 月 US DA 报告显示,2025/26 年度大豆单产预估为 52.5 蒲式耳/英亩,2024/25 年度预估为 50.7 蒲式 耳/英亩。 3、国内产业层面:综合供需端,豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段,关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后,豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点:豆油 2509 合约,短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息:43 豆粕各地区现货报价:张家港 2990 元/吨(-20)、天津 3080 元/吨(0)、 日照 3010 元/吨(-20)、东莞 3050 元/吨(-10)。 市场分析:(1)宏观面: 中美经贸会谈将在瑞士进行,关注会谈内容。 (2)国际大豆:USDA5 月报告发布,美豆产量下调,全球库存增加。市场交易重心转移至 北美播种季,巴西大豆进入出口高峰期。 (3)国内豆粕供需面:大豆供给逐渐恢复,油厂开机率提升,豆粕供给预期由紧转为宽松。 ...
安粮期货碳酸锂期货周报-20250513
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 06:28
安粮期货研究报告 安粮期货商品研究报告 碳酸锂期货周报(20250512-0516) 安粮期货研究所 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 有色小组 研究员 李雨馨:从业资格号:F3023505 投资咨询号:Z0013987 助理研究员: 杨明明:从业资格号:F03136091 初审: 2025 年 5 月 12 日 沈欣萌:从业资格号: F3029146 投资咨询号: Z0014147 复审: 李雨馨:从业资格号:F3023505 投资咨询号:Z0013987 逻辑判断: 结论: 综述;成本端持续松动,锂价偏弱震荡 品种: 碳酸锂 本周看法: 成本端持续松动,锂价偏弱震荡 上周看法: 关注 6 万元/吨整数大关 周度建议: 建议投资者可逢高做空 总部地址:安徽省合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线: 400—626—9988 网站地址:www.alqh.com 1 / 7 安粮期货研究报告 上周碳酸锂期货价格加速下行,周四空头部分止盈,带动期价小幅反弹。然而,周五空头势力再度增 仓打压,致使碳酸锂期货价格整体周跌幅约达 5%。从基本面剖析,成本端各类矿石价格 ...
安粮期货大豆、淀粉报告
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 06:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Related Products**: The soybean market is influenced by international production and domestic supply - demand. The soybean oil 2509 contract may have short - term range - bound oscillations, and the soybean meal may experience short - term oscillations. The domestic soybean oil mid - term de - stocking cycle may end, and inventory may rebound. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price will maintain a relatively strong performance in the short term due to supply tightness and weak demand [2]. - **Copper**: The copper price's monthly K - line shows a balance between yin and yang. In the short term, investors can try to enter the market based on the moving average system [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium 2507 contract may have a weak - side oscillation, and investors can short at high prices. The cost support is weakening, and the price is under pressure [4][5]. - **Steel**: The steel fundamentals are gradually improving, and the market presents a pattern of strong supply and demand. The black negative feedback is gradually reflected in the market. Investors can consider going long at low prices for far - month contracts after May [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. They will have a low - level weak - side oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a mix of long and short factors. The 2509 contract will have short - term oscillations [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market has oscillations. In the medium - long term, the price center will move down, but the WTI main contract has technical support at $55 per barrel [9]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market is mainly driven by fundamentals, with a loose supply - demand situation globally. It is running weakly, and investors can pay attention to the support at around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10][11]. - **PVC**: The demand for PVC is weak, and the futures price may have low - level oscillations [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and the futures market will have wide - range oscillations in the short term [13]. 3. Summary by Product Soybean and Related Products - **Spot Information**: The price of Rizhao Jiji first - grade soybean oil is 8,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 43 - protein soybean meal prices in different regions have declined [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest, and the US soybean production is expected to change. Domestically, the supply of soybean oil may increase, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. Corn - **Spot Information**: Different regions have different corn acquisition prices, such as 2,194 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia and 2,439 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the Sino - US tariff dispute on the corn market is limited. Domestically, there is a short - term supply shortage and weak demand [2]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,060 - 78,490 yuan, up 70 yuan, with a discount of 50 - premium of 20 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress, and domestic policies are supportive. However, the raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory is rapidly declining [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is priced at 65,250 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan, and the industrial - grade is 63,550 yuan/ton, also down 450 yuan [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is high, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the inventory is accumulating [4]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The Shanghai rebar price is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, the cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The iron ore Platts index is 98.6, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian 62% Fe powder ore is 756 yuan [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand factors are mixed, and the market is affected by the US tariff policy [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts boost the price, but the OPEC+ production increase and trade - war concerns affect the price. The medium - long - term price center will move down [9]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: Not provided comprehensively in the text. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, and the demand may be suppressed by the US auto tariff [10][11]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is decreasing slightly [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,416.88 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is slightly decreasing, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is average. The market will have wide - range oscillations [13].
安粮期货豆粕日报-20250512
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 05:46
(2)国际大豆:市场交易重心转移至北美播种季,巴西大豆即将进入出口高峰期。 (3)国内豆粕供需面:关注节后巴西大豆清关情况,当前现货偏紧,随着到港大豆集中, 油厂开机恢复,现货偏紧的情况逐步缓解。节后下游开启补库阶段,短期或将提振豆粕成 交。 参考观点:豆粕短线或震荡运行。 1、现货市场:日照嘉吉一级豆油 8080 元/吨,较上一交易日持平。 2、国际大豆:当前时间窗口下,正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季,目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看,南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。 3、国内产业层面:综合供需端,豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段,关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后,豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点:豆油 2509 合约,短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息:43 豆粕各地区现货报价:张家港 3120 元/吨(20)、天津 3160 元/吨(-140)、 日照 3110 元/吨(10)、东莞 3100 元/吨(-40)。 市场分析:(1)宏观面: 中美经贸会谈将在瑞士进行,关注会谈内容。 现货信息:东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2194 元/吨;华北黄淮重 点企业新玉米主流收 ...
安粮期货日刊-20250509
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 06:09
Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil from Rizhao Cargill is 8080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - International soybean situation: It is currently the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazilian soybean harvesting almost completed. South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant [2] - Domestic industry situation: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [2] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Tianjin 3300 yuan/ton (unchanged), Rizhao 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Dongguan 3270 yuan/ton (+50) [3] - Market analysis: Macro - level, Sino - U.S. economic and trade talks will be held in Switzerland. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. In the domestic market, pay attention to the clearance of Brazilian soybeans after the holiday. Currently, the spot is tight, but it will ease as more soybeans arrive and oil mills resume operation. Downstream replenishment after the holiday may boost short - term trading volume [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn are 2184 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia, 2404 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton and 2250 - 2270 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import from Brazil. Domestically, the supply is tight during the new - old grain transition period, and the downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price is likely to rise. It is advisable to take a short - term long position [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78290 - 78580 yuan, down 145 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [5] - Market analysis: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and there are uncertainties. Domestic policies support the market. The raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory in China is declining rapidly [6] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper price is balanced. In the short term, it is advisable to participate based on the moving average system [6] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 65700 yuan/ton (- 500) and 64000 yuan/ton (- 500) respectively, with a price difference of 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7] - Market analysis: The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is increasing, and the demand is improving but not strong enough [7] - Inventory situation: The weekly inventory is increasing. As of April 24, the weekly inventory is 131864 tons (+259). The monthly inventory in March increased by 47% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month [8] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short at high prices [8] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [9] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. The cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [9] - Reference view: After the macro - level negative factors are digested, it is advisable to take a long position at low prices for far - month contracts after May [9] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of coking coal (Meng 5) is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton. The port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 337.38 million tons and 246.10 million tons respectively [10] - Market analysis: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [10] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke may rebound weakly at a low level, but the upward space is limited [10] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 762 yuan [11] - Market analysis: The supply and demand factors are mixed. The global shipping volume has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has increased, but the overseas demand is differentiated. The U.S. tariff policy has an impact on the market [11] - Reference view: The iron ore 2505 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Traders should be cautious [11] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: The Fed's interest - rate decision and geopolitical conflicts have an impact on the market. OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The demand may be affected by the trade war in the second quarter [12] - Reference view: The WTI main contract may fluctuate between 55 - 60 US dollars per barrel [12] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the U.S. "equal - tariff" policy on rubber prices has been mostly priced in. The supply is increasing as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees start to be tapped. The global supply and demand are both loose, and the trade - war narrative may affect the demand [13] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. The main contract has support around 14,000 yuan/ton [13] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4660 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [14] - Market analysis: The production enterprise operating rate has increased slightly. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and the inventory has decreased [14] - Reference view: The futures price may fluctuate at a low level due to weak demand [14] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1415 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices in different regions are also unchanged [15] - Market analysis: The operating rate has decreased slightly, the production has decreased, the inventory has increased slightly, and the demand is average. The downstream is more willing to buy low - priced goods [15] - Reference view: The futures market may fluctuate widely in the short term [15]
安粮期货豆粕日报-20250508
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 05:40
Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8080 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - International soybean situation: It is currently the US soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazil's soybean harvest almost completed, and a bumper South American new - crop is likely [2] - Domestic industry: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending, and the inventory may rebound after the arrival and customs clearance of South American imported soybeans [2] - Reference view: The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract may be range - bound [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Dongguan are 3090 yuan/ton (-10), 3300 yuan/ton (120), and 3270 yuan/ton (50) respectively [3] - Market analysis: The Sino - US trade tariff issue remains unresolved, affecting Sino - US soybean trade; the market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak; the current spot supply of soybean meal is tight, but it will gradually ease, and post - holiday downstream replenishment may boost short - term trading volume [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may run weakly in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, North China and Huanghuai are 2184 yuan/ton and 2404 yuan/ton respectively; the purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton and 2250 - 2270 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Market analysis: The Sino - US tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import from Brazil; currently, the supply is tight, and the downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the old - new grain gap period, with prices likely to rise, and it is advisable to go long in the short term [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78300 - 78860 yuan, up 390 yuan, with a premium of 240 - 280 yuan; the imported copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [5] - Market analysis: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and there are uncertainties; domestic policies support the market; raw material issues persist, and copper is in a stage of resonance with complex market conditions [6] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper prices is balanced, and it is advisable to participate selectively based on the moving average system in the short term [6] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market prices of battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate are 66200 (-650) yuan/ton and 64500 (-650) yuan/ton respectively, with a stable price difference of 1700 yuan/ton [7] - Market analysis: Cost pressure is increasing, supply is rising (especially from mica and potential increase from salt - lake lithium extraction), and demand is improving but not enough to drive prices up; inventory is increasing [7][8] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to go short on rallies [8] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3160 yuan, the Tangshan operation rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [9] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving, the contango structure is weakening, the valuation is moderately low; cost is dynamic, inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a supply - demand strong pattern [9] - Reference view: After the macro - negative factors are digested, it is advisable to go long on the far - month contract at low levels after May [9] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton; the port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 337.38 million tons and 246.10 million tons respectively [10] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, demand is low, inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [10] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly and rebound at low levels, with limited upside [10] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 773 yuan, and the price of Australian 62% Fe powder ore is 761 yuan [11] - Market analysis: There are both bullish and bearish factors in the iron ore market; supply has a slight decline, port inventory is decreasing, and demand is mixed [11] - Reference view: The short - term trend of the iron ore 2505 contract will be oscillatory, and traders should be cautious [11] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects oversupply; the Fed's stance and domestic policies in China have an impact, and the 55 - dollar/barrel level of WTI has technical support [12] - Reference view: WTI will mainly oscillate between 55 - 60 dollars/barrel [12] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" on rubber prices has been mostly priced in; supply is increasing, and demand may be affected by the US auto tariff [12] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [12] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4700 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5050 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [13] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise operation rate is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing [13] - Reference view: Due to weak demand, the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1413.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [14] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively stable with little production fluctuation, inventory is decreasing, and demand is average with resistance to high - price goods [14] - Reference view: The futures market of soda ash will mainly oscillate widely in the short term [14]
皖证监函2017综述:铜价或宽幅运行为主,X因素主导波动
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 06:46
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to fluctuate widely, with the X - factor driving the volatility. The long - term trend of copper prices is bearish, having completed the entire Kondratieff wave bubble in the first half of 2024. Currently, copper is in a strategic bearish phase, and any rebounds are tactical. The first bearish campaign has ended, and the second bearish campaign window opened in the first half of 2025, centered around the CU2505 - 06 contracts [2][20]. - In May 2025, the market is still within this window. The K - line from March to April has achieved a balance between yin and yang, suggesting that the rebound in the first half of the year has reached a high point. Attention should be paid to the suppression near the 60 - day weekly moving average [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply Side - **TC Decline**: In April 2025, the average TC dropped to around - 32.51 dollars. The continuous decline in TC indicates a severe mismatch between the mineral and smelting ends, which is a sign of an extreme shock in the mineral end and a major head signal for copper prices in the depression stage [4]. - **Production Growth**: From January to March 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 353.6 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of 5%, and the monthly production was 124.8 million tons, with a growth rate of 8.6%. Although the production growth rate has slightly increased, the smelting end is still in a state of serious loss, and the supply contraction expectation is difficult to change in the short term [2][5]. - **Inventory Adjustment**: At the end of April 2025, the total inventory of the three global locations was 41.87 million tons, a decrease of about 11.91 million tons compared to the previous month, mainly due to Chinese factors. The global inventory has entered an adjustment phase after reaching a new high, but the long - term inventory cycle trend is difficult to change [7]. Demand Side - **Improvement in Financing and M1/M2**: In March 2025, the social financing growth rate was 8.4, a month - on - month increase of 0.2, and the financing growth rate rebounded for two consecutive months. M1 increased by 1.5 month - on - month, while M2 remained unchanged. The improvement in M1 is more important, indicating that China has actually entered a new weak inventory cycle [14]. - **Recovery in Automobile and Real Estate**: From January to March 2025, the cumulative growth rate of automobile sales was 11.2, with a month - on - month change of - 1.9, and the automobile sales maintained double - digit growth for two consecutive months. The real estate sales from January to March were - 3, with a month - on - month change of 2.1, showing a marginal improvement [2]. Fed Interest Rate Meeting - The Fed's interest rate meeting in March 2025 maintained the status quo, and the meeting in May is expected to face an uncertain situation. In 2025, the global marginal impact is expected to ease, and Chinese - priced risk assets are expected to perform better [18]. Summary - The long - term trend of copper prices is bearish, and the current second - stage bearish campaign window is centered around the CU2505 - 06 contracts. The K - line from March to April suggests that the rebound in the first half of the year has reached a high point, and the annual high is likely to show a large - scale convergence trend [2][20].
安粮期货橡胶周报-20250507
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 05:56
证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 能源化工小组 研究员:李雨馨 从业资格号:F3023505 投资咨询号:Z0013987 初审: 沈欣萌:从业资格号:F3029146 投资咨询号:Z0014147 复审: 宏观方面:关注"对等关税"发展趋势,若继续保持紧张,则对全球贸易有重大打 李雨馨:从业资格号:F3023505 投资咨询号:Z0013987 综述: 橡胶供给宽松,价格弱势震荡 供给层面: 5 月国内产区全面开割阶段,物候条件较好,同时主产区如泰国、 越南 5 月份量逐步增加,新一年开割预期走强,同时进口量继续呈现同环比增 加趋势,对价格反弹预期有减弱。供应端利空市场。 进口层面:4 月受宏观情绪压制,海外采购节奏放缓下,上游工厂多集中往中国 发运,但有部分大厂船期推迟,环比 3 月增量有限。 需求层面: 5 月份轮胎样本企业产能利用率仍存下行预期。"五一"假期期间, 部分全钢胎及半钢胎企业存检修计划,多数在 3-7 天,将拖拽整体产能利用率 下行。市场需求表现不佳,月初部分物流公司存放假安排,企业库存向下转移受 阻。预计 5 月份整体出货增量有限,部分企业仍存控产行为,将影响整体产能利 用率提升幅度 ...